 How liberation of Crimea may affect the course of war? ISW experts. If Ukraine returns Crimea and the occupied territories of the south, three cities will be safe, predicts the Institute for the Study of War ISW. If Ukraine regains Crimea, its defence spending and tasks will be significantly reduced, while if Crimea remains in Russian hands, Ukraine will have to continue to spend a significant amount of money on defence. The January 2022 map assumes that Russia will retain Crimea. If Ukraine liberates Crimea and the territories of the south, occupied by Russia, Kherson, Mikolayev and Odessa will be safe and the threat to Melitopol will be significantly reduced. According to the ISW, Mariupol is currently the only major frontline city in the south which makes it difficult to defend the region. Ukrainian troops need to be well trained and mobilised. The return of Crimea to Ukrainian control significantly reduces the risk that Russia will launch an airborne operation on Ukraine's southwestern coast. It also reduces the threat of Russian missile attacks on ships through the western Black Sea. Explosions are becoming more frequent in the temporarily occupied Crimea. Russians are losing warehouses, military bases and ships.