 Okay, let's start from the right side. My question is submitted to Ayal and maybe Jussi, because you always mentioned the negative impact of low precipitation on fruit. In fact, many researchers have mentioned, even with the increase of precipitation, the time of precipitation is more important than the precipitation itself. This is with regard of fruit production, as the flowering time is critical when it's associated with the precipitation. I don't see any of you mention these important factors. This is, in my opinion, more important than the precipitation itself. I don't know why you neglected it. Thank you. Thank you very much for your presentation. You all presented that there is a negative impact of climate change on agriculture and food production. So there are also, in many places, there are positive impact. When there is a negative impact in agriculture and food production, the role of market will increase. The local production system, production from the agriculture system will be replaced by the distribution through market. In this situation, I think we seek different alternative livelihood options, alternative food security options. Maybe that attracts market system, maybe market-based production system. In Nepal, we are particularly focusing on green economy, like climate-sensitive production system, maybe forest-based production system. I think we should change the ongoing agriculture system. I am particularly focusing on market-based production system and market-based economic development, market-based employment generation, climate-sensitive employment generation that can replace the existing production system by the distribution of food through the market. So what may be the mechanism or can we find any kind of such type of alternative activity or alternative livelihood options that can be applied in this situation. Thank you. Let's take one more question then we can go for the second round. A gentleman in the back. Okay, my questions are rather technical questions to Jose and Imet. I saw that both of you used some kind of two-stage estimation. First, if I understand correctly, Jose, you first estimate the climate from the Pacific surface, then use these results in another estimation. So in that case, do you use a panel or a panel GMM method? Because if you are not using GMM, then your results will be inconsistent and biased, etc. And same thing for Imet, are you making these regressions about efficiency? Do you use efficiency effects models? I mean, do you estimate the technical efficiency and then use these results as a dependent variable in a second stage, or are you making a one-time GM maximum likelihood estimation? Because if you are doing two-stage estimations, then your dependent variables or independent variables will be stochastic and your results will be biased and inconsistent, etc. So thank you. Okay, we'll start. Yeah, let's start. So regarding the first question about the timing of precipitation, you're definitely right, the timing of precipitation is important. In the case of Israel, it seems to not be so much important because in general, precipitation is very concentrated in certain months and at least the predictions that I've seen did not predict any change in that pattern. So in that sense, if such effect exists, it's probably of a secondary importance for the case of Israel, but it's certainly an important matter to be taken care of in other situations. Now, just perhaps a general response to the question about the market-based system. Again, perhaps my example is not good enough because Israel is maybe a good example to model climate change effects on agriculture but not a good example of developing country agriculture because in Israel, we already have all the mechanisms because we are facing shortage of precipitation for many, many years. Now it's becoming worse, but we learn to adapt to this situation. We already have a developed market system. We already have a developed irrigation system. We now use desalinated water for agriculture. So we do not see that any change in regime or anything like that is right now going to make any effect. And your comment about the positive impact of climate change on agriculture. Yeah, there are positive impacts, but somehow they could be, you know, maybe focused in one regime or another, one area or another. But the overall impact, I think most studies show that the overall impact of climate change is going to be negative. Okay, so regarding the first question about the frequency, I also agree, the problem that we had some data availability problems, we had a trade-off because we have monthly data for all the municipalities and if we go to daily data, we will lose most of the observations. But we are doing this because in fact it's much more important, even if it's highly correlated, but it's much more important to work on with daily data to see what are the drought spells and these kind of things. I think it's very important even if we are working on it now. But anyway, we will lose a lot of observations because we don't have such a grid in daily data. Now regarding the market base, in Brazil we have some place that will win with climate change, like they may gain in productivity, but the net result, it's a loss. The net result regarding all the country, but in the south of Brazil we have some room for adaptation, we have fertile soils, the temperature is not so hot, but also there is a kind of displacement of the agriculture in Brazil to the south. But anyway, what the government is doing, it's a quite developed market strategy we have, for example, insurance, but what the government is doing really is to invest, there is much room also for adaptation in Brazil. We don't have, contrary to Israel, we don't have any 90%, 10% of irrigation and we have a large irrigable area, so we can really invest. The government's strategy is really to invest in adaptation, strategies to agriculture. And the last question regarding the more technical one. Yes, in fact, this is a GMEM estimation. So there is no problems, like I didn't enter really in the technical details, but in the paper it's much more detailed, but it's GMEM, so in order to account for the estimated values of the first stage. In fact, there is one question which is from Hassan, a technical question about this bias that can be a result from the fact that we proceeded to this stage to make the regression. As you say, we tried different kinds of regression and we followed the approach of green. That means we estimate simultaneously the efficiency and the equation of efficiency. That is no problem in the first step. But when it comes to this long-run and short-run impact, we use a different approach. That means we estimated our efficiency and after that we regressed it. Now we can agree on the fact that there may be some problem of bias which we can discuss about that, but still it should be verified. I am not really sure that there is any kind of bias due to the fact that we use two stages rather than one stage to estimate the impact of different variables on efficiency. But the most important, by the way, we use a different kind of variable. We use it, for example, in addition to openness and in addition to investment, we use institutions. We use it, for example, financial development. All of them are not really significant. So we kept only the variables that are significant in our relationship. Is that to give you an idea that we checked every result and we did all the tests related to this regression? There is no problem about that. We have ten minutes. This means we can get three more questions, please. Gentlemen in the back. Thank you for your presentation. Regarding the second presentation about the map which has been... It's not working? I don't know. It's only for the camera. Oh, sorry. It's okay. Regarding the second presentation for the map which has been done for Israel, you manage there the carp or the species for agriculture. It's okay. Regarding the map which has been drawn for Israel, how can you distribute what is the software first that you use? GIS or what sort of software? Because I would like to have some elaboration for how can we manage consumptions of water. You said that there is desalination for water to supply for irrigation, right? So that means that in future no suffering from shortage of water or this map could be changed according to this managing sort of that issues. This is number one. Regarding the type of... Because I'm talking about landscape architecture-wise, a roof garden could be added value to the production or do you think it is neglecting for the amount of production? Value. Volume, I mean by a roof garden like that. This is added value for the product or not? Thank you. Okay. More questions? Is this your last chance? Let's first... You have a question? It's something that connects to the three presentations which is the substitution effect. So for example in Brazil you report a significant drop in the crops like corn and others. But if you really follow the logical prices, does it really matter if the production falls so badly so you can substitute crops in a condition of remarkets for example or you can import. So, you know, it's just more like a conception. Okay, last question from the back again. We have one lady. Alright, my question is for Ahmed. You mentioned that farmers in the Sahel lack motivation to adopt these new technologies in farming. But my question is is it that they lack the motivation or they have no incentive? Or is the problem that they don't have access or they cannot afford these new technologies? And don't you think you've had a factor that in your modelling wouldn't your results have been a little bit different? Yeah, I will start with the first question. Yes, you are absolutely right. There is some adaptations and as mentioned it's just a production function approach. So how, on any new impacts, a certain crop and in fact farmers may just change what they are doing and this happens. But the problem here it was really like a government request to analyze this, but especially because there have been so many like waves of leonins and people don't change as much. We didn't investigate it. But anyway, there is a kind of inertia. Of course, we would expect that people adopt, but in fact they don't adapt for some reasons, like maybe credit constraints, I don't know, education, institutional characteristics and this is worth investigating. But this was really just an impact study on crops and to see what would be short-term impacts and to see because of this empirical evidence that even after those such severe leonins during the eighties and nineties, people didn't change the way they plant. But this would be another investigation that's very, very important and to see what are the bottlenecks that don't make people change. But we are not considering this in this paper. Okay, thank you. Now about the question if farmers in the Sahel lack incentive motivation or this problem of access. According to our assumption, there is two ways indeed to, let's say, encourage farmers to use this new technology in order to improve productivity. The first one is to control uncertainty, which is here represented by this probability that for example the damage caused by the drought will be too high or the realization that means that the drought will happen. This is one thing. The other thing is the fact that is the cost of that technology. So for sure they have the motivation but it's a rational behavior. That means if they think that the risk is too high, that means the risk or the damage that can be caused by that risk is too high because they depend on production, for sure there is no other option for them to invest in this new technology in order to smooth the production or the productivity. But now it comes to the second problem, do they have access? That means do they have resources, for example, to buy this new technology? I doubt. I think this is the main issue, maybe. And when we see this interaction between this variable, give an idea about the fact when we have more access to international market, better macroeconomic context can help really to better access to this new technology. And we see that it helps really to adapt or to implement that kind of technology. So for sure the problem is that there is a high uncertainty, so we need to control further density through how we can control that this is another issue. And the other thing is that the cost may be too high and there is another option or another way really to address the problem is to make access to this new technology less expensive for these poor farmers. Okay, let me relate first to the question about the substitution. And of course, when there is any change in agriculture, there is always a substitution of one crop for another and this is an important fact. Now in my model, this is taken into account explicitly because we keep the total farmland cultivated fixed and we allow farmers to change crops. But even if on the macro level, you don't see any effect and there is substitution, there is a costly, substitution is costly. I mean farmers have to change their crop mix that not all farmers are willing to do that and some of them have to get out of cultivation altogether and some other farmers will come in. So there is a cost to the economy and you want to know what direction it goes, you want to know what the inward rate, the substitution is going to happen, if it's too fast it's going to be more costly. So that's an important issue and it should be taken into account, I agree for that. Now about the question in the back, I'm not sure I fully understand the question about the map but I have an answer, so tell me later if it's not the answer to the question that you asked. But the map, I showed two maps, I showed map of precipitation and I showed map of localities and there's a lot of overlap because originally localities were established, agricultural localities were established where water was available. Now since then we have water systems that go throughout the country from the north to the south, everybody pays the same price so they do have enough water and of course it is by quotas and the price is going up when there's shortage so farmers do react but it's not that there is some competition between the different localities of the different on the water system. This is regulated on a country-wide level. Okay, I think we have to close up our session. I just want to quickly summarize what has happened in the last 45 minutes. We had three case studies from Israel, from Brazil and from Africa. I think there were interesting presentations which have used different methods, different methodologies and there has been also raised very interesting questions about taking into account the climatic variables not just the average but by season. This is a very important point I think we have to take this into account but one of the responses was there is a need for that but we have to also think about the lidata limitations we are having because of the current that is shortage in the climate change on the search and also the question related to market was also very interesting. I think the Israeli case was that yes, Israel, it doesn't take this question is irrelevant for Israel because Israel already has, as mentioned, highly developed irrigation system, market system which we developing countries are already adopting but the question is very relevant to other developing countries and this should be taken into account in the research and also the question related to the use of methodology, technical efficiency, biasness in the first step, second step analysis was also asking the right question and I met, answered by saying that analysis were done in one stage analysis using the Green's method and this I can also say that the same methodology can be used using the Batti's curly method 1995 including the time taking into account the time it's just two different authors provide two different codes one is in LIMDEP and one can be integrated to other software. Let me just finish this session by saying thank you for all of you coming and tolerating our presentations asking interesting questions and I know that some of you are leaving this session with confusion but I believe our presenters will be available after the session to answer or to raise other questions and answers. Thank you so much thank you so much for presenting.