 What's going on and welcome to the solo shot. My name is Tom Vecchio. I'm here to break down tonight's MLB slate. Jim is off today, so I'm back. I was here about a month ago. It's gonna be business as usual, going over the three pitchers, the three stacks, some things to look for. 13 games, as I said, it starts at 7.05. We actually have a few weather notes to get to. So let's hop in there because there's a number of different games that are gonna be impacting tonight's slate and as always, I will refer to Kevin Roth on Twitter. I am not a meteorologist. He is, so I'll always be referring to him as I have for many years. This is a solo shot. This is one of the many shows on the Faneville Podcast Network. You can find that anywhere whether it's iTunes, SoundCloud, Stitcher, Google Play, make sure to give it a like, follow, or subscribe on the given platform that is greatly appreciated. And you can follow me on Twitter at dfs underscore Tom. Now, the weather, as I said, is the highlight or the start of today's show just because there's so many different games. Starting off, the Mets at the Pirates has a little bit of weather. That is something to take note of. The Boston at New York game was canceled yesterday. They also have some weather issues today. The big one on tonight's slate is Texas at Toronto. We are interested in the pitching options or the pitching option from Toronto here. We'll get there in a minute. Along with Toronto as a stack in this game could be severely impacted by whether it should be wet there. We just don't know to what extent and how long. Then we have Milwaukee at Cincinnati. There's gonna be scattered thunderstorms. This is also an issue. Looking at some potential pop-ups in Atlanta, it's the summer in Atlanta, we know that should be relatively easy. And then there could be a little bit of rain in St. Louis and in Colorado, which is of course an issue because it's a game at Coors Field. 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I'm gonna be ranking them in a specific order and that actually starts with Robbie Ray as my number one option tonight coming at $9,800 both Ray and Hendricks are both $9,800, a little bit cheaper than Kevin Gossman who is 10,600. Now, as I said, the weather issues in Toronto presents a big problem side because Robbie Ray is in such a great spot. He has brought such a strong level of consistency this year. We're seeing a 32% strike area for whom a career low 6.2% walk rate which if you've been playing MLB DFS for a while you know that Robbie Ray is always a pitcher that has carried around a 30% strike area but the walks for him have always been the issue. The 6.2 walk rate he has this year is his career best. He's absolute looking fantastic. He's coming in with an unbelievable 3.09 Sierra, 3.15X fit. He has a 19.6% home run to fly ball ratio. We know the home runs continue to be an issue for him but the strike area from him we have on tonight's slate is absolutely fantastic. We flip to the Texas Rangers. We know that they are not a strong offense. They come in with a 23.6% strike area that is 13th against left handed pitching this year. Not a super heavy strike out team but there aren't certainly that amazing. They come in with a teammate. So it's being a 144 versus lefties which is 28th in the lead. It's absolutely terrible. We look at their WRC plus again not looking too good coming in at 94 that is 20th in the lead. So Robbie Ray all things considered his matchup, his salary, the consistency that he brings. He's my number one pitcher on tonight's slate if the game plays just because we're dealing with the weather issues for the Texas and Toronto game. Like if this doesn't play we're losing one of the best pitchers on the slate because so many of the other pitchers we can make a case against where Lance McCullers I think he's a solid pitcher. He's $9,700 but there's some inherent danger for him going up against an always powerful white socks lineup. So that's why I'm shying away from him just a bit. Kevin Gospin $10,600 for the San Francisco Giants on the road at visiting the St. Louis Cardinals. Gospin is having another awesome year coming with a 30.5% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, great numbers for him. Also great Sierra from him sitting at 3.31 and a 3.31 exit. Not allowing many homeruns this year at all coming with a 7.5% home run to fly ball ratio it's super, super low. She'd expect some negative regression going back towards the league average at some point for him. But we have seen unbelievable levels of consistency for Gospin really over the past two seasons now. We look to St. Louis a matchup that we're really not particularly worried about when it comes to their overall offensive power but they simply don't strike out a whole lot versus righties this year. The Cardinals have a 21.8% strikeout rate. That's actually the third lowest in the league. So they're very, very disciplined at the plate which in theory can limit Gospin's upside which actually we're shooting for upside but overall the matchup is just so, so easy because St. Louis comes in with the 148 team ice over his righties this year. That's 24th in the league. And then we look at their WRC plus that they're 86th WRC plus which is 26th in the league for St. Louis. So kind of the same situation ish for Gospin and Robbie Ray where Texas strikes out more in the split compared to St. Louis which is why I like Robbie Ray a little bit more. Also Robbie Ray is just a little bit cheaper. Now the issue with Kyle Hendricks here which the same thing I'm gonna say for him is true for a lot of pitchers where he's such a good real life pitcher but his fantasy upside can be limited at times because he's just not a big strikeout pitcher. If we look back at this game block we're looking at one, five, four, five, a high of seven two strikeouts, five, four strikeouts. That's generally where he's sitting and that's due to the fact that he comes in with a very, very modest 18% strikeout rate. He has a phenomenal 4.5 walk rate. He has a solid 4.43 Cere which I think is going to decrease as the season goes on. And this matchup against the Diamondbacks is not something that we're worried about. All those numbers I spoke about for St. Louis they're even worse for Arizona where Arizona as a team is sitting with a 79 WRC plus that is the second worst in the league. That's absolutely terrible and they are dead last in the league when it comes to T Miso versus Reides sitting at 0.129. So I love the matchup for Kyle Hendricks but we really need him to get to the sixth inning and pick up the win, get the quality start points and the win points with having four or five strikeouts in order for him to reach his ceiling. So I love the matchup for him. It's just that he's not a big strikeout pitcher and ultimately I actually don't think that Kyle Hendricks is going to be super popular tonight given the fact that he is $9,800. And then we look to Robbie Ray who is also $9,800 but Robbie Ray has a 30% strikeout rate. So I'm ranking these top three pitchers Ray number one, Gospin number two and then Kyle Hendricks number three. Of course we can make a case for a number of other pitchers. I wouldn't mind a few shares of Charlie Morton tonight. I wouldn't mind a few shares of Marcus Strohman. Strohman is kind of in the same boat as Kyle Hendricks where he's not a big strikeout pitcher but he's on the road in Pittsburgh. It's a good pitchers park. We're not worried about the matchup with Pittsburgh but again, Strohman not a big strikeout pitcher. So the top tier of pitching tonight I want to say is that is very clear. Robbie Ray number one, Kevin Gospin number two and Kyle Hendricks number three. Now as we move on to stacks, we have Coors Field on tonight's slate. When Coors Field is on a slate that I'm talking about I generally try to make things clear. It's Coors Field. I think we know what we're going to be getting from it. We know the potential for run scoring that they have. As I noted, there was just a little bit of weather here. I'm not super worried about it. It should be just some light showers there. It is warm and there is wind blowing out. We're gonna, we see the Dodgers right now with a 6.55 implied run total is absolutely fantastic. The Rockies are sitting here with a 4.95 implied run total. It's Coors Field. You should look to get some exposure to this game as always. I think you should be going along the field. I don't think you need to overweight the field. I don't, if you want to fade Coors Field, that's just a tournament strategy. That's a personal decision. That's something I generally don't do. I always like a little bit of exposure to Coors Field. I think it's very straightforward. But tonight, one of my favorite stacks outside of Coors Field, the Toronto Blue Jays. Now I mentioned that at the beginning we are interested in the pitching option in Toronto along with the Hing options because the matchup for the Blue Jays going up against Jordan Lyles is absolutely fantastic. We look to Jordan Lyles this year and he's not a particularly strong pitcher. He's allowing 1.59 home runs per nine this season overall. He comes on the 4.79 Sierra. He comes with a 4.91 exit. Now the issue with Jordan Lyles, the issues that he has actually specifically with right handed hitters. He's a right handed pitcher but he's showing reverse splits. This year he's actually only allowing 0.90 home runs per nine to lefties. But if we flip to his righty splits, they are absolutely terrible allowing 2.08 home runs per nine versus right handed hitters. And what do we know about the Blue Jays lineup? They often run out seven or eight, nine righties. A seven or eight righties, not always nine righties in their lineup, which means that we're gonna be expecting the Blue Jays to be extremely popular tonight because this matchup is just so, so good. We look to some of his batted ball profile. He's allowing a 37% fly ball rate to righties, a 37% hard contact rate to righties and a 19.4% home run to fly ball ratio. Again, approaching this 40-40 line that I look for when it comes to fly ball rate and hard contact rate in the split for the pitcher. That's how you know that there are going to be a home run prone pitcher. And because he's so bad against righties, we should see Toronto very popular tonight if the game plays due to the rain issues or rain concerns that we have. So this is very clear that the Blue Jays with their 5.64 implied run total are gonna be very popular tonight. It's just a matter of will this game actually play? We look to some of the specific options on Toronto and it's just loaded with power. And we know this, right? We've known this all season about Toronto. Vlad Guerrero coming in with a 354 ISO versus righties. George Springer, of course, a smaller sample size just because he's dealt with so many injuries this year but he has a 295 ISO. Marcus Simeon, a 254 ISO. Boba Shed, a 185 ISO. Randall Britch, a 180 ISO. And then Kavon Vigio, who's often one of their only lefties in a lineup still has a 175 ISO. There are multiple players in this lineup with ISOs over 200. There are multiple players in this lineup with WRC pluses over 130. So yes, we want plenty of exposure to the Blue Jays tonight. They should be one of the top stacks on tonight's slate. I'm gonna say that even including course field, I think that they are the top stack outside of course field tonight. And just because they're matching against Jordan Lyles to so homerun prone is something that we absolutely want to be attacking really at any chance we can get whether it's cash games, whether it's GPPs. I don't think it really matters. I think you should be getting plenty of exposure to Toronto tonight. Next up, take a look at the Kansas City Royals tonight. This might be a stack that goes slightly under the radar but they're going up against Keegan Aitken for the Baltimore Orioles. He's a lefty. This game is in Kansas City. It's not the best hitters park in the world. It's not the worst hitters park. Aitken comes in with a 45.1 innings pitched this season at the largest sample in the world. He has a 21.5% strikeout rate. It's not super high. Not really a dominant shutdown picture that we should be worried about. He has a 15.5% homerun to fly ball ratio. He's allowing a 40% fly ball rate overall. He's allowing only a 32% hard contact rate overall. But this is certainly a picture that has struggled with some home runs to start. I think that we tend to be looking to the Royals. I kind of like them as a salary saving option tonight. They certainly have some power in their lineup. Sal Perez coming in with a 391 ISO in this split. Hunter Dozier has a 169 ISO. Whit Merrifield only has a 146 ISO. He does have a 106 WRC plus. Not a player that always brings a ton of power to your stacks. He has some power but a super low 10% strikeout rate in this split. We know he can get on base. We know he can steal bases and really just a part of the stack overall. Overall, Carlos Santana only has a 143 ISO this season versus lefties. He does have a 133 WRC plus. Hopefully that power will rise as the season goes on throughout his career. He's been in the 170s in this split. So he is hitting with less power this season than he has historically. And then if we look to the Kansas City stack overall, they're very affordable, very, very affordable. Now Santana was dealing with a risk issue before the All-Star break. So that is something to pay attention to. But really this stack is affordable where Whit Merrifield at $3,500 is the most expensive option. So you get Whit Merrifield at 35, Carlos Santana at 34, Sal Perez at 33, maybe take a shot at Hunter Dozier at 2,800 and they are very affordable to fit in your lineups. Now the last stack that I wanna look at tonight would be the Oakland Athletics they are at home. They're going up against Eli Morgan for the Cleveland Indians. Morgan is another young pitcher, only has 21.1 innings pitched at the major league level in his career all coming this season. Modest 22.9% strikeout rate for Eli Morgan, a 4.2% walk rate. Nothing super crazy. He does have a 21.6% home run the fly ball ratio which is worse than the league average. Again, a small 21 innings sample size. We have to take it with a grain of salt. Also, a 13% barrel rate is not good for Eli Morgan but again, small sample size allowing a 55% fly ball rate and a 39.7% hard contact rate. So again, take this with a grain of salt, it's a small sample size but when this situation arises where we have a young pitcher that they look okay, they look great, they look bad, they're all over the place. We are dealing with a small sample size but I'm still gonna be leaning on the team with the hitters that have the power that have the experience at the major league level. And that means going to the athletics with many players in their lineup you can stack many players with ISOs over 200. Matt Olson having a fantastic year with a 263 ISO, Seth Brown, a 226 ISO, Sean Murphy, a 224 ISO and Ramon Laureano with a 212 ISO. Jed Lowry, 177, he's a little bit cheaper, not bringing as much power but we have multiple players in this lineup we can be targeting. Even 20 can't bringing next to no power but he does have a 1 to 14 WRC plus and more importantly, he can help you round out an athletic stack if that's where you're looking to go. They're not super expensive. Matt Olson is $3900, certainly the most expensive option but we are looking at multiple options in the low 2000 range or a high $2000 range. Sean Murphy is $2,500. You could certainly look to add him in there. Matt Chapman didn't touch on him but he's 3,300 having a little bit less power this year than he has in years past but certainly a player you can trust in a stack. So Toronto I wanna say is very, very clearly the best or my favorite stack on tonight's slate outside of course field I should say. My favorite stack outside of course field I think attacking Jordan Lyles is something that we're gonna be seeing plenty of pitchers doing. Excuse me, attacking Jordan Lyles as a pitcher is something we should be seeing plenty of players doing just because there's so much power in that Toronto lineup. I think that it's very clear we should see Toronto as one of the most popular options. I'm looking to Kansas City as a bit of an under the radar stack. I also like the salary relief that they bring. I think you can pair them off nicely with some more expensive stacks. Now, the final three things to look at on tonight's slate. Number one, this is something that I don't normally do but Julio Arias for the Los Angeles Dodgers. They are at course field. Taking a pitcher from course field is not something that I normally do but I kind of like going to Arias tonight. He's $8,900, which I think is a great salary for him. Hopefully we're gonna be seeing him not as popular just because he's a pitcher at course field, which is good. I think he's in the mid range of these pitching options which could have him go a bit overlooked, which is good but more importantly, Colorado, they are not good, they're not good this year overall but they're also not good versus lefties. So if I'm looking to go, obviously a tournament only strategy, I'm looking to go to Julio Arias at $8,900 tonight going up against the Rockies. Again, a strategy only for tournaments taking a pitcher at course field always has inherent danger but the performances that we've seen from Arias this year combined with the fact that we are not seeing significant power or consistency from the Rockies this season has me a bit interested. So I'll have a few shares of him in tournaments. It's gonna be just a couple but I do think that that is a pitcher that you can go to tonight if you're looking to differentiate in tournaments. Another stack tonight that I actually have a little bit of interest in is the Seattle Mariners. Now, everyone say, oh, the Mariners aren't good. Why would we go to them? They're on the road. They're going up against Andrew Heaney for the Los Angeles Angels and Andrew Heaney for as much upside as he brings with a 28.5% strike rate which is very solid. We've seen him at this level in years past. Ultimately, I think he's just a very, very average pitcher. He's allowing 1.64 homeruns per nine this season. Everyone's gonna look at his, some of his peripheral stats and see, oh, he has a 3.71 Sierra, 3.85 X-Fip. We see all these things. They look good. He has a 43.7% fly ball rating and has a 35% hard contact rate overall. The homeruns continue to be an issue for Andrew Heaney this year specifically against right handed hitters allowing 2.04 homeruns per nine. Listen, a 44% fly ball rate versus righties is not good and it's clearly getting to him with those over two homeruns per nine. So going to the Mariners, going to some of their hitting options on the right side is something that I have a bit of interest in that would probably start with Mitch Hanniger. I think that's a solid option to be going to. We do see Kyle Sear, although he's a lefty, he does come with a solid 205 ISO. I think you can be going to him, but really Mitch Hanniger I think is a solid spot to start if you're looking for another under the radar stack. Maybe throw in some Dylan Moore in there. Maybe if I'm just talking myself into this then as the day goes on I'll get away from this but I do like Seattle, the homerun upside is clearly there for them against Andrew Heaney. So we covered an extra picture I like with Urias, an extra stack that I like with Seattle and then finally homerun call for tonight that is going to be Marcus Simeon for the Toronto Blue Jays. Hopefully this game does play because they're in such a great spot going up against Jordan Lyles. Again, Lyles is allowing over two homeruns per nine against right handed hitters this year. Marcus Simeon is bringing play of power with an over 40% fly ball rate versus righties this year. This is something that we absolutely want to be capitalizing on tonight. We want to be stacking Toronto tonight. We want to be stacking them any way you possibly can, any way you can possibly afford them. I really think they are going to be a fantastic stack on tonight's slate. So we have some weather to pay attention to as the day goes on. There's a little bit of showers in Colorado. The main issue is with this Toronto and Texas game because we like Robbie Ray and because we like the Toronto stack so much. All right, so that does it. I will be back at 4pm for the Q&A. Go over any questions once we get some confirmed starting lineups. We'll run through some stacks for that. As always, this is one of the many shows on the Fandu podcast network. You can find it anywhere where there's iTunes, SoundCloud, Stitcher, Google Play. Make sure to give it a like, follow or subscribe. You can follow me on Twitter at DFS. I'm Sport Tom and until next time, good luck in your contest.