 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a pretty good trading week, a lot of stuff going on. But I want to kind of share with something with you guys, especially for all you new traders. I think this is a pretty good advice. In the 1990s basically, I grew up in Brooklyn. That was probably the best time of my life. Me and my friends, all of us especially grew up in the Brighton Beach area. If anybody is listening to this watching this broadcast, you guys kind of remember this. We used to play basketball. I would say, especially in the summertime, we'd wake up in the morning, 9 o'clock in the morning we'd be in the park. We'd be in the park and there would be literally pickup games from 9 o'clock in the morning and we'd go home at 8 o'clock in the night, change and come back out again. It was a great time. It was an absolute great time in our lives. And unfortunately, somewhere around 16, 17 years old, I tore my ACL. I still played some ball from time to time but it was never the same. And I remember when we were younger, we were pretty good. It was all the time that we put in and all the effort but we just had the love of the game. And I remember when there was older kids that would come on and keep this in mind, at that time we were what? 13, 14, 15 years old. So when 16, 17, 18 year old kids would come in the park, we believe that we needed to prove something to them. We wanted to show them how good we were. This is our park. It's all about us. We're going to show you how good we are. And the moral of the story was because again, experience and physical presence is always more available and more strong than somebody who is weaker or smaller or has less experience. And what would happen was we would get killed. We would get killed on the court. We'd get run off the court. The biggest ramification was that our ego would be bruised, our butt would be bruised. We have some bumps and bruises along the way, but we were fine, right? We would find we'd wake up in the morning, we'd do it all over again. Again, we needed to prove something to the older kids. It was our court, right? It was our court. Nobody's going to beat us in our court, okay? But there was a level of respect, okay? Unfortunately, when you translate that into the modern world and because of social media, okay? There is a whole representation of newer traders, okay? And because of social media, and again, they have the right to say whatever they want. They have to have an opinion. But there's an arrogance level to the novice trader, to the person who maybe found some success, okay? In this most rabid bull markets that we can remember in generations, okay? I think everybody could agree with that. And their ability not to retain information, but try to create their own and put their thoughts, right? And put their thoughts and their ideas and their opinions onto traders that have been trading 10, 12, 15, 20 years. And there's absolutely nothing wrong with that, right? There's absolutely nothing wrong with that. But what I find in this generation of social media and what I find the generation just in general, maybe it's a little bit of a disconnect, it's more important for the 21-year-old who made 250 bucks last month, okay? It's more important for that person to be right, okay? And really show the veteran how impressive they are, then actually to retain information, okay? Ask some questions and put yourself on a situation that you're building for the future with good content, right? Good information that you're consuming. And unfortunately, you go through all these different levels of social media platforms and you see that same random avatar. Names are different, the pictures are different, but it's the same thing. You don't know what you're talking about, okay? I've been trading for a year and a half, right? I made some money. How can you tell me that I'm wrong, right? I love Roku. I think it's going to break out. This, you know, this sell-off is a gift. I love Facebook. I think it's going to hold. It's going to go higher. This is a gift. You're an idiot. You're a schmuck. You're a moron. These are all true, by the way. I am an idiot. I'm a schmuck. I'm a moron. But I've been doing this for 20 years, okay? And the one thing that I've learned in the 20 years is it's not about being right. It's not about showing somebody the size of your sec for all intents and purposes, okay? It's about being a professional trader. Whether you're trading for a week or you're trading for 20 years, act like you're a professional trader, okay? Guys, the one thing that I will tell you, especially for you new traders, I understand it. When you're 20-something, you want to prove to the world that you belong. You want to prove to the world that you are smart. But the problem is you are in the most unforgiving business of all time, okay? There is no mulligans. There is no do-overs, okay? This is the type of business that if your information is not perfect and you're not retaining it the right way and your process can't match the information, the reality that's in front of you, you are going to get killed, okay? It's not a point of being right or wrong anymore. The arrogance that you think, the entitlement that you think, the opinion that you think is right could be the complete opposite of what you're actually seeing in the marketplace, okay? And it's all fine and dandy when you have a linear bull market, right? It's like somebody told me years and years ago, hey, Dan, you know what? I see you shorting some stocks. I only like buying stocks, you know, I only like buying breakouts. And this is in the middle of the most rabid bull market. And my question is, well, that's great, but what do you do when the market goes down? And that person's answer is, what do you mean? Right? I mean, so the arrogance level that I've seen on social media and I don't even want to call it disrespect. Does anybody really care about the respect factor from some John Joe with an avatar of, you know, like a ninja turtle telling you your position is wrong? Does anybody really care about that? But it's more of self-reflection because when the market does pull back and obviously we're seeing a pretty aggressive pullback with a very, very aggressive catalyst. But first, you know, again, we were watching to see how much legs this health scare actually had and now it has legs, okay? It has legs and now you're starting to hear and see in reports about all these different cases popping up all over the place. And Friday we actually heard about a case popping up in Queens, New York. I don't know if that was confirmed or not, but it's starting to get legs and starting to get very, very long legs. And the moral of the story is, guys, when you're 20-something years old and you're trading for a year and you're trading for six months and you're trading for eight months and you're trading for a year and a half. I'm sorry, but there's no substance behind your ability to tell a veteran trader what they're doing is wrong, okay? At this stage of your career in your first year, two years, three years you should put yourself in a situation with a lot of humbleness, okay? And try to retain as much information from a person who is willing to share with you. Not to berate them and not to call them names and not to call them amaurons. You're in this for 30 seconds. Some people are trading for 30 years. You're doing this for 30 seconds. What can you possibly share with another person who's been doing this for two, three decades that they haven't already forgot before you even knew, okay? So the ability of having respect for the trading business and understanding that we're all one big tribe. Some of us might not know each other. Some of us might not know the other persons exist and exist, but the moral of the story is traders are one big tribe. We're a unit, okay? Nobody understands what we go through but us. Nobody will share any type of good, bad or different experience than us, okay? So instead of trying to show somebody how strong and how smart and how, you know, how incredible you are, let's learn from each other, right? I'm not, you know, my book hasn't been written. I'm still trying to learn. I learn every day. I figure out what try not to do every single day. So the ability of a trader that's been trading for five months, six months, a year and a half telling me or sharing their opinion to me, well, I don't think Roku's going to go lower. You're an idiot. Okay, 10 points lower. It's lower, right? So the scoreboard. So again, guys, this business is very unforgiving, okay? What you want to do is try to surround yourself with so many people that number one will give you a positive outlook, okay? But number two, give you a life support that you don't shoot yourself in the foot. And the more times you go out on social media and make a complete ass of yourself telling a trader, right? Telling a trader that they don't know what they're talking about. They're only doing it 20, you know, two decades, right? They don't know what they're talking about. And then two days later, you know, you're underwater significantly, okay? You're doing it backwards, okay? You're doing it backwards. So humble yourself, okay? Humble yourself. Nobody cares about your opinion, okay? It's all about price action. It's all about reading market sentiment. It's all about risk. You think that Roku is a buy when it's going in free fall and moving down and going lower and about to take technical damage or Facebook looks about to come back more, had horrible earnings about to confirm and have more technical damage below 201. All these things nobody cares about, okay? Nobody cares about. Sit still, right? Sit still, keep your eyes open, keep your ears open, ask a lot of questions, okay? Just try to be a normal human being, okay? And then everything else will work out fine. Just kind of a little bit of an advice. Because again, I think a lot of people really, really need it, okay? Just be a good person. Just be a good person. Take a step back. Nobody cares, right? Nobody cares. We'll help you every step of the way. We'll answer all your questions, right? Do our best. But nobody's going to sit around and hold your hands as you berate them to tell them how big an idiot they are. Nobody likes that. So let's talk about the tape, right? So the big health scare. Last week, I thought the market did a really good job. I thought the market did a very, very good job in starting to negate, okay? I think that's the best way of saying it. Starting to negate this health scare, okay? And if you could see it by three, four days in a row, as the health scare was getting stronger and stronger and stronger, Wall Street starting to kind of use deaf ears on it. We knew it was there, right? But we started looking at technicals. We started looking at earnings for guidance, which way it was going to go. And it all was good, right? It all was good and it was playing out that way technically. And then Friday, we started to hear many more exaggerated cases spreading through major parts of different countries. Again, is it to the point of death con 100? No. It was starting to get scary. And once you start hearing cases pop up, again, whether they're confirmed or not confirmed, whatever the case may be, that's when it gets really, really scary because when you see a case potentially, for example, in New York City, okay, and that person is getting on a subway with eight million people, that could be scary. And the market reflected that. This is the first day that we can remember, even with that big gap down that was bought, that was literally bought and taken higher for the next three days. Friday was the first day. You can still see very, very aggressive selling and a lot of names. Again, some names held up very, very well. We'll talk about them in a few minutes. But it was the first day that we could see really, really great potential, what could happen next week. And when this weekend is unfolded, and again, this is Super Bowl weekend, there's a lot of stuff going on. And again, this was a really, really somber week for a lot of people with Kobe Bryant and his daughter and the other seven people unfortunately passing away. It was very, very somber week, so I don't think a lot of people even put a lot of stock in actually what was going on. But now that we are hearing global confirmed cases of this coronavirus, it's starting to get some legs. Okay, it's really, really starting to get some legs. And now it's all about looking at sentiment from the trading point of view. Okay, looking at sentiment and saying where is the value. And going into this week, into this new week here, I did my chart work. I would say I'm pretty much 95, five cell bias. I literally found maybe a couple of names that I like to the upside. So I think going into this week is just like any other week. You're not going to sensationalize what potentially could happen. Look, is it possible we get a 3, 400 point gap down again? Absolutely, very possible. But again, if that is the case, again, know your levels. There is no panic mode. The same way you would make your game plan to the upside, you would make your game plan to the downsides. There's no difference. The only difference is are you going to be arrogant enough to think that buy the dip theory is going to work every single time. It works great in a bull market, right? But again, as I say all the time, this is the only business that when things are on sale, people don't want to buy. So before you turn around and say, you're an idiot, just buy the dip. No, you go buy the dip. You go buy the dip. And let me know what happens technically if there is technical damage. So it's very, very important to understand that fact. So I personally thought this week was pretty solid. I thought it was a solid week. I know a lot of you guys did very, very well on Tesla. I know a lot of you guys did very, very well on Amazon. We've been talking about those call buyers both in Tesla and Amazon for weeks, for weeks. And again, Tesla is in its own bull market, man. This is just ridiculous. I mean, absolutely ridiculous. But it's amazing to see that every dip literally gets bought. And again, it's very important to understand that this is the type of stock that when you go back into history, you'll see that, and again, there will definitely be war stories behind the stock 10 years from now, just like the way there was in Taser, just like the way there was like iOmega, for example, you guys have been trading for a long time. So you'll know this is going to be one of the most standout names in the generational trading cycle. And it just keeps on going higher. It's just amazing. It keeps on going higher. Again, I don't know how many shorts are actually left. Okay. If you were short to stock probably in the last two weeks, it's not pretty, right? It's not pretty. I personally have a very, very hard time believing that people were still short to stock with two, 300 points. Again, I can't sit in this thing for two, three points. You're talking about 300 points? Okay. Okay. But it is very, very important to kind of put yourself in a situation that you know, you know what's going on. It's real, not what you hope is going to happen. And I thought this week was very solid. I thought Friday, surprisingly, it started slow. Friday's session actually started slow. I started seeing more value in bounce plays. Okay. But my first bounce play, and this is when I knew I thought the sell-off was going to be a little bit more exaggerated. That's when we started actually looking at some downside pivots. I started noticing the stronger names were not holding their 60-minute cycle. So for example, in my first trade of the day, I bought Apple on this remount, not down here, obviously. I bought Apple on this remount right over here, right? Right over here off this 31680s wash, right? 31680s wash. And it only put up a bounce of, I think it was like 40 cents, right? And right away, you could see the sellers coming in. So I sold some stock. Again, obviously not a big bounce. I sold some stocks. I use break-even as my stock. I always do. And then I just watched it collapse, like really, really collapse. I also, for example, did Microsoft as well. So I did Microsoft right over here, right? I did Microsoft, actually, excuse me, right over here. And it just took too long, right? I went up like 10 cents, 15 cents. What's great about these bounce plays, if they don't bounce within the first couple of minutes, off the rising 60-minute support, it will give you a couple of minutes to kind of get data. And if it's just weak, you just can't, you could always get out of this thing, break-even or slippage. So I had two bounce plays on Microsoft and Apple. And Microsoft, I broke even on Apple. I made a couple bucks, but it really did show me what potentially is going to happen later, okay? And that's where we started looking at more downside natural pivots. And that's where you see everything started opening up the floodgate. So, for example, Roku really got killed. And this was the first one. If you guys remember, this was the first one on Friday to really get killed, okay? And I didn't trade Roku at all. I didn't trade Roku at all on Friday. I was looking at other things. Because again, I still wanted to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. So I was watching Roku and I go, wow, this is an ugly, ugly candle. Really, really ugly candle. I had time at, you know, everything was said and done, this thing was down 10 bucks. And you started seeing more clues. The bounce plays weren't working, okay? Or at least, excuse me, the bounce plays weren't working well. There were still some bounce plays that we had in the room, for example, like NVIDIA. NVIDIA here put up a beautiful dollar bounce. There was one or two others. There was actually this little stock BIMI. I tweeted out this BIMI. You'll see it here in a second. I tweeted out this little stock BIMI. Just to give you guys an example that you don't need to trade beta, you don't need to trade beta to take advantage of these channels. You don't need to. So for example, I tweeted this out on this little stock Bimi on Friday, so I tweeted out on this little stock Bimi on Friday and I said, hey, Bimi, for all you small cap lovers, it just retraced into the $390, $397 area, $4 reclaim, you can go later. And again, this is what's great about technical analysis. Technical analysis works, whether you're trading a $5 stock, $500 stock, or $5,000 stock, it's all about process. It's not about the trade that you are physically putting on in the price dimension that you're trading. It's all about how you perceive technical analysis, how you embrace it. These things are working very, very well. But the one thing that I kept on seeing over and over again how strong stocks couldn't hold, and somebody told me, Amazon's going to $2,300 next week, yeah, there's a 150 point move off the top with no real balance after the first two candles. So maybe, maybe not, but again, not a great sign, right? Not a great sign if anybody bought here, well, it's all the way down here. So next week, again, can Amazon wake them and go higher? Absolutely, of course. But again, we have to be conscious now in this bottom range to see if it starts dropping below that. But the day actually, Friday actually turned out to be a pretty decent day, actually pretty solid day. Let's talk about it. Here are some pivots from Friday's session. Again, there wasn't a lot of them just because we were concentrating in the morning on the bounce plays, but they actually did pretty, pretty well. So let's talk about it. So IBM, this is one of the ones that is actually strong going into this week. IBM, we talked about this in the channel, $140,000 to $190,000, $143,000. It needs to build. That earnings high, and that's going to be the magic number going into this week, this $144 area. IBM actually held up like a champion. It actually did hold up like a champion. It got above that $142, $143 area and tested $144, touched a little bit. I think it still needs to reclaim. So this is definitely one of the stronger ones. And then you'll see a whole bunch of pivots that I put onto the upside because, again, we want to give the market the benefit of the doubt, which obviously never even got close. The Roku never got close. Apple never got close. These are the ranges, the initial ranges that we talked about in the morning. We'll talk about the upside here in a second. Obviously NVIDIA never got close. Obviously NOW never got close. Obviously BYND never got close. And that's, again, when we were giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt. And then things started turning, right? Things started turning here. And this was actually a pretty good pivot. This is a pretty good pivot here. I chased it up a little bit. I did chase it up a little bit. $341.50, $342 needs to build. Again, experienced trades only. Again, guys, this is one of those times that, yeah, everybody wants to trade Tesla because it's the hot stock. But you have to realize that if you've never traded Tesla, I've been trading Tesla out for years. So this is all normal to me. Maybe the liquidity is worse. Maybe the moves are bigger. But I've been trading Tesla for years. So this is all normal to me. So if you're a new trader, you have no business being in the stock. You don't. Long, short, indifferent. This is just not for you. Understand your lane. Understand your comfort zone. Understand your experience later. Move on. Move on. It's a cool story. Everybody's talking about it. It's great. Water cooler talk. But this is not a trade for you to make your bones. I promise you, both long and short, it's not for you. So here is the pivot here. Here is the pivot here on the 60-minute view right over here, right? Right over here. So here is the pivot right here. 341, 341. And a half 342 pivot, right? 341, 342 needs to build. And I paid $1 higher for it. I paid 343 for it, because I couldn't get the liquidity. That was the one thing that I was really, really angry about this move, because it put up a $7 candle. I couldn't get any liquidity on the trade. So I had to pay up an extra $1.50 for the trade. But once it finally got loose, it went up as high as to like 46 and change initially. It was a good trade. The trade was fine. There was absolutely nothing wrong with it. But again, the liquidity and the spreads kind of damaged the really, really good aggressive pivot. This is why I'm saying, new traders, this is not for you. Just leave it alone. And then towards the end of the day, this is when I already logged off, and I logged on and go, wow, this stock is just absolutely amazing. So this week, this whole top of the range here, this thing starts confirming if we get a snap back in the market. Man, this thing could see 37380. But again, we'll see. We'll see what happens there. That was a pretty good move here. Facebook got destroyed. Congratulations to all you guys who caught Facebook. Again, 204.75, that was the low of the after hours low of Facebook's earnings. If you look at Facebook's earnings here here, here's the absolute low here, right? The 204.75, I said, hey, if this thing starts building below that 204.75, it can get hit. I thought it could get to 201. I've been tweeting that all on the way down. And look at the low of the day, right? Again, there's no accidents where stocks stop. They stop on demand and stop perfectly on this 201 level. This week, if this 201 confirms, it'll go down all the way down to 97. So that was a really, really big move there on Tesla, excuse me, on Facebook. Then there was a sneaky pivot on Amazon, which obviously never got down there. New lows, and like I said here, 201 next support, that's exactly where it came. Beyond got hit. Beyond got hit. Here's the problem with Beyond. Beyond has actually been a pretty good trader, both long and short. PRs galore all over the place. The problem with Beyond is right now, nobody knows when they actually have earnings. There was four different reports. They were supposed to report last week, they were supposed to report end of this week, they were supposed to report somewhere in February. Nobody can pinpoint a date, a specific date. I'm gonna try again to check this afternoon, but nobody knows when the damn thing comes out with earnings. So you have to be very careful, because I could just even see them even releasing earnings in the middle of the day. So 1288, huge area of support, if it builds below, can flush. Obviously here you see take down. Here it goes, here it goes. So here is BYMD, right? So here was the 288, excuse me, here is the 1288. Everybody see this candle? This is the rising candle into 10-day support. Again, 10-day support is very, very important to me. 1288, I thought the stock can get down to 108 and yada, yada, yada. Look at the low of the day, it is 108.03. So beautiful move, congratulations for you guys. According to Facebook, Tesla, BYMD, some decent balance plays, no doubt. Some decent balance plays today as well. Take on this move. I mean, Tesla's just the greatest stock, it really is. Here, 108 on deck, on Facebook, flush it. Good job there. Option Brian, killer move 108. So good stuff, so good stuff, so good stuff. So I think going into this week, I think going into this week here, again, I'm 95% sell bias, okay? It doesn't mean that I'm not gonna trade to the upside, it just means I'm 95 sell bias until the market once again can start really controlling these headlines and again the whole global confirmed case of this corona. It's scary, it really is starting to get scary. So I am definitely 95% sell bias. Let me give you guys some names that I do like going into this week and they're all pretty much higher priced names. Yeah, again, Facebook, look, I think Facebook goes lower. If this 201 confirms, I think the stock goes to 97 to 95. I like clack, I like clack to the downside. Again, anything to do with China and disease and this, remember all these chips are made in China. Look at clack, it stopped on perfectly on support. If it starts losing the support, somewhere around that 65 area, it could flush down again. If the market is gonna go lower, these things are gonna get killed. Verisign had a really, really nice run, big high flyer. Again, it's very, very close to breaking down. Verisign starts breaking down at 207 level. It has a lot of room. It has a room all the way down to 201. I like synopsis short as well. Again, these stocks are just all breaking down technical damage levels of daily support. Synopsis starts losing that 47, it's gonna go lower. The only couple of names that I actually do like, that I do like on the long side, I do like IBM. Keep an eye on this thing. Let's definitely keep an eye on this thing, especially if the market is fairly okay. There is no technical damage, but let's watch this thing. If there is any type of gap down, let's definitely keep an eye on this rising 60 minutes support if it holds, or if it starts reclaiming that 144 level of owning watch. And Tesla, until it starts losing 60 minutes support, and you can see here, you can just see it by a visual eye here. This is all 60 minutes support. Until it starts losing 60 minutes support, again, you have to give it the benefit of the doubt in any time it runs down. You can see it, anytime it runs down to the bottom of support, it gets bought. So ideally, you kind of want to buy it on the bottom of support, on a remount thing. Let it go through and if it remounts, it should go higher. But it's a very, very few plays that right now that you can turn around on the long side and say, this looks great. So the idea, if you see somebody on social media talking about this stock is breaking out, no, the stock's not breaking out. The stock is just higher than its peers in a market that is very, very sour with negative sentiment. So be very, very careful that what you call breaking out. There's no such thing as breakouts if the market starts collapsing. It's all stocks that are making moves to the upside. You have to take them from grain to salt. So guys, enjoy this Super Bowl, enjoy your life. We only get one. And again, guys, for all you new traders, just take a step back, man. You don't need to prove to everybody how smart you are. We believe in you. We want you to succeed. We want you to succeed. Nobody wants another trader to fail. Again, like I said, we're a global family. We might not know each other, okay? But it's so important instead of talking nonsense to another trader, especially you don't even know that trader, what their time horizon is, what their exit plan is. Instead of just trying to put your will into that person's head, just try to understand that everybody's different, that everybody's gonna have an opinion. Respect that opinion, okay? Respect that opinion that we could all thrive as one. Guys, God bless everybody. I love you all and I'll see you all next week. Take care, guys. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. 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