 This is Covering the Spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang. What is going on everybody? Welcome on into Covering the Spread. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com as we are getting you set for week number 10 of the NFL and breaking down the best bets on the board with Joe Ostrowski of You Better You Bet and 670 The Score in Chicago. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com joined here by Ed Fang of the PowerRank.com. You can find Ed on Twitter at the PowerRank Ed. We are on to week number 10 and for the first time in like six decades or as long as I've been following football there's actually a really good game on Monday night with the Seahawks and the Niners so usually I kind of check out once we get past Sunday night but I actually have to stick around and pay attention to Monday so I'm interested to see how this goes. How are you doing? I'm good man. You weren't thrilled with that Miami and Pittsburgh game? Brutal. That was riveting. Was the Jets Patriots game a Monday night game? The Ghosts game? Yeah that was riveting too. That was nothing to buckle right? Yeah that was bad. We had the Cowboys Giants with the Black Cat on the field. Oh that was good. Yeah. That cat was something else man. It was a good cat you know it was a good looking cat. I'm not really a cat person because I don't think they like me all that much. I don't dislike cats. How can someone not like you? How can something not like you? It's a cat so I don't know if it really like. I don't know if it... How can some cat not like you Jim? I don't know. I think the Cat's a Ryan Tannehill fan and can tell that I am not quite there. Maybe it's a Mitch Trebisky fan? I don't know. Like there are a lot of possibilities for why cats could dislike me but I think that's what it is. At least we got some good Twitter memes out of it. That's positive. We actually get good football Monday night with Seahawks and the Niners. You had Ben Baldwin on your podcast this week. He's firmly part of Seahawks Twitter. Did you get to talk to him about that game on Monday? Yeah I mean it was kind of the primary reason I picked this week to have Ben on. Ben does a lot of fantastic work. I had him on the last few years on the football analytic show, my podcast. And yeah we just broke it down. He's pretty down on what Seattle is doing on the defensive side of the ball. You can't argue with what Russell Wilson is doing on the offensive side of the ball. And then you know I mean he has some interesting predictions on the Niners defense. I don't want to spill them here but yeah it was pretty interesting his take there and you know I think he expects it to be a pretty good game. It should be and I think it will be a fun game too because we're going to learn. We haven't really seen you know Seattle's defense against a lot of good competition yet and I think that's probably why he's pretty down on them. Because they haven't even been good against bad teams putting them up against you know Kyle Shanahan. It is a bit daunting so I think that'll be a fun one. Check out Ben's thoughts at the football analytics show today. We're going to talk about that game too with Joe Ostrowski of You Better You Bet at 670 the score in Chicago. You can find Joe on Twitter at Joe 0 670. The early odds on 670 the score every Saturday morning if you are in the Chicago area. Also You Better You Bet is on radio.com every weeknight for four hours. Ed you were on there last night. Yeah. What did you talk about there? We talked about why I failed in academia. Failed. We talked about why I'm the former family Tetris champ. You know it's super fun. I don't know. I mean as much as I enjoy talking football and bets and we certainly did that. I enjoy I enjoy some of the other stuff as well. I got to I got to promote my eight year old son on the show so it's kind of fun. I don't think I've ever played Tetris to be fully honest with you. Really? Which one is Tetris? I played Pong. Which one's Tetris? We used to have Pong on my old my desktop when I was growing up and I played Pong because I want to. Tetris is the one with the little blocks with four little squares that like come down faster and faster and you got to you clear a row when it's when you get the blaster thing like you have to shoot them. No. No, there's these little blocks that come down and you have to fit them in with the other blocks that you already have. And when you get a full line all the way across like a full horizontal way and you get points. That's weird. I don't know if I can do that. Are you that young? No, it's not even that I'm young. I think it's just so like I was Tetris was a thing when I was a kid. I was like sheltered I think more so than young. I think that's that's the way that I would lean. I as my mindless entertainment play it's really stupid. But there's this game it's called 2048 and you're supposed to like line these blocks up like you want to get a two block next to a two block for a block next to a floor block a floor block. And if you match a four and a four together, you know, you multiply them. No, you don't do you multiply them? I don't honestly know regardless. You just have to match these blocks together. It's very weird. And that's how if I'm like if I have 10 minutes and can't start anything new for work, I just sit and I do that for 10 minutes. So you can play Tetris online, Jim. I mean, I need to I think I need to do that. I might need to dive into that. I'll get a lesson from you or is it from your son? No, I get a lesson from your son for this. You can figure it out, Jim. Just go just search Tetris online. Go play. It's fun. I think your faith in my abilities is a little bit unfounded, but that's okay. I will I will take that for sure. You'll be fine. Just go do it. All right. And while I'm playing Tetris, all of you can go find our college football week 11 preview with Rufus Peabody of Massey Peabody. He broke down the big games on tap for this week. We got LSU, Alabama, Minnesota, Penn State. Rufus gave his thoughts on those and also talked about his model for the college football playoff and kind of trying to predict what the committee will do to find that search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast. You can find it on Apple podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, anywhere you get podcasts, you can find covering the spread. And while you're there, please leave a rating and review as well. And thank you to those of you who have done so already. Those are a huge help for us and give a big boost to the podcast. So if you like what Joe says today, make sure you go back, subscribe, rate and review. Before we bring in Joe, though, we're going to take a look back at what happened last week. We had Dr. Eric Eager, a pro football focus on to preview week nine. Let's go back through what happened on that one and then get set for week 10. All right. Last week on covering the spread, as mentioned, we had Dr. Eric Eager, a pro football focus previewing week nine. Follow Eric on Twitter at pff underscore Eric. And he did mention that Thursday night game right before we posted it. And he wanted the over on 43 points for the Cardinals and the 49ers. And that game shot out a little bit. You know, part of it was because the Cardinals clawed back late, but that game went over by 10 points. So he hit there for Eric. He also wanted the Texans minus one against the Jaguars because he thought the market may have actually been undervaluing to Sean Watson. And that showed up pretty well as the Texans did cover pretty easily there. One of the Packers over 13 points in the first half, partly because the scripting for the Packers has been so good this year. And they're often struggled. They went under there and didn't really have the ball all that much either. So under for the Packers there mentioned the Patriots minus three and a half against the Ravens. And you talked about that game too, as being one that was pretty interesting because it was hard to tell where to be on New England. And of course, Baltimore won that game. You were talking about it, how you like to buy New England when the markets are soft on them. Do you think that we might get a chance to do that as they come back from their buy next week? Yeah, we could. We'll see. I think it's always, I always like betting on New England, especially when the numbers like it. It was an interesting game because kind of the defense kind of broke down for New England. Baltimore was able to do a lot of things on the ground with Mar Jackson, a lot of long extended drives, pretty successful on the ground. And when you're successful on the ground, it doesn't make Lamar Jackson have to beat a very tough secondary. And then, yeah, I'm still kind of, I talked about Brady and the New England's pass offense, something I'm still looking into to figure out whether they kind of just don't have the weapons to go deep and be as successful in that passing game. So stay tuned and let you know what I find out. Yeah, that'll be very interesting. So I would bet that we'll be talking about them at some point next week because I have also been skeptical of that passing offense. And it didn't really do a lot to change my mind there because Baltimore's past defense isn't good either. But they're also your penalties that kind of really influenced the way that game broke down. So I think the Patriots are a team we'll want to keep an eye on in the future. Eric also mentioned the under on Seattle versus Tampa Bay. That game also wound up shooting out. It was kind of the night in their scenario where Tampa Bay got ahead early and kept the Seahawks from, you know, killing their own offense by running their Grounded Pound offense. Anytime Russell Wilson gets put in a negative script, they're going to score points. That's kind of how it happened. So it very easily could have gone the other direction. I think that's why Eric wanted the under, but just happened to be where Tampa Bay got out to an early lead. I had the Lions plus two against the Raiders and they were a yard away from scoring and covering. They did not get that. I like, in theory, I like the thought, what they did was they got down to the one, they went forward on fourth down and they went in this jumbo package. And I was like, Oh no, they're going to run. I hate this. I hate this. I hate this because I knew they wouldn't make it. They ran it on fourth and one or fourth and goal from the one. And they went play action. They threw it to Logan Thomas. And I liked the idea of going jumbo and throwing. Sure. But I didn't like the idea of throwing it to a former Virginia Tech quarterback when you have Kenny Galladay and Marvin Jones. So I liked the thought. I just hated. I hated everything else about it, basically. Yeah. No, it's definitely a tough one. And, you know, you mean you're maybe expecting to throw it to Jones or Galladay, you know, a little bit of deception in there. So, right. They were, you know, even on the field, which I think made it worse, but. Oh, yeah. Yeah. It was, it was frustrating. If they had actually tied that game, they probably would in the Raiders won an overtime. I would have lost anyway. So it's not as if they would have automatically covered had they scored that touchdown, but it was a little frustrating still. But a fun game overall. So maybe interested to see what the Raiders can do tonight against the Chargers because they've been a team that I've been wrong about a lot this year. Ed, you actually mentioned them in the preseason as being a team that we are maybe too low on because of all the draft picks. And I think we're seeing a lot. And also John Gruden might just be a better coach than we've given him credit for two. Yeah. No, it could be. I mean, I think, I think that, you know, obviously a lot of what I said in the preseason expected Antonio Brown to be there, which he's not. So, you know, you got to, you got to all put it in the, in the right context. But, you know, I think their past offense numbers look pretty good in terms of my justice success rate. That's something we saw last year, despite the fact that team was awful in the win-loss column. So, yeah, an interesting team for sure. They're not taking any sacks. And I think that's a big part of the reason why they're showing up so well. But they also have like, when Derek Carr has got into the ball, he has done well there too. So it's not just the lack of sacks that's fueling their offense to be pretty good. They might just be a good offense overall. They're left to Aquaculture Millers taking big steps forward. So the Raiders, pretty fun team. I think they'll have a big test tonight against the Chargers. We'll talk more about Week 10 in just one second. But first, if you want to get in on the action, check out the Fanduil Sports Book and place your first bet today. If you lose, Fanduil will give you a refund up to $500 in site credit. Visit sportsbook.fanduil.com for more details, terms and conditions apply, must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, or Indiana. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Let's bring in Joe Ostrowski now to breakdown. Week number 10 of the NFL followed Joe on Twitter at Joe 0670 to get his thoughts there and also find him on You Better, You Bet. Let's get set for week number 10 of the NFL. Let's bring on Joe Ostrowski of You Better, You Bet and 670 the score in Chicago. Joe, it is a busy time of year for you. So I appreciate the time. How are you doing today? Thanks for having me, guys. Appreciate the work both of you guys do. And you put me on the Rufus Peabody Weekend. So I have to try to live up to that standard. Thanks a lot. And, Jim, I don't mean to hurt your feelings to start off, but my favorite bet right going on right now on a weekly basis is Northwestern Team Total Under. Even last week, it was 17. I'm looking at this Purdue game this week. It should be in the 20s. I'm going to have to play it until it loses. So, okay, they're playing Purdue. Purdue is missing a linebacker. I think they're missing like some defensive lineman. Where would the number have to be for you to bet the over? Because like, 15 is like, 15 feels kind of high. I was laughing at the Ohio State. Remember that Friday night game, of course, when the first half team total was three and a half and the undercash then. So I am not even considering the over. It is under or nothing. No touch downs for 13 consecutive quarters. It's been so bad. And like I was I was watching last week's game. Hunter Johnson comes in and the first series, they actually go, they go no huddle with him on the third series of the game. He came in, they run no huddle. The offense shows like a tiny bit of life. And I was like, cool, I don't care if they lose by 40. I'm happy. The offense is alive. They lost by 31. So they really tested my statement of I'll be happy no matter what. But they're bad, man. I would keep doing what you're doing. I appreciate the commitment though and Pat Fitzgerald pretty defiant towards the media. We're not making any changes on offense, but he owns Northwestern at this point. But we'll see if that's the case after this year. It probably will be. It probably will be for him. I will not say the same about his offense and coordinator. I think that might be a different discussion for sure. Enjoy. You've got your name. You've got your eye on college football. We got college basketball season now and you better you bet and it's 670 to score. You're talking a lot of stuff here. So as a better and as a person in betting media, how do you kind of balance having all these sports going at once now? Yeah, I have a love hate relationship with this time of the sports calendar right now. But it makes me feel a little good that we get a the opportunity on you better you bet to talk to some of these bookmakers, which I enjoy just to try to get some information what they're thinking going into the games. And this week they are not happy. They are not. They're working their asses off. They've got to put up all these college basketball games in addition to NBA, NHL, NFL, college football. And like this week with action, we've had football every single day. But personally, I'd be lying if I told you that I'm betting on the NHL every single night. I think that's the mistake a lot of better seem to make. And sometimes we get trouble. Say we'll have a good Sunday, and then we get this over confidence. Well, the NFL is the sharpest lines in the world. If I can beat the NFL, I can beat absolutely anything with not enough prep. I would suggest that people stick with what you're focused on. So like with my work during the week on the score and you better you bet to 95% of it is on football. So I'm sticking for the most part with football. But it's a it's a strong community, as you guys know. So a lot of people are willing to share information. Sometimes they'll give you a look at something. Maybe you could take a deeper dive into it. But let's be real. I mean, you're not doing cover the spread NHL, right? Right now, it's all about football until we get to 2020. So Joe, you got to ask Jim a little bit about Northwestern. I get to ask you about the bears and you follow this team closely. The offense has been a little bit of a letdown to say the least. But do you think that we're at have we bottomed out and maybe there's some value in going with the bears in the future? You are being very kind. But yes, they bottomed out. So CG technology releases the line for every game before the NFL season starts. Now, of course, a lot's changed. We've had some injuries as well. What do you guys think the line was for Bears Lions Week 10 for this game before the year started? We're sitting at two and a half right now. Most books opened at three, but it's two and a half across the board 10 and a half. It was eight. Okay, there's bears minus eight. So I thought the adjustment would be closer to a touchdown three and five. They could be two and six week two. They could have lost to the Broncos. There was that the chub rough in the passer and they put a second on the clock for Pinheiro to hit the game winning kick there. So they could have the exact same record as the Browns. But it's been ugly. It's been ugly. Yeah, usually in the NFL, okay, you buy low and you sell high, but after four straight wins with a buy mixed in there and Mitchell Trubisky is still your quarterback, I have a hard time selling that to anyone. And in this specific case, the bears as a favorite, we're not even talking about the underdog. I'd be more willing to buy low on the bears next week when they're probably going to be at least touchdown underdogs at the LA Rams instead of them as a favorite. I mean, in the preseason, Jim, you have a lot of connection to this area. All the talk all off season was, hey, we just have to find a kicker and we're golden. Everything's great. The defense is wonderful. We have a good offensive line. We lock those guys up. Allen Robinson, second year off the ACL, Mr. Miski, third year in the league, second year in the offense. This is just the tip of the iceberg. What we have with Matt Nagy, we just need the quarterback to take one step forward. Just one. The problem is he took four or five steps backwards. 33rd, 32 teams, 33rd in touchdown percentage, 33rd in yards per attempt and net yards per attempt, 33rd in completion percentage, 32 in passing yards per game, 31st in QBR, 30th in quarterback grading. It's a mess. Even the Trebisky truthers have realized midway through the season, this is not going to work. And personally, I hope the general manager that moved up to avoid Mahomes and Watson to take Trebisky is not the guy selecting the next quarterback because let me also remind you that he wasn't able to pull off the deal, but he wanted to move up for Marcus Marriota. Oh, yeah. Well, hey, that would have been, let's not talk to him of Marcus Marriota in present company. He might be, I know he's your guy, but he might be here next week. He might, yeah. Next year, rather, for some competition. I think Annie Dalton would probably be the preferred target there, but you know, it might be. You were talking about the kicker thing. I remember Kaelin Kaler, who is a Northwestern grad too, wrote for the MMQB about how they have like nine dudes in for a tryout at once. That's a rookie camp. Yeah. Yeah. And like, if you're so focused on that, you're ignoring issues elsewhere. The loan issue with the Bears last year was not that kicker. I think Mitchell Trebisky was 32nd in pro football focuses ratings. And there were a lot of flukeiness in it, even as expected to a point numbers, which were not nearly as negative. And I think that it was just a misguided offseason for the Bears. Absolutely. If you look at DVO way, okay, they're not number one anymore. They're down a little bit, but it's not a bad defense. One major injury has hurt them. Akeem Hicks in the middle teams are gashing them just running the football between the tackles, but you're right. And it would be Bears fans are so sick of hearing the word regression, but it's playing out in 2019. They were just so tired of it. But this is what's happening. You're not getting 36 takeaways again. They're the middle of the pack. And this is, this is what you get. And, but, but I think we can all say that the offense is much worse than anybody ever imagined. And they also moved up for their running back, who was going to be the every down back, David Montgomery. And I bought into the hype a little bit because I thought Matt Nagy handpicked him and he would fit, but they don't have an offensive line this year outside of Cody White here. Yeah. And I remember before the draft, it was either Nagy or Ryan Pace said, we don't have enough picks to prioritize running back. Mike Davis is going to be involved, Trey Cohen will. And just kidding, guys, we're going to move a future four in order to get David Montgomery. David Montgomery is fine. But the process behind that, not great, Bob. So, not the time to buy low on the Bears just yet. Not for me. Not this week. Not as a favorite in the division. Like him or not. I mean, Stafford puts up points. He had a chance to win the game to put up 31 points at Oakland last week. Now, what I will say is the matchup great for Detroit. Like I just mentioned, teams are killing the Bears in the run game through the middle. And it's not like that's their game. They're going to probably try to beat them through the past. But the thing is, I look at this line steam, even against the Bears, they're probably going to put up at least 20 points. And this bears teams losing games, allowing 17 points. Exactly. So don't buy low on the Bears just yet. Let's move on here to another NFC North team, actually a couple of NFC North teams to discuss here for this weekend, starting off with the Panthers at the Packers. The line here is the Packers minus five and a half, the total 46 and a half right now at the Fandals Sportsbook. And the Packers had gotten on a bit of a roll, but they played terribly last week in LA. So how much does that one game impact the way you view them going forward? Or is just kind of a bad game? I was one of those people that was saying that Green Bay is a fraudulent team. And even though they aren't all losses lately, I think we're kind of seeing that play out against the Chargers. They had 81 yards with 10 minutes left in the game. The Chiefs game to get a little lucky. They avoid Patrick Mahomes, unlike most of their opponents. The Oakland game, it looked like a blowout if you're just looking at the final score, but the Raiders, it was miss Q after miss Q in the red zone. That game should have been closer. Of course, the referee game Monday night against the Lions. So their record could be a lot worse. I don't have a lot of faith in the Packers defense. The 25th in yards per play, their dead last and adjusted sack rate. It's getting worse and worse for them. And the, it's big advantage Carolina as far as that Panthers run game with Christian McCaffrey. He's getting all the MVP hype coming out this week, but you also have to take a look. I don't want to be too simplistic here, but we're talking about Aaron Rodgers off a bad performance against Kyle Allen. Last two games for Allen. He's thrown four interceptions. He's completing just above 50% of his passes. I think this is a buy on Green Bay spot, Fade Carolina. I know there's been sharp money on the Panthers throughout the week driving this number down a little bit. Now if it pops back up to six, I probably would not lay it, but at five, five and a half the Ranger at right now, I would take Green Bay. Excellent. Let's move on to Vikings at Cowboys. Cowboys are a three point favorite. The total is that at 48. Cowboys have been a little inconsistent, but are largely healthy now. Where do you put them in the pecking order of the NFC? This game is going to be great. We have a couple of fantastic prime time matchups this week and Sunday night Vikings in the Cowboys will be wonderful. I've been down on Dallas. I was down on Dallas in the offseason, higher on the Eagles. I think I'm proven wrong on that, but it's really close. I don't think Dallas is going to be able to catch San Francisco New Orleans for a buy. They're already two games back of the two seed in the loss column, but when you look at the numbers, and I know you guys do that on this show, number one in net yards per play, number one in offensive DVOA, number two in explosive play rate with Dallas. There were a lot of questions about the offensive coordinator coming into the season. When you look at that, I don't know how you don't buy into Dallas at some point. Aside from the fact, if you're talking about a futures bet, they're probably not going to get a buy. I think we'll hear just a few times about Kirk Cousins in prime time, just a few. As far as this game goes, I think the numbers rock solid. I think if any of us were guessing what the line would be, home team minus three. If I had to make a play, guys, with these two strong running games, both offenses committed to the run, I would look at under 48. Maybe that gets to 48 and a half on Sunday as all the public money comes in. I would lean towards the under, but I don't have a strong play on the side. You would need the total to go higher to bet it, correct? I would do it at 48, but I would hold out hope that it would continue to rise. It's been on the rise throughout the week. Let's move on here to the Seahawks at the 49ers. We were talking about this game in the introduction because it's going to be a fun one. The Seahawks have Russell Wilson, but they're facing this 49ers defense, which has been really good for the entire year, and the 49ers six and a half point favorites here. The total is 47 and a half, and we get the unstoppable force of Russell Wilson versus the immovable object in the 49ers pass defense, unless you're Andy Isabella. So which side do you favor here between the Seahawks and the 49ers? Wait, Joe Tessitour and Booger are going to get a good game? I know, right? A much of a game? What could go wrong? We might have to put them on mute, but I can't wait to see this game. Guys, if I had like 1% of the money that I've lost on Russell Wilson fading him, I think I could have my finished basement done already. It's just ridiculous. I fall into the trap again and again, but San Francisco so far at this point, they're the most balanced team that I see in the league. Whatever you want to look at, they're number two in net yards per play, number one total DVOA. You have a strong head coach in Kyle Shanahan. He gets extra rest going from the Thursday to the Monday game and the Seattle D. Russell Wilson has to have an MVP caliber season just to make sure Seattle's a winning team because they're bottom five in so many categories. They gave up so many points. I think there are going to be a lot of spots moving forward. I'll be one of those falling for it, fading Russell Wilson because after this game, they go to Philly. They've got Minnesota, LA Rams all after San Francisco. It's going to be a rough patch of games for them, but as far as the Niners, I'm also willing to lay it. I'm usually not this guy, but I will take San Francisco minus six. Hope it's not six and a half. It looks early on like Seattle is that public dog. You don't ever want to be on that side. Yeah, that's excellent. I mean, I understand the impulse to fade Russell Wilson because of what's going on on the other side of the ball. It just hasn't really worked out this year, but as you said, that schedule definitely gets tougher. Joe, any other numbers stand out to you in the NFL for week 10? Yeah, I see that you guys didn't want to talk about these because these games are gross, but there are some big underdogs. Are we getting a Jets giants here? No, no, no. Oh, okay. I heard gross and I thought I thought of Daniel Jones. Okay, never mind. Sorry. These are gross too. These are absolutely disgusting and the lines might climb as we get closer and closer to the weekend. A couple of situational plays. I know there are some situational handicappers out there. The Bengals getting double digits off a buy against the Ravens and a potential letdown spot there. I heard Bob Scucci from Boyd Gaming. He said the ticket count on the Ravens is 25 to 1. Wow. 25 to 1. After the world saw the Ravens take down the Patriots last week, it's a letdown spot. I guess AJ Green will be on the field. Maybe Cincinnati rallies around their new quarterback. We've seen that a lot this year, that great ATS record when you have a new quarterback stepping in for that first week. That's usually a bet on side, so I will take Cincinnati plus 10. Maybe this thing gets to 11 or 12 if it's that lopsided by the weekend once the public checks in. And also I'm going to take the Dolphins. They're getting double digits against the Colts. Brian Hoyer is a double digit favorite guys. Brian Hoyer is a double digit favorite. Miami's covered every game since September. Every single game. At least they're fighting. I mean, they were criticized nationally for not trying, for tanking and all that, but we're not seeing a tanking club. You have the high variance with Fitzpatrick under center, but you're giving me 10 or even more than that. I'm going to take Miami because Indianapolis not a very explosive team, so they may win, but I don't know that they're going to win by a couple of scores. And I think the other thing too here is that, you know, Jacoby Berset may play, but he's also banged up. And if he does play, they're probably just going to grind Marlon Mack. They've been okay with being a very run heavy team at times this year. Most have been on the road, but no TY Hilton. It seems like he's going to sit. It makes sense that they would play this one slow, try to escape with a win. I think that that does push towards the Dolphins there too. Jim, would you be worried about the Dolphins finally getting their win? Maybe they're only one for the year and just a bit of a letdown spot. I don't even know if you're a situational gambler. Well, I think that I worry because they're probably popping corks with the 76 Dolphins after, well, I guess we saw the 49ers, but I feel like they can celebrate a little bit. You know, they can celebrate the Patriots no longer undefeated, so maybe a literal hangover from all that. But I think for me, it's mostly about the Colts pace that would push me towards being okay with the Dolphins because it's harder to cover 10 and a half when you're running a slow pace, running the ball a lot. And I think that with Hilton hurts and not a hundred percent, even if he does play, I think that sets up well for Miami, plus 10 and a half. Get the win, get out of there. And with that said, I'll use one of my survivor picks on Indianapolis this week. Right. Frank Wright's not going to let him lose. Frank Wright's a smart guy. And that's why they've been so run heavy this year. I mean, they're super efficient with this. So why not? You know, so I think it should be a very interesting game. But it'll be a fun one, too. Did I mention that the Bears also took Mac Nagy over Frank Reich? Yeah. Well, I mean, the Colts took, it took, oh, what's his name? Well, they tried to give it to Daniels. Yeah. Yeah. So a couple of teams with him there, for sure. That is Joe Ostrowski. Find him on Twitter at Joe 0670. You can find him on You Better, You Bet, or 670, the score in Chicago. One of those places pretty much every night. So Joe, I know you're busy. Thank you for stopping by here today and talking week 10 with us. I appreciate it. And good luck to you this weekend. Thanks guys. It was a lot of fun. Covering the future. One final thank you to Joe Ostrowski for swinging by and joining us for today here on Covering the Spread. Again, follow Joe on Twitter at Joe 0670. You can find his work on You Better, You Bet, and also on 670, the score in Chicago. We'll take a look at Covering the Future in just one second at first. Ed and I always preach searching for the best value in betting on games. Well, look no further than the new Odds comparison our engineers have developed over at Numberfire.com. Odds Fire is the premier Odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated U.S. market. Compare Odds, quickly identify the best value, and even examine first-party fan dual data all in one place. Never settle, always get the best odds. Check out the experience for free now at Numberfire or at OddsFire.com. Gambling problem, call 1-800 at Gambler. Let's dive now into Covering the Future, sticking with week number 10 of the NFL. Ed, you're going to talk about Carolina versus Green Bay. And again, I think this is a pretty fun game. I want to see how this thing plays out. But what do you see with this one here? Yeah, I mean, Carolina is a five and a half point dog. And I was kind of wondering, like, why my number only makes them about a three point dog. And it really comes down to Green Bay's defense. So this is a unit that got off to a great start. We all remember that Thursday night game against the Bears, where they looked really good. And then they played Minnesota the next game also looked pretty good. Well, those offenses haven't been so hot this year. And Green Bay's offense has really been bad lately. So over the past five games, every team, except for Detroit, has had a better than 50% success rate against Green Bay's defense. And just to put that in perspective, you know, the NFL average is 42%. Success rate is, again, a stat that I've been looking at NFL in college. It plays a success if you get 50% of the yards on first down, 70% on second down, and all on on third and fourth down. So Green Bay's defense is really struggled with with success rate. You know, the passing success rate, success rate doesn't look that bad. They're 15th in the NFL. But they're dead last in rushing success rate. And you kind of have to go back. So when I was researching this team in the preseason, football outsiders looked, talked about how Mike Petten was putting more defensive backs on the field compared to linebackers. So essentially, Blake Martinez is the only linebacker that's out there for every snap. They're putting more guys in the secondary. But and it seems from the snap data that I have over at PFF that that they're continuing to employ the strategy. However, I think teams are adjusting to it in the sense that, you know, they're taking what they can get running the ball against against a smaller defense. And, you know, this is not a bad idea to put more defensive backs to slow down the pass. But there's limits, right? Because we know passing is way more important in the NFL. But there's limits to what you can do. And it doesn't look like it's working well for Green Bay in the sense that their rush defense is so bad. And it doesn't really look like they're preventing big plays on the defense side of the ball through the air. So when I look at adjusted yards per pass attempt, they're 21st, the Chargers, the Raiders and the Cowboys have all thrown for more than nine yards per attempt against the defense. So this is a unit that's really struggling. That's what my numbers like Carolina plus five and a half in this game. And that's what I'm going with. And I think the two, like Mike Patton, this flat out said he does not care about stopping the run. And to an extent that makes sense. And you were alluding to this because rushing or stopping the pass is more important than stopping the rush. But if it's not, if foregoing stopping the rush is not allowing you to be good against stopping the pass, then there's kind of no point. You should be allotting more resources to stopping the pass. And if that forces or allows seems to run better against you, cool, whatever. But if you still suck against the pass, despite doing this, that's probably a pretty big red flag. And it wasn't just Chicago and Minnesota, those first two games. It was also Denver was the third team that they faced. And Joe Flacco has since been injured or jettisoned off depending on, you know, which conspiracy theory you choose to believe. And we've seen teams in that. What this does is it also decreases the sample, because it's going to lead to a slower game against the Packers when the opposing team is running a lot. It leads to decreased exposure to Aaron Rodgers, decreased exposure to Aaron Jones. And that's going to lead to more variants. And that's why we see games like we saw against the Chargers because the Chargers ran for I think like a buck 70 against this Packers defense that shouldn't happen, given how bad the Chargers offensive line is and how bagged up they are. But I think I think that you're right here. It's it's very concerning. And the Panthers defense, they're also really bad against the rush, but they're pretty good against pass. So I think that I think this game could play under, honestly, and I'm interested to see how it does go. Yeah, absolutely. And just, you know, when I do these adjusted success rate numbers, I get a rating, which is essentially like a success rate against an average opposition. And on rushing, it's almost 50%. So they're passing one is pretty good. It's like 43. But 50 rushing, you know, you don't want to put yourself in a situation where the average NFL offense is having successful plays on 50%. There's also a lot of wind in this game, which is going to further encourage rushing. So keep that in mind too. Again, I think the under here is pretty interesting. That's not where I'm going to go from my covering the future, because I want to talk about Atlanta, because right now, there is a lot of stink around this Atlanta Falcons team. And that's justified because their defense is pure trash. And it's justifiable that we view this team very negatively because of how bad their defense is. But it shouldn't be because of their offense. And once you adjust for schedule, Atlanta's actually number fires 11th ranked passing offense to the full season. They just can't run. But you don't want to run against New Orleans anyway, because New Orleans ranks third against the rush based on those numbers. They are ninth against the past. They're still a good past defense, but they're not a team you want to run on ever and Atlanta can't run anyway. That means that Atlanta is probably going to throw the ball quite a bit in this game. And they're pretty good at that. Again, ranking 11th as a passing offense, despite not having Matt Ryan for one of those games. So they will also likely have to throw to keep up here. So I'm expecting heavy passing volume to keep pace at and keep the pace of this game elevated. The Falcons right now, their team total over a Fandall sports book is 19 points. I want the over on that number because this team has scored at least 19 points in five of a game so far this year. And three of those games have come one on the road. All those games where they hit the over on 19 points were also indoors. And this one will be indoors too. And I in general like games indoors because you know the wind, there's a ton of wind on this weekend. There is no wind in the Superdome. I would hope not at least if there is. We got a bigger issue, but I think that they're going to be able to throw quite a bit. I'm not sure I can bet the spread here because the defense is so hideous and it really makes difficult to get jazz about any spread involving Atlanta because they could let out 53 points, in which case they have to score 40 to cover a 13 point spread. But I think that when we're looking at this team total being at 19 points, I do feel pretty good about that getting them getting to that number. I just think we're a bit too low on this team as a whole because of the stink around the defense. The Saints defense is good, but so is Atlanta's offense. So I am fully okay with going over on the Falcons team total at 19 points. Ed, any read on this game as a whole for you? So there's been a lot of talk about Matt Ryan declining. I think I actually talked to Rufus about that like a couple weeks ago. But you know, when I'm looking at passing success rate, they're third in the NFL. Obviously got a pretty good game from Matt Schaub there as well. Matt Ryan's PFF grade is about 71, which isn't great, but it's also not terrible as well. So definitely supports you're going over that team total for Atlanta. I think it'll be a fun game to watch because from a DFS perspective, I want to stack that game. So I want to see how that one goes. But hopefully Atlanta can keep pace. That is all we have for today. Ed, any big things for you this weekend? It can be about, you know, it can be about the power, right? But anything else, personal life, fun stuff planned for this weekend? Yeah, what was I going to say? Actually, you know what? I'm going to I'm going to give a plug. So I've been watching with my boys, something called pitch meeting. It's this guy, Ryan George, that essentially talks to himself and he's both the movie, you know, the studio executive and the producer pitch in the movie. It's a really a hilarious. They're really good. So go check that out. And Ryan George also has like his own YouTube channel where he's again talking to himself. It's an interesting use of video in the sense that you have to watch it to figure out who's talking. Right. So you can't just listen to it because it's the same voice. So you kind of have to watch the video. It's hilarious. I highly recommend checking it out. So yeah, I might do some of that with my boys this weekend. I actually ran into an issue with Narcos, the Netflix show. I know I know enough Spanish to like get by like if I need to get by, but I'm not fluent enough to like keep up if there are no subtitles. So like I couldn't like most of my TV consumption is like as a secondary thing. So I'm, you know, working on work or whatever and have it on the background, but I can't do Narcos as like a background show. So I kind of had to like ditch it. But I also I relate to the talking to yourself because that's literally what I do on my baseball podcast or it's just me. Like I had to bring up the point counterpoint why the counterpoint stupid and all to myself. And it's very weird. I'm sure my fiance thinks I'm a coupe. Like she's probably right. But I relate to that. So Ryan George, right? Ryan George. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. He's a man. And it's interesting because it gives me visions of like, you know, me being the analytics guy and me also being the coach and like a video to work on that for could be a script that we could work on. Yeah. I like this. All right. So check out Ryan George. Check out Ryan George. He's hilarious and definitely worth it. All right. After you do that, make sure you check out thepowerrank.com as well and check out Ed's podcast, the football analytics show. Ben Baldwin, always a fun guy to listen to. So check that out with the football analytics show. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network. We had our DFS podcast week number 10. Go up earlier today. You can find that by searching for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast. And while you're doing that, make sure you also subscribe to covering the spread to get our week 11 college football betting podcast of the RISP body and then get set for next week as well. Big thank you to Calvin and Theobald for producing the video side of things here for today. Thank you, Cal, for keeping us on the air as always. And thank you to Joe Ostrowski for swinging by and spreading his knowledge. But week 10 of the NFL. Follow him on Twitter at JoeO670. Do you want to thank you all for tuning in for today? Good luck with your bets for college football and the NFL this weekend. We'll talk to you again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network.