 The week 12 main slate is still pretty far down the road. We're gonna try to preview it for today breaking down game stacks. We like those We've got a pretty good read on where to break down injuries to monitor as we progress is because those will be Bit harder to get a full handle on and then top plays were targeting as of now over on Fandall for the week 12 main slate welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am for every preview show By Brandon gandulla check them out on twitter at gandulla 13 find his work at fandall research where he is a senior managing editor Brandon week 12 main slate It's always interesting because it's uh, it's got Thanksgiving in between there and you know people may not pay as much attention So I kind of like this slate personally Holistically might not like this specific slate. How you doing today? You like this slate holistically, but not this slate I like the slate after Thanksgiving A lot in general because it's a People are kind of checked out Little uh, little turkey hungover stuff like that. Um, I like it from that perspective. I just I'm having a hard time Loving a lot of plays on this slate as of now as of wednesday When's the last main slate we had where we're Like trying to narrow down the player pool as opposed to trying to widen it last week last week I liked last week I didn't and then before that was pretty good too. What do you mean? Come on? I don't know. I don't it doesn't it doesn't sound it doesn't sound from I am picky. I want to be picky Yeah, but I want to find guys whose roles I love those were actually good slates called down They were actually good slates. No, that's not how I remember they actually were this one is is tougher But that's not always a bad thing because again everyone has the exact same player pool So quit whining quit crying brandon Um, and I do think that there are fun games to stack and that to me is what I want for dfs I want games where I can expect a decent number of points back and forth the feral bull side They're pushing for all four quarters. We've got at least two games They'll give us that this week. We're to break down those games break down Key injuries to monitor throughout the week and get you ready for week 12 in dfs But first a reminder if you want to find our Thanksgiving slate breakdown That is already up on the fandal youtube page and fandal tv plus along with the number fire daily fantasy podcast He broke down all three games outlined Players we are targeting for all of those find that again in the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed The fandal tv plus app and the fandal youtube page will have Betting thoughts on college football week 13 in the flv 12 up later today with dr. Ed fang Tom becky is going to break down props. He likes for Thanksgiving That'll be up on the covering the spread podcast feed and fandal tv plus and I gave my initial thoughts on week 12 uh betting overall on covering the spread yesterday again available on the covering the spread podcast feed fandal youtube page and fandal tv plus Thanks divvying. Thanks divvying. Thanks. Thanks diving. It would have been I guess Thanksgiving day calls for food family I've read that in the wrong order. Wow. Okay. Again authentic read here authentic raw uncut the e-check fantasy podcast Thanksgiving day calls for family food and football and with three marquee madships in the nfl on thursday Fandals giving you the chance to win a share of one million dollars in prizes First place gets 200k for just a nine dollar entry fee All you have to do is put together your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap Then you use fandals last scoring future to follow along as you compete for the top prize with your choice of stars like Dak Prescott christian mccaffrey and iman ross st. Brown all set to take the field on Thursday there are plenty of big names to use in your line of turkey days coming quickly So head over to fandal and get your lineups in today eligibility restrictions apply go to fandal.com or download the fandal app for more details Uh for all of that also Bubbling my throat. My goodness. Um, we do have a free play up for this week It's always that's for the main slate not for Thanksgiving The main slate is the free play for this week go to fandal.com slash research to get the link for that again fandal.com slash research by the article with the link in there fandal.com slash research right on the home page Let's begin things off brand about talking about the slate over here for the week 12 main slate and to me it is Keeping tabs on injuries throughout the week because we're recording here on Wednesday and a lot of stuff will change between now and then that's a flaw, but like it's kind of what we had to work with and a lot of people are going to miss stuff and so I think that If you get late breaking news be reactive to it because people will probably be less reactive than they typically are Which gives you an edge. That's why I like this slate personally It makes it tougher to do our jobs as far as like recording stuff, but it makes it better from a dfs perspective So to me, that's the big thing is keeping closed tabs on news as things develop. What about for you? Yeah, there's gonna be a lot of uh, a decent amount I'll say of like if then kind of statements with how we approach the slate, but if i'm gonna say something different I think it's gonna be really trying to narrow down Who I actively want to play um In a main lineup whatever that sort of means to you like if it's your If it's your only single entry lineup or your head-to-head lineup or whatever it is I like to go through and find the plays I feel best with and put them in my lineup and figure out the rest from there uh I I guess we just remember it differently, but I feel like it's been hard to kind of um Really, you know plug in specific plays Uh I think it's hard this week. I think there are really only like four quarterbacks I'm considering and I don't think either of them or like any of them are particularly like perfect or flawless uh tight end there's like Two and a half names that we like one of them. There's one we feel really good about that's nice There's one we feel really good with and Trey McBride might be Like like where I start my lineups with which is kind of crazy But the other one's Travis Kelsey and you know his salary's up and we don't really have to like talk anyone into Kelsey, but You know, there's just there's a lack of certainty and we can take advantage of that But it also, you know, it's uneasy to talk about this stuff on wednesday whenever there's There are a lot of injuries that could kind of open things up or not. So That's where I am with the slate. I guess As usual, I'm just a little more pessimistic with how how and when we'll find that info and and you're Willing to sort of assume assume the best In some situations or assume that we'll get some certainty. So I think that's really the difference here between us Yeah, if I were looking for positives on the slate, it is the game stacks. We have games that I like to stack There are high totals type spreads love that as always and There are actually I would say for the first time this year legitimately solid value wide receivers Who can get some downfield targets get some upside and that's pretty rare for this year So it's still not like a slate. I adore but like it does have some positives for sure and again, everyone's dealing with the same player pool Yeah, I Again, some of those receivers are contingent on injury news. Um, so we might not get them But we've already gotten you what we used to the saints though. Sure, we do But maybe one thing we should just talk about at the very top right here the slate overview section Wide receiver flex. Yes or no this week. Yeah um Running back is the weakest position of the week. I would say I'd say tight end is tight ends worse No, because we have one good player one great play Very good play at tight end. There are no very good plays that running back. I don't think so one who Kyren Oh, yeah, coming off an injury multi week injury Quarterback kind of stinks, which they kept off. Anyway, um, like anyway, I you know, I think okay Yeah, either way running back is pretty weak So receiver of the flex very much in play for this week I will not be using receiver from the Bengals of the flex though as we dive into the injury section Joe burrow will miss the remainder of the year due to a wrist injury Which stinks never want to lose good quarterback play jake browning will take over as a starter beginning this week against stealers Jamar Chase's salary did come down, but it's 8100 dollars and Like I said in the recap podcast I'm going to treat him basically like Garrett Wilson going forward where gets a lot of targets and an inefficient offense And I would not use Garrett will snap that salary against stealers. So any Bengals for you in this matchup? Uh No, and what just what would you say to the idea that they'll lean on the run game more and therefore Joe mechs and we'll get a lot of work Um, he's been inefficient this year. He's gotten plenty of work and he has not paid off So I think we're on the same page there where Hard pass, but it's a good question on the other side stealers did fire matt canada as oc for this week Does that alter your view of any of the stealers against the Bengals here? Uh Look, I need quarterbacks, but I don't think there are any value quarterbacks So I'm not gonna like roll the dice on kenny pick it when we have like Three stud quarterbacks and maybe two to three more who can definitely put up ceiling games Uh The backfields of timeshare. I think jail and warren's really good, but that's not necessarily enough Yeah, and I don't see it with the the receivers to kind of want to get there I think that we have better options. So Across the board. I'm not particularly interested. Yeah, warren snap rate last week was still around 45 percent So I need that to come up. I know he's been very effective. He's been very fun But I need to come up before I get to him Kyron williams is slated to return for the rams this week They're clearly confident in his health because they released darryll henderson on tuesday Cooper cup listed as day to day with an ankle injury as well We'll talk about the rams in the trend section. Dawson knocks is eligible to come off IR this week for the bengal or for the bills In his absence dalton kinkade and cleo Shakir have both had really good roles We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section. Damian pierce has a shot to return this week after missing the past three games Got in a limited session on friday. It's why I think he'll probably be back this week They face the jag sunday We'll talk about the impact of that on devon singletary and the rest of that team in the bookmaker section Derek car is still in concussion protocol But has time to clear before sunday's game. So I think he'll still go but jenis winston would go if car cannot go They did place michael thomas and ir meaning Uh, you get a boost here for a sheet jahid and at parry. You'll talk about them in the trend section Desmond ridder has been reinstalled as the starter for the valkans. They face the saints I don't think there's a difference honestly between the two of them like sure They are different humans, but I don't care Any shift for you with it going back to ridder Uh, not particularly I would like to like the other side of this game because there are some saints that I have interest in um one you know one running back that Might need to talk about a little bit more as alvin chimera So we'll talk about them more when we talk about the saints, but I would like to be able to bring it back Because I like multiple receivers for the saints this week. I just don't Quite know who or how I I took a like I took a look at uh, kyle pits because again tight end is it it falls off pretty quickly And you can make the case that if kelsey doesn't have a great game that you could just play someone like kyle pits and Take seven points and be fine Uh, but what about bijon you it seems like it seems like you've been a little bit higher on bijon robinson Then i've been His salary is 7400 so it's very reasonable Uh, but any bijon for you is he game stacks only or not even really in game stacks because you don't want to stack this Falcon's offense. No, I think it's fine for game stacks. And I'll have a lot of shaheed or not a lot I'll have shaheed and I'll have a lave. So I would be down to bring it back I think the question is how I view him compared to Jonathan taylor at 75 de understated 72 or shot wide at 7 000 I think he's like in that nebulous tier with those guys we're like I don't know. I need to figure out how I want to rank that tier of players. I think they're all in play Uh, bijon had 22 carries and they're finally before the buy week um, based on the saints whose defense is Is good, but I think it's been a bit a bit inflated by the schedule they face so far So I do like bijon Um, it's I don't know i'm going back and forth I think that the red zone roles are with the guys around him like jt Like de andre swift who's gotten better recently and rushad white favor them But I I want to at least give him some long thought at 74. You were laughing. Why? It's just sad that we're rolling right past josh jacobs who has like a really good role. I don't care. Um, I know I really I if it burns me, it'll burn me if that's okay. I'm I'm open to that I've accepted my fate if that does happen. Darius laden. Oh, sorry any bijon for you? uh I'd have to build. I think more lineups than i'm going to build to get to robinson. I'd rather even if you have like shaheed or olave Yeah, because I don't think this is necessarily a game stack. I'd rather I'd rather play like we're shot white and Try to force something with Okay, fair enough. Hopefully josh jones is fine, but we'll talk about that too Darius laden hurt his arm against the commanders. He is questionable for this week Tell me to veto showed life last week why it's somewhat notable that slayton this hurts I'm not going to use any giants against the patriots. Are you? Uh No, good. Okay. We don't have any clarity on whether michael wilson will be able to play this week He sat for the cardinals week 11 after re-injuring his shoulder late in the week We'll talk about them and why that does matter in the trend section as well But first let's dig in now to our bookmaker section for this week and let's start things off with honestly a pretty fun game Between the eagles and the bills right now at fan will sports book eagles are three point favorites total in this game Is 48 and a half I bet the bills here when they were three and a half So clearly I think that this game would be very competitive pretty high total in my model despite the tight spread Which is tough to do honestly, so Not a lot of value to be had in this game Do you see yourself Forking over the necessary salary to stack this game or are you going to look to lower salary stacks elsewhere? I think that this game Where this game starts is the quarterbacks Because that also applies to the whole slate. Um, we've got three What we would consider like superstar quarterbacks on the slate with josh allen jalen herds and patrick mahomes Obviously two of them are going head to head and usually that means like an auto stack situation I think that there are paths to this game again I would not be surprised if this game scores a lot of points, but You know, I do the thing where I envision What the score looks like it's sort of the like halftime or end of the first quarter I could see this one also kind of being a little bit A little bit closer to the vest so that teams don't kind of Have turnovers, especially one side of the ball So I think that this game is really appealing Jalen herds for me is my favorite Quarterback of the week so that kind of tells you where I'm looking for The whole slate I want to get to jalen herds because I think that he has You know, just the rushing workload the the easy path to rushing touchdowns Is something that's really hard to account for when modeling something out or projecting it But he's also got two stack candidates for sure One of whom had a solid game, but his salary is you know reasonable when davante smith is 7400 and one Who has had Huge games, but it's coming off a really bad game and the salary is elevated So it's hard to stack herds with a j brown, but I think it's really appealing The lack of value is a little bit of a problem, but I do think that You can kind of many stack these other games with value Yeah to get to this game, and I think that that's something That's really really appealing so sounds like we're both high on this game, but what's your sort of Like primary path to getting here So I agree that herds is qb1 considering salary right now I think that he should be because of the rushing stuff Looked a bit healthier. I thought in that chief scheme too I know that they was like sacked like 37 times But like Was moving around a bit better had the most rush attempts he's had since he hurt his knee in that jets game So I thought that was encouraging overall despite the lack of passing efficiency I don't really expect that to be the case going forward with them I would say though that like if I open up roster a projection sunday morning and see that josh allen is Closer to like six percent whereas herds is 15 or so I could see myself pivoting to josh allen five rush attempts in that game against the jets despite the fact They were up big that entire game. I would not be shocked if Given how important these games are they lean more on the josh allen leg effect Because these are basically playoff games to the bills right now and we see quarterbacks run more in playoff games so I could see myself using josh allen as a pivot to Potentially get a supernova quarterback at a lower roster rate So allen is in consideration for me, which would also mean stiff on digs is now digs has been weird He's always perpetually weird The weirdest dude on the planet. I think but like Like Do we expect that to continue in four games that knocks digs has a 26 target share 24 deep 29 in the red zone. I don't think noxly back this week. Um, I haven't really heard a lot from him I don't know. I haven't heard a lot from him. Have you seen other reports? No, I just again i'm the pessimism for him to come back, but I haven't seen a lot And like digs would be the one guy who it wouldn't matter. It would matter more if it concave and Shakira Um Yeah, I think I think that it'd be okay. Um if for for digs And I don't think we'll see a lot of people go here given we've got a j brown in this exact game Um, we've got some other receivers who are pretty solid So I think that a digs allen stack for single entry would be very very fun If we get the read going in which I think we will that they'll be lower roster the other guys Have you had the vibes been weird enough for digs where you don't really want to do that or what's it read on him? So He's like a strange case always. Um Where his ceiling is Quite high But for some reason he feels Like some of these target totals are like absurd But you don't necessarily see he's got the 33 point game But other than that basically two games it We'll give him three at 19.6 or higher and like that's really good But there are also a lot of these down games. Yeah, and it kind of feels like it He just goes as josh allen goes So if you're high on allen, you might as well be high on digs It's not always the case because like allen had a good game last week A little bit of a different situation because the particular matchup with the jets for digs there, but yeah If you're gonna be in On allen, I think digs is is like again, you talked about the the roster rate for allen If you also pair him with digs, which is a little bit hard to do because of the salaries Your odds of having like a more unique lineup go up exponentially It's still hard to bring it back with value from the eagles But you can definitely do it with davante smith very logically. Uh, but I think also deandre swift deserves some attention His role has been quite good. He's got a lot of receiving work. He has Like we talk like we've been talking more and more about yardage upside Um in the past couple years He has that like he has breakaway ability And he has like his his receiving role has been really really secure Without dallas codder from like a target share standpoint. So There are ways to do it without Forcing in allen digs and a g brown sets appealing. Yeah gain or uh deandre swiss reds and rolls also got a lot better Ken of the gain well back in week eight lost a fumble against the commanders inside the red zone and I think you saw a pretty immediate shift where they stopped using him there In weeks three to seven. So that's where gain well was back But before the fumble swiss red zone snap rate per next gen stats was 49 percent It has been 79 percent in the three games since that red zone fumble for gain well so he still see what hurts like hurts is still going to get the The tush push touchdowns and that matters a lot but swiss red zone share which accounts for those hurts rush is is 45 So I think that switch is a very viable bring back options without breaking the bank. He mentioned, uh, divante smith I think he's also a great play this week. It's only $400. Um, he's had Usage bumps in a major way whenever dallas goddard has missed time since the start of last year A targets for 99 yards this past week I think it's a great spot to go back to a j brown if you can get there But also I don't mind if i'm going alan diggs taking the savings going with divante smith Is it worth it to jam in some lineups where you could where you go with Alan diggs brown Yes, can you realistically do it? I hope so man. Um, it depends on how how value breaks throughout the week, but I'd like to at least try to get it because it should be pretty unique. Let's talk about dalton concaid here Um, let's this because like if if dawson knocks is still out. We love concaid I'm not even gonna ask you that question Let's assume that knocks is back though Would that scare you off the concaid where you'd will down your tight end list to be just tray mc bride and travis kelsey That's I mean it's tough to go into the week with two tight ends One of whom you have to make sure you build a round to get to With kelsey at 83, but I do worry Uh, the the bills and this applies to stafan diggs even though his target share is always a team team high and he's He's the one guy you can quote unquote trust This team can and does and will and will always just spread the ball around um, depending Now concaid's been really really good Without knocks, but with knocks early on in the season like concaid was held back We're always trying to look for was concaid kind of overtaking knocks in the first place Wasn't really the case and that it's a little bit telling so I do have some fear But of course if i'm stacking this game He's an easy way to get access to it and therefore I'm going to be higher on him, especially because tight ends really really bad otherwise um I won't go quite so far as to call him game stacks only but I do have a really really hard time envisioning scenarios where I play Dalton concaid on purpose Overtrain McBride unless I literally only have 6000 and I don't have an extra hundred dollars to get to uh, McBride, so He's really he's really dependent. I think on the game stacks, but if he if if knocks is out Where does concaid stack up for you on the full tight end slate? Is he just at the bottom of tier one? Or is he as good as McBride for you? I think he's like I think they're identical honestly. Is that weird like This scheme's a better game to stack and like right concaid's target share without knocks is 25 percent Which is really good. McBride with with kyler is at 27 percent. So like I Can kates past three market shares in game 32.3 24 and 24.1 Percent so like it's been consists like sometimes you'll see a sort of up and down kind of but he's been consistent there So you like to see that? Yeah, so I would put him on par with those guys. Do you agree? Yeah, he'd be at that bottom he'd be at the bottom of the tier. I'd probably just lean McBride because it's a little safer um because you know this this team could just Throw the ball to other other players Yeah, that's what they do, but Cardinals don't really have that luxury No, uh, that's very true. Uh, but like if even if knocks does play I will still use concaid in josh out on lineups um double stacked with digs that because that's Again, just going full on this year where tie your tight ends to your quarterbacks or the opposing quarterback And that would fit with that any final thoughts for you on this game Uh, james cook Nope Okay, I don't like the red zone rule still the snap rate's pretty bad um Yeah, I mean His sour is good his yardage upside is good But like It's gonna be like old school devon singletary where like the yardage may be good But like really score to like juice that up. I probably don't think so. So what it seemed for you or no I I know what you mean. I'm a little bit higher on it, but not to the point. He's game stack dependent So he's not someone I'm going going out of my way to play Okay, let's talk about the other really fun game for this week That is the jaguars at the Texans battle for the afc south love it Right now total is 48 and a half that has gone up as weak has gone along It is now a one and a half point spread in favor of jacksonville Highest total on the slate very tight spread. This is an old school heat check game stack kind of set up here The jags offense found some life last week with zay jones being back out there Texans continue to produce efficiently. I know a lot of picks last week, but as cj stroud stroud said Steph curry don't stop shooting. So what's your view of this game relative to the slate? Yeah, it's that dion waders mentality rather be 0 for 30 than than 0 for 10 because that means you lost confidence if you're Over 10. I think those are the numbers, but yeah, um I also like this little 10 was the lower one for dion waders He's a jay. I can't remember what what the number was. I think you're right. It was around point stands. Um This is like a 1.75 qb game for me I still have question marks around trevor lorenzen is his upside I know the fantasy points were there last week, but he ran for two scores and wasn't necessarily because of like A concentrated rushing effort. It was still just five carries in 17 yards Um, I want to like lorence more. I know you always like lorence A bit more than I do and so um, I he's he's more than a half qb consideration But he's not quite full Like a full consideration for me and again A lot of the week if if I don't have Conviction in a lot of plays Then it comes down to game stacks and therefore I have to look at quarterbacks very very closely And I would love to get lorence in the player pool right now. I think it's kind of four quarterbacks that I feel good with Um, the two we just mentioned with josh allen And jaylon hurts cj stroud and patrick mahomes as sort of a It's kind of weird to call my differentiation play, but we'll talk about him throughout the show a little bit So I'd love to get lorence there. I just don't quite think he's in the tier and I I would have a hard time playing lorence over stroud Unless i'm sort of Stacking this game and then creating the same lineup and then just swapping out the qb's and hopes that that lorence sort of Outpaces stroud. So where are you with lorence and how does that impact your view of the jaguars offense? We'll start there. I'm high on lorence. The rushing point is fair But I would say let's say you take away every point you scored from rushing last week That's still 20 fandal points with even taking away the yardage. That's still 20 fandal points Um, which is not bad given he's he had only two passing touchdowns And like the passing touchdown numbers for him have been suppressed all year So I feel like he's probably due for some positive regression in terms of passing touchdowns And they could come here because the texans ranked 24th against the pass based on number fire schedule adjustment metrics and They're eighth against the rush. So it's kind of a Sure, the rushing could come back to him From where it was last week and should come back. So you don't expect two touchdowns ever unless the june hurts, but Um, the passing touchdown numbers should regress eventually as well He's playing indoors, which he has done. I believe once this year twice Week one against indy and then uh against that saint the saints game where he added that bad knee injury and still ran 59 yards So I think the knee is healthier now We saw the upside last week against another pretty poor pass defense. This game should be competitive It's a traditional like heat check game stack. I think that makes laurence pretty attractive Your point of I don't know if I could put them above strout is fair. Um, like I I love strouts I can't push back on that necessarily, but I think that's why i'm okay considering laurence here They just Do you keep track of specific red dense stats for your models? I keep track Like running back stuff and for whatever reason like not only does laurence not have a lot of passing touchdowns But like etm's red zone rush share or red zone share sucks. It's 32 which for his salary is too low So like it's weird the way it breaks down. They've had a lot of like Turnovers inside the red zone. Do you think is why that number for him is low? I was looking because my my numbers i'm gonna i'm gonna run this with number fires Database two might take a second, but I think there's just been a really really bad red zone team They have it's a lot of turnovers. Let me a lot of turnover Find this here But like that's why they've had those like dumb losses is because they've had so many like Red zone turnovers like they're in I love the jaguars and that That's a ton last year, but they're infuriating Okay Oh, I love their defense checked on dummy one pick three fumbles loss Yeah, so anyway, they've been a they've been a bad red zone They're a negative 0.33 passing that expected points per drop back inside the red zone this year Negative points. No, I've been positive watching but like that's that's better than only the jets. Yeah That's tough So like I think it's just flukiness inside the red zone Probably and that lens like that's why I like this game overall, uh, but and i'm sure the Like that that the Texans are um due for some negative regression as well. I'll just because they but like They've actually have they've been like decent. They've been like average. So I'll take that but yeah, um I'm just higher on stroud. I will play Lawrence, but he's not quite in that same tier So talk to me about the past catchers, uh here and so you mooner gets it cj stroud baller. I agree Good job mooner. You're the new host of the heat check. Sorry Brandon. You've been that's all I yes That's all we need to say that was the whole point. I assume Pass catchers here are also pretty sick. I think um Did you ask about past catchers that what you asked? I did. Yeah. Sorry. Got a ups delivery and the I heard them haul he always beeps when he comes by so it's very kind. I got real distracted That's very kind. Um, let's talk about the Texans side first Tanked down Nico Collins both good to go not sure of Noah Brown will play in this game He missed last week with a knee injury, but del and And Collins have been pretty consistent even if there's been uh, Noah Brown being active You'll get the games where tank del has done a full-time starters. Basically lopping off week one Admitting the game we got her early missing the game or many the game he missed I'm in the game that Collins missed it's a six game sample In that sample del is a 23 target share with 37 the deep work Collins has a 22 target share only 21 deep but 33 red zone share including five red zone targets last week and We have seen Nico Collins have big games. So I love tanked out. I have He's been very kind to me so far this year and I will use him here But I also do think there is credence to Checking out Nico Collins at 69 is kind of like a bounce back tight spot for him He did have a huge game back in week two when they were taking on uh, indie that game We did see uh tank del start for that one. It was the first game of starter, but like I still think tank del has ceiling game potential I will use both but like if you give me one lineup I might consider Nico at a reduced roster rate and reduced salary. What about for you for those two guys specifically? Yeah, there are a lot of uh receiver tandems. I like this week And this is one of them on the other side of this game. We have one of them. Um, I I prefer tank del which is a really easy thing to say, but when it comes down to the salary And if it's the difference between you know Well, I don't want to say hurts in and strout in this instance because I'd be stacking this game if I'm trying to play like Nico, but you know, there is a difference Here and Nico Collins has a really good role and as you mentioned, we know that he has upside Yeah, I think the role is not quite Like it's a full tier below. So I think the salary discrepancy is justified. Correct. Uh, but for the salary here great play Would would definitely not oppose playing Nico in my main lineup Especially because on the other side of this game We've got Calvin Ridley. We've got Christian Kirk and very similar salaries So you can get that mid-range mini stack here Hardest part is going to be figuring out who you prefer. Yeah, so any any leans there So I'd probably go Kirk just because he's coming off more of a down game than Ridley is I used Ridley last week because of The match with Tennessee, but also, um, Nate Tyson on the athletic football show talked about how They can use Ridley in less static ways when say Jones is active so like I got on Ridley because Nate was saying that entering the game and So I think that last week was not super fluky and honestly if you look at the games that Jones has played Ridley has a 26 target share with 38 of the deep targets and 43 inside the red zone One potential concern here could be that Derek Stingley is now healthy for the Texans and he'll work more outside than inside So I I think it's very similar honestly to the Texans where I like both And I have no objections to both I might just go to Kirk because he's coming off the lesser game than what Ridley is but It's not like I think I think that Ridley's a better process play somewhere I think Tank Dell's a better process play But if I can get lower raw straight and lower salary on these two guys, then I'm fine taking that route personally Yeah, and we've just seen this team be fine leaning on Christian Kirk Plenty, so I would probably lean Kirk from a just a pure regression standpoint as well. Yeah But again, I'm not gonna I'm not gonna be upset if I can play Calvin Ridley I think this also might be another situation where I play the same lineup and try to swap out Ridley for Kirk Kirk for Ridley That's something I like to do because I don't like being one play away from a really good lineup just because I didn't I'd rather do that than to just build a whole new lineup with a different quarterback and like a whole different structure That's my process And this is the one of the most obvious and one of the most one of the easiest ways Easiest situation so we could do that pretty much a combo game where I want to get Stroud combined with Dell and Ridley Stroud combined with Dell and Kirk stuff like that for me. Yeah, let's finish here We're talking about the backfield Travis etn salary $8600 lost some snaps to dearness johnson before that game got out of hand last week 75% snap rate for etn in the first three quarters snap rate the past two games has been down Both were kind of blowouts though. So I still like etn, but I don't Care like I don't I don't feel the need to prioritize my 86. I guess is what I would say if there's no Damian pierce devon singletary would be a great play at 73 I think pierce will be back and I do think singletary has played well enough where he's probably taken away From pierce once he does return But I don't think it'll be enough to justify him at 73 Given he's not the world's best most explosive running backs. So I think the running backs here are more underwhelming. What about you? Uh, I would say the etn is We're always looking for like pivot plays and ways to kind of think about the game A little bit differently and that could be, you know, you mentioned Nico Collins. Is that a tank dell? um, it could be christian kirk instead of calvin ridley because ridley has come off the big game, but One of the simplest ways to differentiate is if people like the passing offense Look at the running back if it makes sense. And I think it does for etn 88 first half snap rate last week He is he's just a really good running back and again would it surprise anyone? You you mentioned his red zone roles not phenomenal But this team's got some weird red zone stuff going on overall if this if this does turn into a back and forth affair etn putting up, you know leading this slate in scrimmage yards For running backs would not surprise anyone if he scored wouldn't surprise anyone. So I think etn's like borderline somewhat. I want to prioritize, but probably won't quite get there Okay, any final thoughts for you on this game? uh I was gonna ask about tight ends, but You can um, I mean Schultz and Ingram are there and they're like fine I don't feel the need to get to either personally. I think they're like like Schultz is a better role. Um I just like I don't know man. It's so hard for me to get there when his salary is 60 $800 that's really high. I think yeah Engram is 58 like that's more tolerable, but like He just hasn't shown any juice this year in terms of like fantasy upside. So he hasn't scored yet this year either Not eventually ask the change. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. That's fair. And if we have the the Lawrence touchdown regression that translates to everyone so Will you get to Engram or no? I'm more like I'm much more likely to play Engram than Schultz For sure. Like look, we have Kelsey. We have uh Trey McBride, yeah potentially kinkade If not those guys, I probably look at Engram next Okay, because I like the game. It's yeah, it's the game. We're stacking. So I think that's the right process play here You mentioned Kelsey Let's talk about him because right now the chiefs actually have the highest implied total on the slate that is at 26.25 total is 43 here with the chiefs favored by nine and a half We just saw this offense stall out against the eagles and that's how happened pretty often recently But the Raiders defense sucks. So good bounce back spot here for the chiefs What's your level of interest in the chiefs pieces here and any bringbacks on the Raiders side? Do you think we would get a like a level of Contrarianism on the chiefs here or do you think everyone's just going to go? There I think there will be contrarianism on Kelsey specifically because Hasn't had great games recently had these kids knees kind of like banged up right now So I don't think Kelsey will be super high rostered personally I remember talking in like week two or three if we can get Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews at at lower popularity than they should be like I mean and like that worked out that game was a tough matchup but like This is not a tough matchup and well We we almost exclusively look at the data And I know Kelsey fumbled in the red zone but With what else Mahomes had going on with the receivers something tells me Kelsey might be in store for like Yeah, 15 or 16 targets. It's the narrative part that has me wanting to go here as well. I agree yeah, so um, I I would love to get to Kelsey in my main lineup. So my question to you is Is he a true priority or do you like McBride enough where you don't think you have to justify an extra What 2200 in salary to get there? So I want to make sure I am pretty heavily overweight on Kelsey relative to the field I think that's my main goal this week. So However, many lineups I need to like shove him in to make sure I get that where I can benefit if he goes off That's what I want. That's like my key goal for this week. And I would say honestly like if you give me one lineup I might be trying to jam Kelsey into it like that does come at the expense of Stacking bills eagles like from the the fun guys perspective. It means I'm pretty much shoehorned into stacking Texans Jags, but I might do that anyway, honestly So if you give me two single entry teams, he is in one of them and he might be in the first one So I think that's that's where I'm out on Kelsey right now And then as my home's there or do you think it's more? Okay, I think Kelsey absorbs enough of my home's production where I get access to my homes via Kelsey Yeah, it's really tough with with my home's Um Like there's only so much he can do he does have a 400 yard game But two other 300 yard games and those were 305 and 306 Like would it surprise me if he puts up 30? No, do I think his path is as easy to get to 30? Compared to Alan and Hertz I think it's a lot harder because he just doesn't have a lot of help Yeah, I agree and I don't I don't know if he's gonna run for you know 40 yards in this match up because he probably won't need to Correct So I think he's qb5 for me Behind the four quarterbacks in the two games we discussed earlier. Is that too low? It's no, it's it's basically I think he's the qb4 Sure, but it depends on where we are with laurence Yeah, and I'm higher on laurence than you so that's that's that's the difference there So we're kind of on the same page honestly. Yeah, I think it's those five and then I would have to be talked into playing any other quarterbacks this week I might though like I might still Kind of take your approach of like I should have mahomes lineups like even though he's qb5 for me Like I don't want to use five quarterbacks. It's more than I usually use but like It does make sense to try to get there But he will not be in consideration for like if I have three stuff like that I think the The best case against forcing in mahomes is that it's really hard to bring this one back Yes, with a lot of confidence That's fair. Um So if you want to go that route, yeah, yeah That's fair. Let's talk about the receivers. Um, they all suck Rishi rice is 5700 dollars. His snap rate did not get better this past week, which is an annoying command of the buy week Um Mark bezvaldo's scantling is what he is. Uh, but justin watson got 11 targets. His salary is 51 If you look at the games Since watson came back off of his injury He actually has an 18 percent target share. He has 42 of the deep targets and 30 inside the red zone Is that enough where you consider him at 51? Especially when they're indoors, which means the deep shots may be more efficient than usual this week Or is that a trap off of a massive target load last week? So you said since he came back from his injury three because he had it Sorry three games. Yeah So then his route rates would have been 44 75 and 66. Yeah, he was eased back in the first one Because the elbow injury is pretty rough. So I'm including that game because it makes it worse because I want to make him look worse I don't use that as much. Well, that's what I'm that's what I was getting at is If you do it that way he looks even better Correct I mean Oh, he's got he's averaging 115 air yards per game over the past two Yeah, with his routes up. Yeah Five downfield targets per game. I think if you if I showed you this profile And just hid the name and said I'd be all over it my homes like yeah I don't know I would say then if you're if you want to get to my homes in kelsie to be different You can just plug in watson too. Correct. That's what I was kind of getting at is I think that's That's the route potentially That is appealing. Yeah I I can say now that all of a non-zero number of justin watson lineups Yeah We're going to compare it to rashi chahid um I'll throw a 2-2 at well in there if we assume cooper cup does not go And then let's assume there's no michael wilson and we can toss greg dorsch in there Where does wilson great or watson great out for you compared to the other high a dot type Non-physically imposing wide receivers. Although, I guess he's a little bit taller. I don't remember but um Behind she hid he's six two. Sorry. Didn't mean to slander him. Yeah, he's pretty big. He's pretty big. Um, yeah, he's fast Yeah Sounds like you're selling yourself on on him. Um, I'd go she heed first Sure. I agree Like tutu abo has shown things already There's a big big gap in quarterback play And who else was it? Um dorsch if there's no michael wilson I think the appeal of stacking watson with mahomes is enough for me to like put him Over dorsch. I think you second. I actually eat right now for me Yeah The more I think about it so and and then All right, so we're Again, if you told me someone was that like in his role has been It's been two weeks Also, like everyone else on the team stinks like they you know, like yeah, there's a reason he's getting snaps like yeah, yeah, you know Uh, if he just I don't I don't and he was the target on that fourth downplay too. So I know he let it go right through That did happen. Yeah I think he's worth considering Rishi rice is eight out the past two games with with watson up is 2.9 I know people like him. I know it's easy to sort of talk yourself into it, but I I don't quite think I'm I'm there. I'd rather play watson, which is I have been there in the past. I'm I'm okay missing out right now if his his path of burning us is almost non-existent It's too touch. That's what you need There's not enough volume. Yeah, there's not enough like high leverage work like again It we talked about this on the thanksgiving show You need more than just one but like watson is averaging five downfield targets per game over the past two. That's more Uh, I mean rice has seven targets the past two games total. Yeah, I I agree. It's watson as the top receiver here Okay, I'm sorry. Is it pacheco? Yes or no. I'm sorry. I'm sorry It's it's fine I don't think he's a Again, he's not someone who can burn us really. I feel like Can he I think he can I think he can Snap up Define burn us I guess as well I mean on this slate when running back is pretty bad and sour is pretty low It doesn't take a ton He's fine. So I mean it. Okay. If we like my homes love kelsey We're considering justin watson and isaac pacheco Are you fine liking all of those chiefs without any semblance of the other okay? It's the exact same thing as last week and that worked out like divante was good, but like He's also not low salary in this week. He's competing with divante smith in that range Competing with michael pittman in that range. I just like those guys those offenses more. So I i'm good No, no, I'll no bring back for me Anything else for you in this game? No, I mean we covered more chiefs than ever before. So yeah, all right Let's go into our trend section then talk about other things impacting this later Start things off by talking about the saints. No, michael thomas confirmed for this week Which could open up some targets for other guys in this offense. What does that do for you when looking at the saint's offense? Yeah, our trends are about some teams that early's mind about some teams that Don't typically get a lot of attention for me, but Saints without michael thomas can be pretty interesting On week 10 thomas left after just two snaps. So we saw chris olave Draw nine targets for 94 yards in a touchdown. He had 179 air yards and eight deep targets Which for me are targets traveling at least 10 yards downfield at parry Had an 89 route rate with four targets But rishi he'd also drew nine targets on an 80% route rate just 24 yards But 90 air yards and three downfield targets Alvin chimera seven targets as well In addition to nine carries his his rushing workload lately has been I think nine and two straight games Which you don't love but he is making up for it With a lot of targets and that definitely helps you can kind of double a running backs Targets and sort of get an equivalent carry workload based on historical averages. So definitely Want to make sure that i'm at least considering alvin chimera But last year we saw she heed in an elevated role for a few weeks without Michael thomas and if you try to adjust for games without thomas But with alvin chimera and chris olave and she heed It's kind of like three games that i'm keying it on and in those uh the starting quarterback was andy dalton But in those matchups, uh chris olave 30.3 target share 48 of the team's air yards for 7.7 targets per game 91 air yards per game She heed was an 18.4 target share 24 of the air yards chimera 7.9 percent target share but better rushing workload than he's seen the past two weeks with 17 carries per game which I mean, he's just two games removed from basically. I think it was I just looked this up 17 17 before uh two straight games with nine carries. So I think there's still a level of Like chimera here that I probably should be a little bit higher on but the salary of 8700 makes it easier for me to sort of downplay it a bit But you know derrick car if he's the starter has been pretty average even if you adjust four opponents faced but Facing a funnel defense 22nd in adjusted past defense fifth and adjusted rush defense according To a number of fire Metrics derrick cars faced a lot of past defenses 20 or the worst I'm in those 235 yards one touchdown per game Played right to the level of the opponent. So I don't think he's like elevating things. So I'm not that concerned if if he's in or out this week. It's more about the target shares I think chris alave with his downfield work at something. I've talked about a few times tons of downfield work um, but a little bit underperforming shaheed Really fun plays a heat check favorite. Um Camara at 87 again a little bit elevated And then I will again call out, you know at parry Playing being relevant, but I think I'd have a harder time with that based on what we've seen from shaheed historically. So Where are you with the saints? How many of them are in play for you? uh olave And shaheed for sure. I think that you're right on camara. I the sample I have on him is since jamal williams came back He still it's 13 carries and 7.8 targets per game in that span That's really good for this late. Like he has Almost three more adjust opportunities per game than any other running back in the slate and each guy's most relevant sample So that's like a a decent gap um So like he's worth considering I just don't know if I want to allocate 8702 a running back when I could go with a j brown at that same Basically salary instead or staphon digs. So it's more so about the receivers than camara himself uh shaheed like I've done research in the past about what What circumstances lead to big games for value receivers and it's guys Who get with high a dots playing in spots where either their offense will be efficient or there's a lot of passing volume and I think the passing volume aspect should be here given it's a pretty tight spread High enough total for 2023 and it's indoors. So like That's why I ranked him first among those value receivers and we've seen him get targets in the past Like he said 18 target share that sample. That's pretty good for a guy of his mold And like I think I have a saint's money line ticket. I would worry about that if james starts I don't worry as much about the past catchers of james starts. So Downgrade for betting fine for fantasy So I think shaheed has a good shot to be in my primary like my first lineup I build this week just because I need to say sorry to get to kelsey And I like the way he shapes up And we know That the injury exists Yes, so like we're not we're not it's not contingent which is helpful. But again, we need to be Like willing and able to pivot. Yeah, um based on injuries up until Sunday morning the one thing that with The one thing with camara now is like it's again like sort of that funnel defense Yeah, maybe he just gets double digit targets out of the backfield fine. Give me So I still wouldn't put him as like a core play But I I do think that I've probably been a little bit too low on him him versus etn what you got It's like I'd still want to go etn because I just think that game's gonna be a lot more back and forth I think I like camara more I probably and I should probably like camara more but yeah I think the games the game environment point is fair Okay, let's talk about the rams here I'm going to go through them with kairan williams and also without cooper cups and kasey does want to be ruled out later on this week Um kairan will be back though So let's start with that and we can chat about the past catches later on The fact that they released darryl henderson tuesday a pretty positive sign for the expectations from out the gate now I will say Similar to divan hn last week. I do want it to be full by friday and hn never got a full practice in last week So that was a red flag. So I want to see the practice supports on kairan first if he's full on wednesday arrows up, baby, but Do you want that by friday? At least they're also in the playoff hunt weirdly. It's like they have an incentive to push him I didn't think they would be like they still are so there's incentive to make him Trot on out there and williams roll before his injury was awesome He averaged 16.2 carries four targets per game His red zone share was 61 percent like a good mark for running back is 40 percent A very good mark is 44 percent He was at 61 percent bananas he would also benefit of cup can't go because He was at 27 carries plus 2x targets per game while cup was out his salary is 82 It's not a great running back slate So I would not be shocked if I do wind up on kairan williams week I think he's a top four at least running back play for this week Let's talk cup as you know pukinakua got a lot of work when he was out to start this year 33 target share with a 36 deep target share tutu atwell was a 22 overall Now's the van jefferson playing getting a 10 target share and vans now gone atwell's deep target share was 32 He did hit 100 yards once It's 77 and another Matthew Stafford I don't think he's playing as well right now as he was earlier on this year Maybe not as healthy, but I do think there's at least a window to consider atwell at 57 I prefer watson and prefer shaheed over him But atwell would be a consideration if I have too much of those guys need to Differentiate a little bit So good match up here for the rams against the cardinals will have at least one guy we're looking at in kairan We may have two with nikua and atwell if cups it so What's your level of comfort with those guys given how weird the rams offense has been since staffer started to kind of fall apart So kairan's workload has been One of the best In football when he's been healthy, and I'll talk more about he's one of my player picks with the assumption that he's good to go I think they wouldn't I think the fact that they released henderson so quickly is a is a good sign for You know, I don't expect him to be just like limited and very questionable to go into Um into sunday that might be something that that's why I don't like to read into injury stuff too much Because I can always get it wrong, but with the assumption that he's full by friday. I think he's potentially the best running back play of the slate Um with how good his workload is and frankly how good I think he is just after running back um And the more that I talk about the slate like if we get kairan limited on friday or Just getting to full by friday, and I'm a little bit hesitant like we have easy end. I think we have chimera um I have other ways to go but With the assumption that he's full uh in practice this week. I think he's the best running back play Uh, I would like uh, tutu out. Well, I've liked him in past weeks, but I I feel like when I see I watch red zone and I see the rams they play a lot of course in the afternoon So you see a little bit more of them than other teams just because there's there are fewer games I feel like matthew staffer gets Like walloped like three or four times a game. It just I don't know And he's got to get back up and like I don't know it just It's tough. So I don't want to get real close to karson one snaps in 2023. Like it's it's rough I don't want to get ahead of myself and get like too high on this offense, especially like the pass catchers or anything, but um, I wouldn't be like you could you could probably talk me into nikua without up at 82, but I'd have a hard time like Really getting there unless I'm Trying to really get like cute in a sense and play like a murray Mcbride puka stacked to be different Especially if like kairan williams becomes the optimizer love of the week You could just sort of pivot at the same salary That's more of a game theory play. Yeah, uh, gimme tutu out well instead in most instances Uh against the cardinals, but that's more that's still contingent on Cup being out I agree and I think we're on the same page there We'll talk about the cardinal side in my trend later on but first let's talk about a high chaos team the Indianapolis Colts they play in a lot of weird games because they operated at a pretty fast pace and Seems like jonathan taylor is pretty much fully back now So you're gonna break down what the Colts have been doing recently and what it means before we 12 against the buccaneers Yeah, it could be an up tempo game Indoors so that's that's an interesting sort of place to start. So if we look at the Colts with minchew Undercenter as a starter and jonathan taylor You know, you just kind of need You know, I've seen optimizers like minchew. I See it from like a pure value standpoint like dollar per but like that's not how I pick my quarterbacks And we have enough upside cubies that I'm not quite there but What I want to see is like at least average efficiency and he's had that if you adjust his Drop backs for opponents faced He is a perfectly 0.00 in terms of epa per drop back again with that opponent adjustments so he's You would expect that he played to the level of his opponents. He'd be at a zero. He's at a zero 233 yards Round up 234. I guess one point two touchdowns like It's enough to keep this offensive float And that's the best I can ask for for these non-elite offenses at this point and it's a better situation than we have for some other Offenses with backup quarterbacks, but in this split Michael Pittman has a 32 target share. It's 10.4 per game four downfield targets per game I like to give weight like I use weighted targets They're harder to like talk about but if you give proper value for like red zone and downfield targets He's sort of averaging 14.4 targets per game That's really appealing Josh Downs is a tricky one to look at for the full sample But almost a 17 target share with two downfield and a solid 8 out of 9.4 yards But his role has been down due to a knee injury Isaiah McKenzie has been playing more This is something that I need to monitor because I would love downs if he's full in practice salary is 5900 again indoors and In his if you look at just the three full games in this split 20.5 target share Almost 73 yards per game. I think he's Again, we're gonna we're gonna I know we're gonna end the show things to remember Track the injuries make sure you're around on sunday to update if you if you're traveling all that kind of stuff But also spend time with your family prioritize that but Uh Downs is potentially a key to unlocking the slate for me because if we have multiple true value receivers That makes stacking The bills and eagles a lot a lot more fun But I think the main name here and I don't want I guess I don't want to undersell michael pitman, but It'd be jonathan taylor. Uh, his snap rate is trending up quickly 49 61 75 and 89 percent over the past four games So a clear I just sort of make that line of demarcation the past two games where it's been over a 75 percent snap rate 20 and a half carries per game three targets per game just 72 scrimmage yards per game, but um, we know that taylor's Capable of overcoming circumstances. The problem is that the bucks are Again a really good rush defense. They've you can kind of cherry pick some matchups where they've been a little bit more Generous to opposing running backs like deandre swift had a good game against them but You know, they're top five top six according to a lot of metrics This far into the season the salary of 7500 does help account for that But this game could be interesting if there's if the pace is up if it's a little bit more back and forth Again, I don't want to undersell michael pitman at 7600 So I think there's like two and a half very viable plays depending on if we get downs in this game on this side of the ball so any thoughts for you on the colts and We got to talk about a team that always feels like we should be able to bring it back more easily, but It's hit or miss and then any bring backs for you Yeah, i'm definitely in on taylor the matchup does worry me for sure when they're healthy they're like insanely good and like it's a conscious thing they do now The 49ers were able to move the ball against them on the ground last week But that's also kyle shanahan and like I have a lot of respect for shane syken, but like it's not quite shanahan, obviously But just like from a role perspective taylor sour should be a lot higher than 75. So I don't want to overweight the matchup. I want to make sure I get there Will he be in my primary lineup? I probably would lean towards the other guys in that range over him Um, but like, you know, I want to at least consider him for sure in that spot michael pitman's a great play Um, just it's a good range. That's the only like knock against him is that it's a very good range It's the most michael pitman thing to be in a great spot when we actually have other options when historically for us, he's either over salaryed or Like kind of play him out of like begrudgingly. I want to play him this week, but it's we have other options If I had the sour to do it, I'd love a rashad whites michael pitman stack mini stack uh rashad whites Well, uh, these one of my player picks this week They've had a lot of really tough rushing matchups like they're a bad rushing team Like it's not just matchup related but like I think it's a great spot for him. So like a rashad white michael pitman Mini game stack is very attractive. So I want to make sure I get pitman in there There actually is like a fomo factor for him, which has not been there very often in the past So I actually do think the both taylor and pitman are worth getting to and I want to like consciously make sure I get them Even though I know my main processes. We're going to revolve around stacking the other games Yeah, I think we're on the same page. Uh, I like rashad white a lot this week I feel like you've been a little more clued in on The buccaneers receivers Then I have like you tend to have stronger takes on them where I'm like, I guess if I need to Yeah, my heavens is how it keeps rising, which is annoying Like I get it But it's it's a lot of touchdowns what you want to see But you also don't want to see a lot of touchdowns driving up a salary Because I'm asking like Godwin 64. I just like I want to see some yardage upside at some point. He had 114 earlier this year But that was when evan's got hurt in the game He has one touchdown all year He has like a very good red zone shares like he's due for regression Maybe it's a pitman Godwin stack or a jt godwin stack I think godwin still imply like I wish I could have more faith in the yardage upside That's like I don't care about the touchdown It's the yardage upside that bothers me more with him more than care about the touchdowns because if you give him like But like one touchdown with like 60 yards is gonna be like maybe 15 fandal points like that's Sure, but then at that rate because again the the cutoff point for me is 85 yards or two touchdowns But if he catches a touchdown he's gonna get extra yards on that play Sure, but I don't know I will I will use him He's better than everyone else in that range like If you I was gonna say I was gonna say can we do a quick scroll From below christian if you put me below christian kirk. I'm not doing in coryland sudden. Um Like he's the best guy below christian kirk But I'd rather is he some somebody say the only Yeah Why is demario douglas 61? Oh gosh, that's stupid. Okay, like he's better than that range But I'd rather just avoid that range. I will use chris godwin begrudgingly because He gets work and should is due for touchdown regression and I like this game But like I just worry about yardage upside Would you consider him In a primary lineup because you can okay I would rather get to the guys above and below him than be in this range Okay, well, like if I could not make anything else work And I didn't really want to go down to shaheed to get up and I had 64 left. Yeah, I'll thank godwin That's fine. Um, but I'm gonna build around other guys more Let's finish up with my trend here talking to the cardinals with kyler murray two game sample now We can check in on what things have looked like so far not a ton of efficiency yet kyler's at negative point oh six passing net expected points per drop back josh dobbs was at negative point oh eight kyler is at point oh three last year so Still not getting to the world's most efficient offense even if things Will tick up. I think they will but About ton of efficiency murray is running as much as you would like He has six point five carries per game for 42 yards per game Now he's scored rushing touchdowns in both games So fantasy totals are inflated, but the attempts should be there for kyler That's enough to make him a consideration to 8000 But I'm gonna go with cj stroud and trevor lorenz above him in a better game for stacking and I So I probably won't use kyler personally I am still on board the train McBride 27% target share in two games of murray 1.5 deep targets per game Didn't come through last week when I had about 75% train McBride, but at 61. He's still under salaried. I think I don't want to go up marquise brown or rondale more brown multiple d targets in both games Target share is 15% overall though. The one guy could see Using is greg dorsch if michael wilson can't play again dorsch is at 1.4 yards per route run since the start of last year And he's earned a target share of 19 or earned a target on 19 of his routes Which is not bad dorsch actually ran more routes than rondale more did last week a targets 76 yards Two of those targets were deep. So although it's eight out overall. It's pretty low at 6.2 That's because he gets some screens and stuff like that Salary for dorsch is 4,800 and I'll be there wilson can't go James connor snap rates of 63 and 69 in two games He hasn't been super efficient Both the texans and falcons are pretty good against the run better than the rams are Receptive to connor, but ultimately unlikely to get there. So McBride is definitely in dorsch would be in if wilson were to sit Kyler and connor fringe considerations for me, but probably not going to get there any different reads for you on this offense right now uh I want to get to kyler, but I don't think I will like you said. I think they're just better plays Um Again, if you want to I'd check for me on kyler. I have a dynasty league with him brock purdy and cj stroud I'm not playing him this week. I'm playing stroud and purdy over him personally and they both have lower salaries on fan dual Okay That's where I'm at for kyler. Yeah, I mean it makes sense. Um The the easiest case though for kyler is probably a lot of people will feel that way and If you can get kyler at low popularity with some stacking candidates I don't hate it Uh, where are you with like dorsch compared to the other value receivers? I think that's a real question because we both love mcbride Um, I like Rashid Shahid and justin watson more But if I need to get down to 48s, I'm receptive to it. I think is what I would say Yeah I and as someone who's Liked marquis brown a lot. I feel like I'm out. Yeah, which sucks. It's a little scary, but it's a bummer But I think it's the right move personally Um, okay, so Weather for this week. We're gonna skip because it's wednesday. So no point Let's take it now the positional plays on fan dual for the week 12 main slate starting off a quarterback brand And who are you targeting on fan dual for this week? I'm going with jaylon hurts. I want to get to him in my main lineup. Um, if I can't I have other options, but I think he's the best play but For me it really centers on the fact that we have jaylon hurts. We have josh alan. We have patrick mahomes These guys can put up big games. Uh, I run Your numbers on how likely players are to to lead in fantasy points these guys Understandably have a pretty big share of that and that's You know, that's something that's Easy to overlook because we have other lower salaried quarterbacks, but something that you really have to factor in. Um And hopefully we get enough value at receiver to get here But either way, I'm really trying to make sure I get enough jaylon hurts Into my lineups 22 carries over his past two games Um per game average of 10 carries and 34.5 yards for the season Uh averaging almost a rushing touchdown per game, which is Sick, but also very explainable Um, the bills do limit downfield passing I have them first in passing eight odd allowed, but they're also below average in passing success rate And completion percentage over expectation allowed. Um, he's a favorite Multiple stacking candidates. I don't want to overthink this one and I want to get to hurts if I can if not I'm probably bumping down to cj shroud From my main quarterback in this matchup against the jaguars He's got upside, uh, despite not being a running quarterback No more than four carries or 20 rushing yards in any game this season, but Has had some rushing scores two over the past four games. I don't want to bank on that But you know, you'll take it, but again, it's not the the reason that you're playing Uh cj shroud Beat the jaguars earlier. So this does mean this is a second time around to visual matchup It's a sort of a borderline top 10 defense sort of like eighth to 13th in various metrics. So, um Not a push-over matchup, but Not a tough tough matchup either and shroud's just playing really good football 0.18 epa per drop back over expectation That is the same as dak who's having a great year and fourth overall in the season just for some context. So like He can overcome a somewhat above average pasty His deep ball numbers are also insane. I love cj shroud. He's just the best of all time My first love is else jalen hurts for the reasons we discussed Um, that the touch push is just like such a cheat code for fantasy He has averaged nearly one rushing touchdown per game this year And it doesn't seem that fluky if you watch like the way their games play out He ran 12 times on monday The most he has run since he seemed to hurt his knee against the jets the bill's defense is not terrible But they're also now what they once were so I'm in unhurts once again. That's not a hot take but among the high salary guys hurts going to be My number one quarterback Among the lower salary quarterbacks. I'm going to go with trevor lorenz number one I do like shroud similar to you but Lawrence is a better match up here based on the texans They bring 24th against the past based on number fire schedule adjusted metrics But they're eighth against the rush So they do encourage teams to throw the ball against them and the jags I think showed last weekend's texans or the titans where if they are in that situation They will do so and do so Pretty efficiently 32 pass it in for lorenz there despite the fact that they didn't play for basically the entire fourth quarter in that game He has non prohibitive salaries on the stack candidates and christian kerkin calvin ridley the scheme is also indoors So yes, it is a repeat divisional matchup and yes, that does matter but I think they're more efficient when zade jones is out there I know where I want to stack lorenz. His salary is not that high. He's playing indoors Checks a lot of key boxes for me at quarterbacks. If I'm spending down relative to the stud quarterbacks Trevor lorenz would be my preferred route for this week Moving now to running back. What's checking out there bet me Stroud versus lorenz Okay, sure. I'll do that. I love stroud So like it breaks my heart to bet against him, but honestly you're doing it It's not an anti stroud take from me. It is a pro lorenz take but I like both so, but I'll take the bet because it's fun. I think it's a good bet And it makes sense because lorenz is underperforming and stroud's Potentially maybe a little bit overperforming, but now he's not because I think he's just awesome. It's sticky sticky. He's awesome I so if I had to sit here on Wednesday morning or Wednesday afternoon and say That I love any particular running back. It's really hard to do Like we got to play two of them We're open to the receiver in the flex, but if I had to pick one It's going to be Kyron Williams with the assumption that he's you know back and healthy His workload is really good. He leads the main slate Running back group and snap rate among his active games at 83 His workloads really good 15 carries and four targets per game 86 scrimmage yards But his red zone role is basically unmatched if you look at just the active games for the main slate Running backs 59.2 red zone opportunity share according to my numbers No other running backs above 47 percent or 47.3 percent I should I guess I should clarify and only three others are above 40 percent It is a plus rushing matchup for him And I you know the the release of daryl henderson so quick Let's me be more optimistic here, which is you know Rare for me But other than that I think my my second love i'm going to bump down to rashad white. I think i'm probably more likely to play him than any other back Just because the salary is good and the role is really good I mentioned the 40 percent red zone opportunity share Cut off For main slate running backs whites just below that at 39 percent, but he's third in snap rate among main slate running backs at 78 percent Great great receiving role as well a 13 target share 4.4 targets per game 35 yards per game as a receiver only alvin kimera at 43.6 yards per game has more receiving yards per game among the main slate backs You know good matchup or good enough up tempo. I like this one As my sort of second love for my third love i'm going to bump back up in terms of you You're going to order of preference not sour. I was like, where are you going for the like who you get? It's below six seven thousand. I was like you're very confused. Okay, cool Yeah, I I don't love the matchup, but I think the role is just way better and Then the salary indicates for for jonathan taylor Again incredibly tough matchup and we know that that's just the case for the bucks but If if you can tell me that I can roster a running back on a bad running back slate who just played 89 of the snaps and is not You know 12 weeks worth of Hits into the season I'll take that tight spread You know potential to go back and forth at least Um, I'm just going to take it for taylor again My question to you once you're done is just going to be Which running back do you think you're going to like lock in? Uh, because I want to hear what you have to say about that But tell me tell me your loves And then we'll try to put a bow on this as a wednesday afternoon so I agree that kairin's a good play and For cash games that I like kairin. I want to talk about a guy that we have not mentioned on the show A team we have not mentioned on the show yet for good reason to be clear I'll see you for good reason What? Like and we haven't mentioned him or his team all season Pretty much and I'm making an exception this week It's the king the king is back Derek Henry I think is in a pretty fun spot this week only for tournaments. Please do not touch Derek Henry and cash No, but for tournaments I think he's in play because they're facing the Panthers who ranked dead last against the rush this year They have faced the league high rush rate on early downs For the season This is the first time Derek Henry has faced a rush defense outside the top 20 based on number of fire's metrics since week five But he's still managed to hit 100 yards in scrimmage in three of five games since then he had a 63 Percent snap rate last week. That was his third highest mark of the season If he becomes popular fine, I'll pivot because like his his floor is not existent But as we always note ignore the floor, we're talking ceiling upside Henry has that still I think So for 7800 dollars For tournaments only again for tournaments only I'm into it and and He plays sunday, which is after thursday. It's november Which is after Thanksgiving. Oh, you're right. Oh my goodness. So maybe flash games too. Wow We're not quite to de-hember yet, but like, you know, we're close I thought I thought I was just post Thanksgiving was the Derek Henry It depends on what suits the narrative. So please please think about what you said and realize your sins here But for tournaments, I'm going to use them Just because I think that it's I'm hoping people won't if people get to them that I I can't do that at at a high roster rate But if it's a low roster rate, give me give me some Henry second love is also for shot whites The the Colts playing these weird high chaos wacky games White hasn't had great yardage this year, but he can have it He had 14.1 carries 4.4 targets per game And the role is not slid for him despite being ineffective like they don't care Like it's it's in part because they've had some like Really tough matchups. This will be just the second time all year The Buccaneers have faced a team in the bottom half of the league against the rush based on number fires metrics They've only had one plus matchup the entire year. This is the best matchup They've had the entire year and Rashad White has had gains where he's been pretty solid for DFS. So I'm going to be there. I agree that you were he's the number two play My third love, please Um, like earmuffs for you. I guess Brandon earmuffs take out your earbuds. Um, it's it's fine It's it's fine on this slate But I feel like you would try to sell me on this on a better running back slate too I have uh, it's a say Pacheco. Um I don't want to allocate a lot of salary to running backs this week So I might as well spend down for a guy facing the league's 28th ranked rush defense as a nine and a half point favorite The passing offense is not working for the chief So they could shift to a more ground-heavy approach and Pacheco's had 100 yards just twice so far or once this year. Uh, that was 158 yards though He has hit 90 twice since then so it's imperfect, but His salary is 66. Um Offense is still pretty efficient Bad defense from the opposing side probably won't see anybody here at Pacheco this week. So whatever Don't judge me go home. Uh receiver What I've said, I've said plenty of things in the moment on the show And I I know what you meant, but if the chiefs move away from the passing game To feed Isaiah Pacheco It'll not saying away from saying I did more towards I know what I know exactly what you meant But like yeah, yeah, that's a certain to think about calm down. Go home. Go home. I am calm. Who asked you your opinion? Nobody. I mean, I gave you we gave you a microphone. So I guess I got a 56 early down Pass rate. Maybe it's or 56.2. Maybe it's 55.2 but that's one more carry for Pacheco per game. I'll take it She'll sit here be sad I like both aj brown and divante smith, but uh, you're talking smith a little more in detail so I have no issues going with aj brown because Without a lot of like running backs to to like try to prioritize we can flex receiver. We have like Flexibility I kind of backed myself into that corner. Um And yeah, like the bills have a good a dot allowed, but aj brown's coming off of a four target one catch game Uh in which he ran every route His catch rate over expectation was minus 17.7 he Toasted a corner back and didn't get a pass because of a blitz I think this stuff matters for someone as good as aj brown where like they're gonna make sure he gets the ball um in a game where they're probably Again, they're playing a really good team again, but they're gonna need to throw it and if I can get aj brown Coming off of a down game at I'd say maybe an over salaried salary. I'll take that if you look back, um At his games last year without dallas codder He led the team with a 29 percent target share 95 yards per game again Coming off of what could have been a really good game even on four targets with that that long touchdown I don't want to overthink it and I want to try to get to aj brown As you mentioned aj brown versus alvin chimera Historically we've always sided with the running backs I think I might go aj brown this week even though that there's a potential again. There's a lot more volatility with receiver, but Boy, his ceiling is big Second love. I'm going to go with nico collins You can easily go with tank del here, but if i'm going a little more salary sensitive here Gonna go nico Since he returned in week 11 to a 76.1 snap rates, uh 29 target share Um, you know, he's just I think he's got a big big ceiling in the right in right situations And I think this is one of those right situations. So It's not as safe as I might like maybe for some other receivers particularly on the other side of this game, but uh nico collins tied to my sort of favorite Quarterback pivot play which collins see just out of pivots kind of a stretch But if i'm not playing those superstars strows where I want to go Subparent him. Whoa. Whoa. That implies he's not come on Come on Yeah, if you're not playing one of the higher salary superstars, there you go. Sure. Yeah, he's just like a revise and resubmit please We'll do uh, but nico had uh those 11 targets last week five of them were downfield five in the red zone so like again the path there is pretty obvious in a game that we like And we have a couple value receivers that we've talked about I don't I don't necessarily know if I would put Too many of them in the firm absolute love want to play I would probably be highest on rashichi heat if I had to pick right now, but I really don't want to overlook christian kirk at a salary of 6800. So i'm just going to make him my third love um here because we talked in passing contingent based on a lot of the value receivers, but Kirk was coming off an 11 target game of his own 104 yards And zay jones returned kind of caught off there, but he still led the team in routes with 88 percent It's potentially a back and forth game. And if you look at four games with all three So ridley zay jones and kirk active ridley leads with a 25.5 target share, but kirk's at 22 percent So about 20 percent of the air yards Just feels like we don't talk about floor a lot But it feels like there's a combination of floor and ceiling with what christian kirk offers us. So At that salary in a game. I like I don't want to overthink it and if the alternative is chris godwin. I probably want to get to christian kirk Yeah, I agree with that as well. My first love of receiver is going to be davante smith He had eight targets week 11 against the cheese two of those were deep and one was inside the red zone And that wasn't a huge surprise because we saw his role spike last year when dallas goddard was out So dallas goddard is out again We see davante smith pop up again That shouldn't be a huge surprise given the talent. He has what he can get those targets 74 to dollars very reasonable salary to get access to Either the best or second best game on the slate. So i'll take it happily My second love is also nico collins. I think that both he and christian kirk are in good spots After their teammates went off last week where you can go to both those guys as pivots Lower salaries very good games Like you said nico got a lot of red zone work last week 33 red zone share in the games. He has played with tank dal Only one of the spike games came with tank playing or like starting I should say but Digging 11 targets last week as you said they were pretty good targets too So I think nico collins a very very good play for week number 12 My third level b were she chahid because he's not going to get a role change in terms of snaps this week I think at parry will play snaps Or some other receiver was getting snaps last week. That was kind of weird and I think they brought back mark west calloway as well, but There's one less target earner out there. I think that's a good thing for chahid 18 target share in games last year where he had a legitimate role and thomas was not there He had nine with thomas getting banged up in week 10 And he has a 27 deep target share this year while sharing the field with thomas They're playing indoors playing against a bad past defense not a bad game to stack So where she chahid is like the best Value receiver we've had pretty much all year like the the guy who most fits like my jam. So I feel like I should go pretty be pretty okay with him I do like justin watson don't mind greg dorsch if there's no michael wilson Recepted to tutu at well, but to me chahid is the top guy of that heap To tight ends. Yeah, do you like josh downs if he's good? I like chahid more But do you like would you like downs? He's around at well, I would say for me I think I'd be higher. That's fair More than chahid though No, no, no, she needs our guy. Yeah. Yeah, okay. Everything else is sort of somewhat contingent Watson at 51 or downs at 59 for you Downs a full by friday, okay or enough tight end What you doing there? Oh you two things. Sorry. Yeah, well, I don't know what you were what you were thinking, but In week 10. So the most recent game for the saints Perry and Elave 89 percent of the routes chahid 80 percent juan johnson 59 percent nobody else above 13 percent So, okay, I don't know who you're thinking of but those three guys like were Elevator is receivers. I don't know anyway. Okay tight end. What you got there? um Travis kelsey It's really difficult. Oh, I know it. I was tilting because I was tilting because he wasn't running a lot of routes And that was because they were going run heavy never mind. I figured it out. We're good proceed proceed proceed uh travis kelsey like I think the narratives there where he just could get force fed But even before that like I know what it's been a while since he's erupted a main slate and just caused problems but He said nine eight nine 11 nine 13 nine four and nine targets like That's crazy to begin with and I will be Astonished if he doesn't get 10 targets this week like That's not how we play this like it's not how we look at things, but I would be really really surprised. Uh, he's got 23 yards more per game than any other main slate tight end He's at 71. He hasn't even been fully healthy this year And las vegas is also top sit like a top six matchup in terms of catch rate over expectation allowed to tight ends so I think he just gets peppered and You got to go out of your way to prioritize him a bit But without the need to force in a ton of like eight seven eight thousand dollar running backs Kelsey deserves a long look and of course, otherwise, it's tray mcbride standing out. Um at 6100 The breakout is still there with kyler back. So it wasn't just sort of a josh job situation His single game target shares with kyler are 29 and 24.1 percent So eight targets per game 3.0 downfield per game 87 yards per game My adjusted numbers as well have the rams as the worst tight end defense Um, which and those adjust on like a player level basis Uh in terms of fantasy points per target. So like I'm not going to overthink if I can't get to kelsey I'm gonna play mcbride and hopefully doson knocks rest up Yes rest up doson knocks. We can have three guys here, but I agree with you the top two guys are famous kelsey and tray mcbride I think like if you compared kelsey at 83 compared to the other receivers in that range kelsey's gonna grade out above jamar chase above mike evans for me at least um above Honestly, maybe staphon digs even like In like if you can compare a tight end favorably to those guys, I think you got to use them 179 yards a couple weeks ago. Like that's insane eight targets and all but one game this year as you mentioned They're in a very good bounce back spot. He's playing indoors. They clearly cannot trust the wide receivers. So like it's it's kelsey I think I would need one or two lineups to get to him this week. That's how much I like him other lineup will have tray mcbride I think at 6100 dollars He said 90 plus yards in two out of four games with no zack earths 27 target share with kyler murray. So I think we got to keep going to this guy if if kinkade is without doson knocks Then sure he's in that consideration set but without that it's really just those two guys from me defense. Oh, okay, so you You talked junk to me about Trashing james winston and here you are having the falcons as your love at defense Admit your betrayal tell you you're arguing for the sake of argument. Admit it Admit it You're trolling me about you've never done that to me before I do it every day, but you never admit to it I admit to it at least I know that's a face of funny Oh, man, um, so if if the falcons play Jameis winston, they're a really really good defense play his epa and success rate numbers are putrid It's the only word I can really use He's got like a high havoc Havoc play rate for better or worse And I still like this like this doesn't change the way that I feel about like a lava and shaheed, but You want sacks you want interceptions you want like again that havoc level of they you know defensive scores in atlanta They've got some some level of You know good Goodness in there like defensive metrics top 10 and success rate completion rate over Expectation and yards per target allowed on down for passes. They're a good rush defense Could force some extra drop backs even if it's car I think the falcons make sense because defense is a little tricky Unless you're saving like 4,300 or more which we don't typically do we try to find someone under 4,000 How dare you this is the trail like come on like Our dumbest argument is you yelling at me for not liking or not thinking winston is as good as dara car That's not what I said There's one of the situations where jim remembers it I'm gonna dig up to see all the seeds I'm gonna dig because he also because he also like read something wrong and then sticks to it when all I said was like Like what are you talking about like throw it down field and like give chris a lot of a downfield targets That's all I care about. You know he sucks Like that's not what I said But then you then you start arguing with me and then at that rate If you get my if you get like my point wrong, I'll just stick with it. Okay fair enough I've got the rams as the defense. I like the cardinals. I like um, McBride. I like Kyler enough, you know, I like dorks, but like They're 3600 dollars. They are slight home favorites and a game that should feature a decent play volume. So Don't mind the rams there. I also would use a Texans at 33 Like there's a low salary for a team that I bet the money line on So I'm receptive to them too The falcons at 38 pretty interesting of james plays because he stinks And we can at least agree on that now. So That's where I'm at here any final thoughts for you brandon before a close-up shot for today Uh As always for this week's show stay Tune to the news or at least make sure you're checking in on sunday morning. We spend some time with your family Hopefully everyone orders pizza for Or makes pizza for Thanksgiving and enjoy. You're not doing that. You're making quesadillas My quesadillas are good too. But like, you know Also, I I want to try this sweet potato quesadillas. I think that sounds good. So I might check that out Maybe not sweet, but like I do want to try it. Uh, yeah, like brandon said Ignore the slate for a while come back sunday morning refresh yourself on injury news Be receptive to changing opinions based on that injury news and Again, I think be more reactive to news this week because people will underreact to a lot of stuff Because there's less analysis out there. So it's a good week for us as people who pay attention So hopefully you can take advantage of that within your lineups That's all we have here for today as a reminder if you want to find the thanksgiving at three game podcast That is up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed the fandal youtube page and fan dual tv plus as well Brandon if people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? I'm on twitter at goodwill 13 gdula 13 and i am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis. You can find a fandal research on twitter at fandal research Happy thanksgiving to you brandon. Happy thanksgiving to you all of you listeners out there Good luck to you with your lineups and both the thanksgiving and the main slate We'll talk to you once again monday to wrap it all up. This is about the heat check fantasy podcast right here on the fan dual podcast network