 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network It's not officially week one the NFL season until we get to talk about some player props We're gonna do exactly that for today by bringing on JJ Zachary snub late round calm and get his thoughts on his favorite player props across week one in the NFL This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by JJ Zachary's and check him out on Twitter at late round QB You can find him on the late round fantasy football podcast late round calm late round fantasy football JJ happy week one to you. Merry Christmas. Happy new year. How you doing today? I'm great. I'm great I'm excited that a football is here. I'm excited to do this show be here each week talking some player props with you It should be a good time. We get to keep you in the mix and like honestly I'm jazzed about that honestly for you. It's probably nice to like get a break like season long is awesome Yeah, you know my thoughts and season long however season long is great for a lot of people But it's probably nice to get a break from that too at the end of the week to kind of talk about something different for once Yeah, no, I agree. I agree. I love season long. That's my passion. That's my my baby if you will but You know doing player props is fun. I'm already doing projections. I'm already looking at this stuff all week So it's fun to peruse the books and see see what's going on out there so we're talking about those projections we're gonna talk to you about your process for betting player props and Something like for this week, too But I want to give a quick reminder all of our stuff for NFL week one is already posted We talked to Ryan Williams about his favorite bets across week one breaking down the biggest games of this week I talked about a couple one more bet I'm adding for this week as well within that show that is up here on the covering the spread podcast feed along with Our college football week two betting if preview with Ed Feng and also with Drew Martin You can find both those here on the covering the spread podcast feed and up on the fandal YouTube page as well with college football The NFL now both here. It's time to get in on the action early this football season to help get you started new Fandals sportsbook customers can place a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 whether it spreads money lines or props like we'll talk about today odds for that and more are available on the Fandals sportsbook app. Just sign up place your first bet and Fandals will give you $1,000 up to $1,000 back in free bets if you don't win There's no better place to get ready for the football season than on Fandals America's number one sportsbook The official sports betting partner the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states first online a real money wager only refund Issued is not withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after a seat Restricted applies see terms that sportsbook.fandals.com gambling problem call 1800 gambler or was a fandals comm slash RG in Arizona 1800 next step protects next step to 533 4 2 in Connecticut 1888 789 777 777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Louisiana 1877 770 stop in New York 1877 8 hope and wire text hoping why in Tennessee call the red line at 188 997 8 9 in Wyoming 180 5 2 2 4700 or in West Virginia 1800 gambler net now JJ We had to hear you here on the show earlier on the sauce and you were talking about Season-long projections and season-long player props and that's a very involved process We went through that but in season is different. So when you're projecting or predicting output for a single game How does that process differ for you versus a season-long projection? Yeah, I mean, honestly, it's really just taking the season-long projection process Which is a top top down sort of approach where I'm looking at team level stuff before dividing things up at the player level It's doing that on just a single-game basis and you're able to be a lot more exact whenever you do that because You know things change a lot from before week one through the end of the year as opposed to you know It is week once we can focus strictly on this match up and on this thing So, you know, we for instance, we project plays run By by a team or I do each season I project that the number of plays that a team might run just based on their pace and based on Coordinator tendencies, etc. Whenever you're doing that within a singular game you can be more accurate because You know, you can see the opponent that they're facing you can see the potential game script that they might see And so the same the same goes for something like pass rate, right? Like if the game script is projected to go a certain way based on point spread Etc, then all of a sudden you can say oh, this seems gonna be throwing more this seems gonna be throwing less Then they typically do just based on how game script might end up unfolding And so just generally speaking with it with a singular game You can just be more exact based on evidence that you've compiled You know from from previous weeks, but you know week one's a little bit different because we don't have those previous weeks But as the season goes on you can just become more accurate with those individual weeks of singular weeks And the other thing too when you're talking about player Projections across an entire season, you know, there are players obviously entering the year like a Chris Godwin or something Who's injured who's banged up later in the season and from a season long projection You're sort of factoring in okay He might be out X amount of games to start the year or he might not be a hundred percent to start the year But later on in the season he could be a hundred percent and take on that 20 to 23 percent Target share in that offense whereas in that individual game, you know like week one here We don't know the status of Godwin totally right now But you know, let's say Godwin doesn't play or if we know that he's gonna be on the limited snaps Then all of a sudden you can bump a guy up like Russell gauge We're in that individual week gauge is gonna look a lot better than what he might look like throughout the entirety of the season So I really think that it comes down to the fact that you should be more accurate when you're projecting these singular games So it sounds like it's almost easier to do Single-game projections versus full year. Is that correct? Yeah, it's easier There's a lot of work that you have to go, you know, painstaking things that you don't really want to do all the time But yeah, I mean like it it's definitely easier because you're sort of working within a confined space as opposed to Right trying to factor in all these different things that could hypothetically happen across the entire season It's also easier too because you did the groundwork earlier on this year So you can kind of more easily translate that stuff and push it into a single game now in an ideal world We would go through every single game check out every single market and try to find bad lines spots as the sports books miss but like Most people listening probably don't have time if we're being realistic to go through all that So you kind of got to pick and choose. Okay. I want to look for this spot this spot, etc etc What are you looking for when you're trying to seek out different props you may want to bet in a week? I'd say there's three high-level things to probably focus on the first one is injuries Injuries, you know, they have a domino effect. I mean, it's not necessarily like basketball per se You know, I'm not an MBA guy But I know that you know when a player is out then like minutes get shifted etc And it's a really big deal there But you know at the running back position It's a huge deal when there's an injury because there's only one running back on the field at once And so if the back generally speaking and so if a backup running back is all of a sudden seeing a lot more work Then all of a sudden, you know, he's gonna have a way different outlook in terms of projection But you know, even a wide receiver when when a top wide receiver is out All of his target here doesn't go to just one other wide receiver But it does sprinkle around that offense and if the wide receiver is good He can earn that target share and maybe see a spiked week in terms of target share in that week So definitely pay attention to injuries. I mean, there's there's times where books aren't always ahead of the game When it comes to these guys who are questionable on the injury report And you know, there are times where you know guys are also getting, you know Like the the reports come out a lot later in the week Of how hard or how harsh an injury is And if you're ahead of the game there, then you can find an edge With props that way the other thing too is to always bet on regression. This is the number two thing You know, if there's a player who's a clear regression candidate You should look into him like let's say that his yards per target throughout the season has been absurdly high And then his line is then clearly based off of his previous performances Then you know that you can say bet bet the under if his yards per target was really higher vice versa Even so you can look at a lot of expected Yard formulas expected touchdown formulas and stuff like that to sort of see Where a player should regress to how many touchdowns he should have scored based on where he's seeing His looks on a football field and all that kind of stuff. So regression. It's undefeated Don't think that you can beat regression. You cannot beat regression. It will win in the end I mean, there's going to be times on this show throughout the season when we're talking about this stuff Where I'm going to say this guy's going to regress and then he won't I mean, it's just it's bound to happen But you will win out more often than not whenever you bet on regression and then you know The last thing is something we already talked about a little bit pay attention to game script pay attention to the way a game might go and Understand the roles of players based on that game script. There's a lot of two down backs out there You know, there's talk right now for instance with Damian Pierce You know, he's getting a lot of love out of Houston and I love Damian Pierce as a player I think he's gonna be really fun to watch and I'm hoping and crossing my fingers for My fandoms sake and also for my fantasy team sake that he's a three down back I mean, it would be great, but I think that we also right now, you know pre week one We have to be open-minded to the fact that they might throw Rex Burkett on the field And if they throw Rex Burkett on the field then all of us in negative game scripts run as a third down back or hurry up Running back for them then all of a sudden Pierce is not going to be on the field in negative game scripts On a team that's not supposed to be very good And so that could really limit Pierce's upside in terms of volume And what he might be able to do on the ground The other hope though obviously is that that that that team that offense just wants to run the football and run the football and run The football regardless of score But you know, it's just it's understanding player roles and how that all sort of comes together When it comes to game script because it can that can also go a really really long way Why need Texan supposed eight and a half? So hopefully we get that paired to help me but also to help your your best ball rosters with Damian Pierce from earlier on this All season so you talked about some situations that may be conducive to Finding inefficient lines when you're looking at this week. Are there any situations that stand out to you as being Ones that may be conducive to undervalued overvalued prop bets They may not be up yet because a lot of times books will wait before posting lines If things are super in flux, but any situations you're keying in on for week one Where you think we may find some good lines? Yeah, I think that we're going to see a lot of situations where and we're already seeing it like in the season long world in general But there's a lot of guys who got hurt at the end of last year who are trending upward right now You know, whether it's jk dobbins, whether it's chris godwin I mean michael gall is probably not going to be active But you know, michael gall is another player where eventually we'll run into this Where they might be active on game day And if they're active on game day people might project them to see a typical workload because they're active You know chris godwin's no longer in this knee brace and people are excited about that But that's something to watch because there's usually a build-up and a ramp up for these guys who are coming off these like major major injuries So, uh, you know, the ravens backfields won right now depending on the book There's not a lot of great lines out there aside from touchdown scorers Uh, you know with the ravens so you can't get like yardage props and stuff But you know, there was a quote from lemar jackson just yesterday saying that uh, hopefully He said that hopefully jk dobbins will be back in a couple of weeks So, you know, everyone's sitting there like crossing their fingers that dobbins would be able to get some work this weekend or do something this weekend Um, and so, you know, lemar comes out and says that there's been just a lot up in the air about that injury So just pay attention to if those guys are active if they're not active then obviously it's pretty obvious You know, it's it's pretty clear which direction to go in. Um, which direction the books and the lines will go in um, you know with their backups and such but definitely pay attention to that another guy who's, uh Trending downward who i'm a little bit intrigued by because we could see a negative game script there Haven't really put anything down or thought uh to do so, but I do think it could be intriguing is diante johnson Uh yesterday came out that uh, he might not be able to play this week The the the feeling around that was just really really pessimistic and negative. Um, and if he's out I mean, that's a that's a really solid 25 target share that's going to go to other players in that offense Um, and so i'm i'm going to definitely monitor that as well We talked a lot about having multiple books for you know for the reasons of price shopping but I think that in this situation it also matters in terms of Finding a place that'll actually post a prop ahead of time because you know, fando may not have a lineup But there are some places that might so It's always important to have multiple books multiple accounts where you can potentially look around see if some Numbers are posted for some certain guys here We might just get different lines or like different markets up and you can take advantage of those spots Even if your typical book may not have them up for these specific situations. All right Let's actually get into some concrete recommendations here jj starting out with some yardage props for week number one Where are you seeing value right now? Uh in the yardage prop category So I was looking over on fando sportsbook davis mills right now His his over under yardage prop is 217 and a half passing yards and I like the over on that Uh, yeah, it's minus 115. I believe right now. Um, I haven't met about 20 yards more than that Um, and I think that there's a chance that he could go even higher than that the texans Uh, like I said earlier, I do think that they want to be run heavy But they're big underdogs this week that could force the pass He's he hit that mark last season in 60 of his games where he had 25 or more pass attempts I think he's probably gonna hit one thing's pretty safe bet unless he gets hurt That he's gonna hit 25 or more pass attempts, uh, and the texans won two of those games So they weren't even in like hugely negative game scripts, uh, you know in those contests, which we again We could see in this one. So I think davis mills is a pretty good bet There's some injuries too on the cold side that that could come to fruition and help this But I do think these are pretty good bet, uh to to be over that 217 yard mark Okay, uh, so we got uh davis mills there any other yardage prop standing out to you for this week Yeah, there's one other one that I that I liked over on draft kings I like the over uh for antonio gibson at 58 and a half rushing yards Which is crazy because I've not been into antonio gibson throughout the off season Someone who I was fading and season long and then obviously the brian robinson situation happens And so antonio gibson is the lone early down back on this roster Um, you know, there are literally zero alternatives in that offense on early downs outside of antonio gibson He should see a really high rush share. He was top five in rush share last year per game Uh, so so he's getting the ball, uh, you know without these alternatives there without brian robinson there I would expect him to see at least 15 carries in this game And it's not often that you will see washington more than likely as a favorite, uh, you know this season So there could be a nice games for him at least a neutral one So I think antonio gibson, uh can go over that 58 mark I think I have him at about 72 or 73 rushing yards right now Yeah, the primary concern for him is losing work to jade mckissick But that's far less of a concern if you're looking at strictly the rushing if you're looking at like a rushing plus receiving Market, which is my preferred market There you're gonna have some serious concern the gibson, but for my pure rushing perspective. It's a very different story We've also got touchdown props and you know when we've had you on the show back in the past Uh, these have been the spots where you've kind of shined so no pressure jj But we're seeing a touchdown prop value this week Yeah, I got three of them for you. Uh, the first one is that situation I talked about earlier with jk dobbins I think that if jk dobbins were officially ruled out mike avis's anytime touchdown prop would be Not as juicy right now right now. It's plus 150 I think it would just change because you're in an environment where they're facing the jets They should be able to run on the jets. They should see a positive game script against the jets And and we know they're a run heavy team. I think davis is in store for 15 plus touches in this game Uh, you know, they signed kenyon drake last week He might not be ready to just fully be immersed in this offense and situated in this offense I don't think jk dobbins is gonna even if he's active and all things gonna carry the ball that much I don't think he needs to um, and so we're in a situation where he's probably gonna be the lead early down back He'll be the goal. I'm back. He's a bigger dude. He can play that role So I like mike davis anytime touchdown at plus 150 I'm gonna go back to that texans colt's game Matt ryan right now has an over under of one and a half touchdowns And I like the over at plus 102 uh for ryan hitting over one and a half passing touchdowns They have a 27 point implied total I think a lot of times people look again, this is like this goes back to the game script thing I talk about this in fantasy football all the time too Yeah, you want shootouts ideally for your quarterback and fantasy and just in general for any of these props You want shootouts to happen But the one thing to keep in mind is that in order for a positive game script to hit for the colts Matt ryan the quarterback whoever's under center for any team that has This type of game script and game environment and point spread the quarterback's gonna have something to do with that So they have a 27 point implied total we see fluctuations all the time with how teams score touchdowns Yes, jonathan taylor's a great bet to score a touchdown. I'm not saying he's not but if they do hit 27 points Uh, you know, you're looking at three to four touchdowns I think matt ryan could easily hit two in a game against pro football focuses last ranked secondary Entering the season. So I really like matt ryan there. Uh, and then the last one's more of a long shot It's more of a fun one, uh, but I like josh palmer at plus 340 for an anytime touchdown You're sitting in a game with that has shootout potential between the raiders and chargers Uh, the chargers last year ran 11 personnel at a 64 rate, which is three percentage points higher than the league average So it's a three wide receiver set josh palmer last year wasn't really that guy yet until till the end of the season He's that guy. I mean, it's gonna be keen now and mike williams josh palmer I think they're gonna run a lot of 11 personnel He has better odds like way better odds and even a jerald ever it right now So I think that josh palmer in a in a high scoring matchup where I don't think anyone would be shocked Justin herbert walks away with four touchdown passes in that game. I think josh palmer is a really intriguing bet at plus 340 Yeah, I was looking at my uh projected passing efficiency numbers this week The chargers are projected to be the most efficient offense Of any offense in the league this week. Yeah, so that's a good thing for sure and palmer We know kind of has like that body that could be a threat towards the red zone I want to go back to the matt ryan one when he said matt ryan and touchdowns I was hoping we were getting a matt ryan rushing touchdown Like recommendation that's got to be pretty long. I'll look it up like I was I was hoping you were gonna like start things off with a bang and go with the matt ryan anytime touchdown number Maybe maybe sometime jg we can you know coax that out of you but matt ryan. I'm still scrolling 12 to 1 that's not long enough I need to be like a 30 to 1 for matt ryan Yep So maybe down the line we'll get some matt ryan rushing thoughts here on this show But uh, I do like those so again mike davis anytime touchdown plus 150 matt ryan over one and a half passing touchdowns Unfortunately, not rushing uh plus 102 in the josh palmer anytime touchdown as well That is jj zacker recent checking out on twitter at late round qb Make sure you check out the late round fantasy football podcast wherever you get your podcast You can find all of jj's work at late round com jj. I hope week one has been kind to you I hope that the weekend is also good to you for your for your teams and for your bets And i'm looking forward to having you on throughout this entire year talking prop bets with you every friday Yeah, I appreciate it man Absolutely again check out jj at late round qb and find his work We have a link to his work in the show notes over on number fire dot com And that's all we got for this entire week here on covering the spread week number one of the books again Check out our full week betting preview with ryan williams and our college football week two betting preview All right here in the covering the spread podcast feed find that hit subscribe To get these right as they go live and also check them out over on the fan dual youtube page I am on twitter at jim sonnis. Thank you all for tuning in good luck to you in week one Enjoy the football. Good luck with your bets. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network