 Mae'r feminista bydd yn galw'r defnyddio galw'r hyfforddiadau, dyfodos'r hyfforddiadiau, a'r strategiadiaeth y meddwl. Tom, mae'r feminista bydd yn cael y bydd yn fanolgoel i'r gwirio yma, yna'r Prif Weinidog yma i chi'n blaen i'r reitio Cymru, ac mae'r Rhun mun i'n fath o'r cyffredinwyr. Cymru iawn yn fath o'r holl erbyn ac yn fath o'u cyffredinwyr, rhoi'n defnyddio'r holl hwnnw, mae'n Beatryd Munniol. Ac mae'r ddweud, mae'n meddwl i'r ffordd ysglaenwyr, ysglaenwyr sydd yn ffaint o'r ddweud yn ffordd ysglaenwyr. A'r ddweud, y ffordd ysglaenwyr wedi'u gwahodd yn ddweud yma yn ei bod yn ffaint o'r ddweud, ac yn ffaint o'r ddweud, o'r ddweud yn ffordd ysglaenwyr. Rwyf am y blwyddyn i chi, cyntaf yw'r ysgolio cyngor o'r ymgyrch ar y cyfrannu chi'n bwrdd yn yma, rydyn ni'n fydd yn ymgyrch ar gyfer yng ngyfraeg, ac rydyn ni'n edrych ar gyfer y gael gen i'r ymgyrch, ac mae'r bethau yma yn iddo i'r ymgyrch ar y cyfrannu yma, ac mae'r bethau wedi'i gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio. ac yn gweithio gweld yn gweithio'r cyfrifeddau a mor hanes hynny, ac rhan o'n gweld yn cael eu cyfrifeddau yn ddod yn eistedd. So, rwyf am yr unrhyw meddwl ydym yn cael ei wneud, ac rwyf am gweithio'n ddod, ac rwyf am gweithio'n ddod yn ei wneud. Rwyf am gweithio eich cyfrifeddau, ystod o'r S&P 500, ac oedd yn gweithio'r cyfrifeddau newydd, rydyn ni'n gweithio'r cyfrifeddau ydyn ni'n gweithio'n gweithio,some solid and and then really quite some significant gains. But as is often the case, that back Beginners Luck runs out. And it did for me. That meant that I gave back everything I had made and I then took a six figure hit on my personal capital so that I decided I needed a sanity check and I needed to take the steps back and see if I could actually make a consistent income from the markets. I thought about looking for a mentor. Did some networking got introduced to the US. Worked with him extensively for 18 months to two years. He upped my technical game, but more importantly upped my mental game. It was a period you were in which I became far more self-aware and understood the absolute necessity for having mental balance. I guess it's the best term for when you are engaging the markets. So after I worked with him, I developed a trade plan, a business plan, I back-tested it, forward-tested it, and I came back to the markets with my own capital in 2008, and obviously that was a pretty tumultuous year. But I managed to trade through that and came out positive. And I've actually delivered positive annual returns since 2008. The reason you can see performance for 2013 is from 2013 to date, sorry, is that during the period, those first five years of trading, I caught the attention of some family and friends who wanted a piece of the action. So I set up a managed account service and I've been trading a managed account service since 2013, and this is the public data with respect to that performance. And like I say, my focus really is on trading excellence in terms of really focusing on my process. I'm not thinking about the financial gains. I'm really thinking about executing my trading strategy with excellence. And so, as I often say, my focus is really on process over outcome. And certainly I'm not emotionally invested in the outcome of individual trades or even a stream of trades. My real focus is on the next 100 trades because I know that if I adhere to my trading plan, manage my risk correctly that over an extended series of outcomes, my edge will demonstrate itself and that's what it has done. As you can see here, most important figures for me on this chart on this page are my average winning month is 7.96% versus an average losing month of 2.4%. So extrapolate that out. You can see that on average I'm making about two or three times what I risk. So apart from my trading activity, which is largely end of day strategy, I also have obviously a market resident at Tick Mill where I provide a daily market outlook along with a trade of the day, a set up that I'm watching. And you can subscribe to that and get and get access to those in their delivery inbox on a daily basis. The other passion project really I'm involved in is FX career swap, which is a trading development business whereby we take retail trading talent, develop them and help them overcome what is the biggest hurdle for familiar retail traders. And that is capitalisation. So once you've been through the development process, we actually, at the end of that, then give you a live, funded account to trade at zero personal risk. And what it means is that you have the capital in place that allows you to adhere to professional risk management strategies about over-leveraging and blowing your account. If anyone is interested in that, I'm happy to pop a link into the chat. We actually have a two week free trial to that trade programme where you get daily access to me. And you can see it's basically an opportunity to look over the shoulder really of a professional trader and see how I manage my business. So that gives you an idea of where I'm coming from. I just can see in the chat full window. I'm not sure what you mean, Tim. Is anyone else having an issue with the visual? I think maybe you might have to log out and log back in, Tim. OK, so let's crack on and start looking at the markets. First of all, as always, we're going to look at some flow and sentiment data. This is from Credit Agricultural, where they give there an effect of positioning update on a weekly basis that I share with my trading team. And basically, the feed for all the what we're looking at in the markets at the moment is we're looking at a move away from the dollar. And this is something I've talked about at length and I think we are just potentially in the very nascent early stages of what could be a protracted move away from the dollar. And so the trade at the moment is probably a little bit crowded. I think he means you can see slides. Yeah, that's just that. That's fine. It doesn't matter. I see the slides. So what we're looking at is a move away from the dollar ultimately, a structural shift. Certainly we've run a bit now in terms of the euro. And like I've mentioned before, I think we can see the potential for correction developing, but my personal perspective at this stage is that we are the euros to be to be bought on dips. HSBC did a survey of their their trading clients and you can see that over the next six to twelve months that certainly this this bearish emphasis on the dollar is starting to take hold. One of the charts I want to share with you today is this is the S&P 500. This this purple line is the S&P 500 from 2008, 2009 and the 2009 low. And what's many have been talking about a 1929 or 1930 crash type perspective. You can see here this is overlaid with our current price action in the S&P 500. And we can certainly see the similarities in terms of the correction. Sorry, the bottoming process that we have seen with the S&P, obviously the scenario is similar to that of 2009 when the Federal Reserve stepped in this time, the Federal Reserve have stepped in on a massive scale. And this is what's causing this melter in terms of equities. Now that the reason why I talk about this is that this has implications for the for the dollar. This is dollar index when we when the markets bottomed in 2009, you can see we went through an initial leg lower in the dollar. And I think that's where we are at the moment in terms of in terms of the in terms of the opportunity with the dollar. I think when this first leg down and corrections higher at this stage are to be sold. Like I've mentioned before, the dollar works in cycles, quite pronounced cycles, 16 year cycles, and it would appear we have we've topped out here in terms of the dollar. One more chart, let's show you where we can see the dollar into a new secular bear move or bear cycle. There are a lot of other drivers behind that, certainly in terms of US trying to trade tensions, the mass flooding of the market in terms of dollars from the Federal Reserve and the potential that that Vice President Biden becomes president in the in the fall. And we see a continued trend lower in terms of the dollar. So let's jump into some charts here. I'm not going to keep you guys and girls too long today. I don't know where you're based, but I'm in New Yorker here and it's 40 degrees. And so I'm looking to get to the beach. So let's let's whip through this stuff. Start with the dollar index. This is the equal weighted dollar index, the Dow Jones dollar index. So it's equal weighted versus the Euro, the sterling, the yen and the Australian dollar. And you can see we're sitting right at support here and we are attempting. This is a third test of this this prior low here. It looks like today we might be looking to put in a short term bottom here. And what I've been looking for is certainly a retest of this descending trend line resistance, but potentially we move into more of a range environment for the summer. We could be back up into this sort of area here. Setting up a potential head and shoulders type scenario. August has a tendency to be a relatively good month for for the dollar from a seasonal perspective. And it tends to be a month where we see consolidation in terms of equity market. So this would fit that pattern. But certainly we get up into this trend line resistance. Any bearish reversal patterns here. And and you know shorts would certainly be interesting. But I anticipate a correction to develop now in the dollar. If we look at the DXY, this is the broader dollar index. And I've about some scenarios here. Again, we're testing just just into these prior loads. It's 9465, the trend line support here that sprung. So I can see it's trading back up into there and then we probably consolidate during the summer and then into that September, October time when we've got the elections, you know, the elections heating up. Then I'm certainly looking for another leg lower in the dollar. So any moves back in to test this, this trend line support broken now act as resistance bearish reversal patterns here will will be selling opportunities. Similar to the idea I just talked about here in terms of the equal weighted index getting up into that potential for a head and shoulders type scenario. We could see the same situation here in the equal weighted index. It's hard to see at this point what would be the catalyst for for such an exaggerated move at this point. I prefer my base case scenario is that we trade this type of pattern here and ultimately are heading lower. And I can see us trade. I mean, we certainly should be testing the trend line support here into into the fall. Swissy. Looking for the swissy to get a test down into this projected descending trend line support and looking for a bounce there. Nothing to do at this stage in the swissy. The euro, obviously, like I said, I'm looking for a potential correction here, which we can see with this, a potential that we put in a tweezer top here and testing the one six one extension of the prior corrective move. And we're also sitting at the monthly R2 midpoint of the projected channel. So this will be a natural place where we could get a correction. So for me, what I what I need to see to be able to deploy short positions here will be a close back below this volume raised average price. Now, obviously Thursday today, Fridays and Mondays tend to be from a from a statistical perspective. They tend to offer the higher highest probability of seeing a seeing a top or a bottom in terms of the euro. So we'll see. We might consolidate here today, get an inside day and then break lower Friday or Monday. But certainly we could get a pull back to test ascending trend line support now coming in at this one fourteen area. And ultimately what I'm looking for is that we test get up higher to test the equality objective, the equality objective versus this swing here. So this is an equidistant swing. So I'm looking for one eighteen thirty nine as the near term objective. Then I see the potential for some consolidation similar to what we saw back down here, but ultimately I'm looking higher in the euro. One twenty would seem to be a reasonable upside objective and potentially up into the one twenty two area. But in the near term, I am looking for a potential for a corrective pullback. But like I said, that corrective pullback, whilst I'll tactically trade it on the short side, I'll certainly be looking then to add at long positions once we get a reversal set up. If we break the ascending trend line support, then the next downside objective for me will be the equality swing here. So last corrective move we saw. So again, that doesn't take us meaningfully lower. Takes us back into these prior highs here. So we could see one thirteen fifty and like I say, what I'm watching for then is once we get down into this area will be bullish reversal patterns. This daily timeframe obviously is the timeframe I trade. So bullish reversal patterns to set long positions, ultimately looking as an interim upside objective is one eighteen and then on to on to one twenty as we head into September, October, November time. But for now, look look for a pullback, I think is is a reasonable probability and and then trade that correction and then look to ring, ring, ring reposition on the long side for this move up into the one eighteen area. Euroyen is also an interesting juncture. We've got a potential double top here. We've got some really nice momentum divergence as well. So again, it's got some work to do here to get back down below the the VWAPS as one twenty three twenty. So seventy or eighty pips if we if we do see a roll over today, more likely than not, what we'll see is consolidation. Then we'll get the roll over, like I say, Friday Monday would be the ideal times for that, and then we have we have an opportunity then to do something on the short side in the Euroyen channel here. So I expect us to get back down into this one twenty two area. And again, from there, we'll see how we trade if we get bullish reversal patterns, then the long positions will warrant it. And I think we're going to be up into the one twenty nine's in terms of the the Euroyen, but like with the Euroy, happy to trade it on the short side from a tactical perspective, but structurally, I'm looking to be long the Euroy trading Eurocad here into the range resistance and the equality swing ABCD here one fifty five twenty seven. Looks like we're going to we are going to roll over here today. Obviously, we wait to see the close New York close for putting positions on, but certainly we're in range resistance. We've achieved the equality objective. We are rolling over in terms of mental studies. So you get a close back through this one fifty four fifty area and short positions will be deployed there. Euroy, we'll see. Looks like a potential double bottom here. I suggest it would prefer to see that down below twenty. But certainly this keeps it's in fitting. You'll get you can see the theme here in terms of euro strength, euro kiwi at the central tendency, the ball bands are flattened out here. So we could certainly see an equality move. If we get a green close here, then you can see an equality. So it's still considered really a correction within the range, but certainly we could we can be trading from this seventy three eighty area up into the one seventy six area. Obviously, higher beta currency there, the euro kiwi euro sterling. Still looking still looking strong here at resistance, but we're starting to fill or start to work our way through the orders here in terms of the euro sterling and we can gain cities back up into the ninety three area in terms of the projected channel sterling itself. Cable looking for a test of the equality objective. I posted this in the chart of the day a few days ago. But if we are going to if the dollar is going to get a bit of strength here in the interim, then we could we could certainly see a pullback in sterling. Let's bring in the trend line. So, you know, as we head into August here, we could see sterling come back down, retest trend line support for then making its move higher to to test into these prior one thirty one area will be a reasonable upside objective for sterling. So keeping an eye on that sterling kiwi. This one, I'm going to show you another chart. This one is sitting at a very interesting position with respect to the monthly time frame. So this is a monthly chart here on this right hand side. We're seeing right at this trend line support. Now, if we look at the daily time frame, we we're putting in a potential double bottom. We've got huge momentum divergence here. Anything we haven't really got going on favour is the aristocastic is negatively orientated. But from a price pattern perspective, if we get a close back through ninety one seventy and that that can set up quite a meaningful correction here in sterling kiwi. Let's just get some targets in place. So we look at a symmetry swing objective. So we can certainly see sterling trade sterling kiwi trade back up in here as the final corrective swing before completing the last leg to the downside. As is often the case when we get these big runs, we tend to retest the cycle low. So what I've been looking for is a move from get a green close today. So we'll need to close through ninety one fifty, ninety one sixty, but we'd have a nice bullish rejection here of this double bottom. And that could set up a move to put us back up into the one ninety five area. So that's one I'm certainly watching into the close this evening. Sterling Aussie similar position here testing third test of this descending trendline support and we've got that triple divergence here. So again, sterling Aussie back through this one seventy eight ninety five say sets up a move to to get us up into this one eighty area as as the next swing or corrective swing in sterling Aussie. Obviously downtrend monthly bewap is bearish Aussie. So we tested into the one two seven one six one extension of what we'll call the this last corrective swing and you can see we've got some decent negative divergence developing here potentially looking at a three candlestick pattern to say a rejection of the we're sitting at the weekly R3 as well. Seventy one sixty. So if we get a close back through seventy ninety and certainly we could trade back down into the vol support here at sixty eight lowest sixty eight twenty, let's say, before consolidating like a say for the summer. So today and tomorrow really are going to be quite pivotal for a bunch of these, a bunch of these charts Aussie Kiwi also sitting at resistance. And again, note we have that negative divergence. So for this Aussie Kiwi, what you want to see is a close back through seventy five eighty to confirm the pattern and then you target vol support back down to seventy three twenty nine Aussie Cad. First, this is a chart this morning. We're seeing the follow through. We've got again a triple divergence that these three pushes into a high and we're correcting lower now. So if we get a close app or lower than we're currently trading, which will turn the daily VWAP bearish, I certainly see us trading down into ninety three twenty Kiwi similar story to the others. Having quite retested this last year's high, which would have been the ideal objective, but certainly we've got momentum divergence here on this last high. So if we get a close back through sixty six fifteen, then the Kiwi could be my short here. Get us back down to sixty four fifty before we reach another decision point where I'm going to hold the trend line then trade back through that sixty eight high, or we break the trend line support and then we would then we'd be looking at some quality objectives. So the last meaningful correction, sorry, which actually would put us into this area. So this is going to be a pivotal test for the Kiwi really. If we do close red today, look for price to retest this sixty four twenty area, but it's reversal patterns there. We've got a nice risk reward in terms of longs to target this sixty seven sixty high Kiwi cad. Again, we've been tracking this pattern. I kept you kept you informed of this and it looks like now we're going to see the anticipated correction. We've got again that nice negative divergence, nicely structured pattern and we're getting the red close tonight in terms of the the VWAP. So you can see we've got a bunch of these pairs that are all really testing some pivotal places at the moment. The only trade I've actually got on at the moment is caveat and that I'm long and I'm trading up my stops. I've locked in sixty fifths profit on this one now. I'm looking ideally for it to test this descending trend line resistance eighty sixty one that we're we're holding at the moment the equality objective and so so just tiny up the stops looking in some profit on that one. And just finally, let's see where we are with the S&P. I'm looking for a corrective pullback in terms of the S&P, but certainly the pattern looks quite clear now that we will test and probably breach this price at thirty three ninety seven as we've already seen that the NASDAQ do that. NASDAQ looks like it's also running out of steam here. We've got negative divergence. So like I posted this on the blog the other day, I think we can certainly see a pullback test this ten thirty five area. And last but not least, let's see where gold is at gold. Looking for gold to test up into this nineteen hundred area this projected sending trend line resistance and then see another pullback in gold probably to retest this eighteen twenty this prior prior highs as support. OK, so that's that's what I'm basically looking at in terms of opportunities and and watching the close tonight really to see if some of those some of those patterns confirm, but certainly I think we're at a pivotal juncture here for a bunch of pairs, certainly the euros and some of these commodity currencies as well look to be in some interesting places. But like always, I'm waiting for the close tonight to get confirmation. OK, traders, are there any questions? You can either raise your hand and I can unmute your mic or you can post a question in the chat. If you if you don't have a question, if you type an N in the chat, that would be that would be helpful, Tim. These are proprietary indicators, Tim. You can you can drop me a message through LinkedIn and I can let you know how you can get hold of them there. But the majority of it is to do with volume weighted average price, Tim. OK, just give you another 30 seconds here. Any questions? OK, farang, farang, can you hear me? You've got a microphone, farang, to hear. Do you have a microphone? Hi to here. I can see you've got questions, but I can't hear you. And I can't see you as a human being. Oh, no. It's a danger, Tim. Alla. I can't hear you. I'm going to ask that. Why wouldn't you? I'm going to ask that. So, I'm going to ask that. She was. OK, what's going on there? OK, if there aren't any other questions, guys, I'm going to wrap this one up here. Like I say, keep an eye on some of these the first time I'm here. I just want to say thank you for understanding the logical run through. Thank you, Mark Huw. Appreciate the comments. Infinix, Mark. I'm not sure what what that question refers to Infinix. So, again, when can I? I'll one second, guys, one second. I mean, one second. I'm just going to post a link for you with me. I'm going to post a link in the chat now for any of you who are interested in the indicators. Yes, Mr Ben, I am looking for a correction in the in the DXY. I'll just go back to the chart for you if you missed it. So I'm looking for this type of scenario to develop in the DXY. But again, if we take out these lows, then all bets are off and this could become a quite aggressive move lower. They're not there. They're volume weighted average price bands to here. They're not they're not Bollinger bands function slightly differently. OK, any other questions? With respect to OK Daniel. Hi, Daniel. Hello. You got a microphone, Daniel. OK, can you hear me right? I can, yeah. Yeah, OK, so I noticed on your on your graphs, well, first things first, I joined late into this conversation. So maybe the question I'm trying to ask you, maybe I've already answered it, but I'm going to ask anyway, so I was curious what kind of indicators are you using? I'm using volume weighted average price. Oh, OK. As opposed to the link that it explains all about the indicators, the links. OK, thank you. Thank you, sir. No problem at all. Thanks for the questions, Daniel. Any other questions? I'm going to wrap this one up here and I'll catch you all sometime next week. Thanks very much.