 Vo'n bwysig i gyfwyrdd y Ffathys i'r union Europeu yn ddefudio addysg iawn i'n defanyddio i'r def Dyma. Mae ffordd a geshwyr wedi gwneud ar� oes yn y byd y cyd-Inau sydd wedi'u cyffredinol arall, a rhaid bwysigio i'r cyfrifol sydd wedi ei wneud o ychydig yn ei kimbwysig, of our place in our complex global economy. At the CBI annual conference in London, earlier this month, I think we were able to do just that. Andy Bagnall and I, and Andy is the author of this report, published a landmark report entitled Our Global Future. The findings show how much British business believes that the best way to maximise the benefits of global trade is to remain part of a reformed European Union. And I want to talk today, Mr Chairman, about some of the findings in that report and where I see the ideal future direction of travel. But first, I think it's important to look at things, how things stand now. The acute crisis in the eurozone might have calmed slightly over the last few months, but it's not disappeared altogether, has it? Eurozone countries continue to transform rapidly. Think of the recent downgrade to France's credit rating by standard and pause, or Germany's huge trade surplus now being looked at by the European Commission, as being linked to the wider eurozone struggle to adjust and rebalance. As it does so, and the broad-based continent-wide downturn in economic activity begins to change direction, the possibility of problems bubbling up is never far away. It serves to remind us that eurozone's economic performance is one of the most significant downside risks to the UK, the Irish and the global recovery. For those in the business world, as Ireland's recent presidency of the European Union made clear, we can't kid ourselves that we're home and dry. This slow recovery that I think we are now into can't be taken for granted at all. But a turnaround has begun to take hold. The eurozone's long-suffering economy is finally showing signs of a creeping... Sorry, a long-standing, long-suffering economy is finally showing signs of a creeping recovery, even though it's very fragile beyond the core. It's edged out of recession and is starting to grow with deficits and borrowing costs, which not so long ago threatened to upend the single currency as a whole, now much reduced even across the weaker states. Finding common ground with other EU member states, taking a lead in helping to restore stability and getting Europe growing again, is critical to the UK national interest. But we need to increase our own UK competitiveness, our productivity and growth just as much as we need these things to be improved in Europe. And here too, after a long period of uncertainty, the UK economy, I think, is now set fair. The confidence we've been lacking is now swinging back into action. In the latest figures, the economy picked up more speed between July and September, growing at its fastest pace in more than three years. Across the purchasing manager index figures and a range of CBI's own surveys, we've seen a significant increase in optimism and growing forward order books, which indicate a broad-based recovery is underway. We expect growth this year to top out at 1.4%, but much more importantly, we see growth of 2.5% in 2014 and in 2015. And as a result, the business investment cycle is now turning and net trade has begun to make a real contribution to growth after many years in which it didn't. Now, our recovery in the UK is not spectacular, but it's solid and it's well-rooted. And I think you have some of the same characteristics here in Ireland. It's not looked as positive for your economy, has it, since 2008. The UK and Ireland economies are historically and currently closely connected. There are many indicators of this association. The movement of goods and services, people and capital, trade and investment, the confluence are striking. As you know, the UK is Ireland's largest export destination. Taking 16% of Ireland's total industrial exports and considering the size of the economy and your population here, it's noteworthy that Ireland is the fifth largest recipient of UK's industrial exports. In the face of an increasingly competitive global market, we're confronting very similar challenges and have sight of the same opportunities. The central challenge for business, I suggest, in Ireland and in the United Kingdom is how we achieve sustainable growth in such a fast-changing world. If we want to earn our way in the world, we need to get conditions right on the ground at home in order to focus our ambitions abroad. The UK frankly needs a workforce that's better equipped with the relevant skills for a productive economic future. We certainly need to invest somewhat immediately in our infrastructure if we want it to be world-class. And I would suggest we need a reinvigorated relationship with a reformed Europe. And it's the reinvigorated relationship with Europe that I want to focus on this afternoon. My Prime Minister's speech in January, which offered the British public an in-out referendum, should the Conservative Party win the next election, has in some ways put a question mark over our membership and has led some commentators in the UK to advocate a straight withdrawal from the European Union. As the voice of UK business, the CBI is determined to help our members navigate what can be an emotional debate with cold, hard facts. Now, while the offering of a referendum is rightly a constitutional matter for government and not something that the CBI, in its own right, would seek to influence, for business, the answer to the question of membership itself is an unequivocal one. Membership of the EU's single market remains fundamental to our economic future. We should remain in a reformed European Union because the alternative is to be outside of it with very little influence. And the report I've referred to, Our Global Future, is the biggest piece of work the CBI has done in many years. It drills down into the narrative that Britain needs to be in a reformed Europe to underpin our global aspirations. That's why it's called Our Global Future. It's not so much a matter of what relationship we've had with Europe in the past, but about where we are now and how we embrace openness and ambition for global opportunities in the future. So if you'll allow me, I'd firstly like to discuss maximising the openness of our trading engagement in Europe and then touch on some of the reforms in the European Union we need to see take hold. Now you know that for centuries the UK has been a melting pot of cultures and traditions and, most importantly, a long-term significant player on the international stage. I think Britain's always been a pioneering nation, a nation of reinvention, our island a place of ideas and innovation, industry and influence, open to trade, open to people, open to investment from all corners of the globe. It may be happening more now, it may be more visible now in the British media, but it's not a new phenomenon. We've always been outward looking and open, helping to shape the global and political and economic landscape, and this has developed and matured over time. And as you know, we English have always done all of this by drawing quite shamelessly on the ideas and skills of the people of Ireland. Whereas in the 19th century, Britain forced openness through industrial dominance, in the 20th century it became increasingly secured through the development of international rules and the founding of multilateral institutions like the Commonwealth, the G8, the UN, with the EU from 1973 as the linchpin for our trading activity. And I think as the world continues to transform and we've seen more globalisation in the last 10 years than in a lifetime, Britain's 21st century global success is about super quick cross-border co-operation, about maximising economic interdependence of people's goods, services, knowledge and ideas. And we're only touching before we came in the room over a drink about the interconnectivity across the Irish sea of people, products, raw materials, all parts of the supply chain every day of the week. And some would say that we should be abandoning the EU and working directly with the superpowers of this new globalisation who principally lie in the eastern rather than western hemisphere. And that's one of the subjects of most debate back in London. If globalisation is the new reality and if Britain remains a global trading nation, why is Europe important? Well, look at the facts. Only 6.8% of UK exports go to the four BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Indeed, until very recently, our exports to the Republic of Ireland were greater than our exports to Brazil, Russia, India and China combined. The reality is that our import, export and investment patterns are just not properly aligned to take full advantage of the power and significance of the new emerging economies. Over time, they will become more important, but it is going to take a long time. In China, for example, we've seen some further signs at the third plenum of a reform agenda, but we don't yet know what that will mean and what prospects it will bring. And CBI companies active in India tell us that alongside the more obvious tariff and non-tariff barriers, substantial obstacles like restrictive labour laws and poor infrastructure are hugely problematic. These markets have enormous potential, but there's a long way to go before they're going to be the predominant place for Britain's goods and service exports. At the same time, the EU accounts for half of UK's trade and around 80% of our exports go either to the EU, the US or other OECD-developed economies. 80%. We have an economy that trades with other advanced economies and it'll be a long while before that changes. Fundamentally, therefore, the first key conclusion of the CBI report is it's not an either-or choice between trading in the bloc called the European Union and trading with the new economic powers of the developing world. We need to do both and we need to do both at the same time. We have to look outwards to the world and fine-tune our ambitions now more than we've ever done before, whilst all the time relying on our relationship with the EU, a relationship which has supported our global engagement for the last 40 years and which, in our opinion, is too important to give up. But to what extent can this relationship with Europe support those global ambitions? Well, it's by facilitating trade through the single market that Europe has and will continue to be our greatest support, the access to the market of 500 million consumers, facilitating international investment to allow the UK to become the world's leading financial centre by providing British business with access to markets around the world worth $24 trillion via more than 30 free trade agreements. Europe makes us more competitive and three-quarters of the companies I represent of all sizes and all sectors say that the creation of a single market has had a positive impact on their business. No alternative option, no different form of trading relationships could come close to matching this balance of benefits or offer greater influence for the United Kingdom. We look very carefully in our report at alternative models. There's a very compelling chapter looking at Norway, looking at Switzerland, looking at Turkey or looking at Britain simply going alone in the World Trade Organization. And we've concluded that whilst the various stages of remove, implicit in these relationships from Europe, might offer some flexibilities, some independence, some advantages, none of the other options other than full membership of the European Union would offer us a better overall balance of advantages against disadvantages. We don't want to be marginalised. We don't want to be on the outside of the tent with limited influence, no European commissioner and no seat around the council table. With any other choice, we lose influence over the completion of rules which we have to apply to our own business to maintain market access. We lose influence over global standards, product standards, technical standards that the EU helps to shape and which we have to implement. These standards and rules affect my company's ability to take advantage of its strengths on the international stage. So that's the case for being in and we calculate in the report that that is worth about £3,000 sterling per household for every household in Britain for every year. That's what it means to the British worker and the British family. But I'm certainly not saying that the EU is perfect. It's not. It has its costs and it has its huge frustrations. And that's why what British business has rallied around in recent months is the notion of remaining in a reformed European Union. We're not talking about remaining in the European Union of the status quo. What are those frustrations? Well, there's a lack of unilateral control over some regulations and for UK firms this is particularly frustrating in the area of employment law. Our labour market has a different model from that of continental Europe. This is an area where one size simply doesn't fit all. There's also a definite sense that the EU's authority is seen to be sneaking into issues unnecessarily like the innumerable commission-led regulations around lifestyle issues. There are many things that don't need European intervention. Many things that simply don't pass a test of the needing to be harmonised. Think of the regulations now thankfully repealed which banned imperfectly shaped fruit and veg. You'll find that still resonates with the British public. So I'm not arguing to maintain the status quo. But a key point here in the CBI's work is that reform from within under the auspices of our current relationship is in our national interest. And what I don't mean here is a special deal for the United Kingdom. I mean the fair agreement on issues for full reform across the board, across the 28 member states, not the repatriation of powers for one country. What we actually want is to get the EU doing more of what it does well and less of what it does badly. More of helping European economies and governments to coordinate with each other to boost the jobs and growth we need in Ireland and in the United Kingdom. To do this, Europe's going to have to reform. It's going to have to renew its priorities and purpose. And there are three major areas of reform that I'd like to see. The first is to ensure that Europe becomes an international 21st century player. More outward looking, more open, breaking down trade barriers where they exist and focusing on signing trade deals like the transatlantic trade and investment partnership with the United States and doing that with developed economies and with emerging markets in Asia Pacific, East Asia and Latin America. Europe must also be more open at home. We really want to complete the European single market which is still far from complete and we need to change the regulatory approach of Brussels. So I would look for a single market in services and I'm particularly excited by the potential for a creation of a digital single market to reduce barriers to e-commerce, keeping competencies at national level where necessary but reaching a point where the European citizen can trade across the boundaries of Europe on the internet without rules getting in the way. So openness has to be the theme for Europe and can't always be taken for granted even in 2013. Second, how the EU operates has to be streamlined not only by organising the processes for assessing new regulations and reducing regulatory burdens, the so-called deregulation initiatives but also by focusing on growth portfolios like external trade rather than maintaining 26 complicated commission portfolios each with a distinct legislative agenda bidding against each other. In addition to this, the EU that emerges from the crisis has to work equally well for all its members. I think this is probably the most key point I wanted to make on the reform agenda. It has to get the right balance between the euro zone and those countries outside of the euro and I don't think, Mr Chairman, there can be any more important issue for Britain and for Ireland, one in the euro and one outside the euro, but with two economies so interrelated and mutually dependent than getting that balance right. Europe has to respect boundaries set by Member States to ensure real safeguards are in place for non-eurozone countries. This is perfectly achievable. We've managed to achieve it on the new regulation for banking union. But we have to commit to making that work. Frankly, I want to be a leading member of the EU of the 28, but I have no intention of being part of the eurozone and have no wish to be part of an ever closer union. And those are the choices that we now face. Can we allow the 17 countries of the eurozone to coexist harmoniously with the 11 countries that are not part of the eurozone, that will change over time? It's not a one-way street, but the tectonic plates of Europe mustn't rub up against each other and create friction. They must find a way of healthfully and healthfully coexisting. Third and crucially, the reform agenda has to begin at home in London. To effect the reforms we want, we must have influence. And contrary to popular belief in the British media, I think the UK has more influence in the European Union than we're often given credit for. We have amongst the highest voting shares in the council and the parliament, but we could be a much more dynamic presence by making efforts to strengthen our links and build even more effective alliances with other member states. No matter how unglamorous the nuts and bolts of making policy in Brussels may be, and I can say I've been in policy making in Brussels for over 30 years, that's where the power lies. And we need more of our own people, British nationals, in key institutional positions to bolster our influence in Brussels. And actually the number of British civil servants operating in the European Commission is now in rapid decline. We must better play our influence in order to engage more effectively, not only to preserve the advantages from which we already benefit, but to reform and create many more. And I'm thinking specifically of better conditions under which businesses have a licence to operate. And to drive these reforms, we need to be in the EU making our case, not watching from the sidelines, ineffective and without a voice. I'd like to see the Westminster Parliament, the mother of parliaments taking more of an interest in what's being done in Brussels, in the way, for example, you see, in the Danish Parliament to take an example, and indeed in European affairs more generally. And I think there is a real opportunity to do that. The more we've looked at this issue, we haven't ended up thinking Britain's on the back foot, Mr Chairman, unable to find its destiny in Europe. We've actually concluded the only thing we lack is confidence and conviction. Lots of our fellow economic liberals in Ireland and across the continent of Europe want to work with the British if the British are serious about being in Europe. But they won't waste time working with the British if we're trying to edge towards the exit door. So in our global future, I think we can properly be on the inside looking out and not on the outside looking in. The EU should thrive and flourish so that all member states can prosper. And this is ultimately how the UK will benefit most from being in Europe in the years to come by harnessing an up-to-date openness for opportunity and ambition and by embracing the global trends reshaping the world economy. And most importantly, I'm convinced that that reform agenda is achievable. Thank you.