 Okay, traders to another tick mill weekly market outlook with me Patrick Mundley. This is for week commencing August the 1st. So let's jump into the data for the week ahead starting in the US. Monday we get global manufacturing PMIs, the final estimate for the month looking for 52.3. June construction spending last time out negative 0.1%. Market median this time is for a 0.4% print home building to provide medium term support in terms of construction spending. We also get July ISM manufacturing last time out 53 looking for 52.1 supply and cost pressures weighing on manufacturing growth. Moving to Tuesday June Jolt's job openings continues to point to extraordinary labor demand there. Then we also get FedSpeak from Evans New York Fed Q2 household debt and credit report also. Then heading into Wednesday we get the services PMI final estimate for the month looking for a 47 print. We also get July ISM non-manufacturing 55.3 last time out looking for 53.9 services at risk from loss of real income and rates. We also get June factory orders last time 1.6% looking for a 0.8% print this time capital investment holding at robust levels. We also get June durable goods orders looking for a 1.9% print there. We're also here from FedSpeaker Bullard. Then into Thursday June trade balance looking for a negative 81.5 billion print there deficit continues to remain very wide. Initial jobless claims 256k last time out these are starting to creep up from those historic lows. We also hear from Fed member Mester and then we round out the week with the all-important non-farm payrolls data last time out 372k looking for a 250k markets medium with some analysts looking for a potential print as low as 200k payrolls due for a week month given the heavy survey flatten Q2 but unlikely to rise for a few months now putting off the next leg down in terms of wage growth. So we're looking for the employment rate to come in 3.6% in line with last time and that's July average early hourly earnings sent to monthly the 0.4% there versus the 0.3% last time out. So from a technical perspective the dollar index is at a pivotal level here we have had this three-way corrective move we are testing trend line support here at 10514 what I would note and I'll just draw this in now is that we could actually see a further extension here to test the equality objective so we have an equality equal legs ABC corrector would actually have us trading back into that 10419 some high-volume areas there as well so first and foremost can we get a reversal from the trend line if we do then we want to be engaging on the long side back through 107.30s and we're targeting that 110 test if we don't hold the trend line support then we'll wait and we'll watch for our price response at the 104.20s if we get a bullish reversal pattern there then once again I'd be engaging on the long side and the target remains that 110 at this stage it would take a loss of the 103.70s to suggest a much more meaningful high as in place and we'd be looking them for a deeper corrective move certainly thinking about every test of the 101.30s moving to the Eurozone in terms of data this week start off the week on Monday with manufacturing PMI final estimate for the month 49.6 percent there we also get dune and unemployment rate looking for a 6.6 percent print there holding at record lows then heading into Wednesday services PMI final estimate for the month 50.6 we also get dune retail sales looking to be flat zero percent there cost of living pressures really weighing on the retail trade in terms of the Eurozone and that rounds out the data in the Eurozone there lighter calendar for a week ahead it's very technical perspective as we hold support at 101 we look for a test of the trend line resistance and this price support zone here from the breakdown 103.60s from there watch for any bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side I'm looking for a move down to the 98.79s the next downside objective there for the Euro potentially then we get a test of the yearly S3 97.50s but from there I'm going to be watching for bullish reversal patterns bullish momentum divergence to engage on the long side for a more meaningful correction in the Euro similar to the dollar set up there we should know that there is an equality objective slightly higher just above that trend line there well no it's actually coincides with the trend line so that 104.10 104.15 there could also be an area of interest so anything into that 103.60s 104.15 watching the bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side heading to the UK what have we got on deck there we get Monday manufacturing PMIs 52.25 less back in the month Tuesday July nationwide house prices looking for 0.5 percent print their demand continues to soften as with rate hikes in the UK take effect then into Wednesday services PMIs 53.35 less for the month Thursday BOE policy decision is there going to be a 50 basis point height needed to quell inflation market estimate is looking for that 50 basis points and the median there is 1.75 percent up from that 1.25 percent so really going to be key decision point there in terms of trading next week for the pound so from a technical perspective we are looking at this equality objective versus the swing structure here so we are sitting right at that equal latency we've got some profit taking into the close on Friday at 122 area so as this 122.60 120.80 acts as resistance and we are looking for another leg to the downside to testing that 115 area however at this stage any close above the 122.70 120.80 would be a bullish development certainly don't think about a test up into 124.25 in that high volume area in 25.30 so it's really I think the BOE is going to be the driver for this next leg of price action in terms of sterling now heading to Japan we have there Monday manufacturing PMI 52.2 final estimate for the month Wednesday then is the next data note that's the services PMI final estimate for the month just looking for a 51.2 print there that's all the data really out in Japan next week from a technical perspective dolly and broken down out of the wedge now and so I'm looking for any recoveries into the high volume area there 136 to find resistance and I'm looking for a move down now to test 130 is the next downside objective before then re-engaging on the long side of looking for an extension through the prior cycle highs toggling that 140 area rounding out the week down under in Australia what do we get well it's a bank holiday in New South Wales on Monday markets are open though then heading into Tuesday June housing finance looking for a negative 3% with some estimates as low as negative 5% the downturn to show three more clearly investors margin less effective than affordability constrained owner occupiers then we get retail sales on Wednesday 1.2% nominal sales up 3.2% quarter every quarter but 2% of that likely due to pricing inflation then we have Thursday June trade balance looking for a 13.9 billion print there imports up exports can someday after rapid gains and we round out the week on Friday with the RBA statement on monetary policy updated forecasts are really going to be the focus there for Aussie dollar traders so looking at the technical setup we've taken up trend line resistance so what we're looking for now is a grind higher into this high volume area of the 71 80s from there of watching the bearish reversal patterns to reengage on the short side at this stage in terms of breaking lower from current levels we would need to take out the lows here 69 15 because we still do have that weekly downside of quantity objective 66 40s but for now whilst we hold this this trend line and those 69 10s we're looking for a 71 80 tests and we'll round out the week by taking a quick look at bitcoin bitcoin still tracking for a potential way for high here into the 124 sorry 24 25,000 level and we still have that downside equality objective 12185 and lowest you see the similarities in terms of the setup here in bitcoin with this phase of price actually for the roll over and I'm anticipating potentially something similar developing here obviously we need to take out this trend line support now to to see a momentum move to the downside to target that 12185 and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the first of August as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much