 Today is another day for NFA live welcome everybody and as usual I've got a little bit of a bank rot But I'm joined again by my compatriots Ben from into the crypto verse and guy from coin bureau gentlemen Welcome back to the show Thanks for having us. Thank you Rob That Rob there's an error of there was a slight error of weariness in your voice there Yeah, because it's a little well, you're right because it's a little wary right now because of what we're going through and that Then topics we're gonna get into I gotta tell you this is not gonna be a very popular show and Just sit back and listen to the things that are saying and of course you're welcome to sound off in the comment section So we're gonna go over a lot of things. We're gonna go over this this subject about crypto verse banks things that are happening This is not gonna go over well CBDCs and are we missing something good for them? We're gonna talk about two-year the Treasury and the rate hikes Talk about is this a bull run or BS then finally we get to the mentality Which I think is honestly probably the most important part, so Let's start with this crypto crypto verse banks and When I was thinking about this it's because we've seen a big collapse of three different banks, right? we've seen it with signature Silver Gates and Silicon Valley Bank and There's a narrative out there and one of those narratives is that crypto is Behind or is the linchpin that has destroyed everything or is destroying everything so the question I have for you gentlemen is this Did crypto put these banks in danger or did the banks put themselves in danger and if so Why do people only hear about one side of the story and how can we shift that narrative? This is a touchy subject. I'm sure but we'll start Ben I want to start with you and then we'll we'll go with guy because after this one guy I want to talk to you about your CBDC video. You just did. All right, Ben. What do you think? I? Mean my opinion is that that crypto had no part in putting these banks in danger. All right, you know I'm of the opinion actually that crypto does not bring These bad things put it this way like the way I think about it is this if If someone is is going to do bad things if they're going to make poor financial decisions, right? They don't need crypto to do that crypto could just be an excuse to do that So crypto might bring stuff to the surface, but that behavior was already there crypto is just sort of the vehicle that that brought that poor behavior to the surface and so Yeah, my opinion on this is that crypto is it can be the scapegoat I think to to sort of say well This is the reason But oftentimes it's just because it's unknown a lot of people don't really know what crypto is You know, it's just this thing that a lot of a lot of people make risky investments in But I think it's ultimately the scapegoat and and I believe that with a lot of these banks Especially ones that were we're showing, you know weakness recently and some of them went down, you know I know that they have ties to crypto and that's like the on and off ramps for crypto But I don't I'm not really of the opinion that the crypto led to their problems. Yeah, I mean to me It doesn't really seem like Again, I think it's a way to just have a scapegoat and and to say, you know Crypto is is the reason for all this mess So that so that other people can can rationalize, you know, why you guys made mistakes So, I mean, I don't really have any anything Much more insightful than that. I mean, it's just it's the same thing with You know, like like, you know being like a politician or something, you know, like you politics, you know people who go into politics who who do things It it, you know being in that field can just bring bring the stuff out of people that was already there Okay, it doesn't it doesn't necessarily mean that the thing itself is bad But it can it can bring stuff out. And so that's what I ultimately think is Happening with crypto and I think we're at the phase right now Where the crypto verse as a whole is in a very precarious position because we're trying to figure out, you know who we are like what what is the crypto verse and And you know a lot of a lot of the people that trusted crypto a year ago don't really trust crypto anymore And so it's gonna take some time I think to build back that trust but I think we can build us But I think we can build it back as long as we you know try to do it correctly this time and and not and Not have the industry fall for the same mistakes that we've fallen for for the last couple of cycles Yeah, and then bonus just real quick Do you think this is the the things that are going on you talk about trust and and just real quick Do you think that the things that we went through will be able to remember and actually push on to the next investor? Or do you think it'll just be lost kind of just like how we had with the mount gock situation Everybody said don't leave everything on essential as exchanges and what did we do we left on centralized exchanges? So do you think that we can actually remember this or do you think it just gonna be like goldfish memory and then Just get lost in the background I think we're going At the risk of saying this time is different, right? I think that this time might be different in some sense and the idea that Because crypto has gone so mainstream right now a lot of the mistakes that were made this cycle are going to be remembered because You know like people are getting involved this time, you know a lot of the a lot of the banking sector again Has been sort of cut off from the crypto verse. They're turning, you know, they're turning the liquidity off and So I almost feel like we're gonna be forced to remember it Whereas in 2017, you know 2018 and 2014 it just really hadn't gone mainstream yet And so, you know some some different places went down, but it didn't really lead to any change It people people just kept doing it every single cycle this time I think next cycle is not like the the fluff of Some of that same the same type of stuff will likely go away. That doesn't mean we can't have something else So it's the thing, you know, like there could always be something else that is is, you know ends up being detrimental, but To some degree it seems like, you know, what are the what's the likelihood that at least a company the United States, right? What's the likelihood that they're gonna be able to pop up within the next year? hopefully before a you know another another cycle and And and and do the same exact thing that these other companies did that all went under I think there's going to be a little bit more oversight and and I know I don't I don't want us to make the same mistakes again I mean, I we really need to to purge all the all the garbage and try to try to move up You know in a more sustained way Gotta agree guy same thing here. So well said Ben With this thing that the cryptoverse banks is What's the issue here and why is the narrative kind of being shaped in this way? I know that you've talked a lot about in your channel operation choke point 2.0 and then also I'll just remind everybody. This was a tweet that you just put out just recently where you said you said this you said look Oops on I should probably bring up that screen He said just so you know We've got The FDIC is planning on selling signature bank to a mega bank in the coming days but one of the conditions is that The mega bank must cancel signature banks crypto services. So again The banks first crypto it looks like there's a full-on war How do we get over this and is and was this the issue was crypto the problem? Well at the risk of at the risk of sounding obviously biased, but yeah, I think there are two I think there are two suspects here Crypto it this is I'm with Ben a hundred percent. This is not a crypto problem This is first and first and foremost on the banks especially in in SVB's case Because they didn't hedge they didn't hedge correctly. They had their you know They were invested in long dated treasuries and they should have known that those treasuries would go down in value as interest rates rose and You know, they knew the interest rates were going to rise But having said that I think the other the other Guilty party here to a large extent is the Fed Because I think they they initially dismissed inflation didn't they this this is transitory and then Because they'd been slow out of the gates They had to hike much more aggressively than they would have done and if I remember rightly this was the fastest in percentage terms This was the fastest interest rate hike in history. So that's how you know, that's how behind the curve. They were so Although I although I'm hesitant to say I sympathize with the likes of SVB I do to some extent because they parked their assets in what they thought were, you know, the safest place And they got caught out because the Fed had to you know, the Fed basically Drop the ball So, yeah, this is this is a hundred percent Not not cryptos not cryptos problem I I see it like I see it like a murders taken place, you know, someone's been Someone's been shot and the cops are swarming all over the scene and they've Arrested the first innocent bystander Who saw everything who just so happens to be crypto? and Yeah, I think it's it's very much. It's very much a failing of the banks It's a failing of the fractional reserve system It's and I think that is one of the reasons why crypto has become such a scapegoat I think for a start crypto is an easy scapegoat. It's something that has an image problem Let's face it I think we've talked about crypto's image problem a number of times in in in these live streams before And there's there's no denying it. It does have an image problem A lot of people are suspicious of it a lot of people unfortunately have lost money in it on it in the past And so that makes it first of all first and foremost an easy scapegoat to me Oh, it's crypto crypto again But also I think because I think crypto is getting the rap because Otherwise you have to blame you kind of have to blame the system in a way you have to blame the whole edifice and If if that was the case if they would have come out and be honest about it and say look This is a failure of of the banking system The Fed hasn't the Fed hasn't done its job properly or the Fed was slow out of the gates Then perhaps you risk even you risk shaking confidence in the system even more and obviously that is how Bankruns start. It's all about confidence. Isn't it as soon as consumer confidence goes as soon as depositors are worried about their holdings That's it. Yeah, it's a it's a race to the bottom So yeah, I think there are I think those are the two sort of main reasons why Crypto has has has got the rap unfairly Okay, perfect. So this will this will lead me to the the next point because you talked about Jump well pretty much jumping the conclusions, right? Someone gets arrested. There's a murder Let's let's arrest the very first person, right? We're gonna jump to conclusion before though We do go on that there was one I saw some in the comments about people saying well with all these banks going down Who's going to be able to bank crypto? I mean for first of all for retail like everybody can I mean most the banks are taking it But for like the big institutions the coin base to crackings things like that There's a couple of things first of all don't be fooled. This is from you got a ETH This individual works at Coinbase does the wall as a service. He goes. Hey look Just because the couple of the banks shut down just remember that United Texas Bank Western Lions JPMorgan Chase and Bank of New York Mellon all have crypto businesses as customers and then just this morning Fidelity came out and said look if you want to trade with Bitcoin, we can do that on our platform This is for retail customers, which is open to millions of people So we talk about the banks they can have the narrative. That's fine But the thing that you said guy where you said, you know, let's not jump to conclusions There was this video that you put out in this really snazzy shirt And you said look CBDCs are almost here and he talked about pretty much what they are and The negative parts of it. So the question I had was this This is not gonna be popular. So CBDCs are we missing something? That's positive as far as a central bank digital Currency coming out and are we just jumping the gun or is this all 100% bad? And just kind of give us like a quick overview about this this video Sure, are we missing something positive? I Guess I mean the big the big selling point with CBDCs is going to be convenience and You know, there is there is no doubting that they are Going to be convenient and anyone any government rolling out any at their CBDC properly Will make it will make it easy to use and will make it easy for people to access and Let's face it people People take the path of least resistance not everyone But plenty people do. Yeah, people's lives. I think in a lot of cases difficult enough Without having to to struggle with you know, alternative systems of money And it's going back to what you and Ben were we're talking about just you know a few minutes ago You know, how do we how do we educate people? How do people you know? How do we stop making mistakes that we did last time? And I think one of the problems is that crypto is not very user-friendly at the moment You've got things like setting up a wallet. I've talked to people. I mean, sorry Rob Go on none. I'll just say exactly this is the thing that people talk to me about like well I just haven't used crypto. I'm like if you tried to do use a dex as a normal average person It's a it's someone just ridiculous. Sorry. Go ahead. Yeah Well with I mean, yeah, and I set things like setting up a wallet setting up your own hardware wallet I've spoken to a few a few people. It's like, oh, yeah, I've got one. I just I'm a bit nervous about the whole process And I think well, maybe I've just set up one hardware wallet too many and I'm I'm blasé about it But you know, it is it is pretty straightforward, but then you know, I'm used to it So I guess it's about, you know part of it is going to be the and this is why things I this is why so many people are happy to stick With the fiat system that we have but people like Visa and Mastercard have done an excellent job of making everything quick and easy and Especially when you consider all of the shenanigans happening behind the scenes, you know, I remember making a Podcast episode about this a while ago now, you know talking about the process of what happens if I were to send One of you guys $10 or if I was to send, you know, someone 10 pounds in the UK or whatever it is, you know It it's so complicated. There is so much going on behind the scenes And when you tap your when you tap your cards in in the store and your payment goes through We don't see anything. It's just tap and gone It's so easy, but there's so much happening behind the scenes and that's what they've done They've made it. They've made it easy. They've made it convenient. They've made it the path of least resistance. So Going back to CBDCs Sure, I mean, I think they will they will make it easy people will go Well, why make my life more complicated than it needs to be And I think to be fair, you know digging into CBDCs a little bit and they're all you know So many places are in various stages of development I mean, we could see we could see some CBDC projects as soon as next year remember China already has CBDC pilot up and running and I think it's really telling that China was sort of first to the party there I think that says everything that you need to know about About the direction that CBDCs are going to take us in so Yeah, it's it's I think they'll make it easy to start with and I think they'll make it quite benign to start with because If you if you start introducing having said that, you know, the UK which is which is pushing ahead They they recently admitted that there's the the Brit coin project is fairly well advanced What a name and you know that they admitted at one point that holdings would be limited to ten thousand dollars and And it's sorry ten thousand pounds. I beg your pardon, right, right, right and everyone went what? Yeah, and that was just you know That was a glimpse a glimpse into a glimpse into how these things will work and just imagine The government being able to see everything going in and out of your wallet in and out of your account You know, you could argue that well banks can already see that and if a government wants to get that information Then it's probably not that difficult I still think, you know, especially and I think in places like, you know, in so many countries that don't have Authoritarian governments, it's easy to take these sort of things for granted But believe me, it's gonna be yeah, it's gonna allow for unprecedented amount of oversight because nothing reveals more about you more about your life Who you are what you do than your spending habits It tells a government. It tells any observer everything they need to know Excellent. So yeah, I gotta agree with you It's the the mass of people will say well, this is easy. This is cheap. This is fast I'm gonna stick with this and it's gonna work out pretty well for them until and this is something that you talked about in the actual video itself and Everybody who's watching right now. There's a link in the description You can check out that video of the CBDCs But it was this part that got me and he said digital pounds could protect consumers in bank runs Meaning we're gonna be able to shut this off so bank runs can't happen and that right there I was like, okay, it's gonna be cheap fast and easy if you're gonna get used to it But then when this happens one time Then people will actually wake up. So Excellent excellent response guy. Thank you so much then same thing Well, are we missing something good that me and guy just missed as far as CBDCs? But I think you guys said it. I mean, I think the main Advantages or that it would be more efficient The disadvantage of it being more efficient is that it's gonna put some people out of work You know that that it might be in in jobs that are required because of the current inefficiencies I think that yeah, I can make it can make transactions cheaper But the problem, you know, the problem that I see with it, of course, is that you're gonna have increased surveillance and you know I don't want I don't want the government to You know be able to just see at any given time what anyone in you know in the country is doing with their money I feel like it gives you know too much control and And yeah, I mean, you know, the funny thing is there's a lot of the benefits that CBDCs can can provide Are it's funny because it's like well, yeah, like crypto provides a lot of that without without the surveillance part of it I you know without the surveillance aspect of it, which I think is why a lot a lot of people like crypto So, yeah, I mean like there are some benefits, but some of the some of the the consequences are Are quite a lot And I mean it's gonna it would certainly take some getting used to if we transition to something like that But just knowing that, you know, everything you do is watched like a hawk. I'm sure would make some people somewhat uneasy Exactly. Yeah So I think there would be I think there would be so many ways to sell it as well to certain sections of the population like let's say you could You know, they could because these things are going to be so programmable There's there's going to be so much that they can do with them. That's so manipulated You know, they could start with something that would that would probably make sense to a lot of people They could say all right. Well, gambling is a huge problem in this country So you won't be able to you won't be able to spend your CBDC. You won't be able to spend Bitcoin With any at any gambling Outlets you won't be able to spend it at the bookies or at the horses or whatever a lot of people would say well That's that's not a bad thing gambling is gambling is bad gambling is ruined it ruins lives gambling You know causes all sorts of social problems that makes perfect sense to me and You know, then it's a slippery slope and you know, you start with one thing that's that's kind of fairly popular Okay, you can't spend it in gambling what what's next you can't spend it on alcohol for instance and all of a sudden it's you know, you can't stop it's a genie I don't think that could be put back in the bottle So that's one of the you know, that's that's that's one of the main things that I have a real problem with about it You know, there's just no stopping once you once you've started down that route Yeah, and everybody that toilet CBDCs they go. Ah, you just you're just paranoid It's it's not gonna be like that But I got to tell you every time that we felt like the government couldn't do something. Well, they just go ahead and do it I mean don't remember don't remember Canadian truckers got got shut down for their their GoFundMe campaign Just at the at the one of the government like oh, I didn't know they could do that They can do whatever we give them power to but remember they work for us And that's a big difference and then before we we we go on What we just talked about as far as the narrative it all comes through education, right? So the things we talk about crypto versus banks that narrative That's why you know, it's important that we talk about it the second thing about CBDCs people are like This is a great and then we have to remind them of what the potential downfalls are So that takes care of the the light the lighter stuff. Let's go into a little bit of a macro to your Treasury and rate hikes and then I'm gonna start with you because we just left off there was I mean we've seen You know if we take a look at like Treasury yield curves, you know, there's an once once there's an inversion, of course some like this Now we start to see of you know at some point This is an indicator of a recession and we we inverted the 10 and 2 I think in June or July of 2022 usually happens in 12 months or so But just recently we've seen the the 2 year the fastest drop its I think it's ever done since 2008 or 1981 I can't remember but it went from 5% in March 8th at 3.93. So the question then becomes The two year treasures come down does because of this does the market think that And especially everything that's going on that the Fed can't raise rates Do you think that this is the last of the 2550 basis point hikes and you think that's you know Higher for a longer narrative is dead. So Ben. What do we got here? Well, it's funny because one of the things we've seen happen many many times is the you know the the market not really believes what the Fed is saying and and we're kind of seeing that again, but there is a Slight difference this time then like say the last like you know ten times that the market didn't believe the Fed and That is the fact that there there's signs in the economy that there's some cracks showing right like they're clearly by you know by venturing out into the most Rapid increase in interest rates that we've really ever seen It was bound to have some effects and one of the things we've said many times is that it takes about a year For those interest rate hikes to fully be felt by the economy It takes about one year and now we're one year out from the first 25 basis point rate hike that occurred in March of 2022 So we still have you know several more months of Filling the full effects of the last interest rate hikes. So, you know, my opinion is the Fed They can raise I don't think they're gonna go with 50 I think that maybe 50 could have been could have been an idea But with with what happened, right recently with the financial sector, I don't I don't think there's a chance at all They're gonna be 50 basis points at the next meeting I think that the other question becomes are they gonna do 25 or are they going to just go with zero? You know, I'm actually I would say I'm of the opinion. They'll probably go with 25 is my guess But I think they might they might be able to get away with doing with doing zero as well And you know, I don't say that lightly I mean, I've been quite hawkish myself for over a year as to what the Fed needs to do But I do think there is some evidence that inflation is coming back down Now you're not gonna you're not gonna find that evidence in in the core CPI that we got and and some of the some of the other places but I Think if you if you incorporate the lag On on some of these sectors, I think they're gonna come down quite quickly and one of the reasons I think they're gonna come down quite quickly Probably in the latter half of this year is because I think there's a good chance. We're going to be in a recession Let latter half of this year or the the first part of 2024 at the latest and you showed the chart earlier you know the inversion of the 10-year the two-year yield are you you sort of alluded to it and and It's been inverted. Yeah, like if you go to Treasury yield spreads a right above the Treasury yield curve And then you you flip it over to the spread on the 10 to 10 and two year So yeah, flip it to the 10 and two year. So normally when it inverts We're not in a recession and right so that this is the thing is like people say well Oh, well the the the Treasury these yields they've inverted therefore. It's a recession. It's not true Remember, it's always upon the uninversion is usually when the recession occurs and and it hasn't happened yet But it's moving up quite quickly and So I think that the Fed there's a good chance They've already done enough damage to send us into a recession like I think it's possible that the damage has already been done and Given the lags of monetary policy. It might take us another three to six months to fully feel the ex of that so I think they're probably going to go with 25 and then They might go with it. Let's put it this way if they if they go at 25 at the next meeting Then I think they're only going to really be able to go 25 one more time after that Is my guess because I don't think with the with the political pressure that will be mounting especially after this most recent Scare with a run on the banks. I don't think they're going to be able to go too much higher But I think where where the market is is really disagreeing with the Fed right now is the rate cuts You know, I mean there if you look at the probabilities on on the rate cuts The the market is saying that the Fed's gonna cut rates in June. I mean, you know The Fed has been clear nice that they have no intention on cutting rates in June And so what I think is going to happen is The Fed might hold out longer than people think and and we're basically just going to be begging for them to cut, you know and and by the time they finally do I You know, hopefully inflation that they've broken the back of inflation And I think there's already some signs of that in some sectors But in other sectors the signs really aren't there yet, but then if you court if you incorporate the lag You know press so the reason we go into a recession normally is just because the Federal Reserve does too much They they become too hawkish and and they push us into a recession And I think that that's what you're going to see play out this time as well. And and by the time they cut Why do they cut is because they they they've they've broke something So the reason the market is saying they think the Fed's gonna cut in June is because they think the economy is gonna fall apart between now and then You know, right? Because otherwise why would why would the market disagree with the Fed? I mean Powell literally just came out this past week in front of Congress and set He said that they're gonna go higher for longer and he even insinuated that with incoming data They might even raise the pace back to 50 now I think if if if he had given this testimony this week I don't think he would have said that because it would have been after the stuff with the You know Silicon Valley bank Silicon Valley bank, but the market is clearly saying, you know The market thinks something bad is gonna happen You know between now and June and then they're saying well because this bad thing is going to happen The Fed is going to be forced to cut and and now we're finally I think we're I think we're in a new phase of the cycle right now Like I think we've transitioned and I think you can see it in crypto as well you know the altcoins the more speculative plays are bleeding back to Bitcoin and I Think that we're gonna see we're gonna see just how much Powell meant what he said you know higher for longer because You know he the the market's expecting cuts in June. I would suspect we like and I know this I'm gonna say I think we're probably gonna get a cut this year But I don't I don't know if it's gonna come as early as June But I do think that at some point later on this year. We're likely gonna see a cut Just be I mean just because the the problem out and the economy is going to be screaming for it Let's just hope that inflation is under control between now and then because if it's not then it would likely it would might it might make The Fed go further but furthermore if inflation is not under control between now and then then it would it would likely just lead to a Period similar to the 70s where you get inflationary waves and and you know We had an inflationary wave and then if if the feds forced to cut before inflation is curtail Then we can have another inflationary wave in the next cycle like let's say out in 2025 2026 and that's something we really want to avoid So that's kind of where I am those are my thoughts in the matter. Hopefully that answered question Yeah, so I'll so I'll say like this like the the 25 basis points It could be so I guess the question I have was would be for guys this is do you think that if we have if it's only 25 basis points is that enough or do you think that that pal has to go further or do you think like look This is as good as gonna be and it's just gonna be this for like a long time as far as inflation because like what Ben said I don't think we're gonna get inflation under control anytime soon guy. What do you think? Yeah, I agree with Ben. I think and and let's of course remember, you know Okay, we could be staring down the barrel of of the economy breaking of a really bad recession But runaway inflation is way way worse than you know than than anything pretty much a recession can Controvered us. I think so. I think that's worth bearing in mind I I too think probably at 25 a 25 point rise at the at the meeting next week That would that would kind of round off inflation at five round off rates at five percent, right? so The the kind of headline inflation number at the moment is Six percent so I wonder whether the Fed's best move is is to raise at the next meeting Bring us up to five and then keep it at that figure keep it at five percent keep rates at five percent for as long as they possibly can At least until that headline inflation figure comes down because the drop Okay, the drop to the feds two percent target is that's a long way to go But the drop to five percent so rates are in line with inflation. That's a lot more doable on the face of it I think so I wonder whether I think there's a good chance that that that could be The strategy that that they're gonna take bring us up to five and then see if they can at least get inflation down to the same level as Rates and then perhaps they can talk about they can talk about dropping rates after that Yeah, and we would talk we were talking off air when we before we came on You know just what a just what a tough situation Jerome and and the rest of the feds are in at the moment because whatever they do if they if they pause rate hikes If they write if they raise by 25, even if they even if they were to bring rates down Which obviously isn't gonna happen at this meeting, you know, they're gonna cop it from from someone I think though I think fed I think the feds credibility is Important though and that's something I'm kind of factoring in as well and I wonder whether to pause now Would be seen as kind of as reactive rather than proactive You know Jerome has said time and time again as Ben said, you know that that His testimony in front of the Senate banking committee was was pretty forthright, you know He was talking about higher for longer there Obviously, this was before the events of the events of last week and over the weekend But I think I still think fed credibility is really important because as we were discussing earlier They lost that credibility. They they suffered a real dent to it because of Ray transitory inflation So is this their chance to get it back? Is this their chance to to can be seen to be controlling the narrative and going we're not going to just react We're not gonna panic and and stop these rate hikes and take our take our eye off the ball when it comes to inflation Just because you know something in the system appears to be breaking because I mean, that's what they Jerome has said, you know, he's prepared to push the economy that far He prepared to break something in order to beat inflation and something's broken And I I think probably staying the course is is something that it is what he'll really want to do Yeah, you know what so all the things we just talked about I just was thinking about this because if drum's gonna come out, I forgot I want to say with Senator Eisen, I forgot it was some lady who Who was asking? Drone Powell and they said why is two percent your goal? What does that do for my constituents? Explain to me how this works out and he was kind of fumbling around like well with two percent It's kind of important But the main thing I took out of this like his rambling of like three minutes was this it's all a confidence game And if we don't put confidence into the markets Then people will distrust and they will move away and then of course that that leads to a collapse So I think like in all these things that we're talking about let me just get you throw you guys a quick question answer How you want to if this is just a confidence game? What if we could just move the narrative and go hey three percent's not so bad and We'll just we'll keep it going like that not a big deal We'll get over it where the we're the most powerful nation in the world If you could shape it like that could could people just go well, I guess it's okay and move move forward Anybody want to take that ridiculous question? Well, I mean a lot I think that would be I think that would be a terrible move I think three percent as soon as people see the target is is movable as soon as people see the target is Arbitrary or whatever then I think you have confidence going and I think that's why Jerome's is so you know bangs on about the 2% target So much is yeah, it is a confidence game But again, it's about it's about credibility and I think as soon as you lose that you're in It's a slippery. So if the target moves once It can move again, right 3% 4% 3 and a half, you know, where do you So yeah, I think I think the target. I think credibility is important. Sorry, Ben. I talked over you there Oh, no, it's fine. I Yeah, I mean, I think that people have speculated on that for a long time and every single time pal gets asked He says no like we're not we're not gonna we're not gonna change our mind on this I mean, I suppose they they could be forced to but I think the most likely Answer is just that their goal is to go back to 2% and and not to change that because I mean again, you know, I mean The higher inflation is only gonna hurt people more in the long run It's gonna make things more unaffordable and and so I think you have to get back to 2% We'll see if again. Well, Ben, since you're up there and we're talking about inflation and we're talking about the the Upcoming potential recession not saying that's what it is a lot of a lot of the proponents and a lot around a lot of the Crypto area said this look, this is the bull run, baby We're back and we're gonna start from here and it's gonna keep going up So the question I have is this I know you believe that that there is a recession coming Can crypto get through that recession and then I'm also gonna challenge you on this one What about the old adage selling selling may and go away? Is that also an option on the table if you think that in q3 q4 we have a recession? Let me freeze it like this. Okay. First of all, this happens every cycle We always get ahead of ourselves. We did in 2015. We did in 2019 as well. Yeah, I don't really see it I don't really see it being any different this time With that said, I think this the the the stage is being set for another bull run in Crypto just based on all the events that we're going through right now. I mean it. I think it is bullish for crypto But the the the part that we have to get through is the recession, right? It was the same thing with the dot-com crash You know look back 20 years ago tech stocks were Look, I mean we can look at things now right 20 years later And can you can anyone imagine the world without some of the giants that that are from the giant tech companies? You can't right like they're they're so intertwined with everything that we do But despite their potential They still went down in one more leg Because of a recession right actually they went down another leg after that but I that could have been because of the um some of the geopolitical things that went on back in 2001, but um, I I think that the stage is being set for a crypto bull run And I think crypto is probably going to go through some type of a renaissance I'm going to guess in 2024 Is when it's going to start because I think it'll come after the the rate cuts is when the renaissance for crypto begins And and you can see this is already happening right now if you look closely at at the the if you look closely at bitcoin And and the dominance of a bitcoin and you look at all bitcoin pairs You can see that altcoins are bleeding back to bitcoin right now So there's right now what you're seeing is this flight to safety if you think about bitcoin as your safety net in crypto, I mean, I think bitcoin and cash, but If bitcoin's this flight to safety, that's why I think that's why the dominance is going up We saw the same thing last cycle as well And and that's honestly a sign to me that the fed is finally having the desired effect that they want to have Is is removing liquidity from the system Um and and now that liquidity is being removed these altcoins are having troubles keeping up with bitcoin And again, we saw the exact same thing last cycle And so the are and if you go up to include stablecoins click on no up there Yeah, click on no Um, do you see what I'm saying? Yeah, so we got so bitcoin includes stablecoins. No Yeah, you can see it's already it's basically a 51 and it's likely going to go a lot higher. Um So You know, I I think And this is you know, by the way, this is good for the altcoin market in long haul because once we get to a higher dominance That's when you can that's when the dominance has more room to go down and the altcoin market can go up again um so I I don't I don't I don't think we're we're getting into a a sustained bull run right now Not as I mean you could call if you call 2019 a bull run Right, then you could be already call this one as well But I don't think this is the run that's taking us to new highs. I think we're gonna have one more scare um One more and I'm guessing with with bitcoin anyways with altcoins Who knows how many we'll have but with bitcoin, I think we're gonna have one more scare I think it's probably gonna come the latter half of this year and then And then we'll be off. I think we'll be off to the races I mean, we're gonna have so many things going for us by the end of this year We're gonna have likely we're gonna have rate cuts by the fed Which again when they cut rates is not the most bullish thing in the short term But for equities, but for crypto For crypto normally bottoms before equities if you look at like 2018 If you look at at march 2020 I believe crypto bottoms before equities and so Yeah, I think by the end of this year and early next year We're gonna have these rate cuts which short term might not be the most bullish thing But you fast forward three to six months. They are they're usually pretty bullish You're gonna have the bitcoin having in sight And uh, yeah, this is a a good chart to show that normally when the fed pivots, it's not a good thing But why you have to think why is it not a good thing? It's because normally when they pivot they broke something and and then they have to then they just have to You know flesh the money with with liquidity again It it can take, you know, it can take a little while to sort of see I mean, look if it can take if it can take a long if it can take like six or 12 months to Fill the effects of rate hikes then it can it can take a while to fill the effects of rate cuts as well and and and you know looser monetary policy, so I don't I don't really think we're you know, we're we're heading to new highs this year. I think we're gonna continue To to face these macro headwinds, especially the recession But on the other side of the recession, you know, you look at the nasdaq and look what happened on the other side of the recession, right It up and to the right, you know, I mean, yes We had the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 but it was up and to the right for the next 20 years So I think, you know, I know everyone calls me super bearish But I I would I would argue that there's been plenty of reasons to be bearish, you know for the last, you know, 14 15 months um Late this year early next year I think I think we go through a crypto renaissance But I think we have to go through the recession first which is likely going to happen And then on the other side of that I think crypto is going to be stronger I think bitcoin bitcoin and ethereum will be stronger than they were before because they'll no longer be able to point to the fact that We've never experienced a recession, right? So once we've experienced one and bitcoin still exists. It's like, well What's your excuse now? You know, like what's your excuse now is the coin still still here? so It's going to have an effect on the altcoin market more so and um I think you're going to see some altcoins die off and and I think just like the dot com crash coming out of that recession What what did you have to see before the next bull run? You had to see real world utility So that's where I think we're headed. Um, I think this is a necessary part and and it'll do it'll go a long way I think in in purging the garbage from the crypto verse And we should be we should be better off for it, you know in about in about 12 months Yeah, and then guy before I move on Ben's got this video altcoin reckoning and he goes over the history of some of the top tens That you will never hear again over over the years in this video and why there's an altcoin reckoning So that's the great video guys coin the cbdc one But guy so the same thing here And is this Is this the bull run happening? Can we go through it? Or there's something else to like you just like well or whatever and then here's another question I'll tag on to you. Is this what you want to see? For your portfolio. Would you like to see us go lower? Well first up. Yeah, I think Ben Ben said he's had plenty of reasons to be bearish We've had plenty of reasons to be bearish over the last 14 to 15 months. I think he said I would I would add to that and say we've had plenty of reasons to be bearish over the last 7 to 14 days Um, you know, we've been the the crypto industry in the u.s. Which let's face it Let's remember is crypto's largest market by a long way The the crypto industry there had been effectively set back 10 years in banking terms It's being locked out of the banking system Um But a coordinated action by the administration. There's absolutely no doubt about that Signature it's becoming clear was was taken out deliberately, you know, because of its crypto connections So there are some huge headwinds for the industry there in terms of banking. Let's not forget the um The sec is well's notice on paxos that 30 day period. I think has expired now So, I mean what happens now is the sec going to sue paxos over b usd Are they going to go after some other stable coin issuer? Um, you know, they could use the events over the weekend with usdc That could be, you know, that could quite well be a precursor to something worse so Yeah, I I don't I completely I completely agree with with ben's timeline. I long term I'm extremely bullish, but in the short term. I think we have some huge hurdles to overcome and you know And then that's that's without even touching upon things like uh, high rates and and and all the rest of it And all the kind of macro factors just the crypto specific factors In the u.s. And elsewhere, I think are worrying enough. There are good things on the horizon for crypto But the time frame is a bit longer than I think a lot of people are thinking, you know It's not I don't see it being in the next or three or four months or so In the next, you know until kind of until next year When things have when things improved and of course, we're also seeing things like exchange inflows are climbing We've seen a lot of um, even btc heading to exchanges Recently, which I think is is something I'm going to be keeping an eye on In answer to your question. Is this what I want to see? In terms of my portfolio Yeah, I guess so I want to you know, I want I want the opportunity to to pick up more I I kind of I wish I'd kind of picked up a bit more In the wake of in the wake of ftx, you know, when it planned when bcc went down to what was it around 17k And I kind of I held off a bit because I thought well, this could this could well go lower I mean hindsight is a wonderful thing, isn't it? But yeah, I think and and this is this is the thing to remember a bear market is First and foremost a wonderful opportunity for you know for the people who are Prepared to look at fundamentals. We're prepared to look at these things long term and are crucially prepared to be patient because you know, the patient are the ones who win out in the end so Chance of a new bull run in the next, you know, imminently Very low. I think wow I didn't Sorry, I was just flabbergasted. I didn't know the the outflows We're we're going that that's strong excellent. So I will just I'll just kind of finish it up like like this This was that it was the comments Go Solway was on kickco news and he he thinks I was like listen to him because you know, he's got a he's got a good outlook and And he's a little bit. Uh, he's like he's kind of like Ben He's like uh people say oh you're such a bear, but he's like no I'm just bearish right now, but I'm bullish in the long term and he talked about he said look He goes sessions coming into some problems 13k and we bounce up and you know Who knows if that's true, but one of the things he did mention on Just to piggyback on what a guy was talking about is that hey, you know if it goes down Where's the you know, maybe where where's the money going to flow into? This is all the money in the world every little square is a hundred billion dollars This is crypto one is at 244 So when I take a look at this I'm just like, you know, I just think there's a lot of room to run for the for the crypto space I don't know if it's gonna happen right away But uh, that's what I uh see coming forth and then this one This is the answer to your question guy I fixed $10 haircuts this made no sense And what it was what it was was this the whole thing that we just talked about the crypto versus banks the cbdc's the rate hikes and everything else It's a narrative pushed on us And if you get it if you have a narrative There's certain ways that you can win and in those winnings that you're talking about is how you frame everything So for business it's the same thing. How do you win? You went on price you went on quality You want an availability you went on ease So this is an old story about Uh barber that was opened up for years and years years Something opened up right next to him for ten dollars And he lost most of his business and all he had to do was just say this Look, I'll fix $10 haircuts because those guys suck. So it's the same thing here when we talk about Uh crypto and digital assets. We have to say, okay, the cbds are coming out and yeah, they're really easy and really You know simple to use but just remember that in the bank runs this and this and this can happen Okay, yeah, it's a bit more difficult for for the dexes But look you're going to be the one that that's in control and it's super important because what could happen Well, we don't know yet, but these are things so if we control the narrative, which is what politicians are great on That's where everything changes. So this will leave me to my last piece mentality There's everything going on How do you keep your your sanity guy? I'll start with you because right now It seems like everything's imploding. But how do you do it? Yeah, before I answer that rob can I that that thing about haircuts Reminded me that especially $10 haircuts. Do you know that this week is the 10 10th anniversary 10 year anniversary Of the of the haircut from the banks in Cyprus Do you remember that where they were where they all went? They all piled into uh to greek bonds, I think and when greece restructured his debt that all these Cypriot banks Were just staring into the abyss and they had to negotiate alone with um, I think it was mostly with with with germany I think the i and f was involved as well and That you know that they pumped billions into to Cyprus to keep it afloat but all All Cypriot bank account holders had to take a haircut as well. So I think if you had under 100 000 euros it was 6.75 percent and if you had over 100 000 euros, it was 10 percent or 9.9 or one of the two and This was the moment and I think it was around that time that bitcoin This was this was a demonstration of just what banks can do. Just how unreliable untrustworthy they are And it was around that time that bitcoin. I think saw one of its largest ever increases in percentage terms it went from like $45 to $250 well over that there's something in in just in just a few weeks. Um So yes, sorry Completely completely sidetracked the conversation there, but it was just haircuts I was like that was that was what I was reading about earlier haircuts. Um a different kind. How do I How do I keep myself? calm During times like this during all this craziness. Well I think one of the big I I think the biggest freedom perhaps in the future Will be the freedom to switch off the freedom to Go out and touch something real touch some grass enjoy nature because I think We get as our lives get more and more digitized as the internet sucks us ever in as we spend more and more time On our phones as the metaverse, you know take shape all these sorts of things I think it's I think real life. I think breathing fresh air things like that Just being able to having the freedom to be able to put your phone down and walk away from it all for A few minutes a few hours is going to be one of the most precious things and That's already what I try and do I was thinking to myself over the weekend, you know, when everything was kicking off If I'd gone out into the desert here in Dubai without my phone for the weekend if I'd gone on Friday afternoon And come back Sunday evening. I'd have been none the wiser. I'd have had a lovely time. Um, I wouldn't have All this all the craziness would have would have passed me by so Yeah, that's how I that's how I sort of keep myself sane I just I switch off because you know as I always say the markets will be there when I come back They never go. They never go anywhere. They never sleep. So Yeah, I think I think the idea just switch off and walk away from it all go and go and watch something growing I'm growing tomatoes at the front of my House here in Dubai at the moment and it just fills me with Fills me with joy every morning and evening when I when I see them. So that's my answer. Yeah, go go analog Perfect easy easy to say hard to do but if you can just step away, it's the best thing Ben same thing. How you keeping your sanity with your four kids and constantly being sick and different problems with the markets Probably I probably don't The in 2018 when I didn't have like a channel, you know the way I would keep my sanity dealing with crypto was I would Honestly, I would just not look at it for like three months at a time That's pretty good. I mean, you know, I think there was a period from like March or something of 2018 March or April until like August or September About about six months where I barely even looked at the charts I mean, I was also, you know, in you know, doing other things at the time and I was distracted but Yeah, about six months and and so I think that's probably one way that that people can can get through all this stuff Is, you know, you can always you can always come up with a strategy, right? Whether it's a dca strategy or whatever and and and they just kind of forget about it for a while You know, and that's that's honestly how I've gotten through it in the past Now this time I don't really have the luxury of doing that because I of course I you know and talk about crypto on a daily basis But yeah, I mean, I think like you're just getting out doing stuff with friends with family That's what I I mainly do But yeah, maybe maybe maybe these these these times do you chip away at my sanity sometimes? Yeah, exactly well said and I'll just tell everybody like this Try to control the things that you can change and don't worry about the things that you can't And there's a lot of things in this market that you cannot so just step away. You'll be a lot happier I know it's easy to say and hard to do but I got to tell you Uh, I had a couple friends with the usdc situation. They're like, hey, I just lost a ton of ton of money I'm like, did you did you sell? Well, it's gonna go down to zero. I'm like You know what give it 24 hours. We'll see what happens and then all of a sudden like hey That worked out pretty well damn do anything. Yeah, because you can't control it So everybody that is it for today's show. Thanks for so much for stopping by we've gone We went pretty long almost 55 minutes, which uh, well, I guess that's about normal now. We'll do some some questions And uh, we'll go from there. Let's see And then we'll get out of here Smash and humiliate the like button before I wrench you I got a lot of wrenches on my on my channel That's just more fun. Let's see Humiliate the like button Waited waited dca. It's pretty good. And you know what? I will say one thing and that question I asked about selling me and go away I was thinking about doing these things because I'm like, you know We know the recession is coming. So I'm like, why don't you sell like 50% of my stuff because we know what's gonna happen and then I thought to myself I'm like Okay, well, I also thought You know, that's you know, bitcoin go to 150k and and and east would go to 10k last cycle That didn't work out. So even though we're pretty sure things are gonna happen. You never know I'm just gonna write it all out Uh for the next four year cycles and see how it comes That's the thing rob. It's like no one knows anything You know, we don't know you don't know what's gonna happen exactly We we have opinions, but you don't really know and so you have to you have to hedge Um, the things you don't know Dude, it's so true. Oh, this is a good one. I did like this one question of Ben Well, you continue the whale watching series on chain analysis, especially whale three, which became well for whatever it is now Yeah, um, I can do it. I how about this all the next video I make I'll do it on the whale watching series Nice. There was a good one Uh, any financial advice? No financial advice. That's the whole spun of the show Come to it entirely the wrong place Yeah, you're you're you're probably more wrong It's exactly how about this one vca daily or weekly guy Well, are you still averaging or no? Not at the moment, but when I do it'll be I think it'll be weekly. I just I haven't got the focus for for daily I you know, just I mean, you know, you can set it. Can't you you can automate it, but um Yeah, I think weekly's weekly's fine weekly's fine coming while coming up Ben. Are you buying any bitcoin now or are you Are you rarely getting into it? I so what I I just had him. I just had limit order set. Um at various like risk levels that I use back in 2022 um So those got filled and but but that's the thing like bitcoin is the only thing in crypto that I've bought in over a year Um, like I haven't I haven't touched anything like I haven't touched any ethereum or Any other alt coins like haven't been getting into any of that. So I yeah I mean bitcoin and then as far as daily versus weekly, I think daily is is too much for me to handle um I don't I don't know that it would make that much of a difference. So I would say the the the question for me is probably more So between weekly and monthly You know, because I mean even doing it monthly is Is I think fine, you know, so I disagree with both of you. I am dcaing daily and uh, that's why I love about this show. All right. So last question Uh, did they already cover the spf and intercircle stealing 1 billion? What? 1 billion each Someone was posting this in the in the comments earlier. I don't know what it's talking about I don't know if there is a headline this morning or not Um guys you're anything about that I I think I heard something about it. Yeah, but I mean I sort of Because I think the we've heard stuff like this before, you know, billion dollar loans before to him, isn't it? I yeah I must say I kind of Filed it away. I I I just see an spf fdx headline and it's sort of it sort of all merges into one really so I missed that a little bit, but um Yeah, I It's all just it's all just such a Such an ugly saga, isn't it? Can I can I ask one thing rob? I think um on this uh on this live streaming software that we're using Is there a way that we can tee up some sort of background fireworks for the day that ben announces that he has Bought something other than other bit coin because that's going to be Absolutely, that's going to be I think we should have fireworks going off in the background. Maybe champagne corks popping I can have well. This is this is mine when I jump in the pool when bitcoin hits 100k And okay, and I no problem absolutely no problem. I can make this happen at the at the touch of a button No problem. That's whatsoever I I've said before I think the uh The time to I think the altcoin market timing is probably going to be like q3 or q4 this year It was the same thing back in um Back in uh, the last cycle too is a lot of the alt because remember I'm more interested in when altcoins bottom against bitcoin not not necessarily the us dollar pairs and although their us dollar pairs Could easily go lower as well as they did in 2019 and 2020 But the whole point is is if you're going to put money in the cryptoverse The blue chip the blue chips make the most sense And if if the altcoin market is just likely going to bleed back to the blue chips And what's the point of putting it in the altcoin market because you're taking on more risk Uh, you're getting less reward and um, and so yeah, but I but I think that narrative could flip By by the latter half of this year Gotcha, and you know what uh, we got to get out of here But that was one thing that's I'm gonna say everybody watch this video because you you talked about just Denominating everything in bitcoin Uh, and how it bleeds against alts just watch that video link in the description You can check it out but guys we've won an hour. I know you got stuff to do so many we'll get out of here So again, thanks so much everybody for stopping by watch the video like and subscribe to these guys their channels in the in the description I mean, let's be honest. You probably do anyhow, but that's it. So thanks so much. We appreciate you. We'll see you on the next one See you next week guys