 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Week five might have been a kind of a weird one But we get to close things out by watching Patrick Mahomes play football for tonight And what better way could we possibly have to finish things out? It is the Raiders at the cheese Monday night football We're gonna break things down from a betting perspective and let you know what we're seeing in tonight's game Between the Raiders and the cheese. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and numberfire.com My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com Join here as I am each Monday by Ryan Williams check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan it is Raiders at cheese going on tonight. How you doing? I'm doing well Jim. I'm doing well. It's it's a Monday I'm in new digs today So I'm hoping that the new digs bring, you know, some good juju along with us and no pun intended with juju being On this card as well But no, it's it's it's a fun one I think we have a a great matchup ahead of us I'm hoping for fireworks lots of scoring And we could use that after this some success that we had last night in Sunday night football It was a good night betting all around for Sunday It was a good night in DFS on Sunday And we're just carrying that over in week five as we start a new quarter here of the football season So I'm ready to get after it Jim. I feel so lucky to get to christen your new apartment. This is a very exciting for me Yeah, it should be. Maybe I'll give you the virtual tour after We'll do that we'll do that offline I don't think people want to see the the chaos that's going on around here thus far But you might be surprised man. I don't know YouTube can be a strange place, you know Do you know and I get it? I get it people are curious what people's lives? I understand for sure, but congratulations on the new place congratulations on getting most of moved in and My condolences as you spend the next week unpacking that does not sound fun to me. Oh, it's gonna be awful It's gonna be awful. So I need so I need this I need I need a football Monday to kind of bring us back to you know bring us back bring me back to the fold and Help me to help keep my mind off of the craziness Well, we'll try to keep Ryan saying by breaking down Raiders at chiefs here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are here every weekday Monday through Friday talking NFL Well, it's not only playoff talk with pitching Ninja on tomorrow as well get my first look at week number six Then I get to bet against the Cardinals this week, which I am thrilled to finally get to do So we'll talk about that on tomorrow's show Also, these podcasts do go up to the fine people over on the Fandall YouTube page So check out the Fandall YouTube page and covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and make sure you are subscribed Twisted tea and Fandall have joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind contest series It gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in site credit Introducing twisted teas college football picks a sports betting focused contest series. That's entirely free to play The contest is simple each college football game will be assigned a money line spread and total market with assigned points to each market All you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and their points for each correct Selection you made at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of site credit head to Fandall comm Slash twisted tea picks and make your picks and remember please drink responsibly Let's take a look here at the Raiders at the cheese right now the cheese seven and a half point favorites total is Fifty one and a half before I talk about those though, right? I want to get your overall impression of this game How you feeling entering this one between the Raiders and the cheese? Yeah, I'm feeling like you know, this is a Similar to what we experienced yesterday with the bells, right? Like people were kind of just like oh, you know There was the offense reeling it took them You know the fourth quarter to come back against the Baltimore defense that struggled can only put up 23 points And they come out against the Steelers at home and just kind of show what they're about And I mean I think that the chiefs can do that here in this matchup The chiefs have in the Patrick Mahomes era have been Incredible against this team This has been like the perfect spot for them to kind of circle on the calendar and be like hey if our Offense is reeling at any point in time. This is a get-right spot for us They have a seven-in-one record against the Raiders under Mahomes Versus this team the only win that the Raiders had was in 2020 and we know that 2020 was a weird year with the pandemic Other than that they have absolutely blown out this team and most of the matchups So I really let I really like the Kansas City side of things and we'll talk about that But I think overall in general. I think that the over is just screaming at me I mean 51 and a half in this total will not move Jim I don't get it. I mean the Raiders are gonna be in position. We know who the Raiders are like, you know They're we're gonna talk about Josh Jacobs. They're trying to establish him a little bit more But this team is gonna have to be forced to fast I mean the chiefs are if the chiefs bring it tonight like they always do against this team They have no reason but to try and go through the air and put up points And this is a defense on the Kansas City side where they're kind of been don't break I feel like they'll give up production, you know in yardage to these to these opponents But when they get in the red zone is is where it comes to fruition So if the if the Raiders can get something going here and you know get to their if they get to their team total There's no way that this game doesn't go over. I feel like but even then if they can just get you know 10 14 points I think the chiefs can help carry the over just by themselves. So that's kind of where I'm looking at I really just like the chiefs in this matchup And it's hard for me to kind of see the Raiders putting anything together on the road. I'll be it Talking about this matchup Tonight for money net football. Yeah, when I was looking at this Raiders team in the offseason I was somewhat like I don't know I think that there was cause to potentially think the defense might improve because they were awful last year And specifically in the past like their their rush defense is pretty good But despite the fact they had good personnel for rushing the passer They just couldn't do anything against the pass and they bring in Patrick Graham to be the defensive coordinator I have a pretty high opinion of him as a DC and so I was like, okay I'm gonna go in expecting the Raiders defense to be bad But I am receptive to changing that if they show signs of life with that change at DC with Graham They have not they currently rank if I combine my priors with the data we have from 2022 They rank 28th against the pass. That's pretty rough facing against an offense. That is just I mean even with the change Over they've had offensively they're still lighting the world on fire and they had that blip against the Colts, which was very very frustrated to watch but I think we can have a lot of faith in this chief's offense So my numbers actually do show value in the spread here. It's 8.5 My numbers have ever since 7.5 in the market right now I have not bet that because of the funky way that key numbers break down I kind of want a bit more of a of an edge there with it being it's not in the half right now The vikings kind of taught me a good lesson in that yesterday, you know the push but like whatever It's important to have more cushion for me when it's around that area So I have not bet the spread right now. I do show value in the chief side at minus eight minus seven and a half But I want to talk to you mentioned the total over 50 51 and a half Any interest for you in the spread on the chief side or the Raiders good enough to keep that game close I mean in Kansas City I'm going to be apt to bet the chiefs. I mean I really just feel like you know with the Raider And the Raiders have had some weird games thus far this season too. I mean the record kind of doesn't You know dictate the season for them unfortunately So I feel like this would be a little bit different But I mean even with even with the hook there past the magic number of seven I'm still Willing to go on the chiefs just because of their margin of victory Versus this team in historic fashion and them being at home A lot going in the chiefs favorite here. I think to get right and just really blow the doors off So yeah, I'm happy to get that seven and a half number I think that makes a lot of sense. So let's talk about the most intriguing aspect of this game I think at least for me. Maybe this is my like dfs brain coming out, but I like the backfields here I think they're very interesting because Clyde Edwards E-Lair's role has been A talking point this year because it's been odd He's had a lot of touchdowns But not a ton of usage did get a bit better this past week from a snap rate perspective and We've seen Josh Jacobs' role expand the past weeks. He's kind of become like a legitimate featured back in this offense So when you're looking at the rushing props here, anything standing out to you yet Not so much on the on the E-Lair side and it's just for me. I can never I just never feel like I get him right anytime that I'm like, oh man, he's been doing well You know, this is a this is a great play. This is a good matchup And you know, I think that people will look at it and say, okay The chiefs get up big This should be all Edwards E-Lair work that that comes through fruition and they can get him going And they've just had a propensity to get other guys involved We had seen this back when Daryl Williams was there in the fold when Damian Williams was there in the fold That they kind of just love to mix these guys in and we know that my homes is not Going to stop passing. I mean and the same thing with josh allen. Like it was a people thought devon singletary I included we're like man This would be a great game to kind of get devon singletary going if it's a 14 point spread And they get out of you know, they get out of hand and then josh allen just takes 30 points himself And they bring in james cook. This could be an isaiya pachako game I really feel like he could get involved a little bit more so and you know Maybe they feel like they don't need to put Edwards E-Lair in a situation Where he's going to get hurt if they're if they're you know, taking this game handedly He does have some interesting I think it's interesting to bet him in the touchdown prop market because he had he has had some success Against this Raiders defense when it comes to scoring and not necessarily rushing I also do like his receiving yardage prop of 18 and a half for clad Edwards E-Lairs So that's what i'm looking like that's what i'm looking for on the kc side Now when we talk about the the Raiders side of things with josh jacob's this guy has to be involved I mean we've been beating the drum for the Raiders to get josh jacob's involved to get him 20 touches a game Till the cows come home the past couple seasons and they refuse to do it and you love that last week He saw 28 carries and is getting targeted in the backfield. He's had 11 targets over the past two games He's 18 and a half for his receiving prop. I think that's Very interesting I think if you want to bet him rushing and receiving if they can somehow, you know, keep this game close neutral Don't let it get out of hand. They're going to get him involved and get him the ball He's the only way that they can you know get things going and he's actually had some success when it comes to You know scoring twice against the kansas city chiefs are scoring into the red zone So he also has some interesting Merit in the touchdown market prop, but you know from an overall standpoint gem I really think I got a look at the passing attack for both of these sides So you mentioned one of the key things that I might want to I have two bats in this backfield one of them You mentioned that's the josh jacob's receiving number 18 and a half yards It's minus one of six at fandals sportsbook You literally the 11 targets the past two weeks My only trepidation I did bet this before I thought about this So i'm talking you through my thought process so maybe you can get more thought before doing this um My own trepidation with that is that hunter renfrow miss both those games and now hunter renfrow will be back for this one And they kind of operate in a similar part of the field. The reason I Still feel okay That I bet that in retrospect. This could just be like copium on my part, but um jacob's had 16 receiving yards week one with renfrow there He had 12 and week two with renfrow there and he's kind of moved beyond Brain and bold in a mirror of doulas a mirror white from a past catching perspective. So even if we Reinsert hunter renfrow in that lineup. I still think jacob's can get there over 18 and a half It's not like mac collins is getting no targets My guess is that the guy who gets burned the most by renfrow coming back is mac collins Which allows jacob's to still get a decent amount of work So I do like jacob's over 18 and a half receiving yards specifically the other one I like over at fandal I didn't expect to see this prop up because I thought this guy was pretty dusty and it was pretty evident this past week Clyde Edwards, or sorry, jerryck mckinnon jerryck mckinnon's rushing plus receiving orders prop is 25 and a half He barely played last week. Well, he kind of got squeezed with more pecheco rotating in with more edwards e-layer He gets more snaps as well McKinnon had played 39 of the snaps in each game the first three games That dropped down to 22 percent this past week and a lot of times when he was playing It was inside the red zone not getting a lot of yardage there. He could score, but he's not going to get a lot of yardage so The receiving uh plus rushing prop is 25 and a half He has hit that once so far this year. He had a zero point zero yards last week So I want the under there, uh just based on kind of what you said pecheco did get more involved last week And it wasn't just when that game was at a hand So you could say hey mckinnon is more the past catching guy if they fall down Um, you know last week they were up big against hamford bay. That's why he was squeezed out. Well, okay There's seven and a half point favorites here. My numbers say it should be eight and a half so McKinnon under 25 and a half rushing plus receiving that is my preferred one over the jacob's past catching one But I think both those very very okay, and ones I feel comfortable doing so to me I think my favorite bet of the entire game honestly is mckinnon under 25 and a half rushing plus receiving yards over there You mentioned the past catchers though. So let's talk about those past catchers here talk about the return of hunter renfrow here He is back juju smith schuster though. Uh, he might be a bit banged up. He got in a limited practice on saturday Sounds like he'll be okay But potentially not at 100 so any value for you in the past catching props for this week Yeah, I mean It's it's gonna start with kelsey for me I mean kelsey has has really, you know, exploited this team in the past I believe his his receptions prop on the fandals sportsbook right now is over six and a half at minus 120 That feels kind of juiced up. But when you look at what he's done against the raiders, you know, I mean Last I think the last game was maybe five or seven receptions But he's really been around that number and has had a couple eights mixed in there So, I mean this could be similar to the cooper cup thing you're talking about juju being injured Mbs really hasn't had the chance to get going yet You know, there could be running free lanes. They might not have to dump it off to the backs as much And and so I really like like kelsey there. I also like the kelsey You know, it's hard to bet on the anytime touchdown. He's the favorite in the market and that makes sense He has not scored a touchdown at at home this year. Actually, they've all been on the road They've only played one home game. This is their second one this season I think it's interesting and has some merit to bet kelsey two touchdowns Which again is the favorite in the market, but if you're gonna bet him, you know at minus 130 or whatever it is on the fandals sportsbook Why not take the over four to one odds for him to score twice because we know that, you know When kelsey goes off it comes in bunches. So He's actually done that a couple times against this team. So I do like him If I was taken a wide receiver on the on the chiefs on their total I I would look at mbs to go 40 and a half there just because he has that big play ability He's getting the deep targets as far as an a dot perspective on this team So I do like that and then the return of hunter renfro I think it's interesting. I mean his yardage prop is kind of a tough one to swallow But if you can, you know, 43 and a half is where it's at If you can get behind the receptions if you do think that, you know That josh Jacobs is gonna suffer. He's at four and a half right now And I mean he's been all over the field and he's been another catalyst that they've had to use against this team Just because of in the past how the how the defense has played how the safety is played Under under the coordinator. I think that, you know, he has some merit to get over the field So it's it's tough because I do like I do like the Raiders side of things from the passing perspective I mean even, you know, you're looking at darin waller With his 240 anytime touchdown. I think is is very interesting as well I'm I can't I don't know what to expect from davante adams in this game And that's what's really driving a wrench in everything for me on their side Like I you know, I know that in the past we could just trust Aaron rogers to kind of feed davante adams in in any type of situation where he needed him And I think that there's so I hate using the so many mouths to feed because, you know All these teams have great players and they have so many mouths But it it does feel like on the Raiders that darin card just cannot, you know, he's not going to hone in on him You know, if there's trouble he's got jacob's ren for a waller You know mac hollowins all these other guys and adams just kind of helps open things up for all of them Are you reading into anything for for adams in your models? He's volatile like that's just that's kind of what it is Where he I think he still is the same ceiling that he had previously But like his median expectation is lower the floor is lower And that's kind of where i'm at is just there's a lot of volatility there and That can be good and bad if you can still at the high end of your range of outcomes But when you're betting like receiving yardage props It's not really the the ceiling you care about it's it's the median and the median has been lowered As a result of the way they've been playing things The range of outcomes discussion is also pertinent for marquez valdez scantley You mentioned him as being guy 40 and a half. I think that that's like an intriguing number Problem is he's also like davante where he's volatile right now and he's always volatile But like I think that you could take the stance of okay, jujula would banged up Um, you know, we're davante adams workload is weird. Kelsey's obviously very good, but There is at least a path to marquez valdez scantling having a big game now typically that would lead you to the alternate receiving yardage market That's not out He's not a big enough name to get a to get placed in alt market on at least not a fan duel some other books have checked out as well There's no alternate market there. However, you could and I've not done this, but just you know, you could check out Maybe marquez valdez scantling to lead the game in receiving yards. He's 12 to 1 to do that and With the way with the kinds of targets he gets with uh with juju being a bit banged up I don't think that's totally outlandish. Uh davante adams plus 160 travis kelsey plus 240 12 to 1 for mvs given the way he can operate Uh, he's now healthier than he was because he had that abdominal injury entering this past week I don't mind that so I think I'm on board with you with the thought process of maybe looking his way I think I just want to get a bit more upside if i'm doing so Potentially via that route. Is that a bridge too far for you and mvs? No, I mean we we've kind of seen it before. You know, it's funny that we're talking about adams and mvs Former erin rogers targets here in this game But yeah, I mean if he can connect and there have been some opportunities I haven't watched all the chiefs games But from the ones that I can remember he has gotten some chances on deep shots that have just not come to fruition Whether my home's has missed him or he couldn't grab the catch or what have you and that was that was kind of trouble with him When he was on the packers as well too of letting some letting some things go But this is a guy. I mean he can take the top off of the defense. He's not a tyreek hill I mean he's not and they brought him in to kind of somewhat replace what they were going to be missing in that standpoint But he does offer some upside there. I mean if he can get behind the defense and bring down the catch You're looking at this guy, you know taking off for 40 50 60 yard Catch anytime he's on the field. So I do think there is some merit there for him to be explosive And have you know have like a three catch 125 yard game or something like that Which could come to fruition at 12 to 1 I'd be willing to take a shot on that If he could just give me a game davis a 98 yard or to start things off and I could be happy the rest of the game Like, you know, I'm not going to complain. Let's try to manifest that As we do with game this past week. You mentioned darin wallers anytime touchdown He is plus 240 to score at fan duel right now Is that your favorite touchdown prop or the others you're in on for tonight? Uh He's not my favorite. I I think there is some merit there. I mean, I say up a checker at at 210 Even though it's a lot, you know, he what is he the seventh highest or sixth highest? Touchdown score there. So that, you know, it kind of feels gross But I do think that there is some merit there with how he's been involved to, you know, get some get some usage in there Uh, I mean, I think for me really it's going to be You know These touchdown markets are are tough this week because I feel like there's so many different routes where I could go and the favorite You know, like normally plus money on davante adams I'd be willing to take that all all all day But with hunter and fro come in back and just not knowing I do think that if I had to bet on a rate on a Raiders side, my favorite one would be josh jacob set 125 Um, because I do feel like they will try and you know, kind of use some on the goal line In the red zone just kind of get him going there. They don't want to have car make a mistake Um, so I think that josh jacob's can be seeing a lot of work there in the red zone in the green zone for his touches I am probably going to Probably have a full unit on kelsey's scoring twice just because I just feel like this is you know This is one of those games where I feel like they just try and get him going, you know in front of the home crowd Um, you know kind of struggled last week. So I just I just feel like a kelsey game Coming and especially if I'm looking at the chiefs putting up, you know for touchdowns plus I'm happy to get in on that number for him even though he is the favorite of the market Um in the two touchdown market prop. I'm still I'm still leaning that way. Yeah I think that's uh, that's the fun one for sure going back to pacheco. You mentioned that It seems like they've been using it more in the red zone. That's true That is a a factual assertion. So last week overall a snap rate was 22 very good number Uh, excuse me 24 week one, but that was a blowout. Um, so I don't care about that one 22% last week that number rose to 33% inside the red zone He played uh six out of 18 snaps there same number as clito towards e-layer same number as jerry mckinnon Again, mckinnon played more he played like a wild cat quarterback snap uh in the the red zone this past week if you Look at uh from 12 yards and in pacheco's snap rate there was four at 11 so 36 percent kept on expanding there Not a ton of sample inside like near the goal line, but I think that you're you might be right in the way you're reading that in the terms that they might want to get A more involved we saw this like it was a couple years ago the bills Would always get isaam a kenzie involved Inside the red zone because he was like this this fast dude. They're like, okay You're not you're like you are locked on the sidelines if we are between the 20s You will not touch the beat But once we're in the red zone you are allowed to leave the white chalk on the sidelines You can go in the game as a little treat I don't know if this is quite a pacheco thing there But it does seem as though they're more willing to use and try to get that juice when things are more concentrated so I think that there could be some merit to that thought um again snap rate increased inside the red zone this past week He had three out of 16 red zone chances, which is not a big number But um the snap rate was good down there So I think that that is at least a viable thought process For pacheco, but the kelsey one is fun six to one for two touchdowns at vandal sportsbook Any other props you like for tonight at vandal sportsbook here ryan? Yeah, we got a we got a couple. I mean I talked about the the total At nauseam and I think that I'm gonna hit that five games in a row have hit over this number of 51 and a half So let's go all in on that if I'm going all in on that number. Let's take the chief's team total points of 31 and a half minus 106 on the vandal sportsbook is where it comes in at now The chief's in the petch my home's here. I have not scored less than 28 points against this raiders team All they need is you know four more points to come to fruition now It is the one thing that is interesting about the the team total and the total in general is You know, Daniel carlson on the other side, which I looked at his kicker prop He's over six over six and a half points for him is juice that minus 130 because this guy has nail field goals against this team They can't it's the same drives. They're putting up six points nine points three points They're always getting Daniel carlson involved the the chief's on the other hand. They don't have Harrison bucker for this game They are gonna have you know the backup kicker So that becomes interesting when you're looking at the team totals and sides of things But I think they score enough touchdowns to really get to that number Um Patrick my home's over and I have touchdowns plus 132 I I pretty much always tell you that anytime Patrick my home's has an over touchdown prop and it's plus money I'm gonna be willing to take it So I gotta I gotta take that number there with Patrick my home's and then lastly Derek car is minus 102 to throw an interception against this team This guy has thrown an interception in seven straight games I believe against the chief's and some have been multiple Some games have been multiple interceptions. So I at 102 pretty much almost plus money I'm willing to put a unit on that as well I'm with Derek car You know having the propensity to have to throw and then through that they could just scheme up ways to You know make it tough for him and make make an easy mistake. So I'll take that all day as well I think the kicking point is actually a pretty good thing to bring up to as there's as it pertains to key numbers Because the total for this game 51 and a half that's right around a key number 51 The team team total for the chiefs 31 and a half that's right right around a a a key number of 31 and Key number is still matter if your kicker is banged up, but there is I don't know. It's it's a bit of a weirder distribution When they may be more inclined to go for two They may be more inclined to keep the offense out there on fourth down stuff like that So it's an important thing to keep in mind because key numbers matter a lot and I think in that specific situation It could be a bit different as well because of the kicking situation for Kansas City right now Hopefully bucker gets back soon because it's More chaos in chiefs games not typically a thing that we necessarily need That's all we got here for this Monday night football game between the Raiders and the cheese It should be a pretty fun one. We'll see how things play out We'll see if we can get that Kelsey to touchdown prop over a fangirl sportsbook at six to one again Don't forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast back once again tomorrow talk about some And there'll be playoff pitching props with pitching ninja We'll also go through my first look at week number six and get my thoughts on those games there What my numbers are seeing in those games ryan Congratulations again on the move. Good luck to you with the unpacking and good luck to you with your bets for tonight Yeah, we'll we'll make sure that the bets get in before anymore unpacking gets done But but no, it's it's gonna be a fun ride. Happy to be able to just enjoy this time Set on the couch. Hopefully you get a good game ahead of us and raking the money So good luck to everybody out there That is the goal. Absolutely. Check out ryan on twitter ryan alexander underscore w I am on twitter at gymsonus j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Enjoy the games everybody will talk to you once again tomorrow for some nlb and nfl This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network