 Yeah, global connections. I'm Jay Fidel. This is ThinkTech. We're going to talk about world events in 2021. We're going to review the world. It's only going to take us 69 hours to do that, but we're going to squeeze it in half an hour with Carlos Juarez, my co-host. Hi, Carlos. Aloha, Jay. Always a pleasure to connect. And well, here we are. Happy New Year. 2022 is now here. And I think, as you said, a great opportunity. In this case, I want to step back and maybe share an overview of some of the most significant world events that happened this past year. But also in the tail end, maybe take a look at a couple of friends that we can expect here this coming year. I mean, a lot of it is continuity, but there are some interesting new developments to be aware of. And of course, it's an interesting like in the Chinese sense. Oh, yeah, you may you live in interesting times. I think we do. Exactly. Yes. But who was it that said that? Wasn't that Charles, was it Charles Dickens or I don't know who was it? What is that phrase? I think so, but people attribute everything these days to Ben Franklin. Oh, well, he was a polymath like you, Jay. He was a man jack of all trades. But let me again, thank you for the opportunity as we've often had these dialogues just to kind of catch up what's going on. And, you know, we bring a public awareness to our viewers here, but our viewers really are everywhere. They connect all over the world and myself as I've spent many years floating around at times and think that Hawaii is always, always there to keep us plugged in. And, you know, on one hand, we also have to remember, you know, Hawaii, while we are this far away place, I always like to remind people we are the center of the world. We really are a place that is both a gathering place, of course. But it's also the center of this very dynamic Indo Pacific Asia Pacific region. And a region I like to remind people it's not just Asia and the Pacific Island, but it's really the Americas, you know, all of Latin America, at least the Pacific side, the US and Canada key players, and on and on. But let's take a moment and what I brought I've got a baby is a website I'll share as well that it comes from the Council on form relations is one of these, you know, prominent think tanks based in New York, and they publish an annual, you know, snapshot of some of the most significant events. I want to speak to some of them in more detail of course we don't have you know hours and hours to go overall but I want to at least touch on some and share with you a snapshot. So let me show I think we have a list here that has just a quick listing a ranking them not necessarily by any particular order just you know from 10 to one. And I'll go through a few of them in a moment but I'm just going to first show them the August, of course refers to this Australia UK US deal and this is quite significant it's a it's a trilateral security partnership that was signed by the Australians, the UK, and the US now the post Brexit now looking for new friends new alliances, but of course these are three traditional strong allies no doubt. But it's interesting because it really it's a big part of the deal is the US pledge to provide Australia with technology that's going to help them build eight nuclear powered, but not nuclear armed submarines and you may recall there's a big difference with the French because they had a deal that they broke with them and, but more to the point I mean I think it on one hand it underscores Australia certainly a very key security partner for the US no doubt and they have a strong presence here in Hawaii, an important really takes on a role larger than you might expect in the small state but it is because it's so much focused on security issues right. And so yeah quite interesting so that's just one you know what you know what's interesting about that. I'm not attributing blame but I think the Biden administration has been criticized three times in the past year for failing to include in a necessary party. He ignored France in any discussions about this. That's why the French got ticked off about it, and later Biden had to buy the friendship back he had to make another deal for other other weapon we defense. And then he was criticized for not including you know Afghanistan and the Afghanistan pullout talks, which I think it was kind of interesting. And then finally, most recently Ukraine, he's been having all these discussions with Vladimir Putin but, but Ukraine hasn't been partying to it on three occasions he has, he has ignored the party primarily an interest. And you could say that that's, you know, that's the way it's done and Tony Blinken's camp but you know it doesn't sound right, actually. That's a fair point and I mean my quick thought is that it reflects great power politics, you know the US kind of asserting it's it's sort of, you know, big power, kind of doing what it feels it needs to do it's the real quality. But of course it can rub, you know, people the wrong way or in this case, this, this, this, this office deal was put together rather secretly under the radar and they announced it rather quickly without in some ways briefing everybody so it came as a bit of a surprise shock and obviously a very serious diplomatic crisis with France so that they had the weather over but again it's it's relevant for us here in Hawaii because Australia again very strong presence here and a very key player in the, in this region for security issues. Let me move was just again going through a few more and we can stop a little more on a few some of them are going to be more interest. Of course the migration crisis I mean this has been with us for some years many years back in 2015, you'll recall the massive European prices that they've confronted but in more recent years it has tended to be the focus on the caravans of Central Americans but bottom line here is that while we've seen a downturn in some of the migration flows in 2020 because of the COVID by 2021 it did continue somewhat but it didn't go away and in fact we have some new issues. Of course the US border continues to be one of the areas. We've got other things like crises and Haiti which went through a dramatic you know assassination of their president and an earthquake, all of that that sends more people rushing abroad and it turns out increasingly, Mexico is the gateway the transit way for a lot of these Caribbean and even African migrants who are fleeing as well the European Union has seen a flurry of challenges on migration issues. We've seen an increase of 70% compared to 2020 and the number of people entering illegally. And here we saw months ago a massive crisis at the English Channel right where France began diplomatic crisis with between you know Paris and London over this issue. And lastly and I'm going to move rather quickly of course there's been attention in Eastern Europe and Belarus where you've had almost like the use of migrants as a political weapon, forcing them to cross into the neighboring territories, putting pressure on the European sanctions, so that in the end you know these are crises that don't let up and they just take on different forms, but migration continues to be a very, you know significant thing. When you have conflict economic collapse climate change, all these are likely to drive those numbers even higher so we're going to continue to see that and it played up quite a bit, and was testing many of these wealthy countries, particularly the US and Europe. I'm not sure that Biden has done all that well on immigration on migrants and other countries that are much more humane than we are. Sure, and of course, you know many were surprised that when he came in he was not able to, you know immediately dismantle some of the reforms that Trump had put in place, making it you know, somewhat harder draconian, and in some ways keeping in place this very controversial remain in the policy for the migrants so that Mexico would house them because that took a lot of criticism you know the conditions human right violations you know the violence that takes place there. So yeah, it is definitely a challenge it's one of these problems that boy there's no quick and easy solution. And at the end of the day the Congress doesn't seem to have the political will for an immigration reform that would need to address many parts of that right that defines everything in the Biden package of initiatives Congress is not going to cooperate with. Yeah, yeah I know and it's a it's polarized etc. Well let's move on a couple other items we have the Iran nuclear program of course, as we know when Trump came in he took the US out of that deal and so at least at the outset of 2020 21 sorry, the year began with a lot of optimism that this nuclear deal might be revived after three years after the Trump had quit it. There has been in fact some you know movement in that way and and and overall it continues. You know, the European Union is also now rejoining the negotiations. So there has been you know some movement in that and you know that that that's kind of back on the agenda if you will. So as it comes to a close, you also have again often on the talks are on the verge of collapse and some are estimating that Iran is just a month away from acquiring weapons grade uranium. And now the Biden administration facing the question of what to do if diplomacy fails and so while they're trying to gear that up and even you know, I guess it's what is it john carry the former secretary of state who took a lot leading role in that he's got a role in the climate change he's kind of still in the administration I'm saying that, but again it's looking you know like this is back on the plate remains to be seen if it's going to be effective but you know, well it's just another one of those issues with the Biden administration tells us and I really like him but this is one of those issues where it tells us he's got these quiet negotiations and you can negotiate anything. You just have to be patient and wait, but we've been patient for a year now and a lot of these quiet negotiations have gone nowhere. And I would say I would say that Iran falls right in that category. Yeah, yeah, and it's fascinating because I mean at the end of the day the US has a big power has so many, you know balls in the air and you know, at different levels and layers. And to add to that the conflict or the challenges of even putting in place some of the diplomatic corps, you know ambassadors that haven't yet been confirmed and, you know, power politics going on in the Senate, you know, particularly people like Ted Cruz and I think Marco Rubio holding off nominees, that has been tampering some of their capacity but it is what it is. Let's move again and here's an interesting one that really speaks to the challenge of coven in many ways and that is the supply chains have faltered and what this refers to it now supply chains has become a bit of a household word. For decades, you know we've had a world in which businesses have believed that outsourcing production is the key to success that's been going on now as part of this globalization. Well the strategy worked and it has worked for many years but of course, then came COVID-19. It exposed many of the downsides we have shortages and stoppages that you know that creates plugs in the system. And when the pandemic first hit, we had a lot of factories closing, a lot of inventories dwindling, we had shortages of shipping containers backups at ports, you may recall I think it was back in March there was this dramatic container ship that got stuck in the Suez Canal, billions I think it was a cost of $9.6 billion a day that was being lost because of the, you know the flow of container ships. So this was also a shortage that was most focused on computer chips that are used particularly in gaming consoles and car production. The point is that we live in a globally interconnected economy and suddenly something like this crisis of the COVID-19 ends up affecting the global economy the supply chain, all the way up and down the, you know, the row. It's not over yet either. The ships in the LA port are still stuck at anchor. And there was an article I think in the Times this morning or now yesterday, to the effect that there are empty shelves in the food stores now. So we have disruption of supply lines right down to food, which have not been corrected. And the bottom line is that these disruptions have been caused in part by the COVID-19 and they've contributed to a surge in inflation worldwide, something that's likely to linger for years so again it's just this underscores the interdependence of the economy, which brings us some positive aspects but it also shows that you know what happens somewhere else is going to affect us here. Let's move on a couple other ones. The next one would be of course the dramatic change in Afghanistan, the Taliban who we ousted from power in 2001, they are back and the US war has ended after 20 years. And it's ended with the same people brought back to power. Of course, at the tail end of Trump's administration, he had struck a deal with the Taliban that required the troop withdrawal. And Biden had ordered a complete withdrawal by September and then you know we spoke a few months ago about all the drama that played out there. Of course, you know the country collapse effectively or at least the National Army collapse the Taliban simply stepped in. And finally, you know the US withdrawing as many as 300,000 Afghans who qualify for these expedited US visas. You know, Biden administration has called it an extraordinary success obviously many others would disagree, and his public approval ratings have taken a, you know, a big, a big hit. And we have even many other allied, you know dignitaries who are, you know, kind of looking at it with a bit of you mentioned you know not even including Afghanistan at the table is a good another example. Well, many of the Western allies were a little bit upset that the US kind of moved rather hastily now it's it's, it is what it is but this is of course a legacy of this longest war the US has had now on its plate. And here we are now facing a, you know, a new transition into this Taliban government. So far it has looked at acted much like the one that horrified us 20 years ago. So a massive humanitarian crisis, probably looms and it's not going to go away. You know, the ironic Carlos is that under pressure, you know, he did evacuate hundreds of thousands of people out of Afghanistan, and, and place the, you know, the great majority if not nearly all of them, somewhere in the US. So they're migrants, the migrants for from we pay the bill. So while we are while we are holding the border closed to Latin America, not letting those people in who have been waiting for years. During the Trump administration, we let a couple hundred thousand people let in. It's our own fault what happened from Afghanistan and they're here, but the people from Latin America are not here. What is wrong with that picture. Yeah, yeah. No, again, it's one of the paradoxes and puzzles that we see. It's a terrible, terrible situation. Well, Jay, it's the second time let's move in and put on a few others. I'll move quickly through a couple of them. The next one I want to mention, which is the list of number five Ethiopia Civil War worsens and you know this is a country that's had its fair share of heartache for so many years and right now this, you know, we actually the the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded in 2019 to the Prime Minister for brokering a peace agreement with his neighboring country Eritrea. Well, things have taken a turn for the worst. And again, I don't want to go into the details of it, but essentially this civil war has worsened and we can probably anticipate right now we've seen 2 million Ethiopians have been displaced and again ethnic cleansing massacres gang rapes. It's just a story that has repeated itself and parts of East Africa and we're going to likely see the coming year with continued heartache for this country that has seen more than its share. As well as Sudan, Sudan also slid back down and they were going to have a civilian government now it's a military government as far as the eye can see. And we've had I'll just mention aside there've been several who's in Africa in Latin America some some some changes of government rather brusquely. Many of the more related to corruption scandals in a few cases but in Africa some classic you know military overthrows. Let me continue another very important one which is the number for the global democratic erosion and this of course has taken place, you know, really probably since about 2006 and continuing now through 21. The United States, our own country along the champion of democracy saw its own peaceful transfer of power disrupted as you know now we celebrated the one year anniversary of the January 6 and direction. But moving away from the US there's plenty of company you've got, you know, other places even India this, you know, government of Narendra Modi has cracked down on critics prompting Freedom House to downgrade them from a free to a partly free. And so on, you've got brazil's Jair Bolsonaro attacking the legit, you know, sort of in a Trump style hit the legitimacy of his own country's elections. You've got fledgling democracies in Myanmar, Chad, Mali, Guinea and Sudan, all of them were ousted in coups. And so, you know, it's curious because years ago, 70s, 80s, you know, we had a waves of coups were like the norm in parts of Africa, Latin America, but it slowed down for a bit now suddenly we've got a almost like it's, it's the latest trend coming back. Of course, let's not forget China's tightening grip on Hong Kong Cuba has continued to obviously, you know, arrest thousands of critics and in the largest protests that hit that country this past year. And this past month in December, President Biden hosted a virtual democracy a democracy summit. And, you know, it was clear that you know it was kind of puzzling because it brought together many but also some were critical of those that were included in it. But maybe the general point is that we have seen in general an erosion of democracy in many parts of the world, including our own US. And we continue to see that I mean, the data that shows us what percentage of Republicans continue to believe that the election was a fraud. It underscores the legitimacy of something, you know, as basic as norms of, you know, accepting the outcomes of an election of an election that didn't have massive fraud as some seem to believe. I call it the other virus. It's the other virus and it's not limited to the US is worldwide but I want to offer one thought before you move on to the next one. And that is that one of the reasons that a lot of countries were experimenting with democracy moving in that direction over the past what 20 years or so was because they believed in American democracy American was the city on the hill the beacon. Okay, and as you know the US has failed to perform in that area has lost its this order for democracy. I think other countries have been disappointed and discouraged. They say why are we doing this it doesn't it doesn't work for the leader of democracy is not going to work here. So they capitulate to an autograph. Well, no fair enough and indeed as we look at, let's say the last several decades up there have been several waves of democratization in the world and let's stop and remind our, you know, today, most people are living in more democratic societies and let's say a generation ago, and you know more open, and yet those those democracies are not perfect and some of them have had stepped back. And you know what I mean with the US which had long been sort of the beacon of you know inspiring democratic movements and supporting them sometimes, you know, positive way sometimes little underhanded, but today it has lost credibility. Indeed when people see you know our own institutions being ransacked and you know just the nature of what Trump brought to the dialogue. It hasn't in some ways inspired other populace leaders to follow suit. So that's a challenge and it's not something that's easily fixed. And, you know, well, it's going to be with us surely to continue. Well, real quickly, I'll finish the last two. Of course, number two is listed here Joe Biden becomes president this was a pretty significant event. You know America is back well you know he made that point, you know repeatedly throughout the year. He moved quickly to try to fill his promise to you know strengthen relations with allies, you know, this after the years of the Trump administration that had caused more rockets. But basically, I mean here again, you know, don't know what to say but obviously the US is back under a new administration trying to, you know, reconnect. But as we've said in different ways, you know, never easy always going to have some some challenges along the way the bungled Afghanistan withdrawal the clumsy office rollout, even the challenge of you know the slowness of announcing ambassadors which you know it's a political challenge, all of that has been at odds with you know somehow, you know, being smooth and effective. We've also got as we know politics defines everything and now that both houses of Congress are up for, you know, contention in the upcoming midterm elections this fall. Congress allies are going to have to entertain the thought that Trump and America first might return. I mean it's hard to you know, many people thought oh Biden is here it's all over now well guess what we're going to still continue to see strong forces pushing for, you know, for that that perspective. It's hard for them to fashion a foreign policy with a country that is not stable, a country where the power will shift, probably dramatically shift at the end of Biden's term. He's not likely to be the president for a second term that's the reality of it. And so if the calculus for them is, gee, what kind of deals can we make with the United States, when we can't count on them, having the same administration for more than a couple three years. And it speaks to often in let's say in the international relations literature in the academic world, we speak about how important domestic politics is in shaping international politics or foreign policy. And like you said at the end of the day countries are looking to us but they're looking at what's going on in our house and if it's you know the house is broken, they're going to have some doubts and skepticism about, you know what we're saying that we're going to do. And so the US comes we want to promote democracy but wait a minute you don't take a look at your, your own house and that becomes a challenge no doubt. Well, quickly we've got maybe just two more of these, the number two is listed here COVID-19 vaccine vaccines arrive as the virus mutates and of course here we've created we've been dealing with this in so many ways. But on one hand the speed of developing these vaccines was stunning no doubt. Historically, as we know 10 to 15 years suddenly was all done within the year. But more than that I think I'm going to speak a few more in a few minutes, one of the trends we're going to see has more to do with sort of vaccine pledges and politics in other words what the wealthier countries are doing to address it. But bottom line is that we know this COVID vaccine issue has been an important event for 2021. And, well, let me leave it at that because we would touch on it in different ways. The final point real quick, because I want a few minutes to touch on some trends for this coming year but the final world event of 2021 would be countries fail the climate change challenge. Once again, and we spoke about this in the recent you know cup 26 summit. But here, you know, we've got of course, challenges of many types you know record drought record flooding in parts you know we saw in Europe, epic wildfires and grease some monsoons massive monsoons in Nepal and India. So the world is definitely going through some climate challenges. We've come together and tried at this most recent reason, you know meeting in Glasgow, November they pledge to take steps yet pledges are not accomplishments is a lot of that, you know promises but even, even if Biden himself were to push through Congress to address climate change in an infrastructure bill. The bottom line is, you know, it's it's easily picked away. You know, like many places, he's hoping to have his cake and eat it too but boy, it's going to be a challenge. And in the end, the move away from fossil fuels is not it poses difficult choices. And, you know, you can think of even the Senate divided you've got that senator from West Virginia who's you know defending the economic interest of his state, but as a result, holding back the ability of the party to move forward a plan. So, anyway, the transition I'm sorry, you know, bottom line is the climate change issue continues to be there and countries have in some ways failed to address it, if you will, because you know, you know, there's a lot of talk but at the end of the day the political will is often not there. Well, let me stop on that a lot of other little stories but I wanted to just touch on those and maybe in the last minutes speak to we have another chart where I listed three of the trends that are going to probably be things we want to watch and of course there are many many but I'm just going to highlight these three briefly and continuing what I spoke a few months ago about the vaccine. I'm sorry the COVID vaccine. And here what we have is a world in which the donor countries the wealthy countries that have the vaccines, they're expected to give roughly three quarters of the nearly 2.7 billion doses of vaccines that have been pledged so far. And so you've got this process where although you know these these doses alone are not going to close the gap between the poor and rich countries. There's a huge difference provided that they can go to the places that are needed most and so you know you've got the major donors of the world are the United States and China, and they've indicated that they intend to solely address the vaccine inequity, but the bottom line is that we see a lot of strategic and diplomatic considerations politics that comes into play. When you look at where these vaccines are going again from from, you know, let's say in the donor countries, the Asia Pacific region has actually received a disproportionate amount about half of all the donated doses have come to the Asia Pacific, and four of them have received more than you know more than a quarter of those Bangladesh Indonesia Pakistan and Vietnam these are large populations and they they are the ones that have been sort of most, I guess, beneficial, benefiting from it. You've got others in the region, places like Bhutan Malaysia Sri Lanka, they continue to get donations despite having vaccinated over 60% of their populations, and even tiny Cambodia, the 10th largest recipient of doses. They have actually fully vaccinated 78% of the population and begun re donating some of their shots elsewhere quite astonishing cute story there. But the bottom line is that the US China and the US and the Europeans have all pledged to increase donations this coming year. It will, you know, favor certain regions over others. And you know it'll continue to be this kind of game of almost like a you know vaccine nationalism of sorts. The second trend is interesting before you get off that one. It's really remarkable in that trend is how many people in this country don't take vaccines even now, and how it's been politicized, and how it's been, you know, stuck in the courts, which is really ridiculous. That didn't happen with any vaccine up to this point. And then of course, talk about American leadership, we have the same phenomenon going up in other countries, especially in Europe, where people want to oppose the vaccine. I think they caught that that's another virus right. It's not a disease virus, it's a political virus. They caught that from the US and they're emulating the US. And finally, another point I would like to make in terms of trends is the more cases you have around the world, the more likelihood they'll be further mutations we've already had several. A few of them have been, you know, not not all that threatening but we do have some very threatening ones going on and when you have millions of cases the probability of mutations is there every day. And we may very well see something worse than both Delta and Omicron in the next year. Yeah, no no absolutely and again, we have so much unknown and these things have just suddenly confronted us. And I'll finish with two last items and both of them are in some ways connected China curiously. And the first is China itself an aging society, as we now embark in this 21st century China faces a massive demographic quandary. According to most of the estimates right now if the trends continue they have declining fertility rates in a rapidly aging population and this is common as countries develop they live longer. And the fertility rates are down and this presents planners in Beijing with a real set of challenges. It includes a shrinking labor force, a growing dependent population again Japan would be a clear example where they've got serious problems you got to start bringing in workers that's not easy for them, but for China again these are challenges that are going to basically affect them in different ways. Right now the most recent census they took shows that the birth rate has plunged to the lowest rates since 1978. And so there are concerns that there are now major policy announcements by many national and municipal authorities trying to raise the birth rates, lifting the cap on the number of children that couples can have from two to three offering financial subsidies to encourage additional children and aggressively promoting marriage and family values. And again the population is massive and you know, on one hand, let's say in the last 30 40 years they've done very well to slow down the population growth. But now that slowing down and the aging population is going to present different kinds of challenges. I guess that was not predictable. That's a question. No it is it's just you don't know when it's going to come or how quickly or what, but it's it's it's pretty much it's pretty well known. We finished the last one and it kind of on one and it takes us to Latin America it's a topic of renewable energies which are getting a lot of attention and Latin America and the Caribbean. They are today leading the world in hydroelectric and biofuel energy production. Brazil of course is a big player there, but the region is quickly harnessing solar wind power, many different places, several other countries in the region in 2019 pledged to hit a target of 70% renewable by 2030. There's a lot going on, and you know the rest of the world is not quite there. But what I want to get to hear what's interesting is that over the last decade, China, in particular but also Europe, they have had significant investments outpacing the United States in renewable energy investments in Latin America and the Caribbean. The US government itself and you know has had some some interest in it but at the end of the day. Very little China on the other hand has been making massive investments in many of the parts of South America, in particular, and given Latin Africa. Yeah, absolutely. And so, but looking just at this region in the America south of the US. This is one of the few regions of the world that's best position to take advantage of large scale renewable financing because again some of it requires a scale that you know not many places can do it. But at the end of the day again the US global leadership on this is not happening in Latin America, it's coming curiously from China and Europe. And so it'll be interesting to see whether Washington is going to prioritize more focus on Latin America's energy transformation that you know could help build goodwill. That is, we've got technologies and investments that could help us, but it isn't quite on the plate right now. Meanwhile, the Chinese are arriving with, you know, suitcases of cash and then building, you know, facilities and investing in the range of renewable energy issues. So that's that and again, just a, you know, super fast summary these are not meant to be everything but just some of the things that we're going to continue to look out for many of those things we saw from last year are going to continue whether it's the migration issue and, you know, some of the developments in Afghanistan and crises in East Africa, the erosion of democratic institutions elsewhere. Those are things that will continue for us and just shows you the world. You know, it's never a boring place. So always something happening I'm wondering, let me see real quick. Yeah, okay. I think that probably is what we can bring to closure. I feel a lot better now that you've covered those points, but I have this recurrent image in my mind. It's a little hole in the earth and in the soil, and there's a man put his head in there. That's what I feel that, you know, comes to mind when you describe American policy and all these areas. And the other thing that comes to mind talk about China is that there was an article recently about how you could take a train, a train from Beijing to Lisbon from Beijing to We, United States, is nowhere near there. Furthermore, there was a piece on, I forget where I was CNN recently about AI, but how China is not only catching up but surpassing the United States in AI and China believes rightly that AI is the future of the world. So, you know, the old American exceptionalism, which you and I have talked about a number of times. That's one thing that is in play right now and is, it is not likely to be as defensible at the end of 2022, as it was at the beginning of 2021. Absolutely. Well, thank you, Jay. Again, a chance to share just a quick overview, a snapshot of some of these things as we continue in this coming year. We'll come back to revisit some of these in more detail. But thank you again for sharing just some quick insights and perspective on global issues for 2021 and trends that we're going to look at for 2022. Thank you Carlos. Carlos Juarez of East West Center and many other educational institutions around the world. Thank you for this very thoughtful and for my money, a complete discussion of the major issues that have surfaced in 2021 and will undoubtedly continue with us in 2022. Thank you so much Carlos. Aloha. Thank you.