 We have ourselves a pretty thin slate for pitching for tonight in MLB DFS You got Walker Bueller face in the Cubs totally fine at that Luis Garcia face in the Tigers finally with that as well But the falloff after those two guys is Precipitous it's a fun word to say and I think it's accurate in this instance because There's not a whole lot else on this slate But I think there might be a guy on the ascent who I mentioned in might be optimizing his pitch mix in a good matchup We could potentially put in the same tier as Bueller and Garcia and I think given the lack of viable options on this slate I'm okay taking a swipe at someone who may not be fully realized just yet and locking them in We'll talk about who that is and how I'm handling them in just a bit welcome on into the solo shot That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm here to break down Thursday's eight game It may enslate what Locke said for 707 this evening There are no rain notes for today, but a couple wind notes The first one is in Buffalo for the Jays and the Orioles winds are blowing in from right at 11 miles per hour There it is 75 degrees warmer than it was the past couple of weeks in Buffalo So, you know downgrade hitters a bit but not too much there We'll talk about that game in the stacking section winds are also in from right at 13 miles per hour For the Tigers and the Astros 84 degrees there So still good hitting weather despite the fact the wind is in and I am good to go with that one for today So just a couple wind notes, but no real rain on the radar. It doesn't appear like for today We're gonna talk about the interesting dynamics at pitcher for tonight in just one second at first Got a fun little thing planned for today during our Q&A session That's at 4 p.m. On the fan dual YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter pages We usually do just a DFS that is usually at 4 p.m That will still be there in place for today. So you got questions about today's slate feel free to bop by at 4 p.m Eastern but also at 4 30 Aaron Dolan will swing by she's gonna break down her favorite bets for today You can ask her questions about hockey. She's a big hockey person basketball Baseball whatever is on your mind from a betting perspective Aaron will be here for 30 p.m Eastern at the same stream So you can watch the DFS portion at 4 o'clock then to stick around for Aaron at 4 30 to get your full fill of betting and DFS 4-2 dates that is today for p.m. Eastern on the fendal YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter pages Just make sure subscribe there to get notifications as we go live each and every day And make sure you swing by because Aaron is tremendous at what she does and it's going to be a lot of fun For today. 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New users only $10 first deposit acquired max bonus $150 a restrictions apply see full terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler in Colorado 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Iowa 1 800 bets off in Indiana 1 800 9 with it For confidential help in Michigan call 1 800 2 7 0 7 1 1 7 in Tennessee call the red line 1 800 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 or in West Virginia visit 1 800 game or dot net pitching preview for this Thursday main slate Walker Bueller is the top guy on the 8 on the night on family checks in the $11,000 we have Luis Garcia facing the Tigers at 96 Jose Barrios facing Cleveland is 9,000 Nick Pavetta at $7,800 Joe Ross is $7,400 and Zach Davies comes in at $7,000 So as you can see they're pretty big falloff after the top two guys now I would say people learn Garcia deserve to be where they are and they are my top two guys for tonight Let's go through them first and then go through the value play I like on this slate for Bueller I've been trying to pin down a most relevant sample on him all year it's been like trying to chase a cat it is not that easy and It started off where Bueller was passing over his cutter Then he went back to it then he let up on it because he's letting it too much hard contact So fewer cutters again and now he's throwing the cutter once again So it's tough to know which version of Bueller will see for tonight because the cutter gets a lot of strikeouts But also lets us some hard contact I don't know what we're gonna see for tonight for Bueller But it does seem like the most recent sample is our best glimpse at what to expect for tonight Bueller's movement on his foreseeing fastball is down over his past four starts Could be just a coincidence, but it's worth thinking into to see what he's done with the decrease movement on that foreseeing fastball Luckily for us from a DFS perspective Bueller has still been very good in that time He has a 25% strikeout rate Which is at least for this slate a pretty high number his hard hit rate is down to 34% Which is a big improvement from where it was earlier on this year when he was getting rocked using that cutter. He Has the when you combine those two together with the strikeout rate and the decreased hard contact It's allowed Bueller to go deeper into games He has gone six seven six and seven one-third innings over those past four games And he had 11 strikeouts his last time out so pitching pretty well and pitching deep in games I am not expecting 11 strikeouts because that came against Arizona You are well aware of the issues they have had he's facing a much more competent team today with the Cubs But the Cubs do strike out they have a 26% strikeout rate versus righties with a 94 WRC plus so I Honestly, don't know Which version of Bueller we will see for tonight when we see the cutters and get some strikeouts when we see Fewer cutters get no strikeouts. I don't know what we're gonna see But the good thing about Bueller is that most versions of him are a good real-world picture And that does translate to DFS at an extent so that makes me feel good about Bueller here at $11,000 I do think that he deserves to be there and he is in my top tier for tonight I say top tier because I do think that the other two guys are in the same tier as Bueller So it's not a situation where you must get to Bueller at $11,000 We've Garcia very much up there with Bueller for today the movement discussion also pertinent for him The movement on his foreseeing fastball has been down over his past three starts So that's gonna make it his most relevant sample the past three starts with less movement But similar to Bueller. He is still pitching well in that time So I will be in on Garcia at $9,600 here Big part of it is a matchup because Garcia is facing the Tigers here They have been hitting much better recently so to their credit they've been better, but it's still a 93 WRC plus versus righties with a 26% strikeout rates that 26% strikeout rates is the highest on the slate Just edges out Bueller's matchup with the Cubs and Garcia is getting strikeouts himself as well In those three starts with less movement He has a 28% strikeout rate with a 3.55 skill interactive era Those games came in tough matchups He faced the blue jays twins and white socks all those teams really good versus righties But Garcia pitched really well He had eight strikeouts across six plus innings and two of those three starts So he was he's been good even when we look at the decreased movement sample Even if you want to look at a larger sample Garcia still grades out really well We're up to 10 starts on him since he joined the rotation for good and he has a 30% strikeout rate in that time That 30% strikeout rate is a smidge higher than what it's been at recently But it's not a massive deviation and still a very good number He's a good pitcher and I think we have enough data on Garcia to say that now He's facing a high strikeout team So I am more than willing to go with him tonight as one of the top options So to me Bueller and Garcia as the two highest salary guys deserve to be there And they will be in the mix for my top two pitchers for tonight with that said I do think our value arm is in the same tier as them that value arm is Joe Ross and Joe Ross Pretty sure I stacked against him earlier this year. It didn't go well But I'm pretty sure I did it and the reason I went there was because he wasn't getting enough strikeouts the thing that Ross was doing the reason that it didn't work to stack against in that one time was that he was generally still doing a good job of suppressing hard contact and That was that was noteworthy for sure But Ross is a good example of why I look at pitch mix and trying to determine Each pitchers most relevant sample because the Joe Ross we are seeing right now is not the same Joe Ross We saw earlier in the year and I think he's in play tonight against the Marlins at seventy four hundred dollars To open up the year Ross is throwing his four-season fastball 21% of the time compared with his his slider, which is at 29% so almost even usage between those two pitches but opponents have a 477 expected Woba against the four-season fastball according to baseball's avante compared to 262 against the slider that is a massive massive cave So you would hope that in going forward Ross would decrease the usage on his four-season fastball and throw more sliders It seems like Joe Ross saw that same data over his past six starts his four-season fastball uses down to 10% His sliders up to 38% so basically Every four-seamer he took away became a slider That is exactly what you want. It's working exactly how you would expect that to work in those six starts Ross has a three point eight. Oh skill interactive era with a 24% strikeout rate and a 5% walk rate He is letting up more fly balls But the hard hit rates is better than average at 37% He got nine strikeouts two starts ago. That is the most Joe Ross has had in a game since 2017 that's a bit hyperbolic because he's missed a lot of time in that time But you know, it's been a while since we saw Joe Ross generate upside via strikeouts and Because of the change in pitch mix being so logical. I don't believe that nine strikeout game was a flu I think it was pretty legit. He's facing the Marlins today They have a 92 WRC plus against righties with a 135 iso not a big power team 25% strikeout rate for them. So a high strikeout team too. It is a great park for pitching. So If I am tearing out the pitchers for tonight, I would say Bueller Garcia and Ross are all in the same tier and If you are playing a single entry lineup, I don't hate the idea of using Ross as that one pitcher So I don't think he's the number one guy for tonight. I don't think that he's quite there but I think he's in the same tier and I am okay Taking the discount loading up on the highest value batters that I want to use and feeling okay about it So Joe Ross in play for today and someone I do like a lot as a result of the alterations He has made to his approach recently So that's where you stand for pitchers for today got someone in the high range got someone in the value range and someone in the mid-range and The reason I'm trying to get to Ross potentially is because I do like a lot of high-salary stacks starting with the asterisms I know you're probably sick of hearing about the asterisms by now. I'm sick of talking about them So I get it. It's hard to find a batter to zero in on each and every day when we've talked about them I believe all four days this week, but The we just got to do it. They're facing Jose Orania tonight the issues We have discussed with Orania recently are not going away and they might actually be getting worse Orania has been upping his change of usage and leaning less on his slatter recently That has not helped with the strikeouts because the strikeout rate is down to 9% in that time and it's actually Led to more walks than strikeouts But it's also heard is bad at ball data like you would hope that if you're decreasing your strikeout rate You get some compensation via better bad at ball data, but that ain't happening the fly ball rate is up to 35% Against Orania. It's still not high But it's much higher than it was for him previously the hard hit rate is 48% He was doing one thing really well before that was suppressing hard contact He is no longer doing that one thing and it's led to big issues. He has an 8.49 era over his past seven starts it's led to Five plus runs three times in those seven outings He led up seven runs each of the past two starts one of those was against a super righty heavy team That's important for Orania because he's always been a guy who's been really good against righties not so great against lefties and the Astros Not I wouldn't dean them as being righty heavy, but some of the guys we want to use our righties So it's reassuring to see that Orania did struggle versus a righty heavy team Meaning we can use the right-handed batters on the Astros who will great out well for tonight So I think once again, I apologize. We do have to stack the Astros for tonight One of the guys likely to bat left-handed against Orania is Abraham Toro. He generally hits six or seventh against righties He's not the highest upside guy, but I like him for tonight hit a hit a dinger last night That's certainly helped. He had a 241 ISO at triple a this year. He has a career 162 ISO against righties and it's high But it's it's high enough. I guess is what I would say. It's not high It's high enough to get by he's not gonna be massive drag in the power department So if you're looking for value like if you want to get in Bueller and stack the Astros It's gonna be tough for sure But I think that Toro makes it a little bit easier and he's someone I am willing to go to for today You might not need him if you're going with Joe Ross You can probably just load up on these studs But I do think that Toro deserves to be in the rotation if you need a value play for tonight Our second stack is going to be the Braves are facing Tony Santian who might be one of the better examples of How much minor league numbers have been inflated this year? So I think the Braves great out well from a stacking perspective Santian made six starts at triple a this year his strikeout right there was 34% so normally when I'm looking at a Minor league strikeout rate. I'll take that number and decrease it a bit So I would expect his strikeout rate in the majors based on a 34% strike area in triple a to be a little bit above average You know 25% or so that is not been the case through two starts Santian has an 8% swinging strike rates his called strikes plus strikes swinging percentage is 24% That is 4 percentage points below the league average Santian was never a big strikeout guy after he got above low A So it kind of seemed like the triple a numbers were a bit out of whack And that does seem to be the case with how things are playing out right now Santian has a 5.23 skill interactive ERA across his two starts. He's letting up a 54% hard hit rates his fly ball rate is 46% all those numbers are very stackable We did see that Santian let up three runs on two home runs in three innings his last time out Now he's facing the Braves. It's not Atlanta But it isn't since he and since he is a Homer prone place super tough matchup tough park And I do want to stack the Braves here for sure as being one of the top options on tonight I will say that if Ronald Acuna junior cannot play for today, they do get downgraded I would not cross them off But it would push them down likely to at least third in terms of stacking for today If we get Acuna back in there tonight, they'll rank second for me for sure and one guy who I Would want to include in those stacks is Ozzy Albee's and I think that he goes a bit overlooked on this team And I understand it because like I've filled out Braves stacked before I get how this works You want Acuna you want Freeman the obvious top two guys But then you like Riley Swanson and a month day for value Albee's is right in the middle doesn't really fit neatly into either bucket, but he's really freaking good He has a 224 ISO against righties this year. He has six stolen bases against righties He has just an 18% strikeout rates. So low strikeout rate power two sources of upside I Think I need to do a better job of prioritizing Ozzy Albee's when I stack this team more often for tonight If I use Jill Ross, that means I could still use Albee's with Freeman and Acuna again assuming Acuna plays but Even outside of those situations if it means passing up, you know, Freddie Freeman every now and then kind of okay with it So Ozzy Albee's a guy I am going to try to be better about prioritizing given how well he's playing and given how awkwardly Awkwardly fits in with the puzzle pieces in terms of stacking this team Now measure before that the wind is blowing in in Buffalo and that does matter wind is important But I am still interested in stacking both sides of this game I prefer the Jays, so we'll talk about them here But then we want the through the Orioles in things to watch the Jays are facing Dean Kramer Kramer Has better peripherals than you would think with the 6.2. Oh era But they are very much still peripherals we can stack against he has a 4.77 skill interactive era with a 21% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate If you look at his batted ball data both his hard hit rate allowed and his fly ball rate allowed are above 44% That is an easy stacking profile, though. We don't don't want overthink like sure His yell right at the end of the year will probably be lower than 6.2. Oh, but it's probably not going to be all that good So I think that that's why we want to go here initially a key part for the Jays though is you want to make sure that the opposing pitcher is not overpowering versus righties because most the guys we want to use here are righties and That's very much true for Kramer. He has a strikeout rate of 17% versus righties versus 26% Against lefties lefties do get more fly balls in hard contact. So I'm not saying cross-off cabin bigio But he's still on the menu But I do think that it's reassuring that he's not great versus righties Especially given the way this blue Jays lineup breaks out such to me the Jays are a team We want to be in on for today The Jays did get George Springer back two nights ago He played five games in the minors before coming back up on on a rehab stint Didn't show a ton of power. He had just one extra base hits It seemed like he was seeing the ball fine based on his strikeout rate, but he wasn't hitting for power Springer hasn't necessarily been like slapping the ball around in the big leagues so far across two games So a little bit concerning to be very clear I'm going to use George Springer tonight But I think that if we're ranking Priorities on this blue Jays team and exercise we go through a lot during the Q&A shows in the afternoon He's going to be lower on my list. So Vladimir Gerard, Jr. Obviously we won Boba Shett's up there Marcus Semi and all those guys rank above Springer I'm very down for Kevin Vigio and then it's kind of decided between Springer, Randall Gritchick, Palescar Hernandez for the next man up I think that Springer isn't that tier and not in the Semi and Bechet Vlad tier for right now So again, I will use him because I want to stack this team But he'll be lower on my list than he otherwise would be Given the name value and I mentioned before that I would downgrade the braze if Acunya can't play the Jays are the team I push above them So if we get Acunya braze a second if we don't get Acunya braze a third with the Jays moving up to second in Terms of stacking let's finish up here things to watch I mentioned before that I am down to stack both sides of that game in Buffalo the Orioles are facing Anthony Kay He has had rough results in both triple A and the majors. He is getting strikeouts But the Orioles sneakly do a really good job of avoiding those against lefties So Cedric Mullins training at Cini Ryan Mountcastle Austin Hayes all those guys very much in play Mullins specifically is much lower salary than he should be at $3,000. His upside is stupid So I love Cedric Mullins. I think from a one-off perspective. You don't get a lot better than that But also like you can stack this team too So try to get some Orioles in your line-up for today whether it's with the Jays or not I'm also willing to give the Dodgers a run here raising Zach Davies his ERA still under five this year But his expected ERA is over six his skill interactive ERA is five point six three He's getting some ground balls, but he's also allowing a 42 percent hard hit rate So it's not like he's been great with that at ball suppression It could just be that he's had some balls break in his favor Dodgers almost back to full-strength now with Cody Bellinger Max Muncie back which upgrades the entire team. So I would rank the Dodgers Fourth or fifth for stacking. It's between them and the Orioles probably would be the Dodgers number four Orioles five But I think both are pretty solid options for today. Finally. I'm normally very down to stack against Carlos Martinez I just don't think I can do so for today. He's facing the Pirates and I know with Bueller We want to find some value, but I'd try to find it elsewhere The Orioles to be a much better value play for stacking and it's not about like the Pirates overall issues I will stack bad teams Happily happily happily happily, but the problem is like I want to stack a team I need to find four guys. I want to use and like I don't think I can find four guys here There's only one guy who I expect to be in the line-up for today Who hasn't I so higher than 190 against righties this year is Brian Reynolds at 212. So Reynolds is fine I don't mind if you want to get there for one offs, but like the idea of using four Pirates to me is Overwhelming and upsetting so I'm not gonna get there the Orioles a much better value stack for today would much prefer them So I know it's a good matchup and I know that like you might be tempted to stack against Martinez Personally, I'm not gonna get there because the Pirates are just too too scary for me If that is all that we have here for today on the solo shop But again, we are back with a supersized episode of the Q&A today DFS at 4 p.m. With me and then Aaron Dolan swinging by with betting at 4 30 Make sure you're subscribed to the fan duel YouTube twitch Facebook or Twitter page to get notifications as we go live 4 p.m. For me 4 30 for betting with Aaron swing by there ask your questions and make sure you're subscribed But also if you're watching YouTube hit the like button there also a reminder to make sure you subscribe to the number flyer daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcasts. We have UFC and NASCAR coming up for tomorrow Austin swims on NASA or on USC I've got NASCAR Should be pretty fun weekend with two NASCAR races Those will both be up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed tomorrow for Fantasy Friday So check that out on Apple podcasts Spotify Stitcher Google podcasts wherever you get your podcasts You can find us if you have any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I. M. S. A. M. N. E. S. You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you for today We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network