  útil ఠ్ల్నాన వంఫిగ్ట్ కాదాపోగ్ దియ్ల్వాస్నంవాసిసనతీగార్లప్నుభం ևL ևL փL փL ։L ևL you are having resource country, definitely you have to put restrictions, then I was looking in the media for a couple of days, there was no amount, they were not talking about the quantity of value of this demonetized currency, then there was no talk about when this restrictions will be removed, then another funny thing I noticed that there is no change for the 2000 knots, because previously even I get 1000 rupees from my ATM, I am having some difficulty to get a change for that one, now it is a 2000 and I have to the next denomination will be 100, so 20 100 knots are required, then I have not seen any 500 knot anywhere, so just I that forced me to look into the data, actually I was used to look into solid data basically when I am dealing with issues, I always believe that when you are talking about somebody's data, of course if you are actually looking somebody, you have to take their data and ask questions to them, instead of relaying some other data, so I just went to the RBE, where I found that funny, this you can see that this, this green light, it is the 500 knot and this one is the 1000 knots, totally it will be 86.4 percentage of the total currency was there, so I actually gone back to the RBE records, then I found that you can see that this graph, this is a 100 rupee knot, it started from I actually look into the data, I have taken the data from 1977 to 2016, you can see that at that time it is around 50 percent and it actually come down to 10 percent, the 100 rupee knot, meanwhile the 500 knot actually started from zero, then it is actually introduced somewhere around 87, 88 and it has now reached around 50 percent, so you when the demonetization happened in 77, 78 they have not taken anything, the 100 was very much in the circulation and this time they can actually, they removed the pivotal currency from this circulation, so I was looking at another data, actually how this currency is actually, how much currency in the circulation, this government was taking that, telling that this demonetization was there, for a long time they were actually planning this one and some media was telling that it is more than one year it was there, so I was looking, the government was actually they have taken charge sometime around May, at that time the currency was around 12.83 lakhs, it actually increased 14.29 on March 2005, March 2016 it is 16.42, but funny thing is that between that November period, just before November 8, the information was available on the data on November 4, at that time it was 17.98 lakhs, between March and November the government themselves actually pushed more than 1.6 lakh crore currency into the market, when they want to say that they are going for demonetization, now you look into the total demonetization currency, this 500 knots is around 17 plus million knots and 1000 is around 7 million knots, how you are going to replace this currency, that is the another question, I looked into the capacity, express capacity is actually, the NASA equals the oldest press in India, that can actually, that is the yearly capacity, they can 5800, they was 2820, Mysore and Salboni together, they can 16000 million, I checked with this one with the, because I was looking into the last 5 years data, whether these process are actually made, pushed currency more than this or what is the production, it is almost all with around 24000 million, what is the capacity of these process are there, then an RTI revelations, 811 2016, an RTI revealed that the government has, they are having 2.47 billion currency of 2000 knots in their stock, there is no 500 with them and another RTI they revealed that they started printing these 500 knots on 2311 2016, but funny thing is that RBI has actually put some serial numbers, we have released the 500 series knots, serial number between these two days, between 2011, if you look at their press release, they are telling that they released the knots, they only, another RTI they are telling that they started printing only on 2311 2006, now I looked into the thing, there is a problem, I told you in the beginning, there was the liquidity problem between 100 to 2000 you are, you need 20 knots, before that there was a 1000 rupee knot, now they eliminated that one, so definitely you need, if you are putting 2000, you need more 500 actually, I am not taking that into account, I am assuming that the government is fully converting the 1000 to 2000, that means the rest they have to print around 56 million 2000 knots and they have to print around 17000 500 knots, totally they have to print 18121 knots after the demonetization, because they have a stock of around some 4000 crore or 2000 something only 2000 knots with them, so I am just giving you two scenarios, these two scenarios actually after the 2011, I am taking that the regular pattern of their printing, that they are actually adopting for the last five years, Mysore, Salboni is working two ships, Nasiq and Devas they are working maximum, they can print maximum these two process can print 66.9 million knots per day, in that, if that is the case, they will take around 271 days to print all these currencies, 6 August 2017 is the date, otherwise you think that because Nasiq and Devas they cannot push them, but Mysore and Salboni belongs to the Reserve Bank, they can go for pre-shift, pre-shift is also a problem, because it is a high security printing process, you cannot hire a Deca and Harry there and put them into this as your work force, because there is a risk involved, the security involved, this guy will go out and he will start printing himself, so the existing work force, they can ask them to work for two weeks or three weeks, beyond that who will work for three ships, you have a manpower of using for only two ships, even than we are assuming, that itself will take another 204 days, so I just yesterday I was looking in the another data, so this is since I am just currency on circulation on 411 2016 is around 17 billion, so it is 17.977 billion and the SBN on circulation, this is a replay given to the parliament, it is 15.44, so from this we can see that the lower denomination on circulation was around 2.577 billion, the difference between these two, the latest RBI data, RBI reveals that the currency on circulation on 3117 is 9500 billion, so HDI on circulation, high definition nodes, these high denomination nodes, you reduce this 2.577 from that one, you will get it is 7.25, that is 47 percent of the actually, they actually demonetize 15.44, so it is 7.25, but interestingly you look into the data RBI given in RTA, they have given schedule that it is around 4.946 billion, they have printed on 811, so you just reduce this 7.25 and they have only pushed between 811 for the last 66 days, after the demonetization between 1317, they have only able to pump only high definition, this high denomination only 2.3 billion, 2300 billion only they have, and the remaining is 8000, how many days you just calculate, so almost more than three times, around three times, it will take 180 days, I don't know if they are having a magic one with them, I don't know, so now the question, how I actually look into this one, I actually when I am looking into certain things, there is annual reports of RBI, I have taken everything from 2000 onwards, I downloaded it is from their website, then there are a lot of working group reports, that is the expert reports RBI taken for their studies or then there is, this is the major thing, the data based on Indian economy, this is a warehouse of information, the problem with that one is that plenty of information is that you how to yourself to find that which one is shooting you, because the data is just like a sea, then there are pressaries and circulates, then there are act and rules are there, then I went to the finance ministry also, they are having so many committee and study reports, the latest one is the vatal committee report, then there, they said notifications are circulates are available there, then this the press, the nasik and they was press, actually that is security print mill company India limited, their annual report is available under the finance ministry, then they are having financial inspection unit and CBC, CBDT all these are under there, then I actually also went to the parliament to see the question answer from so many years, I search that one and there are house panel reports also there, then I also, because this basically I collected those information from Google scholar, I don't go for general Google search, always look for some authentic information rather than the press report, I know the problem with the journalist, they don't have enough time and we are not letting them to do the research also, so they are actually quoting somebody, because that is my experience when I am dealing with mollaparyar, some very good journalist they are coming with me, they are not understanding the jargant, because that is a esoteric subject whatever I am saying they are producing, sometimes they are producing there may be 0.21 g will become 2.1 g, so I don't want to, actually I will take the reports actually as a point rule, then I will go back to the these things, I have seen a lot of studies, well bank studies, we saw Mastercard, Fletcher School, Boston consulting group and Google, Mackenzie, CDFI, IIT, Mumbai, then there are you how there is another good database is Centre Statistical Organization and National Crime Records Bureau, they are having a lot of information, then I used only Excel, many people ask me what are the tools, actually Excel I am used with Excel under this pivot table facility of Excel, I used to do my data crunching mostly, then I think how much time, how many time remain, how much time remain, okay, okay, okay, five more minutes I will take, there is a talk that this, everything is telling that India is having a high currency GDP ratio, we are looking at the US, this is the, this is actually taken from a working study, working report on that one, I don't have the latest one but you can see that, Japan is having around 18.1 and we are they are saying we are having around 30, so Thailand is also having, all these economics are actually, they are actually, they are also growing economics and what are the things actually, you are actually, this is actually exercise I have done because when I read the, this what will come to report, they are telling that the currency GDP ratio is 12.04% but the source they are not mentioning but under that one they are actually, I was looking where they got the data, actually I am looking the data, the present one is around 10.86 or something like that, that's the currency with the public and the GDP at the currency market price, this I have taken from the handbook of statistics of Indian economy 2015-16 which is published by RBI, it is available in there, this is from this table I created this graph, then there is currency with the public but maybe, I thought that okay they may be taken that actually from the currency in circulation, if you are looking at the currency in circulation this will only become 11 points something, it's not going to be 12.04% and it's actually is this a factor, I was looking because another factor, this is for the last 5 years RBI is not talking about, RBI is not showing this graph, there is a graph actually, there is currency versus broad money actually, currency in circulation, actually if you look into that one, it is getting reduced what is broad money, broad money is actually the currency with the public plus your savings bank account and your current bank account, it is called the demand money, then your fixed deposit take it as time deposit, altogether is broad money that means the currency is your deposits are increasing actually and you look this is the position in 71-72 the currency versus broad money was around 37% actually 2012 it becomes around 17-18, so why it is happened because we are having a lot of baggy, so people started sharing on that one, now what is the factors affecting currency demand, it is the only thing you have to look because everyone is telling about the currency GDP ratio, there are certain things economic sorry there is a reputation, economic, technological, cultural and sociological factors that influence currency demand currency demand that differ across countries, US they are having a different type of population, their style of using currency is different and we are having a huge population, so there is the cross-country variation growth inflation, interest rates, the rate of direct and indirect prices, share of informal and underground economy in the overall economic activity influences, organization of economic activity, dominance, retail business all these things are actually influencing your currency demand now look into the data, actually what the committee is saying that okay and there is a big talk that if you are cashless or the digital payments are actually greasy, manifold we are going to have huge, the cash we will crush the cash, 50 percent we are telling that now it is 12.4 within 3 years they are aiming to make it 6 percent but this is a study done by the visa, visa is on their own interest, visa is their market they are actually cherry picking the doctor and that is not their kind, they are business people, this is their study, they are telling that if you are actually this PCE, PCE is personal consumption expenditure that is the thing comes under your use of debit cards, credit cards and mobile wallets, forget about NAFT, the automatic check clearance all those things you forget about that one, so if it is increasing from this 4 percent to 36 percent almost 9 times, then you can reduce the cash in circulation from 11 percent to 10 percent within 5 years, this is actually this is the study this report is available here, you can get it from Google the accelerating the growth of digital payments in India 5 years outlook, what the committee is also cherry picking the data, they are saying that this what they are telling for total investment of around 60,000 crores in 5 years, India's could reduce its cost of cash from 1.7 to 1. I don't know where from where they are telling this, this is they are factoring a lot of other things, but if you are looking into the printing of the currency, the storing of the currency and the logistics all together, every year our extractor is spending around 12,000 crores to 15,000 crores if you are looking into the last years data, the credit card companies itself done a business of around 4,000,000 crores, take it is 2.5 percent they got a transaction fees of around 10,000 crores out of that whole and they are talking that you have a huge inverse when we are looking into the data you are they are telling you that you are actually going to those 10,000 or 15,000 crores per year, but I don't I never find any relevance on this one, but they are telling that you could save around 70,000 crores in next 5 years for that one you have to inverse around 60,000 crores so in 5 years you can 70,000 you how to your you inverse 60,000 crores you will save 70,000 crores so the net saving is only 10,000 crores in the 5 years then increase in numbers accept 10 points now we are having only around 15 lakh POS they want to increase as 40 lakhs then this will happen and about you want to put everything around 40.9 million households to the additional sorry I put further to that one you have to put 40.9 million people into the financial system final words cash is there cash is the actually it is for the last 2,600 years it is the dominant form of currency it is a challenging because you have to remove the wheel and you want to fly so there is a leapfrog you have to do whether the systems are in place I don't know so it should be left for the stakeholders whether they want to transact with the cash or digital form okay I I finished my presentation and you can ask any doubts thank you James that was a very illuminating presentation so now we will take a few questions from the audience anybody has any particular queries hi my name is Tanmay you just mentioned in your final words that you know there are 40.9 million households households to be included in the financial system can I know you know what is the source of this number how did you come upon this number they are telling this is the study by the visa actually when they are telling that in 5 years if you are actually if you want to reduce your currency circulation from 11 to 10% you have to add this much in between these 5 years that's their data I am not taking any other data because this data is laid by the vatal committee because most of the they are actually there is a first their first chapter is cash is costly to prove that one they are actually using certain study reports by the fintech companies it is a helicopter study I can tell you that because these people have not done anything they don't go to the ground and the government has not done any studies there are study reports by RBA one natchikethamore report is there and there is some study report by chakrabarty one working group report is there why the currency is required I am not a digital payment I am a person who started using credit cards since 1994 but it is a choice of me I will do that its own disadvantage but if you are telling I will tell one example my chairman is a person who is using he is a retired chief engineer he is using internet I think since 1996 or 1980 he is conversing with me on email but he still does not have an ATM card he is afraid to use that he is afraid to he thinks that he is having some security problem he is having his own mortal fear about that last day also he wants to buy something online he asked me to do something and he will give me the money that is the problem with that that is the mental block of a person who is a chief engineer who served as a chief engineer and very educated person he thinks about the people the rural population how this is they are going to adapt to this technology very good you can digital transactions will help the government to an extent you would ask one question but I am having on that one your question 40.9 household we are talking about this prime minister's J. D. Y. Jendan Yojana actually it started financial inclusion was there there was a vision 2018 is there we are having an act payment and settlement act started in 2007 we are looking into before the new government comes around the 23 crore people were already they are having basic this bank account the problem with this one I am seeing that one because now a lot of people are actually how the money comes to their account there is no ceiling actually if you are investing more than 50,000 otherwise if somebody is putting money in your account with the convenience of the bank manager you don't know you don't know somebody can invest the money on that one they can put before the demonetization if somebody knows making a some hypothetical thing somebody was actually investing 40,000 40,000 above 50,000 only you have to show your bank card and other things otherwise you can deposit there the bank officers can give the money next day they can deposit and they can withdraw who is going to know that second thing is that one two three days back I am surprised I got an SMS from my bank they told that some money in your salary was seeped into a recurrent I was totally surprised without my permission they are doing that one this is your corporate salary account we are going to give you some more 2.5% interest and these are the some frills they are telling that these are available but I told fine everything is fine but when you are actually shifting my SB account to a recurring deposit account or a high interest earning account you should take my permission we are having some arrangement with my parent organization KACB that is between you and them that is only they are only putting money in my account but the account belongs to me and you are not taking permission that happens to a person like me you can you can see that how it is going to happen to others this is conceptually in terms of economic concepts cash to GDP as a cross country comparison is flawed because the structure of GDP in different economies are different like for instance in India we have 90% of employment in India is in informal activities that is one secondly the ticket size of transactions in such an economy would be very small it goes with informality that the ticket sizes would be very small this is one secondly the cultural factors and so on that you mentioned even by these comparisons Russia, Switzerland which don't figure in your table even Singapore comes pretty close to India these are all have high cash prevalence in transactions now to say that these are wrong and these are bad is flawed so this cash to GDP is deeply flawed and quite apart from the fact that you distinguish between the broad money and the narrow money this cash to GDP is a very serious anomaly it cannot be used in making comparisons across countries sure just like that asking you that Americans are wearing suits you have to wear suits everyday you can't tell that you can't tell that the people to wear that because you are showing the US and telling the people that tomorrow onwards you have to wear a top and midi just like that they are actually comparing apples with orange they are giving an impression that this is the only factor the currency with this GDP ratio is the only factor governing the currency you are actually required in the economy GDP is actually this currency is actually the fuel actually driving the economy you are taking that out we will see in the coming days how much our economy is crushed the rural and retail economy they can't even done now you are looking into the things government themselves I don't give any data I only looked into the November data published by the RB that's the only fully data December data will come at the end of this month January 31st only we will get in part one every other digital payment going down credit card if you are looking into the credit card except the debit card use in POS it has increased but how much it's increased around 30% that's all and this is a forced one because you have no choice once you have a choice you will decide what you will do that's a you how to left with the people you how to make your digital payment subtractive definitely people will adapt slowly that will be a choice left with me or you you can't tell that I will remove cash I will one day morning I can bring this one can we take some more questions that lady oh sorry and then that hi this is Gangadhar so when we are talking about digital currency it makes me think about what happened with their media being sort of open to being manipulated from outside I am wondering how like an external player can influence our financial economy by the fact that everything is digital a simple way can be knock off the telecom providers and then suddenly you can't transact that already happens when we have natural disasters government will force themselves sorry otherwise government themselves shutting down in manipur or Kashmir they are shutting down the internet services just to add on from your point itself India has the maximum number of internet shutdowns anywhere in the world I think in 1 year 37 instances of internet shutdowns happened in India for various reasons and from the slightly ludicrous exams are happening to serious loan order issues we don't need foreign intervention we have had 37 internet shutdowns right so where I am going with this is it increases the attack vectors on the country itself from external entities then be me as a normal citizen what can I do to protect myself in case of let's say there is a hurricane coming and I know that it's coming so what do I do do I hold up cash at that point like hoarding up on food and water so has anybody thought about it or did you see anything in the what all report I am just curious about that see you talk about natural calamities I am very much into disaster management for past several years you see that only the thing only the natural calamity you can actually predict the cyclone before 7 days you will get a warning time you don't have a warning time for your earthquake you don't have a warning time for few hours for to happen a storm just like happened in that Mumbai and other places that you see gets under that places so how this digital economy is going to actually digital going to help you we don't know the government actually in the beginning they say about cashless but they corrected themselves because none of the documents neither this visa must nobody is using that word cashless they always use the term less cash after some days government because they are changing that one now looking into another aspect because anybody is having any question there was one more question hi my name is bungalow my audience so my question is that a significant part of the narrative primarily focuses on the retail transactions and the purchasing power and the like so when you talk about someone having a choice about whether to use cash versus digital I still think at that point it makes it is personal choice but given that a significant amount of our country is still unbanked they don't have bank accounts individual bank accounts even the jandan yudhna I don't think they are necessarily transacting or access to it is very limited and a significant informal sector the unorganized sector they continue to get paid wages as cash that actually puts them at significant risk because it is just not accounted and the employer actually has way more control and power and privilege so I find that the point of view of just looking at retail transactions and purchasing power is sort of one sided because the urban population has the luxury of possibly having multiple bank accounts and multiple digital transactions just the facility of it but not looking at the rural sector and just looking at it from this one sided point that they get to transact and cash and taking away that liberty without looking at this other aspect that you are limiting how they can get their wages and actually taking away the control from these power centers isn't that like another perspective we should even be looking at yeah we are not looking them we are actually because there is one problem is also there basically the media is rather than the print print is also now emulating the electronic media very few print journalists are actually going into the electronic media is only concentrated on the urban centers they are actually projecting the urban center information in future we are actually watching the news they are only concentrating on this urban population it is business wise also they are also looking that the digital payments if these people are actually they are those people they know that the rural population is not going to adapt digital anytime soon but they are looking that if they can actually take some urban population into this digital that is their business the business is last year they have done 4 lakh crore credit and debit cards if it is multiplying twice their revenues actually doubling so they are actually looking into that these people are actually becoming guinea pigs the rural people actually I can know one example from my family my uncle is a contractor he is employing around 50 Bengalis and he stopped the work because they want the money in cash there was no cash he told them that once the situation normalize you can come back just like that the money is stopped then another narrative is they are telling that 15.44 lakh crore is issued only 50% will come back the rest will be black money and fake currency one question this fake currency is not accounted in the 15.44 lakh there will be black money a component is stored in the cash but that is only full people most of the people who are actually making the cash money they will divert it to some other form fake currency if you are having more than 5 numbers of fake currency the bank will they are forced to file an FIR so it happens and you look into the data there is no we don't get any fake currency only information actually released by is the state bank the amount of fake currency they got trapped in the entire demonetization process is 0.000 307% otherwise last year itself reserve bank and other banking system they got 0.0018% fake currency detected in their system annually thank you very much Mr. Wilson we had a very entertaining and very interesting discussion