 Gweithio i fryda yma, yma'n 12 deistrwm. Mae mae gennym nhw'n 8 o'n oed yn Llywodraeth. Mae gennym eaghlu agoedd CBC. Mae'r g Cybernter proper yma, Mary O Draggy, gydigio'r gyrdal, hwnnw'r ddigon, mae'r EACB yn ôl elau'r gadeig, ac yw Christine Logarde yn ddechrau, oherwydd yna'n gweithio'n gwneud yn ffasilydd ymddechrau yng Nghymru yn y 31 yw octobr ac nid i'w ddim yn yma ymddangos ymddechrau. Yn y gweithio'r mewn ymddi, yn mynd i, yn ymddi'r gideniadau, yn gyflaen, a'n gyflaen o wneud ymddangos ymddangos, mewn cyflaen, a'r ymddi'r cymdechrau. Dyna'r adegad â'r ysgolau cyfeiri Cymru o'r tynnu amser yn y cyflaen yma. Felly, mae'n gofynu'r SNP yn ymddi'r cyfeiri cyfan, Felly, ydych yn gweithio wneud y bydd y bwysig yn gyfathir oedd y gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio. Felly, yn gyfathir 3,000 o'r gweithio drwy'r cyffredinol yn y rhan o'r cymhwyr yma, yn gweithio'r gweithio hefyd 30 o 20 oed. Felly gweithio hefyd, yma, wedi bod yn y gwneud y brifysg hwnnw fel ychydig o'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio. As you can see Bun pushing higher breaking that trend that's been in play for the last couple of days. Gold as well back now above 1500, training at 1500 08 and t-notes as well back above its pivot and high of the day. So very much last night was a was a case of you know stocks were pushing higher all was seemed well. However this morning just coming under a bit of pressure and you just see the dax here of course opening 12 minutes ago already filling that gap so Felly, yn termos o'r cyfnod o'r diwethaf, mae'n defnyddio'n gweithio'r cyfnod o'r gweithio'n gweithio'r Sefydliadol. Cyflawn i'r meddwl yma, ond mae'n gweithio'n mynd i'r Uneddaeth Cymru, nad oedd wedi bod yn rheswm yn ôl ar y cwmbrân o'r blaenau yma. Yn y gallwn gweithio, mae'r man Donald wedi cymdeithasio'n gofyn gyda gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio. sy'n gyfnod oherwydd mae'n fÙl fawr i gael. Mae'r fawr i gael yn dweud o'i sayu cyfnodau o'r hynny o'r Chino Llew Cyswg Gydag, ac yw hyfforddiant yn mynd i gael lefnidyndol i'r Chino Llew Cyswg Gydag i'r 70th anfer grandpa o Chino. Nid yw'r cyflosredd yn gyfathio ar gyfoeddio dywed y ddarparu honny o dda i $250 miliwn o ddechrau gan 25-30% ar gyflosredd yn golygol cyflaenwyr y 15 oed. Siw'n cyfrifol o'r hollu ond yma o'r hollu'r cyfrifol, ond yn gweld eu chynwys i'r hollu o'r hollw i'n mynd yn y prif, a gydwyd y cysyllt, yn ôl, yn ei hynny, yn gydweithio'r hollw i'r cyfrifol, ac mae'n gwybod yma yn ei hwnnw. Mae'r hollw yma, ac mae'n gweithio'r hollw i'r hollw sydd yma. Yn gwelch a principiau sydd yn gael daethau rhyw ffordd beth oes yn ymwylo ein bwrdd a gael ein cyffredinol, you can really see, since we broke above that 2945 area It's just been a case of waiting before we hit that 3000, which we did, of course in late trade last night. At its highest this morning we were only that 0.32% away from all time highs, Fel gwiriau nid Ynodll Cymru, bod yn gyntief ni wedi gwelio y gallwn gwiriau a bod y traed gall wedi'i cael eu coflud. Felly, yn cael eu gwiriau sy'n hyn sydd wedi cael ei hyn sy'n gwiriau. Fe wnaeth yma i wneud o'r traeil a gweithio'r gorau sydd yn anod yng nghyrchu'n ni'n credu. Fel yw'r traed cael ei wneud o gael fyosition rydych chi'n gwiriau. And I was actually on the way into the office this morning looking on Twitter and people weren't buying it to be honest. I saw a few tweets saying I'm gonna sell to night, I'm gonna sell tomorrow. And maybe overnight wouldn't have been the best trade possible but you can see now we are starting to just unwind a touch here. Also last night and we are just seeing the dollar weaken a bit following this increase in volume, you can see the Euro will come onto the E.C.B later, ac mae'n ystod ddechrau'n gwlad o'ch gwaith i gael ei hun yn yma'n gweithio i gael gael gweithio. Rydym wedi gweld i ddau'r Donald Trump i ddechrau'r Fed, onid i gael yn gweld angen. Ond yn cymdeithasol yma, y Fed yn ymddangos ar hyn o'r intres ar gael o'r ddisgol o'r gael o'r le. Dyna'n ddyn nhw'n ddim yn ysgrifoedd, sy'n dda i'r intres ar gael o'r gael. Dyma'n gweithio'r gwirioneddol o'r rhan o'r term, mae'n gweithio'r hanffredigol a'r balanc. The USA should always be paying the lowest rate. No inflation. We'll come on to that later. We do have inflation coming out. It is the only naive yet, I guess that's how you say it, of Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve that doesn't allow us to do what other countries are already doing. A once-in-the-lifetime opportunity that we are missing because of phone hits. It's not surprising, of course, the dollar initially on these tweets didn't really weaken too much, to be honest, but we are seeing a bit of weakness ahead of the ECB coming up. Of course, with the ECB now expected to lower rates, Donald Trump wants a bit of that action, and the Fed to take what further cuts into consideration next week. Of course, today as well, not just about ECB. I'm just going to switch over to the calendar here before we go over that stuff. We've got at 1.30, so the time when the press conference is starting, so any euro-dollar traders, certainly one just to be aware of, just as Draghi does start reading out the statement, at 1.30 we've also got the inflation numbers out of the US as well. So those figures, both expected for the core and the straight inflation at 2.3, having a look at this for the core number just going back, here we've got five years, you can see it's just been solid. It's been solid above that 2% or on 2%, really going back to the beginning of 2018. Going pretty well there, the expected figure to be another increase from the previous month, so up to 2.3, and then not far away from the 10th of August last year, where we had 2.4, which has been the highest for quite some time. Last month coming in 2.2, beating expectations, this month expected 2.3, and certainly along with that press conference just something to be aware of. Over the last couple of days we've had, obviously Trump's start to pick up or ease on the trade talks. We've had the easing of Iran's sanctions or the thought that they're going to do that. We've also had yesterday OPEC cutting 2020 oil demand at the same time. Oil just coming under a bit of pressure yesterday, obviously had the DOEs as well. Again, you can see this trend line helped push this move lower. This must have been lept on from yesterday, making the initial test just before the DOEs. Then we break through and I was actually delivering a lecture at 1.32 o'clock and we saw these sort of comments come through that were just reported there by Reuters. We have really since then, where we're now trading at 56, but started to perhaps just top out. We do have as well today the JMMC meeting. Again, oil traders, I'm sure you'll be keeping a close watch on that. Over the last, well, few weeks or so, I think it's a six week high we made on Tuesday up towards that key level from the beginning of or end of August, I should say, so not necessarily a six week high, a couple of week high, up at nearly $59. We're not getting too carried away here. I think these sanctions, Trump trying to get oil price down again, anywhere near 60 it seems he wants to come out and start talking down price and OPEC cutting 2020 oil demand as well, just adding more weight to this move to the downside. Certainly intraday I think for now I would be preferring to look for places to get short. I actually do like quite the look of the, I guess it falls quite nicely on the pivot today. You've got previous support from the night resistance on the day before, well, the Friday before, so that coming in around 56.50 for me remains quite a key area that I'd be focusing on, your line in the sand almost if you want. Any real push higher, I'm not going to say that is today, but just keeping a close watch on this trend nine retest as well, which, you know, if it was to happen anytime soon, we'd be coming in around that R1 and those previous lows as well. So oil traders couple of levels to be aware of that just after the 2020 cut. Moving over to the ECB. So today all about the 1245 interest rate decision and then the 130 press conference. Draggy's penultimate meeting, I've put together a couple of, let me just drag this into picture here, a couple of scenarios to keep it simple. Obviously we'll go through this ahead of 1245 and then the press conference. If we have a look at the bigger picture just to begin with, you can see the euro every time we try to recover over the last few weeks and really mumps. We are then met with some dollar strength. Trump has tried to weaken the dollar through his comments. It has had no such luck and the euro has come under significant pressure each time. Yesterday we had a technical break, no more than that, really pushing us to the low breaking through support levels. Reaching the bottom of that initial pennant as well. And we actually just come back to retest that now. So worth again keeping an eye on wherever you'd want to get really too stuck in. Before the announcement I'm not too sure. But anyway I've put together here some scenarios. The base case at the moment is between 10 and 20 basis point cut. I mean my personal view is that we're going to get that 10 rather than the 20. So the fact that we are in between just off the idea that maybe they come out and say 10 and everything else is as expected. I think we all get a bit of euro strength from that. Obviously no cut is very unlikely and we get above 111 on the spike if that was to come through. A 20 basis point cut I think initially we break those lows and we look back down towards that low of the year depending on what else has been said. So of course 1245 we're going to get those announcements and you could have a scenario where they do a 20 basis point cut and then a no QE package and then it conflicts off that. But just if everything was to remain equal this is the scenario that I would be looking at. So if I was to hear 10 I would be preferring to be looking for a bit of euro strength. Just on the basis that we're in the middle probably about 15 is the sort of estimate if you like. QE package so again it seems that we're pretty much bang on priced in for 30 billion a month for 12 months. So therefore if they were to delay it then we're going to see some euro strength come in. So similar to the idea that if they were not to cut and the delay where we get that high very quickly and really we're probably looking at I'd say 112 over the coming days as well off that. So therefore 30 billion 12 months pretty much exactly where we would be trading maybe an initial one wind or some ultra dovish bets are pretty much remaining where we are. Any more than that 40 to 60 billion you're going to see a move lower of a very dovish reaction there more QE than expected and also the idea that there's no time limit on it I think would be quite a dovish reaction if they weren't going to put a limit on how long this QE package was going to last like I said the 12 months is the consensus this would also be seen as relatively dovish. A couple more to go through here you've got the best dovish scenario this is where you break that low of the year 20 basis point cut 30 or more than 30 billion QE package no time limit on duration we get the low of the year quicker than you can say Bob's your uncle. To the upside best hawkish reaction and this is again that above 112 eventually I would say is a no cut and delayed QE announcement. My personal view of what I expect will happen let me just clear the text. I think he will initially disappoint the touch I think we're going to get the 10 and the 30. I think we get close towards that R1 and those those highs for some dovish comments downgrade to grow press conference and then we drift back lower and then I would say over the coming days maybe before the fed meeting I think we get a retest of that low of the year. Of course you've got the other factor of that inflation number to take into consideration. I just think we'll have initial hawkish reaction before it turns dovish would be my view. Having a look over as well what's what's made them come to this this moment where they're looking to cut rates. We can see here obviously via trading economics is having a look at their their recent data points that they're going off. What we've got here that the GDP is has been struggling so we're looking potentially for a downgrade on this hasn't been above one for well. Here we're looking I mean here since 2010 which is pretty crazy for that GDP growth last one coming in at 0.2 not looking very good there. You've got the inflation number nowhere near there 2% or just a bit below target last time we were there was 12 months ago and then finally enough I mean beginning of the year 12 months ago. We were thinking this time is actually when there's going to be a rate increase a rate hike and now obviously we're in the situation where we've been pushing lower. Inflation is low will we see any downgrades on that it's expected so again if not hawkish reaction would take place. Also the manufacturing numbers just bringing this into picture obviously the other two are more important but we're in that contraction phase and it's not looking too good. Again at low has not seen really since again we're looking at 2012 as well so not not too good. However you've got some positives the unemployment rate in Europe is now almost back down to those 2008 lows so it has been improving to the downside here quite nicely. But overall the picture and everything I would take into consideration we're going to look for the cut growth isn't great. But to be honest like most central banks you know at their last meeting where they were more on a wait and see approach you then had the Fed that have cut the RBA have cut as well so following suit you could argue that. Just going to bring in here I think you should be able to see this if not I'll put it in the chat later. But it's also on IMG's Twitter feed and if you don't follow them I would absolutely recommend that you do the fantastic head of central bank meetings. Just putting together their base case scenario crib sheet and you can see they're actually going for a 20 basis point cut which is absolutely fine. They believe it's going to be perhaps a bit more dubbish than is expected so their base case they're looking for the 20 basis point cut looking for the 30 billion over that 12 months and it's a good way of just looking at what part of the market is going to be thinking here. We've also got to think about the inflation outlook and growth outlook as they will move the market so the current stance over the medium term underlying inflation is expected to increase. However we're now looking that recent data suggests the CPI pick up will take longer so comments on that worth listening out for and you've got the very dubbish and very hawkish reactions also listed there. Growth outlook current stance the risks to growth outlook remain tilted to the downside and we're now looking recent data suggest slow down inactivity which you've seen from recent data points. It's looking like it's going to take a bit longer before we see any kind of recovery as well. I've just seen some comments actually come through China Commerce Ministry Chinese firms have begun to inquire about prices for US farm goods. This again was was something that's going off ECB topic. This was talked about last night as well and just talking about these these meetings taking place so nothing new off those comments really. But yeah worth having a look at this this sheet from from ING really helpful and just putting together some scenarios and being best placed to almost not necessarily predict but have your outcomes. This was to happen where the price could go and of course not just the euro you've got to be doing it for European equities and bonds as well which will put you in good stead going forward as well. Going to be certainly is coming into it's a bit of a touchy subject this this QE. You've got certainly the recent times the the German the Dutch the Austrian and even the Estonian central banks very against the QE package. However you know and comments certainly from from Twitter and previous meetings Draghi has earned his reputation for getting his own way. So I think that's you know it there's not going to be too much in the way of you know a surprise. I would say so yeah it's going to be a good meeting I think certainly over the last couple of years if you just think back to each ECB meeting. How many times you think this is boring and you know Draghi's done such a good job at literally getting price to finish the day exactly where it started. I don't think today is going to be one of those days. I think it will will see a decent move actually in markets having a look over the calendar for the day we just transition that. So going through this morning we actually do have some some numbers out of Europe industrial production at 10. Very very very unlikely we're going to move one because of the ECB to because it's July numbers as well. So almost disregard that as an opportunity I would say. And then of course lunch quieter period that's when I would you know recommend having a look at these scenarios in a bit more detail. 1245 the announcement 130 the press conference and also 130 you've got those inflation numbers out of the states and lower tier initial jobless claims which obviously less focus is going to be on. Got the meeting as well which is tentative I'll confirm times when I see that and of course speakers just confirming that 130 of Draghi. A quick look over the charts technically now we've obviously done that the euro and oil S&P just be keeping an eye on on on on the DAX to maybe lead the morning session. You've got some interesting points 3000 you would expect now to be an area of support the the high that we broke through retested yesterday 29 21 another key level. And of course we're not far away from that all time high and we spent quite a lot of time over those few days around the 25th to 30th of July as a resistant point. So 30 28 around there really worth keeping a close watch on Brexit headlines relatively limited to be pleased to hear for now. I still like the look of 124 for a medium term short haven't really threatened there enough just the 50 ticks away. We are starting to get squeezed in you could argue from from both directions here and and finding a floor around 123 17. So that's something I would would keep an eye on a decent move perhaps if we were to break below there. Obviously just be careful about trading this market overall to technically with the headline risk that could occur. But you do have a nice trend line over the last three trading sessions that if we were to break and 123 50 a decent move could could occur. And then maybe I get that on 24 that I would want to see come in test hold before looking to get a move lower. Safe haven is just pausing a bit the decks just recovering. Obviously going into the session I would recommend sitting on the hands ahead of the ECB. But I'll get that ING sheet in the chat and any questions as usual please do let us know will be on the mic throughout the day and of course ahead of the announcement at 1245. But if I don't speak to you hope you'll have a great trading day.