 Okay, everybody, it's 12.15 and welcome to this week's webinar with myself Jasper Lawler on Bar for CMC Markets. Quite a lot of things going on this week, so glad you could attend. We've got the risk warnings on the screen that we're going to look at first. If you have any questions at any point, certainly feel free to send them through the chat or the Q&A box and I'm happy to answer as best I can. So you can see we're red across equity markets today. I'm hoping a few of you managed to read my morning update. Basically, it's just you've got risk aversion here, so any of you who are long gold, any of you who are short equities, any of you who are long the yen, you know, you're doing well, maybe long bonds, short yields, that's all risk aversion type stuff. Why is that risk aversion? Well, specifically when we're looking at sterling, you know, we can highlight the Brexit risks. Now, there were some polls showing the biggest lead for leaving the EU that we've seen so far, but also there's a lot of stuff going on for the UK economy this week. On Tuesday we've got inflation data, Wednesday we've got unemployment data and wage data and on Thursday, of course, we've got the Bank of England. So there's some selling going in ahead of that data and ahead of the Bank of England meet. The data for the UK, if we look last week at the industrial production, for example, retail sales before that have been pretty decent. So I'm not sure that this is selling in the pound necessarily ahead of inflation data. Oil price has obviously been rising and the other data has been okay. We've seen a bit of a growth slowdown, so that could impact inflation and maybe that growth slowed down again, could weigh in on unemployment. It seems like businesses are actually those more hesitant ahead of the referendum than consumers so much, but even that seems to be vaguely limited looking at that industrial production data. So maybe there's been a bit of a hold back on hiring before the referendum. I'm fairly doubtful of that to be honest. I don't think it'll be anything substantial. So while we're on the matter, why not just have a look at sterling because that's one of the big, big, big movers that we've seen. This is the chart that I've had on for a while. Now we've been in this holding pattern since we collapsed when the vote was first announced, the data of the vote was announced. We crashed all the way down, but we've not got really back below those 138s, 139s lows. We've basically fallen into a trading pattern. We had a few, it looked like a week or so ago that actually the remain camp was well ahead. The polls have changed since then. We've seen a big drop in sterling and obviously last week was a particularly big one. Suddenly getting hammered with phone calls as soon as I start a webinar. So we highlighted in last week that there was a couple of areas of potential support. Obviously we got down and we basically already tested this 14340 type area on that drop there. And so this rebound to the ties which we then failed at, once we'd found that support but then failed again at the resistance of this trading range area, it did increase the odds that we're going to drop through that support. Obviously that happened pretty spectacularly on Friday and we followed through on that today. So there was a bit of a pause at the 142 round number. So I think this formally broken trend line, we held above that last week but we've actually gapped onto the trend line and below it today, suggesting that to me looks like 14050. This support down here, obviously the lows, we're only 50 odd pips away from that anyway. That looks fairly likely that that kind of area is going to get challenged. We're already well down there on the 141 but 140 is obviously the big round number. I think we come pretty close out again. There's going to be chop and change with the poles. So Sterling is no doubt tricky to trade at the moment. I think we've probably got to say that it's going to be in this choppy trading range until we have the result. By default, an in-vote decent for Sterling and an out-vote bad for Sterling, I think that's a fair assumption. What probably is worth noting as well is that the Bank of England are going to be on hold for a while with the Fed on hold and with the UK economy looking a little bit shakier and a natural sort of dovish inclination on the BOE. In my opinion, they're going to be holding on for a while. That is a net negative for Sterling. Even if the referendum turns out all right from a Sterling perspective, it may not be that we've made much progress beyond 147. So difficulty with the sharp turn down here is that we've obviously to some extent missed the boat. We've had a decent rebound off the lows. So if you are still looking to try and capture some downside, I would say there's risk here but the fact that we're below this declining trend line that was broken now we're back below it suggests that the trend is still down. That was a good technical barrier and really all you need to do is just pull down to the lower timeframes and see if we can find some pullbacks from these former areas. We've also, we already had a little bit from 142.30. Obviously if we could get back up to these peaks at 142.70, look for any turnaround in that area. If not there, then back to this consolidation point at the 143.30, the 40 area that we previously mentioned. Well, on the subject of FX, we've obviously got the Fed this week. That is event numero uno for markets and the fact that we've been getting a bit of a rebound in the dollar recently certainly weighs on other markets. Rebound in the dollar, that's negative for oil. Obviously oil has been a big scare factor for markets but it also affects China. China devalued their currency at the fix by about two handles today. That was quite a big drop basically in the value of the Chinese yuan against the dollar as the People's Bank of China set it back down close to those lows that we saw this year which were actually in themselves five year lows. That feeds again into that devaluation story with the Chinese yuan. That devaluation happens as the dollar goes up in value. China has to then devalue against the dollar because it's pegged. China has to bring that exchange rate lower in order to stay competitive. Because the dollar is a big part of the basket of currencies that they monitor, they have to devalue against the dollar to keep that basket in line. That devaluation risk comes back into play when the dollar is rising. I don't think the dollar has much basis for rising and maybe what we could see this week is if the Fed are fairly hesitant and dovish, then this dollar rally eases up and maybe that benefits the risk on behavior in markets. Keeping in mind that last week we came as high as one percent of the record highs in US stocks. Let's just have a look at the US 30 while we're at it. This is typically where I start things anyway, but let's just get back to where we normally are. This is the range that we've been looking at for a long time. It's acting fairly orderly. Here was the first warning sign obviously with the benefit of hindsight, but we had the support. We've got a false break. If you bought just on this hammer type pattern at the lows here on the 19th of May, you're laughing now obviously. You pretty much made 17,400 up to 600 points just on that little reversal at support. Trading can be simple, but obviously you get a bit worried on the journey. Technically things worked out quite smoothly. We hit the resistance. We pulled back to the resistance. We came back, hit the broken declining trend line, and we pushed up and made a new high, but we're now pulling back from the round number of 18,000. Here's the record peaks from pretty much this time last year. This is understandably a big area of resistance. I have to say I'm mindful of the next big turn lower. We've not quite got the makings for it yet. We're still making higher highs and higher lows. I'm still positive on the market now, but I'm mindful of us making the big turn lower inside this trading range. As I said, as we hit this 18K mark, that was within 1%, so you can't exactly really describe us in a state of risk-off markets in terms of US stocks. Little bit different when it comes to stocks on the continent, obviously. Let's have a look at the FTSE here. We've had this support in for a while. I've not changed this trend line since I first drew it in against this low in May, and we've held it again nicely today. I mentioned in the chart forum that I would say, given that we've got this highs in April, we've come down, we've challenged the support multiple times it holds. Good. Move up, retest the 200-day moving average. Try and take out that peak from May 31st, fail to do so, and nowhere close even to taking out the April peak, and now we're back down at the support again for what you could call a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8th time. We're well overdue breaking the support at this point. I think you've got to temper what time frame you're trading off here, and you've got to manage the risk because we've already come down fairly big in the last couple of days, three days including today, but I think the odds are that we're going to break the support. That's my feeling on this, and so if we do that, then to me the next logical area would be this, this low that we put in in December, which has acted a bit of a pivot point, kind of a tertiary break, a down retest, up and above, not so much, but then a retest there. So to me that lines up. Obviously we've got 6,000 below, so we could get a false break down to 6,000. Now up again, depending on how the polls go, global risk sentiment, what the Fed says, that's fairly feasible, but I think the support gives way, even if it is a false break, but my sense is that the next logical area of support again is that 5, 8, 6, 5. Again we're in a trading range, so pick an extended periods of direction one way or the other, this is not the opportune market for trading the trend right now, the FTSE 100, it's choppy as hell. And so, you know, this is just a matter of your own trading style, do you just regularly trade the UK 100, in which case okay, so you're stuck on this market, you have to trade what you get. If you're not stuck on the UK 100 and you're open to trading at the diverse range of markets, look to something that's trending, because this is really a mess at the moment. We've got a nice support at 6,050, but as I said it's, I think it's a good chance for it breaking, it's tricky to call at the moment. Germany 30 looking even weaker, so you can see this is, again had this area of support in since we put these series of lows in here, we've got a nice rebound off, it got above the 200 day, again similar to the FTSE bounce it off the 200 day, but we just haven't even taken out the May, same thing, you haven't taken out the May 31st peak, let alone the April peak, rolled over, broken the fairly well defined rising trend line, and as of today we gapped down beneath this support area here, so this support has completely given way as of now. If we get it close up above this gap, that would actually be a pretty positive development, a gap down and then close above, that's actually more of a bullish reversal, but we're not there yet, but we need to be open to the idea, just because we open down here in itself is a very sign, but you know beware of where we close, but I think you can see it's fairly clear cut on the chart that the next support is the round number 9500 with these two lows from back in April and March being the sort of defining price support, but this you know I've mentioned previously that this is a bearish pattern and we have broken out down to the downside, so things are kind of making sense if you like on the Germany 30, again it's choppy range trading conditions, but you know that we were in a bit of a trend and obviously the fact that we couldn't even take out this high, when theoretically if this pattern was to be holding we should be heading up right here for a challenge, you know that obviously has not in any sense the word happened, so you know we're in at the very very least we're in range trading conditions here, not a strong uptrend. Not so much in the way of Euro data this week, very much a focus on the UK, but also the US, I think the dollar index has maybe fallen off my chart because I think it was a June expiry, so we're on to September now, but if I just go here, if I add this back to my, what's going on, always a risk when you do this sort of thing live, okay let's slide that into my watch list over here, so we'll have a quick look at the dollar, I mean I was a personal preference so I don't actually trade the index, so you know the euro is a big component of the index and you get some of the bigger moves against the individual currencies, yeah like I said this this index this contract has not been live for that long, but we only got a bit of data on this, but you can see as I was talking about last week a couple of big jump-up days in the dollar index and I would say uncoincidentally big sell-off in markets at the same time in stocks, but again just based on US economic data and based on comments from the Fed, not that much justification for dollar strength at the moment, you know the only real arguable reason for dollar strength is that you're still comparable to Europe and the UK which faces its own set of risks maybe on a relative basis, still there's some safety to be had by moving into US assets, so I think that's you know that's you know that's why the dollar acts as a haven in times of uncertainty, so that that sort of haven type basis relative outperformance even though its performance itself is kind of weak the US economy could be a reason for dollar strength, but obviously a lot of will depend on what the Fed and how they how they tune their wordage and it's always very hard to guess exactly, it always makes sense to my experience to lean on the make some dubious assumptions, but the Fed could leave July the July meeting on the table, I'm doubtful of that based on the recent speech from Janet Yellen in Philadelphia, I tend to think there's gonna be a very vague reference of the next few months which perhaps leave September on the table, so let's move small specifically into effects we've looked at sterling but well let's have a look at the yen because obviously we've got the Bank of Japan meeting this week as well that's on Thursday, early hours Thursday, I'll look at Dolly and also look at sterling yen, I mentioned on Twitter that sterling yen has been absolutely smashed, you know you might have seen it yourselves, but failed breakout of the declining trend line here on the Dolly yen, so again one of those were you know if you bought here on the the break of the trend line potentially could have been a good move but actually we failed at the resistance, it wasn't a high probability move but depending on your strategy if you trade trend line breaks you have to take them, you know okay so the so actually we've got an inside day where this this candlestick fit inside this daily candlestick and then we've got a breakdown the next day back below the trend line so hopefully you know this is the thing with trading if this was a failed trade for you, you bought on a break out there you know maybe had your stop under the lows then it got taken out on this candlestick hopefully you've got the where the walls think okay things have changed we're back below the 21 or whatever's that the 50-day moving average back below the the trend line more importantly inside day breakdown lets less change directions and then you've got opportunities and now we're back down right at the support so if you've been you know taking profits around 106 you know you're laughing on the short side so we are back at the I mentioned last week that I thought we were heading back down to these lows but I did say that I think we maybe get where maybe we hold them you know maybe a false break lower down to 105 our support that we've been mentioning for a while which is basically already been hit but you know 105 30 maybe we get a little drop through that down close to 105 and then a pop so just kind of these scenarios scenarios available in your mind there's different ways of playing that you can obviously have an order resting down near 105 I would say perhaps a more prudent approach is wait for some confirmation off 105 before deciding to assume that this is a rangebound market rather than outright downtrend as far as the Bank of Japan meeting they have surprised recently by nature by turning rates negative that was not well received by markets and so be surprising if they were if they've doubled down and and did that again really I think the only thing to be well received by markets would be if they if you if they enacted some sort of extra quantitative easing but the political support for this policy is starting to run out in Japan you know they are literally buying ETFs they own a good chunk of the the JGB bond market they're running out of space to be able to do anything more I'd be surprised if they if they do anything really interventionist particularly after this G7 meeting recently as well where there was a bit of a sort of bias against intervening in currency markets coming from the US so to my mind the BOJ are gonna sit and do nothing and you know maybe reconsider the situation once we're below 100 if we get below 100 but let's have a look at euro as I mentioned not so much in the way euro data so pretty much going to get driven by the by the Fed choppy difficult markets you know in general we're near the top of this historical trading range and the sell orders the higher probability so we had a sell off at 114 you know I didn't particularly highlight that area in my chart you know I think the 114 146 30 114 60 sorry misreading the numbers here 114 60 a bit higher probability into the 115's would truly be the top of the range so what we'll have to see how we go from here obviously dovish Fed long euro sorry dovish Fed short euro and you know hawkish Fed vice versa but again that same principle in terms of talking about I know the euro dollar is one of the most popular products and you know short term it's a different affair and I know some of you use this webinar for short term trading just a bit get a bit of a longer term outlook not necessarily for any specific levels a bit more just general bias for you guys obviously you know there's always a short term trading opportunities every day but you know on that longer term looking for a trend nature you know I'm I wouldn't be looking at this mark at the moment there's issues is chopville I did mention I would look at sterling yen so we basically got down to 150 in sterling we've actually bounced 40 odd pips from from the lows 30 of pips also we actually dipped below 150 I didn't even see that so that that happened in the last hour or so so we've hit that big round number support potentially got further to go if we're going to challenge this declining trend line but it's only two touches not too much to that just something to be aware of we're obviously also coming up to this RSI trend line so potentially a bit further to go really the only thing you got going for you on this if you're going long here is that we hit the 150 mark so round numbers by themselves not really a reason enough to to go along the currency my bias is that the Bank of Japan not doing any more easing so that's that's positive yen and obviously stocks are selling off yen is a haven currency is a safe haven so about five minutes left of the webinar at this point any cues send them through but another big factor that I can't remember if I mentioned at the start of the webinar but oil back below 50 so I've been highlighting this divergence we got another pop through the rising trend line I'd highlighted a pop through the diverging RSI line but we're back below it now so that's that's a bit negative what I had mentioned previously is that we you know it made a bit more sense when we hadn't had that big nice run up above 50 but still to some extent we're got this rising price trend line and we've got this RSI line so RSI normally a leading indicator obviously gives false signals but we're below that rising RSI line and the next test would be this rising price trend line here so to get down there would be quite a big drop-off so maybe some you know maybe some dip buyers down there but if we do finally give up on that rising trend line you know that may be the confirmation that 50 it is the short-term top gold is gold's been a lot of fun gold has been a you know a great market for trading also a bit range bound but it's just held the range very well so here was them here was the one area considered to be the bottom of the range and then here is the the one and 190 we basically came down in the mid of those two supports you know you could argue that we basically came off 1200 so we're two areas of support we hit the mid of those two supports which happens to be the round number we bounced pretty aggressively we're right back up to the top of the range and gold it's still at this point though you know even though at the moment it feels like everything is is risk-off keep in mind that just a week and a half ago everything felt very bullish and the gold was selling off so that can sentiment can change on a dime and we're basically running back up into this area that we they're kind of triggered the sell-off in the first place which is the sort of one to 90 kind of area I'm assuming we're going up to test one one 300 but you've got some sort of pretty a pretty short-term outlook with some controlled stops to begin along at this point because we've had a big old run up four days of gains but actually we're up for six days out of the last seven with a big old move almost up well up $90 so that's that's pretty huge certainly that you know we've had a false break to the downside but keep in mind again not too distant history where we basically had a break to the false break to the top side so kind of we've had it both both areas of the range here anyone trading the breakouts not loving gold anyone who's doing trading the range loving gold so I think that's about it we pretty much hit the 30-minute mark so thank you very much for attending it's going to be a fun we've got the central bank meetings obviously they're going to be the the main drivers but always back below 50 we'll have to see if that can hold and it's you know we've seen bond yields at record lows so will the German bund drop below 0% into negative the German 10-year that'll be a big question market markets could all happen this week so hopefully there's be some action for you to trade but thanks very much for attending and good luck with trading just below the signing out