 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network Interesting week for bedding across the NFL because we've got a boatload of low totals due to wind Due to good defenses due to a litany of reasons. We've got some intriguing spots Gardner Minshew starting here for the Eagles We've got a lot of weird stuffs in the Brock pretty magic and continue We got Lawrence versus Wilson on Thursday night. It's a pretty fun slate We're gonna break down this slate with Austin swam of number fire getting his read on the this week's biggest games in the Say it bets for week 16 at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Austin Swain check him out on Twitter at a swing three can find his work over at number fire calm doing USC and top on top of like 16 other different sports Austin. I appreciate the time. How you doing today? I I'm doing very well, Jim This is a very interesting NFL slate I didn't like the board last week and I paid the price for it We given that I didn't have a lot go my way, but I really like the way this board sets up We got a lot of big dogs and and it's a definitely a good-looking week outside of the weather of course The weather is not fun Unless you enjoy Low-scoring games, which I don't for the most part, but I think that they'll be interesting and It's a it's just a week of extremes You've just got massive extremes across the board and we've got Question marks a quarterback for Tennessee Baltimore, etc. etc. So I'm glad you feel good about this week because I am I am to be determined. I think it's the way I'd feel about this week really I think the uglier the better. So that's typically what I'm looking at. That's why I'm here, man You know, we gotta gotta fill that quota. We're gonna break down Austin and hopefully get his read on this week's slate here and just a bit But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We talked some men's college basketball John Rothstein earlier on today to get his read on early season takeaways across men's college basketball Talked about which teams he thinks are clustered near the top to be the top team the nation talked about some futures markets And much more find that by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast hit Subscribe and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well looking to get more out of this NFL season Well, now is the perfect time to get Fandall America's number one sportsbook because now new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 That's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win just download the fandall sportsbook app It is safe secure and super easy to use And you can get everything from the money line to touchdown scores to over under yards plus fandall Even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay So don't miss your chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 and free bets when you join fandall Make every moment more with fandall an official sports betting partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus in select states first online real money wager only Refund issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see terms that sportsbook dot fandall dot com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandall dot com slash rg in arizona 100 next step or text next step to 53342 In connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1-800 9 with it in wyoming in kansas 1-800 5 2 2 4700 in kansas ks gambling health dot com in louisiana 1-877 770 stop in mariland md gambling health dot org in new york 1-877 8 hope and wire text open y or in west virginia go to 1 800 gambler Dot net now austin has mentioned This week is littered with awful weather The word dangerous has been used in several forecasts in cleveland, chicago seems fun Are you looking at bet those games thanks to increased uncertainty or Do you kind of make those those outlier games stayaways on your card? Well, jim, you know, you you know this well that that really the adverse conditions They more so affect passing games for offenses. They can lead to some more random numbers My answer I think would be not necessarily I think there are certain exceptions where I feel like a team could be undervalued relative to their weather conditions Good example taking it away from this week early this year cleveland scheduled to face buffalo in that snowstorm I really like the browns plus eight and a half points in that game before it got moved to detroit because They had the better running game. I thought they would be able to adapt to those conditions better than buffalo Of course, it got moved to a dome. So that was all moot. The line didn't move I stayed away from cleveland So I take that into account when i'm handicapping how these teams would move the ball And how that would work as far as their offensive styles and see if I can see value One way or another but ultimately I am trying to find value with positional grouping matchups And that can still exist even in a blizzard or a flood, you know, both teams have to play in it So it's something I really evaluate on a case-by-case basis. So you feel confident in your ability to properly Account for it. And I think that's kind of the rate. I'm getting correct I I think so I I I would say a large part of my process has to do with offensive and defensive line matchups And those guys they're the most stable positional groups in adverse weather So that that really doesn't change for me now if there is a team like miami Who's very explosive on the perimeter and all of a sudden the weather is going to be bad You know, I got a bad read on that buffalo game because the weather actually for most of it last week Wasn't as bad as was expected, you know earlier in the week We knew on saturday morning. It wasn't going to be too bad until the very end But you know, it is one of those things that you can kind of you can definitely with trying to guess it improperly But it's something that is really case-by-case for me. That's a it every single game is different It certainly is and it actually does start off the bad weather on thursday night We don't get to usually talk the thursday night game because we're typically recording thursday But hey, we're talking you're in a wednesday. So let's talk the headliner this week jags jets up in East rutherford new jersey the jets are now point and a half favorites That's intriguing because it was jags minus one and a half Moneyline had gone to minus 112 for jacksonville, but they're now even money. So Someone's on the jets here total is 36 and a half due to the rain and the wind in this game And I find this game fascinating on both sides because the jags are on a heater Everyone wants to dunk on zack wilson justifiably at times on twitter for sure But how you view in this game can the jags keep it up here keep their playoff hopes alive. What are you seeing? Whatever this number ends up at wherever it ends up because you're like you're saying it's been all over the board It's been kind of hovering around this one and a half spot on both sides I think no matter where it ends up it is a by-law spot here on the jets after that embarrassing loss against detroit left Back up tight end totally uncovered last week and then the jags like made that statement against dallas Who we believe is one of the best teams in the nfl? So To me last week the thing that I wanted to see Because I had tweeted about this earlier zack wilson when he was benched. He went through a stretch of really difficult defense It's got the patriots twice got some really tough Matchups that were at the time top 10 in number fires Nerd rankings as far as pass defense The lion's not as much and he was able to move the ball had over 300 yards passing That's what I wanted to see entering this matchup because jacksonville is a massive pass funnel They are number fires sixth worst Sixth best rush defense and third worst pass defense So they really lean toward the air and I think that's a good thing for how the jets are because They've been kind of searching for their running game with brice with brice hall out because zonovan knight's gotten some carries They've mixed in michael carter more in the backfield I really like the way this matchup sets up for the new york passing game with their perimeter weapons They have and then of course the defense jacks jet's defense top 10 against both the rush in the pass in number fires metrics Could be getting back quin and williams this week that is a huge boon for their defensive line And by the way cam robinson now out for the year for jacksonville's offensive line So that's a huge swing on the offensive line I think it's a by-law spot for the jets sell high spot on the jags and I do like the jets In this game as long as the number ends up short of three Has it moved too much? For you to like the jets still or do you think that there's still value there? I think there's still value I take this line up to two and a half Where where you get to three with jacksonville and with their offense that is frankly much more dynamic Is where you start to get concerned, but at this point, you know I don't know where this line is going to end up as far as when we get to kick off on thursday But I still would take the jets at this number anywhere up to two and a half would be good in my book So you were talking about the matches for wilson. I had the same note because um Entering last week. This has since changed because san francisco has moved up but entering last week Zach wilson's previous his final four starts to come against the teams ranked Second second third and fourth in my defensive power rankings And so you'd think that's like oh almost the toughest schedule and never faced the the toughest defense But toughest defense is the jets. We actually should not have faced them um So once a tough stretch, uh, he was Up and down, but I thought that like at least the ups were higher than they usually are Yeah, the coaching staff seemed to show a bit more faith in him at least in the first half They did pedal back on him in the second half after that pick justifiably. Um, but I thought it was interesting too. I thought that people may have Fixated on the interception a bit too much There were some okay things in there like at least he was willing to chuck it The confidence seemed a bit higher, which was good. So I didn't think it was all negative For wilson in that game. He faced an extreme amount of blitzes as well So that's he should yeah, you should blitz blitz the hell out of him. I would be the exact same thing Right the jets offensive line is part of that struggle as well We saw mike white got popped a ton a couple of weeks ago as well That's that's a for sure problem But jacksonville doesn't get as much pressure as you'd think with josh alan dravon walker top overall pick on the outside Their pressure rates more mid-pack. So um that to me that's another plus for a struggling jets offensive line in this one Yeah, we you talked about uh, you see like the jets minus one and a half My numbers have uh one model has the jags minus 1.85 other ones the jets minus three So i'm gonna stay away. I'm just gonna watch this game. I'm gonna enjoy it I'm gonna let it ride not worry about it. I'm gonna enjoy some football Hopefully the rain chills out and I can just enjoy it and not bet it and enjoy So we're for the jets for you, but I'm not taking any part of let's move now to the commanders at the 49ers Where the 49ers are seven and a half point favorites despite the fact this total is down to 37 and a half and I get it man. Brock purdy's looking good. Um, he's Uh been playing well so far hasn't been pushed too much even with no debo this past week He played really well now facing a very tough defense. So Can the 49ers cover a big number here? So I I love the commanders in this spot And I think the biggest thing is that the clock is up on the 49ers And I don't mean that they're super wool clock or anything like that because of course They're going to be relevant down the stretch They've now covered five straight weeks and in my estimation that means that betting nfl spreads is a little bit like betting stocks You are getting peak you're buying the 49ers right now at peak value when it comes to the betting consumer You think of the bangles is another team that have covered plenty this year You don't necessarily get the best teams that have the best value on them and now here we're laying seven and a half points It is at home. Brock purdy has been excellent 0.24 passing net expected points in number fires model By the way, funny enough of all people with over 75 attempts tied exactly with jimmy garoppolo. That's kind of ironic And you know, that's so funny I look at washington They're going to force san francisco to play with their opposite hand They may win and they may cover doing so but washington is number fires Number one rushing defense and I think they are the strongest rushing defense in the nfl This the strategy with purdy has been give christian mccaffrey the ball because he's very good at football They've given him 73 touches In the last three weeks with purdy playing most of the action Now I don't know if mccaffrey is going to be quite as effective Obviously he can still make strides But I think they will force purdy to do more off schedule to be a little bit further behind the chains on second And third down so I like the value i'm getting with washington in this spot The number is key as well with seven and a half and there's a little bit of a prosjoe split here on the under 40% Or so of bets on on the on the under 79% of the money And that means those seven and a half points with washington They're intrinsically more valuable if we're expecting a lower game total than what is posted so far Yeah, I'm confused why that total has come down so much like 37 and a half is a very low number I know that the defenses are amazing And I think that's a big part of why it's down there, but like it feels so low Yeah, I I think it feels low as well And this is one of the spots that's not as badly impacted by weather is some of the free mile power wins. Yeah, right It's it's and so I think it's interesting that the total has come down there I would lean on the under here as well But my favorite bet is the spread Given that I get the touchdown hook and you look at the difference in motivation here Washington has a huge hill uphill climb now to get into the playoffs after losing to the giants San Francisco already broke out the t-shirts. They're pretty much locked into a 2-3 matchup With kirk cousins, whether it's in minneapolis or in san francisco So, um, I think that's another edge when i'm handicapping this game that I look at as well Yeah, it's an interesting spot here. I think that the The tough part I have like like this is like a blind spot for me Like I can't justify betting taylor heinecky against his defense. Um, like that's that's tough, man. Um I think I'm sometimes a bit too harsh on heinecky Uh, because you like he's frisky a little bit, but like just it's tough It's really difficult like I was I had the giants money line for both those games and pushed on one one the other But like I never felt like afraid at betting against him and I feel I'm doing it here again Because I like the 49ers, but I don't know. It's uh, maybe I'm too low on him. I'm not sure Hey, I you know the thing is is that I feel like I'm not getting heinecky as a plus I usually see him as a net negative anyway And yes, I I can definitely see this going off the rails against the 49ers defense Which by the way has recovered to top five in offensive net expected points allowed since they got healthy They went through that low think of the chargers game when their personnel wasn't healthy, but now they're back. They're healthy Um, I just I like the way washington's running the ball. They out gained new york significantly last week Um, you know, there there are a lot of underlying metrics like yards per play that point to washington I actually should have comfortably won that game last week But had the key red zone turnovers had the stack stack stripped by cave on tibetos So um from from a per from a moving the ball between the 20s perspective I think washington's a bit undervalued even though yeah He takes a lot of chances and he could go sideways quick against nick bosa and the fellas I was very grateful. They did not come through Very grateful for that personally. Let's move now to the eagles at the cowboys Fascinating game here fascinating market here as well because the spread is down to four and a half It was six. I thought it might get to six and a half But it's now four and a half total is up to 47 and a half. So not just a total move Spread movement in favor of the eagles, but also the total is going to have a point and a half So I find this fascinating. Uh, we're probably gonna see Gardner minch you in this game with no jail and hurts. So What are your expectations for the eagles here and can they cover four and a half? I think they absolutely can and it really this what makes this so interesting Is doesn't it feel like we're kind of trying to place a line value on jail and hurts to gardener minch you What does that gap look like it ballooned up to six in some spots yesterday? And now it's come back down to four and a half on fandals sportsbook Um, I I would expect it to be all over the cowboys in this spot as a short home favorite Given that the eagles have been blowing teams out and are at peak value there But then now with minch you it's a different story now I think one game of gardener minch you is a different story than having gardener minch you as you're starting quarterback going into a season For instance, he's actually shown to be very good last year 0.3 passing net expected points for drop back this year very limited action 0.53 passing net expected points for drop back for context There are patrick mahomes 0.32 for the season So minch who's been excellent in very limited duty But I think limited duty is all you'd want to keep him to and the key matchup that is so fascinating And why I think I'd like to see eagles cowboys again in the post season Dallas is 40 pressure rate best in the nfl philadelphia's pressure rate allowed 19 percent best in the nfl on that side Those two that's that matchup is incredibly fascinating to see who gets the best of it We saw cooper rush try to make a late rally in philadelphia Um, but I think the eagles here anything Greater than three and a half points is showing a lot of value give it getting that key hook and getting that number in this spot because I expect dallas to actually slow the pace in this one philadelphia has been a bit of a run funnel And we know dallas is willing to do that Um, I think the stars aligned perfectly here for this game to stay close to stay competitive And the total though is moving in a very interesting direction. If you notice jim Well, hi Seems a little high for me. Uh, yeah, I've got a 45.3 Personally on uh, but based on my model So I was a bit surprised by that the the movement towards Philly I thought made sense because uh, even accounting for minch you I've got The cowboys by 3.99 in one model and the cowboys by 5.7 another so You know, the other one is is higher on the cowboys than the current model But I think that six might have been a bit heavy so I could end up looking like an idiot here because I had a Size of bullish bet on the cowboys minus three when it was there and it seemed like there was something, you know Up with her at that point, but then I also took the eagles money line at plus 215 when it got there so The It's undoubtedly going to be cowboys by two or cowboys by one. I can guarantee it's going to wind up there Right, which is where we had this line before the Hertz injury came out And uh, that's kind of what I was expecting as a more close game I want to I'm very interested in to see how the betting activity breaks down throughout the weekend on this line I haven't fired on it yet Um, but I will as soon if I start to see movement toward philadelphia and losing that key number three and a half Because I just wonder is the public are they going to react more so to minch you starting for philadelphia? Or are they going to react more so toward well minch who's just as good as jaylon hurts? That's kind of the narrative that chris simms put out there, right? And if that it depends on which side the public takes on that will probably create the value in this game I think I I recommend i'm totally good with both of those tickets you have as far as value Yeah, I don't know I feel about it. I think I just like took what I thought was value in both situations. Um I will profit if one of them wins because of the scaling on them, which helps Um, but like i'm not sure I feel about it like I don't know if I made the right call there I just felt like both those wound up being values, but I don't know man. Um, I think I think six is a little heavy four and a half I think is more appropriate based on what my numbers are saying here Um, but it's a fascinating situation I would love to see like you said a rematch here because I want to see both teams that they're starting quarterbacks because the first one was cooper rush Which is not the same as dak prescott. I think dak is balling I know that there's like a narrative that dak's not playing well, but that's because noah browns dropping passes It's not sure he's made mistakes too. I want to make that clear, but like It's not his fault. Um for most of the stuff So I think it's a fascinating game and by the way, here's what's happened to the cowboys is they flirted with the texans loss and the jaguars They aren't getting home anymore. They have one sacks One sack each of the past two weeks that pressure rate I mentioned is great But if it ultimately doesn't impact the game and it doesn't prevent opposing quarterbacks from going up and down the field It's not that big of a deal. So I really want to see how dallas's defense responds. They definitely have the motivation here Um, they need this game if they're going to win the nfc. So otherwise they're pretty much locked into the five seed Yeah, that pressure even more Concerning when their secondary is as banged up as theirs is right now Like they've lost a lot of guys back there and if you can't get home with that You're gonna get shredded. So for sure. Uh, we'll see how that goes, but I think four and a half. I think it stays there, but it's been a wild market so far We'll see how that goes. Okay, awesome. Open up the board for you for week 16. Where else do you see value at vandal sportsbook? So this is this is absolutely kind of a pros versus joe's capital of the week And you have the detroit lions. They are red hot winners of six of seven Right. They are world beaters. They're on the way to the playoffs. Dan Campbell's getting coach of the year buzz Now they're heading to a carolina team that dropped a disappointing one against pittsburgh last week The line's only two and a half interestingly enough detroit is receiving overwhelmingly a majority of bets And a majority amount of the handle here on vandal sportsbook This is a very intriguing matchup to me because you remember what the panthers did two weeks ago They ran it all over seattle. They ran for 233 yards in that game Detroit is number five's third worst rushing defense and that's kind of where the jets couldn't really get things going against them last week I had the jets in that one Um, and obviously didn't end up working out in any of the excruciating ways it did But you look at sam darnold. He's actually playing decent 0.16 passing net expected points for drop backs and retaking the starting role And carolina, they're a top half rushing offense in that same stretch and keep in mind They faced the tj watt skewers. They faced the broncos. It hasn't been a bunch of cupcakes like you'd expect in the nfc south and Um, I think the panthers they need this game to stay in the playoff push Obviously detroit does as well, but they've got the home crowd detroit isn't a crowd that like pittsburgh that will travel That sounded like a pittsburgh home game last week in charlotte um I can't I almost can't even get past the fact that this was the one and six lions and the two and five panthers They've just fired matt rule and we are now this is a playoff must win winner go home game I like the team getting points here. I think the panthers win outright in cool detroit down just a little bit Yeah, it's I keep forgetting that the panthers can make the playoffs Um, because it they shouldn't be able to they've got 22 odds at 5 38 right now So like it's not even that they can it's like they have a good shot at it um I I do like the the lines in this game personally, um the passing offense being as efficient as it is and That does translate to To the games they played on the road if you have a monrosse brown healthy So it could be because my son jared is playing quarterback for the lions in this game. Um, my darling boy But I think I do like the lions here. Um You know, I've not gotten any movement on that it stayed It's been minus two and a half minus 115 ever since I talked about yesterday So it has not moved at all in my favor which is annoying, but I am curious if that changed at all whether the wind has gone up a hair I believe in that game. It is currently at 11 miles per hour. I think it was nine yesterday So up a little bit. That's a little bit concerning too, but we'll see any other ones you like for this week So I I have one more and I want you to try to not projectile vomit onto the screen while I talk I'm talking about the Denver Broncos here and the Los Angeles Rams Which is not a game that I think a lot of people are looking forward to at this stage You make a Lodean game. Everyone's excited for it. That's true. We'll crown a new nvp in that one But you know injury news needs to develop a little bit I don't really know what's going on with erin donald and what the motivation is for la to bring him back And he makes a big difference for their rush defense, but here's what I can't get past Baker mayfield and his lead receiver van jefferson facing number fires top overall past defense It sounds like a disaster waiting to happen You the when he was moving the ball in the Raiders a couple weeks ago The Raiders are number fires worst overall past defense by a lot and that's a sizable difference And you know since cup went down five games ago Rams 9th worst in offensive nvp points per play 7th worst on defense as far as offensive nvp allowed per play I think they're the worst team in football at the moment and I you know I admit there's a bit of a mental block from that because they have the Super Bowl ring From last year to say that but they are just so Deficient on talent and we know Denver's defense is good and I'm not really concerned about motivation Given they came out they played hard and they beat the crowd out of arizona last week and you know Denver has the best unit in this game I think rossel wilson started to shake a couple of cobwebs off before the unfortunate hit in the Kansas city game So I think they can move the ball, especially if Aaron donald's not there I will watch this line carefully with the donald news and see how it's moving because it's actually moving towards denver's direction Now and the value might evaporate if it gets over that three three and a half marker But I like the broncos laying less than a field goal They'll probably have a pro denver crowd out there in los angeles as well Yeah, it's a it's it's a vomit game. You're right. Uh, definitely definitely a vomit game there for sure But I think that the broncos are the better team because like you said the defense if both offenses suck Which defense is better and the broncos defense with the current injuries where they're at? Honestly, they've been better the whole year, but um with where things currently stand. They're the better defense So I agree. Uh broncos probably the right side in that game with that one Yeah, not even ben scurronic left for uh, old baker just poor baker throwing to tutu atwell van jefferson, you know Rough life. Uh, they lost another offensive lineman. I think they're center brian allen's now too. So just a rough situation there They are trying to they are trying to pack it in man They're just trying to save bodies and pack it in and try to regroup for next year It's weird because they're still playing hard. Yeah So like kudos to shot McVay good for you man Like that's awesome like i'm glad they're doing that but like at some point talent matters And they don't have a whole lot of it right now. So You know good for them for fighting into week 16, but it's uh, you know just You need talent at some point It's not the court and Sutton might be back this week too, which would help uh for the broncos as well Well, that's what we got here for today. So awesome. I want to say thank you uh for swinging by breaking down your thoughts on NFL week number 16 Good luck to you and i'm looking forward to having you again on again soon Yeah, for sure Jim Merry Merry Christmas. Happy holidays to you and yours. Uh, we definitely hope you spend time with your family Merry Christmas to all the listeners as well. Uh, it's a great time of year We have a lot of football this weekend some college football bowl games too It should be a lot of fun And some of us will be snowed in the entire weekend correct works used to watch football Can't complain about that. Uh, check out awesome on twitter at aswayme3 I am on twitter at jimsonnis j i m s a n n e s as Austin said happy holidays everybody be safe Be healthy. Uh, have a great holidays and we'll talk to you once again next week Tuesday for NFL week 17 First look this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network