 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire Dot com where today we are getting you set for week 15 in the NFL from NFL from a betting perspective as Ed and I are going through what we think about these games and breaking down our leans on week 15's biggest games My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power rank dot com at it is week 15 the playoffs on the horizon Things starting to crystallize from a playoff perspective. How are you doing today? I'm doing pretty well looking forward to another good week of NFL action. You know, we haven't missed the game yet So let's keep it rolling and yeah should be a great week a lot of good Yeah, somehow no games missed thus far it's been interesting year so far We've seen teams moving and shaking the Baltimore Ravens initially seemed like they were going to be this powerhouse team They had a fun game Monday, then it was the Steelers who were all the rage and right Ed ever since he had that video on Twitter about the Steelers They're going to man Yeah, so I mean they they weren't really was supposed to lose the Washington and they did so that was kind of good and Then you know, I mean the markets moved to Buffalo as a two-point favorite in that game very tight in the first half and then You know Buffalo did you know Buffalo? Isn't the perfect NFL team, but right now they do if you want to do one thing well in the NFL It's throw the ball. Yeah, and that's one thing that Buffalo can do and they did just enough of it To get by the Steelers Steelers didn't get any defensive touchdowns didn't get enough turnovers so Yeah, I Mean that buffalo is the way things have happened after that video, right? But it also comes in the heels of your Carson Wentz prediction of him throwing more picks so it's a good year to be Ed I think that's the big takeaway here a lot of good predictions out of you We'll see if we get some more good predictions about week 15 here in just a bit But first looking for some college football thoughts for this week and thoughts on the conference championship games We had Adam Kramer on the podcast yesterday Adam was Fantastic had a lot of good thoughts on those conference championships You can find that by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Make sure you are subscribed and while you're there leave us a rating and review as well next week We'll have one show previewing the week 16 NFL slate that'll be up on Tuesday evening Getting you stuff for those so hopefully we can get ahead of some early line move more for once which would be pretty cool So looking forward to that make sure you're subscribed to get that podcast as we go live We'll go back to college stuff as we get set for the college football playoff the following week Now before we take a look at week 15. We do got to go back to week 14 We had Olivia Moody on the show to break down week 14 and Olivia had some good insights on the Washington football team before They had themselves a really good week Covering the past Selassie we had Olivia Moody on the show She was saying that she liked the Washington football team both from a futures perspective and within their game with the 49ers She had Washington plus three and a half against the 49ers They did close the three so have the point of movement there and even with Alex Smith getting hurt during the game Washington was able to cover and get the win there and we talked with Olivia last week and at the time They were plus money to win the NFC East They're now minus 260 because the Giants lost their game the Washington won and now the Giants may not have Colt McCoy But the problem that is that Washington may not have Alex Smith But either way good recommendations for Olivia there Yeah, absolutely. I mean, yeah, my numbers sided on that a little bit I think I think they had San Francisco by two in a game in which the spread was three So but yeah, I think when you when you look at those two teams and we're gonna get into the Giants a little bit later in the show Yeah, you you want to side with Washington They're they're put together in a better way and we'll get into that later And I think that it is a downgrade for sure from Alex Smith that had Dwayne Haskins But it's potentially could be for just this week and honestly like the the efficiency metrics between them aren't all that different I think the advantage of Alex Smith is that he's probably less prone to blow-ups And if you have that good defense, you will want less volatility You want the more stable force because you can get by on that Whereas Haskins may be a bit more volatile But it's not a huge drop-off either way big game with Seattle coming up this week, too Yeah, absolutely. I think the markets would disagree with you a little bit there. They like Alex Smith More than Dwayne Haskins and I think for good reason. Yeah, I I'm just basing it off for the efficiency numbers But like, you know, if you watch it you can kind of understand why that's the case You can understand why markets would favor Alex Smith over Dwayne Haskins But either way good recommendation by Olivia there and we'll see if Washington can close the deal and get that future Done for her as well. We both have thoughts on that buck's a Vikings game Olivia was on the buck's money line at minus three ten I wanted the Vikings plus six and a half and the money line Never in question easy win there for Olivia good recommendation by her. I could have gotten that cover ad But Dan Daly missed three field goals and an extra point That's ten points off the board the Vikings lost by 12. So that was super fun I was not hateful the entire day as a result of Dan Bailey by any means Bailey also at the liviah get the under at 52 and a half. So Dan Bailey really good to Olivia Not as nice to me. So Olivia correctly diagnosed that game. I am left wondering why the Vikings hate me I think that's actually the correct. It's not they hate good kickers that they hate me specifically here. They hate you personally. Yeah Not like he's losing any money in his next contract or whatnot on that performance, but right Exactly. So, uh, Dan Bailey and I Dan Bailey will no longer get a Christmas card. That's what I'll say there Olivia and I were also on the same side for the Steelers Bill's game. We talked about before that didn't go well for either of us She had the Steelers plus one and a half. I had the Steelers money line at plus 124 along with the over at 46 and a half and The weather wound up being bad in that game which made the total look a bit tougher But even with the weather the total still closed at 49 So I got two and a half points of movement there the Steelers money line closed at plus one ten at Fandall sports books So the markets did move towards us But the result Very much did not the Steelers offense was bad again the bills won by 11 the under hit two I was like holding out hope that the Steelers amount this big comeback Push that game towards the over get me that money line win just a rough week across the board here and I think that we had talked about this game a bit at last week where you were like, okay Like I was against Steelers before but I I think I can understand the thought process and trying to buy low But like yeah, they just look bad man. They look bad. Yeah, I mean, I think they're just going through You know I mean they're going through the struggles that that any NFL team goes through right and the struggles that you kind of Don't see when you're 11-0 and and 5-0 and one score games and getting defensive touchdowns like they were So it's not like the Steelers are a bad football team by any stretch, right? I mean that defense is legit And you're going to see them win some games and be a threat in the playoffs Uh, it's they're just going through some rough times And they have been not kind uh to me over this past week. So Steelers, uh, again, no Christmas cards for them You and Olivia were both on the Ravens minus two and a half against the Browns two and a half being the key there Because that that closed at Baltimore minus three Which is obviously a key number and the safety didn't wind up mattering for you too You had the cover regardless. You were all set. So kudos on that You were going to cover regardless But the Ravens covered minus three two Thanks to the safety in the final play Fandall sportsbook though did give a bad beat refund people would bet the Browns plus three Or plus four and a half and stuff like that. So like even if you had that it wound up being fine But you know, you were kind of safe regardless unless they'd pull the Rutgers scored in that final play basically Yeah, I mean, I bet this at at Baltimore minus one And so I I kind of talked to you about like having just the best week ever in closing line movement and like 500 week, but this was a game in which it actually worked out, right? Um, some of the underlying metrics actually favored Cleveland when I looked at it afterwards Like, I mean, it was a close game kind of could have taken a couple plays, uh But what I think Baltimore is a really interesting team, right because they come at you in a Like they're the complete curveball in what they want to do. They're gonna try to run it in the ground They're gonna use the athleticism of a mar Jackson and and you don't prepare for that any week, right? And I still think I mean as much as they struggle I can see them being a pretty tough out I mean, especially with how good their defense is um And you know, I mean we've seen what that offense can do like it hasn't it hasn't come You know, they haven't been as good as they were last year by any stretch, right? But you can kind of see it, right? And you know, it's not like Cleveland is is a great defense by any stretch But I think I think Baltimore is a really interesting curveball team for anyone facing them in the playoffs And they've just fully leaned into their identity of being a run-heavy team because in the past two games They'd scored 34 and I think it was 47 points on monday night and they've thrown the ball 34 total times Right between those two games combined. I guess trace McSorley had a couple too, but Lamar thrown the ball 34 total times and trace McSorley pass Attempts probably don't count as a full pass attempt either For sure. And but I think you could kind of see in that game, right? There was one play where Miles Garrett just completely whipped on an option read because I don't think he Ever thinks about that, right? Like he doesn't think you don't think about that for 31 teams in the league And if they're going to be able to get chunk plays on the ground I mean this kind of goes Against everything I've ever said about sure analytics and the passing game and stuff But but it's just kind of interesting to think about because in some sense they did that last year too Where they were just so efficient running the ball they threw when they needed to and they were efficient there as well And you saw the results Yeah, it's just I just think it's a really interesting team I think the preparation discussion is very interesting because you can kind of comp it back to the team that actually eliminated Baltimore last year with Tennessee because they're also a very unique team because you know, we're not used to tackling Lamar Jackson You're also not used to tackling like a rhinoceros in Derek Henry Like you can't prepare for that in any way So those unique teams those teams that have these unique skill sets That can be a leg up and the reason that we favor passing over rushing is because almost every single time Passing will be more efficient than rushing, right, you know for some teams like the Eagles is here That's not the case like they've been more efficient running than they have been passing So I think it's kind of like boiling it down to Specific situations with the with the Ravens. It's a different situation because they have such a dynamic athlete a quarterback That definitely changes things and like you said a unique situation That'll be tough to game plan for in the playoffs. So maybe they can play Spoiler in the role that they were defeated in last year So that'll be a fun team for sure and I saw some smart people on Raven's futures Before that it was actually before Lamar tested positive for covid So things obviously changed, but there's still 14 to 1 when the Super Bowl I probably wouldn't be willing to quite get there But like you're comparing them to Tampa Bay comparing them I honestly think that it's not outrageous to favor the Ravens over the Steelers if you're betting the Super Bowl Like I think that from an upside perspective. I feel like the Ravens upside might be better Uh, but it's it's an interesting market for sure and they're an interesting team Uh Again, like Pittsburgh really struggles at the one thing that you want to do is an NFL team, right? Right throw the football I mean, it's like a lot. They just don't throw it that well. What they throw it a lot They just don't throw it that effectively. They're just not particularly efficient this year for a number of reasons, right? And yeah, no, I would agree with that. They're an interesting team for sure So I'm looking forward to watching the Ravens when playoff time rolls around But uh, good week for Olivia moody make sure you follow her on twitter at live moods Check her out on the book hit app as well and she also did an episode of the fan dual hurry up this week as well So a lot of stuff from Olivia on the pipeline We're gonna get to week 15 here in just one second but first for all of you Colorado listeners out there Fan dual Bud Light and the Denver Broncos have partnered together to create the Bud Light pick and kick bonus With one goal in mind to give you more ways to win this NFL season The program is simple for every fuel goal and every extra point the Broncos kicker makes against the Buffalo Bills in December 19th Fans who placed a money-lined bet of at least 25 dollars in the game Will receive a three dollar bonus added to their fan dual sportsbook account if the Broncos kick three fuel goals and three extra points That's 18 dollars in bonus cash all right to you December 19th Is just a couple of days away. So crack open the bud light Download the fan dual sportsbook mobile app and place your bet today now It's good set for week number 15 Ed and I talking about this week's biggest games and letting you know where we see some value this week Covering the present All right, and before we dive into the biggest games across week 15 I did want to dab on the futures market with you because we talked to a lot of our guests about The nsc futures market and I want to get your perspective on this because you have the numbers to back it up You can check what they say about this and it's a really interesting market because there's no definitive favorite things did flip Towards green bay last week because I got that win whereas the saints lost to philadelphia green bay now plus 270 The saints are plus 280 a fan dual sportsbook the rams plus 450 Any interest for you in the top of the board or any longer team standing out to you as of right now? Yeah, so first I should mention like I don't actually have numbers on these probabilities like I don't take my My metrics and play out the season and give you a probability that some team is going to play So what I'm actually going to do here is kind of talk about Both what my numbers say but also like thinking about Which numbers could be off in some sense and I think the team that actually interests me the most is Tampa Bay Um, I think this team could actually have the most upside of any team in in the conference We know what the defense could do The offense hasn't been particularly good. Uh, they're 16th when I look at adjusted success rate But you know, when you look at tom brady, uh, he's been pretty good. He's got the fifth highest passer rating When uh by pff. So so they they think he's been pretty good Um, from what I've seen I think he's looked pretty good The long pass touchdown he had against minnesota was just about as perfect as anyone can throw a ball And you know, I mean they haven't really put it together on the offensive side of the ball And I feel like they've they've been kind of up and down but he went there because he has weapons like Oh, my kevin's and chris godwin Evans is great. It's haven't been great this year. I don't know if he's been banged up. Has he been banged up? Yeah, he's been banged up all year. Uh, he's healthy now though, which is good So They can't run the ball but but who cares right so when when you put when you think about that um Tampa bay doesn't necessarily look as good in the metric as I think they could We know what brady can do The the pff great suggests that he can continue to do it at that level And you just contrast that with like the los angeles rams who are actually, you know One of the best teams when you look at the metrics this year, but like what is the ceiling for jared golf, right? We're probably seeing it early. I mean we certainly saw it and what he did um against the against the bux defense, but Yeah, so that's the kind of thinking I I'm interested in Tampa Bay plus 600 there I just think they they probably have some offense that they they haven't shown So far the season that could really come out towards the playoffs. Does that mean that they're going to do it? No, no, they could continue to be this crazy up and down team that they've essentially been And losing their first playoff game as well, but there I think there is some potentially about I mean, they're six to one So like volatility is not a bad thing for you in that sense like if they fall flat, who cares, you know, it's six to one Um, I I think that like the packers are actually kind of interesting despite being plus 270 They should get that first round by Uh, based on their remaining schedule based on the fact that they have they had the tiebreaker over the saints too Because they won a head-to-head match, but I think they're a game up now And erin rogers is playing really good football. I think that's noteworthy I try to tinker around this is not I'm not going to like talk about these numbers a lot because I don't trust them fully yet But I've been tinker around with my own like personal power rankings based on Uh, some number fire metrics and right now they have green bay second behind kansas city That to me feels high but It's hard for me to like put a team above them new orleans I think that you can make that case for sure But green bay has a better path with with their leg up in the seating for the try to get that by now Although I would favor like if you gave me new orleans green bay on neutral site I might go new orleans there I kind of think that the the optimism in green bay is justified now We're not talking about green bay's game on the show today In the past you haven't been very high in green bay, but that was last year 2020 is different erin rogers is playing better now So what are your numbers saying about them with how they played so far this year? Well, I I think my view is that in terms of upside of the offense I think all three of those teams new orleans green bay and and tamper bay all have upside like it When those offenses are are at their best. I think We're going to put them in the same class, right? Yeah, we can't really put green bay's defense in the same class as the other two teams True So that that's where I would kind of block at that a little bit. Yes. They're they're in a good position um Yes, they do have probably the best cornerback in league and jerry alexander But you know, they look pretty average when when we're talking about past defense, uh this year They haven't uh, you know, they were even a little bit better last year. They don't really try very hard to defend the run Which which is not necessarily the worst strategy. It's it's uh something, but but they just don't have the defense I think that new orleans and uh tamper bay do Yeah, and I think that that uh is a good counterpoint like part of the flaw with like, all right, not a flaw It's an intentional flaw I downplay defensive metrics in these power rankings like they're obviously in there and past defense is the second Most heavily weighted thing within it But like it's so heavily weighted towards passing offense that should have downplay defense a little bit inherently So, um, we'll see but I think the packers at least very interesting The more interesting market to actually the superbowl market because right now the cheats are plus 195 so inherently if you're okay Not liking the chiefs. You can probably find value elsewhere. The problem is Can you actually do that? Can you actually be low on this cheese team? Are you just staying away from the superbowl market right now? Uh, or do you think the cheese have value? How are you in this one based on the current odds? Yeah, I mean, I think I think I'm staying away from this market I think without actually doing a more precise calculation Kansas City at plus 195 or whatever you said seems about right. Um, obviously, you know, they're the one offense that we could probably put ahead of New Orleans Green Bay and Tampa Bay at their best. Maybe the only one and Kansas City does have some issues on the defensive side of the ball, but um You know, there is some reason to think that their past defense is better this year Their coverage grades have been better with some of their secondary guys so You know, Kevin Cole told me this at the beginning of the year He thinks that they could actually be better be better because of slight improvements in their defense Again, they they don't really try hard to stop the run either, right? You know, the best player on the line. Chris Jones is is a defensive tackle That's like a pash rust beast and not particularly good at stopping the run so Yeah, it's the modern NFL, right and um Right. So like what happens when you know a team like the chiefs come up against the Ravens, right? Right and and they're and the Ravens probably if they don't have to aren't even going to pretend to throw the ball Right, which normally isn't a good idea, but in a special circumstance could be really interesting that was one of the Talking points last year for the afc title game when they faced the Titans because it was the same thing where like I don't know if they actively encourage you to run against them But they're pretty darn close because like I said, they just don't care like run the ball against us who cares and a lot of people use that as a justification to like the Titans in that game But for some reason they actually played pretty well defensively there So I'm wondering if it's not a philosophical thing more than a personnel thing Like can they stop the run when they want to? I don't know if they can because we've seen at times where they actually it is actually a problem That they can't stop the run So it may be more than a philosophical thing Green Bay is the same thing like Against San Francisco last year like they they should have been trying to stop the run and could not So yeah, you have to ask yourself. Is it philosophical or is it personnel with can the city last year? I think it was philosophical with Green Bay. It was pretty clearly personnel And that's a tough tough way. It's tough to decide which side things lie on The Green Bay also likes to flood the field with defensive backs too, right? So I don't I don't think it's all personnel there. I think it's a combination of both And I don't think we want to take too much away from the small sample size of one game You know, I think a lot of those things could could turn out differently But it's certainly something that you should be keeping an eye on when you're betting those big-time playoff games All right so we have our eyes on the bucks to win the nfc and staying away from the Super Bowl market because The chiefs are just too dang good. Let's talk about some fun games here for week 15 starting off in the nfc north Not the most appealing a game on paper because it's two six and seven teams But both these teams have at least a shot at the playoffs the vikings are three and a half point favorites against the bears total here is 47 and a half and Anecdotally, it feels like the vikings defense has gotten a lot better recently We know Dr. Eger was early on this boat to say hey, they're gonna suck to open the year and kudos to him for identifying that You could have gotten good betting value betting against the vikings early on as a result But it feels like they've been better recently add to your numbers back up that that feel with the vikings defense I mean not necessarily you look at how they've done in terms of passing success rate on defense and they've had You know better than nfl average is about 46 percent and they've had they've done better than that against Carolina Jacksonville in Chicago But think about those pass offenses, right? Is that really saying too much? So you get some kind of weakish offenses and maybe they look a little bit better I mean, I'm I'm certainly not buying that Minnesota's defense is that much better. Um, I'm gonna stay away from that take Are you interested in getting in on the bears here then because it's possible that We couldn't see a situation where the markets are buying into this vikings defense and could allow you to buy the bear It's the problem is We're getting a similar sentiment with the bear as often Suddenly people think that Mitchell turbisky has been revived When in actuality he had a half a garbage time against green bay and then his face houston in detroit since So it's kind of hard to like say okay I want to fade the vikings defense and bet chicago when betty chicago means betty mitch mitchel turbisky So how does that all mesh together for you and try to diagnose this game? Yeah, I mean my numbers have been on chicago for a couple weeks now We'll get to we'll see that that's the same case and I'll give you some numbers a little bit later Um for And part of the reason that it likes chicago is that it likes their defense You know in terms of success rate. They've they've been adjusted for who you play They've been really good when I looked at it like the metrics were Worse when you looked at yards per play in both passing and rushing So it's it's it's one of these situations where the defense is pretty good, but they're probably allowing more Big plays than than you you might expect. I don't know if there's a necessarily a reason for that But I think that's part of the the the numbers like chicago's defense by success rate and that that's kind of what's driving My numbers to see value in this team You talk about nick foals versus uh michel turbisky So the way I handle that is I as I look at what the markets think for the games in which they know Either foals or turbisky has started and So I use what I used to do is I used to if I wanted to value Evaluate turbisky I would just throw out the games with foals And then if I wanted to evaluate foals I would throw out the games with turbisky But I finally got smart and was like no, I just I'm just going to split them up into different teams, right? Oh, yeah So so when you do that then you can include all games and then you get a better look at all 32 teams You know split up amongst who who's playing the quarterback position The market thinks they're the same like within a half point So there there's no difference who's who's playing Um overall my number is like minnesota by about two and a half points. So definitely suggest a little bit value here as on chicago So it's a point of value Is that enough for you to actually bet chicago or do you think it's more just like hey If you have an inclination towards chicago, you have like the leeway to bet it or uh, how you feeling about that? I mean, I haven't bet this yet and I be honest I haven't really been betting on chicago much lately, but I'm pretty intrigued I haven't fully evaluated the injury list yet on this one, but yeah, I'm definitely intrigued by this because okay You know, minnesota is not great like that I'm pretty sure about that on either side of the ball. Yeah, so and while chicago isn't great um, I I think I It feels right in that sense With this game, I would not be shocked to see an over the totals already gone up a half or a point a half Actually was 46 now 47 and a half I think both these offenses are competent enough and like you alluded to the big plays like that's not predictive But it also is in part due to the style which they play. So I think and over here is in play Um, so if I had to pick a number in this game, I would lean over 47 and a half I want to stay away from the spread But I think the this game could be kind of fun at least from a total perspective Let's talk about another game that could be kind of fun for different reasons That's the patriots at the dolphins dolphins a one and a half point favorites here The total is 41 and a half and I want to talk to you about what you were talking about before You were talking about splitting up the teams and it being two separate teams for chicago with nick foals Amnitzel Serbisky Let's see the same year to a tongue of ilo and ryan Fitzpatrick How did the market's view? Dolphins with fits versus dolphins with twoa Yeah, I think this is where it's really powerful to kind of take the market perspective because I I Whenever the miami was playing they were talking about benching toa and one of the I think it was this week Yeah And and it's just like the bangles game. Well, I think this is the one where they were like, okay But I'm like guys this this this this is a first year starter, right? And he every first year starter is going to have his up and ups and downs So that's why I like to look at it in terms of what the markets think in these games and um, they think that uh to a Miami with twoa is two points better than miami with fits patrick. So I think that's that's very telling I think miami is a really interesting team. They're they're plus 10 in turnovers And that's driving one of the reasons that's driving their record right now I think they got the very worst games from the los angeles rams and the san francisco 49ers Um, neither of those teams played very well when they played miami this year um, so You know, I don't think they're as good as their eight and five records suggest. They are In this matchup against new england, uh, miami Certainly is a little bit better in terms of success rate when I look as a team both on offense and defense compared to new england So they definitely have that edge but you know, um Yeah, so so but new england's past defense has been getting better recently That's something that my numbers have been looking at. Uh, they actually like new england by half point So pretty much a coin flip in this game and suggest value on bill bell check Interesting. Okay. So I'm going to talk about this game from my cover in the future It might be on the other side of this one Uh, because uh, I would do want to talk about that patriot's defense. Like you said, they've been better Uh, they definitely have but I mentioned in the dolphin's offense here. So we'll talk about that Any cover in the future we're also not going to talk about the cheese insane scheme here in the game by game breakdown for week number 15 because I had that as my cover in the future for yesterday ed has it is as is covering for the future for today So no full breakdown of that here, but we'll give our full thoughts on that later on So let's finish up this section with the browns at the giants the browns for an at point favorites total is 44 and a half and I know the big story from monday was baltimore getting that win late and the betting angles around it But cleveland objectively played really well monday night But they lost but they've also phased a pretty soft schedule outside of baltimore the past month and a half or so So i want to check with you. How are your numbers feeling about the the browns broadly? Heading into this game. Yeah, I mean, they don't they don't particularly like the browns I'll tell you a little so Um at the beginning. Well, okay, so let's just get into it I mean my number is like cleveland by about 1.2 points in this game. So definitely suggesting value on cleveland So I talked about last week about how they were 6 and 0 in one score games And we expect some regression to the mean they're now 6 and 1 in one score games after after losing the baltimore last week And again, I mean the defense is just terrible They're they're last in the nfl when I look at adjusted success rate on offense. They're not particularly better. They're they're 19th But it's really bad on bad, right? I mean the new york giants are built in the wrong way They they are built to be good at running the ball and stopping the run and not good at throwing the ball and defending the pass So, uh, for example on offense, they're 27th when I look at adjusted success rate and passing and they are 15th, uh, when you look at running success rate So they're just built the entirely the wrong way. Um, but I I do see them actually potentially winning this game. Um So at the beginning of the year I have a texting thread with some of my buddies and I call it chicago like the worst three-in-one team Uh in the nfl or the history of the nfl and I think that turned out to be okay Pittsburgh being 11-0. I was a little bit more public about saying that they were the worst 11-0 team So and then more recently I've been calling Cleveland the worst nine in three team In the nfl or the history of the nfo or however you want to do it They've lost the baltimore and and why not let's let's have them lose it to the new york giants It's certainly not out of the question My numbers like Cleveland by a point a little bit more than a point, but I could I could certainly see Washington winning this game Sorry the giants, right? Oh, sorry. The giants. Yeah, I think that it's an interesting game because like I like baker. So I always try not to like bet browns games because I'm a I'm a fan I think that he's uh, he's he's really fun to watch when he's on he's like this electric guy but they are prone to Weird stuff. I don't know the way to quantify that But the browns are kind of a strange team where they can have some really funky games Like they had some games against the Bengals this year I mean granted when joe burrow was there but like that defense is bad And and we kind of saw that again on monday night with uh with the Steelers or the Ravens putting up big points against them So even colt mccoy if he wants to starting for dangle jones here Could be able to move the ball could be able to score some points and that's a concern with cleveland I think that I have faith in this browns offense though I think that that is that they are doing enough For me to feel good about them and now we just found out too that james bradbury is not going to play this game for the Giants that just happened, you know, not too long ago That could help them out as well I I always want to be low on teams that have lost star players No doubt beckham being out for the browns qualifies is that but sure it's tough with how good their offense has been Since odell got hurt even in that game against baltimore It's hard for me to like reconcile that my break because I want to you know be down on teams and lose star players They lost a star player But it seems like they're playing better and I I don't know if that's like due to Familiarity comfort with the with the new scheme of under kevin stafanski or what but like It's just weird the way things have worked with them And that's made them a team that's been really hard for me to truly like comprehend for most of this year Yeah, no, and I think kind of what I'm looking at agrees with that right the record is not consistent with with what the underlying metrics are saying and The giants aren't good But I thought daniel jones was good to play in this game Or is is it is it the idea that he might get benched? So he has an ankle injury now too He originally had just a he had um The original injury that was his hamstring then he heard his ankle in addition to that on Or whatever the game on sundae, so he now has multiple injuries. He was limited in practice on both Or on both wednesday and thursday So there's still a chance that he plays But it kind of now seems like he's not and I think that to me if i'm trying to You know make assumptions around this game I'm probably operating under the assumption that he is not able to go just because It seems as if that's the way things are trending as of right now, but you know, I think that it's uh It's it's a tough situation to read and it kind of seems like the market doesn't care I know that daniel jones didn't play well On sundae, but they've had this number posted the entire week. There's been no moving it based on daniel jones versus colt mccoy I don't know if you look that bad like he didn't look good in the game against arizona He looked kind of like daniel jones taking sacks, you know, uh making weird plays and stuff like that like 2019 josh allen but It's it's interesting for sure, but I think the browns are at least interesting here But we'll see how they play all right We're gonna circle back to that cheese titans or that cheese sands game in just one second here with cover in the future Because that's a fun game to break down. So let's do that for a close-up shop for this week Covering the future So if you missed our college football edition of covering the spread for this week My cover in the future, of course, not college football was nfl talking about this chief sands game That's a really interesting game because you know, we didn't we're probably not getting drew breeze back But now there is some word potentially a play. I don't think he'll play I'm still guessing that he will not But this this cheese line is minus three I said yesterday I wanted cheese minus three because My thought process was I was guessing tason hill would play if that were confirmed I would expect that line to move towards canza city and I wanted to get ahead of that movement And you are also in canza city minus three. What is your rationale that got you to that number? Yeah, absolutely. I mean again, it's one of these situations where I'm looking at new Orleans with tason hill a quarterback It's a little bit more difficult there because you have to throw out that weird denver game In which new Orleans became a 17 point favorite because denver was playing a practice team wide receiver at the quarterback position So anyways, I throw that game out and and when you when you do that and you look at what the market My market model says about this game. It says canza city by 4.3 points So it certainly suggests value here and I think everything else really agrees with that Kansas city has the best offense best quarterback in the nfl Probably the best offensive mighty coach in andy reed the number certainly suggests what they're doing this year first my adjusted passing success rate you know and The saints defense has been great. They're fourth when I look at adjusted success rate, but I just think this Kansas city is a better unit when when their offense is going to be Out on the field and I don't think anyone's going to necessarily disagree with that When you look on the defensive side of the ball again, like as we talked about earlier like they don't really try to defend the run their average When we talk about defending the pass their 15th in my adjusted success rate on passing plays I did mention that some of their defenders Have looked pretty good this year when you look at the pff grades The primary example is brashad felton one of the cornerbacks He was kind of had a part-time role last year But he's a full-time player this year with a 73 coverage grade brashad brielyn has also Gone from a grade of 51 last season to to 68 this year. So if you believe in those grades I certainly do I do a lot of when I'm when I'm looking at these games I look a lot at coverage grades because that's the one thing that's really hard to get from numbers so So they are potentially better than than last year. So That defense against the tason hill offense, I I think Kansas should be should be more than three-point favorite I'm I think this will get to three and a half by the time we kick off and uh, I'm happy to grab it now at three What is your read on tason hill versus drew breeze? Because we talked about this is with it's patrick and toa. We talked about it Before with mitra turbisky and nick foals What did the market say is the gap between those two guys? Yeah, I mean it's it's a lot. Let's see So New Orleans with drew breeze is six point six better Points better than nfl average Okay, and uh, New Orleans now is four points So it's two point six points. Yeah, okay. So that's that's a lot I think that this number at least to me like I don't know like if I'm just overly confident in the cheese but like to me this number says there is a Let's say 20 chance that drew breeze plays That's kind of the way it feels Because like if drew breeze plays this what's this number probably like One or so somewhere in there. So, uh, maybe two but still I think that we're getting some drew breeze in this number And I still don't think he'll play despite the report on thursday that there is a possibility. He will I don't think he will personally. That's why i'm comfortable taking the cheese minus three. So Betting on patrick mahomes is always a good feeling. I was on the other side of that last week And it was very scary. I did I I covered I should not have like I don't I didn't deserve to win that bet But given the way my other stuff went last week. I'm not going to complain So I will feel good about betting on patrick mahomes this week as opposed to betting against now the reason I bet Against the cheese last week is because I wanted to ride the dolphins Well, so let's run it back one more time and bet on miami here with my cover in the future And i'm a bit worried about them for a couple of reasons. The first one is they're banged up. That's a risk The second is that there is this narrative. There's that word a brown bill bellichick against rookie quarterbacks This is his first time facing to a tongue of aloha the thurs the patrons are on extra rest They played last thursday the dolphins had the cheese on sunday. So there are a couple of factors here That do point us towards the patreons But I think they're dragging it down enough where the dolphins are actually a value here So I want the dolphins minus one and a half and a big part of that is I don't think kua has been as bad as the perception has been He's averaging point one five passing net expected points per drop back based on number fires metrics Ryan Fitzpatrick was at point one eighth So it hasn't a downgrade so the markets, you know make sense like he has been a downgrade The garage point one four, but that's not a huge gap. They were both close to league average They were close to each other But the sentiment seems to lean heavily toward to a struggling You look at the first half of that bankals game you talked about, you know, where people are saying you might get benched That was pretty justified. He played bad there in the second half, though He played a lot better. We saw him Play pretty well in the second half against the cheese, too He was at point one eight passing net expected points per drop back in the second half of that game And that was without all of his pass catch. We saw Mike Gasicki lead Devontae Parker left Jacqui Grant left that game They might not play but without them two have played pretty well in the second half against the cheese But there's also a chance those guys play because surprise surprise surprise Mike Gasicki was actually limited in practice on thursday Devontae Parker and Jacqui Grant were both limited on wednesday They might actually be able to play and I think a part of this number Is pessimism around this dolphin's offense with all the injuries that they've got But I think that we're going to get at least one of parker Grant or Gasicki and if we get that that definitely helps and there's a possibility as remote as it may be That we get all three with the dolphins pushing for a playoff spot here. That was That performance by two in the second half last week was against a pass defense that despite the patriot's gains Is still better than the patriot's the patriot's pass defense. So I think Tula should be fine here I also just Don't know how the patriots will move the football they rank 24th and schedule adjusted offense The dolphins are seventh defensively. So I think this is just one that should favor the dolphins and yes, there are factors that that do Point us towards the patriots, but even after considering those I think minus one and a half is forgiving enough to ride with miami here Not you and I haven't really gone head to head too often this year So it makes me a little nervous to say the least but I understand your rationale behind it So like I can respect it But I think that to me I just have a little bit of faith in Tua That I want to ride that and bet the dolphins minus one and a half year But again, I understand where you're coming from too Well, I wanted to ask you don't we throw out all the bill bellichick narratives after this season? I mean probably it was probably Although that that, you know, I I don't like this narrative. I think it's very stupid But like the the bill bellichick against rookie quarterbacks narrative regained life when Justin Herbert struggled But that's also the Chargers Yeah, what like what's the coaching discrepancy between brian flores and anthony linn like it's enough I think brian flores is smart enough. I trust brian flores Yeah, chan gaily's a seasoned veteran. He knows what he's doing too I trust them more than I trust the chargers coaching staff Sure and and brian flores is going to know more about bellichick and what he wants to do as well being under his staff before Um, yeah, I don't know. I mean bellichick is a big mystery to me this year, right? I mean he brought most of that secondary back at least all his coverage corners uh, stefan gilmore hasn't been as good this year, but For them to drop to you know from top two, uh in terms of past events last year to You know below nfl average that It's almost something I didn't think was possible Yeah, like we talked about regression, but regression does not mean you're gonna bounce to like Right, you know 18th. It's like, okay, you're not gonna be historically great. You might wind up being seventh or something like that and the patriots have They've regressed and then so effectively yeah Yeah, exactly and I just find that strange and you know on the other side of the ball You have cam newton who's gotten to a Super Bowl before I mean, maybe maybe that was a little bit of uh Of a miracle season and I think it was for cam Um, but you know, it's not like he's starting a rookie at the at the quarterback position either, right? So I guess I would just expect more on new england. Maybe they will uh Going down the stretch here, but I mean they didn't look that good against the Rams last last week either Right, but then the Rams are a pretty good football team. So Yeah, I mean it's interesting to re-examine these narratives and I kind of wonder what what people are thinking thinking about that I think it's fun because you think back to when tom brady signed the box You could bet the box out. I think it was like plus 136 was the number we discussed in the show to have a better record than the patriots Yeah, it was plus money and it was juiced up quite a bit I remember that well and I think it moved very quickly towards tampa bay Uh, but I think they can clinch it this week if they haven't already. So, um, that was a fun one It's been it's been a weird year for sure, but I think that one at least was beneficial So we'll see if they can do to clinch the deal here on sunday That is all that we have for this week here on covering the spread add What is going on for you over at the power rank this week? Yeah, please check out the power rank youtube channel drew martin has been doing college football videos over there He talked about clemson Notre Dame he talked about alabama florida talked about louisiana coast of carolina. So a really good video He's his record With his handicapping and using my numbers has been pretty good this season So the power rank youtube channel you can check that out at the power rank dot us And uh, oh, yeah, i have richard johnson on football handle it a show sweet great conversation We got into also all the championship games and his takes on those But i also got to ask him about uh, if he were All powerful what he would do to fix the situation with black The lack of black head coaches and college football. So that was a really interesting conversation I asked him to to start rattling off some Below coordinator people that he thought would be great coaches and he just i mean it was it was very rapid fire It was a cool moment Where he's just like, yeah, there's a lot of guys out there just be creative interview these guys So richard johnson, we've had him on this podcast. He was terrific talking about college football earlier this year and He's also doing some things for 538. I haven't had a chance to check it out yet But he wrote an article about college football betting that came out within the last couple days Certainly something that I think this audience would be very interested in. Yes So yeah, he tweeted it out and I saw it and I was like, oh, he's just tweeting out this article Then I clicked on it because it was an interesting topic and I saw oh He wrote this and it like caught me by surprise. So richard is on the scc network He's on 538 dudes blowing up. So i'm happy for him. He does great work. So the watch check it out What's that? He's that he writes for the washington post too Yeah, so uh, check out the football and analytics show to to get that interview with richard I'll be certain to check that out myself and also check out the power rank dot us to get the youtube link for that I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s. We recorded our daily fantasy podcast earlier this morning myself brandy kadula breaking down the week 15 main slate you can find that by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast V do you never forget to follow us the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast as well big Thank you to calvin thea bald our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you both with your college football championship game Betts and also the nfl will talk to you once again on tuesday next week to get you set for nfl week 16 This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network