 A lot of times in daily fantasy baseball, my top picture for both cash games and tournaments will be the same because for me at least the goal in both formats is the same. I want to maximize total points of that position and a lot of times the best ceiling will also be the same guy with the best median outcome because what you get to both places is strikeouts and you're generally going to be focusing on the same guys there. For tonight's slate though I think there is a different top picture for cash games versus for tournaments will break through what I think in each format who I think should be there why these differences exist and more for today's slate welcome on into the solo shop that's right here on the podcast network in number fire dot com my name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com here to break down Monday nights nine game the main slate what locks up for 705 for tonight before we start though there is one there's a chance of rain in Washington that's for the nationals and the Phillies the rain odds right now are not super high but they are high enough where I think you should check back on that later on to make sure that things are still good to go so Washington the one rain spot to keep an eye on for today we'll also be back here once again 4pm eastern on the fandal YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter pages make sure you swing by there with your questions to get set for tonight slave talk about that pitching dilemma for today talk about some values hitters one offs process whatever is on your mind swing by 4pm today we'll get all those questions answered for you right here on the fandal YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter pages also make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast because we've got MLB PGA NASCAR USC all this week so a lot of good stuff coming down the pipeline you're on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed a football fans the 2021 NFL season is right around the corner and fandal is getting fans the opportunity to get in on the action by playing fantasy football right now fandal has daily best ball contest that you can compete in like to do is head over to fandal dot com and draft your team pick a league with your desired number of teams draft your squad and compete for prizes you can also create your own contest if you want to make your home league a best ball league this year you can do that head on over to fandal today and start drafting eligibility restrictions apply go to fandal dot com or download the fandal app for more details pitching preview for this Monday main slate Corbin burns is the highest salary pitcher on fandal checking in at $11,500 we've got Robbie Ray at 10 nine followed by Zach Wheeler at 10 six Julio Arias is next up on this slate checking in at 97 I'm on the wrong spot here $9,700 guess right cool good to go Arias 97 here my mark is $9,100 and the least Garcia Corey Kluber does I agree and Chris flexing are the others at $8,000 or higher now. If you know the matches may be able to identify who we like for cash games versus who we like for tournaments and it's not just the match it's also the pitcher profile for cash games you want a guy who has a strikeout juice but also brings a well balanced profile that is the exact who describes Zach Wheeler Zach Wheeler the guy for cash games the guy for tournaments though is a bit more volatile let's up a couple more hard hit balls lives dangerously for sure, but is that home and brings a lot of strikeout juice. That guy is Robbie Ray and Robbie Ray is my top guy for tournaments for tonight let's start with Ray then we'll go to Wheeler and discuss the reason why I'm making the distinction between cash games and tournaments for tonight. Ray is not low salary to 10 nine but I think he's still worth it. He's facing the Orioles here and they've got some good numbers against lefties they've a 109 WRC plus so they're not a sieve matchup. They're also not a low strikeout team and you know that's a that means that they're not like a match we need to avoid I would say and they also don't walk, which means I can feel decently safe and going with Ray here. Most that's due to Ray himself because he started to go back to his slider a lot recently over his past six stars Ray has a 32% strikeout rates and that's sliders also cut down the hard hit rates. The expected slugging percentage against that slider is 279 according to baseball savants so it helps both the strikeout rate and the bad at ball data when Robbie Ray leans more on a slider and he's been doing that over his past six stars. So that's why I think that Robbie Ray is a top guy for tournaments. I'm not saying the ringers not the dingers not a risk anymore that's definitely not the case and that's why it's tougher for me to put him over wheeler for cash games because wheeler is so good in that department but let's say if they move a little bit in the right direction. If Robbie Ray started to let up a little bit less hard contact with this slider, he could be unstoppable. He had 14 strikeouts against the White Sox last week a very good team against lefties he had 11 against the Tiger so I don't think the Orioles be much of an issue here. I really do like him at 10 nine and I'm fully willing to pay that salary. That's why Robbie Ray to me as the top guy for tournaments for tonight. The reason I can't be as enthusiastic for cash games is the sample on him suppressing our contact is very small six starts. That's not big enough for me to say Robbie Ray has cured his big issues which can lead to calamity which we don't want for cash games. That's why I think that Zach Wheeler is the top guy for cash game. Let's talk about him now he's facing the Nationals. That's why the floor is so high because it's an amazing matchup for a pitcher right now. The Nationals have an 86 WRC plus against righties with a 132 ISO. They have a 28% fly ball rates. They're not a threat to really puzzle a pitcher right now really great matchup for a pitcher to have and Wheeler is just insanely good as a real world pitcher. He worked with 13 start sample on him since he started getting more movement on his curveball. He has a 3.27 skill interactive ERA in that time. He has a tremendous walk rate is bad at ball data is otherworldly. He is the exact kind of pitcher you want on your baseball franchise in 2021 when guys are hitting the ball so hard. The only reason he's not above Ray for tournaments is strikeouts because Wheeler strikeout rate in this time is 26% raise is 32%. So raise odds of dropping a 60 burger to me at least are higher than Wheeler's. Wheeler though I would say is better odds of getting a 40 points in this matchup. Wheeler can get 60 so I think that I will be in on him for tournaments. He had 70 a couple of starts ago but I think I'm going to rank Ray higher for tournaments. Wheeler is a guy for cash games. Ray for tournaments the distinction is I feel safer in Wheeler's matchup and I feel safer in his bad at ball data. But I want to go to Ray in tournaments because I like the strikeout upside more. So I think it is a slate where we do have a pretty clear distinction between the top pitcher for cash games. Versus the top pitcher for tournaments. Gimme Wheeler in cash. Ray in tournaments. But also Wheeler in tournaments as a secondary option behind Robbie Ray. Among the value plays I'm going to go back to at least Garcia even with his pitch count concerns still being there. He went 90 in his most recent start which is the first time he has hit 90 since June. It seems unlikely that Garcia goes longer than that. Seems like this is a concerted thing where they want to keep him fresh I would assume for October. But Garcia keeps scoring well despite the low pitch count because he is getting so many strikeouts. He has scored 50 plus fan dual points in three of his past seven starts. That does include last week where he went those 90 pitches and it's because he's gotten a lot of strikeouts. He started throwing his cutter quite a bit eight starts ago. In that time he has a 32 percent strikeout rate with a 6 percent walk rate. That means he's getting strikeouts and being efficient with his pitches. And that's how you score points without a big pitch count at your disposal. He's facing the Mariners on the road tonight. They are a high strikeout team with a 25 percent strikeout rate versus righties. That is the highest mark on the slate. They will draw some walks. So it might not be the best match for pitch efficiency. But Garcia faced them a month ago. Although he let up five run runs he also had nine strikeouts. So I'm going to give him a shake here at $8600. See what happens. I do prefer both Ray and Wheeler. Despite the salary discrepancy I think that both those guys with their pitch counts have better odds of being the highest scoring pitcher on this slate. So that's why I still favor them. But Garcia given how good he has been given how efficient he has been given the matchup I think he is still worth consideration. So for me again Robbie Ray for tournaments. Zach Wheeler for cash games primarily but also for tournaments and then Garcia exclusively for tournaments but ranking him below both Robbie Ray and Zach Wheeler. We'll talk about Josiah Gray in things to watch as well. Before that though let's get to the stacking section for today. We'll be keeping Robbie Ray's salary of 10 9 in mind throughout this trying to find some guys who may fit with that salary allocation. One team that could do so is the Blue Jays and they have not been as great offensively recently which could be due to the George Springer injury. But Springer said he might be back tonight. He might be back out there. Even if he's not they still got some dudes in this lineup and I still believe in this offense and I want to stack them tonight against Chris Ellis. This will be the second career star for Ellis. He spent most of the year in triple A with the Rays and struggled a decent amount there. His ERA was 6.32. He had a 23% strikeout rate within 11% walk rate. Wasn't a big ground ball guy either. And again that's in triple A versus the majors. Ellis might be someone who walks a few too many guys which is not something we adore for stacking because it limits the number of balls in play. But if that's the biggest issue we've got I'm not going to worry too much because it can still lead to points. It can lead to multi run innings. You get guys on base. It can lead to good things. It gets you access to middle relievers. It's definitely a tough task for him facing the Jays for tonight. They have a 112 WRC plus against righty. They're the 192 ISO. So I'm going to stack them here. The question would be if Springer does come back who does he squeeze out? Because the value options here are Alejandro Kirk and Corey Dickerson. Kirk may not play because he's a catcher. Dickerson may get squeezed because Springer is an outfielder. So those guys could get the bump. Although I'd expect it to be more likely to be Randall Gritchick over Dickerson given the handedness of Ellis. One guy who is going to work for Ray though and should be in there. Lourdes Gouriel. It seems like we've been seeing some chilling a bit on him. Recently the salaries come back down to 3,000. But Gouriel has a 205 ISO versus righty since the All-Star break. He has a 37% fly ball which is not too bad. So although we've seen some pedaling back on him. I think we should be in still on Lourdes Gouriel. It's $3,000. Really good core play in your Ray lineup. So check out Kirk, check out Dickerson, check out Gouriel. But I think that we can make this work with Ray assuming you're okay with getting two of those guys and then spending up for two studs in the other spots. As far as the second spot, it's another team that's been in a slump recently. That's the Padres. Things have not been going great. Their playoff hopes are slipping away fast. But they haven't had a lot of great matchups on offense. And I do like theirs for tonight. So I think we should give them a shot. Now it's weird to say I like their matchup because they're facing Tyler Gilbert who threw just through a no-hitter against this team this very same month. So the no-hitter, it still stands for Gilbert. It is definitely a concern, but the underlying numbers for Gilbert are still lagging. Rukti3 starts on him in the majors, including that no-hitter. He has a 5.56 skill interactive VRA, which is the highest mark on this slate. His 15% strikeout rate is the lowest. He has a 10% walk rate. Fly ball rate is 43%. So when you look at those numbers, it seems as though Gilbert has been pretty lucky to have a 2.84 ERA. He's faced the Rockies and the Pirates since that no-hitter. Neither team is super-threatening. The Rockies were a course and they did score four runs. So that's a tougher spot for sure. But the Pirates who have no power at all scored two runs against Gilbert in Pittsburgh. Now the Padres get him after having seen him go away full nine innings against them. They didn't do anything there, obviously. But I wouldn't be shocked if they were to turn the tides here. So I'm going to stack the Padres today and see what happens. We should look at both Tommy Pham and Will Myers in their versus the Lefty. Bet that Trent Grisham probably had to the bench here. And both Pham and Myers have been good enough against Lefty to be viable. They're $2,800. I think that they would be, if they play, to the better values on the slate for tonight. And it's not a lock because Tatees in the outfield does complicate things. But hopefully Pham and Myers are both in there because we can get to Machado, get to Tatees, get to some of the other guys and make this stack work pretty easily even while spending up for Robbie Ray for tonight. The third stack is one I am hoping and guessing will fly a bit more under the radar. And it should because the implied total is just 4.26. So I'm not expecting this team to be very popular. That's the right socks against at least Patino. And I actually think they're a good tournament stack for tonight. Patino is going to be a very good pitcher in the majors. His triple A numbers are tremendous. He has done plenty in his age 21 season. The majors to make you believe this dude's legit. But some of the underlying numbers for right now lend themselves to stacking. Patino has been back in the big leagues for six starts now. And that's when he has been getting fully stretched out, which means he's a different pitcher now than he was earlier on this year. He's had some tough peripherals in that time. He has a 22% strikeout rate with a 12% walk rate. He's letting up a 40% of hard hit rates and a lot of fly balls. 53% fly ball rate. So lowish strikeout rates, high walk rates, high hard hit rates, high fly ball rates. It hasn't led to a lot of trouble yet for Patino. He has a 4.31 ERA in this time. And he hasn't allowed more than four earned runs in any game. But one of the games where he let up for and runs was to the same Boston offense back on August 10th, about three weeks ago. They hit a couple of dingers there. And I think they might be able to break through tonight to get a little bit better. I think they might be able to break through tonight and put up a big total. We don't usually get the Red Sox at reduced popularity because they tend to have very high implied totals. They are a very public team, but I think we will get them at reduced popularity here. And I'm going to stack them just for tournaments and see what happens. With Kike Hernandez out of the lineup, we've got a couple potential value options here. Those guys are Jaren Duran and Travis Shaw. Duran's probably going to hit either leadoff or eighth, one of the two. They're going to hit either leadoff or eighth, depending on where Duran is, but both those guys have done enough to be worth considering. Shaw has a 182 ISO, with a 45% fly ball rates. Duran has a 151 ISO. You can type some bags too. Shaw's $2,600. Duran is $2,500. And if you use those two guys, that should allow you to get Ray plus two of the stud hitters in this lineup. Specifically Kyle Schwerber, $3,400. That's way too low for a guy that good. Get Shaw if you can. Also Alex Vardugo a bit under salary at $3,100. So see which value options pop up on the Red Sox, plug in those guys, get Robbie Ray and get Kyle Schwerber. And then I'm assuming you can probably get to Raphael Bevers too, which I'd like to do on this slate. So the Red Sox to me a stack I am expecting to go a bit overlooked, but one I do like for tonight. Let's move now to things to watch. I did not get to Josiah Gray in the pitching section to get strikeouts, the Phillies offense with Reese Hoskins being out, not the most threatening thing in the world. Just wanted to hear a bit about motivation when we're talking about Gray versus Garcia because Houston with Garcia would likely still like to win. Washington probably would rather lose. So if someone's going to go long today, I think that Garcia is more likely than Gray. Gray is a consideration. I just wouldn't put him as high on my list as Garcia. Similar thing to Corbin Birds. I don't think he's going to win tonight, but a really tough matchup for him on the road. So he's going to rank below Ray and Wheeler. So Gray and Burns, the two guys weren't at least considering if I didn't touch on the top three. But to me, I feel really good about Ray one, Wheeler two for tournaments and then Garcia being the top value play. The Yankees are facing a bullpen game today for the Angels. The bullpen is not a shutdown unit. They have a 4.10 ERA for their current active roster. We'll see middle relievers getting stretched long, which is great for offense. I think the Yankees are a very good stack as a result of that. I specifically love Giancarlo Stanton. The dude is just like laser locked in right now with hitting all these tanks. So Stanton to me $3,800 more than fair. And I'll happily pay that as a one off or part of a Yankee stack. Finally, I talked about the Red Sox before and I don't like stacking them, but I also don't mind stacking the rays on the other side here. They're facing a Pavetta. Pavetta has had some rougher games against good teams this year and the rays are that they have a 115 WRC plus against righties. That's the second best mark on the slate. Pavetta is pretty even splits against righties and lefties, which is a little bit annoying. I would say actually, because I'd rather have like a rock solid outlook for the righties or the lefties as opposed to even for both sides. But either way means you can pick your favorite rays. Feel fine stacking that one. I would say for stacks and I wouldn't expect either team to be all that popular. Let's finish up here with the Dinger calls for today. I talked about Kyle Schwarber a lot last week. Gonna go back once again today. Again, Petina letting up a lot of fly balls, not getting a ton of strikeouts. Schwarber is, as you know, quite good at baseball. So it's boring. It's a repeat of last week, but like it's repeat for a reason. Kyle Schwarber going deeper today for the boring home run call for the righties since the all-star break with the 205 ISO. Good matchup for today. So the home run calls for today, Kyle Schwarber and Lordeus Gurriel Dinger Tuesday coming up once again tomorrow. That is all that we have here for today on the solo shop. But again, don't forget to subscribe to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed on Apple podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google podcasts, radio.com, wherever you find your podcasts, you can find us. If you have any questions for me, leave us a rating and review as well. NFL season just around the corner, the first NFL preview podcast one week from Thursday. I am ready. If you have any questions for me, you can find me on Twitter. I'm at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you tonight.