 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Axis of Trader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is having a great start of their weekend. Hopefully you guys will have a tremendous amount of rest. Stock market is absolutely nuts. Let's go back three weeks ago, right? Three weeks ago, David Tepper, founder of Apollosa Capital Management. This is, I'm talking about one of the most aggressive bulls in the history of Wall Street. The only other bull I can remember going, if all you guys who've been trading for a long, long time was this guy named Joe Patapaglia and Abbey Joseph Cohn, used to be the chief financial officer of Goldman Sachs. They're like the biggest bulls in the world. David Tepper three weeks ago came out and he said, this is the biggest bubble, right? The biggest misappropriated price action for the stock market since the dot com era. This is three weeks ago, okay? Warren Buffett arguably one of the most brilliant value investors. I think, again, I think the word investor now these days versus investor from 50, 60 years ago is a little bit different. Again, it's a different game. Trading, investing, everything in between has completely changed. This isn't 30 years ago that the same principles apply. Just not. A lot of people may think that trading, investing is the same from 30 years ago, but it's really, really not. There's so many different dynamics have changed. The technology has changed. Sentiment has changed. Rationale, obviously what we're seeing has completely changed. The people who wrote books on trading psychology 20, 30 years ago, they're almost obsolete yet. There's some principles that, of course, remain the same. The patients, the methodical planning and all that good stuff, absolutely. But because of technology, because of so many different macro events and how that technology plays out, the game has changed. I mean, I was a completely different trader 10 years ago than I was 20 years ago, okay, and completely different than I am now. So everything involves. And I think the people who had the really, really strong opinions and voices, they had great feeling of the tape of the environment years ago, but it changes. Warren Buffett, again, sold the airline stocks literally at the dead bottom three weeks ago. And again, arguably the most important value investor of all time, okay, sells at the bottom. Again, was he wrong? Well, look at the math. So you're looking at a market that three weeks ago, the biggest bull, one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street was completely negative, obviously wrong. Warren Buffett sells airlines at the bottom, obviously wrong. You have 40 million unemployment, the most irrational stock market. This is three weeks ago. Everybody was wrong. I have friends of mine for the last two, three weeks. And these are the guys, you know, these guys have been trading with for years, you know, 15, 20, 25, 30. These guys, most of these guys are clueless right now, okay, they started shorting the market, they got killed, they got long the market, just to make back their losses and they cut themselves off right when they got back their money to see the market go go even more. So again, this type of tape, if you're looking from the macro point of view and you're trying to put an overall macro opinion on it, it's a very, very tough game to play. It really is. I think the day-to-day aspect is just marvelous. And I don't say that in a good way. I say that in the most surprising and shocking way, like literally anything can happen. Like literally anything can happen. If you told me a month ago, we would have the biggest bulls selling the market, right? Selling the market, 40 million unemployment. Unfortunately, the horrific murder, and that's all you can call it, a Floyd protest, some peaceful, some rioting COVID. Does anybody even still remember that COVID is a real thing that was still kind of locked down? I know some states have opened up yesterday, Governor Murphy from the state of New Jersey, where I'm from, extended house arrest basically for an extra 30 days. So again, COVID, if anybody still remembers, is still real. The economy is still messed up. And if you look at the final numbers yesterday, I looked at it this morning. I woke up 6.30 in the morning. I work nonstop. Like literally, I look at so many charts, especially on the weekend, not necessarily for ideas for the week, but just kind of get in a sense of what's what. And I looked at so many charts and I looked at the final scoreboard and it was staggering that that was up almost 7% of the week, right? The Nasdaq, the cues that lagged, right? That literally lagged. They were up 3.5% for the week. If you look at the price action of a lot of beta names, they didn't participate. We'll get to that in a second. If they did participate, it wasn't tradable. Okay, we'll get to that in a second. But I think the biggest shock came from Friday. If the bulls needed any more ammunition, if they needed any more fuel to the fire, you got a made non-farm jobs report of an expansion of an uptick of 2.5 million jobs completely came out of left field and what is happening in the world right now, the market absolutely exploded. The Dow at one point was up over 1,000, closed up 800 or so, just an absolute amazing, amazing week for the bulls. And if you look at the biggest catalyst for the S&P and the Dow, look no further than Boeing. And by the way, somebody on, I think it was on StockTwits said, hey, Dan, don't forget, watch Boeing this week. Okay, because 150 points and 41% move from last week is not enough. Oh, I am watching Boeing, just not the way they're watching Boeing. So, okay guys, watch Boeing this week. Anyway, so, I mean, look, when you get a 41% move in Boeing in one week, obviously that's going to put a really, really big imprint into the Dow, into the S&P. But regardless of the fact, just an unbelievable job by the bulls. And again, if you look at the scoreboard where we are right now, again, cues are at all time highs, right? We took out that 236 level, right, 236 level, that was on February, right? February the 20th, we went as high as 240, so the cues are breaking out. If you look at the Russell, Russell, again, big, big gap up into supply, again, kind of got rejected into supply and rolled over. That's a little bit of a bearish view going into next week. Again, when I say bearish, I don't want to use the word bearish. I want to say at least sell side for a possible back test just to kind of get its feet. You know, it's a little bit over extended here. If you look at the SPY, again, the spies were up nearly 5% for the week. Just again, same kind of chart, same view as the IWM. You kind of got this move into supply, into the linear regression line, a little bit of an inverted hammer. So again, I wouldn't be shocked. Nothing would shock me, but I wouldn't be surprised if we do get a back test Monday and Tuesday into the rising 5-day support. It doesn't mean stocks won't go up, because again, if you did any type of chart work this weekend or are planning to, you'll find 400 stocks that you could put on your trading watch list. 500, right? There's so many. So it's very, very important right now that you take the stocks that you really like to trade and are very, very comfortable. And just focus on this. Again, you can't be in 3,000 stocks at the same time. Again, at least I can't. So I think the market is incredibly bullish. Can we get a little bit of a back test in the indexes for the first part of the week, Monday and Tuesday? Absolutely. I don't think there's going to be anything substantial. We're not talking about any Armageddon, you know, the market equity prices, destruction, which is, again, when you have a big, especially almost 8% move in the down, 5% move in the S&P, it's logical just to get a little bit of a back test, especially when you look at the technical analysis part of this whole equation into the linear regression line, an inverted hammer, both on the spies and on the IWM. So, crazy Friday. Friday was probably considering where the market was and what the market did. Friday for me was probably the most inactive day I can remember, probably in the last 10 years, right? And that's just the fact. And it's kind of an eye-popping statement considering what the market did. Now, when you look back at what my game plan was on Thursday night, if you go back to Thursday night's video, you kind of understand why. So, Thursday night, we talked about how there was a lot of red flags in beta, okay? Despite the market rallying, and again, you can make a very, very clear case that Boeing was the market, right? On Thursday, on Wednesday, ever since it broke out off that 156 channel. But for me, I looked at beta on Thursday night, and I had a game plan sell beta, okay? Sell beta on Friday. There was a lot of red signals for me. And I said, you know what? These things are just not rallying. They're very, very weak. They can't rally with the strength of the market. There's a lot of undertones in the strength of the market considering Caterpillar and Boeing were really the really big dominant forces behind the move, quote, unquote, of the indexes. So I had a very, very specific plan. And I loved Netflix short. I loved shop short. I liked Amazon short. I liked Roku short. And a lot of these names were playing out the same way. Zoom, I liked on the short side. So we gapped up on Friday ahead of those numbers, right? I said, well, this is perfect. You know, this is absolute perfect. And if the market, you know, these stocks go into supply, okay? If they go into supply and they go green to red and start taking out Friday's ranges, they're going to be shorts. And if you look at what happened to beta pre-market, they got murdered, okay? Absolutely murdered. I liked, for example, Netflix below 11. Pre-market, the damn thing, went to 404, okay? I liked shop, for example, 425, excuse me, 725, it went pre-market to 702, Amazon, the same thing. And so like stocks just got murdered. Like everything was down $10, $20. And I'm like, wow, this is completely... Well, I'm completely screwed here because again, 90% of my game plan for Friday is gone now. It's completely gone. Now, again, before you turn around and say, well, again, you can buy them, right? If the market is surging, you can buy them. Of course you can, but keep this in mind. When a stock runs back up on a dead cat bounce, you don't have an edge because you don't know technically where the bounce is supposed to come because they're, again, they're just trading in between channels. Unless the stock gets into a channel, tests the channel, and then turns around, at least you have a course of an exit strategy. When you have most names bouncing off levels, random levels, okay? You don't know where the bounce is going to stop, start, or you don't know where the bounce is going to stop. So 90% of my game plan was done, right? Completely done. I really love the beta to the downside, and they all went without me 8 o'clock in the morning. Literally everything was down $15, $20. So I was sitting there and I was like, wow, this absolutely completely sucks. So I had a choice, and this is where I think experience is incredibly important for traders. I think a lot of people, and when you're new, you're kind of going to understand what I'm saying. When you see the scoreboard light up, especially after the jobs number, and you see the Dow up 600, up 700, up 800, something that every trader tries to fight every single day, every single week, every single month is the idea of FOMO, right? The fear of missing out versus reality. And unfortunately, when your game plan gets absolutely blown up, especially pre-market, there's nothing you can do about it. You have a choice. You can start trading random stocks that 99.9% you probably do not want, because again, you don't have a track record with these names. You don't know their tendencies. You don't know their true measured potential. Again, I know Amazon's true measured potential. I know Tesla's true measured potential. I don't know the measured potential, for example, on like US Steel, right? Or Canada Goose. We'll talk about Goose in a second. It's actually a nice pivot on Goose. But again, that's the choice. And unfortunately, a lot of new traders, if you're coming in flat, and again, if you have positions overnight and Friday, congratulations, for example, Mike Crosslin has, I think, his first to second biggest day ever. He had some pretty good overnights and did pretty well with them. But again, if you are not coming in with overnight exposure and you're not getting gaps, you have that choice. Either sit it out as a professional adult, right? A responsible professional adult, or trying to play catch up with B, C, D, G, F, and Z type of stocks. Again, more chances than not, they're going to trade within a 20, 30 cent range the whole day, compared to like a Tesla or Amazon or NVIDIA that could explode and give you a macro expansion channel. So I had that choice, okay? And I was sitting there watching the market, and I was sitting there and I'm like, nothing is rallying. Like literally, none of my stocks are rallying. Again, I trade primarily the same names every day. Tesla, NVIDIA, Netflix, right? Roku, Beyond, Facebook, App. Like they're not rallying, they're just not doing anything. Like again, what am I supposed to do? And at the end of the day, I had two scalps. And ironically, the two scalps that I had, I made some money on Tesla on a, you know, not a great pull, but a pull before it kind of turned around. And then I scalped some bone. We'll talk about the pivots in a second to the downside. But again, I think the most important part of my day on Friday, and I think, again, what we talk about all the time, some days you really have to say, look, forget about the scoreboard. We've been talking about the irrelevant part of the scoreboard for years. You have to make that understanding and really connect the dots that certain days the market is just not going to give you the freedom to do whatever you want. Okay, most days, beta, 99% of the time, beta is expanding up, down. They're going to do something, right? And you have to come to a responsible conclusion that, you know what? Mentally, it's much easier for me to kind of wait, pick from my spots. If they come, they come. If they don't, they don't and kind of go to the next day. As far as I'm concerned, again, I could be wrong. There's no such thing as one day in the market that is going to make your career. But if you trade improperly and you trade outside of your comfort zone and you deviate from what you do day in, day out, all the time and prostitute your money, you're going to, number one, really start to make really bad habits. And those bad habits are going to be exaggerated over and over again. And you're going to find yourself in a very, very ugly situation that you're going to chop yourself up on days that you really should not be trading because your process is not being hot spotlighted. And unfortunately, my process or at least my stocks were not being highlighted. They just weren't. They weren't weak enough to confirm downward channels that they created pre-market and they definitely weren't strong enough to make upward bias channels. For the exception of Apple and NVIDIA that I apologize for the people in its private Twitter feed, I just completely forgot to put them into those channels. Folks in the live webinar, they traded NVIDIA, they traded Apple to the upside. There was nothing else out there, Amazon also, Amazon I put into the feed. There was nothing else out there that was even trying to move the needle. And again, that is where the patience comes in. That's where your responsibility to your trading account is very, very important. And as far as I understand, Monday is a new day, right? So Monday, you know, like I said personally, I thought the value for me on Friday, for me personally, the value was like 1%. And you know what? I'm okay with that. And that's the most important part. I feel very, very strong that some of the attributes that I try to instill, especially in the traders in the live webinar, is the ability to quickly accept the fact that it's okay not to trade. It's okay to sit on your hands only, okay? Only when your process is not being completely in full bloom. And that's what builds maturity. That's what slowly but surely takes away the FOMO. And once you start realizing, hey, you know, I'd like to trade, but I don't need to trade, this is where you start building really good habits. And eventually when you get a value day, okay? And most days are value days that that's the day that you are going to trade with a lot of conviction, with a lot of confidence, and you're going to really step on the gas with extreme prejudice. And that's the name of the game. Learning how to step back, learning how to get aggressive, and understanding when you do have the advantage. So if you look at Friday's pivots, again, not a lot, right? Not a lot. Here is my pre-market, here is my pre-market. And again, this is before everything washed out. I said 90% of beta names are either red or barely green despite the gap up. So I said, okay, my thought process from the night before is on point. It's perfect. I think if we get a sell-off, we're going to hit these things. And I said, I'm going to give the bears every opportunity to play out on the first candle. So obviously wishing everybody a good day. And unfortunately, like I said before, we didn't get the opportunity. Everything got killed prior to the jobs number. We saw literally everything. Amazon was down 20. Shop was down 25. Netflix was down 11. I mean, everything just got killed. So my game plan was nuts. And basically I said 90% of my game plan is gone. Just like that, beta-murdered pre-market going back to bed. I was obviously joking. But again, there was some names that I did like. They did okay. They did okay. Again, it wasn't anything crazy. Roku 10130, 101 if it builds below can flush. Again, here's the first pivot on Roku. Again, not enough juice. So here's the 10130 we talked about at the night before off that 10150 area. Again, 1 to 100. That's it. 1 to 100. A dollar move in Roku. Again, nothing really there to talk about. Again, not necessarily enough strength. Not necessarily enough weakness. AAXN 9550 needs to build. Again, AAXN had a really, really big run this week. This is the old Taser. Obviously, stun guns. Stun guns. What is it? All these body armors and stuff. Obviously to play on the fortunate riots. And I said 9550, 96. It went to 97. Okay. It went to 97 before reversal. 2.0, 188 if it builds below can flush. And again, I was just trying to stay with the theme that I wanted to see the names play out prior to everything flushing really, really hard. And again, you could see it. Here was the 188. It just got killed before it went to 182 pre-market. Again, there's nothing you could have done with this trade unless you chased it down pre-market. Again, I got completely negated on the trade. Tesla, we actually got a sneakier pivot on Tesla. I still like Tesla here going into this week. Again, needs to really confirm macro numbers. Facebook, I was talking about the downside. Never got there. Goose did all right. Canada Goose did all right. 25, 85, 26 needs to build. Congratulations for you guys who did catch Canada Goose. Here's the 25, 65, 26. And Canada Goose actually went to 27.50s. Again, great product, really, really great product. Amazon, again, I was looking to the downside 24, 35 obviously never got there. And then we had a pivot back to the upside on that. So nice move on Goose. And then I was looking to the upside. And this is kind of my point of the stocks that I was trading. They weren't, I didn't want to short them because it was way too down, way too much. And then I said, well, let's start looking to the upside. All right. So I started looking to the upside. All right. Let me look at beyond. BYND, 138 needs to build. 138, it goes to like 137.69 and sells all $4. So again, I'm completely getting no value. As you can see here, literally no value of the day. I caught a small short on Tesla. I actually shorted through the lows of the day off that 870 level. Went to 866. Again, I knew it wasn't going to be a big trade because the bottom support was 864. So I just, I made nothing on it. I made very small on it. Very, very small on it. Amazon started doing okay. But again, that's the point. It was doing okay. Okay. It wasn't doing phenomenal. It was doing okay. When you think the Dow is going to be up 1,000 points, you would think Amazon would be up like 50, 60 points, not so much. So here's a pretty decent pivot. Again, decent, decent pivot on Amazon 2470, 2471 needs to build. Here was Amazon. Again, I like Amazon this week, right? So here's a 2470. Went to 2488. Again, nice move. Again, if you call it the trade, great. But again, when you're thinking of Amazon, right? One of the greatest trading vehicles that the market has to offer, only being up 22 points with the Dow up 1,000 at one point, that's kind of my point. I mean, I like Amazon macro. I do. I'm waiting for that confirmation. But again, it just didn't give that juice. And again, that was kind of the theme for the whole group of that. So again, look, I got 1% value today. It's literally, again, this is kind of where it was. And I said, listen, maybe if it gets down under 100, it gets more aggressive. And there we go. That was the low of the day, 100 on Roku. But again, if you took the trade, good job. Netflix, again, forget about this 1150. This was 1150. I was putting pre-market. Went down to 404. So forget about that trade. Here was the pivot on Tesla towards the end of the day. 881, 882 needs to build. It went to 86. It closed well. Again, I really like Tesla, but I don't like it until it really confirms macro. So I think this whole area here will be sneaky. And we'll talk about the areas, the sneaky areas on Monday in the morning strategy. But again, this is the highest close in this whole formation since that big continuation day. I think if it starts taking out the sneaky pivot right here, it starts taking out two days worth of selling. It will test macro. And any close, guys, any close above this channel could get to 950. Again, we don't anticipate. This is the number. This is what it has to do. Again, we don't anticipate it happen. It actually has to happen. So I still like obviously that. And again, I kept that saying, I say, look, don't get caught up on the scoreboard. Nothing is moving in beta except for Apple and Boeing. This is the discipline. This is how you get rid of phone wall. Again, this is the message. Sometimes the message is much more important in your actions. It's like I say this all the time in the live webinar. There's a terminology in baseball. It says, do the little things that don't show up on the box score. And sometimes, again, less is more. It will give you more value. It will give you more value than actually participating. Again, perfect example. There's no juice in beta. 231 rejected twice. I think only one of 30 cents. That's it. 30 cents on the day that the market went up 1,000 points. So again, really, really disappointing action in beta. And again, this is why I pretty much got shut out. Here is really a good flush. I know a lot of you guys did very, very well. I completely panicked out of my cover. So this is the first area. Again, I only took Tesla in the short side. And then I took this Boeing short to the short side. Experienced traders only 214, 202, 14, if it builds below, can flush. And I said, max paying a dollar. Experienced traders only. And if you look at Boeing, and usually I don't look at the 5 minute view. But again, you had to because it was such a big macro. It had such a big macro point. And I tweeted this out. Usually when we look for dips on 60 minutes that the buy and remounts, usually the dips are a dollar, a dollar and a half off the highs. But at one point, just to give you an example, how crazy strong the stock was. Again, 41% move on the week. Boeing's 60 minute rise in support was $12. $12 where it was trading. You don't see that every day. So here is the 114 area. Here is the 114 area we were talking about. Hold on, let me just look at the 5 minute view. I just want to make sure I want to give you the right area. It was the 214 area. 214, 214, 214. And I'm sorry, it's right here. Sorry, right there. It's right here. So the stock flushes, right? The stock flushes, I cover it, right? I cover it. And then I watch the stock go down like another seven points. You know what it is? It's sometimes when you get too fast of a move, okay? And you know how strong the stock is. You're almost in a weird way. And this is why I said experienced traders only. You're almost in a weird way that you're shocked how fast you're getting the flow. That you almost panic cover. And I covered it, watched it go back up right a little bit and then really got killed. So again, that was on me. But again, mentally, I was already kind of checked out for the week. But again, it is what it is. Again, let your worst trade in the world be one that you're green on. And amazing. It just kept on going. 211 actually went down to 205. So you did catch this trade. And again, I joked around on that. And I said, hey, tell me your life didn't flash in front of your eyes on that pivot. I go, I almost died. How aggressive it was. So that was that. Again, it is what it is. It wasn't one of my finest moments. But again, green trade is a green trade anywhere you look at it. And I got to look slowly, but surely the value is starting to come in very, very slowly. But again, at the end of the day, you know, at the end of the day, it's all about again making it to the next day. So going into this week, again, can we see, you know, some pullback in the indexes Monday? Yeah, we could. I'm starting to look at more names that are lagging. And I never thought I would say that after, for example, after a thousand point move in beta. But again, I think this week you got to concentrate on names like Amazon, a lot of call buying coming in. You know, I want to see it start coming out of this channel here. I really like this NOW if it starts confirming. NOW has been in a good channel here for, you know, pretty long time. Obviously, Tesla will be watching as well. I like this JB Hunt in the trucking space. Again, big, big run up and one, two, three, four, five, six, seven days. So basically almost two weeks of consolidation. Looks like it wants to break out as well. The key is right now to look at names that didn't go out in that run. So if you're looking at Boeing, you say to yourself, watch Boeing for more upside this week. And a 41% move. So Boeing, I am not watching to the upside this week. I will be watching to the downside this week. So if it gaps up and hits supply and starts putting in lower highs, I mean, again, after a 41% move on the week, you know, you could get a 10% pullback. Why not? Again, nobody's saying it can't go to 300. Why not? But again, from the trading aspect, day to day, we're only talking about trying to get value for that day, coming back, reassessing and trying to value for the next day. So guys, have a great, great weekend. I wish everybody the best. Live your life. Be a good person. Learn how to smile. And God willing, I'll see you all Monday. Take care, guys. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? 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