 Good day, fellow investors. Being a great investor means first and foremost being a great businessman, a great entrepreneur. Warren Buffett is first an entrepreneur and only secondly an investor. So as a businessman and entrepreneur, the first thing he has to do is listen to his customers. I decided to listen to my customers and fulfill their wishes. And one of the most requested wishes is for me to make a cheaper product. A product for the student, for the part-time investor. As you know, I run the Sven Kirlin Stock Market Research Platform for $349, which is, I still believe, an enormous bargain. But $349 to pay in one time in a lump sum can be significant. So I have decided to make an educational stock month, stock idea per month kind of course for $9 per month or if you want to take the yearly discount for $89 per year. In that, I will discuss one idea, one stock that I own or that I cover or that I look at and really explain my strategy for that stock in that moment in time. In that way, I think I will be able to fulfill your idea, your investments with one important peak per month to really strengthen your portfolio for a very, very low cost. So the stock ideas and analysis for the small investor will give you a monthly idea. What should you expect? So 12 ideas per year, I will clearly say which ones are stocks to buy for me, why I bought them, what's my strategy, why I hold them, etc. Plus, I will do my best to put the analysis in an investment educational environment, focusing on the risk and rewards. And I'll also share my earnings model in Excel so that you can play and practice within Excel with it and see, okay, what are the expected returns depending on what might happen. On the price, as many wanted something cheap, the price will be $9 per month. That's affordable for everybody. That's what, less than two cups of coffee at Starbucks or $89 per year. So for less than two cups of coffee, I will give you a good long-term investing idea. Just a reminder, my stock market research platform with all the trades, all the portfolio, all the research, everything is still just $349 per month, which means less than $30 per month, which makes it an absolute bargain. But I understand to pay once $9 or $349 can be a big difference. So for all those that requested it, here is the cheap version. And now the best way to explain this is to give an example. Okay, how will this look like? I will make a video and the report plus the Excel on a stock. I have already uploaded the first idea of the month, which is my favorite minor at this moment in time, with good short-term and long-term potential. But to give you an idea of how would this look like, I've decided to summarize my view about Facebook, which is a publicly covered stock that I cover on this channel. So it will give you just an idea, okay, what is Sven doing? What are the points? How will this look like? And what do I get from it? So let's start with the Facebook summary, which will be a video that you can expect to get once a month plus the short report that's already published there. So you can check it for free as it has a free preview. Let's start with Facebook. So I will do Facebook's stock analysis. This is the 22nd of February, when I do this company overview, earnings expectations and models, risks, conclusion and investment strategy. Most of us know Facebook, what they do. It owns Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Messenger and other interesting developments like VR, AI, etc. So let me discuss, what do I think are the core advantages that Facebook as a company has? The first thing is data-driven corporate decision-making. Everything that they do, they first test it on a small batch and then they test it on a bigger batch, then a bigger batch and only then, if successful, if it led to the wanted results, only then they deploy it globally. So everything that happens in Facebook is data-driven. It's not corporate-driven, top down the boss says, let's do this and then count the debt later. So that's something very smart and that's something to allow a big company like Facebook to be flexible, which is one advantage that I really, really like in this social media environment. The second thing is unmonetized potential. Given Facebook's two plus billion users, the strong network and the longer people use it, the stronger the network is, the potential for monetization gets constantly bigger and bigger. Facebook has been very patient in monetizing this, but there is so much they can do and they will do it slowly in the future. A growth rate of 10, 15, 20, 30% means slow in relation to what they can do, but slow and steady is much better for the long term. A simple but potentially big revenue sourcing is Instagram shopping and they don't even need to compete with Amazon. They can collaborate with Amazon. Another potential monetization bonus is the price of Facebook ads and as a businessman, as an entrepreneur, we will soon start testing them because I really want to see, okay, if I spend $10 to come in front of a thousand people that are interested in investing and if I can sell two free books, then the Facebook ad is really, really cheap and that's something I will be testing and reporting also to you to see how it goes. So in that line, when Facebook grows, when digital advertising grows, when Facebook gets compared to Madison Avenue on an attention base, okay, how much customers can I reach with Facebook? How much can I reach with, I don't know, a billboard on a page or a page in a magazine? When you see that, then you see that there is potential for Facebook ads. The revenue Facebook gets to double or even quadruple over the next 10 years. So that's another positive that I see as a strong factor for investing in Facebook. And number three is the unknown. Who would have guessed that Instagram would be something in 2012 when Facebook went public? Therefore, there might be something brewing there that we cannot even imagine that might be something extremely big in 2029, something that might add another 50 billion in revenue, thus another 250 billion in market capitalization on top of everything that we already discussed. So now that we have the story, let's discuss the earnings and make it a model. So the key drivers to investment returns are always earnings. Facebook's earnings per share in 2018 have been 7.57. Revenue growth over 2018 was 37% while earnings grew 40% that those are huge numbers. So for the future, it all depends on the growth rate, but as value and investors, we have to be conservative, estimate what it's likely in a weak environment and then see whether the current stock price justifies the risk and reward. I have my small earnings model using current earnings and plotting a growth rate not of 40%, but just 20% for the first 5 years and 10 years for the subsequent 5 years with the terminal stock value, stock price after 10 years having a valuation just of 10 on the earnings. Why just 10 and not the current price earnings ratio of 20? Well, better be conservative than sorry. And even if I put all those conservative numbers, the growth, the valuation in this model, the present value with a 15% discount rate thus expecting a 15% return still gives me a present value of 149 for the stock, which is extremely low. If I just change the price earnings ratio to 15 after 10 years, then the present value immediately jumps to 181. And you can say, okay, if Facebook grows for 20% and then 10%, the stock price will be 455, not including dividends in 2029. So that's almost a triple on the current stock price over 10 years, which is not bad when you add the dividends, the buybacks, etc. So this is how I see Facebook. And I really think that if one invests in Facebook, there is a good chance that the returns are 15% over the long term for the long term investor. If in the short term something happens, Facebook increases the growth, things are going good, there is positive trend towards the ads, the price goes up. We might even see the stock price double very quickly, much sooner than I see in the long term, which is something to take advantage. You buy, you sell sooner, you take the money, and you say thank you Facebook. However, before going deeper, we always have to think about the risks. The key risk is a recession. Advertising budgets get cut. Many people that sell shoes on Facebook go out of business or sell some courses, and Facebook's revenue growth might stall. You will soon see headlines like the death of Facebook, like it has been many times the case for Apple. This would hit the stock severely as we have seen how just a bit of increased spending on security pushed the stock down during 2018. However, I would see that also as another buying opportunity because the trend is there, so it will be volatile. If I can buy below the trend and sell above the trend, I make huge returns. Then we have regulatory risks, politicians will like to attack companies like this when somebody gets strong and in power. As a politician, you can always text them and gain some political points. The biggest risk for Facebook is that it starts losing its user. It's not something essential in our lives, and we can easily change it for something else without meaningful change in the quality of life. As it is impossible to know how will the social media environment look like in 2029, it's also impossible to predict what will happen and one has to keep an eye on the real story. For now, we see a stable number of users in developed countries, growing number in developing countries, which still bodes well for Facebook's story. But we have to really see, okay, how will these numbers develop over time? And this is the key risk to watch. If these things start to deteriorate materially, there is something new, then it will be the time to sell Facebook, even at a loss, because then the story will be different. So always keep in mind the risks when investing. For now, it has a strong mode, everything is well. So on my portfolio, on my investment in Facebook, I have two portfolios. One is the lump sum portfolio and one is the growth portfolio, where I add $1,000 per month, euros in my case. And I have Facebook in the growth portfolio. Why I don't have it in the lump sum portfolio? Because of the risk, I don't know what will the social media environment be in five to 10 years. And I know that Facebook isn't a necessity. Well, it is to some, but especially if you're a teenager, then Instagram is a necessity. But it isn't really a necessity for our lives. We can interchange it with something else, which makes Facebook a little bit risky for a lump sum big stake of the portfolio, but a good idea for a growth portfolio, because you never know what might happen there. So I bought Facebook the first time for $174, because it hit my 15% required return. When it fell, I bought more at $136, and now I'm still holding both the purchases. I'm not yet that exposed to stock, so I don't think about selling yet. If it goes to $220, $240, then it would be only an 8% return in my model, and then I might think about selling. So this is my story about Facebook. I have already uploaded on the stock idea platform a new story about an even better investment that is part of my lump sum portfolio that I think has a great risk reward situation at the current moment. So please, if you are interested in such an overview of a stock, such stocks that I see as good investments, then you might want to subscribe to the stock market idea of the month. My subscribers of the big research platform of the stock market research platform will have this as a bonus for free. So thank you for watching. I'll do my best to really find good picks, good educational picks to help the small investor as much as I can, as helping small investors is something I think very, very important. I have renounced already to manage a lot of millions, because I really want to see whether I want to be just someone who services the big and the rich, or I want also to help the little guy out there. So I'm still thinking, balancing things out, but that's a different story. Thank you for watching. Check it out and I'll see you in the next video.