 If you've been around my channel for a while, you will know that I too am under the impression that Turkey is a potential global superpower, with its base of operations being in the Sunni world in the Middle East. Turkey will already undoubtedly run into geopolitical standoffs with China, and especially Russia, but one country that I haven't mentioned in my video yet is Iran. A nation of nearly equal size and global standing, Iran could very well be the only country that can stop Turkey's expansion before it even begins. Iran already carries a lot of weight in Middle Eastern geopolitics. For quite some time, Iran has been engaged in proxy conflicts across the Middle East with two countries in particular, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Proxy conflicts have arisen in Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, just to name a few, with several of these conflicts, most notably the Syrian and Yemeni civil wars, still going on. Iran mainly pursues its interests under the guise of securing the interests of Shia Muslims. Within Syria, the Iranian-backed Assad government is made up of an Alawite elite class, who follow a small sect of Shia Islam found on the Levantine coast. They are fighting against Turkish forces who also have backed the Syrian opposition in the civil war. Similarly, Hezbollah, powerful political and Shia Islamist militant force within Lebanon, is supported by Iran, much to the behest of Turkey. Outside of the Levant, Iran holds significant influence over Iraq, following the deposition of longtime Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein. Iranians supported Shia political factions have ruled the Iraqi government since, and as a result the two countries have grown closer, giving Iran the opportunity to spread its influence into the country. Yemen also finds itself locked in a proxy conflict, as the Saudi-backed Hadi government fights against the Iranian-backed Shia Houthis. Military conflict is not the only form of proxy conflict in the Middle East, as Iran seeks to gain political influence over majority Shia areas within Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. Qatar was an interesting case in 2017, as its fellow Gulf State countries severed ties with it after alleged support for terrorism, but the main issue was their suspicion of the country's strong ties with Iran and enemy states of these countries. But what does all of this mean? Iran may have a hand in supporting certain groups in these countries, but how can they secure their interests in the long term? The most important thing Iran needs to do to gain global power is to stop Turkey's expansion before it even happens. There are three factors that will determine who controls the Middle East, geography, culture slash religion, and economic slash resources. Both Iran and Turkey have geographic and demographic advantages over the rest of the Middle East. Their mountainous terrain shields some from invading forces, while giving them the ability to project their power across countries with flat terrain as they can easily move their forces across it. Speaking of which, the two countries have a much larger population than the western Asian nations, both having around 85 million people, while the most populous flatland nation is Iraq with just 41 million. This is not to mention the vast difference in the military cohesion between Iran and Turkey and their Arab counterparts, who as you can tell are trapped in seemingly endless conflict. Turkey and Iran also have similar issues they have to overcome. Their social cohesion may be strong in comparison to the Arab nations, but that does not mean that these countries don't have their fair share of social issues. Both Iran and Turkey are ethnically diverse, with Turkey having a large population of Iranic speaking peoples, most notably Kurds, and Iran having a large population of Turks, mainly Azeris. These issues are compounded by a degree of distrust among minority groups against the majority groups, especially with the Kurds against the Turks, some of whom have taken up arms against the Turkish government. Many Azeris would also like to see their ethnic lands reunited with Azerbaijan. Turkey's problem is more severe in the long term though, as Turks have a significantly lower birth rate than the more rural minority groups in the southeast. Both countries also struggle with economic issues, most notably inflation. According to TraderEconomics.com, the inflation rate in Turkey for June 2021 was 17.53%, while in Iran it was significantly higher at 47.6%. Both countries also suffer from unemployment, with Turkey being around 13.2% unemployment, and Iran having 9.4% unemployment. The pandemic did not majorly affect either country's unemployment rates. Perhaps the greatest struggle for Turkey and Iran is that both countries need the same regions under their control to reach great power status, and one country's growth into these regions automatically becomes a hindrance for the other. If Turkey pulls Syria and Iraq deep into its influence, Iran is effectively blocked from expanding by land to the regions it wants to capture under its influence, that region being the oil-rich Shia-populated areas of Saudi Arabia. Turkey wants these lands under their control too, as well as for the other oil-rich Gulf states to be in their influence. Their control of Iraq's Tigris and Euphrates rivers makes things exceptionally complicated for Iran, as Turkey's dam building projects in southeastern Anatolia give them tremendous influence over whether or not Iraq receives its main water supply. Though Iraq is currently closer to Iran, these projects within Turkey give it a much greater say in the survival of the Iraqi state, pulling it into Turkish influence. If war is to break out between Turkey and Iran, Iraq would most certainly be one of the powder kegs for such a conflict. In a similar manner, if Iran can deepen its current influence over Syria and Iraq, Turkey is effectively blocked from much of its potential to expand its influence. Both countries realize this issue, and this is why they are putting so much effort into these countries. Putting these contested regions into their sphere of influence would greatly help either country's suffering economies, but these factors that I mentioned only give one country the opportunity to seize these resources. This is why things could get so tense. Iran's good relations with China and Russia could also have a great hindrance to Turkish expansion into Central Asia. Turkmenistan, having a long border with Iran and historical Iranian influence, is a great contender to join Iran's bloc. If they are successful in establishing their influence in Turkmenistan, Turkey will have a much harder time expanding into the rest of Central Asia due to this geographical link being cut off. The Iran-Russia-China axis at this point would completely secure Central Asia under its control, though resource wars would inevitably cause some trouble in the future between these countries. I've explained much of this in my previous video, so if you haven't seen it yet, go check it out. The bilateral relations of Iran and Afghanistan will also be important in the near future, giving Iran another window into South Central Asia, and Iran can have a much easier time establishing relations with whichever government ends up controlling the country due to the exodus of American troops. In essence, Turkey and Iran are future competitors for regional and economic influence. If one country is to become the dominant in the region, the other is destined to fail, due to both the geographic and economic mitigations that would result. Thank you all for watching. Be sure to like, subscribe, and share this video with all of your friends. Let's get to 5,000 subscribers by September, so please share my content with everyone you know. If this can be achieved, expect even better content from this channel. Come take a look at my new Patreon and Discord server, and I'll see you guys next time.