 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network This could be our final chance to talk actual NBA and NHL games for a very long time because a couple of Elimination games coming up on Monday and Tuesday First that he trying to stave off elimination against the Nuggets and then the Panthers trying to do the same against the Vegas Golden Knights We're gonna break down both those game fives today with Austin Swain getting his read on those series and letting us know whether we can Expect more basketball and hockey to come this is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Numberfire.com my name is Jim Saunders I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire joined here as mentioned by Austin Swain Check him out on Twitter at a Swain 3 find his work over at numberfire.com and Austin Kind of don't want to say goodbye to the NHL and NBA as of yet So how we doing how we feeling are you okay without this is going or where we at mentally right now? I well, you know, you and I discussed when I when I first came on here that I was gonna be Rooting for the heat kind of in the shadows because I'm in Denver here. So like, you know, they're my East team So I was quietly it's gone just about as expected on that front I I'm a little surprised that the hockey series has been so lopsided thus far But you know the stranger things have definitely happened. We've seen 3-1 leads blown a lot in recent years So let's let's see if either of these teams can make a little bit of history themselves Hypothetically not the wording for this hypothetically if Denver does clinch tonight Are you going out in the streets gonna go get your party on with the good people at Denver? Absolutely not. I know that it will be crazy though. I know that I will probably hear things outside I've seen nuggets jerseys flooded around town that I haven't seen quite literally ever and that makes sense with them in The finals for the first time and they've played phenomenal. So Congrats to everybody in my hometown that's listening even though they think I'm a hater I want you to be out there enjoying it because like they don't know you're a heat there like you for the heat like they Don't know that. Yeah, they don't know your tweets like, you know, just hang out. Have some fun Go hang out. Have a good time Like I when I lived in Boston never was gonna root for the Red Sox But like, you know, they are the the the Patriots and they want to Super Bowl all we were there I didn't quite get to the the parade and I do regret that so I'd consider it at least give it some consideration if things Do break against the heat for sure We're talking about that game first and we'll talk about panthers versus golden nights all coming up here in just one second But first as a reminder, make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We're here every weekday breaking down all sorts of different sports And there is plenty to come across the summer even when NBA and NHL wrapped up tomorrow U.s. Open preview via Brandon can do a little talk about that tomorrow Right here on the show to get that and all of our shows as they go live Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and also check us out over on the Fandall YouTube page If you like what you hear leave us a thumbs up on YouTube or a five star rating over on Apple podcast or Spotify It is almost time to crown an NBA champion and Fandall wants you to be part of the excitement because right now new customers Can get a no sweat first bet up to two thousand five hundred dollars That is two thousand five hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win There's no better place to bet all the finals action than America's number one sportsbook Fandall Official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first online a real money wager Only ten dollar deposit required a refund issued is not with trouble bonus bets that expire in 14 days We're strict and apply see full terms at fan duel calm sports book Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fan duel calm slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step protects next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit CC PG dot org slash chat in Indiana 1809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Maryland and the gambling help at org in New York 1 8 7 7 8 Hope and wire techs open Y and in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Let's kick things off here with the heat at the Nuggets. We've seen some tightening of this spread overnight It was Nuggets mine is nine and is now down two eight and a half in Fandall sports book total here is 209 and a half an Austin the Nuggets of a chance clinch tonight and I want to know from you We've seen this spread tight in a half so I'm not gonna ask you about the heat money line because you know we could potentially get into that but Have you seen enough in the Nuggets to consider laying the points here in a large spread or do you see this game as being a bit tighter than that? I think you have to Because a lot of these sharp handicaps of this series have been exactly correct about what we can expect from my And by the way, it would be the most I the hideous my 2023 Miami heat thing in the world to win this game When everybody's coming them out This is a buzz saw heading into Denver in game five with their first franchise title on the line And they've justified the odds the entire time But what I think we're seeing in real time is we are seeing the regression the drop-off of why everyone kind of counted Miami out is that they are just having trouble getting high quality shots Against a more athletic team with better players that proved it in the regular season Miami in the series as a 46.2 effective field goal rate That is the that is really poor shooting can happen There have been shooting slumps that have plagued other teams in these playoffs But the problem is in these last two games in Miami. They've actually shot 52.9 percent from three-point range Downtown so they're actually shooting well on open shots. They're just not getting a lot of them They're actually outpacing Denver a little bit There aren't a ton of open shots to be had on either side But the problem is that they have so few shop makers compared to Denver you think about Jamal Murray I guess Bruce Brown is hitting step back threes now It's really just a difference in what I've talked about the entire postseason run Why I like the Celtics last series why I like the Knicks before that series is like Gabe Vincent Caleb Martin They had a 75 effective field goal rate for like 20 games to get here You'd be lucky to see that in five games from those players given their samples in the regular season And it's just an unbelievable run that defied the odds to get to this point But I think they've they've dropped off quite a bit haven't really made yokich have any problems in any of the four games thus far So I think you have to absolutely consider laying the points in this spot Would you do you think eight and a half is a fair number or is it more so just a consideration for you? I would I would I might lean right now that I'm writing up in my bedding guide over on number fire today is to lay the spread On on Denver's points here just because of what you've seen the mismatch on the offensive glass the massive gap in shooting It doesn't really seem poised to turn around when a lot of the open shots have now gone in for the heat games Two through four they just aren't getting very many Denver's defense has been significantly improved and you know Maybe a lack of focus changes that in game five because you are a 3-1. We're talking about celebrating in Denver tonight Right, but but I really do like what I'm seeing from the nuggets in this spot So the total year is two and a half that has gone up a point from where it was last night Any thoughts for you on the total in this game? So right now based on the pace we've seen from these two teams thus far The pace has been incredibly slow and that's why the under is actually cashed in three of the four games The only exception was that historic Miami fourth quarter in game two to actually win it right? Pacing has been well on pace even for an under here. I've got Denver currently projected for a hundred and seven point two points Miami 98 point two so that's kind of right on this nine point spread Yeah, but that's only 205 point four total points and the this number has been dropping the whole time at the public side That's been getting a lot of the action has been the overs You'd expect people like to root for points instead of for misses. That's just kind of organic and baked into these big games So I'm not quite jumping off this the table to bet this number, but I do show value on it Miami shooting isn't a super huge concern if they were missing a bunch of open threes and it was this tight I'd be very concerned, but the shot quality just hasn't been very good I imagine the pace we might get our slowest pace as the stakes heighten here in game five So I do like the under in this game, too. Okay, that number is 209 and a half right now The under is minus 110 at Vandalsports, but any player props in out to you Austin across this game or not as much there So I am gonna go to the guy that everyone knows tonight's game is hinging on that is contagious called well Poe seven and a half points. I I love to kind of dabble in these lower player prop markets That's where I think the the value can reside Definitely what I was looking forward to see from KCP if I was gonna bet is over in this game was his minutes returning in game For they did he was kind of a victim of that huge Christian Brown game in game three Where he kind of got benched late, but he back up to 36 minutes in game four and most role players tend to shoot More shots at home and they tend to shoot better at home and it's no different for KCP He's got a 13.2% usage rate at home compared to a lemon and a half percent away from home Actually, I think he's due to hit a few shots in this series 57.2 Effective field goal rate in the playoffs. That's right in line with his regular season mark It's only 42.9% in this series So he's been missing quite a bit game one did a lot of that damage for him Denver can he just hit you in so many different ways that they've been so dominant with one of their starters one of their Snipers not really doing anything. I think we could see the KCP game tonight There's a reason they'll probably be the NBA champions when this is all said and done Yeah, can take this call a poll popa his number right now seven and a half points over his minus one away And it sounds like based on the way you discussed all these You like the KCP player prop more than you like either the under or the Nuggets minus eight and a half. Is that correct? Yes, I absolutely do. I think I have this weird strange feeling that this might hit in the first quarter Just because it you know when you get a guy that shoots from outside We saw with Max Drewson game to he could hit three three point is in the first quarter and catch it But that's that's me boldly calling my shot I don't know if you could dig into sportsbook and find a spot where you get three first quarter threes for whatever you might find But although there's first quarter points. So First field goal attempt. Yeah, we got first quarter points here. Let's just look at there's no KCP market Wow, wow There's shook they knew the sharp money from Austin Swain was coming in a KCP and they didn't want the smoke I get it. I respect it. I'm mad All right So the bets Austin likes for game five here between the Nuggets and the heat Nuggets minus eight and a half the under two Oh, nine and a half and minus 110 and KCP over seven at points minus 108 Potentially maybe doing so pretty early in this game. Maybe you want to check out a KCP first bucket three point or something like that Yeah, this is not an endorsement. Just saying, you know, if you want to ask the fun out there as well Let's talk now about the NHL game five here between the Panthers and the Vegas Golden Knights This one also a potential elimination game with the Knights on the verge of a Stanley Cup And we've seen a lot of movements in the Golden Knights Favor here because their money line was minus 160 last night. It is now out to minus 178 So some money coming in here on the Vegas money line the total this game five and a half minus 130 on the over And Austin it kind of seems like This series has been closer than than the Nuggets and heat series has but you know, it's still three one Panthers were able to avoid a sweep. Thanks. They're winning game three, but it's a tough spot still so What's your handicap of game five given what we've seen so far? So yeah, absolutely and the thing to keep in mind when betting these two against each other Statistically as far as winning and against an equal team on your home floor The NBA's home court advantage is the largest to fall for pro sports and HLs is the lowest So that Panthers aren't going into quite the buzz saw but the Miami heat are from the same same town there in South Florida But it actually has been a lot tighter 65.4% of the goals are in Vegas is favor on the box score It's actually just 52.8% of expected goals So Jim your sentiment is correct that it feels like it's been a lot closer and we talked about goal tending when myself and both Tom Vecchio previewed this series. We like the under series goals Unfortunately, the carriage has turned back into a pumpkin for my guy Sergei Bobrovski He said negative 2.3 8 goals saved above expectation in this series and look he was hot And then they got like 10 days off. So I kind of get that I thought he was gonna find his rhythm in game Three did not end up working into game four But Aiden Hill on the other side plus 2.8 3 8 goals saved above expectation for Vegas a little weird those numbers match But definitely Aiden Hills outplayed him to this point I think that's a large reason of why Vegas is ahead the way they are But with that the case the path to projecting Florida to win this game is pretty simple You know Vegas is spread is clearly getting crushed the money lines getting crushed by betters alike given the movement We've seen on this I'm showing value with Florida's money line when projecting roughly neutral goal tending because I don't just go off what we saw in the series I take the larger playoff sample series samples large and Bobrovski was far and away the best school tender in the playoffs thus far And I I don't want to write him off from coming back to that form So I've got Florida closer to minus 105 in this spot. So the the juice that you get with Florida's money line is really attractive I'm also expecting 4.61 expected goals. So with neutral goal tending that would look like an under as well Okay, so the Panthers money line is plus 146 Austin is on that Under five and a half is plus 106 preference for you between those two bets Austin I I like Florida's money line man The thing that's giving me trepidation is that we've seen this stark movement in the way And you do not want to fade that overly often as I'm sure you talked about at length on this podcast But I really like I really like Florida's chances to rebound just because of the form Bobrovski is held I'd be very surprised We talked to a little bit about the shooting with the heat I'd be very surprised if Bobrovski is so far away from his playoff norm as we get deeper into this series And I definitely like the Panthers of these two teams to go into game five and get a win on the road Yeah, it's never fun to bet against the market because the market tends to be very efficient But it is worth noting that there is a big gap between plus 130 and plus 146 So the implied odds of plus 130 43.5 percent the implied odds of plus 146 are 40 point seven percent So down like two and a half percentage points and that can make a massive difference So the market could be Correct and saying the Panthers were overvalued when it was plus 130 But then it could also be wrong and saying that they were undervalued or overvalued at plus 146 because that is a swing So I think that what I would view from this market is I'd want to Check it out and monitor it and if it stays stagnant at plus 146 for a bit longer that indicates to me It's moved out of a point where it's people are gonna be betting on Vegas They've reached the point at the tipping point where they're no longer seen value there And maybe we'll see some buyback on the Panthers So if it stays plus 146 for a while, then I'd be okay with betting against the market because that's the market time Okay, we got to we've gotten what we need here We've we've bled Vegas dry in terms of the money line there and there's no longer value So I would say try to just read the market and if it stays stagnant then it's the market telling you We've sucked this one dry feel free to take to buyback if you want Yeah, and I and I'd also add I was on as we talked about on the show I was on Florida before the series a based on the way that I was calculating this I was on Florida in game one Game three and then game four again So like I've only gotten one of those games right the series isn't trending in the correct direction sometimes you have to stop digging your own hole and I There just might be something different at play whether Babrowski has settled back into his regular season norm Aiden Hill is well above his still at this point Those are the types of factors that if you try to do this with an analytical model and you're wrong Don't keep digging would be my advice in those situations unless there are Indications that regression could be in store and your panthers Maybe there are with the the the way the series has been pretty tight So I think it's always a balance for sure. What about player props anything you like in that regard for game five So I saw a number that yesterday that caught my eye because it was such a wide price And then I realized why it's not popular and why it might be trending the other way I like Jack Eichel over three and a half shots on goal here premier player for Vegas His shot volume has slowed down a bit in the Stanley Cup finals And I think actually a lot of it has to do with the lopsided results We've seen so thus far. He's played less than 15 minutes or around that mark in three of the four games But it's just because he hasn't been needed. He's one of their better players top six forward He they're just resting him up because the game's already been decided He is averaging point one seven shots per minute in the playoffs thus far So about 22 minutes on average in this series in the competitive games Producing three and a half three point five seven in that estimated time So I'm actually projecting this around even money that he'd hit the number of three and a half And it's sitting here at plus 142 and might one of my favorite things is when I see a pace like that And then I see somebody because a common prop methodology is he's hit this in six of his last seven games Or he's hit this in his last five games I go hasn't hit this in six straight yet the line sits here still at three and a half So I really like that when I see his pace when I forecast Florida to be more competitive in this game A Florida win would actually correlate very well to this Eichel number because the game is more likely Competitive than if we see another Vegas route So I do like Eichel over three and a half shots on goal in this one And they're not Uncorrelated in the sense that if it's a shot and goal that doesn't imply that it's necessarily a goal You do worry that if Eichel is getting more shots that implies there's more possession in favor of Vegas That's the one way in which they may not mesh as well But again plus 142 is definitely not a bad number So Eichel over three and a half shots plus 142 Austin also does like the Panthers money line at plus 146 and the under five and a half at Plus 106 all available right now over at fangirl sportsbook again Austin Hopefully this is not our final time talking NBA and NHL for this season But if it is it has been a delight having you on as always enjoy game five. I hope you Maybe let's say game seven. I want you to go out there whether it be celebrating Happiness or celebrating a heat win. I want you out in the streets after game seven because I want three more games I'm trying to manifest this that you get out there But either way appreciate the time as always and have fun tonight. Yeah you too Jim Thank you. We'll see what we've got in store. I will say I'm not counting out this heat team I've made that mistake too much plenty of people have and it's hasn't worked out yet So we'll see if they can claw their back once again again. Thank you. Awesome. We'll talk to you later That is Austin Swain check him out on Twitter a swing three find his work over at number of fire dot com We'll still get awesome the show talks in UFC throughout the summer as well So we can't fully let him off the hook as of yet even with NBA and NHL potentially wrapping up for the year Before we close up shopper today here on the show do got to go back to last week and recap the recommendations the weekly Recommendations from here on the show. Let's start things off with the Belmont steaks We had Christina black or a fan dual TV You can find her on Twitter at Christina FDTV on to preview the Belmont steaks and Christina came close to getting her second consecutive win She liked tap it tries to win the Belmont at three to one and tap a trice finish third our Candelot got the win Forte finished third there. So Couldn't quite get that one, but it was close also a close one for Christina in in race eight at Belmont on Saturday She like drew his goal eight to one just go finish second So came close to the long number couldn't quite get their fun call by Christina there And then in race 11 like Ottoman fleet to win they finished third So a lot of close calls for Christina a lot of podiums. We're talking F1 and NASCAR But good calls by Christina and fun to have Christina on the show here throughout the triple crown season Again, make sure you check her out on Twitter at Christina FDV FDTV check out all the good work over at fan dual TV as they have a lot of good horse racing coverage Still to come across the rest of this summer our guest on the golf side of things to preview the RBC Canadian Open was Brandon Gendula check them out on Twitter at Gendula 13 Nick Taylor got the win 72-foot putt in a playoff to win it awesome to see a Canadian win that event Brandon and I were tilting Nick Taylor because we had both used him in DFS and our head-to-head against each other and Looks like he was gonna miss the cut on Thursday and then rallied back to actually win the whole freaking thing And a fun scene there with Adam Hatton getting destroyed by security Really fun day in golf on sunday Brandon's outrides for the Canadian Open were Tiro Hatton at 11 to one side of the gala at 30 to one Hatton came close. He was one of like 16 guys in the hunt all day saturday sunday He finished one stroke back and third really good sunday to finish off for hatton did make it close couldn't quite get there The gala finished 38 uh non-outrides ralch smally and then griffin top 10 smally was plus 250 griffin plus 290 griffin miss the cut smally Did give it a run on sunday. He finished with a 67 But he finished one stroke out of the top 20 So tough beat there But we got the usa open which will break down tomorrow here on the show and try to rally back there Austin cast was our guest on to preview the ucl final between man city and inter Milan And of course man city won one no austin. I can find him on twitter at austin cast He liked a couple different bets where he thought the intro would keep this game closed but maybe have a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time or Potentially a close win for man city did get the close win for man city um He liked a tie one to one at eight to one again after 90 minutes plus plus stoppage time And man city to win two to one plus 700 and inter did give it a run late. They Were almost able to tie things up couldn't quite get one across so No win there, but really competitive game inter. I think did win the expected goals differential in that game Doesn't really matter as far as banners go But does mean that austin probably had a good read on that match Regardless the two prop bets were there Were letaro martinez to score assisted plus 240 and then nicola berea to score assisted plus 430 inter didn't score so no hit on either of those but I think the overall read on the the way the match broke down was good by austin there again Check him out on twitter at austin cast for nascar I felt Simultaneously close but also so far to hitting a big one on sunday I had michael mcdowell to win 40 to 1 at sinoma and he was fast in practice He qualified third so mcdowell went from 40 to 1 to 14 to 1 really good movement there and He was good in the race, uh, but lost a few spots on the start of the race started third He was seventh or so right away Did claw his way back up and was running third before a late caution, but then They made a pit stop and his pit crew made a mistake Uh, they dropped the lug nut and he went from third going in to 13th coming out He did rally to finish seventh So I had recommended the top 10 bet at plus 155 that one did cash But I thought he might have a shot for a win martin tricks jr. Definitely had the better car like even when you're comparing them Their lap times when they're both an equal in in clean air truex was still about like 3 tenths faster So it wasn't close in that regard but like from a positional perspective I thought he had a shot So, you know, the hope would have been if mcdowell didn't have that bad pit stop He'd be up there for a late race restart Maybe can get a leg up on truex get some distance So did hit the mcdowell top 10 but not quite there on the 40 to 1 outright despite the good closing line value Other top 10s were austin dillon 650 or plus 650 zane smith plus 800 Dylan shortened to four uh plus 400 before the weekend and qualified 11th So Fandall did not reopen top 10 odds after qualified But if they had he probably would have been pretty good uh from plus 650 But he spun during the race he got loose and tie gibbs hit him It was not tie gibbs fall to his dillon's fault, but We did see dillon claw back into the teens But couldn't quite get the top 10 so no cash there and smith Not really competitive all most of the forwards were not other than chris busher and michael mcdowell, so Couldn't quite get that one other outright was on daniel suarez. He had an issue Basically the first lap so couldn't win the 16 to 1 there and didn't really get super close on that one so annoying to get good movement on 40 to 1 bets it felt pretty live annoying to get good what would have a good movement on austin dillon You know annoying week overall glad we got there at the all top 10 at least to get that but Annoying week We have an off-week and nascar this week and then on to national after that, but uh formula one in montreal So we'll talk about that on the show later on this week That's all we got here for today on this show though I want to give a big thank you once again to austin swain for swinging by find him on twitter So in three find his work over at numberfire.com. I am on twitter at jim sonnis g i m S a n n e s do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcasts also check us out over on the fan dual youtube page If you like what you hear leave us a thumbs up on youtube or a five star rating an apple podcast over on spotify Hopefully we get some more basketball and more hockey to talk about tomorrow We are back to talk about the u.s. Open with brandy gondola. Have fun tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network