 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that is our sports betting podcast here on the fan duel podcast Now we're getting set for week number two of college football. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com joined here as always by dr. Ed Fang of the power rank Dot-com you can find him on Twitter at the power rank and Ed I come to you in defeat because Stanford defeated Northwestern in the most depressing fashion I've ever seen I can't say that I've seen a lot of bad Northwestern football games But you know any you are the winner of our bet well any time you lose a bet because The opposing team took a fumble and ran it back for a touchdown That's a bad beat So, you know, I mean, I think we had both kind of converged on the fact that this was a good 50-50 bet With the points at six and a half. I think that's exactly what it turned out to be Stanford, you know did do better in the yardage department. So, you know, there's many other ways that they could have covered as well But yeah Yeah, you know, I think I think our analysis of the game was right and it was a good game to bet on and Hopefully we'll do another one. I'll take lion's side at some point. You know, okay What's your NFL team? I grew up in Minnesota, but I also grew up a Jets fan So like I don't know if I have an NFL alliance like my alliance is to Trevor Simeon, I guess and he's a Jets backup So in three years when the Jets and lions play next time as Simeon is somehow on the roster I'll hit you then but with Stanford and Northwestern Initially, I was very sad because I was like, oh cool Like any who's gonna lose this game, but they'll cover and I wanted to wear a Stanford shirt on air Which I will next week once my Stanford shirt arrives And I was like I had Accepted that the problem was I accepted that before the end of the game But it realistically when I was accepting the fact that they were going to cover I also knew that I was lucky in the fact that they were covering because if KJ Costello doesn't get hurt they're not going to cover if There isn't a bunch of weirdness in that game if they're you know Maybe they get the targeting call against Costello when he goes down maybe that swings things There were so many reasons Northwestern should not have been covering to begin with that I eventually came around and decided it wasn't as bad of a beat as it initially felt But that didn't really console me all that much I think I agree with you where seeing Stanford so heavily outgained Northwestern made it feel like it shouldn't have been a bad Beat but at the at the time that doesn't really get rid of the sour mouth the sour taste right away Yeah, and kind of thinking long-term you had to ask some questions about Hunter Johnson Oh, I was asking questions about Hunter Johnson his first swing pass. I said Bad things It would count real graphic real fast. I I'm sure that he will improve. I hope he does I'm sure he's a great guy. Well, he but that does not lead to a lot of optimism. I'll say that Well, he has to improve right because isn't green out. Yeah, TJ green. I think he had foot surgery So surgery. Okay. Yeah, and like it's weird because we were talking last week about this game And I was so pessimistic about it because seeing TJ green as a co-starter with Johnson I was like, oh man, that says a really bad thing about Hunter Johnson But it was mostly because I was down on TJ green, but he actually looked pretty good, but I don't know It's it's gonna be rough. I think they're off this week So I'll get a week to lick my wounds. I move forward from there. Hopefully Costello's healthy for Stanford facing the USC team that is not healthy. Yeah, we'll see how that goes But you know a tough beat, but I was lucky to begin with so I can't I can't cry too much about that one for sure Coming up today, we're gonna get set for week number two of college ball Drew Martin you can find him on Twitter at Drew Martin bets you can find his work over at sports memo calm and also Over at sports book review, which you can follow on Twitter at SB our sports picks find Drew's stuff there We are talking week two college football Drew specializes in betting smaller conference games So we're gonna talk Western Kentucky against FIU because Drew thinks the line there is pretty inefficient Of course, we'll get to the bigger games LSU, Texas Texas and Clemson to get his thoughts on those and see what he thinks there But it should be a pretty fun episode and Ed as someone who does not know as much as he should about smaller conferences I'm excited to see to hear Drew's thoughts on specifically that Western Kentucky game Yeah, absolutely and the way he goes about it in terms of his process is also really interesting So he's he's gonna be a great guest coming up on Friday. We'll have our week one NFL preview We are gonna talk with Donnie right side for that one and it should be up sometime around noon We're gonna court at 10 a.m. Eastern on Friday So should be up around noon or so I would guess and if you want to make sure you get that podcast right as it is posted Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread on Apple podcasts Spotify Stitcher the Google Play Store iHeart radio wherever you get your podcasts You can find covering the spread and of course as always ratings and reviews so greatly appreciated on those as well We'll get to Drew in just one second. But first let's go back through week one of college football And figure out where we may need to tinker our process a little bit in covering the past Covering the past All right, so last week on covering the spread previewing week one of college football We talked essentially about four games. We had Edward e-gross on Edward pretty good in his his first You know full episode of covering the spread. He had Utah covering against BYU that happened Talked about Auburn covering against Oregon that happened as we will talk about With Drew later on as well because he is an Auburn alum and then Houston did cover against Oklahoma May have been a backdoor cover, but you know a covers a cover Could we good teams win great teams cover and I am now convinced that Houston is a great team And you talked about Cincinnati against UCLA and that was a really weird game So I want overall what were your thoughts on those four games we talked about specifically UCLA Cincinnati Yeah, you know, I mean Edward did a great job. My result wasn't as good as Cincinnati ended up winning that game Um, Jordan Thompson Robinson was terrible and this really gets into kind of the hardest part about sports betting in that you watch that game And he played bad and I personally think it was on the worst side of his games in terms of accuracy I think it was more accurate last year and obviously the fumbles too affected the game Right, but let's let's not make excuses for in terms of the turnovers like he was just bad He was not accurate. He could not get the ball where he wanted to throw it And you know, I mean kind of intellectually you want to say a small sample size just the one game Right, um, but then you watched the game and it was just that bad And it's always this mix between the numbers which are probably going to find value on UCLA this week against San Diego state and then You know what you actually saw because he could be bad, right? I mean, right I don't know how many more games like that. He's going to survive under the system Because when you go three and nine your first year Um, so anyways, I always feel like, you know, it's like it's a perfect example of, you know, the game didn't go your way That's fine. What does it mean going forward? And that's really hard because if if you watch the game, you really don't want to fire again on UCLA Uh, despite, you know, your preseason analysis and you know, we and the defense wasn't good either Right, you know, we kind of make your assumptions when you get that many players back that they're going to be better They really weren't so You know, was it just all around a bad game? Yeah, it was definitely overall a bad game. Can they get better? Not really sure. Um, the you know, we did have the game that used UCLA plus three It did close at two and a half most places. Right. So, um, you know, a little bit close the line value there That means something to me. It doesn't mean everything to me like it does to some sports better. Um, but You know, UCLA is probably a team I'm staying away from So let me talk to you more about the the film process here because you know, we all watch games but we're also numbers people at heart and There's going to be a bias towards what your eyes see every time How do you personally within your process Combat the bias because there is value to be gained from watching the games obviously too But how do you kind of try to balance that within your personal process? It's really hard because when you watch like you inevitably want to put more meaning to what you just saw And I think it's different from the NFL because I'm sure at some point this season I'm going to be on a team that just played awful with the last week two three weeks And I think it's a little bit different in the NFL because those guys are all pros And you know, even a guy like Eli Manning can stay in the NFL and right there might be a week where you want to I mean as much as that makes you want to throw up it's going to happen. I think it's a little bit different with college You know, these are 19 year olds. I just don't know about Dorian Thompson Robinson like It's a tough thing And I think everyone's going to have their own approach to it I think you have to always watch your biases because you're always kind of going to be biased to what you see And you know, there's no right answer Yeah, it's it's one of the things that I struggle with most in assessing my own process is How much do I value what I see versus what the numbers say and I don't think I'll ever get it perfect So it's something that I'm always I love talking people like you about to find out what your process is because it's It's never very easy. We'll get to drew in just one second to talk about week two But first if you want to get in on the action check out the fandom sports book and place your first bet today If you lose fandom will give you a refund up to $500 in site credit visit sportsbook.vandal.com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in new jersey or pennsylvania gambling problem. Call 1 800 Gamma let's bring on drew martin. You can find him on twitter at drew martin bets And once again his work is over at sports memo.com and at the sports book review talk and week two of college football Covering the present Let's welcome drew martin into covering the spread to talk week two of college football drew. Welcome to the show How are you doing today? Hey, jim. I'm doing good man. It's uh, what week week two of college football So we got some over and under adjustments to do but uh overall it's a great time to be a sports matter Early college football football season. I think uh brings the most advantages towards the sports better over the odds maker So exciting time man. Yeah, absolutely. And you just moved too. So you've got that going for you You've got college football back. We've got nfl coming up this week for week one as well So busy time and I want to thank you for taking time out of that schedule to join us here for today and I want to talk to you drew first about your background because your background is in finance and There's clearly going to be a pretty heavy overlap between finance and betting especially, you know when it comes to trying to find Edges and markets, but uh, what do you believe is the biggest leg up that you get in betting Due to your knowledge of finance? Um, jim, that's a good question And you know, I guess I would start which is kind of the blimps view of money management And um, you know, I've never been a guy to kind of go go all in on a bet or anything like that I don't recommend that for anybody out there new to the industry with all the uh, you know Legalized sports betting people, uh, maybe listening for the first the the first time or just new to sports betting overall Um, I would probably say just kind of limiting the wagers, you know 1% of your bankroll if you got a hundred thousand dollars don't be betting, you know Five or ten thousand dollars on on on any one, you know Bet that you you think is a lock or anything like that because anything can happen in sports betting And just kind of a long term approach of maybe one two percent of your bankroll Towards the plays that you think have the most advantages also stick to what you know, jim, you know In in investing in finance, you know, if you're concentrating mostly on on stocks stick to stocks If you're concentrating mostly on bonds stick to bonds don't don't kind of go out there too much Into markets that you're not really comfortable with that you don't really know because that's where you can kind of Get suckered into making bad investments. So if you're a college football guy, that's what you know the most I would say, you know Go in full board on college football same thing with college basketball Don't try to do too much sports betting is a is a market where it's it's a lot better to know a lot About a little bit than to know a little bit about a lot And that's probably uh, the thing that I bring in the most about coming from the investment world into sports betting So let's stick with that same thread there drew because you were talking about knowing your strengths and kind of that self Awareness when you look at yourself as a better What would you deem to be your strength and where do you try to focus most of your attention when it comes to college football? um, I would say my My my strengths are college football and college basketball in in overall thinking That there's just more teams and more games for the odds makers to spend their time doing therefore There's more of a chance for them to make a mistake, you know in college basketball We have over 300 teams. That's very hard for the odds makers to have a correct read on all of them Same thing in college football. There's 130 plus college football division one teams all getting lined um, we got sports books now with uh, you know Sports betting becoming more more legalized more mainstream more people jumping into the market looking for different marketing avenues We just we just saw just this last week a new change in the market circus sports in las vegas Opened the market in terms of sides on sunday afternoon They beat the off-shores. You know, mostly it's bet online in years past bringing uh, the first odds to the market Therefore, it's just more mistakes can happen. So talking about um, you know And to add on to that smaller conferences where there's less eyeballs I think that um, you know, it's more important for the odds makers to have a sharp line on texas versus lsu Than it is for them to have a sharp line on f i u versus western kentucky week two You know, they just didn't spend a lot of time on it They're not going to have the same amount of money bet Therefore their risk isn't going to be as high and uh using all of those things towards our advantage So i've tried to concentrate more so on the sunbelt conference usa um, you know mountain west conferences like that the group of five and uh in the last couple years it's kind of paid off Excellent. So drew. How do you approach uh, college football betting? What do you do on a week to week basis in terms of uh, previewing these teams? Well, um, you know, I try to get as much information information is power ed as you know I try to uh, take take information from from really smart people in the industry like yourself at vang like, uh Bill connelly guys like that that really know the sport Good writers bring up good ideas to get information on each team also, I take you know Part of my background is I grew up playing the sport played quarterback position was kind of a film junkie So to speak so watching these games taking notes watching the replay of games watching for injuries where the backup May be a a far drop off from the from the kid that was starting. Keep in mind This isn't the nfl where a backup comes in and it's still, you know A top top level athlete making, you know millions of dollars as the backup a lot of times in these smaller conferences You know, it's the kid that just got the last scholarship this past year And he's really up against it against the guy that's going to work him And if you can kind of find those matchups it, uh, can really go a long way into uh Getting an advantage over the odds makers because again, they got a lot to do just from saturday to the opening number on sunday And uh, that speaks to you know, the opening number not being nearly as sharp as the closing number So it's also important to get down on bets Especially early in the season in college football earlier in the week because it's uh, not as sharp as a number in my opinion Yeah, drew one of the things you were talking about there was trying to watch the games and try to learn What you can't from that one game I'm sure you watched last week given that you are an auburn alum probably auburn against oregon They're playing too late in this week. What do you think uh from auburn in that opener? Obviously an exciting win there at the end. What are your thoughts on auburn based on that? And what what do you think about bonix after his first game? Yeah, I mean, you know for college football fans I think it was a great game to watch. It was very exciting down the end in terms of uh, you know Just kind of focusing in on on the oregon side. I think that they kind of got hosed a little bit You know, they did have the better quarterback Talent wise, you know, I a lot of people want to focus on the fact of the sec having the better players and kind of dominating out of conference I don't necessarily see it that way and uh mainstream media is kind of focused on that just kind of handicapping conferences I'm not a big fan of that. I think you got to look a little bit deeper, especially in the betting markets A little bit more under the hood so to speak. I mean oregon I think went straight up against auburn and you know, it showed in the scoreboard I think that they had the the the more experienced better more talented quarterback at this point in their careers Um, and I also, you know, you got to tip your cap towards that oregon defense I think that they were great all all game long up until the end with that touchdown pass I I would give the edge to the oregon defensive backs over the auburn wide receivers, you know, 10 out of 10 times I think they were dominating them and I actually I view it as auburn on the outside skill position talent I don't think they're all that great at the wide receiver position outside of number 18 Um, I I think they're gonna be up against it And I think they can have trouble playing an sec west schedule That's one of the toughest if not the toughest in the country Overall bet and auburn I look at it as maybe as as an under team going forward You know, we've seen it in the past with gust smells on he doesn't necessarily Press on that gas pedal to go up tempo If the if the offense isn't isn't really churning and it really wasn't churning for a lot of that game So going forward with auburn's defense and the sentiment that that malzahn has calling the plays Knowing that he has a great defense and not going up tempo. I would look for auburn as more of an under team going forward jim All right, uh, I think that's definitely interesting and definitely good to hear that perspective of someone who Watches, you know, these games pretty in depth and knows a lot about auburn So interesting to see what they do going forward. Let's dive into the game by game breakdown here And we will get into some non-power five teams later on We got a pick drew's brand on his specialty here coming up again follow him on twitter at drew martin betts Let's start things off here with lsu against texas one of the big games this week lsu Now a five and a half point favorite in this game The total is 55 and a half at fandal sportsbook and this is a line that has moved quite a bit It was originally much closer and the the market's expected a much closer game But things have shifted heavily towards lsu. So drew when you look at these two teams Do you think the line has moved too much towards lsu or do you still think there is value in betting them at minus five and a half? Well, I guess I think the the movement has gotten a little out of line jim, you know texas coming into this game a lot of um What the analytics guys not really impressed with texas win However, when you break it down even more louisiana tech up front Their defensive line their linebackers are just some big boys in terms of group of five defenses I have them ranked as one of the best and better than a lot of power five opponents So putting up 45 points against that louisiana tech bulldog defense. I actually don't think it was that bad I think it was very impressive actually So I kind of give a tick up here towards texas and with sam ellager at the quarterback position I think that you know his his his ceiling is very high. He's a guy that can be playing on sundays Ingram at running back. I think he shows a lot of versatility can make plays as well Um, they do have a couple injuries. I think that that is is You know pushing this line a little bit towards lsu, but overall viewing this game Tom herman as an underdog especially at home has been great. He's in year three of the administration I usually have that as a circle on bet on opportunity for texas Plus the fact and this is something that ed and uh, our friend bill connelly put me on in a conference just last year The i fbc and in los vegas a lot of fun by the way is defensive backs the continuity there It carries over more from year to year and that matters more at that position And as we know texas is kind of going with this slogan this year as dbu And so to have that confidence to have the same guys returning in the continuity there I think that it will um, it will translate into them playing better against pat against the pass anyway So getting up near a touchdown now. I would actually lean towards texas here But uh, it looks like the betting market's like in that sec sentiment with the sec athletes here and betting on lsu So I kind of disagree with that uh with that line move jim Did you disagree with enough with the line move to actually bet lsu a minus five and a half or Sorry, did bet texas at plus five and a half Or do you is it just enough for you to stay away from lsu? Well five and a half i'm staying away I mean it's actually up to six and a half now at uh at some books So we're getting we're inching closer to that seven number and and this is another part of of sports betting Getting close to these key numbers here and watching the market movement I would actually not bet it at this point But um getting you know seen where this market is moving also knowing in the back of our heads that uh, You know the more mainstream betters here and as more of those mainstream betters enter the marketplace I think that public money is going to start pushing some of these marquee college football games Even more this year than we've seen in years past. So I think there's actually a chance that this could touch seven Who knows maybe even seven and a half talking about you know a marquee saturday night game Where a lot of people are going to be wanting to bet this get tickets on it So, uh, I would actually wait here and if we see a seven Even higher that might bring opportunity to texas, but to answer your question. No, I haven't personally bet this game Yeah, that's interesting. I kind of I kind of envision the what texas oil money coming in late and You know, they got a lot of high hopes for the longhorns. So so we'll see about that Ah, interesting ad I like that. I mean, but but you know, uh in terms of the texas oil money I don't know if we'll see more of it this year. Is sports betting uh legal in texas I'm not uh fully up to date on which states are legal and aren't I don't think so, but they're you know, they're gonna have their outs wherever and and things like that That's a great point So we'll see I mean, I'm really interested to see see where this where this game goes It should be a great one Drew, let's switch a little bit gears talk about texas a&m going to clemson Clemson's the 17 and a half point favorite right now with a total of 64 and a half What did you think about clump? I don't know if you had a chance to watch clumpson last week But trouble or struggle a little bit through a couple picks Um What what do you think about this game? Yeah, I did watch the game and you know going against george atek, um, you know, I was a big fan of paul johnson Watching that triple option so to see him change it kind of uh rip my heart out a little bit I like watching those triple option teams at the power five level But uh, they're in for a long rebuild as you guys know going from the triple option to uh more of a modern spread It's gonna be tough But I think that they'll be able to recruit there in atlanta But talking about that game and going forward for clemson Um trevor laurence is is a guy obviously i think that he's a future First round draft pick that's not you know really going outside of the mainstream thinking here And I wouldn't put too much into a couple a couple interceptions week one against george atek I think that he's a great quarterback having said that Betting this game texas a nm versus clemson. This is a big number. You're gonna lay to an sec west athletic Def our defense offense all that said but even more importantly not just to talk about conference affiliation We got kellen mond the quarterback for texas a nm He's a dual threat guy can throw the ball down the field and just last year And uh that that brings last year with clemson their defensive line What three defensive line first round draft picks off the team and granted clemson is one of these teams that rebuild Reloads not necessarily Rebuild so I think it's going to be tough for him because what it was their closest match up all last year I think they'd won what just 28 to 26 is 12 point favorites So texas a nm covered that number not only covered covered it by 10 points almost beat them And and going into this year This is a texas a nm team that returns five starters on the offensive line that started at least seven games last year In front of a very good quarterback and kellen mond that can't throw the ball down field And including uh, what three pretty good wide receivers guys that got uh, uh next level athletic ability in my opinion So I would look towards texas a nm here actually catching 17 and a half points I think they have they have a puncher's chance at going into death valley south carolina coming out with a victory And keep in mind, you know davo sweeney's been a great coach But it's tough to motivate 18 to 23 year old kids all off season long going through all those workouts They're reading the press clippings. They're the best. They're the national champions going on campus Like you guys know and just being told they're the best all off season long I would put that all in our pocket. I bet texas a nm plus the 17 and a half actually caught him at an 18 And I recommend it out there and uh as we get closer to game time I I would sprinkle a little bit on the money line texas a nm aggis Andrew has has them at texas a nm plus 18 They're now uh plus 17 and a half at fando sports book But even at that number 70 of the bets and 71 of the money are on texas a nm So sounds like the public is with you there drew good feeling to have uh as you get that one Let's finish up here with a game you sound pretty excited about you brought it up earlier That's western kentucky against florida international florida international f i u is favored by seven and a half here And the total in this game is 60 both these teams coming off season opening losses f i u lost two lane western kentucky lost central arkansas What draws you to this game drew and do you think that there is an inefficient line on this game? I do and talking about betting college football, you know week two to about week eight or nine I think it's the prime area to get an advantage for sports betters And if you know the teams inside and out and you spend a lot of time, you know Trust your numbers and trust your judgment because again, they have to spread their time and their knowledge over all 130 30 teams we can uh focus in on just one match up here So conference usa watch both of these two teams in terms of their their their game film also studying them a lot In the off season and we got western kentucky here losing to an fcs opponent week one not looking very good We've seen the trajectory of this program heading down. They haven't been recruiting all that well Going up against f i u who faced two lane and willy fritz's two lane had just mcmillan at the quarterback position And as as you guys know, you know when you're a defense facing a option principal offense And you don't stop them in the first quarter It's not something that's very easy to change in the second third and fourth quarters So it kind of snowballs on you and that happened to f i u in week one So that score looks a lot more misleading a lot worse on the panthers than i believe it actually was This is an f i u team under butch davis And i know the the the miami hurricanes won the national championship in 2001 as larry coker as the head coach Butch davis actually recruited all of those guys. He was there that built that program in terms of the you argue You know, you can make the argument the best college football team of all time. So whatever he's doing down there Um recruiting in south florida. It's working the f i u panthers have 47 Three star recruits from broward date and palm beach county down there in south florida They got the quarterback transfer from bowling green and morgan and he's an accurate quarterback that i think can lead these kids He's a veteran quarterback. So uh this seven and a half number here I know the market's even coming in on western kentucky, but i've learned over time jim that uh, i've spent enough time It's not rocket science that when the market goes against you in a situation like this Uh, i'm happy to go against the market all day long. It's worked for positive ev betting for me in the past And uh, just really all of those sentiments going up against each other I I like f i u the panthers at home to roll western kentucky. I laid the uh, I laid the eight I laid the seven and a half. It keeps going against me. I'm gonna keep adding to it So, uh, I would recommend uh to you as the listeners out there that f i u panthers are the side So drew let me talk to you about that actually when you get a read That the public and the market will be on one side, but you're on the other Do you try to wait before entering that market or do you not want to risk it that that number will no longer be available? The number you see as being advantageous, you know, how do you decide when to enter a market when you know it may go against you Man, that's next level question. Good one there, jim and to tell you the truth going into this on the openers I didn't know the market would go against me. You know, I made my number The market came out against it and uh, you know, I fired away But having seen that that's a great question and I would come to there's other You know metrics betters out there the syndicates that go off of And and I've talked to some guys in the industry in terms of fbs teams losing to fcs teams In week one coming back week two and performing well against the spread So in terms of a blimp's view Of this actual matchup. I actually think that's what's happening in the marketplace And they just have a lot more money than I do as a as a sports better That's what's pushing the the market against me. So i'm actually viewing this in terms of a More strategic a more kind of knowledge base of this singled out matchup And uh, fiu just has more talent granted. I could be wrong. It's one sports bet You don't want to go too too much away from this, you know fumbles anything like that can happen Also, I could have the the wrong read. I don't believe it though and uh, I'm betting it personally So that's why I think the market is going against me and in terms of market entry I don't know how far it will go against me. So just with each half point move jim I add to the bet up to a certain point. I do have limits For sure. Drew, is there anything in the tape that you're watching that makes you like this game? Um Um, sure sure the offensive and defensive line push. Um, again going against two lane I think two lane is a very underrated team. So I think that that makes fiu look a lot worse than they actually do Uh, just after one week and again watching the tape like I talked about in terms of the uh, Offensive profile of two lane running those option principles and it kind of snowballing on fiu defense That's the main reason but um, also watching, uh, you know the western kentucky tape and uh, just just coaching in Last year really going from what a bowl team to a three and nine team and just the the program overall didn't like what I saw They lost at home to an fcs team now. They're going on the road to south florida Going to be humid down there. So I just think a lot of different avenues are pointing towards fiu being the side Ed So drew right now. We are monitoring the lsu texas line to see if that goes further towards lsu We've got uh texas a and m you got them plus 18 there now plus 17 and a half And then we do like fiu any other bets you see on the board whether it be at You know one of these smaller conference schools that you like or maybe that you have grabbed already this week Um, sure. Sure. I don't know how much time we can go. So I'll just wrap the fire and uh, and you guys can stop me UCF is a team that you know, I've been on for a couple years now one of the more profitable teams in college football And in granted at some point this is gonna end and in talking about what I brought from finance to to sports betting You know the whole buy low sell high Um philosophy I think that that works in sports betting as well So ucf before was kind of a buy low candidate now. I'm not so sure you're buying low However, they are only uh, what minus 10 here on the road at fiu in terms of athletic ability It's going to very much favor ucf. They're recruiting rankings are better than heck a lot a lot of uh power five teams So, uh, this ucf program is a powerhouse really laying 10 to fau in bokeh raton jim Um, just just from kind of knowing the college football In florida ucf's likely gonna outnumber fau in their own stadium there in bokeh raton It's just a tough read in terms of the quarterback switch for ucf, you know, mckinsey milton I think you could make the argument. He was the most valuable player to his team last year And seeing a new quarterback position. I really wanted to to to watch them week one and and learn a little bit more about them Unfortunately, they played florida florida a and m the rattlers So it's tough to get too too good of a read on them But they did put up what north north of 50. I think north of 60 points So it kind of is a bet on opportunity. I did go small on ucf here laying the Nine and a half or actually it's pushed up to 10 now. Also byu tennessee Can I stop you real quick? Yeah, yeah, because I want to I want to point out you came on my podcast two years ago Uh talking about ucf and uh, you were obviously very spot on the money Therefore, you know, I mean they've they've lost once in the last two years Um, I do want to ask you about a little bit more about ucf because this is a team that i'm not particularly sure about I want to ask you about on offense You know, I mean they threw the they've thrown the ball so well over the past two years like can brandon wimbush continue that against good competition That's that's the question and that's not that's why i'm not going all in or anything like that I'm just kind of going down the rotation numbers on on things that I bet personally and and talking about you know talent One through 84 on the roster it very much favors ucf here But you're right accuracy numbers and especially from the quarterback position throwing downfield Are very important in in things that I use in my betting So I think that still is a question But um, also out on the fact that um the the the freshman that that ucf has he's a lot more accurate So uh, he got snaps in that first game. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a bunch of snaps here And uh, we've seen it before with um, you know the the profile that ucf has in terms of uh, just being able to light it up So yeah to answer your question. It is it is something that I do worry about and um So one of the reasons I haven't gotten too big on the night said Okay, and and also let me just throw the the defense is really interesting to me too A lot of talent returning on that side of the ball But a unit that I mean I want to say they ranked 84th in my adjusted yards per play last year Uh, it was a unit that forced a lot of turnovers. So they looked a lot better on the scoreboard What do you make of their defense? Um, I I think that there's a lot of improvement. Um, I think that the talent's there You know, when you look at their recruiting rankings, so I think that there can be improvement But it's another thing to watch and um, sure I could see f a u putting up some points and that speaks towards this over as well You know, it's uh in the upper 60s right now if we have good weather another thing in sports betting Especially in south florida, you got to watch that weather up until kickoff really because it can change But um, yeah, I think that that's a question mark as well. Ed so um But I I will say this, you know Following their their beat writers, they do work on turnovers on the defensive side and it's spoken to that and I've tried to Tried to work that into my handicapping as well Something that I think you would be on in terms of teams that have created a lot of turnovers in the past It it reflecting into the future that they keep um, they they they keep kind of the over of average on creating turnovers I've tried to work that into my metrics. Haven't necessarily been able to put pen to paper on it But um, it's something that I kind of just keep in the back of my mind So I would actually be interested in your thoughts. Have you ever done any research on that? I have and we should talk offline about it more. I think it's a fascinating thing It's it's like a kind of a chicken and egg problem because we're finding out That you know, the best teams tend to have Great turnover margins right alabama hasn't had a negative I mean, they've had like one negative turnover margin since Nick Stevens been there or something like that But it ends up that a lot of that happens because they're up in games and and they have a good defense and The opponent's trying to throw the ball So so in general like fumbles tend to be pretty even whether you're a good team or a terrible team But interceptions can greatly skew towards better teams just because they tend to be up a lot late in games Um, yeah, we'll we'll talk about that. I mean something I'm planning on digging into over the next kind of 365 days Definitely project Before we let you go drew you were starting talking about byu, tennessee and given what happened to those two teams last week I want to hear your thoughts in that game. So uh final closing thoughts here byu, tennessee What's your thoughts on that game? Oh, man, you're gonna close me off on just uh one more game jim now In terms of byu, tennessee, I think that you know the byu quarterback Um, zack wilson just a freshman and and he's gonna be going into neland stadium I think it's a really tough ask for him. I think that he struggled throwing the ball down the field That's not to speak towards, you know, his future career Being very good, but just in one week being able to turn that around granted There's the other side to it saying he was going up against utah's defensive line And there is something to that but I don't think tennessee's defensive line is very is necessarily bad Or their defense is bad I think it speaks towards similar to the fi u verse two lane in week one the georgia state panthers In my opinion very very underrated just a two and team a two and ten team last year And their quarterback dan ellington a very good athlete in high school. He was very good Playing there in atlanta I think that georgia state when you read the their articles coming into the season That they were a very much improved team in the sun belt. So even though, you know, granted if they played tennessee 10 times They're not going to win five anything like that I don't think that game was was nearly as surprising and looking back and grading myself as a handicapper I actually wish I would have bet it. I just uh, you know got away from it And um, you know, georgia state is going to be a bet on for me going forward jim and I think tennessee kind of You know, talk about that by low opportunity here at home against a b y u team that I think is going to be up against it Also garitano at the quarterback position I rate him a whole lot higher than I do b y u's uh freshman quarterback making his first road starts So I think tennessee at uh, what just three and a half right now It is worth a bet on the by low sell high, uh Uh methodology That is awesome stuff that is drew martin you can find him on twitter at drew martin betts And his work is over at sports memo dot com and also at sports book review drew Thank you so much for swinging by here a lot of awesome info I love talking to people who are enthusiastic about the smaller conferences really fun conversation Hopefully things go well for you in week two. Good luck Yeah, jim. Thanks for having me on ed like always great working with you and uh, yeah look forward to talking with both of you Um going forward feel free to reach out anytime at drew martin bets on twitter and guys, uh, best of luck with your bets Thank you very much. Yeah, thanks for coming on drew covering the future Big thank you once again to drew martin for swinging by and talking about college football getting a set for week number two And at I was I was stoked that drew drew on to keep going It's to keep tossing out more bets, you know, drew is like drew does this professionally, but he's just giving out his Ticks for free. I love it. That was awesome. Yeah, absolutely Your martin's a good guy and and I recommend you guys all follow him and get his insights on twitter Yep at drew martin bets great twitter follow and his work is over at sports moment.com and sports book review within there We did talk about odds fire and ed and I always preach searching for the best value when betting on games You want a shot for the best line? Well, look no further than the new odds comparison Our engineers have developed over at number fire dot com Odds fire is the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated us market Compare odds quickly identify the best value and even examine first party fan dual data all in one place Never settle always get the best odds check out the experience for free now on number fire or at odds fire dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Let's dive in now to covering the future. We're recording this on wednesday Which means the nfl opener for the 100th season is tomorrow We can erin rogers and matt lafleur against mitral trebisky and matt naggy ed Looking at this game as we are again recording this on wednesday What do you see between the two sides here as the packers head down to chicago? Yeah, I mean I think in week one of the nfl you're just taking your nfl research from the pre season and applying it to What you think these lines are uh To see if there's value against lines. I've talked about green bay before I think the biggest factor is that erin rogers is going to be healthy this year That has not been the case over The last two years and I think that means a lot more than drama potential drama You know how he's going to work out with his new coach and matt lafleur I'm also high on the defense They have a lot of high draft picks heading into their second or third year in the secondary Guys like kevin king and jerry alexander and and josh jackson If those guys can take a leap that is going to be really good for that defense And they also beefed up the pass rush signing guys like the Zadaria smith and presson smith So I think they're going to be better on that side of the ball. I would lean towards over nine and a half winds probably wouldn't bet it just because it's the wrong way But i'm optimistic cautiously optimistic about the packers, but let's talk about chicago I think this has been a team that was they were very good last year But there there's all kinds of warning signs about why they're going to regress this year And most of them are on the defensive side of the ball They led the league in interceptions that 27 picks And that was six more than the next highest team in the nfl and it's just not it's just a rate that you just can't Continue So unlikely to get that number of picks again It's it's going to tend to regress the mean and that was a big part of why their defense was so good last year They were also particularly healthy football outsiders tracks games lost due to injury and they were fourth best in the nfl And they lose key pieces of the defense In the secondary And then they're also installing a new system Vic Fangio went over to Denver as the head coach and and Chuck Pagano is in as the new defensive coordinator So all reasons to think that they can't be as good as they were on defense last year Now that doesn't mean that they regressed to to league average by any means I I think it there's still going to be a very good unit But you just can't expect them to be that good And if they can't be that good They're not going to be able to carry this team like they did last year because I still think there's a lot of questions on the Offensive side of the ball Last year they were 13th when I look at success rate adjusted for shrink the schedule Which is good, but not a type of offense that can carry a team to a super bowl by any means Questions at the quarterback position. Mitchell Travisti was good last year He was not good as a rookie. He only completed about 59 of his passes Was much better last year completed about 67 of his passes And he looked great at times, especially on a Monday night game at Seattle But I still think there are questions about what he needs to get better because There's going to be some regression on the defensive side of the ball. So I have my doubts about Chicago When I do my numbers I take market win totals and I back out the rating for these teams That's consistent with you know The fact the Packers are going to expect to win nine and a half games The Bears are expected to win nine and a half games And then I can make a number for week one based on these market win totals My number comes out to two So expect Green Bay, sorry, Chicago at home to win by two. I think there's value Green Bay plus three here Uh, wouldn't be surprised if this ended up at two and a half by by the time we kick off Thursday night Interesting and you were talking about adjusted games lost and you go to football outsiders and look at that and Not only did Green Bay ad guys and free agency and not only did they add guys in the draft Both last year and this year Defensively, but they also ranked 30th and adjusted games lost on defense due to injury They were super banged up there and now those guys can come back That's a pretty big addition for this team Not to mention the fact that erin rogers was also hurt last year despite not missing games He was hurt and you could tell that throughout the entire season. So I am Impersonally on Green Bay as a team, which is why that and I'm skeptical of the Bears. I am Not fully sold on Mitchell Trabisky Which is a slight understatement given, you know, my more private thoughts about Mitchell from as a quarterback But I think that he was good in times last year. He was good at home, which worries me about this game It's weird how bad he was on the road And my guess is that he'll regress in the negative sense at home and regress in the positive sense on the road But at the end of the day, I would not expect another step forward here So it was very weird a weird year for Trabisky But given all the additions to Green Bay, I would also be in on them plus three for Thursday's game I want to talk college football for this week. And I think that this can kind of Play along with what we discussed before how people sometimes overreact to what they see in week one and Miami in week one lost in a weird fashion They were on the road in a standalone game But they lost to the eighth ranked team in Florida and UNC beats South Carolina at home and South Carolina is a good team So that was a good win for UNC and their first game with Mack Brownback Miami did benefit from some fumble luck in that game and Florida had some really bad penalties To keep Miami in that game So Miami very easily could have lost by more than they did But they also had 14 penalties for 118 yards themselves Now they're rested. They had a bi-week last week and UNC just played in an emotional victory over South Carolina If you look at Bill Connelly's sp plus ratings right now, Miami is ranked 21st in the nation Entering week two UNC is 50th and number fire looking at this game Projects Miami to win 31.43 to 21.88. That's projected final score. So You know a nine and a half point spread or so But this game is actually Miami minus four Against UNC right now at vandal sports, but it actually opened at Miami minus six and is now Miami minus four I would not be shocked if that number were to bounce back Before we get to saturday night as people adjust, you know, maybe realize that Miami's coming off a bi-week and stuff like that But I think that Based on last week, we maybe just a bit too high on UNC Off of one big game while underrating Miami After I thought was a good performance against florida and coming off a bi-week two If you look at odds fire right now 77 of the bets and 81 of the money are on Miami against the spread So I think that snagging that at minus four before it bounces back would be the way to go It could continue to shift towards UNC in which case maybe we're in the same spot We were talking about drew before where you know, you are kind of Buying against the market swimming upstream sometimes But I still think that I do like Miami minus four here now ed I went to the power rank check this before we recorded and UNC Miami are almost identical in your power rankings and UNC Is at home So am I dumb to like Miami minus four? What are your thoughts in that game? Well, I mean, I think Miami's interesting. I mean we talked about jaren. What it was a quarterback Uh, and how accurate it was even on balls that weren't complete Always given his receivers a chance putting balls in places that You'd expect an accurate quarterback and we know the defense can play and I agree with everything you said um about The performance against florida a very good team kind of very sloppy opening game You expect better from the defense. So, you know, I'm looking at my member numbers here. I have Miami by about two Yeah, um, I think there's upside to that team. So I don't know if I would necessarily trust that I mean, I think especially where the market's at now. I would I would I would stay away from this game Yeah, um, but you know, I like your arguments and I think uh, you know, especially with kind of the emotional high of north carolina Um Coming off a pretty emotional win in mac browns first game. We'll we'll see how that affects them I don't know what the how much it's worth in the line mac browns dancing skills Like is that worth six points? Maybe I don't know that could just totally blow my argument out of the water because mac brown Kind of got some moves. Like I don't want to go to outrageous here, but he kind of he could boogie a little bit So maybe that's worth something but I do like miami minus four against us or unc We'll be back with you on friday to preview week one of the 2019 nfl season should be a lot of fun talking with donnie right side Make sure you subscribe to the covering the spread podcast feed on spotify apple podcast Stitcher the google play store i heart radio wherever you get your podcast you can subscribe and get that that uh episode Right as it is posted ed. I'll talk to you again on friday anything big for you over at the power bank I know that your preview series is done. So congratulations on that Anything else coming up before friday? Um, well, I mean there's always the email newsletters that I sent out on thursday So, uh, I give a sample of pay uh, excuse me. I give a sample of predictions I usually say for paying members of the site such as the one. I just gave you about miami Uh, north carolina. These are my best numbers that have the most predictors in them You can get a sample by signing up for my free newsletter at thepowerrank.com All right, you can find that again at thepowerrank.com as I'd said and follow ed on twitter at the power rank I am at gymsonus j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin theobald. He is our producer. Thanks to cal for keeping us on the air and shopping up all these videos For the at fan dual twitter account big Thank you to drew martin for swinging by and spreading all of his awesome knowledge about college football for week two Follow him on twitter at drew martin betts. Of course Thank you to all of you for tuning in and checking out this episode of covering the spread back at you friday To talk a little nfl. Good luck with your college football bets this week and we'll talk to you again soon This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network