 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire Dot com we're today. We are getting you said for all that conference tournament Juiciness we're talking men's college basketball today with Edward e-gross You can find him on the odds and eds podcast and the fan dual podcast network You also find him on the bracket wisdom podcast series with dr. Ed Fang find him on Twitter at ed with sports also peppered on an SMU Edward is everywhere including today's podcast. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com Joint here as always by dr. Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power ink dot com And of course as well on the football analytics show in the bracket wisdom series and thank you for taking time out of your Tremendously busy schedule to still grant us with your present bless us with your presence. You're uncovering the spread. How you doing today? I'm doing great. You know, it's kind of getting towards a inching past the middle of the second half in a basketball game and getting towards crunch time With March Madness and getting ready for the tournament. So it's pretty good. You know, I kind of woke up yesterday morning and Found that my college basketball code was missing some games and missing some teams, you know Top teams or anything like that. But that's that's a bummer of a thing to realize, you know, this kind of late in the game So probably doesn't change it doesn't change my predictions too much, but it was good to kind of fix that and Powering through a lot of episodes of the bracket wisdom and it's been fantastic having Edward help me with these because it gives me You know, it gives me a little bit freedom to be like, oh what what's going on in those net rankings Let me dive in and was actually able to do I think I was able to explain some stuff that I hadn't really seen out there. Yeah, and then, you know, just some some other episodes Talk about string to schedule adjustments and my and my methods and stuff. So Yeah, it's been it's been fun having them aboard and Yeah, looking forward to bringing everyone a lot of good stuff And I think the reassuring thing is that you know the podcast is in good hands with that Like I think for that for me. I I would have nerves handing over any portion of like podcast of the people if I didn't have a lot of faith in them Right as content producers as smart people and looking like people but with Edward e-gross. There's no concern there Yeah, no exactly and Drew Martin was doing videos for me this fall like Same thing. There was you know, you just just let him do his thing Absolutely, we're gonna get more conference tournament talk today, but also for next week We're gonna have our March Madness Bracket preview which we've done now I guess three of the past four years or the past three years if you don't count the pandemic year We're gonna have that Monday night. It'll be live on the Fandall YouTube, Twitch, Facebook and Periscope pages That'll be at 6 p.m. Eastern. We'll have Dr. Ed Fang naturally there with myself Aaron Dolan of Fandall and sports grid will be there and also Bennett Corcoran of number fire breaking down what number fires numbers say and Ed I think that that's a fun discussion because we talked about the brackets, obviously But the the best part, I mean, I love your numbers of power ink But I think the strategy discussion is equally important to have the discussions about way to strategize for your tournaments and I think that that's an important discussion to have and I think that I'm looking forward to having that conversation with you Once again already on Monday, which seems a while that it's already coming up next. Yeah it is completely wild that Monday is coming up so soon, but But it's gonna be great. Yeah. Yeah, so make sure you are subscribed to the Fandall YouTube page 6 p.m. Eastern on Monday. I'll tweet that out later on we'll put that in the covering the spread podcast feed after the fact Also on the heat check fantasy podcast feed The number fire daily fantasy podcast feed so you can find it in both places But just make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And you will find that if you can't catch it live after it is recorded on Monday night We're gonna get to Edward e-gross in just one second. You can find him on Twitter I had with sports check him out on the odds and eds podcast feed on the fangirl podcast network and also On the bracket wisdom podcast series He is also a professor of Pepperdine and an SMU will talk to him about his move out west in just a bit But first with conference tournaments starting this week There is no better place to bet on college basketball than on fangirl sports book right now fangirl is offering college Basketball parlay insurance place a five plus leg parlay on college basketball And if you hit all the legs except one you get up to twenty five dollars back in site credit Make your parlays today and bet on the fangirl sports book must be 21 plus and present in Colorado Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee Virginia or West Virginia first online real money wager only refund issued is a non-withdrawable site credit That expires in 14 days Restrictions apply see full terms at sportsbook.fangirl.com a gambling problem in Colorado called 1805 224 700 in Iowa call 1 800 bets off in Indiana call 1 809 with it in Comper in Michigan for confidential help call 1 802 70 711 7 in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Virginia call 1 800 gambler in Tennessee call the Tennessee redline 1 889 979 or in West Virginia visit 1 800 gambler Net let's bring on Edward E. Gross now find him on Twitter at Ed with sports Check him out on the odds and Ed pot odds and Ed's podcast and also on the bracket wisdom podcast series on the football Analytics show we're gonna get you set for betting this week's slate of men's college basketball tournament outright Covering the present Let's bring Edward E. Gross into covering the spread to take a look at this week's men's college basketball tournament betting and Edward We got to get a life update here because since the last time we talked to you you have moved You are now out in California teaching at Pepperdine in addition to still being at SMU. So You're just filling a lot of a lot of roles right now. How are things going for you out in California? Yeah moved all the way out to Los Angeles, and I feel like I'm really embracing the West Coast lifestyle I've been eating a lot more kale now than ever before Fewer process foods enjoying the sunshine a heck of a lot my goodness So it feels like any kind of landscape you can imagine that's warm weather is here Go out to the ocean enjoy that go up to a canyon and hike I love to hike and so there are plenty of great challenging trails around here There's the valley. There's you know desert landscape not that far from here it feels like LA is wonderful and that just about anything you could ever imagine is here and You know granted we're still in the middle of a pandemic So I haven't been exploring just a ton, but it's it's been a blast trying to figure out where everything is and you know Figuring out how to time things so you don't hit too much traffic, but otherwise it's been just a blast And I'm really happy I'm here. Yeah, I think that it's exciting to see you out in LA Because obviously like there's a lot of stuff out there and hopefully it'll be even better post pandemic But how's Pepperdine? You know you started your first class there not too long ago How have things been going there thus far? Oh Pepperdine has been just terrific and and obviously it's one of the more beautiful campuses If not the most beautiful scenery being right there on the ocean right on PCH see I'm getting the lingo and Word But that's that's the thing is that you know the campus is gorgeous the faculty they've been just unbelievable and really supportive You know getting me on board teaching me everything students have been just terrific really ambitious Really excited to continue to teach teaching statistics to them And it's it's a great hybrid in terms of you know what they want to do in terms of their communication careers How statistics play a role in that as well And so it basically you know plays into my wheelhouse of combining stats and journalism and can't wait to see how things come together But you're studying SMU too. So yeah, how like I know you can teach remote But like what's it like teaching at two separate universities simultaneously? So they have two different ways of doing things two different software programs two different sets of meeting structures and so It's basically being technologically bilingual so to speak and yeah, it's a little bit challenging But I am up for it. That sounds good and Edward You're not really in the California lingo until you start using the word dude a lot more So well, we'll need you to keep working on that. So I have to replace y'all with dude Taxes to California. Okay. I made the exact same transition There was a lot of y'all when I was in Houston and there's a lot of dudes when you get up to California That's true. We do have the same path here. I didn't think about that, but you're right We do have Ed going from rice out to Stanford and now Edward going to SMU and Pepperdine So I think that there's a lot of parallelism and now you're on the same podcast together too at the bracket wisdom series So there's just a lot of cohesion between you two not to mention the name thing now. What's the what's the Michigan? lingo like what do I replace dude with if ever I feel like Detroit comes a calling I Don't know You can still use dude people look at me a little weird. It's no big deal. Okay, that's fine But yeah, there's no there's no, you know fallback to me like even like in the Midwest Like I don't know what the fallback is in terms of that crutch. It's dude Okay, I feel like those are the rules bro. Bro's probably a good one and when you get on campus and Depends on how confrontational you want to be because like in the Midwest champ is a good one to set people off So like if you want to set some fires Relationship wise champ is always good champ. What about chief? I've heard chief alive chief's pretty bad, too Yeah Like on Twitter if someone gets irritating you can go there if you want to ratchet it up a little bit I would recommend it's I can lead to a good Tuesday night from entertainment perspective So let's talk about what we brought you on here to discuss Edward And that's the men's college basketball conference tournaments and our listeners know you for your NFL analysis You're a college football analysis, but we never had you want to talk college basketball before so We know your approach for football heavily based in analytics based in numbers What is it like for you with college basketball? Are you leaning on numbers there, too? Which numbers are you leaning on? If so, what's your approach to betting college basketball? Really, I think when it comes to college basketball the process I don't think is that different from college football in fact I might even argue that NFL and college football are More different than say college football and college basketball and that is in large part because in College football college basketball you have a limited schedule in limited number of data points whereas in Proffootball and the NBA, you know, you are basically You may not be playing everybody or you do or you come close to it But overall strength of resume strength of schedule I don't think matters as much as say at the collegiate level and so in terms of an overall process I'm I do spend a good bit of time looking into college basketball and who particular teams have played Now, there are other things that matter as well pace of play when you're looking at totals that matters offensive defensive efficiency in terms of how many points you score per possession how many you allow per defensive possession and There's not an EPA per play and basketball per se But you know the reason why I bring that up is because I think everything deserves context Where games have been played matters a good bit. How much travel have you done? And so there are and I feel like this never gets talked about enough There are conferences conferences in college basketball where all the teams are kind of jam-packed in a relatively small radius So take the Ohio Valley Conference, for instance Southeast Missouri State Murray State Tennessee Martin, they're not that far from each other They're about an hour and a half two-hour drive down a few back roads But then you get to say the American Conference and you're pretty much going from sea to shining sea And you may have two games in the middle of a week like a Wednesday Saturday or Thursday Saturday Something like that and I think that does have a more significant toll And so as far as data resources are concerned, you know Ken Palm's obvious place But I also like Bartorovic a lot Bartorovic comm So let's say if you have an injury or a significant lineup change and you need to you know sleuth it out a little bit in In terms of figuring out okay, how will this impact pace of play not having this guy or how much did this guy contribute in terms of Offits of efficiency that certainly helps a good bit in terms of those missing pieces And so the process isn't that different. I think the key variables are also the same and Overall it still makes for an exciting venture Sounds good. So we have all the brackets set in the college basketball conference tournaments So does that I mean are you more inclined for betting games this week? Or are you trying to look at futures for who's gonna win it because we have the brackets now? I think it's gonna be a mixture of both if I'm not finding say too much value and a favorite Then I might try and go after specific games or if there's a some red flag in terms of particular match-up, then I'll certainly go that route, but Even though travel is not as big an indicator to say like offensive efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule Something I know you and I had have talked about a good bit If you're looking for a smaller conference where no one really stands out But a team has like a home court advantage or something close to it I think there can be value there and for instance, let's go back to the American for a bit Houston minus 165 You know, obviously, they're the favorite. Obviously, they should be in consideration for a play That league may not send anyone else to the tournament And so the question is if you're looking for a long shot in the American where are you going to find one and The tournament is going to be played in Fort Worth My SMU Mustangs are just down the road on I-30. They're plus 650 They haven't played a game since February 8th and so we've pretty much forgotten about them and they also didn't have their head coach for a lengthy stretch of the season and They are probably the second or third most talented team in the conference So that to me is the type of long shot that if you're going after a futures bet You should be looking for something in a you know either a super competitive conference or a place where there's not an obvious long shot and The market is not going to figure out where the odds really should be and a motivation disparity to there if Sure neat incentive to win make the tournament stuff like that that could definitely push things as well Now we're recording here on Tuesday and as of now there are no odds for the Big 10 up on Fanjul Sports Book for some reason But regardless let's move on and talk much here in yeah Come on John But there are no odds as of right now up on Fanjul Sports Book We can talk in general about the term we kind of know Michigan the favorite Illinois Iowa Purdue Ohio State those are the main teams Standing out based on the odds at other places So Edward what is your read on the Big 10 entering this tournament any teams you have your eye on? What are your thoughts in general on the Big 10 tournament starting on Wednesday? I? Have become a huge fan of Illinois over these last few weeks I I just think that they look incredibly athletic skillful quite fast The last loss that Illinois had at Michigan State awful shooting day for them, especially in the first half Those are going to happen and Michigan State is playing well now perhaps COVID hurt them earlier in the year So I don't necessarily chalk that up to to being a bad loss I think I chalk that up to being in a really competitive Big 10 conference But if you're looking for a value play, let's say you want to go after a team that has to play in an extra round Given the structure of the Big 10 where are at the top four seeds play the fewest games And then after that you have additional rounds And so if you're looking for a team that has to play an extra game, but still could make a run I think I like Ohio State here fourth in the league and effective field will percentage Free throw rate really really good meaning they get calls go to the line make their shots from the charity stripe high ceiling for EJ Liddell. This is also a team that was ranked quite high not that long ago Maybe slipped a little bit, but overall Ohio State has done a lot of really impressive things and I think playing that extra game will You know add a little bit extra payout if you're looking for that long shot Yeah, that sounds good. I definitely agree with you on Illinois And that's maybe a kind of popular thing to say right now after what they did to Michigan on the road without this Umu and winning at Ohio State, but I feel like that's a pretty high ceiling team. So Definitely agree with you there. Let's move on to the Big 12 Baylor is a favorite and minus 140 you just polish your episode on Baylor for the bracket wisdom series But obviously very difficult conference and you made to be talking about them more You see any value in this conference? I See value in Baylor. I don't see a ton of value I think I would qualify it as decent, but only decent and Baylor certainly best shooting team in the league Defensively they could be better, but Jared Butler is unbelievable so much fun to watch player of the year candidate as far as I'm concerned Baylor could have the best backcourt in the country Gonzaga obviously has a great argument as far as that's concerned But you know Baylor is certainly part of that conversation as well But as for Butler good size for scoring port guard Point guard Davion Mitchell great vision Where I do see value though in the big 12. I think is in texas at plus 600 Preseason numbers were very good for the longhorns in part because they've recruited so well, especially with greg brown Their problem seems to be that they turn the ball over so gosh darn much pardon my french And they don't force turnovers very much either and you know, I think it's really worth mentioning whenever you talk about texas Andrew jones has been just an incredible story had a leukemia diagnosis just a few years ago Wasn't sure if he'd ever play again. He lost 40 pounds at one point in the hospital He has come through. He hit that game winner Against west virginia three years after his uh diagnosis And if you're looking for that emotional rallying cry something that really motivates the team This may be the time for that to really kick in a little bit And sometimes these things matter just a little bit more and texas. I think as well as it's one of those interesting teams When you're looking at motivation Where exactly are they going to be seated? They're in kind of this weird spot where they do have a volatile resume to look at some good wins some bad losses The big 12, you know has a nice wide spectrum And this is a team where if they win the big 12, they could have a rather fortunate Solid seed You know the the possibilities are there for them. And so I think motivation emotional rallying cry You know great recruit and greg brown some good talent coming in I can see texas making a run here as a You know decent value at plus 600. Yeah, six to one for texas as the Are tied with west virginia for the third favorite in the big 12 catching edwards eye there. Let's move to the sec Pretty wide open things right now over there. You got alabama plus 240 is a favorite But five total teams are seven to one are shorter on the sec side So what do you see in this conference any value in outrides in this one as conferences staying away from what do you see in here? I think of all the favorites in all of the conference tournaments I think alabama might be my favorite of all of them because I think and also, you know shameless plug bracket wisdom series alabama is one of those uh teams where I don't think the identity or the reputation Is quite accurate in terms of how the pundits have been uh classifying them Yeah, alabama hoists a lot of threes they do that but to me the defense is the best trait And I know three point shooting defense is inconsistent from game to game because uh, you can you can out shoot a three point shooting defense But I think part of the reason why the three point shooting defense has been so strong for bamma is just because They get off to such a hot start Then they have that nice big lead and then teams have to play catch up And so opponents have to rush their threes and it seems to be a little bit more Situational than say anything that alabama is doing per se But even then Two point shooting defense hasn't been bad either and even on a poor shooting night I trust alabama more than anyone else in the sec and it does seem like that this conference has a history No offense sec But it does seem like that the reputation in this league is being top heavy And I feel like that this year is no different arkansas. Yeah, they're solid tennessee could be good But they've been sputtering down the stretch even though they had that win over florida Really no one else to me passes the eye test and so if you believe in motivation at all There's that outside outside outside chance Alabama could get a one seed depending upon what happens in the big 10 tournament I feel like they're going to settle on a two But still though they want to make sure they secure that too And so motivation still proving itself as uh, you know, one of the elite teams nationally I think alabama is a great play here Any interest in, uh, kentucky possibly the most talented team in the the conference and and certainly a team that needs to win To make the nc double a tournament Not at all Not at all It's so weird that kentucky, you know, even now That point guard play has been just so suspect and how in the world are you john calipari and kentucky Arguably the greatest program in the history of college basketball And you can't get a point guard every single second of the calendar year Like how do you not have this, you know ready and set to go? It's it is concerning I you know, it's also a covet season. So, you know, how how judgmental can you really get but Boy, it's just been baffling why things haven't turned out better for them Excellent So go ahead Ed. Oh any other conferences that stand out to you based on the odds that fandall sports book Yeah pack 12 I'm here Pack 12. I think also, uh, you know, it has some real value. I think colorado Bigger payout in the pack 12 even though the power rank has the buffalos ahead of usc Ken palm has usc in colorado kind of neck and neck But there was an extra plus 40 in it for you if you go with colorado over usc Buffaloes definitively beat the trojans twice mckinley right been sensationalized of late I just don't think the market has caught up to colorado yet. And so I like, uh, you know, a few extra Shekels going after The buffalos there and I think for a little bit of extra fun colorado state out of the mountain west By far the best shooting team in the league They're at plus 400 not a great offensive rebounding team, but if they get hot for several games They have a great shot there And two stray guests last week we had andy molitor on and he was talking taking a look at these This week's tournaments. He said colorado state a team that caught his eye Now edward is on it as well. Maybe uh, colorado state to stand out here Uh for maybe that's a sign if two people are on it here dude Dude embrace it. There you go. There you go. There's the california coming through love it It helps talking pack 12 as well, you know, really for sure It'll take a while We're going to get you there. That is edward egros Make sure you follow him on twitter at edwards sports and check out both the podcast the odds neds podcast over on the Fandall podcast network and of course Check out the bracket wisdom podcast on the football analytics show podcast feed edward. We appreciate the time Good luck to you with your comfort tournament bets and hopefully we'll talk to you here again soon about Probably another sport. I don't know what to add one more to your plate because why not surfing Yeah Surfing analytics coming soon coming soon to covering the spread. Thank you. I'd really appreciate it. You bet Covering the future Big thank you once again to edward egros for swinging by and breaking down the men's college basketball conference tournament Outrides and ed I wanted to go back to something that edward discussed when we were talking about texas He was talking about how they were highly ranked coming into the year And when we talked with you in the past about march madness You've mentioned how that does factor in to your model, you know, because Wisdom of crowds going in is important. You know talent is important and stuff like that How does that change for this year because we've seen teams like duke in kentucky Have really rough years but like the the The logic still applies So will you still factor in preseason rankings as heavily as you did in the past? Are you altering it because of coven and the alteration that that or what's your process there? In some sense, it's ready in my numbers So, I mean, I'll be you know for for my members I'll be using an ensemble model that has you know a tiny preseason component But it also has a market component that remembers. I mean There's not as much weight on, you know, the first game of the season But, you know, it still remembers a little bit of what happened early in that season I do think it's critical You know, I'll give you a couple examples albama has been great When you look at their performance on the court, I mean, there's no doubt that they've you know in terms of my Team rankings, which is margin of victory adjusted for strength of schedule They've been the best team in the sec and I love Nate oates as a coach He's a guy that I I kind of put him equal to juan howard for the michigan job When juan took the job But I'm you know, they were not they were uh, I'm looking right now. They were Like 25th in the preseason coaches poll didn't didn't quite make it in the preseason api poll And you can kind of see why like there's a lot of really good college players on there But there's not a ton of nba talent. Herbert jones is a is a 6-8 guy that I think is going to play in the nba Um can get things done on both ends of the court. I think he's a great player But when you compare them to maybe some of the other teams that are contending Uh, I just don't see as much talent there. So that's maybe one example Of a team that you're looking at and um, so yeah, I mean, I think it still does matter Because the whole idea about the preseason polls and the preseason numbers Especially the preseason polls is that it's getting you an assessment of talent, right? Like it's getting you assessment about how good Um, these teams are and you know, Gonzaga was first in the preseason api poll They've lived up to that Baylor was number two They've lived up to that villanova was number three. Eh, not so much and now count the glassbees out with with the knee injuries. So You know, I still think it's a very, uh, I think it's I think it's a very important tool I think there's a lot of kind of nuance in figuring out, you know, exactly, you know, michigan's a good example, right? Like they were 25th in the preseason poll Um, they were, you know, I think that's roughly right if you didn't think hunter dickinson was going to be a superstar Uh, which he has completely been I think illinois was eighth in the preseason poll I think that is an underestimate because they have a freshman named carbello that is fantastic And I don't think anyone knew quite how good he was going to be so Uh, it's it's all about, you know, it's one factor in the analysis. Yeah And that's one thing we'll discuss on monday's live show. We'll talk about strategy talk about ways you should account for the decision-making of the public in filling out your bracket monday 6 p.m Eastern on the vandal youtube twitch facebook and periscope pages but for right now Let's dive into covering the future for this week and add you're talking college basketball What is on your mind in the college basketball futures market? Yeah, I mean, there's there's so many things on my mind, but but let's just talk Well, let's let's get the you know before next week. Let's get the big favorite out of the way Gonzaga Bulldogs were already just discussed that they were first in the preseason poll And you might have objections to their being the national favorite, right? They can't win because they don't play in a good conference Uh, they they play a strong auto conference schedule But the west coast conference hasn't been that good this year st. Mary's hasn't been as good as normal So Gonzaga hasn't played anyone in months and so they're going to buckle under the pressure So I don't like this for a couple reasons firstly, uh, you know, we can evaluate how Gonzaga does compared to the competition That's exactly what my team rankings that take margin of victory and adjust for schedule account for right? You need to Really pummel bad teams in order to keep Um a high rank there and you have to really perform even against those bad teams And that's what Gonzaga does, you know, I'm looking at my numbers today. They're four points ahead of Baylor That's a ginormous margin Um, think back to two years ago Gonzaga was also great. This was the year that Duke heads on Williamson Virginia ended up winning it all but Gonzaga was right there in the conversation with them heading into the tournament It made a lot of sense that they weren't kind of the consensus favorite just because of the strength of those other two teams Uh, but Gonzaga had their best team ever probably up until this team Um, and you might think they just didn't get it done because they didn't make the final four I would argue they just ran into a tough texas tech team that was Peeking at the at the right time. I don't really I don't think in any sense. They folded They just they lost it a team that wasn't quite as good as them But was just playing really well So when you break down this team like they're incredible on offense They're first when I look at points per possession adjusted for opponent And when you break it down into the four factors, what kind of stands out is that they're Like very good in all of them, you know, the four factors are set up to kind of look at the pieces of of how a team does So shooting rebounding getting to the line and turnovers Gonzaga on offense is not worse than 60th in any one of those categories. So very solid Corey Kisper's jump shot is the most beautiful thing in college basketball Great shooter Jalen Suggs is a lottery pick his athleticism jumps off The screen that you're watching it's clear that that he's the most athletic guy out there And, um, you know, Ken Pommel tell you that drew Timmy. They're big is their their best player In terms of the the player of the year type rankings that he does And then Gonzaga is really good on defense. They're 10th when I look at points per possession adjusted for strength of schedule So, you know, it's like it's hard to pick holes at this team, right? Like Timmy is only 235 pounds So I think he is going to get knocked around by bigger centers You know, the big 10 guys like Kofi Coburn and Hunter Dickinson Kisper doesn't have enough arc on his jump shot. I mean, it's hard. It's hard to find a problem with this team So, uh, they should be the number one team, uh, and we'll see we'll see if that's what the public picks I think that's kind of to me the big question because that's obviously very important In figure out how to win your pool And I think the Gonzaga has always been interesting there because People will be hesitant towards Gonzaga because they have they don't have the reputation of other teams But maybe that's different this year with a lack of dukes a lack of Kentucky There's no Zion in this tournament It's maybe the people are more receptive to Gonzaga because I think in the past when you've compared Their tournament win odds in your numbers versus what the public was picking. They were always underrated Right. I think we're gonna get a good test of how open the public is to Gonzaga this year because in theory They should be the team that gets a lot of buzz And I think the lack of other options as far as like big name programs may Make the public more receptive to them than they've been in the past Yeah, absolutely. We'll see and then we'll also see what happens with conference tournaments, right? I I would be zero shocked if Illinois looked really impressive winning the big 10 tournament. How does that change things? Right, you know, they probably don't have the resume to to kind of be the the public favorite, but But who knows so and like how's how's baler gonna do in the big 12th tournament? um I have some concerns about that team, but but we'll see there's a lot of things to play out And we'll talk a lot about what the public thinks when we talk about that on monday for the bracket breakdown show My cover in the future is about another big event this week, but it's not uh college basketball tournaments It's the players championship for pga and it's one of the biggest non-major golf events of the year It's the players at tpc sawgrass I wanted to go back to golf and talk about the guy I like the most at his current odds and that guy is web simpson web is a guy who Constantly is in contention to win golf events even though he has one Major flaw in his game and it's that he's not that long off the tee and among the golfers in the field this weekend He ranks 109th in distance gained according to fantasy national and as we saw last week with bryce d shambo Distance can help a lot But it doesn't matter as much this week than it does at a lot of other events over at data golf You can check out the correlation between how a golfer measures up in different stats going into an event Versus how they perform that week and for a typical pga tour course The correlation between driving accuracy and total strokes gained is 0.5. So fine But a tpc sawgrass that jumps up to 0.7. That's a pretty major distance Or a difference distance goes from 0.8 at a usual course to 0.5 here So accuracy actually matters more than distance at tpc sawgrass and its relative importance compared to most courses Is massive simpson ranks 24th in the field and fairways gained an 18th in good drives gained So he'll measure up well in that department this weekend But I think more importantly it allows him to not lose off the tee Whereas usually relative to the guys he's competing with for wins He would and we know the short game will be awesome for web simpson He ranks third and strokes came around the green He is fifth in bermuda putting that is over the past 100 rounds That gives him a good ceiling and a good floor And he's also shown a mastery of this course in the past year because he won at this event back in 2018 I don't care as much about that 2018 Doesn't matter as much. I want to see what they've done recently But the form is good for web 2 he gained 10.4 strokes t-degree and at the w gc worked a championship That was a couple weeks ago Finished six there in a really good field and that sixth place finish was even though he gained Just 0.1 strokes putting and we know he is a very good putter so With how good web has been historically we can expect better putting numbers here We can expect him to Not lose as much off the tee and we can also expect him to do well with his short game So he's 22 to 1 to win a fangirl sports book. I like that quite a bit And I would like to pair that with him to finish the inside the top 10 at plus 4 10 To get some additional wiggle room there So web simpson my pick for this week at the players championship But ed when the players are wrapping up you're gonna be busy on sunday Watching those conference tournaments checking out the brackets So i'm assuming no golf for you this week, but just a busy sunday overall coming up Yeah, no, probably not a lot of golf this week probably a lot of watching college basketball and evaluating teams and it's a fun time too because They're you know, there's a lot of difference in what different metrics say about some of the top teams And I think you need to watch games to figure out Upside, you know, whether it's a team that can get a lot better or whether it's a team that's maxing out its abilities Yeah, what's it like for you on sunday nights like uh When the bracket comes out like what is that rush like for you trying to jam in all the numbers as quickly as you can Yeah, you know, it's pretty intense, right? I mean, I got to get the the wheel of win probabilities on my site up And usually by this time I've I've had a practice version of that up But I haven't quite done that this year. So you got to get that up and then uh Try to break down the bracket because I want to plan out a bracket wisdom episode that yeah looks at the specifics of the Bracket, so I usually try to do that sunday night as well getting out in email. Um, so it's uh, yeah, you know it's I mean it's It's not like sunday night. It's particularly bad. It's just sunday through thursday or this year sunday through friday That tends to be pretty intense. So But but it'll be good. I love it And you will still find time to join us on covering the spread on monday 6 p.m Eastern for the live show there but ed before then a lot of stuff going on for you at the football analytics show And over at the power rank.com. So what can people find for you this week? Yeah, and sign up for that free email newsletter Because uh, uh, I'll be offering my march madness cheat sheet. It's a really quick list of teams that lets you fill out your bracket Uh in the most easy manner possible It's based on my team rankings that have uh been very predictive over the past 15 tournaments Higher rank team has won over 71 of those games So get that at the power rank.com and i'm really proud of the bracket wisdom series. Uh, it's on the football analytics show It's a daily series with about 10 minutes to get you ready for march madness Uh, you know, if you if you like college basketball, I think this is this is really your thing So I do some episodes edward e-gross has done a bunch of episodes as well So you can get that at the football analytics show anywhere you get podcasts And uh, as you mentioned edward e-gross is there as well Make sure you follow edward on twitter at edward sports check him out on that podcast The football analytics show the bracket wisdom series and also on the odds and eds podcast here on the fan dual podcast network And uh, big thank you to edward for joining us today and taking the time away from his Multiple teaching duties at pepperdine and smu. Make sure you follow ed on twitter as well at the power rank I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin thea ball their video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always do not forget if you are not able to tune in live on monday for our show You can also get it right here on the covering the spread podcast feed after the fact So make sure you are subscribed or tune in 6 p.m. Eastern live on monday on the fan dual youtube page Thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you with all of your bets for the mens college basketball conference tournaments We'll talk to you once again on monday to get you said for march madness This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network