 Violence in the North Caucasus, a report by the Human Rights and Security Initiative at CSIS. Since January 2004, CSIS staff have been compiling, almost daily, a database that tracks incidents of violence occurring in the North Caucasus. This report highlights data for the period of January 5, 2009 through May 3, 2009. For previous reports that cover earlier periods of time, including the entire year of 2008, please see the link at the end of this presentation. For tracking purposes, the term violent incidents includes abductions, bombings, including attempted bombings, rebel attacks, police and military operations against suspected militants, assassinations of key civilian and military leaders, including failed attempts, the destruction of property by militants, and the discovery of weapons. Regionally, our tracking includes incidents occurring in Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabudino-Balkaria, North Asetia and Dagestan. This graph illustrates the number of incidents of violence in the Republics of the North Caucasus from January 2008 through April 2009. If we ignore the significant drop in the number of incidents that occurred in August 2008 due to the war between Russia and Georgia, the overall trend in the level of violence in the North Caucasus appears to be increasing. As this graph demonstrates, however, the North Caucasus is an extremely varied region in terms of violence. While North Asetia and Kabudino-Balkaria remain relatively calm, Ingushetia has experienced a severe spike in violence following the mid-August War. Although there was a decline towards the end of 2008, which coincided with a Kremlin-backed change of administration, the level of violence in Ingushetia began to rise again at the end of the year. This graph depicts the levels of violence in the Republics of the North Caucasus over the last four months, from January 2009 through April 2009. In this four-month period, Ingushetia remains the most violent Republic, which is consistent with the previous 12 months. Dagestan, however, is now the second most violent Republic surpassing Chechnya. We will now note some major events that have taken place during this four-month period. To clarify, we include these events for context purposes only, and we do not intend to suggest a causal relationship. On January 13th, Umar Zorailov, a Chechen political refugee, was shot and killed in Vienna. On January 19th, human rights lawyer Stanislav Markelov, an investigative journalist Anastasia Baburova, were murdered in central Moscow following a press conference held to draw attention to the early release of an army colonel convicted of the murder of a young Chechen woman during the war in Chechnya. On January 20th, in response to an escalation in attacks, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev pays an unannounced visit to Ingushetia, where he met with the Republics president, Unusbek Yevkorov. Between March 19th and March 21st, counter-terrorist operations in Kakashura leave 29 dead. On March 30th, Solim Yamadaev, an opponent of Chechnya's Moscow-backed president Ramzan Kadyrov, was shot and killed in Dubai. On April 16th, President Medvedev signed a decree officially ending the 10-year counter-terrorist operations in Chechnya. The next day, Chechen authorities reinstate special counter-terrorist operations in Chechnya's more turbulent districts. This graph illustrates the trends in the number of deaths resulting from incidents of violence in the North Caucasus from January 2008 through April 2009. Although there was a decline in the number of deaths over the New Year period, in the months following the turn of the year there has been a significant rise in the number of incident-related fatalities. Of all the republics in the North Caucasus, the deadliest two have been Ingushetia and Dagestan, with the number of fatalities in Chechnya decreasing significantly towards the end of 2008. March was a particularly bloody month in Dagestan, with 35 people killed in one week, of which 29 of these deaths occurred during what appear to have been two government-instigated special operations in Kakashura over a three-day period. This graph shows the relationship between incidents of violence and related deaths in the North Caucasus in the first four months of 2009. It clearly depicts how Ingushetia is by far the most violent republic, but in terms of fatalities due to incidents of violence, Dagestan is on a par with Ingushetia. Although, again, it should be noted that a large number of these fatalities suffered in Dagestan in spring 2009 were due to the two counter-terrorist operations in Kakashura. This graph illustrates trends over the past eight years in the number of Russian citizens applying for asylum in industrialised countries. For comparison, we also provide asylum-seeker rates from Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan and China. As is evident, the number of Russian asylum seekers has remained comparable or even greater than those from failed states and states notorious for their poor human rights records. As this graph shows, in 2008, only citizens of Somalia and Iraq sought political asylum in industrialised countries more frequently than those from the Russian Federation. Moscow officials say that most of the Russian citizens that applied for asylum are from the North Caucasus and suggest that the driving motivation behind these high numbers is a fear of internal blood feuds. Rights activists, however, argue that it is not a fear of internal blood feuds but rather wider systemic problems in the region that are driving up the numbers. CSIS is tracking the level of violence in the North Caucasus and the price of crude oil. Here we offer a comparison of incidents of violence and the price of crude. Although it is too soon to offer any conclusions, we will continue to track the data and present our findings in future reports. This report has been made possible by a grant from the Open Society Institute. For recommendations on ways in which the international community can address issues facing the North Caucasus, see 49 Steps to Improve Human Rights and Security in the North Caucasus, a report by the CSIS Human Rights and Security Initiative and the Robert Bosch Foundation.