 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 13th of July 2020 and the time has just gone, 11.45 British summer time and it's been a pretty positive start to the European trading session. There was a strong finish in the US on Friday at the back end of last week, a positive move in Asia overnight and now we're seeing decent gains here in European stock markets and we're also seeing a nice move to the upside in metals as well. So traders are clearly in risk on mode. In terms of news, there hasn't been a colossal amount at the back end of last week. We heard from Gilead Sciences, a big pharma company. They have an antiviral drug called Remdesivizer. It's been touted as a while as a potential treatment for COVID-19. On Friday, it was confirmed that a study showed that in relation to COVID-19 patients, it can reduce the fatality rate by 62%. That helped stock markets at the back end of last week and it's still helping stock markets today. Also at the back end of last week, we heard from BioNTech, another big pharma company. They're working alongside Pfizer to hopefully produce a drug that would hopefully go on to be a vaccine for COVID-19 and they're making progress in that and they hope to have it receive approval by Christmas. Obviously, in relation to pharmacy products, it is quite high risk. It's early stages yet, but nonetheless, traders are optimistic. Even though the health crisis is actually deepening sadly, according to the World Health Organization, with another record day of new cases around the globe, this situation isn't getting any better, but nonetheless, it seems to me that traders are focused more on the drug story rather than the actual health crisis itself. Also, if you have continuous days of similar news, rising cases and so on and so forth after a while, sometimes you can pardon the pun and get immune to that. What's also in the news is that there's a bit of weakness in the oil market. There's a report during the rounds stating that Saudi Arabia are looking to move a kind of retreat from the record production cuts that have been in place in relation to oil production. They're looking at kind of tapering back on those and with that we're seeing a bit of weakness in the oil market, nothing colossal, but mind you know, it was only a few weeks ago, we saw oil three month highs. So what I do now, as I always do, is I quickly run through the week ahead and then I go on to cover indices, currencies, currencies and commodities. So the week ahead article can be found on our website, cmcmarkets.com, under insights and news and analysis. So looking ahead to tomorrow, we have trade figures from China and people are going to be watching both the imports and exports component. Where is China on the import side? Are they buying loads because their economy is recovered and are they exporting loads because China is basically the workshop of the world, our Western economies and economies elsewhere buying stuff from China. Tomorrow morning, we also have a GDP reading from the UK. Tomorrow morning, we're going to have first half figures from the Cado. They're going to be in focus. The online grocer has done very well in recent months given the pandemic and also people's wish to order food, order goods online. So it's been a double victory for Cado recently. This week, we're going to have a U.S. reporting season kick off. As of tomorrow, we kick off with the likes of JP Morgan and Wells Fargo and Citigroup. We used to get big U.S. banks coming out this week. Keep an eye out for provisions in relation to bad loans, bad debts. We already saw a huge round of it in the last reporting season and it's highly likely that banks are going to be upping their provisions for bad debts. On Wednesday, we have first quarter figures from Burberry, the fashion house. They've traditionally done well in the Far East in Hong Kong and China. So keep an eye on those regions for that fashion house. Dun Elm have Q4 numbers out coming out on Wednesday. Also Wednesday, we have the latest UK unemployment and earnings figures. China are in focus also given that they have second quarter GDP. Now, this is really going to be closely watched by traders. We also have other aspects of Chinese data, industrial production and retail sales. And then also on Thursday, we have the ECB's rate decision. There's no way to change expected in relation to the rates. But any kind of commentary about altering stimulus packages or any kind of guidance that they might give will be closely watched out for. On Thursday, we also have a second quarter figures from Netflix. Keep in mind that they quite well in the most recent quarter, given that the lockdowns prompted some people to actually binge watch various different TV shows. So that's going to be in focus. And lastly on Friday, we're at the beginning of the EU summit. The European Union is very much divided over how to deal with the rescue fund. There's talk of a 750 billion euro rescue fund for the European Union. But within that, 500 billion is being talked about, has been doled out as grants and the remaining 250 as loans. And there are a certain number of countries dubbed the Frugal Four, including the likes of the Netherlands and Austria, who are opposed to having such high levels of grants as opposed to loans being dished out. So keep an eye out for that. So what I do now, as I always do, start off with the big indices, take a look at some currency pairs, and then finally some commodities. So starting off with the FTSE 100. We can see here on the wider view, it's been a nice upward trend for the last number of months, fair enough. The highs that were achieved in June haven't been retested so far, and we've been trading ever so slightly sideways. Maybe you could even argue to the downside ever so slightly, but the wider trend of the past few months is still in play. And if you can hold above this line here, the fifth and the moving average, and that comes into play, that comes into play in around, let's see the precise metric here now, the fifth and the moving average, that comes into play in 6,121. If you can hold above that, it's likely we could see the wider upward trend continue. And if you do press on higher from here, we could be looking at retesting the highs of early July in around 6,320, thereabouts. And if you go beyond that, we could then be looking heading up towards the highest seen in June, north of 6,500. Now to the downside, if you do break lower from here, and if you take out the most recent lows here, this metric here, in the 6,000, kind of big psychological number here, well it's actually just, the low is just below 6,000, but if you hold at 5,999, if you can, if you break below that, I could point this in direction down towards the mid-June low in around 6,156. And if you go below that, we can head down towards this zone here, down around 5,800. Take a look now at what's going on over in Germany. It's a fairly similar picture. The DAX is in better shape than the FTSE 100. So similar to the FTSE, it's been a nice upward trend for a number of months. It hasn't retested the highs of early June just yet, but it seems to me that it's getting there. The last few sessions it's been taking higher. We're currently trading at 12,767. If you press on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting the June highs in around 12,930, and if you go beyond that, the big psychological number of 13,000 will be the next one to keep an eye forward to the upside. If you do have a pullback, we could find some support from this red line here, the charity moving average in a 12,156. And if you go below that, we could be looking back towards this blue line here, the 50 moving average. It acted nice as a supporter on a few occasions in May. So the metric has been important in the past. It makes it more likely it'll be the important in the future, although there are no guarantees. And that comes into play at 11,872. I'll take a look now at what's going on with the Dow Jones. So the Dow Jones, similar to the FTSE that acts, decent upward trend into June, trading ever so slightly sideways and to be honest, it range bound the last number of weeks. But we are holding above the 50 moving average comfortably and now we're pretty much trading on the 200 moving average, this red line here. And the 200 moving average is pretty much at this level in around 26,265 thereabouts. If we can comfortably get above the 200 moving average and build upon it, we could then be looking at the record in 27,000. And then if you go beyond that, we could be heading up towards the highest of June at 27,633. If we do manage to get a drift lower again, support could come into play from this blue line here, the 50 moving average, just south of 25,400. Once again, we can see that metric acted nice, it's a support in the past. So the possibility it could act as support again in the future. If you do have a break below the 50 moving average, keep an eye out for this line here, the 100 moving average in a 24,367. We saw a bit of consolidation and a bit of support from it in early June, late May, and we also saw a bit of consolidation from it in mid June as well. So the metric has been important in the past. So it could be of interest in the near term. And then lastly, I'll be taking a look at the S&P 500 as far as indices go. This trend line has been, it's not quite perfect. I left it in just because it kind of showed you how it seems to make that the market's kind of dancing around it. So if you draw a trend line between the lows of late March to the lows of mid June, you get this trend line along here. And you can see quite to be fair, we did trade below it, but it was one day we traded below it, even close below it, but we've been trading kind of quite consistently in around it, and we're trading pretty much on at the moment. And even though cash trading in the US hasn't begun, we're expecting the S&P 500 to open higher, we're expecting it to open around 3,225. So if you can hold above the kind of 3,200 mark and also this trend line, it's likely we could see further gains being made because of the wider upper trend. It's not perfectly intact, but it's broadly intact. So if I do press on higher from here, we could be targeting the early June highs in around 3,233. If you do pull back though from these levels, we could see support current to play. Well, from this zone here, where the red line and the blue line meet the red line, being the turn to moving average, and the blue line being the 50 moving average. As soon as both metrics have been important in the past, we've seen them act as support, and both of them have support not too long ago. So this zone here could be of interest should we see a move to the downside, and that come into play in around 3,034. I'll take a look now at what's going on with the British, well, the euro versus the US dollar. What are you able to talk about is, we just talked about how broadly speaking, stock markets have been reasonably strong over the last few months. One thing I've noticed is that the US dollar has been popular with traders that have been in risk off sentiment. The green back has attracted funds during the green back recently has acted as a flight to quality play. So it's no coincidence that in the last few sessions, we've seen stock markets edge higher and we could be approaching multi-week highs. We're also seeing a stronger euro, and by stronger euro, I mean a weaker dollar. So the euro at least moved between mid-June, mid-May into mid-June, had a bit of a pullback of a correction that's been edging higher slowly since. And as far as you've been down on the fact that traders have been turning their backs on the US dollar, because in a stock market, so stronger metals are higher, they're clearly in a mode to take on more risk. So if the euro does build higher from here, we could be looking at heading towards 114, heading up towards early June highs in at one spot, 1422. And if you go beyond that, we could then be looking at targeting the highs of March in at one spot, 1495. If an euro, support could come into play from the kind of 112 zone down to the lows here in latest June in at one spot, 1168. So keep an eye out for one spot 12, one spot 1168 to the downside. Taking a look now at what's going on in relation to the British pound versus the US dollar. So the pounds that are fairly decent run the last couple of weeks, the last week or 10 days. And last move to the upside, be pressing higher. We can see here that this candle here has the potential to be a gravestone doji, which kind of could lead us lower. But the market itself has been almost trading sideways the last couple of sessions. So there's clear kind of indecision going on. We can't really ignore the kind of the trend of the last week in an episode, which is still to the upside. So if we do press on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting this red line here, the trend they're moving average in at one spot, 69, one spot, 2692. And if you go beyond that, we could be looking at it towards 130. Sorry, I jumped the gun a bit there. If you go beyond one spot 2692, we could be looking at targeting the highs of early June in a one spot, 2813. And if you go beyond that, we could be heading up towards 130. If the market does manage to kind of turn over on itself yet again, we could find support in around the kind of 125 area. It's in a bit of consolidation there in the past, or also from where this blue line, they fit the moving average and the other line, the 180 moving average where they can converge in a one spot, 2432. It was only last week. We had a decent move in gold. Gold, if the dollar soft, which has a track record of being soft recently, when the dollar soft, it helps the gold market and metals in general. So it's only last week, last Wednesday, we saw gold hit its highest level since September, 2011. So that really just kind of sums up how bullish the gold market is. It hasn't been the most exciting of markets in terms of daily market moves by and large, but nonetheless, it has been a fairly decent, we've seen it kind of consistently move higher. So we're clearly in an upward trend. If you can move on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting last week's high in around 1818, beyond 1818, we could be looking ahead in towards 1828. Any move to the downside in gold could find some support from the kind of psychological number of 1800, or if you go below that, down towards 1770, this zone here. And even if you go below that, this theory could act as support in 1747. That would be below, below, to the obvious, low, low, low, low, late June, June. And lastly, I'll take a look at what's going on with oil. Looking at Brent crude, the September contract. So we talked about hours. Today's a bit of a down day for the oil market because there's talk that Saudi Arabia want to undo some of the record production cuts that have been in place. So you can notice here in the oil market, it hasn't really broken out above this area here. This kind of zone here in around $43.50, $43.95, that area hasn't really been taken out to the upside, but at the same time, it hasn't really given that much ground to the downside. So it's almost like the market's kind of deciding which way to move next. These deep production cuts and the reopening of economies has led to the big rebound in the price of oil, but at the same time, that kind of rally appears to be running out of steam. So if it does manage to pick up again, and we do press on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting the high, so the lows rather of early June, after early June, early March, in at $46.33. But if you do drift lower from here, support could come into play back from around 40 bucks per barrel, back down toward this blue line here, the 50 moving average. And that comes into play. The 50 moving average comes into play at $38.73. Now, that's all for this week. Thank you for listening. Stay safe, have a good training week, and good luck.