 Welcome, traders. So, this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munley, we're going to get going here in just about 30 seconds. Okay, welcome once again to this weekly live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munley, before we jump into today's charts. As always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer and most pertinent to today's presentation is the fact that the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine, they're not indicative or representative of those held by Ticknell UK or Ticknell Europe Limited. So, for those of you who are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from university, I joined a city plc consulting firm, I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I had a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, sometimes quite literally overnight. So, I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capitals play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately at that stage, day gambling. After some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck went out and as the market phase and cycle changed, I began to average down into losing positions, eventually giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my personal capital. To say that was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. So, I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So, I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years, it was a time during which I had not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing, extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality and all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So, what does that mean? Well, it means I have to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and you have a professional trading mindset, you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you really lose that emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So, I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of an individual trader, even a small string of trades. My focus on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered positive annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a manager counselor, so again delivering annual positive returns and currently responsible for managing a multimillion-dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to meet consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to Ticknell clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook, breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the trading day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos for markets that I'm actively tracking and I share those through the Ticknell trading view accounts. What I'm going to do for you guys here is I'm going to post a link into the chat for those that are interested in following along with those daily trade setup videos. Just posted that into the chat for you. I also run Ticknell's rapidly growing evenly strategy Facebook group where I post a daily trade plan outlining my pre-market trading levels for the cash trading sessions, the S&P 500, giving my bias for the day ahead and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have delivered over 4,000 points of profit since we launched the group last April. The second Ticknell strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The Ticknell futures telegram trading group is a real-time environment. On a daily basis, I share in-depth insights analysis and real-time trades. I also provide live market commentary during the opening hour of the New York cash trading session where traders can essentially see in real time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and importantly the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. That gives you guys a flavour of where it is I'm coming from. I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll put the link for the Facebook group into the chat as well. Anyone who wants to join me, you just simply send a request and I'll add you to the group and you can access my daily trade plan there for the S&P 500 or the E-Mini futures contract. Before we jump into the charts, just a little bit of housekeeping. If anyone has a question or you are looking for me to take a look at the chart that I don't cover in my deck here, then feel free to type any question into the chat box or type the instrument name into the chat box as well and ideally the timeframe we're looking at and I'll give you a view at the end of my presentation. Let's start with the S&P 500, the E-Mini futures contract and we are looking at a potential double bottom scenario here. For those who are here on a regular basis, you're probably aware that I was looking for one more new low in terms of the S&P 500, at least a new low below the June low. Statistically speaking, in down years when the market is in decline, it's very unusual from a statistic perspective for the markets to make a trading low during the summer months. So we're anticipating that as we head into the autumn we'd see a new low. We've got that now yesterday and we have got a pretty decent outside reversal pattern that developed yesterday as well, taking out prior two days of range and we are currently consolidating at about 50% of the tradesman of yesterday's range. So for me at this stage as I go into today's cash session, I'll be sharing the trade plan in the Facebook group but ultimately I'm going to be looking for long positions through yesterday's high, looking for a swing trade scenario, certainly thinking about a retest of this weekly trend line resistance from below, so that would take us back up into the 36-30 area. There is a gap that will likely be filled at 36-49, so that's another level I'm paying attention to, but I'm looking ultimately the three-way corrective move to take us back into test this internal trend line resistance into the 3,900 area as the next side objective in terms of the futures. Now if I get in today on this swing trade on a daily time frame, then in terms of invalidation for that trade, any new low today would take me out of that position and invalidate the idea that we're going to extend and we likely then are going to continue to the downside would be the thesis there, so I'm paying close attention to that 37-60 area today as we head into the New York cash session, moving to the NASDAQ similar scenario here, we have double bottom in play, NASDAQ traded actually into that equality objective and I talk about an equality objective, what I mean is equal legs in terms of market move, so from that 1,300 level we were looking for 11,200 as an equality objective, so equal legs, we got that and saw a nice outside reversal there, so similar story for the NASDAQ today, any move through yesterday's highs, I want to be on the long side, first target is going to be this high volume area 11,900 and then on to trading channel resistance 12,150, similar idea here, if we're playing this as a swing trade looking for a multi-day advance then the invalidation point or the stop for me would be below today's low, if we get traded in on the long side, looking at the Dow Jones, the Dow traded meaningfully below it's due low and similar to the other indexes we've seen a nice outside reversal yesterday, so we've got some nice momentum divergence as well, again for those who are here on a weekly basis you'll know that I don't trade counter-trend unless at a minimum we want to have a price pattern, we have price action confirming a potential reversal, but one of the key aspects for me in terms of playing counter-trend trades is this idea of momentum divergence adding an additional confirmation to the setup, so that outside reversal, so again with the Dow here any move through yesterday's highs, we want to be looking on the long side, we're going to be targeting a minimum three-wave corrected move that should see us up into trend channel resistance, 31,200 will be the initial upside objective that's high volume area here as well, so that's going to be the target if we can get through yesterday's high and again the invalidation point for that would be today's low at the point of entry. Russell, similar setup again, we're going to see common theme going through today with a bunch of outside reversals yesterday, so we have a potential double bottom in play and if we can get through yesterday's highs, so through that 1730 we're going to target trend channel resistance up to 1806 and again we use the days low if we get taken in on the long side during today's session. The DAX, DAX is a slightly different situation for me in terms of the setup here, we took out that support area that we talked about last week, now the DAX has a downside objective here, 11,150 and we have that 61.8% of the of the post pandemic advance, 11,220, so what I've been watching for here is any rejection now back into that price support area now to actors resistance would be a signal then to play the breakdown through 11,880 and the target there is that quality objective nearly S3 11,150 on the downside now on a weekly basis if we get a strong close back through this support area so back into the range here 12,400 area that would suggest a false downside break and likely to see a further extension up into the trend channel resistance moving to foreign exchange and we're a star of a dollar here. Dollar had a nice outside rejection yesterday from the ascending trend line resistance and a bunch of fib confluence there as well at 13113 70s so I'm I'm currently short the dollar and I'm looking to add to short positions on a break through the 112 40 area and what I'm looking for is a three wave move to at least challenge that prior high the before the upside extension at 110 70s if we can get through that area then I'm looking for further extension down into monthly projected range for and the ascending trend line support back into the 107 70s you'll note that we are seeing right about major weekly trend channel resistance as well we did obviously break through earlier in the week but interesting to see how we close if we close at or below current levels then we go a nice outside we've got a nice reversal pattern on the weekly timeframe and no we have that key momentum divergence in play as well so that would add encouragement to the idea that we could see a decent corrective swing in terms of the dollar note that I use the term correction at this stage that's all we can think in terms of what's happening in the price action it's corrected certainly has the potential to be a reversal but we wait for further clues and confirmations from price before we go down that route the euro dollar so we are sitting right at the trend channel support this is the trend channel we've been in all year in the euro and I'm looking to get long back through the 97 60s here and I'm looking to play a three-way of corrective move into the trend channel resistance and this prior support area prior to the breakdown here so let's just see us back into the 99 20 area then that's going to become a key decision point for the market are we going to hold trend channel resistance again and roll over or do we have a more meaningful corrective phase developing in terms of the euro again note the momentum divergence as we test the trend channel we get that outside reversal taking out the prior two days range and so that's that's sufficient to qualify for a drilling opportunity as per my trading strategy sterling under a huge amount of pressure obviously with the market's reaction to the UK's somewhat appears to be misguided a policy approach in terms of the the many budget markets certainly didn't like the idea of this this spending and borrowing unfunded and so with respect to sterling I think the balance of provinces to me suggest that we test parity I think the mark that's what the market is smells in terms of the downside so I'm looking at any three-way corrective move that terminates here the quality objective 110 80s bearish reversal patterns there I'm engaged on the short side and look for a move down to test parity dollar yen intervention last week and so we're actually trading just shy off the levels where they where the Bank of Japan intervenes and not hugely successful as as I noted last week these these interventions where they're orchestrated by a single central bank they have they don't really have a tendency to stick and and the market will press against them what you want to pay attention to and this is something we may get further down the track here this year or into next year is a coordinated central bank intervention so where we get the G3 or the G5 or the G7 central banks do coordinated intervention or some type of accord then those are certainly interventions you want to pay attention to and they often can be major pivots in the market so for me with the dollar yen I'm looking for any extension up into this 148 area as long as you maintain momentum divergence bearish reversal patterns there and I've been looking to engage on the short side certainly thinking about a move back down to 140 139 would be the immediate downside objectives we get through there and we've got that high volume mode and this is sending trend line support in this broadening top pattern which should see us testing to 135 years 10 year yields obviously on on everyone's radar at the moment driving the price action really um what we are looking at here is the potential for a wave for low to play out get that we look for another extension to the upside might be looking for a move up above 4 percent again 4.4.1 percent will be the target there and as long as you maintain momentum divergence I think then we should see some corrected move from there and obviously the yields trading pretty much in sync with the dollar yen at the moment so that's something to pay attention to that correlation so if the dollar yen is going to hold it's uh it's free uh sorry it's post-intervention sport area that 140 and we get that 148 and that would see the yields testing above that or up to that target zone of 4.1 percent euro yen this is one that I'm paying attention to we are sitting right at this provisional support zone in this wedge pattern so if we can get through or get a close back through 141 here and I think we've got the potential to to trade up and retest prior highs and break to the upside to get into the top side of this this wedge pattern and certainly I'd be paying close attention to any test towards 148 in terms of euro yen to get better traversal patterns there then I'm going to be looking on the on the short side and we could think about a move down into trend channel resistance coming in somewhere around 130 oz a yen similar setup really a nice outside reversal we're getting a nice bullish inside candle developing here so if that confirms and we take out that high then we can look for the oz a yen to extend up and again we'd be targeting a move into uh to test this ascending wedge resistance uh up into uh just shy of the of the hundredth level there in terms of the oz a yen and once again if we get up into that area paying close attention to the price section and watching for potential momentum divergence to play out and we look to engage on the short side then in terms of the oz a yen cad yen similar scenario really looking at this wedge pattern so if we can get a break through the pivot close through the pivot then we're going to look for an upside extension to develop I'm going to test up into 112 will be the target zone as long as we maintain momentum divergence there and I would suggest we will at this stage it looks like that and then certainly be thinking about fading that move if we're going to bearish reversal pattern from that zone moving to the dollar cad rejected at the 13760 this still looks like it has potential to to run a bit higher here in terms of the pattern we could see symmetry swing support here and look to complete a fifth wave up into that 140 zone so not not a clear trade set up there for me in terms of the dollar cad the oz a similar scenario really we are sitting right at some pivotal support here at the 64 area but unless we can get back inside this this descending wedge pattern then I'm not super constructive on the oz and I can see the potential for another leg to the downside to complete a five wave sequence here in terms of the oz so again we are building some nice momentum divergence and as long as that's maintained if we can get back into the the wedge there then I certainly would think about intraday long setups but any new low in the oz as long as you maintain that momentum divergence could be an opportunity on the long side the dollar you want sharp rejection from those prior highs interesting never at 719 talked about that last week so at this stage if this if the dollar one starts to roll over that's going to add some weight to the dollar index which is my preferred vehicle obviously for paying some near-term dollar weakness gold also interesting nice outside reversal yesterday and we get this nice bullish inside candle holding the mid of yesterday's range so again for gold I like this on the long side through yesterday's high so something through 1670s I'm going to be looking to engage on the long side using today's low as an invalidation point and the first target is going to be a move up into this trend channel resistance into the 17 2017 30 areas the target there note again some nice momentum divergence on this last push to the downside crude oil not much to to do here we are trading down into the 76 target area the next level I'm watching now for crude is actually going to be 73 60s on the downside I don't really like playing it to the long side unless we get a close through this trend channel resistance which appears pretty firm at the moment there isn't a setup for me as such I tell you one pattern I would watch here is if we can get a move through that resistance up into monthly range resistance again back into that 90 dollar zone then any pullback that holds support into that 80 more 81 into two area then we can have an inverse head and shoulder scenario and set up a move then back up into the late 90s but nothing for me to do there at the moment in terms of crude to wrap it up with bitcoin we still are seeking that 12185 downside objective any move into this trend channel resistance now and the interim 21000 which for bearish reversal patterns there as an opportunity to get in for that test down to the 12185 area like I say as we're holding this trend channel resistance can't get constructive on bitcoin personally unless we take out 25300 on the upside to suggest a more meaningful low in place so that completes this week's whistle stop tour of the markets in terms of the opportunities I'm looking at and paying really close attention to these outside reversals and some of the key instruments the equity markets the dollar gold the euro are all on my radar I'm also paying attention to that euro yen as well and the Aussie yen trip tend to trade in sync with risk sentiment so if we're going to get a push higher in terms of equities we anticipate the Aussie yen and the euro yen also would see a nice little pop in line with that move but waiting for that confirmation and for those in the Facebook group I'll be posting a pre-market trade plan shortly giving some intraday levels and paying attention to in terms of in terms of the S&P 500 and how you can you can use those to minimize your risk reward setup oh sorry to maximize your risk reward setup or for those swing traders like I say playing those daily breaks and using the days low as an invalidation of stop is another smart way to do it if you haven't got time to be at the screens so are there any questions or anyone like me to take a look at an instrument I haven't covered Steph US 30 H1 let's go here the CME provide order flow information for the indices Stephanie not not Tickman um get to our Jones so the YM here let's do this so the setup in terms of the the one hour chart here for me would be uh let me just draw this in for you so we have this range to the upside like so so another important factor is we get the PCE uh data tomorrow I think that's going to be the next catalyst in terms of a major directional driver for these markets um if that comes in on the light side I think we can see a rally in the markets however if it comes in on the hot side uh then I think we can see a meaningful sell-off so I'm anticipating today to be a bit of balancing type day consolidate and then like I said if we get favorable PCE data then I look for an extension up into this low volume area and weekly projected range resistance 30,500 in terms of the Dow Jones there obviously if we take out the low here 28,860 so if we get a hot number tomorrow then I'd anticipate we break down next downside targets will be weekly projected range for 28,200 and the weekly S2 just below 28,150 any other questions okay I can't see any other questions coming through at the moment so I'm going to uh hope that we are all on the same page no problem Steffi and um as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage all this until next week thanks very much