 I got lots of quotes and I won't bore you with them all, but there's one from Martin Wolf, who's the chief economics editor of The Financial Times, who in early 2009 said, Ddiw yw'r dweud yng Nghymru ar gyfer y gallu gwahoddiadau cyrraedd yn y 1930. Eich cyfnodol yma ar gyfer ei gwybodol a'r ddweud ychafol. Rym ni'n gweithio'r cydwysol? Rydyn nhw'n gweithio. Rydyn nhw'n ddweud yr hyn yn ymwyng yn ychydig yn gorffod gyda'r hwylig. Now we know it was a mirage. These just kind of quote sums up the illusions that the bourgeois economists had prior to 2008. Although there had been a series of economic booms and slumps in capitalism, they thought it was something they could handle. ac mae'n rhaid i'w ddysgu y gallwch ymgyrchol yma ar y 2008. Felly, mae'n ddweud y dyfodol yn ymgyrchol ymgyrchol, ar y 1930-rhyw, mae'n ddod i'r ddweud yn ymgyrchol ac mae'r ddweud yn gweithio'r cyfrifol ac mae'n ddweud ymgyrchol ymgyrchol ymgyrchol yn yr hystio'r cyfodol. Felly, mae'n ddweud yn ymgyrchol. Fy hwnnw, Bougoir economic thought has become a system whereby it's a justification for capitalism. It's not a real scientific analysis of the system. They take bits and pieces, they look at the superficial surface of events in reality, the market mechanisms and don't penetrate below to look at the fundamental contradictions of capitalism which obviously they do not wish to explore without to bring them too close to the theories of Marx in particular and even the classical bourgeois economists of the early 19th century. I think probably for the overwhelming period itself the dominant bourgeois idea about capitalism is that it was a self-correcting mechanism that market itself would always bring about an equilibrium in capitalism and although there could be partial overproduction in this or that industry general overproduction was ruled out and this goes back even to the early classical economists of Jean-Baptiste in particular we came up with the idea of Sey's Law that for every purchase there is a sale this is an automatic thing that the market itself has a certain rhythm to it an equilibrium to it and therefore this would therefore there could not be any generalized crisis of capitalism they could be this or that but not a generalized crisis and that dominated bourgeois thought right up to the present time in fact prior to 2007 2008 you had the efficient market hypothesis which is the same fancy word for Sey's Law that the market would balance things out leave it to the market because that would be the essence of the stability of capitalism itself it's the interference they said by governments in particular and the distortions of the market which result in the problems of capitalism itself and in other words these are these are illusions they go back a long long way and become a justification for capitalism and also the fact that they this idea gripped the minds not only of the bourgeois economists but the politicians that particularly in the in the 2000s and the 1990s they did away with as much regulation of capitalism as was possible is the epoch of deregulation of the banking system the financial markets the independence of the banks all these things were brought in to free up capitalism to unleash capitalism if you like so that it would work properly the only things that these regulations and these restrictions were brought in in a previous period particularly since the 1930s as an attempt to try and reining the difficulties of capitalism to try and in some way bring some some control over the unfettered nature of capitalism which they believed that first of all created the great crisis of 1929 1931 which as you know was preceded with a big boom in America of the roaring 20s as it was called an enormous speculation not only on land speculation but also on shares shares became the real product of speculation in those years and they were bought on credit you didn't have to pay for a share you put 10% down and you get your shares as share prices are growing up it didn't matter because you could always pay back the loans because the shares would would cover those loans in the past of course when the share prices collapsed the whole thing just disintegrated and they were terrified and Roosevelt in particular came in with a number of regulatory controls over the excesses and yet in the 1990s and the 2000s all these were just bonfired and in order to restore the real dynamics of capitalism as they as they saw it but this helped as well to create this enormous boom there was a boom a speculative boom prior to 2008 and we saw that in the subprime market in in America in particular but everywhere speculation on property became the big big thing in Britain in Spain America they really took off and of course this in all booms there's illusions of capitalism and how they can always go up and up and up there's no no stopping them now they've they've suddenly reached this conclusion that if they do things in a certain way then there's no end to it and speculation takes as a life of its own and they had these financial instruments as they were called the derivatives from which debts were carved up bad debts good debts anything you like carved up parcel it up have the the royal ascent of a of a credit agency and they sold and the riskier they were the higher the yield so people so you had these this was and this poisoned the rule of the system it was very toxic but the banks relied on it the institutions relied on it and people made millions and billions out of it as far as they concerned that was the that's what capitalism was all about the driving force of capitalism is the production of profit it's the production of surplus value but traditionally capitalism made profit out of production out of manufacturing of production producing things selling them out of the labour of the working class but now they wanted to take the easy route why bother with production just use a financial jiggery pokery basically in order to produce the these speculative amounts of massive amounts of money and the belief in this idea that this was going to go on and on and on forever of course it's every upswing leads to an eventual crash and these illusions tend to disappear for a short period of time although i could show that they haven't disappeared altogether they're back in fashion once again people never learn as it was as i think hegel said you know the only thing people you know anything you learn from history people don't learn from history which is probably quite correct i mean if you look at 2008 it's worth us understanding from a marx's point of view how we look at it from from the from the view historical materialism that we understand that societies that social economic systems arise in society they develop and they develop their productive forces but they also end the period of decline this has been the case in various social systems of slavery of feudalism of course now we're in the in the epoch of capitalism and of course the capitalist do not believe there's going to be a decline this is the best system since ever and will always be the case but we understand that and marx explained first of all you read the communist manifesto that capitalism is far more dynamic than feudalism in fact it's a revolutionary system that can only operate on the basis of a revolutionary development of the productive forces the revolutionary development of the of the economy itself and that's why it began in a parochial way destroyed feudalism and eventually emerged on a world scale such was the dynamic of capitalism which marx credits the system with it produces this tremendous development of the productive forces on a world scale and as marx explained this is precisely the material basis on which a new classless society can be formed and that that was that was a prerequisite for the emancipation and liberation of society but capitalism has its has a life of its own and it has a life yes boom and slump has always been with capitalism there's always been booms and slumps and they cannot be eliminated and they will exist until capitalism is eliminated it's a bit like the human body i suppose of breathing when you breathe in and out the boom and the slump the breathe we will breathe when we were born we breathe when we live and we will cease to breathe when we die same with capitalism it will cease to have a boom and slump cycle when it's eliminated or up until that time it will always be with us but there's more to a system than just a boom and slump cycle there's a a kind of um i work out could you put it there's a phases in the development of capitalism you know that you have the phase of the the emergence and development of capitalism in its heyday which you could see has emerged um as a world system until it had the the the crisis of 1914 of the world war that was a kind of turning point in the development of capitalism and you could see that it had it had gone through a big development but the world war the first world war was an abrupt stop and in the 1920s and 30s you have a different rhythm of capitalist development although there are still booms and slumps the booms seemed to be very shallow and the slumps far more deeper that's the general characteristic you know you can only talk about generalities but that's the general feature of this period the period of the first world war until the second world war the interwar period was a period of of an economic downturn for world capitalism uh if you like it's the capitalist curve of development has now gone on it was a downward trajectory and the only way that capitalism could survive because in reality it should have been overthrown capitalism had provided the the crisis for the working class to move into opposition and revolution from 1917 onwards and if there'd been a leadership we know whether we talked about economics here but in effect it's a political economy that the the capitalist system doesn't die of its own volition there's no end you know final crisis of capitalism it doesn't exist capitalism will always find a way out unless it's overthrown and the whole basis was that the objective conditions to overthrow capitalism existed from 1917 onwards and it should have been overthrown but because it wasn't it was able to find a way out and at devastating cost that's the whole point now is the only way that they could resolve this crisis of massive overproduction from 1929 30 and the depression was a world war there's no other way of solving it and the war world war had the same effect as a slump in so far as it destroys physically the means of production destroys the destroys workers destroys factories destroys everything in its wake and provides the basis for a material basis for a new recovery if you want to put it that way and as as you're well aware they know the capitalists like to have nice little phrases they call themselves the system like based on creative destruction a very dialectical they create things at the same time they destroy them in fact they have to destroy in order to create that's the the essence of of capitalism um and the and the impasse of capitalism in that sense the contradictions of capitalism because that's the whole basis that it's not a system that is um uh how can I put it it's in constant equilibrium with itself it's a system which is in constant disequilibrium it's a system which is in in in effect in uh semi-crisis can only get out of this by uh or get out of a crisis by creating new factors for a greater crisis later on it's a very contradictory system of society basically because you've got social production and individual appropriation you know the mass of the work is produced to wealth yet the tiny capitalist uh handle capitalist expropriate the wealth and this is a fundamental contradiction based on the profit motive um so we have booms and slumps which are part and parcel of the equation they will they will take place I mean the first simultaneous crisis in the post-war period that happened of all countries simultaneously was in 1974-75 that was called the famous uh oil crisis because of the war in the middle east oil prices quadrupled and you had this slump so the bourgeois economist said well it was an oil crisis it wasn't a crisis of capitalism uh whereas we understood that the it was it was a crisis of capitalism there was a crisis of overproduction at that point uh but a trigger occurred in other words what triggered the crisis uh and that was the increase in oil but it totally was a trigger though everything else had to be there before that trigger would work and the crisis would have come in another form if it hadn't been for the oil crisis it would have been something else um and then uh you had a recovery in fact in the united states I remember the economy increased by seven percent in a year that was quite a big leap forward showed it dynamically came back in a in a big way but then there was a further economic crisis in 1981 uh again quite a deep crisis mass unemployment began to appear before 1974 there wasn't any mass unemployment there was very little employment unemployment and yet that then you were talking a million then two in britain a million and then later three million unemployed uh what the figure is today I'm not sure because they cover they cover it so much up uh that you don't like actually know what is employment and what is unemployment these these days but clearly there's a lot of people who would well work in part time we would love to work full time there's disguised unemployment people have dropped off the unemployment register for very been thrown off basically there's still millions of unemployed at the present time in fact and so you see estimated there were four and a half million given these other factors so it's a system it cannot use although they brag in britain that look we've got um full employment here or we at least we've got more working now than ever before they work like bloody slaves but nevertheless we've got more people who work than ever before and um they see this as a as a as the dynamics of capitalism itself we look at that now in a minute but after 81 you had another in 1990 1991 and then you had one in 2000 2000 2001 and then 2008 which we're talking about today and that was one hell of a crisis and the reason why it was a very deep crisis of capitalism and and it began as a financial crisis in fact you hear all the time and you're about this crisis oh it's a financial crisis it's a financial crisis as if that was the only thing on the contrary it's wasn't simply a financial crisis it started as a financial crisis but just like the oil crisis in 74 tipped through the the world economic system into a an economic crisis of over production saw this financial crisis simply triggered the deep economic crisis of overproduction that was manifesting itself in the previous period so but they they wrap it on about financial crisis as if that is it in other words let's let's let's separate out the real economy very healthy as they would put it from the financial economy which is a bit gone wrong a bit and therefore that's where the problem is that's the fact hello as long as we deal with this little financial problem here the rest will be fine that's the implication that capitalism is healthy and so on and so forth clearly it nevertheless shook the nerves this crisis shattered they would say the nerves of the capitalist class shattered them everywhere because they were terrified that this crisis would manifest manifest itself in another depression a world depression like in the 1930s and that would have been an absolute catastrophe as far as they were concerned and they were even so worried you know the church of england as you see here they they put on its website a new prayer Lord God we live in disturbing days across the world prices rise debts increase banks collapse jobs are taken away and fragile security is under threat loving God meet us in our fear and hear our prayer amen well that didn't nobody nobody good did it actually much but it showed out how they're kind of desperately looking for anything to try and the pacify this the the specter of of economic crisis the devilry of economic crisis on a world scale in fact the archbishop will count the meeting the other week talking about the crisis of capitalism and the only way that we're going to avoid this crisis is a moral dimension in other words the capitalist could be a bit more moral about it than they make in their profits and look at this look at this this this gulf between rich and poor this is very bad and so on i mean this is all the symptoms of capitalism it's a natural outcome of the capitalist mode of production and profit making you know they try to scrape away the the things they don't like to admit to to reveal something they think that that can work but they both connected in separate connected as marx explained you know 150 years more ago that out of free competition will come monopoly that the inevitable tendencies of capitalism is a greater concentration and centralisation of capital that through competition they were the object of competition to defeat your opponents to swallow them up and create bigger and bigger and bigger banks bigger and bigger factories bigger and bigger corporations and that's what they were writing about marx was writing about in in in 1848 when they weren't any of these things around showed the brilliance of his analysis and understanding of how we have monopoly capitalism at the present time and imperialism as well on the basis the world being carved up by the giant corporations and countries in their own particular interest but capitalism yes it develops it is born it develops it matures but also enters into a decline it reaches old age it becomes senile and exhausted and this is what we have to understand this is the background nature if you like of this crisis the reason why it's so deep the reason why it's so severe is but despite the previous 50 years since the war and after the war they had a big economic upswing it lasted 25 years this wasn't a little boom it was a massive economic upswing of the productive forces internationally and allowed reformism obviously to provide reforms the national health service free for education uh no unemployment all these things were due to the economic upswing of capitalism and the pressure of the working class demanding those reforms but they could afford them under those circumstances now it's a different capital efficiency so far as that economic period of upswing lasted 25 years came to an end in 1974 it is true but but they were able to try they were putting off it's like something else you can put off a crisis but the more you put it off the longer you put it off the worse it becomes the contradictions emerge far greater than before and the big kind of element in the equation prior to 2008 was credit credit was freely available why because they had plenty of money to loan out because they weren't investing it into productive industry what is the essential justification of capitalism the historical justification of capitalism is that it it exploits the working class that's quite correct it it extracts surplus value from the working class through unpaid labour but it invests that unpaid labour in the development of the productive forces they have to compete with their competitors the only way they can compete with their competitors is introduce new techniques new machinery to increase the productivity of labour and that can only be done with investment into new machines new industries new factories etc etc and therefore they can they can produce far more cheaply far more effectively and can undercut their their future competitors but they're all doing it that's the whole problem with it and therefore if they all have the all of the they all have machinery someone gets a head start but the other person gets they gets there as well so they cancel it all out but they at the same time they've increased the productivity of labour they've increased the potential or the capacity to produce goods which pour onto the market a market which they cannot determine they do not know what the market will hold and each individual capitalist is there to take a slice a bigger slice of the market therefore they produce to the maximum that the market that they believe can bear but they all do it and that's the if you like the the the boom if you like your capitalism where they are all searching desperately to increase their share of the market itself by increasing the productivity of labour but that is that that drives society forward that that allows us to to to to provide the material basis for a new society this enormous development of the productive forces under capitalism of course it it's not a system which works in a balanced way it's a system that that works in a contradictory fashion you know it kind of it's a huge contradiction of where we able to you you you you plan production in a factory it's well planned in a factory but as soon as the production leaves a factory then it enters a no man's land if you like of the market which Adam Smith talked about the invisible hand of the market this in other words they do not know it's something that's blind to them and that but there is some kind of logic behind it there is a kind of where there's in this madness there's a logic there's a pattern to it a contradictions if you like which which build up and allow society not not just to to stand still but to progress to go forward but it goes forward on the basis of boom and slump and the slump itself leads to the the destructions of values a destruction of physical commodities and so on and so because they've overproduced uh they produce a glut I know I can why not bring a few uh let's bring marks into this he's always very good for a quote um let me think let's let's let's look at a good one here yes um he Ricardo he's attacking David Ricardo cannot admit that bourgeois mode mode of production contains within itself a barrier to the free development of the productive forces a barrier which comes to the surface in crises and in particular in over production the basic phenomena of crisis and overproduction is a very important aspect it never existed before under production existed before but not over production over production is uh is manifest only under capitalist society and it's because of the blind forces of the market that the the the impulse of capitalism is to produce to the maximum the problem is that the market which is made up of consumers on the one hand and of capitalists who want to buy extra industry these are the consumers of society have a limited amount of purchasing power and the reason for that is marks explained is that the working class gets in wages uh insufficient to buy back the full value that it produces um and obviously uh what the the work that is sold is not labor what the work that is sold is the ability to work labor power and this labor power is unlike any other commodity which has been sold as it produces greater values than its own value so although the wages cover the the uh the value of of uh of the work is ability to work this ability when it's in the hands of a capitalist uh puts it together with raw materials and machines and they produced commodities which is uh in which this surplus uh um value is contained and the way it is uh uh realized is that the commodities are sold the capitalist can produce as many commodities that they like they kind of sell them otherwise it's no good you know but if they sell their commodities they unlock the surplus value contained in the commodities produced by the working class and that's where profit comes from the unpaid labor of the working class but the reason why capitalism doesn't enter a crisis from the word go day one hang on a minute you know i'm only going to pay the workers a wage that's not sufficient to buy back all of the goods they create why isn't capitalism going into crisis on the work on day one should do and the reason why it doesn't is the little secret there that the capitalist take the surplus extracted from the labor of the working class and invest it the capitalism creates its own market in that sense and it's the what Marx is playing the division between two big sectors of the economy that is department one he calls it and department two uh a production of the means of consumption and production of the means of production that there is consumer goods and capital goods the two big sectors the economy and they intellect those workers in the working for the consumer industries buy consumer goods those workers involved in the capital industries have also to buy consumer goods those capitalists in the consumer industry have to buy capital goods and sort of the capitalist in the capital so it's a kind of interconnection of both sectors that this economy which allows them to create this market and sustain capitalism so there's no crisis on day one they put it off it's a stage it's growing there's a boom it's a development but there comes a stage there comes a point when a crisis occurs because the uh this capacity to create which is building up all the time because you're in competition with other capitalists you're introducing new technology you're squeezing the workers ever more to produce more goods eventually um the the market collides with the production itself and you have a a crisis of over production which is periodic it's the boom and slump what we have now though is not simply a boom and a slump we have what we call an organic crisis of capitalism which is fundamentally different if it was just a boom and slump well i'll be it then boom and slump it'll go on forever this is not going to go on forever in that sense because it's reached a a crisis inherent within the system of society that capitalism has become a barrier to itself in that regard and that's illustrated by what happened prior to 2007 they call it financialization i think they call it there's a it's got a buzzword where finances money making speculation derivatives all these this financial kind of uh even they didn't know what the hell was going on uh they you know they they made these uh uh uh whether debt obligations and all sorts of weird and wonderful names they give it uh which are financials instruments that they sold on and we're making lots of money because the risks involved of debt i mean who the hell would buy debt it's obviously they and to make money out of debt and risky debt i mean the whole thing becomes bizarre the reason why is that they're looking for avenues of profit making which are greater profitability there than in simply building a factory laying down his foundations building getting machines in and employing workers to produce commodities and then go to a market and sell you commodities and that might take out that's the traditional way if you like that capitalism has developed the economy that's manufacturing industrial production whereas finance has always been an auxiliary to that in the past banking and so on is it plays a very important role to oil oiling the the wheels of capitalism but now it's a lot longer oiling the wheels of capitalism it's become a bloody big wheel itself and it's an agent to the the system itself like it's like in effect it cancels growth on capitalism it's um it doesn't produce new value it sucks the value from the rest of the economy this financialization and uh because you know we know profit well it's not just profit it's like the three the trinity isn't it no uh rent interest and profit surplus value is not simply industrial profit surplus value of the of the working class is divided between other sections of the capitalist who are not directly involved in production the landlords rent this will be paid to the landlords secondly uh money has to be borrowed as well in order to facilitate production and so on that's the that's the bankers they get interest uh from the capitalist the capitalist make the profit but they have to share the profit with the other elements of the capitalist class the elements of the ruling class so you got this rent interest and profit but it's the the industrial profit which really is where the the surplus value is created in production that's the whole point uh but they have to share this in the other sectors of the economy but these other sectors because of the the uh senile decay of capitalism that's the point about it you have no really monopolies but banks and finances have grown enormously powerful in the in the situation in a parasitic way that's the whole point to understand the huge parasites on on the back of industrial capital but that's the way the system is developed and because it hasn't been overthrown this is what's happened this is the peculiar you know develop an evolution of the system itself but it makes it more unstable under those circumstances because um you know financial crises can can happen far quicker far more deeper and have a bigger effect than they did previously if finance was a small sector well you can have a crisis there well yeah this is just a small sector but if finances integral to the whole uh system then a financial crisis can can trigger the whole um enterprise into a crisis and that's precisely what happened in 2007 2008 you had a financial crisis there's runs in the bank uh was it the northern rock just as well i took my money out just before i did it uh the biggest uh the run in the bank uh the only run in the bank actually since uh for 144 years in britain you know that's quite the long long time in menaco of course you had the the uh the collapse of best loans and uh also the well the whole financial structure in america was that much much more developed and they were forced to go far further to bail out capitalism in america bail out the banks nationalised sectors of the economy uh was it fanny may and and uh uh what's the other one funny mac they uh were taken into nationalised they were nationalised in fact the chinese are a bit of a laugh they said this is uh socialism with american characteristics i think they said that's a bit of a joke and even godin brown you know had intervened you know taken over northern rock and uh you know Lloyd's and all the rest of it and uh he said there's some some right wing uh uh mp a bit of a dickhead he said that uh he's taken he's taken more action against capitalism than Lenin did in 1917 which is a i think Lenin was trying to overthrow it and godin brown was trying to save it there was a bit of a difference but there were um uh pretty odd at all these quirks you know they're you know implementing finally the 1983 manifesto and stuff like that but they were trying to they save it they were saving capitalism bailing it out they were even now they didn't they didn't know what to do they didn't know where this was going and um they how did they do it well they they reduced interest rates to zero they reduced interest rates to negative interest rates you had the lowest interest rates according to Blanche Flower from the who's done the the monetary committee of the bank of England for 5 000 years he said that was a bit of a i don't know was an exaggeration but 5 000 huge huge measures were taken quantitative easing no one knew what the old quantity easing was giving money to the financial institutions the bank in america it was 85 billion uh a month wasn't it in in in europe it was so almost as as much as that you mean the incredible amounts of money handing over to bail the system out to keep the fluid and even then the recovery didn't happen that was the joke about it they did everything the only thing it saved capitalism was probably the chinese because they immediately gave rise to an expansion a speculative expansion and 10 percent of their economy was was spent on a new stimulus package which kind of stabilised things a bit there i mean you had a huge collapse in in industrial production a third collapse you know collapsed by a third in world trade people were put on short time working factories were being closed down it was a big effect in the working class but they were terrified this was the beginning and it was you look at the angle time to quote them now because we're running out of time but the actual um graph of decline in the first uh uh six months and 12 months was mirroring that of 1929 31 they were terrified that this was it there's going to be a depression that will be and the only thing that saved them was this huge wall of money they were prepared to pour in you know in order to save the banking system and reduce interest rates to below zero for eight years man you know if it was a if it was like six months or nine months or 12 months you know that was that's a short term emergency measure they kept it going when this must be a boom there was a recovery in verticomas you know it was a very weak one the weakest recovery in history but they kept it going because of the low interest rates because of this amount of cash being poured into the system where did they get the cash from the government where they get a government get it from the austerity that we had to pay to pay that's the that's the loop of course they cut in the work they've cut the living standards of the working class you cut the living standards of the workers you will cut the market of capitalism so they're in the doll drums all the way along the line because whatever they do they make a contradiction for themselves and although they can push push the boat push the boat out a bit further inevitably you're going to reach a a brick wall and that's what they are doing at the present time they're worried now the biggest worry is not is there going to be another slump they recognize this is going to be another slump the financial times the economists you name it they recognize this is going to be a slump pretty soon um they can't avoid it but what they're worried about is how deep with the slump be and what measures can they have they got in order to slow the slump down or make it less effective less less yeah less of an effect and they look down and think guys we haven't got anything we've used it all up you know america there's two stopped the i've stopped the bailout all right then the only ones you have the europeans are still continuing it the japanese are still continuing it there's a slow down now in europe there's a slow down in china it's not a very good economic situation there's negative interest rates for for most of the world apart from the usa and that's going to create problems because they put interest rates up in the united states when interest rates are low everywhere else you increase the value of the of the dollar which is happening now and then you've got economies which rely on the dollar these emerging economies in particular and they've got they're being throttled because their debts are denominated in dollars and if there's a rise in the value of the dollar the actual burden of the debt they've got gets bigger and bigger and bigger for these so it's okay for us like but the the knock on effect is enormous for those countries that rely on the dollar which is a lot of countries and we've seen it already in argentina we've seen it in turkey we've seen it in mexico all these things are starting to rumble now and there's going to be a general slow down in these emerging it's not an emerging they decline in in effect economies as we've seen but this is the picture as they head towards this new economic slump it's like as trust you're tobogganing with your eyes closed towards disaster because that's the only yeah but because they have no means and they everyone martin wolf in the financial times what are we going to do what are we going to do we haven't got anywhere to go what are we going they're all kind of panicking we should do this we should do that the only problem is they're not going to do it they can't do it and they even said the political will is not there as well because obviously what we've got now is the possible trade war um on the cards because obviously trump has made it clear that trade war is a great they're wonderful things well uh i don't know where he brought up like but uh clear trade war would have a colossal impact on the world economy and would result in beg of thy neighbor policies because all they would have different restrictions being imposed tariffs being imposed on different countries and we haven't got a slump yet so when the slump comes you can imagine this they'll rush to protect their industries that's what that's what's going to happen in america they'll do the same in china they'll do the same in europe and the whole thing has a knock on effect as in the 1930s and therefore this the 2008 slump was a little foretaste of the crisis period that we've entered because it's not a crisis period it's an organic crisis that the system has exhausted itself it is senile it is and it's death agony to trotski of course it's not it won't die a death and and that's the end of it it won't it will always find a way out and it'll always find a way at the expense of the working class you can always do that you can destroy the productive forces in a way that you've not seen but for them they they can't do it as they did in 1939 they can't have a world war that's the problem it got rid of it quite effectively you destroy it but if world war is ruled out which it is because you can only have nuclear war and even the you know the the capitalists are not stupid they don't want to destroy the you know the goose that lays a golden egg you know destroy destroy the productive forces completely that's it so they don't want they won't want to nuclear war clearly but they can't have a conventional war either so they stuck with this massive overproduction that will if you like will will just impact itself internally on society and you'll have in my opinion huge economic crisis within the the west and america and everywhere else it'll impact everywhere as the as the last crisis didn't do in that way and they won't be able to do anything about it they can quantitative you that's good you know it's it's like pouring water on a hot stove it just evaporate the only way they can do it is destroy the only way capitalism get rid of is destroy the productive forces that's massive employment closing factories destroying industry destroying the valley the values will go up in smoke all these the stock exchange and that'll just you know lose thousands and thousands of points and they'll disappear overnight it's fictitious capital anyway in the in the main but never this the real productive forces will be destroyed or they were tempted to destroy them they tried to do it in the past by the way and i'll sum up in a minute and they haven't done it very effectively they call it um zombie capitalism why why zombie capitalism well it's half alive and half dead because interest rates are so low they can get they can actually they can survive so that because the real means that capitalism can destroy a and the minor crisis or get rid of a crisis is to destroy the productive forces which gives rise to overproduction if those productive forces are limping along and you have destroyed them and obviously the recovery which you've seen is going to be very very weak and that's precisely what you've had a very very weak historically weak recovery and our new crash a possible depression on the basis of a world war bloody hell this is going to be one hell of a ride for workers everywhere and any illusions that some people had despite the church of england having a prayer on the rest they didn't want a bloody prayer to get out of that one but the working class will be affected in in such a way as it will provoke them to look for fundamental change in society and they will not be near the illusions that are there before will be undermined and destroyed and as we said the crisis of capitalism is a crisis of reformism the idea we can you know change society bit by bit it'll have a revolutionising in my opinion on the advanced sections of the working class and the youth they'll be radicalised this isn't this is not because or isn't it great of a recession isn't it great of a slump it's what is coming we just tell the truth about the situation and also show the impact it's have if the workers don't overthrow capitalism then it will survive a terrible cost to them and their families it'll get out of it in certain in certain way only just to provide only to prove to to give way to another crisis so in effect um what we got here this permanent crisis i mean the working class don't believe there's a boom you know they don't believe there this is wonderful it's a permanent crisis and therefore that shows the the senile decay of capitalism it shows the system is exhausted itself completely this is not just a cyclical crisis this is a crisis which is an endemic to the capitalist system that they cannot get out of and will mean a huge therefore offensive against the working class itself there's no other two ways about it so this is going to be a product of also of great class struggle and revolutionary events will be on the order of the gate under those circumstances and you read the bourgeois kind of commentators they haven't got a clue they have no idea and well that shows the the shallowness of their their their thinking anyway but we as Marxists have to understand and explain patiently what is coming in the Labour party amongst the youth and the trade unions and to say that that we cannot tolerate a slump we cannot tolerate these attacks and there's the the need therefore to overthrow capitalism because if we can't overthrow it the productive potential that's created will will provide us with a world of enormous prosperity enormous abundance that we can't imagine so that's the the prize if you like of of the abolition of capitalism and the development of a world socialist order thank you