 Rwy'n credu'r cyfnodd. Rwy'n darparu'r gweithio y sefydliadau a rydyn ni sy'n gael 10 minu peir. Rydyn ni'n angen i'r wneud y hoffio ar weld 10, 12 o'r hoffio. Mae'r gweithio erioed wedi'i gwneud o'r pari David. Mae'n cael ei gweithio. Yn cyfnodd du o'r ffordd, oes yr oedd y censyfodol yn bwyd, sy'n gwybod i'r tyfnol ar y dyfodol ar ychydigion sy'n gallu bod yn cyfathio'r ffodol. Rwy'n credu David fydd yn y ddechrau'n gwybod. Rwy'n credu'n gwybod i'n gwybod i'r gyfer 90s, sy'n gyfer amser ymryd ar yr IFF ac mae'n yma'r ddweud o gwbl sy'n perthynasol, beth mae'n gwybod i'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ffanaeth ymlaen diweddorol o'r Ffanaeth Gwyrddon o'r ddweud o'r ddweud. Ac rwy'n gobeithio i chi'n dda i ddedig i gyfraith o syniad yw'n ddiwrnod o'r holl, sen i'r woch a'r saffio sydd yng Nghymru. Dwi'n gallu sefydleth, mae'n sefydlu ar gyfer o'r trofodaeth, ond mor bod yn ôl yn trefodaeth, ac sy'n cael eich ailau, David. Dwi'n cael ei wneud eftan arall y byd heb allan rhaid, ac mae'n mynd i'n dod o'w'r trofodaeth. Ac mae nowa iawn i'n duellwch clentaf. Mae rhaid i'n siŵr? Felly mae ydych chi'n credu, a'r ystod y peth yn ymgyrch yn ei ddweud, ond mae'n ymddwn i'r rhan o'r dychwyn iawn. Felly oedd, rydych chi i'r lleidio'r anghwynt yn ei ddweud o'r ffair o'r cyfrifatigau cyfnodol i ddweud yn ymgyrch i'r ddeunydd, yn ymgyrch yn gweld nhw, i'r cyfrifatigau cyfnodol. Cyfrifatigau cyfnodol o'r ddweud ymweld yn ymgyrch yn ei ddweud. Mae'r myfyrdd i'w golygu hyn sydd o myfyrdd yn gwneud o'r problech. Mae'r byw yn y rhagfau cyhoedd y ffrifysgaf, beth mae'n digwydd cyfeilio'n am hmmmwylo, mae wedi wneud a fwyfyrdd arniol, ac mae'r dyfyn efo'r cyfrinsgaf, mae efo'r ffordd oes a'r gwaith o bach o ffotol. Mae'r ffyrdd â'r tîm yn ddod ddrofodaethol, gyda'r wath o beth gennym. Mae'n wneud cofio'r rhai osch cilyniad蒂au ac y gallwch, yn y bwysig gyrhau yn y cyllidegau yn y cywylliannol. Roeddwn i yn ymdweud, mae'r bod yn ffygofo. Ond, mae no本 maes yn ymdweud yn yr angen, ac maes gen i fod yn y rhain fydd iawn neu arETH a gwn yn y'n meddwl. Mae gilydd yr ysgu bwysig â bwysig mae'r gynhygrwysu personal ac yr ysgu seatber. O'r ysgu'r ysgu'r ysgu'r yr ysgu'r cyfoedd yn oed yn ddiwedd yn byw y mae'r gwaith bwysig o ran cynyddi â'r ysgu'r ysgu'r cychwyn? Felly, mae'n ddigon i'r cyfnod, ac ydy'n gweithio bod y byddai niech, rydw i ddweud y byddai busnes yn ei ddweud, oherwydd y byddai gyrfa'r cyfnod erbyn yn y byddai gyrfa'r cyfnod yma, ac mae'r cyfnod y byddai busnes yn ei ddweud yn y casadrofiad. Mae'n ddweud hynny o'r cyfnod yn y stêl, ac mae'n rhan o'ch ddweud y byddai'n ei ddweud y byddai'n ei ddweud ar gyfer yr awddiad y byddai'r cyffredinedd, o'n gweithio'r clywed o'r llwyffydd o'r llwyffydd, ond, y ffrindiau yn y Cynllun ymgyrch yn ymgyrch yn ymgyrch yn y problemau yma o'r llwyffydd ymgyrch. Felly, mae'n gweithio'r cyfnodd o'r lleidio'r gweithio'r agenda, y dyfodol y pwyllgor ymgyrch yn ymgyrch yn ymgyrch yn ymgyrch yn ymgyrch yn ymgyrch yn ymgyrch. A gwaith yma yw'r ymgrifennid o'r ddiweddau newydd y Prif Weinidog, a mae'n gwybod i'r trezio, yn clare Lombardelli, fewn i'r cyflwyneu cyflwyneu'n gwybod, mae'n i'n golygu o'r 50billion o gwybod i'r prif ymgeisio, mae hynny'n ni i dda i'r cyflwyneu cyflwyneu cyflwyneu cyflwyneu cyflwyneu, a at y time o'r wahanol cyflwyneu a ff Gallu cyflwyneu, mae'n gwybod i'n gwybod i'n gwybod i'r cyflwyneu cyflwyneu cyflwyneu cyflwyneu, Yn y gallwn ymwyaf, ond mae'n meddwl o'r cwmaint yn cyffredinol, a'r ddweud deall ffasol o'r amser? Ond ar y cwmaint ar gyfer y gynhyrchu, mae'n amser yn gweithio am y dryndiol, a'n ddweud yn gweithio'r ffasol? Yn y gweithio, ond mae'r rydw i'r gweithiau sydd wedi'u cyfrifiadau newidol, mae'n rhaid i'r gweithiau, a'i gweithio i'r gweithiau, package that is the first week, the Chancellor announces, with great shock that he's inspected the book and has been very shocked to discover that they are in a far worse position than he expected. And sadly, because of the mess left by his predecessors he's not quite going to be able to do everything that he promised because he hadn't realized how bad things were. Dwi'n g glaub that when it's the same party is tougher, it's tricky. i'r gwirion y gallwn cyfnodol yn cael ei ddweud o'r ffaswn. Felly, ddim yn ymateb o'r cumfysgfyrdd yn Llyfrgell Lomberdell, mae'n gweithio'r ffordd wedi'u gwirion. Mae'n gweithio, mae'n gweithio, mae'n gweithio'r ffordd ar ac yn gweld yn fawr gwirion i gweithio'r ffordd yn gwirion i'r ffordd. Mae'r cerdd o'r holl yn ymloed ymlaen yn ddweud yn ymloed. Bydd ychydig yn erbyn ymlaen i'r ffordd yma, ac yn adion y friedŵr, nid ti'n gweld i'r geisig o'i blaen. Yn mynd bod yn gallu'n hynny'n ddweud y mae'r wneud yn gweldio'r ydydd Cymru. Mae'n mynd i'r iawn hefyd, mae sy'n gweld i'r wych â'r badaf. Mae'n gweld i'r wych â'r ff Characteradau. Mae'n cwm ni'n gweld i'r hynny, ond ar gyfer, mae'n badaf yn gorffwyr yng nghaerfan. A wnaeth eich cyfwyr fan y remembersfyrdd. But now, what could be worse, and what could justify not spending using that headroom now. So I think there will be, so I can see some of that fiscal headroom being used, but nothing like 50 billion. And do you see, we've talked quite a bit about institutions this morning particular economic institutions. And the Bank of England is now going to go through, it has to go through the first time since independence. dyda chi'n deall bod yn ystyried'ch y gwaith wedi ei wneud ddod ar gyfer y prestigiaeth yma a'n ddod yn ddiddordeb i'r gwerthbeth neu ddod yn ystod, yma yw'n nod i'ch meddwl i'ch roi pennyddio'r gweithio. Fffa wneud o'n gweithio, ond mae'n gweithio'r gweithio'n gweithio. Maen nhw arall rhagdodd yma, ac iddo i ni'n gweithio'n cyff Fascans? reisai chi yn cael gychwyn, cysylltu i ni'n meddiwch gweithio gael ar y heddiw i gweithio i ffyrddol, a yw'r gweithio'r gweithio am yma un o'r gweneisio'r gweithydd, a'r gwneud o'r gwneud o bryd yn gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gwaith yn mynd i ddysgu'r fifreulau yn cael ei gaelio'r gweithio'r gwneud hynny. Mi'n ei bod yn cwylaf o'i gyllideb yn sut cleifasio llydd. Mae'n croes yng Nghymru yn y gallu gwelwch ar y gennym. Mae'r bwysig wedi dweud bod yw'r tynnu arall y model. Mae'r cyfrifiadau gwahanol teulu ar y cyfrifiadau yng Nghymru o'r ffordd. A wnaeth i chi'r cyfrifiadau gwahanol gwahanol, felly mae'r cyfrifiadau ffordd i'r cyfrifiadau gwahanol yn ffysgol. A mae'r cyfrifiadau yng nghymru wedi deall y byddai o dan ymherwydd yma, ond ei ddweud o wneud yn cael ei fod yn rhan fawr o'r ysgrifennu, a'r cyfrifiadau o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o ddweud o'r argyffredigol. ond we've ended up with a reasonable amount of co-ordination of monetary and fiscal policy. The autumn is going to be a challenge on that. One of the other messages that you might well imagine a new Chancellor receiving is, if you want to blow all this money on tax cuts now, you may well find interest rates are going to rise faster than you otherwise would have wished. I think there'll be a bit of jostling between the fiscal policy lever and the monetary policy lever and an incoming Chancellor might be tempted. If he were then having to lower expectations and doesn't deliver as big a tax cut as he might have wished, one of his arguments might be otherwise I would have seen interest rates rising more, which itself would have had a big impact on the household finance. To talk about the longer term, if we look at the next decade as we have been this morning, the Johnson government, Johnson as Prime Minister, high investment, high public investment, environment net zero central to that, levelling up were the key planks of the sort of longer term economic policy. Clearly it depends if Rishi wins, I don't see that necessarily changing so much, but with other candidates it might. How do you see both what you think will happen to the party, but also how it differs between the different wings of the party? The list in the Mays lecture, innovation, skills and investment as the three priorities is not a bad list. I really don't know how it's all going to play out, but I think Liz Truss and many other candidates wouldn't have that dissimilar list. I think political realities, democratic politics will drive the Conservative Party to engage with the kind of issues we've been talking about today. I'd offer two reasons. First of all, without sounding too cynical about it, one of the ways in which the Conservative coalition is assembled is by people in the middle identifying with the interests and views of people who are affluent, a shared interest in holding down taxes, a shared belief in property ownership, you're on a route to own your own home or you already own it. And if instead the people in the middle look as if their experience of the world is closer to that of the classic, sad, sadly disadvantaged precariat at the bottom, and it looks as if the middle ground voter, the median income middle of the range voter, no longer thinks he or she is going to end up as a homeowner unless they've already got it, no longer believes that their wages are going to rise, of themselves really feeling the pressure from increases in the cost of living. Suddenly the Conservative coalition doesn't look very robust. Those figures earlier for comparing incomes and increases in incomes at different points of the income range in the UK tell you that it's going to be harder to hold the Conservative coalition together. So you want to do things for middle income voters and then in turn the next point about politics is some of those centre ground middle income voters in marginal seats, the Watford's of this country, themselves care about how the lowest income people are treated. And one of the endless arguments in the Conservative, and again I think these are the kind of way people think of these, even if you don't believe that the lowest income voters in tough inner city areas are going to vote Tory, maybe middle income wavering Lib Dem voters in more prosperous parts of the country for whom whether or not they vote Tory is affected by how you treat and what policies you have to operate people at the bottom of the heap. So from my experience of these type of conversations in Conservative circles, that's how you get attention to these types of issues. And how about the, I mean, because one of the, being a home owning democracy is so central to the Conservative party, it's obviously as with house prices having gone up so much, particularly in London and the South East, so that it's very difficult unless you have inherited wealth to get into the property market and we're seeing huge changes across the generations in terms of home ownership. Does that begin to split apart? I mean, is the intergenerational question, does that split apart the Conservative coalition or the fact that most of the Conservatives own a property and think well actually we can, something we don't have a high inheritance taxes and keep property taxes though, we can give it to our kids? Which wins out. I know, I know, and you'll be able to, the number of conservative discussions of this which boiled down to the debate whether this is a generational effect or a life-cycle effect and eventually people will end up owning their homes. I mean, I think you put your finger on it and it's something we're both very interested in. I think the most, the most, you could argue the most important chart in the report today that for this is the extraordinary rise in assets from three times income to eight times income over the last 30 or 40 years. And going back to the discussion we had in the panel earlier on inequality, I mean one very simplified way of thinking about this is imagine there is no change in the distribution of income and of course although there was a rise in inequality in the 1980s, not much since. And imagine there's no change in the distribution of wealth, though by and large wealth is less unequally distributed than income, the uniform coefficient for wealth is about inequality is about twice for income. So imagine you don't have any changes showing up in the conventional metrics, but then the value of asset rises from three times income to eight times income. That makes a society feel much more unequal because the more unequal thing has become much more significant and it means that acquiring an asset out of earnings and of course housing is the most important one, acquiring an asset out of earnings has become a lot harder. It means that inheritance matters a lot more and we shouldn't forget the other big assets as big as housing is pensions. And although there is you say a scenario when people can look forward to inheriting their house, so the average age of inheritance now is 61 so it's quite a long way. On pensions the boomers defined benefit pension schemes are not heritable assets and although there is a modest attempt to bring in some inheritance for some DC pensions, the other main form of wealth is not heritable and what are the prospects even for middle income, middle class earners now building up a company pension, anything like as valuable as a classic DB pension, that form of asset wealth is not going to be enjoyed in any kind of life cycle effect because it's being extinguished on death. So I think the challenge of how you spread a property owning democracy in the kind of environment we describe in the interim report is a real one and again there are concerns and to be fair to him and it's a pity he can't do it himself. To be fair to him Michael Gove is one of the people who completely gets this and is very engaged with what you can do to spread home ownership and I personally think that on pensions and I don't know if he's a dare is still with us but the auto-enrolled pension model, the bad news is there's not much money in those auto-enrolled pension pots. The good news is the framework has reached out to millions of people so it is more widely accessible than many of us dare hope. Just imagine a bold set of conservative policies that say we're going to use the framework of the auto-enrolled pension to really boost the pension savings of large numbers of middle earners and these are the radical things we're doing on everything from planning permission through to mortgage regulation to get more people owning their own home. So as we've been discussing throughout the conference this morning, this is not impossible. These are things that could be done if they were organized intelligence systematically applied to the problem. Do you think the party at the moment, this is the last question for me so I'm just going to open it up to the floor in a second, do you think the party is particularly after the Chechenman Amishon by-election we just mentioned planning something that can be done but hasn't been done Are we any closer to the world when the Conservative party starts thinking we appeared to be at the start of this parliament but we've moved in what I would say is the wrong direction since and that was partly a voter effect. I would say that going back to what's politically possible. In the old days an 80 seat majority looked like a government that could do incredibly bold and difficult things and what we have found is an 80 seat majority nowadays is not what it used to be. It looks as if the party discipline, I think it applies across all parties and it's part of doing social media and building up the identities of individual entities it looks like party discipline is weaker, rebellions are stronger and I think on radical planning reform that makes things harder and the other angle incidentally we have the trade discussion in our previous session a lot of Tory muttering that one of the angles that the Lib Dems are using in the seat they win especially most recently in Devon is the Australian trade agreement and agriculture and trade deals part of the American fast track trade negotiation process or indeed handing trade over to the EU means that you don't have directly to confront voters about the specific decisions you've taken in trade deals I think there's a view in Tory circles that they're not going to get another trade deal like Australia's and with a pretty open move to agriculture markets through the Conservative party either because that's what the Lib Dems will go for so it does look harder and harder to get things done, that is the frustration Great, right? Questions, I'm sure there's loads of questions for David Yes, just over there if you can say your name and I think we can, I think we'll allow some comments as well because we are in a very very uncertain and interesting world so hear people's comments as well Liam Sides I don't know what's going on with that I'll just talk instead, I'll leave it on there Liam Sides, I'm just interested What does the Tory party offer younger people today? Good question, I'll just repeat that for people online and what does the Tory party offer younger people David? The analysis which you've done earlier at Resolution does show indeed that you've now got an age divide in voting replacing the class divide so I think we need to offer far more to younger people I think that the, as I said, probably the most important one is a credible route to our property-owning democracy with credible routes to a pension that's worth something and being able to buy your own home I think those are the highest priorities I think there's then a wider issue in the culture wars which is the extent to which in the culture wars you find either deliberately or inadvertently you are challenging the attitudes of younger voters so I think as a minimum some kind of peace deal in the culture wars is probably something you need if you want to win back younger voters but if they're owners and if you're not fighting their cultural values I think again you can see a scenario through when I was working for Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s she was saving, her biggest public expenditure saving was linking the state pension to prices alone and she was getting over 40% of the votes of younger people I mean that's really, I mean what we see in voting passments now is it's very age skewed voting and so the key question I think there is do you see this as an age or a cohort effect is it just that when people get into middle age they get a bit more comfortable or at least the middle class upper middle class people get more comfortable and think now I'm going to be a vote Conservative so I want to protect that or are we seeing generational differences? Yes and I mean that is it is not an absurd political strategy to appeal systematically to the over 50s provided you don't find 10 years later you're appealing to the over 60s in which case you've got a problem and to the balance between it being life cycle effect I mean there is some evidence that when people throughout their adult lives are asked about the most important political events that have shaped their attitudes they tend to refer to events that happened when they're in their late teens and twenties and there's also some evidence that if you voted for the same party twice you're then quite likely to stick with it so that would suggest that there are cohort issues but interestingly in 2019 the Conservative Party did rather better amongst the younger voter than 2017 the most vivid example of the age segregated election actually was 2017 not 2019 so I think it is it is not unreasonable for the Conservative if the Conservative Party really wanted to one can see the outline of what a political strategy would be that would appeal to people as they entered middle age and older I was just trying to put a question from online but I think I've managed to fail to do it but I'll read it out instead which is how does a small state Conservative Party address the issues how will a low tax small state address the questions issues that were raised this morning is that actually possible? well it's the answer is public expenditure and tax is very likely to be on an upward trend because of pressures driven by demographics on health and pension spend so it's very hard to see how you can avoid those type of pressures especially as ironically those are programmes which Tory voters themselves are very keen on so yes it's hard to see how you get off some kind of slur upward trend on kind of small state as soon as you start saying nimble state effective state are the things that it's doing badly and shouldn't be bothering to do and other things it should focus on and we have limited capacity to do stuff so if we're really going to put all our resources and effort into something like the transition to net zero there's lots of other things we won't be able to do as soon as you start explaining that which I'm sure is the experience of any person here who's worked in government in Whitehall in whatever way there is limited bandwidth, there is limited capacity someone who said I'm going to use the state to solve a very long list of problems with much less credible than someone who said I've got some strategic discipline and I'm going to focus on these which are our highest priorities so again I can there is a part of the secret of British Conservatives it's kind of like a Mary Poppins bag if you open it up you find all these things almost any circumstances at some point a democratic party on the centre right has wrestled with them and has found a way through now and the question is whether it's got the capacity to do that renewal at the moment and I think it's and the tax cut debate is not going to get very far if it's transmuting to something more constructive and if small becomes nimble then we can make some progress Any other questions then? The second and the third row here William Clairsdor Smith David you touched upon trade and I wondered whether you actually believe that the Conservative Party is any longer a party of free trade or not Well I mean obviously we've just left a very large trade block I'm a shameless remainder I think that's a terrible blow to the British economy on trade that's why it's so interesting that's why this agriculture point is quite tricky I do think there's a genuine desire to go out and do what would be on any conventional measure free trading agreements with the US India which we haven't talked about but is clearly in current government thinking who knows how it might change but if it's Rishi it may well not change is a significant priority kind of target markets target strategic partner for lots of reasons including trade opportunities so yeah I think there will be a genuine attempt to negotiate significant free trade deals the trouble is they're bloody hard to do and we're leaving a single market in the customs union but I think the protectionist strand in conservatism which was very significant at various moments in our history I don't see that going back I think the Conservative Party remains fundamentally a believer in trade agreements even though Brexit has been a disaster and even though as you were saying that some of the agricultural elements of trade agreements are now going down badly in the rural areas yes I think that's another I remember talking to one minister at some stage of Brexit we were gossiping about this trade issue and he said to me I don't think we'll ever get a trade agreement through parliament he could not see how given the politics of these things there's no accident as I said earlier that you try to hand the power over to some alternative body I can't see a way we can get this report in reality we've ended up with a minimal level of parliamentary scrutiny of trade unions partly to try to make it possible to negotiate them there will be some nervous MPs from agricultural areas worried about the the Lib Dem vote but I think I suspect an Indian progress on negotiating a deal with India will be a very high priority other questions? Paul has levelling up died with Boris Johnson's premiership? I don't know it will partly depend on Michael's Go's role if any in a future government Greg Clarke and it's great to see Greg back Greg is definitely committed on all this so it will partly depend on personnel if you imagined a Michael Greg alliance in a Conservative candidate in the autumn I would be optimistic but it might not happen for either of them there is again the reality of the red wall seats and plus as I said this picture that again people in prosperous parts of south east like the idea that you're trying to do things for other parts of the country and there is I have to say an underestimated nimby element to all this which is a lot of those Tories in Surrey who don't like more housing in Surrey like the idea you're doing things to promote housing in other parts of the country so again you can see a way through but it is tricky because a lot will depend on personnel Final question I think time for one more no it's helpful for the mic for people online okay no problem so same question really but for net zero so how secure is net zero and do you in particular think there are risks that the net zero agenda gets wrapped up with the culture wars and that we kind of lose the focus that's required and will that present risks to the speed of the necessary transition thank you I I mean I I don't think that climate change denial is a powerful significant force amongst the candidates and likely composition of the next Tory cabinet what I do worry about and look I should I was in the cabinet when those big reductions in the home insulation spend happened and looking back I can see that that was one of our worst mistakes and one of my regrets is that even with 30 billion of spending going in and I reported this earlier there isn't a revival of that so I think the worst case scenario is in an attempt to find further public expenditure savings including raiding funding from a range of sources to focus entirely on the media income and consumption effect that green initiatives are not protected and lose out further that's the worst case scenario not with a rationale of climate change denial but just saying we've got to deal with it here and now the more optimistic one is indeed that you ramp up rapidly a home insulation programme you target that group of have to say particularly work-less younger men it's a better narrative for declining work-less young women make that into a job opportunity make it nationwide package it as part of a levelling up agenda we're going to be turning up in the streets of Bolton with new young men trained to install your put in the insulation and install your new heating system if we're lucky they'll do that but they've missed the opportunity this spring and it would be a great pity if we miss it again in an autumn statement right well I think that's time up for this session I'd just like to thank David hugely for stepping in and talking about the Conservative Party that he knows better than us at a time when we really don't know and I don't know much what's going on or what's going to happen maybe in a few weeks we'll know some more but give David a huge round of applause