 Let's jump over to our man Teddy kegs at folks. You can check out Teddy under newsletters the tiger 4x report He puts out an outstanding letter every Monday and updates when warranted throughout the week We talked to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour Always an interesting one when we talked to him on an interesting day like today like fed day teddy kegs dad. Good morning Good morning Tommy. Yeah, we have an exciting day today. Don't win. Oh boy, man I don't know as I was mentioned to Kevin Hinks I said, we'll know a lot more when I talk to you tomorrow in 24 hours than we do today because we find out a lot today, man Where where do you wait? I guess let's jump to the fed teddy What do you what are you anticipating if anything this this afternoon from chairman Powell? Well, I think three-quarter point no matter what is something that should be expected The full point. I don't know. It's very possible. I think it's factored into the market already So but yeah, I think for sure you're going to see a three-quarter point with the potential of a full point You know and especially now that we have the ecb that's starting to Get hawkish. I think that there's no reason why Powell would slow down his course of action, if you will and how would that Play into things with the ecb. I guess is is When you look at I mean we have the dollar index surging even higher today, right? We got some action going on with the dollar pushing one 10 86 was the overnight. We're at 110 75 right now Even though the ecb is hiking I guess is the way to put it that doesn't seem like it's slowing down What's happening at all whether it's our yields or the dollar at all Yeah, I think that the ecb thing is only putting on the brakes a little bit as far as the euro-us dollar trade is concerned I still am very bearish that market I mean their three-quarter point is only going to be canceled out by whatever we do today at the very least You know if not actually taken over if we do a full point. So that makes it basically a moot, you know Action if you will so the euro-us dollar. I think it's still going to trend lower I wouldn't doubt that after today you may see a little profit taking rally going on against the dollar I mean, why wouldn't you you know now you got to realize that the three-quarter point was is definitely factored in A lot of people are facting factoring in the full point The fed speak is going to be important. Are they are we looking we know that they're going to remain hawkish? The question is are they going to be firing on all cylinders? Remember six months ago we were talking about you know the fed raising rates every meeting at about a half a percent Maybe three quarters here or there You know so and they started out with the haves now they're three quarters You know, it's it's a very aggressive action that's going on right now And the question is how long are they going to maintain this? You know and I was had a really interesting conversation with somebody in the real estate industry just the other day If you look at the yields and are excuse me the mortgage rates just in one year They've they've tripled. You're going up 300 percent at going into this meeting if they raise a full point or even three quarters Of a point you're basically up 300 percent now when you're coming off of next to zero A 300 gain is not that big of a deal But still it is a big jump as far as what rates are doing to the marketplace, you know Now we're not going to maintain that kind of rate You know like I wouldn't if if interest rates are up 300 percent from where they are right now Going into today next year. Then we have a really serious issue You know because mortgage rates will be in the teens, you know So um, but I think for sure listen to what pal has to say after this meeting And I think he's going to stay aggressive I think that what the stance that he has is he's going to remain hawkish into the rest of the year Especially with the way the economic numbers have been coming out Yeah, that cpi number right and we still have an unemployment rate that by historical standards, man It's pretty low. So we're gaining hundreds of thousands of jobs a month, man We got unemployment at 3.5 3.6 percent and we have inflation raging. So yeah, I would say that they should keep the the pedal um To the metal as they would say what do you think of russia, man? And the news going on with russia impacting things at all in terms of you know that the the energy the crude we got crude sitting pretty Healthy at 85 dollars isn't not that bad of a price tag right now 85 especially with potentially things ratcheting up with Putin over there Well, especially with crude right now, you know We had that buy signal that we put out in the report a couple weeks ago Crude has been holding, you know, I mean it's kind of bobbling off the lows I think especially with this russian thing that no matter what things are going to escalate when it comes to commodity prices again We're in the fall We're coming into winter these all these energy issues with the eu They're going to come to ruse sooner than later. Well, that's for sure You know, you gotta realize we are very very lucky even in the us with the way I mean the climatologists will tell you the earth that the earth is falling apart But we haven't had any major storms in the us that we normally have going into the fall You know, we haven't had houston hit with any hurricanes So that has that hasn't had any we haven't had any disruptions on the refinery or supply side in america Which is weird for this time of year. Usually we will have had at least one major storm hit houston, you know It's like clockwork now globally the same issue is there now. We're coming into winter What happens if the weather starts to really go hard this this this winter come november and december The price the energy prices in europe are crippling them if the ukraine and russian conflict This is not going to be over in six months. This is not going to end Anytime soon, you know, no, I don't hopefully it doesn't get escalating on a really bad way But there is no way I can see this panning out that we're going to have some kind of Peace talks or neutrality or easing up on anything, you know over the next six months The sanctions that are on russia aren't hurting russia They're destroying the the economy of the eu right now And they're also affecting all kinds of other trade balances across the world You know lines in the sand were drawn by these sanctions Those are not going to go away even if you have peace talks between the ukraine and russia You know, I mean the reality is india china these things. They're in motion. They're set in stone now Why would they come back to the table with the united states or even europe or any of these other countries that have now put them Through all this financial nightmare because on their's their end they're looking at like well, we're not involved in this war Why do we have to have our economy suffer because of what you're doing? To act, you know for your actions, you know, and I think it's all going to come to roost I think that the dollar right now We're riding a nice little wave higher, but when this thing turns, you know And it could really turn very quickly next year You're going to see a sell-off in the dollar like you saw on the bonds over the past year You know and that's going to be very big you were talking about where the dollar index was a year ago We can be back at those levels in less than a one year's time when we go when we start going the other way Wherever we eventually turn because yeah, we will get over that at some point as in I think you know at least you have a chairman who may be late to the party of the fed but Seems like the focus is there and it seems like fortunately our economy can handle it right now At least better than europe in terms of really, you know Crushing things to the point of getting inflation under control and having an economy that yeah might not be as good as it's been But hopefully the the fed doesn't completely destroy that where they have to come into the rescue following that What do you think uh, let's jump to the dollar yen. All right, because I was kind of surprised to see we got dollar yen Up a bit we got gold up even ten dollars But gold man near near recent lows you're talking about years But what's your take on the yen teddy as we push 144 kind of similar where you're just chopping around in this area uh, well right now, excuse me, I think that uh After the meeting when then when the number gets hiked up I think for sure you're going to see a little spike into us dollar yen They've already hit through some key resistance with um I mean in the very short amount of time over the past few weeks to begin with And I think that there's no way to see that no reason to think that these levels aren't going to keep continuing To make higher move highs and higher move lows So I think that after the meeting we're going to probably see if not today over the next couple sessions We're going to see new highs in the end. I can see it's going to 150 over the next couple of weeks If not the next two weeks or so and will that eventually get the same type of pullback like the dollar When that when that turns in the years to come Oh, well eventually. Yeah, that will but it's going to take, you know, real Much here hang with us for one more segment. Okay, teddy perfect. We'll be right back folks talk a little again to finish it up Welcome back folks. We get the s&p's up about 23 points right now trading at 38 96 We're talking to our man teddy keg stats. So just finishing up teddy talking about, you know, because it is interesting to think about Right, we have the dollar index charging above 110 once we eventually maybe roll over maybe once the fed gets inflation under control They don't have to be as restrictive Yields come into things. Of course, maybe that rolls over. Uh, now is that going to translate Of course, it's going to translate to dollar pairings versus any currency But the way the yen has written up there is that kind of a market that you could look for similar top That that would be tied to that type of a rollover in the dollar Oh, I think that once we start to see the the fed not be so hawkish that that would Give us a good situation for a correction I think really the only way you're going to see a big correction in the yen Though is if we have another big sell-off in oil, you know, that's one of the big things and I would say If we get a bounce in the bonds in the tenure, which is very likely after this fed meeting, you know In a couple sessions now, I would think that we may still push the lows first You know spike before we uh, you know reverse for a correction, but we're we're due for a correction I mean the way the bonds in the tenure over trade now There's no reason to not see that we would have a three four basis handle correction If we have something like that we could easily have a four out of six dollar sell-off in the yen You know, so I mean right now we're trading around 143 To get back to 137 for a bounce very very likely, you know I think that going any lower than that you could maybe get down to the 135 area But that would be if we have like a week and a half to two weeks of the um yields basically trending lower in the us on the tenure in the third year Which could very easily happen in between the next fed meetings We have a little gap now between this meeting and the next meeting So for us to have a bounce, you know going against the trend of the fed the market I mean you got to realize The mortgage the bankers right now are scrambling for people to refinance because they know that rates are going up I mean I had a conversation with somebody yesterday You know that they were trying to get people to refinance and lock them in yesterday I'm like well, that would be a good thing to do because tomorrow it's going to be up a full point Sure. No, I hear you man. The end is not in sight just yet in my opinion But we get to find out today. Teddy. Thanks for taking the time as always man. We appreciate it We'll talk to you next wednesday folks. Check out the tiger 4x report Thanks so much for tuning in starting your day. Stay tuned. Basil's up next folks. It's fed day. Don't go away. We'll be right back