 Welcome to Tick Mill Weekly Market Outlook for a week commencing the 23rd of September with me, Patrick Munderley. Following a week of central bank meetings, focus shifts back to key macroeconomic data, starting in the US with the release of first-year readings. The week starts with August Chicago Fed Activity Index manufacturing conditions, a week and likely to remain so. It also gets September market manufacturing PMIs, investments in employment in manufacturing sector is set to decelerate further. September market services should read that risk from global and manufacturing weakness are starting to take an impact. Tuesday sees September Consumer Confidence Index with expectations materially weaker than current conditions. On Thursday we will receive Q2 GDP final print, expected to come in line with the 2% expectations and no material revisions likely. Friday we will receive August Durable Goods Orders, underlying trend weak and at risk of further deterioration. August personal income with wages growth robust but unlikely to accelerate further. We also get August personal spending with spending expected to slow through the second half. August PCE deflator with core prices expected to rise 0.2% in the month and 1.8% year over year. We wrap up the week with September University of Michigan sentiment with current and expected views having turned down. Also keep an eye on the wires as we have numerous Fed speakers commenting throughout the week. From a technical perspective the dollar index has frustrated both bulls and bears this week and continues to consolidate within a tight price bracket of the 99-98 handle. Now as previously suggested I continue to look for further downside in the dollar index. I have a target down at the ascending trend line support towards the 96-50. However, if we do break to the upside in the dollar index and take out the 99 resistance then I'll be anticipating we test this confluent resistance above at the 99-80 which represents both the yearly R1 and the monthly R1 and our ascending trend line resistance. I'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns in this area to set short positions again targeting that 96-50 support area. A sustained push through the 99-80 and a breach at the 100 psychological level will see a test of the monthly trend line resistance up towards 101. Whilst we're talking about a dollar let's check in with gold. Gold mapped the price pattern that I identified last week and we've held that 14-80 support zone with a strong close on Friday. Whilst 14-80 survives I am looking for a test of the 15-80 resistance which represents the yearly R3 pivot and the monthly R1. From here I'll be watching for potential bearish reversal patterns to set short positions targeting a move back down towards the 14-50 area. However, if prices fail to break above the 15-35 resistance there's the potential for a head and shoulders pattern to develop and that could see an early test of that support down to 14-50. In Canada this week we don't get any tier 1 data although market watches will be eyeing the wires for political developments that are likely to take centre stage as current Prime Minister Trudeau remains under pressure ahead of elections on the 21st of October. From a technical perspective as the Canadian dollar continues to find resistance at the 133 I have an equidistant swing objective down at 131 where I reassess the price action. Data for the Eurozone is pretty limited to the preliminary Monday's September market manufacturing flash PMIs. Manufacturing is likely to remain weak we also get September market services flashes unlike manufacturing services have to date remained resilient. We also get speeches from ECB President Draghi who speaks on Monday and Thursday in testimony to the European Parliament. From a technical perspective much like the dollar index the Euro has continued to consolidate in a relatively tight range with resistance at the 111 handle and support down at 110 as 110 continues to support I see the potential to breach the descending trendline and a move up to test the 111 70 level where the major descending trendline comes in just above the 112 level. However a failure below the 110 support zone would open a likely retest of our current lows down to the 109 30 and likely an extension lower to test the descending trendline support down at 108. Whilst we're talking about the Eurozone let's check in with the DAX. The DAX continued to consolidate as we had suggested last week and I'm looking for a pullback to the support trendline support at the 12,150 level. From here I think we should get by stepping in to complete the cycle and test up towards that 12,700 resistance level where I would anticipate we see some various reversal patterns and an opportunity to set some short positions playing for a three wave correction. Similar to the Eurozone data it's pretty sparse in the UK the data bag comprises of key manufacturing readings the CBI trends total orders and Friday's GFK consumer confidence index which is expected to remain supported by the robust employment situation in the UK. BOE Governor Carney joins the ECB chief giving a speech on financial services in Frankfurt on Thursday. However the main focus will be on the UK Supreme Court ruling on the legality of PM Johnson's suspension of the Parliament. A verdict is expected early in the week. Cable tested up towards that 126 target area and sellers duly stepped in and we saw a key day reversal in Stirling on Friday. Whilst the resistance at 126 remains intact I see the potential now for a more meaningful correction down to the 123 area where I'd be looking for bids to develop and then I'd be interested in setting long positions on daily reversal patterns to target an equidistant swing objective up towards the 128 area. However a failure below the 122.30 support area would be a bearish development suggesting move back down to test cycle lows below the 120 handle. In Asia the the Asian docket we are looking to Japan's preliminary market PMIs released overnight Sunday production remains subdued globally however the tax hike may have encouraged some activity to have been brought forward. Bank of Japan Governor Corolla speaks on Tuesday and BOJ watches will monitor for hints at future stimulus given that the planned sales tax hike increases next month and the fact that the yield on the 10-year government bond breached the lower bound of the central bank's target range. From a technical perspective the dollar yen has found resistance at the 10850 now looking for any pullbacks to the 107 area to find support to set a base given the prior range resistance at this area we've now anticipate that it will act as support retesting the monthly pivot from above as well so I'd be watching for bullish reversal patterns to develop here and then I'd be targeting a move up to 10950 however if we hold the lows put in last week then there is a potential that we see an early test of that 10950 area where again I'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns to set short positions to target a more meaningful correction back down to this 107 support area. Finally in Australia there's no tier one data of notes but the focus will be on RBA Governor Lowe who's speaking on Tuesday providing an economic update. The Aussie will likely take its queue next week from risk sentiment regarding the US Sino trade talks. From a technical perspective the Australian dollar is testing the key support zone and if we can't hold this 6750 it's likely we retest the current lows back down at the 6680 and probably breach those undercutting the year-state lows testing the year Yuli S1 pivot and also the monthly S1 down at 6650 where I'd anticipate we see some profit taking however if we can hold Friday's lows at the 6760 area I see the potential to set a base here to target a test of the major trend line resistance coming in just below the 70 cent. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 23rd of September.