 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire Dot com where today we are previewing the wild card round of the NFL playoffs and talking about Alabama versus Ohio State with Nick Costos Of you better you bet. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power rank dot com and the national championship is set Alabama against Ohio State. We have the NFL playoffs beginning this weekend. It's a fun time to be a sports fan. How you doing? I'm doing great Yeah, it was an incredible game Ohio State and Clemson. I thought about sending off a snarky tweet about how Brent Venable should be fired Given what Ohio State did to that offense just like Don Brown got fired at Michigan Guys who I believe to be incredible defensive coordinators, but in this age of college football They're just getting trashed by better offenses. Yeah, and I don't know I mean, I guess it's somewhat their fault But this is just the way that football is going Nick Saban has talked about this You can't win with a great defense anymore like you could even five six years ago When you won a national title with Jacob Coker at the quarterback position, you can't really do that You need no league quarterback Justin Fields is an elite elite quarterback I'm not sure that he shouldn't be the first pick as much as I think Trevor Lawrence is fantastic But I'm not sure Justin Fields shouldn't be the first pick in the NFL draft And we saw we saw it on full display in that game well, I've seen some early mocks of the 2021 NFL draft and Not all of them have a jet that have the jets taking a quarterback at two and I'm shocked whenever I Like yeah the the idea the jets would not take I'm not even saying it has to be Justin Fields Zach Wilson, I think is also deserving of being the second overall pick I think they're both like if you give me them on a fresh rookie contract versus One year of Donald and the rookie deal plus the fifth year option I'm gonna take Justin Fields or Zach Wilson every time So I think that the idea they would not go quarterback there is is shocking to me I don't know. I mean these people know the draft better than I do You cannot bet on that yet The only thing that Fandall sportsbook has posted is Trevor Lawrence first overall, which you know, if you want some free money And the team to draft Trevor Lawrence again probably free money if you want that but I think it's it's weird because Justin Fields was bad in that Northwestern game but a his thumb was hurt be Northwestern's defense is really freaking good and See it was one game. I know the Indiana game was also not ideal But like this is a good quarterback and he's really also just like as a sports fan really fun to watch So I think that I'm glad that he did what he did because the discussion around Justin Fields after that Northwestern game It was way more negative than I thought it should have been Yeah, for sure. I mean he was kind of bad But but yeah, you know, I mean the other thing about that game and which also went through to the Clemson game Was just how dominant Ohio State's offensive line is yeah We can talk about the running back all you want But I'm not gonna say his name because I think the line Gets the credit. Yeah, and I see them doing a lot of that same thing again in this title game Yeah, it's gonna be a fun one We're gonna talk about that title game both with Nick Costos and in your covering the future So should be a fun one We've had Nick on the show several times always a fun discussion with him You can find him on Twitter at the costos check him out on you better you bet which is on radio calm We're gonna preview NFL wild card weekend and talk Alabama versus Ohio State as well with Nick here in just one second At first as a reminder as always make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well because that does help us out a ton We're moving to once weekly podcast now with the college football regular season being wrapped up just one game left Once weekly podcast through the NFL season and then once weekly from there on out as well But make sure you're subscribed to get the podcast right as they go up before we talk wild car weekend We got to go back to last week busy covering the past because we have both college football bowl games and the NFL to go through and An interesting week to say the least Covering the past So the most interesting part of last week was was pretty clearly the week 17 spreads and discussing motivation Which we'll get to in a second, but first we got to go through college football We had drew Martin on talking about the college football semifinals and the remaining bowl games Make sure you follow drew on Twitter at drew Martin bets He wanted Tulsa minus two and a half against Mississippi State Mississippi State actually closed at minus one for that game. That was super late movement right before the close I was Mississippi State's plus one at one point closed at minus one Mississippi State did win by two Tulsa scored late to make it a bit closer But Mississippi State just played well for the first time since probably like week one And got the cover and the win there drew one in San Jose state San Jose state minus nine and a half against ball state That one closed at nine the ball state came out fiery. They were actually 34 to nothing in that game They won 34 to 13. So a tough one there San Jose State had been Kind of a money-making machine for betters all year But then came out flat in the bowl game drew was on Cincinnati plus six and a half For some reason that closed at Georgia minus nine But Cincinnati probably should have won that game outright if not for some absurd clock management decisions by Luke Fickle They did still cover so drew got the win there drew got the win regardless But they could have won that game. So a good call on drew But like did you get to watch that game at all at Cincinnati, Georgia? I think I missed the parts. I mean, I saw how Georgia won in the end and yeah end up getting that extra safety, but Like if you have a lead you should try to use as much clock as possible Decrease or decrease the variance because you want the range of outcomes that came to be as small as possible Since then I did not get the memo and they lost as a result But regardless drew gets the cover there drew is in on the over for all this against Indiana It was at 66 and a half at that time did close at 67 Indiana just played really poorly early on. They were too busy complaining about the bowl game They got to care about the game apparently they had six points at the end of the third quarter Old miss they did their part offensively But Indiana did not Indiana had the Big 10 logo covered up on their jerseys because they felt Disrespected for not getting the citrus bowl and then they played like poo That allowed all miss during the clock in the fourth quarter and the game finished with just 46 points there So the under did hit Finally drew had UNC plus seven and a half against Texas A&M UNC got hit really hard by opt-outs Some of these were after we were accorded We knew that a couple of guys would be out but then a couple more jump ship after we recorded They were without most of their top wide receivers and both of their top running backs Texas A&M basically had no opt-outs outside of the running back So they closed at minus 10 you and say UNC did play tough early They were actually leading entry the fourth quarter They were up 27 to 10 or 27 to 20 with 11 minutes left But then Texas A&M closed things out on a 21 to nothing run to both cover and get the win there So good start for UNC but couldn't quite close the deal and Texas A&M did cover at seven and a half Regardless followed drew on Twitter at Drew Martin Betz. Yeah, so good that North Carolina game So when I think about teams that could potentially make the playoff next year I mean you can just start with the quarterback position and Sam Owl is is pretty impressive. I don't think the number is quite Yeah, I don't think the numbers have quite caught up yet, but like he's an impressive guy So when you're heading into the the 2021 football season, I think North Carolina is a is very interesting They clearly need to be a little bit better on the defensive side of the ball But Sam Howell is a guy to to look out for yeah this year 11.1 adjust yards per attempt. That's really good for a true. So I believe a true sophomore true That's that's really good. You don't see that often for true sophomores So he will definitely be a guy we'll discuss uncovering the spread next year too. Now Ed You had some bad opt-out luck because we talked about Florida, Oklahoma, and we knew Kyle Pitts was not gonna play So you have the over here at 70 and a half We knew Kyle Pitts would not play that was factored in but then after we recorded like six more wide receivers I know pits a tight end but like six different wide receivers opted out for Florida after we talked So the total close to 65. Yeah, but it didn't matter because Oklahoma put a 55 by themselves Finished with 75 total points. So really a good call by you Not sure where that would have been had Florida played their guys, but bad luck But a good result regardless. Well, I mean, I think every win is some combination of Process and luck. I think the process was a little bit less in this one given what happened with the opt-outs But but I still think there was a little bit of signal there, right? Because these were two offenses that could clearly get it done one of them didn't but the other one Was able to score enough points Yeah, I was a little bit surprised that it actually ended up going over when I checked the next morning But part of those opt-outs were Florida's defense a unit that wasn't particularly good to begin with so Oklahoma really took advantage of that Even late they were able to run the ball and and and still move the ball and score. So Yeah, a little a little luck, but but I'll take it. Hey, I mean wins a win So we'll take that for sure. So a good one by added there on the NFL side We have Brandon Caduola on to preview week 17 my colleague here at number fire You can follow Brandon on Twitter at Caduola 13 Brandon and I both had thoughts on the Cowboys versus the Giants He wanted the Giants plus three. I had the over at 45 and a half He got closing line value because the Cowboys closed at just one and a half point favorites total did fall to 44 at close And Brandon got the win here because the Giants won this game outright 23 to 19 the over was close. I was pulling for it They were at like I think 38 points in the third quarter The Cowboys were driving to try to take the lead late and that would have gotten to the over But Andy Dalton had other ideas through a pick really bad pick I think he thought it was fourth down But it was actually a third down at least, you know, baby by the way, he threw it It looked like he thought it was fourth down finish at 42 points So good for Brandon on that one bad on me and just a bad throw by Dalton, which made me very I shouldn't have thrown it. I mean, it's just It happens. It really seemed like he thought it was fourth down, but whatever Brandon also had a big hit on the over 56 and a half for the Titans versus the Texans the Titans defense. It ain't great It closed at 56, but it went way over 79 total points in this game Titans won a 41 to 38 So another good call for Brandon there and we'll talk plenty about that Titans defense with Nick as well the final one for Brandon was Washington and Philly over 42 and a half and We know what happened there it closed at 44 so the market agreed, but the Eagles pulled at Jalen Hertz So there were just three points the entire second half not just the fourth quarter the entire second half So 34 total points there, but still a nice week for Brandon But and that was one of the games that wound up being pretty crazy this week You also had the bills against the Dolphins talking about that game And it was not on the books when we were talking it reopened at the bills minus three There were some late news on Sunday which gave us white being inactive and the Dolphins closed at three point favorites It was four at some books actually to but the bills played their starters into the second half They legitimately were pushing for the two seed. They were up 28 to six at halftime. They won 56 at 26 and That was just one of the games last week where We talk about motivation a lot with regards to betting NFL games in week 17 but the sports books are accounting for that in a lot of their lines and Like the the Tennessee game they were I think seven and a half point favorites Houston had been eliminated the entire season effectively They've been playing hard though and if you had realized that like they were over accounting for incentive You might have been able to get on Houston there The the bills game against the Dolphins was the same thing Cleveland against Pittsburgh a massive line there It seems like maybe that's a lesson for week 17 next year is making sure you're not Overcompensating for for motivation when the sportsbook are already doing so For sure, I mean look the the markets are the gold standard for prediction in in sports, right? There no no one's doubting that but I thought there were four games I thought the market was crazy on Cleveland is a ten-point favorite Miami is a three and a half point favorite Washington went from you know push push type territory to a six-point favorite and then Chargers end up being a seven-point favorite against the chiefs who would who didn't have anything to play for so the chargers covered So markets were right on that the Washington game was kind of interesting because it landed it landed on six Which is kind of where the market was at I think the market closed at six and a half But obviously we all know what happened in that game with with Doug Peterson pulling Jalen Hertz Yeah, I think it's a crazy move. I you know, I don't I can I get what people are saying Hertz was not exactly lighting it up. I think he had 70 passing yards the entire game He was seven of 20 passing. Yeah, and I think like yeah, the bulk of them came on that one past our sega wide side on one of those jobs that it did score so Anyways weird stuff happening there, but like those other two games like I Mean the market was really off on those right. I mean really over overlooking The the the motivation aspect, I mean Pittsburgh not gonna at least try to play even if they're playing with Mason Rudolph I mean they were missing TJ Watt and Cameron Hayward as well. And then I mean, I don't know I mean, I've been talking about how bad Miami's defense has been all year and The market's going that far without any definitive news that Josh Allen wasn't playing So yeah, I thought it was a little bit of an overreaction look the markets are the gold standard, right? When when that market closes that's gonna be one of your best estimates of how the game is gonna turn out But I thought I thought week 17 was a little bit nuts. Yeah, just keep that in mind for next year Try to spot over reactions to motivation because again books are accounting for that We don't want to over account. We don't want to double count effectively with regards to that My bet for last week outside of the over for Cowboys giants was the Packers minus five and a half against the Bears It closed at four and a half and there was a lot of buzz around the Bears Which was kind of surprising for me because the Bears have been inflated by an easy schedule the Packers Had a lot on the line. They had to buy at stake like they needed a win to get that by and the Packers Scored twice late. They won 35 to 16. So pretty easy cover there The Bears were covering most of the game, but I never really felt in danger with this bet I felt good about it the entire way just because the Packers were still pushing They still needed to push because Seattle was playing well. So I felt good about the Packers the entire way and I was a bit surprised with the Optimism around Mitchell Trabisky We're not seeing the same optimism this week with the markets with regards to the Saints game But I was a bit surprised with the way that one went, but I'll take the win for sure Just surprising to see the interest around the Chicago Bears who had played the Texans the Lions the Vikings and Somewhat else really bad over their previous four games like well I've forgotten what had happened when they faced the Packers with Trabisky starting the first time Yeah, I mean I think part of the Bears problem is that I think the defense is pretty good But they've given up a lot of explosive plays Because they rank a lot worse when you look at yards per play both passing and rushing then they do by success rate So I mean I still think there's reason to back the Bears I mean not that I'm too interested in it, but I think they can be better on that side of the ball than what we've seen right and they won't get tested in that for sure this weekend Against the New Orleans Saints We're gonna get to Nick Costos and break down wild card weekend here in just one segment first the NFL playoffs I've officially arrived in Fandall Sportsbook is making sure you have the opportunity to get in on the action with some of the best Possible odds on the market right now New users can wager up to five dollars on any team to win their wild card Divisional or conference championship game at plus 2,500 odds that is right a five dollar bet on any team to win any game before the Super Bowl Win you a hundred and twenty five dollars wild card weekend is just a few days away So download the Fandall Sportsbook app and make your first deposit to see the enhanced odds today Must be 21 plus and present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois Colorado, West Virginia, Tennessee, Iowa or Indiana New users only must wager on designated boost market deposits are acquired max bonus is a hundred and twenty five dollars See full terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or in Colorado call 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in West Virginia visit 1 800 gambler.net in Indiana call 1 800 9 with it or in Tennessee call the Tennessee Red Line 1 800 889 989 let's bring on Nick Costos now find him on Twitter at the costos and find him on you better you bet on radio Dot-com previewing NFL wild card weekend in Alabama versus Ohio State Covering the present Let's bring Nick Costos into covering the spread to preview wild card weekend in the NFL Nick You're a busy guy. So I appreciate the time. How you doing today doing well guys You know we're at the home stretch here for all of us You know Jim I think for you it's different because you you I gotta tell you I feel like I kind of want to be like your life manager because I feel like you do too much like we got to scale Your workload down a little bit because you got all over the NASCAR stuff You're on you're on everything man for me My life's gonna get a little easier in a month's time for you I we got to get Jim some rest some some well-needed R&R here So I'm grinding for another month and then I think for a lot of us in this pace Life gets a little easier once football ends maybe not for my man Jim Son is but certainly for me So another thing in the NASCAR is easy NASCAR is easy It's one thing to break down per week like if you had one NFL game per week It'd be fine. You wouldn't stress about it. If you have one NASCAR is to break down. You're fine So NASCAR is actually not a big burden. I consider today Yes, or Monday through Start a baseball season to be my off season despite this car being there Like I live a great life for the next three months You know we had a vaccine to be a better month, but you know whatever, you know I can I can live with it for sure. So I'm actually in my off season. I'm good. I'm grand You are not quite there yet though. It's a it's a busy time for you But I'll show you how much Jim Son is works, right? Like I feel like the load has been lifted this week because I don't really need to deal with college football It's one game Gotta take you know so but Nick I mean you're you're definitely into all the NFL and and looking forward to talking about that all today Yeah, so yeah the fact that I don't have to Handicap 16 NFL games like it's like the amount of the amount of thought that goes into you guys know this because you guys do it too The amount of thought that goes into this like to every game that gets played It's like so extraordinary and like that's not to be like that like we're like superheroes or anything that I'm a superhero But it's just like it's a lot and the fact that like we're coming down the home stretch is certainly fantastic And then of course then we NBA and college basketball It never really stops which is which is awesome because it's better than the alternative But yeah very happy that we're now in January for sure by week five. I'm ready for January That's that's the point I get to you know, I'm ready for a smaller slate by that point So let's dive in here and talk about all six games for this weekend starting off on Saturday with the Colts and the bills right now the bills are six and a half point favorites total here is 51 the bills going to the playoffs on a heater Nick. What do you see with this game between them and the Colts? I I back the bills a lot down the stretch of the season like and I I'll quote pro sports better Rob Bezolo who was on my show you better you bet on Monday And he's 100% right that the value on bed like the value with betting Buffalo is unfortunately now gone Like I bet them a couple Saturdays ago on the road in Denver minus five and a half like ridiculous line They wouldn't want 48 19. They killed them minus seven on the road in New England's a week 16 ridiculous They absolutely slammed the Patriots and I bought I bought them at plus four at the very end like right before kickoff against the Dolphins You know a bit of a leap of faith They're not knowing how much Josh Allen would play but then they put a 50 burger up on the Miami Dolphins now No such discount coming this week with the Buffalo bills laying nearly a touchdown against Phillip Rivers and the Colts and I'll say this I Don't think I would bet Indianapolis. I don't think I would bet the Colts here It makes me nervous thinking about Phillip Rivers in the cold Probably having to come from behind here and the Buffalo defense has been largely a lot better And I think people will kind of point to well Buffalo over the course of a full 16 game regular season The run defense is not great But the run defense has actually been pretty good over the course of the last month or so or six games or so So I think Buffalo's defense is quietly improved and that really I don't think the market had caught up to that largely And I still don't necessarily think it's caught up to it here I think this is more a reflection of of the bill's offense here So I don't anticipate this a game where the Colts can kind of roll out of bed without Anthony Costanzo without you know Lorraven Clark also on the offensive line and just run with 250 yards with Jonathan Taylor Like they did on Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars the thing that makes me nervous about the bills. I Don't expect Cole Beasley to play on Saturday Which is a big deal obviously because you want the full a gun potential right the Josh Allen offense here with Beasley and Gabe Davis And John Brown and Stefan dig So I don't expect them to have Cole Beasley and then Stefan digs apparently in practice on Tuesday. He's limited He's grabbing his side. He's maybe got an oblique injury So definitely something to monitor here where digs is not a hundred percent I can't advocate laying six and a half with the bills here in a spot where I know a lot of Professionals are gonna be on the Colts because I think people feel like they have a number edge on Indianapolis here Plus the six and a half for me. It's probably gonna be bills or pass I generally like to long tease if I can which would be to tease obviously through seven and three I may end up guys breaking that rule I may just tease Buffalo down to like minus a half and get Buffalo Basically to win the game as part of a teaser leg this weekend. So that's kind of how I see this game playing out I don't think I'll bet the Colts But I don't know if I can lay the number with the bills if Stefan digs is not a hundred percent and they don't have Cole Beasley Awesome, let's move on to Rams and Seahawks An interesting game because Jared golf has not yet been ruled out John Wolfer had one start last week Vandalsports books had has hawks by three and a half. So leaning a little bit that way against the market consensus What do you think Nick? I think that this is the most interesting game of the week in terms of a side, right? because it feels like The opening line four and a half was like books kind of being like, okay Let's kind of put this out there in no man's land because we don't know who the Rams quarterback is gonna be Right, let's put this at four and a half. So we don't get burned basically because I think if it's golf The number is probably three and if it's Wolfer'd the number is probably six So then they put it somewhere in the middle right in no man's land at four and a half and I think the fact that the number has come down to three and a half to me indicates and I could be wrong and Pro-betters could be wrong because You know, not everyone's right all the time or else, you know Sports you'd have a private island, right? I think the number to me now at three and a half Would indicate to me that there is optimism about Jared Goff starting and playing quarterback in this game Limited in practice on Tuesday with a fractured thumb It is my expectation from kind of reading all the stuff that I've read that golf will play for the Rams on Saturday Could be wrong. I don't know that for a fact, but again the line moving to three and a half is that's not a John Wolford move that that's a Jared Goff move. So that's kind of I think where we're at with this game I'll kind of give you guys a hot take I like the Rams whether it's Wolford or golf So if the Rams announced today, we're taping this on Wednesday morning that John Wolford is the starter and the number goes to six That's what I think would happen. I think we'd see six I would bet the Rams if the Rams announced Jared Goff is starting and the number goes down to three I would bet the Rams. I I like this Rams defense versus Seattle offense matchup a lot And when we go back to the week 16 matchup, which I think a lot of people will point to which Seattle 120 to 9 and a very annoying game because I tease the Rams everywhere Like that was one of my biggest swings of the entire year where it's a pretty unlucky game for the Rams Where really could have scored a lot more a lot of empty red zone trips The Jamal Adams kind of shoestring tackle of Daryl Henderson going into the end zone I think really cost the Rams in that game So I think kind of a lot of people's thoughts are being clouded by what they saw in week 16 But the Seattle offense is I don't want to say it's broken because it implies that like Russell Wilson is in playing great I just think what they're doing is really dumb and like they call a championship football Like not only is Russ not cooking, but the kitchen is closed and like the powers out in the house It's ridiculous. I think what they're doing here and you put Jalen Ramsey and DK Metcalf They've got other good corners. You've got a good pass rush obviously here I think the Rams can keep it closed whether it's Wolford or Goff. I think if it's got the number should be under three I don't think it will so again if it's golf in the numbers three I'm betting the Rams if it's Wolford in the number six. I'm gonna bet the Rams on Saturday So if you're comfortable with the Rams at three and a half Are you holding off on firing on this line under the possibility? You can get it to six if they announce that Wolford is sitting or are you comfortable? Taking it now and taking that risk under the chance. You might not be getting the best line Oh, I already took the risk. I bet the Rams yesterday So if it goes up to six, I'll bet them again if it goes down to three Yeah, this this could end up being a disaster for me, but I've already kind of I've gone I've already planted my LA Rams flag in the ground to see how that goes Well, I'll talk about this later in the game later in the podcast, but I am on the same page with you So let's go Jared Goff get that thumb ready, baby. Let's move now to Tampa Bay against Washington Tampa Bay I don't know about that by the way, and I'm sorry I'm sorry to interrupt but like yeah if Jamal Adams doesn't play and I know McVay kind of expressed McVay is like I think he's gonna play I don't know if he's going to if Adams doesn't play I Don't necessarily mind Wolford because at least Wolford can move right and Adams is such a disruptor and golf can't really move Where if they don't have Adams to kind of like get that pressure, right? And he's like he's their best pass pressure. He's their best defensive end Yeah, right, which is crazy because he's a safety, but it's brilliant kind of the way that they deploy him I think it's really smart if he's not there. I think it kind of opens up opportunities for Wolford in the run game So I don't want to say that I'd rather have Wolford than golf if I want to bet the Rams But I don't think in all say and I could end up looking really stupid for this take and I acknowledge that I don't know that it's the worst thing in the world if that happens. Well, it's not just golf It's also Andrew Whitworth likely back this week. Also Cooper Cup was Allegedly a practice Tuesday, which would imply that he was a close contact and not a positive test So I think that bodes well for the Rams Tampa Bay seven and a half point favorite over Washington Total here is 44 and a half and we've seen some movement here towards Washington already in this game Do you agree with that movement and what's it read on this game? Um, all right. I don't think I can bet this game Sidewise, I don't even think I want to tease Tampa. I think Tampa is gonna win So like I want to say that I think Tampa will win this game I think Tampa will advance, but I do think that there is potential here For some major effery If you'll I will leave the curse words at the door here, but there I think the problem here If you could assume rational coaching with Byron left which Bruce Arians in the box I think you can make a strong case for Tampa here where if I think it makes sense And this is not to intimate that I kind of am a better, you know football mind than Arians and left Which I'm not but I think it would make sense right where the buck should kind of do what the Steelers did on that Monday night Game that Pittsburgh lost to Washington now Tampa can do it much better than Pittsburgh can and the Pittsburgh offense completely broken at that point, right? Where I think it makes sense where if you want to neutralize the Washington because this is what everyone's gonna say And they're right. How do you get to Brady rush for don't have to bring any extra pressure The Washington football team can do that with Chase Young Montez sweating company, right? Where if you're Tampa I would spread Washington out and this would be a Chris Godwin and an Antonio Brown and a Rob Gronkowski game Where even if Mike Evans doesn't play and he didn't practice on Tuesday He was at a walkthrough but the buck said like if it were a practice He would not have practiced where I think you could just dink and dunk your way down the field And I don't anticipate Washington being able to score a lot But with Arians kind of being as stubborn as he's been this year and I have been a critic of Arians this year like This could be a game where they're asking Brady to kind of like in the Rams game This is what they did and he was getting buried into the ground by the Rams pass rush now We know that Ali Marpet didn't play in that game Which I think kind of played into it a little bit But if this is gonna be a game where this is the Arians offense and Brady's holding the ball for four seconds to chuck it down The field I think he's gonna get buried and like he could turn it over and he could put the ball on the ground in Washington's defense could score here, so I Can't make a case to lay Tampa at this number. It's Washington or nothing for me unfortunately at the number I wouldn't even tease Tampa although. I think Tampa's win probability is high the way that I would look in this game is the under How's Washington gonna score like I think kind of like lost in the Washington pass rush versus Brady kind of part of the handicap How the hell is Washington gonna score? Alex Smith did not look good on Sunday night and I've made the case and we don't have to like get into that as with me as a Giants fan, but I think that the Jack would have beaten Washington on Sunday night But how Alex Smith looked in like the Eagles had to try to lose to not win the game Alex Smith didn't look good Terry McLaurin didn't look good I know he had the touchdown, but was like really an effective aside from that and if we know Tampa's run defense is really good So let's assume Antonio Gibson doesn't have a great game Then it's on Alex Smith to get the job done now. We've seen him get it done this year He was magnificent. No not great stats, but got certainly got the job done and played well in the Pittsburgh upset So there is some precedent for it, but that was a low-scoring game I think this will be a low-scoring game. There's a reason why this total is coming down. My play in this game would be towards the under I got a better number earlier in the week I would still play it at 44 and a half when I kind of brainstorm a final store and my score in my head I'm thinking something like Bucks 2314 Bucks 2316 and I know that 2314 would indicate the Bucks would cover I don't feel comfortable enough in that to bet it I don't know how Arians is gonna get his quarterback killed like I mean I completely agree with you, right? You have how I forget however old Brady is, but like of course you have to change your strategy against one of the best defenses In the NFL on Nick. Let's move on to the next game. We're going to Sunday We got Baltimore at Tennessee Baltimore is a three-point favorite Baltimore presents a lot of interesting challenges with their offense Tennessee's defense is terrible. What are you seeing in this game? You know The number of three and a half I thought was really interesting right the opener of Baltimore minus three and a half I kind of expected this to open at two and a half or three and my expectation was if it goes to two and a half It's gonna go right up to three I think it's fascinating that the number came down where it did and that's like for people and I know you guys know this But just for the audience, I'm sure you guys will say stuff like this, right? That is a a massive move to come off of three and a half to three like everywhere that Monday came in on the Tennessee Titans here I'm going to go ahead and plant my flag in the ground here on this game and say that It's not that I don't agree with the move because I'm not necessarily like rushing to lay three and a half at the Ravens three Obviously is a significantly better number to get with Baltimore. I Kind of think Baltimore is gonna kill Tennessee Like I think Baltimore could have earned rough shot on the Tennessee Titans here I know people will kind of point to the divisional round playoff game last year And then the win that Tennessee had earlier in the season over the Ravens now a couple factors come into play that I think will make this particular game A little different the wild the divisional round game last year I don't want to say Baltimore dominated the game because Tennessee did blow them out But Baltimore's offensive metrics were sick in that game They just couldn't convert a fourth down all the decisions that like could have potentially like gone for Baltimore Went against Baltimore in that game and you give Tennessee credit because the Titans did what they were supposed to do And they won the game and then in the game earlier this year You know Derek Henry, I think heading into the fourth quarter and overtime was averaging like 2.6 yards per carry And then he really got it going late and obviously had the overtime game winner But that's a Baltimore defensive line that was playing without a lot of their best-run defenders Kaleas Campbell Brandon Williams I think Justin med bouquet may have been out of that game as well So it's a healthier Ravens defense and this Tennessee defense like I don't think we can kind of Overstate how bad it is. This is one of the worst defenses in the league It's certainly the worst defense remaining in the play out of any playoff team This is the worst defense and with the way the Baltimore offense is humming right now like the Baltimore offense we can count on and it's like It's funny, right? There are a lot of teams where in the NFL if they're laying double digits Maybe you don't necessarily feel comfortable laying it when I see like Baltimore laying 11 and a half against a defense where they should score 40 I'm like, yes, please let me do this because they're going to roll it up They're averaging almost 40 points per game And I think actually it might be 40 over their last five games since Lamar came off the COVID list It's an offense that's rolling right now. How's Tennessee gonna be able to stop the run? How are they gonna be able to do it? How are they gonna stop Dobbins? How are they gonna stop Lamar in the run game here? I don't think they're gonna be able to they get killed by everybody and then we're starting to see Hollywood Brown Finally emerge mark Andrews has kind of been quieting flying quietly under the radar But certainly capable of having you know, a pretty decent game here and then on the other side back We like this Tennessee offense a lot But again, it's a Ravens defense that I think is gonna be different than the outfit we saw Tennessee kind of bludgeon earlier in the season here So I know it's kind of Counterintuitive what I'm saying here. We're like, I think Baltimore is gonna kill them But I wouldn't lay three and a half as a numbers play Baltimore minus three. I'll tell you what I wouldn't bet Tennessee I would not bet Tennessee at three. I will end up with it somehow some way I will end up with with a Baltimore ticket in this game And we're regarding the Baltimore offense You could point to matchups and the teams they face in that, you know If I gain stretch since Lamar returned, but this might be the worst defense they faced in that time Like I mean they they roll up on the Cowboys, but the Cowboys defense is just as bad as Tennessee So I think that it's justified to feel bullish about this offense and feel good about the Ravens here Let's move now to Chicago at New Orleans New Orleans nine and a half point favorite here The total is 47 and a half and this is a big number obviously But it's understandable why because the Bears offense when they finally faced a real defense again on Sunday came crashing back to earth and Really folded pretty heavily now. They're facing the Saints on the road. What do you see in this game? I think it's interesting, right that this number is what it is over over nine right now at Probable teaser protection would be my guess to keep this number at nine and a half can't get it down under three with the Saints I I don't think I would bet Chicago that being said, I don't think I'm necessarily racing to bet on the Saints at this number here I think the Saints wouldn't probability is extremely high I'd rather like kind of put the Saints on a in a money line parlay of some kind here rather than tease the Saints down here to Three and a half I'd rather tease them under three obviously, but I doubt we're gonna get that opportunity the play that I really like in this game I think this game can definitely go over. I would go over 47 The Bears defense and we've talked about this a lot on you better you bet the Bears have been an overplay for us over the course of the last month The only game the Bears had that did not go over over the last month was the Texans game and it took like an Extraordinary series of events in the second half to keep that game under the total I think they had 37 and a half and the game went under 46 for the game, which was insane That was not a fun one for me because I'd be over there So I think the Saints and keep in mind here, right? The Saints are expected to get Michael Thomas back here So the Saints are gonna have Breeze Camara and Thomas all on this game and Camara should be able to go with the game on Sunday Not on Saturday should be back with the COVID tracing So we should be able to get Alvin Camara here the Bears defense is not good And they've been getting shredded right by by decent to good offenses here I kind of think the Saints are gonna score 30 here And then it's like do I have enough faith in Mitch Rubisky and the Bears like potentially in garbage time to get me a Touchdown if I need it I do I think the total should be maybe like 49 or 50, which I know is not a huge jump But it's enough where I feel comfortable taking this over. So my play in this game would be over I think the Saints will win. I would not bet the Bears, but I also don't think I would bet the Saints if that makes sense Yeah, definitely sounds good. Let's go to the last game another interesting one Cleveland at Pittsburgh rematch of last week But with a lot of different characters Kevin Safansky is out with COVID as the playcaller Pittsburgh is now a six-point favorite What do you think of that line movement? Well, Ed, can I ask you a question as someone that I know is very involved in like the math side of this Because I'm very curious as to the answer, you know, Joe Batonio is not gonna play in the game We can kind of quantify What he means right to the game we can kind of handicap and say, okay This player is coming in to replace him. This is how it affects the Brown scheme This is how it could affect the Steelers defense. So at Pittsburgh is gonna try to do defensively We can kind of have like a good sense handicapping that How do you quantify like with what you do numbers wise the Browns not having their playcaller because I bet Pittsburgh early I got Pittsburgh laying for I feel good about that now certainly, but like what he How do we know like what what that means? I think it presents like a challenge that I Don't I don't know if this is a problem problem that can be solved because it's unprecedented So like do you feel confident and I don't think there's a bad answer? So I feel if you're like, I don't know I feel like that's a great. I don't know I think I've solved that problem I think our best guess is that it's worth the point because that's what we saw the market move I think it's not really worth anything. I don't really have a way of quantifying that but Fansky is is a run-first on early downs type of Playcaller and if whoever takes over says hey, let's try to throw the ball that could be worth a point In the opposite direction. It could be a worth a point for Cleveland. I don't think that's necessarily gonna happen I think even if they did that they're still gonna get pretty much stomped by a pretty good Pittsburgh Steelers defense So it's a hard thing for me to quantify Maybe that's a good off-season project for me, but Well, you know what God willing Ed God willing it won't be God willing it won't be an off-season project Because cuz cuz like we won't have any more COVID issues moving forward. So God willing that's the case You'll never have to deal with this again. So I don't I don't know man I think Pittsburgh is gonna win the game no matter what whether it's to Fansky or whether it's Alex van Pelt calling the place the Browns are are interesting right because The three weather games this year you had the wacky game in week 17 where the Steelers played all their backups You had a couple COVID games, right where the Browns are the week 16 game against the Jets The Browns more so than any team this year have played like these wacky games where do we really feel confidence? Collectively as a community in like who the Cleveland Browns are I don't necessarily know that I feel very confident in that but here's what I do feel confident in The Steelers are better. I think the Steelers are better than the Browns. So whether the numbers for whether the number six I would not bet Cleveland. I've got a better number on Pittsburgh. So I'm certainly not gonna lay six I think if you're gonna attack this game I mean you could potentially do a Buffalo Pittsburgh teaser Which is I know not a lot of value because you're not teasing through seven and three I think you could put the Steelers in a money-aligned parlay like you wanted to do like an AFC north I guess AFC north wouldn't be good because Cleveland's in it also and they would lose But like a rate if you want to a Sunday money I know stuff like this is not like advocated for necessarily but like just a ways to get around the mess here like for me like a Saints Steelers parlay would make a lot of sense money-aligned parlay makes a lot of sense on Sunday Put the bills in there if you'd like because I think Buffalo's win probability is high I don't know if they're gonna cover. I don't know if I would tease them So that's kind of how I would look to attack this game And I know parlays are kind of often frowned upon but listen with the craziness in this game I don't know how crazy it actually would be to do that. We talked about this with Ed Miller We had him on our show. He wrote the the book the logic of sports betting He likes parlays as long as the bets you're putting in the parlays are good individual bets If you think those are good individual bets it makes sense to do that because you can you know increase your margins So parlays as long as they are good bets are not bad necessarily So like like Steelers Steelers to win bills to win. I feel like it ain't to win If you think they're good individual bets good. Yeah, like I feel like all three of those teams if I had to if I had to bet I Think all three of those teams will cover the spread, right? But I don't feel confident enough in them covering to make the bet But I feel like they're all three win probabilities Buffalo, New Orleans Pittsburgh are all very high So I feel good about like a three team moneyline parlay with those three, right? Yeah Unfortunately, I felt the exact same thing about New Orleans last year in this same round That didn't work out. I Actually had the Viking well, I don't think you got Kyle Rudolph You got Drew breezed in that yeah Not only was breeze not the best starting quarterback in that game He wasn't even the best quarterback on his own team in that game against the Vikings. Yeah Well, I think I would say you got I would say you got Kirk Cousins in that game. Yeah, yeah, exactly Nick we gotta let you go here But before we do any thoughts on the national championship game We got Alabama in Ohio State Alabama now at eight and a half point favorite. It was seven and a half It's moved to eight and a half total here 74 and a half Any quick thoughts on this one before we let you go? Yeah I guess like if the number is going to be over seven, which it looks like it's going to be and I would say that right now And I want to give a shout out to my buddy Colin Wilson who was on you better You better what a great point on Tuesday That's addition of our show that I'll echo here where I think Alabama is going to start to become when people put in There kind of weekend bets If people like let's say wanted to do like a Steelers Alabama money I'm not saying I'm gonna do this I'm not but like if you want to bet Alabama and like put Alabama in a parlay with some of the favorites this weekend if people Are interested in something which I'm not necessarily advocating but people want to do that I would look to do that now because like Jim just told you this number is going up for Alabama if the numbers over seven for me I guess it's Ohio State, but I'm much less interested in the side in this game And I'm a lot more interested in the total. I almost don't care what it is I'm gonna bet the over I Think Ohio State can keep the game at least relatively close and if Ohio State is gonna keep this game even relatively close It can't go under because Alabama is gonna score a million points I certainly think Ohio State can score some points as well And like we're starting to get Some reports trickling out on Wednesday morning that Justin Fields should be good to go And if if that's the case, you know, I certainly think Ohio State can do their part to get this game over the total So for me 75 it I off air asked you guys, what's it at right now? I don't care I want the over 75. Yeah, give me the over. I'm not gonna shy away from it I like the over in the national title game if we Go Justin feels is getting the the the best treatment that money can buy for that Yeah, basically a tour of all needles with you that'll do it for him Like it did like it did against against Clemson that'll do the trick for sure That is Nick Costos make sure you follow him on Twitter at the costos and check him out on you better You bet on radio.com Nick. We appreciate the time. Good luck to you this weekend Good luck with all your other stuff going on to appreciate it guys Good luck to you guys good luck to all the listeners wishing you and all the listeners minimal sweats winning bets And the absolute very best of luck Covering the future Big thank you once again to Nick Costos for swinging by and breaking down wild card weekend and the College of Football National Championship game and Ed it's gonna be a fun game I know we've talked about this before but I selfishly like a lot of points I like to watch offense and It seems like we're probably gonna get that this weekend Nick said Whatever the over is or whatever the total is just take the over. Are you kind of thinking the same thing here? Oh? Yeah, absolutely, so I think the championship game should be great. I mean, I think even I Mean, I don't like anything side-wise, but but I think it's gonna be a competitive game my numbers have Alabama by eight points and I think it I Mean I talked a little bit about how much I like Justin Fields I mean, he's he's a great quarterback and when you think about this from Alabama's perspective Yeah, they're the best team and this might be Nick Saban's best team ever But this is the first time they're gonna step out on the field and they're not gonna have the advantage at the quarterback position As much as I like Mac Jones, I think he's fantastic Justin Fields is a better quarterback. So I think Alabama is a better team But you know in terms of the outcome of game outcome of the game I'm not gonna be surprised at all if Ohio State puts up a big number And actually wins this game outright. So But yeah, let's talk about the total so when These are the two best offenses in the nation, I mean, you saw it on the field You've seen it all year with Alabama only 31 points against Notre Dame, but they they they are clearly In explosive offense Ohio State as well and What they did against Clemson? I mean an elite Clemson defense, right? Like this this is not this is not like Michigan's defense out there. This is this is a Top-five unit by by every way that you can possibly measure it and they just they just obliterated So what do you think about points in in in this game as well? Well, I mean Alabama's defense is good. They're seventh best when you look at adjusted success rate They're better against the pass third than they then they are against the run You know, they do have Patrick Sartan who's probably gonna be a number of First-round pick at the cornerback position. I think that's certainly gonna help But Ohio States, I mean, I just see them putting up points against this this Alabama defense I think they're gonna be able to run the ball I think fields is gonna be able to to throw the ball as well I know how state. I mean, I've been talking about their their past defense all season It's still a small sample size of seven games, but they're 40 They're 53rd when I look at my adjusted success rate on passing plays Cornerback Sean Wade had a lot of issues against Clemson in coverage He's kind of gone, you know before the season started as a guy who was gonna be a first-round NFL draft pick That draft stock is definitely dropping when you look at Average of mock drafts out there and now he's going up against Heisman trophy winning Devonta Smith. So Anyways, I think it there's gonna be a lot of points My model actually likes about 78 points in this game I actually think that prediction is a little bit low because both of the defenses actually rank a little bit better By the metric that I'm using and the metric I really should be using is a success rate and they rank worse When they look at that. I really think the the projection should be like 80 points I kind of hate this play in the sense that it's a very public play The over in a big-time game But I think both the numbers and what we've seen on the field this season back that up I completely forgot about Devonta Smith. We had to give Adam Kramer credit like yeah He was successful He completed his task of getting Devonta Smith the highs and we talked with him before the conference championship games I think Devonta Smith might have been like plus 250 at that point But like he was a hundred to one to open the season. He was 22 to one after the Auburn game like Kudos, I hope that I hope I think Adam said he didn't have a ticket on him But I hope he eventually got one just to you know get the the additional sauce on top of that So kudos Adam Kramer for nearly Devonta Smith when the highs been there and yeah, Sean Wade I follow enough Ohio State people where they have been Basically every tweet from Ohio State fans has been mocking his his First team all our first team all-american selection. They've just been laughing that effective at that effectively So I think they're on the same page with you where they are dreading that matchup With Devonta Smith, it's me a phone game. Yeah, well, and it's really tough, right because you lose Jeffrey Okuda and Damon Arnett to first-round picks at the cornerback position and Ohio State is a program It's been able to just replace guys like that Yeah, and then now you come to the season where you can't replace, you know, like it just doesn't happen every year So Ohio State is still a good football team, especially on the offensive side of the ball Right and should be great game like credit to Ohio State's defense for getting better as a season went along But this is a really tough assignment. It's really tough to slow down Devonta Smith, Mack Jones, Najee Harris, that'll be tough But hopefully a fun game coming up on Monday. I want to go back to a game We discussed with Nick for my cover in the future I do want to go in the same direction as him and back the Rams at plus three and a half And it's it's nerve-racking to say the least given that Jared Goff is still uncertain And how their offense has played the last month But I think there is enough positivity in the news With the Rams for me to jump before this line moves more because the good news that practice Tuesday was that Jared Goff is throwing Cooper Cup was back and Cup is on the COVID-19 list This makes it seem like it was just a close contact rather than someone Rather than he tested positive. So that's a good thing I think that means Cup will be back for Saturday, which is a good thing for this offense Goff was throwing a practice on Tuesday and Sean McVeigh said that Goff was preparing as if he will play The only negative report around Jared Goff sounded to be more speculation based rather than strict reporting And I think that's that's a key a lot of times is deciding What is being fed to them by a coach and is definitive and what is speculation based on other stuff This one's in speculation based the negative report on Jared Goff. I think it was Monday Didn't seem to have all that much weight Whereas reporting from actual beat reporters in Los Angeles on Tuesday was much more optimistic But I think the biggest positive here and potentially one that's going overlooked is Andrew Whitworth The left tackle is expected to be back. This Rams offensive line is bad They have they played better this year than they did last year, especially Austin Corbett's been really good But Whitworth Taurus MCL back in week 10. That was their first game against Seahawks They won that one 23 to 16 in the games with Andrew Whitworth. Jared Goff is out at point one three passing that expected points per Dropback it's about league average. It's not great, but without Andrew Whitworth Goff was at point oh four, which is even worse John Wolfer was at negative point oh two last week So if the Rams are confirmed as getting Goff cup and Whitworth back And it seems like that's the way things are trending as of Tuesday's reporting I think this line does wind up crossing three And getting to two and a half or somewhere around there So I'm gonna take it at three and a half and hope that my read on the situation winds up being correct I had been burned by this earlier in the year by thinking the Saints were not gonna play Taysum Hill They did or not gonna play Drew Brees, which they did but I think based on The reporting I've read from reporters. I put a lot of faith in I think it sounds like they're gonna have Goff Whitworth and Cup and if that happens, I think three and a half is a very advantageous number Ed What are your thoughts in this game? Yeah, I mean a lot of thoughts, but let's let's just get away from the quarterback situation for a second and think about The the data from the current year. So I look at success rate I look at points look at yards for pass attempt and adjust for schedule separately and combine them and and that's how this team has performed in the current year And when you just use that metric my numbers like the Rams by two points On the road in this game. Okay, so clearly Jerry golf might not be in John Wolfer might be in but if The Hawks get to be a six-point favorite. You're telling me that the downgrade from golf to Wolford is eight points that's a lot and But the other side is like, you know, do you really want to bet against Russell Wilson? Maybe you do because the Rams really have a good defense. The Rams defense has been a revelation this year Jaylin Ramsey and Aaron Donald turned out to be just as good as I thought they could be At the beginning of the year, but they also have two cornerbacks and Darius Williams and Troy Hill that that have played really really well this year. So Yeah, I don't know those are my thoughts. I haven't bet it yet. I will we'll see I mean, I'm almost thinking that if golf doesn't play and this gets to six that that might be That might be that might interest me more than if it stays around where it is right now Yeah, so what we've been talking it or I think we've mentioned this but I've been tinkering around with my own model trying to you know craft my own stuff out and looking at that I have one that That weighs defense more than I think it should and one that I think that downplays it quite a bit the one that downplays Defense has Seattle minus one, but that's downplaying the Rams defense I think a pretty significant amount. The reason I do that is because defense is less sticky less predictable I think that's the right to play things if I have this juiced out where the defense is like fully predictable and sticky It's Rams minus three. So if we take the middle of those two And the Rams minus one so I feel better hearing that you have the Rams minus two in your number as being And it's upset of my numbers, right in a subset of your numbers Like I don't feel confident enough to base my recommendations off of this model yet But you know I can feel at least take some solace and hearing that you are at least on a similar page with regards to this game You take the middle of those two numbers Yeah, yeah, absolutely And you know the markets and other parts of my model definitely like Seattle in this game as well But I think when you look at the data like that Rams defense is really good and and they haven't Yeah, I think they were and they're gonna come to play that's gonna be a fascinating game That is the Saturday afternoon game the total 42 and a half Rams a plus three and a half my here bet for Wildcard weekend that is all the time that we have for this week here on covering the spread big Thank you once again to Nick Costos make sure you follow him on Twitter at the Costos and check him out on you better You bet so they're doing a lot of college basketball stuff with him and Ken Barkley So check that out wherever you get your podcast and of course on radio comm as well Big thank you to Nick do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are back to once weekly shows so make sure you subscribe to get that podcast right as it goes up Ed what is going on for you this week over at the power rank? Yeah over at the power rank. This is the the one time a year that I Excuse me so you can get the power rank 2020 NFL playoff report So it's the one time a year where you can get my best numbers and my full analysis without signing up for membership Which requires you to sign up for a year and the auto renew. This is a separate product So I check it out has all my predictions for wildcard weekend. You'll get all my predictions Oh actually for the championship game too, but you just heard that because I talked about it on the show So you'll get all my predictions in my analysis for NFL playoff games right through the Super Bowl Yeah, so it's it's if you've been thinking about maybe trying out some of my paid services This is a good opportunity to try that out without signing up for the year Yep perfect the power ain't done that for that anything for you on the football analytics show Yeah, Fabian summer on the show a guest that we've had on covering the spread earlier this year We talked about a bunch of the games. I thought his takes were we're very interesting as well He he actually put a number on the contribution of quarterback versus Coach and rest of the team for a couple of teams like the Rams and the Bills, which I thought was particularly interesting So that should be up by the time this podcast is up the football analytics show All right, the football analytics show for that and the powering net to get Ed's playoff preview I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am s a n n e s You can also follow the Fandall podcast network at Fandall podcast our DFS podcast is continuing Throughout the playoffs. We'll have our wild card weekend preview talking about all six games and all two slates That'll be up tomorrow a recording live on the Fandall YouTube page 10 a.m. Eastern over there Big thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you Cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck with your bets both for wild card weekend And for the national championship game. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network