 It is time to decide who will be playing Super Bowl 56 with this Sunday's conference championships. We got the cheese versus the Bengals, the Rams versus the 49ers to set things up for two weeks from now. With Super Bowl 56 will be decided we're going to break down both those games to get you set. What should be another fantastic weekend of football. This is the FanDuel Live Q&A. That's right here on the FanDuel YouTube, Twitch, Facebook and Twitter channels. Jim Sonnis, I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Genula and Jessica Gridiron. Jessica, of course, is on Twitter at Gridiron and Wine. Jessica, we are on to the conference championships. How are you doing today? I'm doing great and I'm excited. We're coming down to the end. Last week was insane. Let's see if they can top it this weekend. When I was watching that Bill's Cheese game, I was screaming at my television the entire time. I'm not a person who claps during games that find that super annoying, but my hands hurt from clapping after because I couldn't stop myself. Jessica, are you a clapper during games or is that not your style? No, I will do the clapping, yes. I'm like you. I try to keep myself cool, but when I'm more of a yeller, I guess, oh, that's kind of one of my things. Joi, our producer, our video producer, Joi Affleck, also screamed at her TV. Everyone is on board. We're all changing our attitudes except I'm guessing Brandon Gedula did not. He is on Twitter at Gedula13, of course, the managing editor of NumberFire.com. Brandon, I'm assuming you sat there stoically updating spreadsheets and enjoying the action with a light smile on your face. You know what's ironic here? My wife and I, we just got a new TV, so I'm super excited to watch the Super Bowl on the big screen and we actually thought, hey, we'll invite some friends over, host something. And I was like, you know what? I get pretty into playoff football, which is really strange for me. And I kind of want to be able to say whatever. I'm going to be sweating props anytime someone drops a pass or gets a fingertip because of the way I'm going to have some comments. So you know me, this is very unlike me, but there's something about playoff football that every single play I'm in on. So yeah, when people are around, I swear a lot and I try not to. I try really hard not to in those situations because like, hey, we're hosting people and I don't want to like scare them off by shouting obscenities. But you know, sometimes you can't help yourselves. Hopefully we can shout good obscenities this weekend by breaking down of these games. We'll go through our favorite props for both the games coming up this weekend. We'll have our contest once again. We have three units apiece to allocate across the two games. It can be spreads totals. You can split up units however you want. If you want to play along, feel free to put your units in chat. So if you're watching over there in chat, feel free to put whatever you put your three units on across the two games over in chat. We'll take those chats and questions via Facebook, YouTube, Twitch and Twitter. We actually started things off with a question from Grimfan because Grimfan is asking, what do you believe that Bengals have to do to beat the Chiefs on Sundays? Let's start things off here with that Bengals versus Chiefs game. The Chiefs are seven and a half point favorites and the total is 54 and a half. And Brandon, I want to toss this to you. I tell you right now, the Bengals win on Sunday. What do you tell me they did in order to allow that to happen? I've protected Joe Burrow a little bit. I think that's what it's going to come down to for the Bengals to keep this one closed. Is there going to need to score points to keep up with the Chiefs? You can't get sacked nine times and score 35 points, whatever it's going to take to beat the Chiefs. I really think it comes down to something as simple as, is Joe Burrow going to be on his back or is he going to be able to make some throws? Connect with Jamar Chase, CGU Zama, T Higgins, Tyler Boyd, move the ball. So I think that's what it comes down to for me. Okay, so Brandon says protect Joe Burrow. And I think that's an evergreen thing. Just like in life, not even like during game, just like protect Joe Burrow at all costs. Jessica, what about you? I tell you the Bengals win. How did they do so? By being able to keep up with my homes and company. I mean, that's their biggest thing. The good thing is Joe Burrow, he has the arm and he has the weapons to be able to do it. It's just that offensive line if they're able to protect him. And Kansas City's defense isn't really nothing special either. I mean, look at the bills did they still, you know, Josh Allen's still shredded that defense. So it's, it's quite possible for the Bengals to stay up. That's why I actually even kind of liked, I would lean the over in this game too, just cause I feel like this is the championship round. If they're all in it and they want to try and win this game. I mean, we know my homes, they're going to easily put up 30 points. I mean, that's just... When you look at the bills game, you can even look at the first match between these two teams where the Bengals offense lit it up. Jamar Chase, 266, I believe, in that game, just an absurd showing. And we got DJ, say in the Bengals, win 37-31 over time. That's an over. And of course, Bengals money line, Bengals cover and DJ, I like the cover inside out. That's actually one of my units for this weekend is the Bengals plus seven and a half. When I ran my numbers back on Monday, they said this is a five and a half point game in favor of the cheese. And if it's a five and a half point game sitting on seven, I'm not willing to bet that quite yet because I have faith in Patrick Mahomes. I do not like putting myself in position right through it against Patrick Mahomes because that's scary and not fun. But once it got to seven and a half, I was okay with it. So to me, that's my first bet of this weekend is the Bengals plus seven and a half. I think I'm getting two points of value, getting across seven, getting that key number there. I think the Bengals offense can move the football here and can play pretty well. So that's my first read on this game is the Bengals plus seven and a half. Jessica, what about for you? What are your initial thoughts in this game from a betting perspective? Yeah. So what I initially mentioned how I like the over in this game, it's not a bet that I have for this, for our little game we're playing. I actually went with a teaser. I did a six and a half point teaser and I took the chiefs down to minus one and the 49ers to plus 10. So that's, I'm going to do one unit, one and a half unit, sorry, on that teaser for our game. I like it, okay. Because I'm that confident in it, as much as I'm really liking the Bengals and everything, I just, after the performance last week and how great, you know, all you need is to give him a home's 13 seconds and he can make things magic happen. And then it just, it's going to come down to the defense. Kansas City's defense is decent, but it's not elite and Cincinnati's, the Bengals' defense is really nothing special at the end of the day. They're good, but they're not great. So it's possible for Kansas City to put up a lot of points. And a prop bet I like too, that I'm going to do in the game, I'm going to do an anytime touchdown for Tyler Boyd at plus 2. Oh, I talked about that this morning on sports grid. I like it. Yeah. So he's caught a touchdown in four of the last five games. Plus I feel like, you know, he's going to be that buffer where they're going to be, you know, on everyone else. But a last matchup when they did play each other, like you mentioned earlier, Jamar Chase, he caught three touchdowns against KC. So if people are feeling a little, you know, feeling a little risky and you feel like it's a chance, any time he has two touchdowns score for Chase at plus 500. And this really could be the match that it could happen again. Or, you know, I could get that boy touchdown because they're going to be all over Chase this time. Yeah. The one I liked for multi touchdowns was Jim Nixon. He was plus 440 this morning. And I think that one's kind of interesting too. I'm not, I think that's like a, you put down a little bit on that one. That's not a full unit that, but I think that Nixon at two plus touchdowns at plus 440, pretty interesting. Now DJ is asking for an explanation of the game we're playing again. It's game we played the past two weeks here on the show, where each of us has three units we can allocate across the entire weekend. And we can decide how we want to bet them. And then whoever has the most units by the end of the weekend wins Brandon won in the wild card round. I won last week, which means Jessica is guaranteed to win this week and we are all doomed. So congratulations in advance on that one. But basically like we're just letting you know our three favorite bets of this weekend and our level of confidence. So Jessica is that two team teaser, minus one 49ers plus 10 one and a half units on that. That means that that is her favorite bets of this weekend. And Jessica, which, which leg of that do you feel better about? Are you feeling better about the chief side or the 49ers side between the two? Honestly, I feel really good about both. I'm on the Niners as well. Once we get to, once we start talking about that game, but I feel like Kansas city minus going down to minus one. I mean, that should be, that should just be like a shoe in, but you know, I like it. I'm going to Brandon here, Brandon, your thoughts on chiefs versus Bengals. We were talking before about how you might have interest in the spread. Are you going to do it or no? Yeah. So it's not, it's not that common that you and I align on things. Usually we like to bicker and go back and forth. We agree on running backs. We disagree on everything else. Yeah, basically. I think that's what it comes down to usually. But I also like other Bengals plus seven and a half for one of my units for this week. I think getting that extra half points, pretty huge. I'm in a game that might not have any field goals. I just have a lot of touchdowns here, but my model, as I mentioned in each of these weeks in the playoffs has been pretty low on the Bengals simply due to the due to the fact that they overperform their X. They overperform in points per play compared to their expected points per play, but sometimes outliers or outliers for a reason. And I think it's just this speaks to the explosiveness of this offense. And also the sort of the volatility of, you know, taking heavy sacks that kind of ruined your expected points. So even with that, my model, I think you said you have it at five and a half. I have it at six, which is enough for me to take the Bengals plus seven and a half is one of my units for this week. I also have a second unit in this game. And that's going to be on Patrick Mahomes for his over 289 and a half yards. That's minus one 14. I have my homes projected for 295 yards, which is enough to see slight value on that over in this first matchup. Both sides were really past heavy. Mahomes has gone for 404 and 378 is to playoff games, which yes, includes that overtime game. Some some yardage that he churned out on the final 13 seconds in an overtime, of course, but also includes a romp over the Steelers. So I think that they're going to lean on him. That's leaning on Patrick Mahomes feels like the safest thing you can do. So I think he'll get to at least 290 this week. Yeah, I was looking back at his game log and like for whatever reason, I just did not remember. He had four yards in that Steelers game. Like I like they didn't have to turn it off in half time. I mean, I could have. I kept watching because I like needed to do some DFS stuff. But like, I can't believe he did that. And like, they just didn't throw the entire game. But pretty wild there. So I like that one for sure. Brandon's in the Bengals plus seven and a half Mahomes over 289 and a half. Bethany has said nice hat Brandon. And I'm wondering if she might revoke that given that you are going against the Chiefs. I believe her dogs, Mr. Travis Kelsey. So I think you might have lost Bethany. And I hope that you are OK with the consequences of your actions. That's what this is about. Consequences for your actions. Hey, there's a reason I didn't bet the Bengals money line. It's taken the seven and a half here. Fair enough. Anything else you like in this game, Brandon, on this side? So honestly, a lot of the player props for me don't project out that well this weekend, but a few that do actually all come from the Bengals side here. I have T Higgins under five and a half catches is one that I'd be eyeing. I love T, but my projections have been at 5.1 catches this week. He had seven last week, but prior to that one, three, 12, two and five. And we've seen his playoff. Target share dropped to 19%, which is still strong, but seeing CJ Usama, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd still getting work. I think there's a path to a ceiling for him. But I don't think it's going to come from heavy volume. I think it's going to come from splash plays. And so I actually like Tyler Boyd over 39 and a half receiving yards as well. He averaged to 43.7 yards per game in weeks with Higgins and Chase this year since week five. And he's been on, he's been running a routes a lot for this team. 90% route rate in the playoffs. And I like him to pick up some extra volume as a part of this game plan to try to move the ball. So I think he gets the 40 here this week. Yeah. I think that Boyd in general, a bit underrated and that's reflected in Jessica's bet the in time touchdown bet and Brandon here with the yardage bet. And apparently you're okay, Brandon. You're in the clear with Bethany, despite the fact you are betting against her dog's team in a way. Okay. What about you, Jessica? Do you have any props you like in this game? DJ is asking about CJU's Zama props. I don't have any of those personally. You don't have to mention if you don't want anything else in out to you. No. It was a little hard. There's a lot of when I was looking at him earlier, you know, there's all the numbers are kind of a little too high for me as far as like receiving yards as I was looking at even rushing, even though this game, it's, it should be expected for everyone to go off. It was one of those things. That's why I just stuck with any time touchdown. I had the same sentiment that props are pretty high. That's going to come back in our next discussion where we're talking about the Rams 49ers game. There is some stuff there that I think is pretty relevant. I asked about Evan McPherson as well. We like any Evan McPherson props. I've never bet a kicker prop in my entire life. So Evan McPherson is great. I will not be the one betting him this week. I will say that CJU Zama should probably go over three and a half catches, but the juice there is minus 158. So they're not a whole lot of values. So I don't want to say that unless you want to, you know, combine that if you're, if you're doing the same game parlay, something like that. No, let's move on here to the 49ers and the Rams. Right now we have the Rams is three and a half point favorites total is 45 and a half. And Adam thinks the staffer is going to go off. Whereas Bethany thinks that she likes the under and staffer. It's passing yards. And I think unders are in play here. The first of all, Brandon, I want to get your overall thoughts on this game. Rams versus 49ers, anything standing out to you in the traditional markets, just overall thoughts and how you expect this game to play out. So my numbers, it depends on the sample you want to use for the 49ers. If I use like a larger sample with, you know, Elijah Mitchell, Jimmy Garoppolo starting, Debo Samuel kind of playing his current role, they look a little bit better than the past three weeks would indicate. And so it's something I was talking to you about Jim yesterday on the heat check when we were looking at this from a DFS standpoint is I'm not really looking at this 49ers team from a season long standpoint. It's really these past three weeks with Jimmy just not being under percent. And if I drop down their efficiency to what they've been, and this is an expected points play thing per play thing too. It's not just actual results and adjust for opponents. It's still not particularly good. So unfortunately, that's not enough to see any value. I would lean the under, but I don't I'd probably lean. I don't want to lean the under because I think the Rams are going to put up points. And my instinct is that the Rams win this one, but nothing in my data really has a strong take either way. So as far as overall game, you know, bets spread money line over under. I don't really see anything myself. Yeah. I think that I'm also staying away from these. I think that if I were to bet one of the traditional markets, I would go towards the over for the game at 45 and a half. But I don't feel good enough about that to go there. What about you, Jessica? What are your thoughts on Rams versus 49ers part three? Yes, I know, right? 45 and a half. That's something I was looking at, too. I like the over. I'm not making a play on it, but that's definitely what I'd lean. But the play I like in this game is taking the Niners at plus three and a half. And for our game, I'll do a half unit on it. Perfect. You've got to just look at the Niners. There's six and one against the spread in their last seven games. There are also five and one against the spread in the last six games against the Rams. You know, everyone's the talk of the town. Kyle Shanahan owns McVeigh. And it's just what here we go. They beat him twice a season and here they are going for round three. You know, how they how are they going to make it happen? But just a lot of things that you already alluded to branded about talking about, you know, the players and just injuries and concerns and that factor. But the Niners just overall, when you look at them, they're number seventh in the NFL in total offense. They're averaging more than 375 yards per game. They are also averaging 127.4 rushing yards per game, which is top 10. And then again, it just comes down to defense. Defensively, they rank the second best at stopping the run, according to DBOA. In rank six, that's stopping the pass and DBOA. So as hot as those Rams have been during the playoffs, it's true, you just have to go back to this is a rival matchup. Sean O'Han, the guru that he is, he knows this team. He's going to be ready for it even though it's round three and the Rams should be able to come in and be able to win. But McVeigh sometimes just gets a little too ahead of himself and he tries to get these tricky plays. And I mean, just look even what happened last week. He had a he was up and then the Bucks came back and Brady almost, you know, squashed it. So it's just one of those things. I think it's going to be a lot closer than some people might think. Are they going to win? I mean, I don't know, but I think they'll win. Yeah, you get across three. Yeah, you get across three. I think that's a big help there for sure. And I saw a tweet this week. I don't recall who did it. So apologies, but they said inspirational that Sean McVeigh or that Sean McVeigh gets to face his father in the NFC championship game because Kyle Shannon has been his daddy over the past couple of years. I thought that was pretty good too. Okay. So Adam is asking about the Rams backfield. What do you think about Cam Acres splits this week with Sony Michelle? And I actually think that's an interesting angle for this week because we saw Cam Acres lose two touchdowns or two fumbles last week in high level situations. I think that that may not lead to his being benched. However, it increases the uncertainty around his role. And now Darryl Henderson is back as well. There are several factors here that add to some uncertainty around what kind of work Cam Acres will get. So you go over to the rushing yardage or the rushing props and we see that Cam Acres, his rush attempts is a 17 and a half with minus 136 in the under. I want that under for Cam Acres. I think that's a number he could go under realistically. And if you were to keep his typical role, just because, like you said, Jessica, it's tough to run on the 49ers. They could be a bit more past heavy than they were during the regular season against them. That could lead to an under here but also Sony may take some carries. We may see Henderson take some carries. I think there's enough uncertainty there where I do like Acres under 17 and a half rushes. So I'll take that for one unit minus 136. The other one I like is also another under. So I'm going boring for this game. But like we talked about, I think that the way these numbers broke out kind of lend themselves towards that. And the other one I like here is George Kittle under four and a half at minus 102 because you look at the playoffs, Kittle's at four and a half targets per game. If you look at him in the games since he returned from injury that he has played with Debo Samuel and Eli Mitchell both being healthy. Kittle's at five targets per game in that span. And that's pretty easily an under at four and a half. He did have a good game last week. Played pretty well. Brandon, I think that was one of your bets was Kittle under four and a half. And he had four. So he did hit the under there too. I think he goes under once again at four and a half. He could have a great game and still have just four catches. I think that's what's reassuring to me as I'm not betting against Kittle. I'm betting against volume here. I think that's kind of the angle I want to play. So my final two units for this game are Kittle under four and a half receptions at minus 102 Acres under 17 and a half at minus 136. And that's kind of the main thing I see in this game is unders on the player props potentially a game over, but not enough where I'm super enthusiastic about. What about for you, Brandon? What do you see in this game? Yeah, kind of along the same lines when these two teams have played earlier this season, the 49ers have been extremely run heavy, which is what they want to do to begin with to sort of protect Jimmy Garoppolo now that he's hurt. They're doing the same thing. And I think actually in my adjusted numbers in terms of pass rate over expectation, they basically rank like bottom 10 across all teams in all games in terms of pass rate over expectation playing against the Rams this year. And so that leads me to one of the bets I actually made in the wild card round. But Elijah Mitchell and over on his rushing prop, it's 17 and a half this week. It's a minus 102. He's averaged 21.7 carries per game in three games since returning from injury. Had 17 last week, but had at least 21 and seven straight prior to that. Again, the 49ers just want to run the ball. They did that against the Rams this season. The Rams also are faster paced than the Packers. So there should be more plays here for the 49ers. And I think that there's really no way that Elijah Mitchell comes away from this just sort of as an afterthought, especially with Debo Samuel, maybe. And I was practicing, but maybe just not 100%. Maybe they give a few extra carries to Elijah Mitchell. So that's my final unit for this week. And another under I like is Jimmy Garoppolo under one and a half passing touchdowns. That was minus 140 last that looked. But I think there's still value on that if you wanted according to my projections. San Francisco has a 46% pass rate in the red zone over their game since he returned and not many red zone plays. He's going to need some George Kittle or like Debo Samuel yards after the catch I think to throw multiple touchdowns. So I mean, I know it's minus 140 is kind of steep. But again, there's still some value on that. Yeah. I think that that one is enticing as well just because of the way they operate things. And we've seen a lot of Debo, a lot of Eli Mitchell in towards the goal line. Now I got a question here from Adam asking about Eli Mitchell about his health. He sat out practice Wednesday was limited Thursday. That's the same practice schedule he's had since he came back from his knee injury. So to me, I'm not too worried about that. I think he's pretty healthy right now. So I think that Brandon being in on his rushing attempt prop does make a lot of sense. Now, Grim fan is asking about Joanne Jennings, Eli Mitchell props mentioned the Eli Mitchell rushing yardage prop. I think there was also talk about Jennings earlier on because in their first match with this from Kyle, Joanne Jennings had a pair of touchdowns and I think 94 yards. Honestly, a really impressive game. And Jennings is a guy who has earned more playing time this year has gone along because he's played really well. So I think that he's at least worth looking into. So let's pull up the props over here on old Joanne Jennings. His yardage prop is a 23 and a half. That is low. And I think that's low enough for Eli to give it some thought. I will say that at least in the yardage prop, my favorite one is Ayuk over 49 and a half. He's at 68 yards per game in the games he has played with Kittle, Debo and Mitchell since we saw Kittle return from his injury. He goose egged last week. It was not pretty. He had one catch. It was overturned by, he fumbled it, then it was overturned by replay. That ain't great. But in the first game or the week eight team match versus the Rams, 170 yards for Ayuk in that game. Good number of targets still involved in this often. So I do like Ayuk over 49 and a half. I don't know my official bets here for the game, but I do think that's, if I were looking at a receiving yardage prop, either for Kyle or for Grim fan, I think that's where I'd go versus Joanne Jennings. Despite the fact, Jennings is, is legit. And I think it's earned the playing time he has got. What about you, Jessica? Anything else you're seeing in this game? Yeah, actually, one of my, my last last half unit for our game is receiving props. I like Tyler Higbee over 39 and a half at minus 114. Yeah, he's hit that over in the last six games straight. And I feel like he's that perfect buffer because you know, they're all over his other weapons. Cup, Odell, Jefferson, like he's like that guy that can make it happen. So I feel like that's a good one. That'll be a good one to play. Yeah. And we were talking about Jennings scoring twice versus the Rams. Higbee scored twice versus the 49ers in their most recent matchup. So 39 and a half. He's had a really good role. I think underrated role recently. Something that Higbee interested in there. Brandon, what about you? I cut you off. So what were you, what do you, what's seeing out to you? Oh, no, I was just going to say I have Jennings like 80% likely to go over 23 and a half yards. So I think that's a good prop there. Okay. So good fan. And Kyle, if you want access to Joanne Jennings, check out the yardage prop at 23 and a half. Adam also likes Van Jefferson. I will know he's banged up. He is questionable, the knee injury. He rested on Wednesday. It sounds like it was mostly due to rest, but I keep an eye on that. I'm not sure where his health is right now. So I'd be a little bit wary on that one, just because things, you know, not a full health. Bethany is asking about some sleeper DFS plays. She was talking about some Bengals or 49ers other than the main guys. I think it depends on if you count Boyd and Ayuk as being the quote unquote main guys because both those guys on FanDuel do carry lower salaries. Boyd at $5,800. Ayuk down to 56. I think if we count those two, I am in on both. I started off being very pro Ayuk. I'm slowly, slowly coming over and forward. I know. I know. I know. But like that's where I'm at. Brandon, anybody else for you other than the quote unquote main guys here for the Bengals or 49ers? I mean, I would think CJ Yuzama wouldn't count as a main guy because the main guys would be mixing Chase and Higgins. I think CJ Yuzama makes a lot of sense. It's a pivot regardless of what slate you're looking at. Just because tight end is good, but CJ Yuzama's role has been good. He's actually second in the playoffs for the Bengals. So I think that he's a good play here. And I can't imagine he would count as a primary bangle. What can you just throw in Shaded T Higgins by talking about how CJ Yuzama's second in Target Share just rude. Like we don't need to throw unnecessary shade at T. I said he was a I said he was a primary player. I thought it was obvious. Bethany wants us to go deeper than those guys. I don't want to. I don't feel the need to personally. Sorry. I'm not going to talk about Smosh AP. How you check. Yeah. The juice. The juice. There we go. Okay. That's all we have for this. So Jessica, before we wrap up, any final thoughts for you not just on this game for the entire weekend? Anything you're watching for on Sunday? Anything else? Let's see. No, pretty much just the other one that I liked was the over in the Kansas City Chiefs Bengals game. That was the only other other play I really like. Yeah. Going into this weekend. I think that's a pretty good one. What about you, Brett? Any final thoughts for you? That sounds like a great question. I'm curious about Bethany's comment or question is a jumping off point. If you're playing DFS, you will be looking at some underrated plays. Some names that maybe aren't at the forefront of your mind. But you really, even on a two-game slate, you don't have to be playing like Chris Evans. Yeah. Captain America. Yeah. I was trying to think of all the chief's backup tight ends, but. No, great. Don't disrespect Noah. Only if I know a great what? I'll play Noah Gray. Just not a protest for you. You can play Noah Gray. I won't, we'll do a head to head. See how that goes. Noah Gray is better than Blake Bell. The Belldozer there. There's our hot take for the show. Jayrod also asked for the teaser. It was Chiefs minus one 49ers plus 10 was a teaser that Jess got on those two games. That is all that we have here for today. Make sure you check out Jessica on Twitter at gridiron and wine. Check out braided on Twitter. I could do a 13. I am on Twitter at Jimsonus. J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. This is our final preview like this. We're gonna have a lot more good stuff coming up for you before Superbowl 56 and always Tom Vecchia with you on Wednesday's talk NBA DFS. So if you like what you hear, make sure you are subscribed in the fan dual Facebook, YouTube, Twitch or Twitter page notifications as we go live throughout each week. Big thank you to Joy Affleck, our video producer for running the video side of things here today. Thank you, Joy as always. And thank you to everyone for tuning in and good luck with your bets. Good luck with your DFS lineups. Enjoy the football. We'll talk to you once again to get you set for Superbowl 56. This has been the fan dual live Q&A.