 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm as we are taking a look at betting NBA Total today with Carl Sack taking a break with college football in a bit of a downside to talk some NBA My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joint here As always by Ed Fang you can find his work over at thepowerank.com and on Twitter at the powerank Ed We are talking NBA today. How you doing? That's right. I'm doing great. I love a little basketball action to You know give a little variety to the show and our listeners Yeah, and I think that that's it's nice to get to get back into that group You know we talked a little bit of college basketball a couple weeks ago Which was good and I think that as we get out of college football season We're still gonna talk college football next week. We'll talk some bowls. We'll talk about the semifinals But it'll be nice to have a little bit more flexibility. We could talk about things beyond that And so we'll talk about with Carl But like this is if you want to do really well Betting NBA or college basketball do it when the books are focused on football I think that now is still that time less than it was earlier, but it's it's an advantageous time to be in these markets Yeah, absolutely. And and yeah, no, go ahead. Oh I was gonna say yeah, I mean there I feel like there's a lot of interest in in basketball now At least I've seen that in just traffic on my site Because I think people like they want if they're into basketball like they're they're gonna be excited about the start of the season And you get that preseason bump, right? Yeah, well plus it's helpful too for a you know a system like yours Where you can better account for all season changes than like I can if I'm not using like Advanced numbers to account for those things I think that that's right It's also that more advantage is forward like the power rank and for a number fire to have those things accounted for because like me You know looking at things without data It's hard to know what the impact of Kauai Leonard and Paul George is going to be without looking at you know data Which is why things that the power rank and number fire helpful in those arenas. Yeah, absolutely So we're gonna bring on Carl sack Carl was a or is the lead consultant for NBA wise guys Which is over at sixth sense sports calm to search for go to sixth sense sports calm for that the NBA service There is led by Carl He was also the lead handicapper at sports insights for seven years before before joining Six sense sports had a fifty four point six percent win rate over there before going to sixth sense sports we're talking to him about the process of betting NBA totals and Some lesser known factors he accounts for when dabbling in that market how he accounts for player injuries and the impact Of those some trends. He's noticed some guys. He's been betting, you know teens. He's betting Higher totals, you know or betting under the total for teams this season It's kind of picking Carl's brain about totals and and at least in the NFL. I've always Felt more comfortable betting totals. I'm gonna talk about a totally in covering the future today What about you? Are you a more of a side's guy or a totals guy from a personal perspective from a betting perspective? Yeah, I mean, I'm a guy who likes to go with what I think the better numbers are so and that changes I think You know, I put a lot of work in my college football sides And I feel more comfortable with that now than my college football totals. I feel like the markets have gotten better. I Need to quantify that so I'll let you know about that in a couple weeks But we have my totals model doesn't seem as good anymore. So I will switch over to college football sides I've never liked my NFL totals model. So I haven't talked about those much. That's something I plan to work on in the off-season So and I just want to mention, you know that you talked about how Carl was over at sports insights and it's 54% That sample size is huge because he was over there. I think it's a big big number of games so just definitely want to mention that I've had a chance to the new Carl for a bunch of years and Yeah, you always, you know when you're evaluating people You always want to look at the size of of their track record, right? Exactly. So we're gonna talk about Carl and his strength is clearly betting totals like for me It's like there's a lot of overlap between totals and daily fantasy, which is where a lot of my other work is so Knowing your strength is a big thing and Carl. I think is a guy who definitely has that down So we're gonna talk to Carl in just a little bit We'll have an NFL podcast coming up on Thursday this week to make sure you get that in every episode of covering the spread Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast whether it be Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio Wherever you can name you can probably find us there and while you're there Please leave a rating and review as well because let's do help us out quite a bit And thank you to those of you who have done so already before bringing Carl Sack though Want to go back to last week's college football episode. We talked about championship week with Bob Stoll breaking down His favorite bets there We're gonna go back through that and we'll go through go to Carl and talk about NBA totals Covering the past All right last week on the college football version of covering the spread We had Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob sports on to preview championship week and break down some of those big games Bob had Utah minus six and a half and the under on 49 and a half against Oregon and the total actually closed at 46 so some pretty good closing line value for Bob there But unfortunately that didn't that didn't matter I guess because the game did go over Oregon won that game and Ed I have been skeptical of Justin Herbert. I feel like you have to and yeah Herbert wasn't necessarily the reason that they won that game. I wouldn't say I think the defense played a major role But a really impressive game overall by Oregon there Yeah, for sure, and I feel like Utah, you know, they played their bad game. They've been so impressive up until that point They got gashed by a couple big plays and and we know if by work from Bill Connolly that those tend to be random Not not to not give Oregon credit for that But definitely not Utah's game and that'll be interesting to see how that projects into value on bowl games, right? Exactly, I think as it pertains to Herbert, I'm still skeptical obviously He didn't do a ton in that game and you look at his numbers. It's a lot of short passes Which I think is at least a minor red flag But an impressive win by Oregon regardless, but that defense specifically balled out. They were good Yeah, for sure I think Herbert had a couple long passes, but they were kind of meltdowns by the the Utah secondary right as well It's interesting like What I took away from this weekend. I didn't realize how good athlete Joe Burrow was. Yeah So I think he was all stayed in basket I think that's the thing they always cite like, you know Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard Joe Burrow was like a a great basketball player and I think that's That's really interesting because George's got some athletes on that defense. Yeah, he made them look dumb A couple plays and in particularly is I mean the kid's gonna win the Heisman, right? I don't know what the odds are but like I think he's like minus five thousand in the field is like Yeah, it's done. It's over. Um, I think you saw his Heisman moment where he made a guy miss twice and You know, I've seen a bunch of LSU games this year and it really didn't jump out to me until this game Just how athletic he is and you put that needed to the accuracy Right He hasn't needed to be that athletic because the offensive line has given him a lot early good protection But I think seeing that he can do that when he needs to is also really important and he did that So we'll talk about that game more in just a second with Bob He won at Wisconsin plus 16 and a half against Ohio State along with the under on 56 and a half points Well, Wisconsin like first half was ridiculous. I mean both those did work out, you know, Wisconsin did cover They covered by three and a half points the under hit by one and a half points You mentioned that your numbers liked Ohio State too, and I Understand the Wisconsin. Yeah, it's like Wisconsin. I understand not wanting to bet them But again, it's kind of like that Patriots game we talked before where it's kind of reassuring that at least your numbers Right, even if you didn't want to bet it. Yeah I'm not betting Wisconsin. Yeah, and I was actually pretty happy I did because Ohio State smashed them in the second half I mean it was kind of pure domination and obviously when you look at the whole game It was it was a much more even game, especially with what Wisconsin was able to do with some of the big plays But I've been really impressed with what Ohio State's been able to do in the second half against Michigan, Wisconsin Those are very good football teams and they they have simply dominated Large parts of the second half. I know Wisconsin had a couple plays at the end Ohio State could easily covered in that game, too They ended up kicking a field goal late instead of going in for a touchdown as well So I mean grand scheme of things pretty happy. Yeah lit off the game, and I think that's seeing Them do this against these good defenses is impactful as they prepare to face Clemson Which will be the biggest probably the biggest test. They've had all year, but I think that's it They've passed some pretty serious tests there and kudos to Bob on nailing both parts of that one He also mentioned either leaned Oklahoma minus eight. He was I think hesitant to go there And you know, they justified that because he was talking about how Oklahoma's underperformed their advanced numbers like all year long, right? and like even the Charlie Brewer out like they still went to overtime and like that was a wild game So Oklahoma, I mean how much were they up late in the set? Were they up 10? Late in the second half Island and I don't even know and Baylor benches there or maybe they're up a touchdown Yeah, the other benches there second-string quarterback and brings in third string, which you assume is a scrub Yeah, and he like breaks off two huge plays that completely changed the character of that game Yeah, I feel like you had to be feeling pretty good Like I would have felt much better at you know on that Oklahoma game than I ever did Second half of that was constant game. That's true. Yeah So it just I mean the randomness of big plays and the breakdown in the Oakland It was it was it was an interesting second half my Oklahoma plus 1,100 to win the national championship technically still alive There's still only 10 to 1 despite making the for despite making the playoff. So, right? I'm gonna cling to that one as long as we've got it. I've got it for 18 more days I will cherish it in that time. I don't deserve it, but I'll take it You mentioned Georgia Ellis you over 54 and a half and the total went up after we discussed that one It closed at 57 points and Georgia got there and done or Ellis you got there and done Georgia didn't and I was Disappointed because I mean they did lose the receiver during that game but like I thought Georgia's offense had the capability of scoring points when necessary and They just had nothing on Saturday for whatever reason. It was yeah I was disappointing. They came out and they they were pretty aggressive and their receivers couldn't make plays and yeah Jake's hands on like consecutive plays downfield and they dropped both and I was just angry out of my mind Yeah, there's a couple miss field goals on both sides. So I feel pretty good about that bet. I don't regret that at all But it's interesting to think big term about big term long term about Georgia You know cuz coming into the season you have from back and I feel like from's been pretty good And you assume with the way Georgia recruits that they're gonna plug and play with whatever receivers that they have and I just don't think that worked out for them and it's kind of a cautionary tale when you're looking at college football teams in the preseason, you know replacing NFL level talent on a team like Georgia and and Just not be not being able to do that despite how well you recruit right and that was one of the reasons I was skeptical of Ohio State, but it can work the other direction Seeing teams struggle to replace NFL talent. They lost like all their past catchers So that would definitely have been a red flag for Georgia My my like hope as someone who thinks that Jake from has talent is that they LSU this thing Go full burrow like let's run a modern NF a modern offense and see what from can do then and if he fails to you Know open things up and go downfield then then I'll abandon my take that he is actually a good quarterback But I still want to see him Running something where they do throw more downfield with receivers who can catch I think that'd be great. But well, I mean this draft stock was reasonably high at the beginning of the year. It was yeah, it's probably not I don't know. I mean eyes I read far too many mock drafts in December way more than I should he's that's good. That's information Yeah, he's generally like a second rounder right now. I would not be shocked if he goes back I think that if the prognosis for Tua had been worse, he may have declared and he still may still declare But I think that with two has held looking Better than expected or at least then initially feared I wouldn't be shocked if he comes back And I would not blame him if he were to come back either usually I think the guy should always go pro because like too much weird stuff can happen But for from I wouldn't be Against him coming back final one here I had Memphis minus nine and a half against Cincinnati and they did win the game But they needed a late touchdown to get there they didn't cover and they never really were in position to do So either like Cincinnati. I think like watching that game. I thought they outplayed Memphis. So Yeah, I don't know I thought it was it was a tight game and it could have gone It was a coin flip about who won but Cincinnati outplayed Memphis and I think I underestimated That team in general in that game. Well, I think Memphis is defense out of bad game You know, I'm not excited about what Cincinnati does on the offensive side of the ball And they got it done that day. We had talked about, you know, I think my numbers like Memphis is defense Yeah, so, you know, it's gonna happen. Yeah, it does been Ritter, you know played well coming back So kudos to him for that, but no dice there. We'll talk about NBA totals in just a second We're gonna talk more college football later this year, too We'll get some bowl previews in the semi-final preview But for today, we're gonna talk some NBA totals with Carl Sack again He was or is he lead consultants for NBA wise guys at sixth sense sports find his work at sixth sense sports Com for bring on Carl, though Want to remind you that if you want to get in on the action check out the Fandall sportsbook inflate place your first bed today If you lose Fandall will give you a reach of up to $500 and psych credit visit sportsbook. Fandall com for more details terms and conditions Apply must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania West Virginia or Indiana gambling problem call 1-800 Gambler let's bring on Carl Sack now once again find his work at sixth sense sports calm We're gonna break down his process for betting NBA totals and where he has seen different movement within this year Let's talk some NBA you're uncovering the spread Covering the present Let's bring Carl Sack here into covering the spread talking about NBA totals Carl Been a pretty fun NBA season so far. It seems like so. How are you doing today? I'm doing well. How are you? Thank you I'm doing great appreciated and definitely tough for me as an NFL person You know football person to keep up with the with the NBA this time of year because there's so much going on But it seems like it's been a fun year so far for you specifically. How has NBA been going from a betting perspective? Well to be completely honest, it's actually been a slow start. I feel like I've had a pretty good feel on the market on what's going on But the the variance has has been there In not an optimal way, so it's been a slow start Yeah variance is never fun, especially in these small samples, you know, and we're still you know only about a quarter the way through this season So it's it's definitely a lot of time for that variance to break back in your favor Hopefully the one thing we want to have you on here to talk about today Carl is totals because you know We talk a lot about sides here specifically on the NFL side But totals, you know, they're just something that we tend to overlook here so I want to spend a full episode talking with you about totals in the NBA and You essentially specialize in betting totals. So from your process perspective What do you think gives you specifically an edge in betting totals versus the other markets you could enter? Well, yeah, I do probably bet about 75 percent totals I think that the totals market is weaker in general and you I think most pros would agree that that's the case and there's a reason why the limits At most sports books and in the market are lower for totals than sides Because I think that they're weaker As far as the NBA in particular I Would say there's a few reasons but to touch on a couple. I mean I did the I capped NFL for three years and Hit 55% and it was great But you know one of the downsides to the NFL is that there's only about 300 games a year less than 300 games a year Whereas with the NBA you get I don't I think it's like 1300 So there's a lot more opportunities and that makes the NBA appealing to me I Also did college basketball for three years and again had success there But part of the issue with that especially with totals is that the limits are so low You know any book you hit with a max bet you're they're gonna move the line If it's a small book, you know, you're gonna have trouble getting down what you want If it's a larger book, then you're gonna end up, you know, like pinnacle or Chris you're gonna end up moving the whole market and that's you know for someone like myself that runs a Service you want to be able to ideally get down with a few off screens and not Influence the line so that you're able to also give it out to customers and make sure that they can You know get part of that edge as well Yeah, absolutely So so call really excited to have you on the show wanted to actually pick your brain about your problem You know long long time Obviously pace is gonna be something that you think about in terms of totals But what are other metrics that you look for and in particular? I'm thinking about stuff like, you know, like rate at which teams foul at the end of games and push up the number of possessions Tell us about that Well, that's a that's an interesting one in terms of which teams are gonna be more Likely to hack when they're down eight with 30. It's funny. You see that on a on a Weekly basis, I'll see some team that I'm like, why are you fouling down eight with, you know, seven seconds left and some other teams are You know fouling with a minute to go when they're You know down 11 or 12 and some teams don't That's I that's an interesting variable And I think it kind of comes to fruition when you look at When you just kind of isolate how teams do in the last minute I'll need to go through the box scores and look at the play-by-play for the last minute and see as there been You know, you'll get some games where there's 20 points in the last minute because of a foul fast And so yeah, it does help in my opinion to kind of look at games where you're thinking, okay this could end up very well end up being a you know four to a Nine-point game in the last minute and there's an increased chance of a foul fast Conversely you get, you know games where the spreads are double digits and it's it's you're less likely to see that type of thing You know, I'll look at I'll also look at injuries. I'll look at injuries and lineup changes I think have outside of like pace that could be a certainly another indicator for me trying to figure out where What an appropriate total might be I Do some work looking at referees I Look for coaching quotes, you know, I mean I think it was I Think it was last week when fizz Dale who is no longer the next coach now But who he was talking he had a actually had a couple days off to do a practice And he Specifically in the practice they were running. Okay, let's shoot quicker in the shot clock. Let's get down Let's focus on tempo. And so when you can get quotes like that, you tend to expect Alright, this might be a little bit of a high-scoring game, but I would say For me, I think the most significant impact on totals once you kind of get through the first 20 games Where you know some offseason changes are no longer a surprise I think at that point you start looking at injuries and lineup changes as the major variables And I can go into some examples if you'd like Yeah, I mean have there been ones this year specifically that have stood out to you is like guys whose roles have increased that have you know Led to those changes anything specifically you've noticed in that department for 2019 Specifically thinking of roles that have changed Off the top of my head. No, it's more so it's been injuries. It's been You know, for example Three I think it was three games ago. Isaiah Thomas comes up with a I think it's a calf strain and He's the kind of player that makes a massive difference when it comes to totals, you know, he's all offense no defense and You know, I think Since I had the numbers in front of me just a minute ago. It was like their defensive rating is is 11 points worse When he's on the court their offensive rating is I think a couple points better when he's on the court And they play a couple possessions per 48 faster when he's on the court So if you just kind of do the math with that simple math, it's like it's not a It's not an insignificant thing and then you throw in on top of it Jordan McCrae is out for them He's another guard that has the ability to shoot the ball now they're running out ish Smith for more minutes now He's a decent shooter But he's a better defender than Smith That's for sure any place slower and then now they're having to throw out Chris Tioza the rookie In the field on the on the season and play slow and so it's it's injuries like that And I from what I saw yesterday, he's gonna be out for another week So that's the kind of injury that I'm but that that can have a really big impact. We've seen with the total they're playing today That total open 234 and now it's about 228 and a half across the board five and a half points And the prior games when he was out you see the same thing like it's dropping The market hasn't caught up or at least the opening market hasn't caught up to that stuff Interesting I want to go back to one thing you mentioned and that was the spread and the way that can influence the way the teams play at the end of a game and You were talking about how a tight spread may lead to more fouling at the end a widespread may lead to teams Essentially giving up packing it in how much does the spread influence the way you view a total if at all Do the books do a good enough job of accounting for that or are you do you tend to bet different totals based on the spread? I would say it does impact it a little and I would say that I do not believe that the odds makers based on the Research that I've done Quantifying the historical results of games versus, you know games Totals results based on certain spread ranges It is not factored in yet. I don't believe not fully So I do think that there is a little bit of that I look at a lot of different things and that's one of many and and it does have a little bit of weight But certainly as we kind of touched on before like if you've got a high spread, there's a less likely chance of overtime There's a less likely chance of a foul fest. You probably have some more inefficient backups that are in and then you know When it comes to garbage time And then similarly I want to know in garbage time the nature of a team and their second and third units You know, for example a team like Atlanta, you know, Trey young is pretty much the offense on that team And he's also Below average defender So if you get him out of the game in the last five minutes or two minutes or whatever because it's a fact It's a you know garbage time at that point Well, you can expect a lower scoring game in that garbage time Whereas a team like say Milwaukee that's deep and has shooters off the bench. You may not get that kind of result Fascinating so Carl with all betting you, you know timing is very important NFL is a daily Market where you're getting lines the night before Do you have any advice about timing of your bets when you find the most value? Whether you maybe try to look late Try to fade the market or what is your approach in terms of that? I Would say it's a mixture of I would say most Wagers that I make are either first thing in the morning within the first couple of hours once limits are raised and most books Have lines posted it can get a little tricky if a team's on a back-to-back because they might be unlined But I would say usually between about 9 and 11 a.m. Eastern time Is when I'll start firing on some of those games And then there's kind of a lull throughout the day and you at that point then you're kind of waiting Typically for the last hour or two before tip-off when you start getting injury clarifications Or any kind of lineup changes announcements on that kind of stuff So for the most part I would say it's typically first thing in the morning and right before tip-off Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense And you mentioned that there's a lot been a lot of movement too And I think that getting in their early can help account for that now One of the reasons that there is movement as you mentioned with Isaiah Thomas is that we've got a lot of players Potentially sitting and that it will have a big impact What information do you use in order to get a read on how something like that will impact the total for the night? Are you looking at on-off splits or what's the biggest source for you and try to identify the impact various injuries? It's interesting that you asked that So funny enough. So it's a few different things. I look at but interestingly enough definitely on-off splits and there was a advanced model that Ed actually helped you help build Years back that we that I still use That helps kind of factor in You know what the different combinations of players as opposed to just a simple like okay One player on one player offer just looking at the starting lineup So the short answer is definitely on-off splits. I try to it adjust them And not just take them blindly adjust them for strength of schedule that kind of stuff Certainly looking at pace differentials as well And it'll be from the current season. It'll you know in a season like this where we're still kind of early in the season There might I might go back and look at last season depending on how much how many minutes some of these players have and then also some of it is just Just knowing them knowing them the player historically, you know, like I think maybe a good example would be Carmelo Anthony You know the last five teams he's been on or whatever like he's the team's always been better without him His defense has not been good. His offense has been okay But you know now and now he's on Portland and in the first 10 games. He's done. All right Um Statistically, but I'm more apt to say, okay, that's a small sample size I know what Carmelo Anthony is Historically and I'm gonna put a little bit more weight on my impression of what he is Then the 10 games or so that he's played in this year and that's certainly so so that's part of it But then I think something also that's important that That sometimes goes overlooked is Okay. Yes How does a you know, what's the value of a certain player? But more importantly, what's the value? You know What's the value of the next player up and the next player up, you know, because Carmelo comes in and He's taking like Portland's really a very thin team Zach Collins went down They in so he's out. He was a starter. They lost They lost Harkless and Aminu in the offseason They're starting a bunch of guys that are either unproven or very young and so for him coming in and taking one of those those player spots Is he a significant downgrade from them? Probably not But I also I'm not so sure I really consider him an upgrade either Just knowing knowing how he you know does his thing so so the the short answer to your question is I do look at on-off I try to look at some advanced metrics I'll look at current season sometimes past season and sometimes just you know That's kind of an eye test and knowing these knowing certain players knowing what their strengths and weaknesses are Just from you know, watching the game and being around it long enough Excellent Carl you you mentioned all your numbers, which was fascinating How much basketball do you watch in order to understand a guy like Carmelo Anthony? The You know basketball is a tough Honestly on average probably like two games a day It's hard, you know, it's it's hard to watch all that even if you can record everything and fast forward through the down times and the half times and commercials and It does help with the eye test in my opinion. I think another thing that helps with watching games is Just knowing especially from a referee perspective, you know It is is a ref just getting foul happy and did we just see ten extra points in this game because there were five fouls That were silly and shouldn't have been called Those are things that were harder to get from the box score Another thing that I think is undervalued in today's game in today's handy market, I should say is How open if I watch a game and I see Milwaukee's getting open threes all day long, they're just missing them I Know they're getting the shot they want and those are gonna fall eventually and I Shouldn't say that you can only get that from watching the game because the new the new player tracking data that they've had for the last few years It's out there. It's quantifiable and I do look at that as well But it's nice to see it Visually too Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely now. Are you betting totals in game as well? And if you are betting in game totals, you know while you're watching a game or whatever Are there certain things you lean on to give you a hints about which way to go there? Is it watching the referees? Is it watching, uh, you know, the how tight the game is, you know What what do you lean on with betting games in betting totals in game? um, well I should preface by saying I don't do a ton of in-game betting. Yeah I do there's a few instances that I'll target number one And the most obvious I think is typically an injury that happens in the middle of the game I don't think that that's factored in very well into either a live line or a second half line So that's certainly an opportunity I'll look out for another instance might be You know, say I really like the under in a game and I think these two teams match up well defensively and First quarter the two teams come out and they're just knocking down shots, especially contested shots stuff like that all think up I'll be looking to in live um Bet my under again at a higher number knowing that What's going on? Is it sustainable and not only that but you come into halftime um in all likelihood Both coaches, you know if these two teams are shooting lights out first half both coaches aren't going to come in saying Listen, we got to do more to score. They're going to be saying. Hey guys play some defense focus on defense, please, you know um, so I'd say those are probably the most uh obvious things that I Obvious situations where I will bet something in game Excellent Alrighty, we appreciate you swinging by here carl. That's all the questions we have for today I really appreciate you stopping by chopping up some mba and talking your process for betting totals Really appreciate all the wisdom. It's definitely been interesting for me to hear it. I appreciate it and hopefully you can talk to you again soon I appreciate you guys having me on um, I could talk mba all day So, uh, you guys let me know whenever you want to chat. I will happily do well We'll be doing that again in the future. So good luck with your mba betting until that Thanks so much. Have a great day guys. You too. Thank you Covering the future All right, one final big thank you to carl sack again find his work over at the nba wise guys at six cents sports.com and ed Fun to get a refresher on mba because like I know you're heavily focused on college football and nfl this year I am too and like we talked about how this is a profitable time to be there But like I I can't I can't look at everything at once so it's good to talk to carl and get kind of a sense on some things He's seen so far this year There are not enough hours in the day and and and actually kind of you know Like I know way more from a playing perspective about basketball than I ever will about football just because I played and You know businesses obviously taking me in the direction of football and no regrets at all because I love the sport um, but Uh, yeah, I wish I had more time for basketball. I mean even college basketball, which is actually part of my job right, um, I wish I had more time for that been, uh Engaging on this michigan team pretty heavily, which has been fun I've caught a couple other games But uh, it's still I mean it's hard to really do all that I want to do there At this point of the year. Yeah, absolutely. I'm like you kind of have to know Where you want to go you can't we can't bet on everything So it's good to talk to guys like carl who know the nba and are paying that close attention and Kind of lean on them this time of year when we can't do as much work there Ourselves Ed and I always preach searching for the best value in betting on games Look no further than the new odds comparison our engineers have developed over at number fire dot com It's called odds fire It is the premier odds comparison experience Across major bookmakers in the regulated u.s. Market compare odds quickly identify the best value And even examine first party fan dual data all in one place Never settle always get the best odds check out the experience for free now on number fire or at odds fire dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Ed for your cover in the future this week you want to talk to some college football and we've got bowls coming up and for bowl season Strength of schedule is obviously very important because these teams a lot of them have faced wildly different teams How does that relate to you when it comes to betting bowls? So I was looking down my bowl predictions and you know, this is miami at louisiana tech game jumped out at me immediately in terms of the prediction And strength of schedule is important Strength of schedule is something that I trust myself to do really well That's kind of how I got into this business developing some of my own methods to do that I also use methods that have been around forever as well I think the mixture is a good thing, but So anyways, you know, it's a place where I would tend to trust my numbers And and I do in this case, you know, miami is is six and six that doesn't look particularly good They're three and five in in one score games this year So they've been in every game like the only loss in which was not a one score game was a 10 point loss to duke In the season finale And when you look at data from this season, I've talked about this before but I you know, I put together, you know points yards for play and success rate miami's 31st In the country, okay, and that's that's the second best in the acc Which probably says more about the acc than it does about miami But, you know, miami is probably a lot better Miami is definitely better than the six and six record that they have They're actually best when you look at success rate. So that's something that's pretty good projecting forward for miami Then on the other hand, you have louisiana tech They're nine and three that's obviously a great record But they play in conference usa which has been near the bottom in terms of conferences um In in college football in the bowl subdivision So when you look at the same data from this year points yards for play success rate They only have one team that's above fbs average as florid atlantic Western kentucky is decent. They're near fbs average And then those are pretty significant drop off to the next couple of teams In louisiana tech is in that group. They're 90th so This is one where I really trust my numbers. Um the number say miami by about more than 15 I'm not ready to make a bet on this game necessarily yet. The the spread is seven Just need to look into some other things with miami and their quarterback situation and and some injuries that they have Their top running back is has been out the last couple weeks But this is one where I tend to trust my numbers And then on the flip side, you know, something where I'm actually really not trusting my numbers This is oklahoma lsu game It has lsu by six and a half points But you you really have to hate what you see with this this oklahoma offense They've turned from this explosive mostly passing offense When they had the easier part of their schedule to an offense that's running jaylin hurts more than 20 times a game They're not explosive. They haven't been explosive and not necessarily against the best defenses in the country as well Ohio state hasn't You know lsu's Defense hasn't been great But they're definitely in the category of defenses that I think is going to have a good chance of stopping And oklahoma and when you have a offensive wizard like link and riley and he's choosing to run his quarterback I think that tells you something about what he believes His quarterback's passing ability is It's kind of interesting too because you know, I know they have a hot shot quarterback as his backup too They've decided to stick with hurts So the market's at 11 Something I I tend to trust that more Then what my number in this case is putting out for the reasons that I mentioned And I think that having that knowledge of how your model works and where your model is strong and where it may not be Strong is super valuable and having that, you know that sample to know that Is good the miami game as of right now Is miami minus six and a half and I think the the difficulty here Is not everybody who's sitting out the bowls has necessarily announced that yet And that can make stuff like this pretty tough Is that why you said you were hesitant to dive into the market there with the miami game? I mean, that's part of it. Yeah, I don't know exactly what nfl prospects miami has I'm probably a little more concerned about the the quarterback situation and who's playing I guess I I guess i'm in meeting here that I haven't really followed miami as much that likes you this year So just just some homework I need to do that was okay numbers I mean you you always find this game where you have kind of a big conference team against A conference usa team that that has a much better record and Those are games in which I trust my numbers Right because they're such a split and I think that that it does make a lot of sense to do that then so If you have a good read on the quarterback situation, you can get miami at minus six and a half right now Over at fan dual sports book now because we don't have a college football show this week I want to focus on the nfl both today and on thursday I'll give another one on thursday But the one I want to focus on here is I want the under on titans versus texans with the total of 50 points And I talked about the titans at the end of this ad so If you want to pull up numbers there, they're a very interesting team But the total right now for this game is the highest of the week at 50 points And I think the reason I want the under here is largely because both these teams are pretty decently run heavy The texans are at league average at 54 for their pass rates on early downs in the first half That's according to sharp football stats, which is about league average But titans are at 51 percent which ranks 24th if you look at their full season numbers But they've been obviously as you can see a very different team with ryan tannahill at quarterback So we can't look at full season stats with tennessee We have to look at what they've done since ryan tannahill behaved quarterback You may think that their run rate may be lower with tannahill because it's been far more efficient the Marcus mariota It's actually lower like their pass rate is lower with ryan tannahill at quarterback Than it was with Marcus mariota specifically on early downs in the first half So it's not because they're winning they're just run heavier for whatever reason it may be their pass rate is just 50 On early downs in the first half with ryan tannahill at quarterback So they're still running the ball a ton, which is not a bad thing. I'm not saying not criticizing them because derrick henry I am yeah You can that's fair derrick henry is a beast. I get it I understand it But it does keep their pace down I think that's the key reason why i'm looking at the total here because they are still 27th in situation neutral pace According to football outsiders titans games have consistently been going over recently Because of how efficient their offense has been but I think that when you put this number at 50 it basically means You are assuming that they maintain freakish efficiency levels both as a passing offense and as a rushing offense and I'm skeptical that that happens. I respect ryan tannahill what he has done And I think that it is very noteworthy, but this is an outdoor game It's in december any trickiness with weather could uh lead to this number going lower as the week goes long As of right now winds are projected at seven miles per hour So nothing to worry about there, but that could always change as the week goes long So we're recording tuesday. I'm gonna take advantage of that and talk about this total here I want the under on 50. I feel like a number fire their total is 44 and a half Like I I don't I don't know if that's fully accounting for tannahill But like if I can get under 50 i'm gonna take it So I want the under on 50 here But I want your thoughts on the titans because I was very very very very very very very wrong ryan tannahill when he became the starter here But it's still a small sample. So what's your read on the titans right now? Yeah, I mean it's tough. I mean, I think you know my number on the total in this game is 48 Seems a little you know, like I mean obviously there's there's a lot of mariota's data in there as well. Um, so But it does suggest the under I think it's yeah, I don't know. I don't have a great read on this this tennessee team I'd ever have in my entire life. I'm surprised that you've you even mentioned this team After you know with how much you like mariota. So yeah, I mentioned them a lot on slack Usually it's me being mad about tannahill making like another disgusting throw and I'm just like, why does he keep doing this? It's like the the breaking bad moment where Jesse is just screaming. He can't keep getting away with this. That is me with ryan tannahill But it keeps happening. Um, and like I'm not saying they're gonna lose. I'm not saying Texans plus three But I do want the under here because they're both crazy run heavy or the titans are are so very run heavy But like They're hard team to get a read on but I think I want the under here. Yeah Yeah, seems reasonable me We'll talk more NFL coming up on thursday this week So make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast can be spotify apple podcast stitcher You can find us there and while you're there, please leave a rating and review as well Ed you were talking about the bowls. Well, we know your email newsletter anything special for bowl season over at the power ink Yeah, I'll have a bowl report out Probably about tomorrow. Uh, and the full version has a lot of notes on injuries and situations and match ups But yeah, bowl season report is basically the only time of year where you can get my best predictions Uh, without signing up as a member for at the power ink. So yeah, that's exciting And uh, I will probably talk a lot about that over the next three shows I guess Awesome. We're looking forward to that. Of course, we'll talk more college football next week as well right here And get that and you can get ed's numbers or at the power ink dot com and you can follow ed on twitter At the power ink. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n m e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin theo ball run the video side of things for today. Thank you cal is always for keeping us on the airways And a thank you to carl sack. You can find his work over at six cents sports dot com to get his thoughts on the nba Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today back on thursday with more nfl talk to get you said for week 15 Thank you all for tuning in. We'll talk to you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network