 Hey everyone, what's going on? I am Greg Sossman, joined by our own game, Marenzie, who's here to help me break down week 12 with the six best bets of the week. What's happening, Gabe? Ready to rock, Greg. Only six weeks left of National Football League regular season of play. The holidays are around the corner. It's time to win. It's always time to win. So let's begin in the NFC South. The Panthers and the Saints, Saints are a big time favorite, but you don't like either side here. Well, you know what? When I first saw the number of this game, I wanted to take the Carolina Panthers and I'm still tempted to take the Carolina Panthers, but I can't overlook just how bad they are on the road. I also can't overlook the fact that Kyle Allen's now throwing eight interceptions in his last four football games. But what does stand out to me about this game, and you know, you'll often hear me talk about historical data and trends. And if you notice, I've been betting a lot of division games this year. Why? Because we have a lot of past history and the history of this series has been a pretty consistent one. The last 10 times they played, eight times it's gone over the number. 80%, that's right, eight of the last 10 times, these two teams have lined up against each other. It's gone over the number. The last five times that they have played in Bayou country, it has also gone over the number. Now the Saints were winning without Drew Brees with Teddy Bridgewater. And now Drew Brees is back. He's starting to get a little bit of a rhythm right now. They're averaging nearly 25 points a game in three games that he's come back. I expect the Saints to get into the mid-20s, probably into the high 20s, maybe the low 30s. I think this football game's total is too low. I think we're looking at a, you know, 30, 23 game, 27, 23, 28, 21. You know, the Panthers could backdoor this game but that's the problem. If we take the current line of Panthers here we're gonna kind of have to be hoping that the Panthers are able to climb the fence in the backyard and break in the backdoor. It's just not something I wanna do but we're gonna ride the numbers on this one. 46 and a half is more than a fair enough number. Let's go with the over 46 and a half. Two offensive teams going at it between the Saints and the Panthers. Maybe the Panthers get in there when it's all said and done. Let's not make that one of our best bets. Let's go over 46 and a half with Carolina and New Orleans. And Drew Brees, Drew Brees for you prop players and DFS players as well. I wanna know Drew Brees, 22 touchdown passes, just five interceptions this last seven games against Carolina. Always plays well. I expect them to play well on Sunday. Let's move on and we get to the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals. Steelers are a six and a half point favorite. The total sits at about 38 and a half. Pittsburgh expected to be without James Connor, Juju Smith, Schuster potentially, Deontay Johnson and the Bengals. Will they just suck? What do you think, Gabe? Well, you know, it's not my job to be an NFL insider and give you breaking news like a Jay Glazer and Adam Schefter, but I will. My sources tell me that the Pittsburgh Steelers are actually getting players from Indeed.com right now this weekend. They don't have a choice. They have to outsource. So if you've ever dreamed of playing in a national football league game, this might be your chance on Sunday. Like right now there's a bunch of arena football league players calling the Steelers. Yo, I'm available. I'm available if you need me. Where do we even start here? Smith, Schuster out with a concussion. Connor out with a shoulder injury. Pouncey out because he's a crazy person and he suspended after the melee. Oh yeah, they already have a backup quarterback that got hit over the head with a freaking helmet last week as well. But with all that being stated, they're playing against the Cincinnati Bengals. And we talk about tank mode a lot and no player goes on a field one and lose a game. An organization might want to lose the game, but you know, people don't realize this. The players on the field, they don't want to lose so the team gets a better draft pick. So the team takes a player that replaces them, right? You know, if you just sort of do the math on this, you realize no player is going on the field wanting to lose. But the fact of the matter is, man, the Cincinnati Bengals are trying to lose. They've got Ryan Finley as their quarterback right now. Andy Dalton wasn't their problem. Ryan Finley is not their future. He's averaging 3.3 yards per pass play, guys. Like Greg Sussman is probably about, like, eight yards away from me right now. Like the distance that a camera is probably about five yards. Like Ryan Finley's averaging 3.3 yards per pass play, guys. That's all we need to say here. Joe Nixon rushed the ball, what, 45 times last week? What does that say about what they think about their quarterback? And the Pittsburgh Steelers are very good against the run as well. Cincinnati's gonna have a hard time moving the ball here. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh, as I mentioned, no conner, they don't have, you know, anyone really to throw the ball to. With all that being stated, I like, you know, I was just gonna bet the under of this game. I just don't see how they're gonna get the 39 points of these two teams. But ultimately, I think Pittsburgh's gonna find a way to win this game and cover the number as well. They've owned these guys. They've won eight straight times. There's six and two against the spread, against Cincinnati. Cincinnati's like one in nine, the last 10 times they played on their home field against the spread. The Bengals are a bad football team who are playing to get Joe Burrow right now. Joe Burrow, LSU quarterback, he's from Ohio, all right? He was like the football player, Mr. Ohio, type of deal in the state. He was at Ohio State before he transferred to LSU. He's a perfect fit for the Cincinnati Bengals. They don't even wanna win. Steelers need this. They get it. Ugly low scoring game. Steelers cover, it goes under the number. Neither of these teams have players as game so eloquently stated. And even though I'm not ready to go out there and play, Ryan Finley really isn't either. The points won't be there. So go under this number and Pittsburgh are good enough to get past these Cincinnati Bengals and cover the spread game. And if you're not convinced yet, I could go one. Both teams are four and one to the under in their last five games. The last three in the series have gone under the number. Get your shovel out. Start digging. We're digging for gold, all right? Black and gold. Give us the Steelers and give us the under. Up next, the Atlanta Falcons are taking on the other team in the NFC South. It's Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Falcons are a three and a half point favorite and they played a lot better as of late year game coming out of the buy. Defense has looked good as well. Tampa Bay's defense, not really. James Winston, a turnover machine. So going with the Falcons seems like an easy one but you also like the total here as well. Yeah, I find it interesting. Every week, a lot of handicappers and let's call it, you know, sort of the hipsters and the gaming community in the football betting world like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Remember about three weeks ago or so they were playing against Tennessee. Everybody loved the Bucs. Remember when Tampa Bay went into Seattle? Oh, it's a weird spot for Seattle at home. They don't cover it at home. Tampa, guys, the Tampa Bay, let's not over complicate things, all right? Keep it simple, stupid. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are two and eight straight up. They're two and eight against the spread. You bet on the Bucs every year, every week this year. You have one twice, all right? Yeah, conversely, if you bet on the over every week with the Bucs, you've only lost twice, all right? This team's a pretty simple team. Let's not over complicate things, all right? So let's see, they're two and eight straight up. They're two and eight against the spread, all right? Check, let's bet against them. And they're eight and two to the over, all right? Now the Falcon defense has played better. They've only given up 12 points over the last two games. Blowout wins over the Panthers and Saints, no less, pretty impressive what the Falcons have done. Now, Dan Quinn hasn't fully saved his job yet, yet he's on his way. The Falcons have as much talent as anybody in the national football league. They were caught in some weird, like, Twilight Zone vortex. Yeah, it was like to be mute a triangle. They were lost in some sort of black hole, but they're back. And this isn't a team that's trying to play for draft picks or anything like that. The Buccaneers are playing a football team in Atlanta that's gonna wanna win their third consecutive game. I think they do actually. And I'll tell you what, the Falcons have been a good bet against division foes. They're on a 14 and four straight up division run right now. I think they win another. And once again, the betting public and the hipsters are taking a Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You know what, I've never really cared much for hipsters. Give me the Atlanta Falcons. Let's dance the dirty bird and soar with the over. We're flying with the dirty bird this week, going with the Falcons, going over the number. Old school. Because you can't lose if you go over the number with Tampa Bay as Gabe's expressed it a few moments ago. Going over and taking the Falcons. One last game to get to game of the day. It's the Cowboys and the Patriots. I know our own Frank Staple has been banging the table for the Cowboys outright in this game. Gabe, are you with them? You know what? I actually am with my main man, Frank Staple. But before we get to our pick here, I'm assuming Jim Nance is torn. Like I'm worried about Jim Nance, number one. I'm concerned. Like Jim Nance is gonna be as torn and as confused as to who to cheer for in this game as Meryl Streep was in Sophie's Choice when she had to decide which kid to give up. Like this is tough. Like I can imagine that like Jim Nance is like he's speaking to like a psychiatrist. I love both of them. I don't know what to do. I don't want to offend Mr. Kraft, but I also don't know what don't want to offend Mr. Jones. Yeah, this should be interesting. But all kidding aside, actually, I'm not kidding. I'm not kidding. Hard to overlook the coaching mismatch here, right? I mean, it's Jason Garrett versus Bill Belichick. Yet, you know, between these two coaches, one of them is 11-2 against the spread in the second game of back-to-back road trips. You know which one it is? Jason Garrett. I know right now I'm gonna have a lot of people like tweeting at me and calling me an idiot. I'll take the team on Sunday with a better quarterback. So in other words, I'm taking a team from Texas. Give me the Dallas Cowboys. The Dallas Cowboys have better players at nearly every freaking position on the football field. Besides, like, I don't know, quarterback and Tom Brady, who's having a better year right now? Whose offense is clicking right now? Doc Prescott has four consecutive games, guys, of a QB rating of 100 or more. I read an article a couple of days ago on Nate Silver's website, 538, that Doc Prescott's having one of the best years in NFL history at the quarterback position. I don't know why people don't want to acknowledge him. He figures since he was a quarterback for the Cowboys, he'd get love. He's not. In the last three games, he's thrown for 1,098 yards and nine touchdowns. Doc Prescott's in a freaking zone. You want to beat the New England Patriots? How do you beat the Patriots? You run the ball down their throat. You out-physical them. You intimidate them. You slap Brady around. You rush the quarterback. They can do all of this, all right? The Dallas Cowboys are young, aggressive. They're a damn good football team, this Cowboy team. You know, the thing is, Jason Garrett, he's the coach, and Jerry Jones, he's the face of this thing. It's not fun playing against the Dallas Cowboys. Their play calling can get bizarre at times, but who's doesn't in a national football league? I'm calling it right now. The Dallas Cowboys do win this game outright. They're going to go into Fox, bro. They're going to win the game outright. And then here's that part two of my Babe Ruth prediction. The Buffalo Bills will beat the Cowboys outright on Thursday. Thursday afternoon, you'll see. Cowboys are going to win this game. Skip Bayless is going to have a heart attack, and you're going to hear on Monday morning about how the Cowboys are going to win the Super Bowl. And this is as great as it's ever been. And three days later, they'll lose to the Buffalo Bills. But back press gots on the roll right now. The Pokes have scored 35 or more and three of their last four football games. We mentioned about how they're 11 and two against the spread in the second and back to back road games. They were in Detroit last week. You know, there's nothing to like about this Patriot offense right now. At worst, if they don't win the game, they cover the spread. So our official pick will be plus six and a half, but I don't have any problem at all of splitting the play into and playing the money line as well. The Dallas Cowboys win this game outright. That's me. The clapper, Jason Garrett, beating Bill Belichick outright says our own game already. Oh yeah, they're a little bonus. I like to always save one last like a court case. You know what I'm saying? One last little nugget. The last three times the Dallas Cowboys were underdogs of six points or more, they won all three games outright. Just saying. Cowboys are better in every facet of the game, says game RNC. And then of course, they go and lose the bills. That makes sense. That'll do it for us here in the band. No hurry up. At best of luck this weekend. Enjoy the games. Gabe and I will see you back here on Monday, to preview Monday night football between the Ravens and the Rams. Have a good one, everybody.