 Mae fawr. Nid yw, Curran. Felly gwybodiedd nhw'n credu bod ni'n fyw hynny. Mae'n fyw bod yma'n unwys gyda'r amlwg iawn sy'n bwynt môl. Felly mae'n gweithio'r hyn o'r rhan. Mae'n rhan o'r hyn sy'n meddwl i'r Gwyrdd James. James? Ddiolch yn fawr. Ond nid yw'n fel eich ysgolodd ei wneud hynny, sy'n meddwl i'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio ddwy flynydd. mae'n gilydd o gwybod i'r wych yn medweithio'r cwestiynau o'r cyffredin iawn. Mae'n ddweud i gweithio'r rhaid o'r trefyn o'r ffrwngau, el�� ar y rhaid i'w rhaid i gael peth, ac y gweithio'r amser o'r teiml iawn ac o'r perthynas a gweithio'r flwyddyn ond mae'n dod o'n defnyddio'r siwr o'r mynd o'r ddodolol ac yn olygu'n gwneud o'r ffrwngau o'r gwneud o'r wych. Felly, ond yna hwnnw i'n gweithio. Thank you, James. And then the next one. So this is one of the key slides which shows our approach to the analysis for the sixth carbon budget. And what we did is we developed three explore are two scenarios which are shown here in Gray and these span on one axis. How far we think we can go on innovation and R&D. And on the other on how far we can go on behaviour change. So the widespread engagement quotation scenario is one in which people and businesses are more likely to take action on behavior change. And so it sits on on the high end of that axis. And widespread innovation, as the name suggest, is where innovation needs to cost reductions for many technologies. For example cheap power which flows through the economy in different ways. Hedewins is where progress is more heavy going and we need to make more use of infrastructure. There's more hydrogen use in this in this scenario particularly for buildings and transport and tailwinds is an optimistic take on what could happen if things go well on both of these fronts so it's exploring maximum peaceful potential but not necessarily what we think will happen. So if we go through one more thanks James. So our balanced pathway cuts across all of these scenarios and in this pathway we assess what actions are needed across all sectors to take a balanced view of what can be achieved and this brings together a lot of bottom detailed bottom-up analysis across all all-emitting sectors of the economy it aims to keep open options from the other exploratory scenarios and what's crucial about the balanced pathway is we think it's feasible and we use this pathway to make our recommendations. Next one please James. So the balanced pathway is also consistent with climate science and what's happening internationally is consistent with the Paris ambition and keeps open the 1.5 degree ambition open. It delivers early action which is important because this determines cumulative emissions which drive climate outcomes. It results in UK per capita emissions by 2035 which are consistent with global pathways to 1.5 degrees. It shows clear leadership and supports raising global ambition which is needed in the run-up to the UK's presidency of COP next year and we think it's a fair contribution in the context of global emissions reduction. It sees UK taking action earlier than required in many of the global pathways to keep warming below 1.5 degrees. Okay next slide please James and the next one. So what are we actually recommending? This shows the path of emissions to net zero with the sixth carbon budget period shown here as the purple bar and the headline here is that we need to cut emissions by 78 percent by 2035 on 1990 levels which in effect brings forward the previous 80 target by nearly 15 years and you notice that the path is front loaded is an inverted S shape which means that more action is taking at the beginning of the period at the later period so 60 percent of the reduction is in the first 15 years from now with 40 in the following 15 years and this is really important for investment because most of the investment needs to take place in the next 15 years and the fact that it's front loaded means that we leave open opportunities in the exploratory scenarios if we need them later. It's also important to note that it includes emissions from international aviation and shipping and from peatlands. In terms of our recommendation on the UK's nationally determined contribution we've recommended a reduction of 68 percent in 2030 and that excludes international aviation and shipping in line with that UN convention but that's not to say that we don't think this sector should be ignored we also need to pursue abatement options in all of the sectors and we're very pleased that the government has now announced this level as it's NDC. Next slide please James. So this slide really just summarises the committee's key recommendations so we've just been through the budget level and the 2030 NDC in terms of the budget scope we think that budgets should cover all greenhouse gases as I've just mentioned including international aviation and shipping and peatlands. In terms of domestic action versus credits performance should be based on domestic action with credits only being used when these go beyond the budget level that we're recommending and we think it should be legislated as soon as possible to give clarity and certainty to business and to put in pleasures the wide range of measures that we need to deliver it. This is really important for the next few years and the next decade and lastly we don't think we need to change existing budgets because the NDC and the six carbon budget supersede these. So those are the key messages for the economy wide bit of the report. We'll now move on to a summary of the picture for what this means for agriculture and land use. So next slide please James. So this is one of the key slides that summarises what the six carbon budget means for land use. For those of you familiar with our previous work the analytical approach that we're adopting in this report is very similar but we're updating a lot of the evidence and assumptions compared with our net zero report. So what we do is we look at how land is used now and consider how this needs to change in the future to both maintain per capita food production in line with a growing population, deliver decommissions reduction and also achieve other environmental objectives and the headline result is that we need is that around a third of land is freed up through productivity improvements and consumer behaviour change and we need to use around 21% of this for actions to sequester and reduce carbon. So on the right hand side chart we see an increase in uses that basically sequester carbon and a reduction in areas associated with traditional agricultural uses on cropland and grassland. So land for forestry, agroforestry and bioenergy crops increases from around 15% currently to 25% by 2050 and there's a corresponding reduction in cropland and grassland. Cropland goes from 20% now to about 17% by 2050 and grassland from over just over 50% now to 31% by 2050 so that's quite a big change. There's also a big increase in natural peatlands with nearly 80% of peatlands restored by 2050. So next slide please James. So this shows how we can achieve this transformation and looks at measures that release land. In the balance pathway we nearly 4 million hectares of land are released by 2035 and 6 million by 2050 and a negative value on this chart reflects land that's released from agriculture and a positive land that's required and the bottom bar here illustrates the additional land needed to maintain food production in the light of a growing population and also settlement growth demand. In terms of the measures that release land, direct chains house by far the biggest impact so this is around four times higher than the next biggest measure and in the balance pathway we have a 20% reduction in meat by 2030 rising to 35% by 2050. The other measures such as crop yields, food waste reduction and increasing livestock stocking rates have very similar impacts by 2035 and moving horticulture indoors has very little impact on land released you can barely notice it in this chart but we thought it's important to include to demonstrate the feasibility of this as an option and also that it could have a larger impact if emissions, if horticulture crops are moved from from peatlands where that they're often grown. So I'll hand over now for India to take you through the remaining land use slides. Next slide please James. Yes so what I'm going to do now next set of results are going to show you the emissions results under the balance pathway and also the other scenarios. So firstly looking at agriculture so we can see in 2018 emissions stood up close to 55 megatons and under the balance pathway we see this fully by 28% 39 megatons by 2035 and by 36% by 2050. So next slide. So in terms of the emissions savings compared to the business as usual a basement is 13 megatons in 2035 so those are the annual savings so this chart on the right shows you how that 13 megatons is split across the main abatement chunks and you can see the purple wedge which is diet change and food waste reduction gives you by far the largest reduction and most of that actually is diet change so it's the 20% by 2030 rising to 35% by 2050. The orange chunk is the low carbon practices so these are the take up of measures that farmers can deploy on farm to reduce non-CO2 emissions from livestock soils and crops and waste management and by 2035 the take up can deliver four megatons of savings in that year. The abatement potential of these low carbon farming practices takes account of the change in agricultural area and livestock numbers from the land release measures so for example with diet change you will have a reduction in land area but also livestock numbers so what that does it reduces the abatement potential from the take up of low carbon farming practices. So next slide please. So this slide here shows you the agricultural pathways under the different scenarios so you can see that the emissions savings by 2035 ranges between nine megatons under the least ambition and least ambitious headwind scenario right into 19 megatons worth of savings under the innovation scenario so residual emissions fall by between 30 and 56% by 2050 compared to 2018 and again if we look at the key differences as what explains the differences in this level of abatement under the headwinds we've got less ambition on diet change so we've got a 20% reduction in meat and dairy production by 2050 compared to the balanced pathway of a 35% reduction for meat consumption by 2050 and under the innovation and wider engagement scenarios we have a much higher level of diet change so a 50% reduction by 2050 so that drives a lot of the differences in abatement in those particular scenarios also in the innovation scenario we have a higher level or the highest level of crop yield improvement sustainable crop yield improvement so what that does it releases more cropland compared to the balance pathway so you see a corresponding reduction in agricultural emissions there. We can go to the next slide please. So turning our attention to the land use sector current emissions in 2018 stood at close to 13 megatons so the sectors are net source this is if we include all sources of peatland emissions but under our balanced pathway we see these emissions falling by 93% to around one megaton by 2035 and by 2050 it reverses to a net sink close to 20 megatons. So by 2035 annual net savings compared to the business as usual is around 30 megatons and the chart on the right shows you how that 13 megatons is split across the main abatement opportunity so what are the land based opportunities there. So you can see a forestation is the top chunk so that's delivering around two megatons of savings by 2035 so that's driven by a forestation rates reaching 30 000 hectares by 2025 and then increasing to 50 000 hectares by 2035 which is then flat lined all the way to 2050 and the second chunk there is the peatland emissions savings which is about six megatons by 25 in 2025 so as ever mentioned we see the area that's being restored rising from the current 25% to 58% by 2035 and close to 80% by 2050 so we look at all types of peatland restoration there including uplands, lowland brasland and lowland cropland within lowland cropland we're rewetting 40% of lowland cropland area by 2050 and it's either being rewetted to near natural condition or it's actually rewetted to a polludi culture type system so that's a wetland type system where you can grow crops in waterlog conditions and we also incorporate savings from lowland cropland sustainable management options so this is where conventional agriculture is remains so you're still growing the same type of crops as currently but you're actually managing the water table better which allows you to actually reduce emissions from this cropland and also another key abatement measure we have is the planting of energy crops so this includes the perennial energy crops of src, miscanthus and short rotation short rotation forestry so planting rates for these products reach 30 000 hectares by 2035 and by 2050 the area increases to 0.7 million hectares we go to the next slide please so this next slide shows you the land use sector under the alternative pathways so you can see that under the most ambitious pathways widespread innovation and tailwinds the net sink is reached by 2035 and by 2050 all scenarios are net sinks ranging between 12 to 38 megatons so what's driving the changes in these savings well we one of the key differences is the level of a forestation rates so under the wider engagement we've got the highest level of a forestation which reaches 70 000 hectares by 2035 but this type of forestation under the widespread engagement is sort of driven by more diverse more biodiversity so it's got a higher broadleaf mix compared to conifers whereas an innovation scenario where sort of focused more on planting more conifers that have higher yields as well and another key difference is the level of energy crop planting so in the innovation scenario we have doubled the area of energy crop planting than we do under the balance pathway so that's a key driver of the high level of abatement savings in that particular scenario if we go to the next slide please so putting putting those two sectors together this is the combined level of emissions residual emissions under the different scenarios by 2050 and we can see if we look at the balanced the balanced pathway there that emissions from those two sectors fall to 16 megatons and looking at the alternative scenarios the range there is between 26 and under the most ambitious scenarios of tail winds and innovation it's actually reaches less than zero so 14 megatons there under the tail winds if we go to the next slide please so what does this mean in terms of the amount of capex capital investment that's needed to deliver both the agricultural abatement and also the land use sequestration so we estimate that the balanced pathway would require net investment of 1.5 billion in 2035 so again this is the the capital investment required and how that splits out is most of that is actually from the land the land based motions and a much smaller part of it is to do with the take up of low carbon farming practices woodland creation and energy crops are by far the most significant costs so they account for a considerable chunk there as you can see from the the two bottom wedges so that's the capex needed but we also try to estimate what that means in terms of the environmental and wider social benefits that our balanced pathway could deliver and we estimate that this is roughly around 0.1 billion pounds in 2035 rising to 0.6 billion by 2050 so we weren't able to quantify all environmental benefits it wasn't possible for us to quantify the biodiversity benefits and the water quality improvement benefits you would get but of the benefits we were able to quantify by far the largest was the recreational benefits and this accounted for about 74 percent should we go to the next slide please so in terms of the key recommendations so we we've got three reports that were released last year one report is our sort of focus is more on the policy recommendations that's needed and more detail is actually given in our january land use report but these are the key recommendations that we've highlighted for the six carbon budget so these concern strengthening of the regulatory baseline to ensure that low regret measures are taken up so this talks about you know the need to retain and extend existing environmental legislation that has actually you know been good for reducing agricultural emissions so cross compliance rules for example you know retaining uh nitrate vulnerable zones and extending them where possible um and also banning you know damaging practices on peats so whether that's rotational burning or peace extraction or multicultural use so we've called for an immediate ban on rotational burning the second key feature is the need to provide funding to ensure that these measures are taken up so that consists both you know the provision of public subsidy whether that's through the elm system that's going to be rolled out shortly um or you know the development of a private mechanism to encourage a forestation rates which could be delivered through some sort of trading scheme or auction contracts and I note that the forestry commission and DEFRA published the details of their third woodland creation auction yesterday so that's a sort of system where they're trying to encourage private and sector investment in planting more trees thirdly so that's the that's the financial side but we also um recognised as a whole host of non-financial barriers that's stopping willing participants with the money there to take up some measures um you know there's a considerable range of non-financial barriers some of them we cite there so we need more skills and knowledge you know ensuring farmers have the information to be able to know what to do with their land scaling up the forestry supply chain and resolving tendency issues on farm so you know some circumstances tenants might be willing but the terms of their contract might prohibit them from changing the use of their land um we also given that elms isn't actually going to be rolled out until 2024 we have to ensure that there is a set of interim policies and funding in place so that we avoid a high aid disinaction many of our measures um you know such as a forestation for example has to get started now given the long time profile before they start sequestering significant amount of carbon so it's important that we have you know a set of policies in place as soon as possible to avoid this hiatus um looking at the the sort of the demand side so the diets and the reducing food waste so what we've asked for is that has to be as evidence-based strategy that consists of providing information to consumers that enables them to actually you know to give them more information so that they can make informed choices as to the sort of products they're making so that could include you know more carbon labelling in supermarkets for example and also a widespread campaign to make them aware of the climate and also health impacts of the food choices that they make and in terms of reducing food waste we've called for mandatory separate food waste collection you know as as is currently the case in Wales and lastly for our policy recommendation there has to be a need for a very strong monitoring reporting and verification system very crucial you know we're giving out public money under the elm scheme for the delivery of action so we've got to be able to monitor you know what these actions are actually delivering and at the same time where there is regulation in place we've got to ensure that the body's responsible for enforcement are properly resourced so that includes the agriculture and land use sector. Great then I'll just present a brief overview of our analysis on waste then thanks James if you can just move on to the next slide so I think first of all just worth reminding ourselves that waste is still a fairly significant proportion of the UK's emissions it's about six percent of today's emissions although it has reduced about 60 percent since 1990 and that's largely by avoiding waste going to landfill so it has been a success story to date but what we're recognising here is there are significant opportunities to reduce waste emissions even further and we're suggesting around 75 percent reductions in the balanced pathway and you can see the sources of those reductions in the chart on the left hand side here and then what the chart on the right hand side shows is the variation in emissions pathways across the scenarios for waste in our analysis but just to highlight on the left hand side where we see these emissions reductions coming from first of all highlighting the avoiding waste is a big driver throughout here so you'll see that's important in the early 2020s in avoiding waste going to energy from waste plant and that's the big yellow slice which extends out to 2050 there so that's really materially important there but also avoiding waste going to landfill that's the top chunk there and there we think we can actually probably ban all waste going to landfill by either 2030 or 2040 and avoid particularly biodegradable waste going to landfill which produces the majority of methane at those sites which is particularly potent greenhouse gas and then lastly just that bottom chunk you see on the left hand chart is energy from waste plant fitting carbon capture storage to date energy from waste has been quite a low carbon means of producing energy in the UK producing electricity but what we're saying here is that actually by 2050 in a net zero world it's not comparatively low carbon enough compared to all the other options that you have out there for really clean electricity so that people should be should be thinking about retrofitting carbon capture and storage onto existing energy from waste facilities and any new energy from waste facilities should be built with carbon capture and storage in mind as well so we can ensure it's genuine near zero carbon source of energy by 2050. James if you could just move on to the next one thank you we are recognising the some costs here and actually it's a quite strange investment pattern for the waste sector there's some additional investment in the 2020s particularly in wastewater treatment it's about 400 million pounds a year there in wastewater treatment plant if you think that total the UK probably spends around 12 billion pounds a year on water overall so this is a small additional investment into reducing emissions from wastewater treatment in the 2020s and there are some operational savings separately from that from improved recycling as well and then what you see is some substantial costs from 2040 onwards as existing energy from waste plant fit carbon capture and storage facilities as well which will be quite material cost and I think there's recognition there that government will need to bring forward business models for these energy from waste facilities to ensure that that can happen. Just moving on to the last waste slide then please James what are our key recommendations here so a focus on increasing waste prevention and reuse of recycling as well particularly for food waste that's things like what Indra mentioned so enabling households to to recycle food waste wherever possible as well as mandatory business food waste reporting and more ambitious recycling targets we're recognising that the developed administrations particularly Wales and Scotland have quite ambitious recycling targets already but England and Northern Ireland have got some catching up to do and all of them can probably go further beyond 2030 as well. We think we can ban biodegradable waste from land from going to landfill by as early as 2025 and that's going to lead to material reduction and emissions there beyond that we think we could probably ban all waste from going to landfill and ban the export of waste from the UK as well between 2030 and 2040. We're recognising that we can reduce emissions associated with wastewater treatment as well and suggesting that the regulator off what really take take that into its mandate when it when it considers the net zero goal there and then lastly as I mentioned energy from waste is actually quite a growing source of emissions in the UK at the moment and there's a lot of new there's a lot of plans from local authorities for new energy from waste facilities we think fairly urgent action and guidance needs to be taken there and provided from government noting that these actually are quite high emission sources of energy in the very long run so that will need to be addressed as well thank you.