 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com weekend update show. It's actually not the weekend yet. It is Friday. It's around 20 minutes to five. Usually I'm just relaxing kind of decompressing, you know, taking all in of the week. But I fully guys who are travel parents. This is, you know, the start of a couple of weeks ago started the AAU basketball season. You guys know what that is. I got three games tomorrow from my daughter and my son has, I think four games this weekend. So this is literally the only time I could share my thoughts. Hopefully everybody is doing well. If you are brand new to the channel, guys, thank you very much for finding us for tuning in. All we ask is take one second. That's all it takes. Take one second. I hit the like button, subscribe, share and come on board. So I guess you trade long enough. You see everything, right? I think that's the name of the game. I've always said that time is the ultimate equalizer. The more screen time you have, the more you can identify situations, scenarios and learn how to dodge them, right? I think that's the most important part. Learning how to dodge missiles and not stepping on landmines is probably one of the best things you can give yourself. One of the greatest gifts you could teach yourself has to be as a trader, all the signs. But sometimes the market does such a great job that you don't see the missiles coming. You don't see the grenades pointed right at your feet. You don't see them. And that's exactly what happened today, not today, but that's exactly what happened this week in the market. Number one, the indexes are really not going to paint the story. You have the S&P down 1.6%. Again, not small, not big, but again, good enough. The NASDAQ 100 down half of a percent. Again, doesn't scream anything, doesn't jump off the page. The Dow Jones down about 2.5% is kind of a big deal. We'll kind of get to the severity of certain indexes here in a second. But it was the wildness. It was the aggressive nature. It was the data. Some data was the same. Some data was interpreted different. I think a lot of the traders, especially in the last 24 hours, got caught off guard. And let me explain. So Wednesday, we had the core CPI number. We came in, I think a tenth of a percent, hotter than normal. And the market tank, right? The Dow was down like four or 500 points. The NASDAQ was down almost 200, 200 and change. And the next day, with literally the same data, the market was awaiting for the PPI. And we got the PPI number, which basically the inflation reading, let's be honest, did not change in the 24 hours. So the results of what happened next was not something I think a lot of traders saw coming. So we had this really aggressive rally yesterday, really aggressive. The PPI number was wrong. The CPI number was wrong, but the price action was the most important part. And yesterday, we had this just an amazing rally. Remember the numbers, guys? We were talking about throughout the whole week. We talked about two numbers, right? We talked about watching the video throughout the week. We talked about 443.20s to the upside and 435 to the downside. Well, yesterday, we confirmed 433 to the upside and the market just absolutely exploded. Just went absolutely nuts in the afternoon. And the queues went from 443 all the way to 446. And this was the highest close, literally in the last two weeks. And we were literally on the cusp of attacking the reversal candle from April the 4th. Remember that crazy, crazy day? On April 4th, the Nasdaq were reversed like 15 points off the highs. We were very, very close. And you saw some phenomenal looking setups coming into today's session. NVIDIA looked ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous. Microsoft looked like it was about to take out highs. Meta looked like it was about to take out highs. It just looked so good. I can't tell you how many of my buddies were long technology overnight. I was long. I was long NVIDIA overnight, right? Everything looked great. The NVIDIA chart looked amazing. I mean, just absolutely amazing, right? Absolutely amazing. It got above three supply zones, took out everything, literally took out everything. All it needed to do is get above this 908 level on the 10 day. And we would have been having this conversation in 922. And at the same time, yesterday, they were coming for the May 17 $1,000 calls. One after another after another after another five, six, $700,000 bets. So we were all set up. Everything was great. And then you wake up this morning. You see news of tension. Iran is going to, allegedly, I mean, who the hell knows, right? Is 48 hours away from a possible strike on Israel's government, you know, government agencies. You have the China crisis. You have China again coming out with coming out with PRs that again, we're going in house on our chips. AMD is going to be affected. Intel is going to be affected pretty much the same music. And then next thing you know, everything that basically happened yesterday and the QQQ that had this phenomenal, I mean, absolutely phenomenal explosion out of this range, gave it all back. Just gave it literally all back. And if you look at the final data points, say, you know, pretty ugly senior, you know, you have, let's see, the final numbers here. You got the down, down 475 points. You got the S&P down to one and a half percent. And you have the NASDAQ down 267 points or 1.62. Thank goodness. The only thing that saved me was I was we're up about going into the overnight was up about six points into the overnight on the video. And I shorted to use as a hedge. Again, I'm just it's just one of those things that I just don't trust anything. I came this close of not taking a hedge. And thank goodness who we gap down this morning, you know, the video is down like eight, nine rallied back a little bit. The Qs went down like four and a half. So if it wasn't for Qs, I would have a really, really crappy day. But the point is, I think a lot of traders got caught off guard both days, both days, not even just today's sell off, but yesterday's rally. And I tell you, you know, this is, you know, you trade long enough, you're going to eventually be humble, like humble, very, very aggressive. So for, you know, a little message from new traders, you're never as good as the market. Okay, you never as good as you think, and you never as bad as you think the market will give you every reason to think that you can walk on water, sip on your own Kool-Aid. And then one day you're feeling yourself. Everything's all good. And they really, really do. They really pull up. They really pull a ditty on you. No, did it. Right. And the most important part, kind of a takeaway going into this week is what happens next. Obviously, the news, Iran, Israel over the weekend, it's going to be a very fluid situation. Right now it's almost a quarter to five on Friday. By the time you guys watch this video, whether it's today, Saturday or Sunday, there's going to be a million different headlines. We don't know, you know, is it possible? There's some sort of shoes knock on wood. Is it possible? There's an all out attack. It's possible. The United States is always involved. Everybody's involved. So again, it's a domino effect. It's not just, you know, what happens there stays there. It's a very big domino effect. And obviously it's going to affect the equities markets on Monday. But if you look at the scoreboard, right? If you look at the scoreboard on the indexes, this is where you have to kind of open up your eyes and smell reality. Let's start off with the Dow Jones, right? Let's use the divans as a proxy. So the Dow lost the reversal bar on April the fourth, four days ago, which also confirmed the 50 day moving average. Keep that in mind, right? Keep that in mind. Put this aside for a second, losing the 50 day moving average. And what happened next, it lost the 50 day moving average and it went to next measure potential, which was right here, which was the 100 day EMA, right? So lost the 50, went out to the 100 day EMA. That is the line in the sand now. The lowest today, the line in the sand for the Dow. Dow starts losing the 100 day. There's another 7 to 8 points. That means another 7 to 800 Dow points potentially could get hit. Look at the SPX, right? We'll use the spies, you know, we'll use the spies of parameter. Again, let's remember that 50 day moving average, right? The S&P also gave back that CPI bar, their reversal bar. It closed below. But the S&P or the spies, they held the 50 day moving average today. Remember the Dow closed below. It had a nice 4 or 5 day swan dive. While the SPY held the 50 day moving average today. Let me tell you guys in nuts and bolts numbers. Here's the line in the sand for the bulls, right? You see this 5107 level, okay? The bulls need to hold 5107, okay? If we don't hold 5107 and this whole 5100 area closes, then you have, you know, you have your next measure potential all the way down to 50-52, okay? Look at the IWM. Russell today, just like the Dow, lost the 50 day moving average 3 days ago and just what we talk about all the time. When you lose the 50 day moving average, nothing good is going to happen. It's a sell signal. Don't think anything other than that. It's a sell signal. And you see the IWM in the last couple of days, lose the 50 day go from 203 all the way down to 197. And last but not least is the NASDAQ 100 or the QQQs. This is the only one of the indexes that has not lost that reversal bar yet. Coincidentally, the reversal bar is also the 50 day moving average. Guys, I can't echo the sentiment how important it is for the QQs to hold 435 next week, right? Because we got above the 435, full 43, ran up about three, four points. Reverse today, right, back in the range. I can't implore how important it is, especially if you are a long-term investor, a swing trader, excuse me. Once we lose it, again, this is an if, we want to make sure everybody's prepared. If the QQQ starts losing 435, especially on the close, it starts filling in this whole gap. This move is not that crazy. It's only to about 430, 431. What gets crazy is if it starts losing that 430, 431, then you have another 10 points of downside into the 100 day EMA. Again, I don't want to put the card in front of the horse, but I want to make sure that if you're watching this broadcast, it's not just one of those things, ah, you have the 50 day moving average. All those useless lines on your charts, right? All the nonsense. Don't worry. I'm a swing trader. I'll be all right. Well, that's fair. Again, it's your day and your day. But keep this in mind, when we lost a 50 day moving average in 2022, the NASDAQ went down 34%. Nobody's saying that's going to happen, but at least be aware of history. Remember the old saying, those people who refuse to acknowledge history, they're going to be the ones who are going to repeat it. Again, this is your opportunity to get your ducks in a row, make sure that either hedge your long positions with either Qs, whatever the case may be, spies, or do something proactive. They'll just sit there. And if in case we do lose the 50 day moving average, hoping it's going to come back up. Maybe it does. Maybe it doesn't. It took a whole calendar year from 2022 to 2023 to come back up. And at that time, the Qs lost about 34% of the value. So going into this week, guys, do or die. This is it. Do or die here, 435 on the QQQs. If we lose the 435 area, not good. Okay, not good. I trade both sides of the market. Matter of fact, if you are interested in learning pivots, and that's all we do, we trade pivots, whether it's daily, intraday, we talk about the sneaky pivots all the time. If you are interested in pivots, guys, again, click the link in the comments, 30 days, kick the tires. Try out the PS60 theory. You're going to like it. You're going to, especially if you trade intraday, you are going to like it because it's abnormal. It's an abnormal way, right? It's an abnormal way of looking at the market that most people are not aware of trading between channels. So you're not training from position of weakness. You're always trading at a position of strength. But going into this week, 435 line the sand. There's no rumor interpretation here. That is the big number. And if we close below 435, just rip out your buy button until we reclaim it back. Again, all over the place. Nvidia looked great yesterday. Great. The initial pivot was above 877. Went all the way up to 907. And again, technically today, it put in an inside day. So in case we rally tomorrow on Monday, let's watch the top of the range here. But again, if it starts losing back the 5-day moving average, just like everything else, I don't care how strong the stock that you're in or you're watching or you're looking to buy, nothing's going to hold up if we lose the 50-day moving average. But again, on the surface, right? On the surface again, because we can't assume we're going to lose the 50-day on the surface. At least Nvidia had an inside day that potentially if the market does rally back on Monday Tuesday, this thing could actually still wake up. Ironically, the strongest name that held up was the biggest dog for the last calendar year, was Apple. And this is a learning lesson to all the companies out there. Just use the word AI. You'll be good. Apple did so. And look at the run. Look at the run it had in the last couple of days. Again, still underneath supply, still got rejected at the 50-day moving average. So it still needs a little bit of work to do to get going. But again, this is something that at least is encouraging if you are an Apple shareholder. Rivian. You guys remember Rivian? Rivian finally cracked. Finally, finally cracked. We shorted this thing yesterday at $10. I'm still running about 20% of my runner. It closed a little bit less, a little bit above nine. I would love to see this thing close in the eighth sometime next week. And it really does show you the longer the distribution. We've been talking about this name for a while. The longer the distribution, finally the higher probability will crack. It finally did crack. We did see some June, July, eight and seven and a half puts. Hopefully they will get paid off. Tesla continues to be very, very tight in the range. It's just not going anywhere fast. Again, every single time you think it's going to wake up, it gets rejected. Every single time it looks at you about the breakdown, it comes back up. It has a lot of lives. But the most important part, I want to watch this intermediate channel here to the downside going through this next week. And obviously last week's highs is a potential barometer. Microsoft, they looked great, great, great. Now it's just holding on. It's holding on to this bottom channel here. Again, you need to start getting ideas if the key start losing the 50-day. I definitely want to watch the bottom channel here as well on Microsoft. And let me give you guys, let me see what else looks interesting that I can share with you guys. Reddit, look at Reddit, guys, look at Reddit. Reddit is now several days. Remember we talked about it below the IPO lows. It's now several days below it. Watch this week's lows. If they start breaking down this week's lows and the market gets pulled, you can see the measure potential here all the way down the linear regression line all the way down to this 40, maybe 35 level if the market gets extreme. And the last one was AMD. AMD broke, you guys remember, broke that reversal bar. Traded all the way down to the 100-day EMA. Guys, watch this AMD again in case the market breaks next week. This thing starts losing the 100-day. There's a lot of room down. We are ready. We are not sitting there hoping the market does one thing or the other. We are ready for both sides. And again, there's a big difference. When you start your trading career, you have to ask yourself, you have to sit down and ask yourself a really honest question. Do I want to be a person who buys stocks in a bull market, which you have every right to do? Or do I want to be a trader? Only you can answer that question. It's not a career, but you. But if you do opt for door number two, there's a lot of work involved. There's a lot of understanding of moving parts, supply and demand. But once you have enough screen time and it all makes sense, it makes your transition to both sides of the market that much more seamless. So guys, have a great week, everybody. God bless you all. Stay healthy. Hopefully, there'll be no significant bad news over the weekend coming out of the Middle East. And with God's help, I'll see you all Monday. Take care, everybody. Have a great night.