 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of TheAxisTrader.com. We get up to show hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a great trading week. We'll talk about the overall actions, overall ramifications, all that good stuff that comes with, you know, comes with technical analysis. And I think a lot of people that weren't on board with technical analysis via, if you're only experienced with trading is through social media. Some people say, well, technical analysis, it's BS and all that stuff. Well, I guess, you know, I guess it was just, you know, it was just inevitable in just a coincidence that stocks prices started imploding and we lost a 50-day moving average. So, but again, that's just another time, another place for discussion. If you are brand new to the channel here, guys, welcome aboard. You know, like, share, subscribe to it, right? We'll try to give you 15 minutes each evening of unbiased technical analysis based on the market that we have and not the market that we want. So let's talk about the overall view. If you've been watching this broadcast just for the last month, right, you kind of know what happened. It was so innocent and you could quickly see how the market just turns on a dime. We've been hugging this massive, massive trend line about the 20-day moving average since January the 11th when the Q's reclaimed the 50-day moving average. And we had a 40% rally in the market and slowly but surely things started happening. We lost the 20-day moving average and we started building below the 20-day moving average. And again, if you are brand new to trading or brand new to the channel, the whole premise of the PS60 theory is stocks trade from supply to supply. But when they start breaking down, they start trading from demand into demand. So when we started building below the 20-day moving average, that was my first video that I put out and say, Hey guys, I'm not saying to be cautious, I'm not saying to be worried, but be a little cautious, right? Usually when we start building below supply, you're probably going to get to the next demand zone. And they said, look, I don't want to put the cart in front of the horse, but this is a real possibility. And the majority of people turn around and go, it's not a big deal, buy the dip, bro, buy the dip. Okay, cool. So we lost the 20-day moving average and for the next three, four days we went sideways. And ultimately we started getting hit into the 50-day moving average. And then all of a sudden going from be a little bit cautious, now, hey, the 50-day moving average is real. And if it gets violated, again, look it back at December 2022, it could be a problem. Just buy the dip, bro, cool. So here we are, right? Here we are four days later, five days later, we are building below the 50-day moving average. And unless you haven't been trading for the last four or five days, you know exactly what's been happening, okay? Stocks have been slowly liquidating, okay? And that's what it is. You've seen some incredible moves to the downside. We talked about a handful of names, the index prices, the ETF pivots. Apple, we talked about, you know, Apple we talked about on Wednesday's nights video. You know, that's 76.50, you could see what happened. Roblox, we talked about on Wednesday nights video, right, below the earnings low. Look what happened. DoCN, these are all great swings, you know, swings I had the two, three days. DoCN, we talked about the earnings low. This one happened. Snapchat, we talked about the earnings low. It took six days, but finally got a dollar in change out of this thing. So the market is slowly but surely performing technical damage below the 50-day moving average. The only way you can get bullish, right? You can get absolutely bullish is if the market starts climbing, gets exhausted, starts climbing back and reclaims the 50, and right now the 50-day moving average is somewhere around 370 on the queue. So you could tell we're 12 points away from the 50-day moving average. Now keep this in mind. This is where I always reiterate this point. 85% of 2022 was sell biased, right? The other 15% were dead cat bounce. Really days that the sellers has got tired for that specific day and the stocks that got murdered went up a dollar, went up a dollar in change, and then two days later they turned around and started taking out the lows. That's exactly what happened with a lot of names today. You know, stocks got killed this week. This scoreboard is really not going to paint the picture. If you look at the indexes, all three benchmarks were down 2% plus, but the most important part is how they were getting liquidated. It's all at one point. Once you hit Thursday going into Wednesday going into Thursday going into today, they were just throwing stocks out at any prices. And when you look at names, the biggest names that make up the mega cap world, right? Look at Tesla, right? Look at Tesla. Tesla lost the 50-day moving average. Guys, remember that video I made? Guys, if Tesla takes out the 50-day moving average, it's going to have a problem. So the next day, obviously, went up three points. People yelling, idiot. Okay, idiot. Yada, yada, yada. Here we are, right? Tesla broke down below 270, you know, stock went to 212 today. Okay, that's the power of the 50-day moving average. What you could see here, even when it was below the 50-day moving average and that trend was lower, you had spikes, right? You had random spikes. Random spikes ultimately to go down. Random spikes ultimately to go down. And today it wasn't even a spike, but at least it went off its lows. Same thing with names, you know, like Amazon. Amazon had actually great numbers. You guys remember, had great numbers, and look what the stock did. Again, so they're selling off not only stocks that missed their numbers. They're selling off stocks that hit their numbers. Look at Google, for example, right? Look at Google. Google looked like it was holding up, holding up, holding up, and today it got hit. And the only reason it got saved was this linear regression line. So you're seeing a lot of names. And the most untouchable one, NVIDIA, who still has earnings going to next week finally lost its 50-day moving average. We had a nice little pivot on NVIDIA today. Stock, to its credit, definitely rallied way off its lows. And now the catalyst, its earnings, I believe it's next week or the week after. I have to check the calendar. But that's kind of where we are right now. So if you watch this broadcast and turn around and said, right, you're having a different view of the market today than somebody that said, oh, wait a minute, maybe it does make a little bit of sense. Above the 50-day moving average is bullish. Below the 50-day moving average is bearish, right? And kind of here we are. And again, remember, the market is not going to go down every single day. It's impossible. The worst bear markets, again, we're not calling this a bear mark. I'm just using it as an example. But the worst bear markets in the world, whether it was 2022, 2007, 2008, right? After 9-11, it still gave really aggressive moves to the upside. It really did. And those days, like I said in a Wednesday's video, you have two choices. You could either play the dead cat balances, but that's what they are. They're dead cat balances. Their stocks, they usually would go up $2, $3, $4, $5 on a bullish sentiment. Now they're going up $0.50 a dollar, which is like pulling teeth. And every single down tick of the future hits the stock down $1. It's not the easiest game to play. Or if you're a trend trader, and I believe I try to instill that psychology for everybody in the webinar, beat the trend. Don't go against the trend. Be the trend. Or you could leave those days alone, see what you could get, maybe get some rejections, maybe get a little bit of bounces, whatever the case may be, and wait for the trend to resume in that direction. Here's kind of where we start the week, right? Whether you appreciated kind of the amount of respect the 50-day moving average held had before it broke, or now you're just kind of in Nolmian's land, you can still make positive decisions, make positive choices to kind of protect yourself going into Monday. What's done is done. What's done is done. The NASDAQ, the Qs have literally gone from 374 to 354 in six days, right? Somebody's going to turn around and say, well, the market is oversold in. Guys, we are up 34% for the year still. How could the market be oversold? Just think about that for a second. Take a step back and turn around and say, the market's up 34%. How can we be oversold? Doesn't make any sense. Okay, is it possible we get a one or two-day debt cat rally next week? Yeah, it looks like that way, right? It looks like that way. I wouldn't be surprised Monday or Tuesday we get a rally back into the five-day moving average, but that's where the five-day moving average. This is where you want to sell stocks. This is where you want to establish a short position in the five-day. As we all know, when the five-day moving average is good on the upside, right, it keeps on holding and bouncing, keeps on holding and bouncing. Well, look at the downside. Look at this orange line, right? Look at this orange line. Look what happens when it hits the orange line, right? Orange line sell, orange line sell, orange line sell, orange line sell. You get the point here, right? Orange line sell, orange line sell. So what we want to see next week, and again, it might take a day or two, we want to see the market rally back into the five-day, and if it gets rejected off the five-day, that's where you want to establish a position for the next leg down. Because again, until we start breaking the cycle of lower highs and lower lows, and that's exactly what we're doing, we're going to continue to build below the 50-day moving average. And it's very, very important to understand that. If you're holding a book, if you're holding investments, again, you don't need to be a helpless lamb, you know, deer in headlights. Short some ETFs against your book, short some Qs, short some spies. Do something proactive that if this sell-off, right, if this sell-off is going to prolong a week, two weeks, two, three months, who knows? We don't know. We can't see the future, right? At least your book is protected. Your money is safe, not sitting there and bleeding every single day and hoping the God of the market eventually stops going down. Eventually it will. You know, history has proven that. But it really does show you the importance of technical analysis. I've been beating down the throats of anybody who would listen to the importance of technical analysis, and now you have two people kind of going into Monday. And they were prepared for the 50-day breakdown when we short the market or the people who sat there and go, buy the dip, bro, buy the dip. And here we are. So going into Monday, look, I think we could have one or two days of two things happening. I think we're going to enter a stalemate come Monday or Tuesday, which basically means I think there's a shot the market attempts to rally in the next day or so. Again, the overall trend is still down. And I'm obviously going to be looking for names. I'll give you guys some names that I'm watching this week. But I think there could be a stalemate. Some stocks could be up. Some stocks could be down. But ultimately what I'd like to see happen this week is for us to rally into the five-day moving average, get rejected, establish a short position there. And if we start rolling over, again, the trend will continue. So we talked about a whole bunch of names this week, key levels, Apple, Roblox, Snap, DoCN, Potato, Potato, Tomato, Tomato, whatever it is, we covered a lot of ground. I'm going to give you guys some names that I'm watching for this week. Again, do they have to confirm? They don't have to confirm. Nothing has to happen. But I say in every single video, right, isn't it most important just to be prepared? And that's exactly what we want to do. We want to be prepared. So let me give you guys some names. Again, they don't necessarily have to confirm for a Monday session. But let's talk about some names, right? Look at Disney's chart. It might be a little bit later in the week. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't. But look how many times Disney has held the bottom channel here. Guys, take a look at this thing. Look how many times it's held the bottom channel here. Eventually, the next time through this bottom channel, Disney could start a two-three-day decline if it gets below. Again, it's still a little bit of ways. But I'm watching Disney this week. If it starts getting below this channel here, this thing can snap here. Look at a name like FTNT, right? And I know I'm starting to give you guys some earnings low swings that we've been doing. That's one of my favorite setups. I've been doing them for years. Again, this week, with this week, we had Roblox. Snap actually started last Friday. I finally closed it out today. DOCN, I started on Wednesday. These are all earnings low. So basically, a stock blows up in earnings, goes sideways. Once it starts losing its earnings lows, it starts going a two-three-four-day decline. So let me give you guys a couple of names that I am watching for this week. Look at FTNT, right? It got blown up on earnings. It went up a little bit. Now it's slowly coming down. I'm watching the earnings lows on FTNT. If this thing starts losing the earnings lows, this thing could start a two-three-four-day decline, definitely watching that. Donut, Krispy Kreme donut. Again, same thing here. Again, it probably doesn't confirm in the next couple of days. But guys, set an alert. That's the whole point. Keep setting alerts for things just because they don't confirm on a specific day. It doesn't mean they won't in the future. I'm watching Krispy Kreme donuts as well for a potential earnings low push as well. A stock like IPG, everybody see the theme? Earnings lows. IPG looks good as well. There's actually one name. A couple of names actually look good. Let me give you guys one name to the upside in case we rally. Look at HR Block. Like an HR Block. HR Block has actually good earnings. It's just consolidating and flagging higher. Keep an eye on this thing of earnings. If it starts taking out its earnings highs, what's the opposite of earnings lows? Maybe this thing goes on a couple of day run. But it's going to be very, very tough guys and stay long anything. Because again, no matter how strong the stock is, if 10,000 stocks are taking out lows, eventually the buyers are going to get frustrated. They're going to get jammed up and eventually they will leave and bids will leave with them. All you guys who are in the webinar, guys, again, congratulations. Great, great work this week. Great, great work this week. I know a lot of you guys took advantage of the last couple of days to taking advantage of the price that we provided to hang out in the webinar. You kind of already see after a couple of days the power of the pivot. Pretty damn good. So I look forward to working you guys as well. But make sure this weekend, guys, take a deep breath, relax. Do something nice for yourself. Summer is in its last inning. We have about seven, eight months of nasty weather ahead of us. So we have about three, four solid weeks of good weather. Be a better friend to yourself. Do something nice. Make sure you enjoy life. Make sure you smile every day. Make sure you do something that's going to uplift another human being, whether it's a smile, a nice gesture, or doing something selfless. But it doesn't cost you anything perhaps somebody to make you feel good. Guys, have a great night. God bless. Have a stay weekend. And God's help. I'll see you on Monday. Take care.