 Hey everyone, this is Dan with another episode of my Moderna and BioNTech videos. Recently, an analyst at Bank of America said that the price of Moderna was too high and that it was at a ridiculous level. The price of Moderna and BioNTech dropped soon after that. Are the prices really too high for these two stocks? I don't think so. I believe there's a lot more room for Moderna and BioNTech to move up. I will explain why in the next few minutes. This is a summary of what the analyst said. It was posted on August 10. The analyst, Jeff Mitchum, said that the price was unreasonable and ridiculous. At the time, Moderna was at $484 a share. Mitchum was comparing Moderna to Amgen, which is a 40-year-old company at $129 billion capitalization, whereas Moderna already reached $195 billion capitalization on August 10. And then also Merck, a 130-year-old company, was at $189 billion capitalization. And that's why Mr. Mitchum was at the opinion that Moderna was way overpriced. Is it correct? My answer is no. It's not correct because of quite a few reasons. Why do I think Moderna and BioNTech can still go up? First of all, the mRNA technology used by these two companies have developed vaccines that are more than 90% effective against the COVID-19 virus, at least the alpha variant. Whereas traditional flu vaccines and most out-of-vaccines are only 60-70% effective. So this is definitely a disruptive technology that's much better than anything we had previously. Another reason is that the development cycle for mRNA vaccines is extremely fast. It took them less than one or two months to develop the vaccine and took FDA six to eight months for emergency authorization. Definitely that's another groundbreaking revolutionary development. COVID vaccines are needed by almost everyone in the world, unlike any typical pharmaceutical products. And there are very few competitions against mRNA and BioNTech vaccines, as I already mentioned in my previous videos, when it comes to effectiveness against the COVID virus. Moderna and BioNTech definitely are the leaders in the field. If you look at how fast the COVID-19 virus has been mutating, it took only about a year and a half for the alpha strain, the original strain, to mutate into the very contagious delta variant. With that speed, I expect more variants and more contagious variants will surface in the near future, which will call for rapid development of booster vaccines. That means we will see continuous business opportunities for both Moderna and BioNTech. And finally, both companies have strong development pipelines. That means they will not just stop at the COVID vaccines, they will have other vaccines and drugs in the next few years, which will ensure steady income streams for both companies. I first posted this chart back in January of 2021. At a time, we're only about 30 days after the FDA emergency authorization for the vaccines. And I predicted that Moderna and BioNTech would follow the price trajectory of Regeneron and MGen after those two companies got the FDA approvals for their blockbuster drugs. And now, a few months later, we are at this point. As you can see, my prediction is coming to reality. In fact, the prices of Moderna and BioNTech actually have progressed even better than Regeneron and MGen. And with this trend, it's very possible that the prices of Moderna and BioNTech will double in the next two, three years. And that's why I'm so bullish about these two companies for the long term. If you like what you've seen so far, I'd like to encourage you to click the like, subscribe and notification button. That way you will receive notification as I post more videos in the future. It will also encourage me to create more videos like this. Thank you very much. Let's continue. Let's look at the volatility of Moderna and BioNTech. And that will explain why a lot of people, including a panel of American analysts, have been very concerned about the future of these two stocks. After peaking in August, both Moderna and BioNTech dropped also 28%. If you look at how they compare to SPOI and QQQ to broad market, definitely Moderna and BioNTech are much more volatile. But if you look at what happened last year, back in December of 2020, Moderna, which is the more volatile amount of two-stop, actually dropped 40% in December of 2020. And then in March of 2021, Moderna dropped another 35%, and then gradually recovered and finally got higher. And then again in May, it dropped 20% before it recovered and marched towards higher points. And that's why I feel that the most recent 28% drop is just a repeat of that volatility with the sound fundamentals of Moderna and BioNTech. And for the reasons that I'm going to explain in the next few minutes, I believe the prices of Moderna and BioNTech will continue to head up in the next few months. Let's review the prediction I made back on August 4th, 2021, when I posted the last video. At the time, I said that Moderna will be at $450 a share and BioNTech at $420 a share before the end of October 2021. At the time, Moderna was at $386 a share. As of yesterday, Moderna closed at $416. Definitely it moved up in the direction that I predicted. BioNTech, however, dropped a little bit and went from $351 on August 3rd to $334 on September 3rd. And I'll explain why it dropped in the short term. But I do think BioNTech will recover in the next few weeks. There are a lot of things that have happened in the last two, three weeks. In light of all those, will I be setting news price targets? I will explain that in the next few minutes. Stay tuned. At this point, I'd like to mention that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my stock trading strategies and analyses for educational purpose only so that you are going to buy and sell stocks. You should make your own decisions. You should definitely consult with the financial advisors. Let's continue. There are a few important news items that happened in the last two, three weeks. First of all, FDA gave the full approval to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. That was on August 23rd. And then it was reported that a third dose of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was found to be 86% effective in preventing COVID among the elderly. And based on the data from Israel, after the second injection of the Pfizer vaccine that happened in January, the effectiveness of the vaccine dropped to about 55% five, six months later. And that's why Israel has been administering the third dose to its citizens. Meanwhile, August 12th, FDA authorized additional vaccine doses for certain immunocompromised individuals. On August 27th, Biden said U.S. health officials were considering COVID booster shot at five months, moving up timeline with the third shot. However, just on September 5th, Biden's chief of staff said that they would be following the signs and might not actually be implementing the booster shot five months after the second shot. So the administration is still considering as to when they are going to implement the third COVID shot for most people. At this point, they only approve the booster shot for people who are compromised as far as immunity. In the meantime, Israel, they are already implementing the third shot. And actually, their green pass basically a system to allow people, this allow people to certain public places, expire six months after the second shot. So they have a very strict enforcement procedures for the third shot in Israel already. My prediction is that in the U.S., they will be implementing the third shot pretty soon, probably by October or November. And the same will happen in U.K. and E.U., which will lead to additional sales for Moderna and BioNTech. In the meanwhile, Italy also started to administer the third shot for the most vulnerable parts of its population. If you look at the new COVID cases, this is a situation in the United States. The daily new cases peaked around January 3rd of 2021. And then we see another peak now starting around July and it's been getting higher and higher all the way to August and only in the last few days that it started to go down. The distance between the first peak here and the second peak is just about five to six months. Primarily that's because of the Delta variant and also because the fact that the effectiveness of the vaccines have been fading over time. If you look at U.K., same pattern again. The second peak started to happen five, six months after the first peak in spite of the fact that high percentage of the population have received the COVID shot in the U.K., just like the case in the United States. This is Israel, again similar pattern. This peak here is on January 3rd and then now we're seeing yet another peak. Again, they are five, six months apart and that's why Israel is administering the third shot to its citizens. Similar pattern in Germany, although it's different in the way that they already have three big peaks. The first peak here is on January 3rd and then they have another peak in April and maybe that's because Germany was part of the EU. The rollout of the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccines were a little bit slower in the EU compared to the U.S., Israel, and U.K. and they didn't really get the situation under control until after April. But then again they are seeing a resurgence of daily new cases. If you look at what percentages of people have vaccinated in these developed countries, definitely we are seeing very high percentage numbers. The U.S. 52% of people received the first dose and 53% of people are fully vaccinated. And in Israel, 67% of the people first dose, 61% fully vaccinated and so on. But in spite of the high percentage of vaccination, we are still seeing the resurgence of new cases. And that's why I believe that the third COVID shot will be implemented in all these developed nations pretty soon. If you look at the entire world, definitely we see a peak here in January, another peak in April, late April, beginning May, and then now we are seeing another peak. And that's why the world still needs a lot of vaccines, a lot of effective vaccines such as the vaccines from Moderna and BioNTech. Meanwhile we heard that Moderna and BioNTech have been able to increase prices recently with a new contract. The main reason is because these two vaccines are much more effective than anything else in the market. On September 1st it was reported that Moderna's vaccine created twice as many antibodies as Pfizer's vaccine. And I guess because of this news, the BioNTech stopper has not been doing up as fast as Moderna in the last couple weeks. There's a caveat, however, the fact that the antibody count is higher doesn't mean the vaccine is actually more effective. This is just one piece of the data from a very broad scientific research. In my own opinion, I believe both the BioNTech vaccine and the Moderna vaccine are going to be the leading vaccines in the world to fight the COVID virus. There are other significant news that happened in the last few weeks. As of August 27, China missed the target date for proving the BioNTech vaccine and incidentally they do have a joint venture between Folsom Pharma based in China and BioNTech to make and sell the vaccine in China. However, the vaccine has not been approved by the Chinese government yet. And as of August 26, Pfizer and BioNTech signed a letter in 10 with a company in Brazil to produce COVID vaccine. BioNTech and Pfizer also signed an agreement with a South African company to produce vaccine for distribution in Africa. And they also have an agreement to produce vaccine in Singapore for distribution in Asia. And meanwhile, as of July 21, Moderna joined the S&P 500 index. That's another reason why Moderna has been going up faster than BioNTech in the last two weeks. In June, it was reported that UAE and Bahrain have started to offer the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine as booster shots. These two countries previously offered vaccines produced by China, but later on when they found the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine to be more effective they started to roll out the BioNTech vaccine as a booster shot and supplement the Chinese vaccines. And then South Korea has a deal to produce locally the vaccine developed by Moderna. Basically, we're seeing the Moderna vaccine and BioNTech vaccine are being produced all around the world to fulfill the demands from different parts of the world. From an investor standpoint, that's really very bullish because that means a lot of revenues will be generated by these two companies as they roll out a production around the world. Here is an interesting development with regard to treatment for COVID-19. Regeneron developed an antibody cocktail known as Regencove and is being fully approved in Japan. Meanwhile, it received emergency authorization in 20 countries, including US, Europe, India, Switzerland, and Canada. Does this compete with the Moderna and BioNTech vaccines? No. Why? Because the treatment of the Regeneron antibody cocktail costs about $1,500 per person. Nevertheless, this is a very significant development. It's definitely a grateful humanity. And incidentally, I recently published a video on Regeneron and I have bought shares of Regeneron, partially because of this development. Let's look at the evaluation of Moderna and BioNTech. First of all, let's look at what the company Moderna has planned for production. They are planning to produce up to 3 billion doses in 2022. And for 2021, they plan to produce between 800 million doses to 1 billion doses. These are very important figures that we should use in our calculations. And then for me to calculate the stock price of Moderna, I started out by benchmarking other leading pharmaceutical companies. Here I'm listing the market caps, as well as the trailing and forward P- ratios and PAKE ratios of the leading pharmaceutical companies. Moderna is here and BioNTech is here. Then I look at the profit margin of Moderna and BioNTech. Based on the latest quarterly earnings, Moderna's net margin is 63.8% and BioNTech at 52.5%. Definitely very impressive net margins. Therefore, for my stock price calculation, I use the assumption of 12.4 forward P- ratio, which is very reasonable compared to the P- ratio of all these other companies. And then I assume a 50% net margin, which is definitely conservative, comparing to the actual net margin from the second quarter. And then I use a company's projected bias for 2021 and 2022. And with those numbers, I'm able to calculate the stock prices for 2021, 2022, and 2023. And they range from 356 to more than 1,000, down to 614 as demand decreases in 2023. Although that's a very conservative assumption, also I assume a decrease in the price per dose for the Moderna vaccine. But in fact, as we saw a couple of minutes ago, Moderna has been able to increase the price of the vaccine. So there are a lot of conservative elements built into this calculation. And with these numbers, I've decided to set a target of $450 to be achieved by the end of November 2021. And I'm pretty sure the price will continue to go up beyond $450. As the news events continue to unfold, I will most likely revise my target upward. With regard to Pfizer and BioNTech, they have planned to produce 3 billion doses in 2021 and 4 billion doses in 2022. I'm pretty sure they will fulfill those volumes or probably even aim for higher volumes later on. Similar to the calculation for Moderna, I am able to calculate the stock prices for BioNTech for 2021, 22, and 23, and they range from 671 to 1,022 and back down to 575. And based on this range, I decided to temporarily set my price target at $420 a year to be achieved by the end of November 2021. Again, just like Moderna, BioNTech's stock price will go much higher than $420 a year. And as news events start to unfold, I will most likely revise my price target upward. Let's look at the other analyst's opinions. I'm comparing here the ratings from today, September 6, to the rating at a time when I published my last video around August 3. As far as price, the Moderna price went up from 386 to 416, definitely very positive. And my target actually stayed the same for the two videos, $450 a year, definitely still higher than today's price. Yahoo! Maintained their buy rating, although their rating scale went from 2.5 to 2.7, that means it deteriorated a little bit. Nevertheless, it's still a buy rating. The high target went up substantially from 246 to 463. And the average price target went from 185 to 286. Again, that's a big jump. The low target is still 83. Moose Nebelier gave them an overall A rating, which is a strong buy. Subbrans.com lowered their moderate buy rating to a whole rating. However, they raised their high target from 353 to 463. The average target was increased from 218 to 285. And the low rating actually went a little bit lower from 100 to 85. CN Money changed their rating from buy to hold, but they increased their high target from 353 to 463, and also increased their median target from 194 to 363 and keeping the same low target at 83. For BioNTech, the price dropped a little bit between August 3rd and September 6th. And our target is 420 to be achieved by the end of November 2021. Yaw Business maintained a buy rating at 2.5. And the high rating went up from 255 to 383. That's a big jump. Average rating from 201 to 276. A substantial jump also. Low rating actually went down from 109 to 191. Moose Nebelier really likes to stop also. Gave them an overall A rating. TipRange.com upgraded BioNTech from hold to moderate buy and increased the high target from 400 to 451. Also increased the average target from 218 to 345 and increased the low rating from 133 to 146. CN Money maintained their hold rating, but increased the high target from 457, increased the medium target quite substantially from 201 to 405 and increased the low target from 108 to 155. Overall, I see very positive developments from analysts and I'm comfortable with my price target of 450 for Moderna and 420 for BioNTech. Actually, I've been ahead of the professional analysts and they're just catching up. I'd like to recap my forecast. My price target for Moderna is $450 a share and BioNTech is $420 a share to be achieved by the end of November 2021. And the latest price is Moderna at $416 a share and BioNTech at $334 a share. Since this video is running a little bit long already, I will skip the technical analysis. I will produce another video just on technical analysis from Moderna and BioNTech in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to encourage you to subscribe to my Twitter account because I'll be sharing my trades with my subscribers and I will be sending out any new developments by way of my Twitter account. Again, I'd like to encourage you to click the like, subscribe and notification button and as usual, I very much appreciate your comments, questions and suggestions. I have been having some very interesting dialogues with my subscribers. This wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.