 This is Covering the Spread, part of the Fandal Podcast Network. What's going on and welcome to Covering the Spread? My name is Tom Vecchio. MLB Opening Day is here and I'm set to break it all down. As a reminder, this is one of the many shows on the Fandal Podcast Network. You can find that anywhere, whether it's Apple Podcasts, whether it's Spotify. Make sure to give it a like, follow or subscribe. Leave a review that would be greatly appreciated. The video version we found on Fandal TV Plus and Fandal.com. You can find the article up on Fandal.com. You can follow me on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio1. Before we hop into things, say goodbye to Busted Brackets because Fandal lets you bet on every game of the 20. Whether you're betting on a big upset or a number one seed, it's time to go dancing on America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get $200 in bonus bets. 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Visit 1handagambler.net in West Virginia. Or call 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope it's here. It was gamblinghelplinema.org. Or call 800-327-5050 for 247 support in Massachusetts. Or call 1-877-888-OpenWireTechs. Hope and why in New York. MLB opening day is here. We have a full slate of games. A couple of player props I'm going to be running through. As a reminder, I'm here filling in for Jim. He will be back tomorrow to break things down. We had Austin Swing yesterday. Looking at some college football futures. On Monday, I was here going over some MLB season-long player props. Lead the league bets, those kind of things. So you can find baseball preview on Monday. College football preview yesterday. And then today is previewing opening day. Jim will be back tomorrow. So all the lines are posted for the games. We are missing some player props for a few games. So I have two props that I like for opening day. And then two spots that I'm keeping a very close eye on once the lines get posted. So let's start off with the Toronto Blue Jays visiting the Tampa Bay Rays. Rays are slight minus 134. Favorite 7.5 over-under. Normal stuff there. Let's go to picture props. And let's go to the Blue Jays. Jose Barrios under 5.5 strikeouts sitting at minus 132. When we look to the Tampa Bay Rays with their current active roster from last season versus Rides, they had a 22.1% strikeout rate, which was the 12th lowest in the league. Very disciplined at the plate. They know how to wait on pitches. They're not swinging or missing. They can take walks. They also finished last year again current active roster with a 117 WRC plus versus Rides, which was the third highest in the league. And a 184 Team ISA, which was the seventh highest in the league. Kind of usual stuff from the Rays. They are patient at the plate. They put the ball in play. They can pile up the runners, a walk here, a single walk, you name it. The Rays can certainly pile on the runs. And, you know, Barrios isn't a dominant strikeout pitcher. And to start at least this year through spring training, a low 16.1% strikeout rate. Now, it does come from a very small 13-inning sample size. So we have to take that with a bit of a grain of salt. We know that overall Barrios is a pitcher that is never going to be out there racking up 10-some-on-strikeouts on a nightly basis. He is a pitcher that can push towards 7 if the matchable allows it. But this is not the kind of matchup that we should be seeing, allowing him to do so. So also we have to factor in that this is the first start of the season for all pitchers really except for Glass now and you Darvish since they already pitched last week when they were over in South Korea. Most of these pitchers are not stretched out. These pitchers are not going to be going for 90 or 100 pitches. So that's what we want to be factoring in as well. Not only is the match up less than ideal for Barrios, he isn't a dominant strikeout pitcher to begin with. He had a slow spring training and he's going up against this, you know, very disciplined lineup that really doesn't allow pitchers to reach for their strikeout ceiling. So again, a 13-inning sample size we can't bank on, but, you know, seeing last year a 23% strikeout rate or 19.8% strikeout the year before doesn't really inspire a lot of confidence that Barrios is going out there racking up eight or nine strikeouts. So under five and a half strikeouts for Jose Barrios to start the season. That is the first prop that I like. Next up, let's turn to the Houston Astros minus 152 home favorites taken on the New York Yankees. Let's go to a very simple prop. This game also has an eight-and-a-half over under, a little bit higher. Should be some scoring here. Let's go to a very simple prop for the Houston Astros. Player to record two-plus total bases. Jose Altuve minus 105 as basically a straightforward as we possibly can get. We know Altuve is a solid hitter. I spoke about Nestor Cortez on Monday in terms of taking under 139 strikeouts for the entire season. And, you know, while I still think he's a solid pitcher, this is just a tough match about Altuve's a solid hitter. Last season versus lefties, he had 136 WRC plus. He had a 367 Wobba 313 Babith, solid 192 ISO. Most importantly, a 14% strikeout rate versus lefties does not waste chances at the plate. Nestor Cortez last year versus righties. Or I should say, Nestor Cortez last year just overall didn't pitch a full season. It was obviously hampered due to injuries. The last year in his time versus righties, he had 520 X-Vip. It allowed a 312 Babith. He'll have 1.59 homeruns per nine to righties. And yes, Altuve is a hitter that has plenty of power, but is also, again, very patient and disciplined at the plate, can put the ball in play. We know he's going to be at the top of the Astros lineup. He's going to see plenty of chances. And when it comes to the Astros lineup, they have so many good hitters at the top of the lineup, whether it's Altuve, you're Don, Kyle Tucker, Bregman. He's never going to be like they can never pitch around Altuve. He always has to see good pitches because they can't allow hitters on base for free. So anytime we can get a solid hitter at near even money, I'm going to be looking to do so. And, you know, Altuve was okay to start the spring. You know, batting average, not that batting average is super important, but batting average is in the 250s. Wasn't super dominant. Again, a super small sample size. He only had 36 plate appearances or 32 at bats, whatever it was. So again, not a super big sample size, but realistically, Altuve is a proven hitter for, you know, 10 plus years in the league. We know where we're going to be getting from him. So I will take two plus little bases at near even money. It's minus 105 for Jose Altuve at the top of a very powerful lineup any day of the week, especially in the matchup against the pitcher who, yeah, I'm essentially looking to fade this season overall. I also didn't have the strongest spring. I'll add some home runs. Strikeout rate is fine, but I'm not too worried about that without Altuve. So starting off the year, Boreos under five and a half strikeouts minus 132 Altuve to record two plus total bases minus 105. I would play this down to minus 115, you know, depending on where you're looking across the industry, but not any more than that. So those two to start the season. As I mentioned, there are a number of games that don't have anything posted. The game lines posted, but there are no player props posted. So one of those games that I want to be focusing in on once the player props do get posted is going to be the Baltimore Orioles at home taken on the Angels minus 178. The Orioles are as money line favorites at home. Orioles obviously have high expectations this season. They were very solid last year. I think they're obviously looking to build on that this year. Very powerful lineup. They're bringing Corbin Burns, et cetera, et cetera, comes down to their hitters for me today. Patrick Sandoval starting for the Los Angeles Angels. Sandoval is about as an average of a pitcher as you can imagine. He's not a dominant strikeout pitcher. It allows way too many runners on base for free with the walk rate of a 12.3% versus righties. He had a 465 exit last year. He doesn't allow a whole lot of home runs, right? Not a big home run pitcher, not a big fly ball pitcher. There's only a .85 home runs per nine last year versus righties, but he doesn't strike out hitters at a high rate at 20.1%. He allows hitters on base for free with the 12.3% walk rate, and he just gets hit around with the 316 Babith last year, right? His fly ball rate is at 29.7%, which is really low, but he pitches the contact. So it's a hitter gets up. He's not going to be dominant on the mound, strike the mound. He either lets them on for free. Next hitter comes up and he just gets hit around, single, single walk, walk, single, whatever it may be. It's never going to be moving up three, four home runs. So with that said, when it comes to the Orioles lineup, they obviously have a number of fantastic hitters. What they're going to be looking for is an RBI prop from someone in the top four of their lineup as close to even money or better as we can, whether it's Rutchman, Henderson, Mountcastle, Santander, Mullins, Hayes, someone in the top four of their lineup, preferably through your four, that's at even money or better, plus 105, plus 110, to record an RBI. I'm expecting them to get runners on base, you know, kind of just, you know, circle the bases, kind of just go from station to station, pile up the hits, pile up the walks. Someone's going to be in a good spot. So once the lines are posted for the Orioles, that's where I'm going to be looking. Anything at plus one, you're better for someone in the top four of their lineup to pick up an RBI. And of course, if you have questions about this, you always can hit me up on Twitter, at Tom and his work back at one. If you say, oh, okay, I see this player. He's at plus 100. It's just even money. You know, what would you think of this? Okay. You know, that's always obviously up for discussion with, you know, plus 100 or plus 115, they're a little bit different. Obviously it comes down to maybe the skill of the player, where they're in the batting lineup, all those sorts of things. But, you know, the Orioles, our team would think a lot of people are going to time and time again this year, just because their expectations are so high. They have great offense. They have a lot of young players. There's going to be games where they, you know, pile up 10 runs. There's just going to be a lot of value to be extracted from that lineup overall. You know, we have a, you know, high-profile matchup with Strider and Wheeler and, well, game lines are posted for this one, whether it be batter props and pitcher props. I don't have a whole lot of interest in this game. I think obviously it should be exciting. It could be some weather issues in this game. Strikeout props are where they should be for both of these pitchers. I'm never going to take it under on Spencer Strider. I know he's not fully stretched out because it's going to be his first start. He didn't, you know, have a high volume of pitches in spring training, but I'm also never going to take it under on his strikeout prop. And then also on the other side, yeah, there's great hitters on both sides, but it's, you know, these are two potential scion candidates. I don't want to be going to, you know, any of these hitters for a hitting prop when just the pitchers are so good. We can find a path of least resistance elsewhere and that probably comes down to someone on the Orioles because saying the ball is really not a great pitcher. So the other spot that I'm going to be looking for hitting prop is going to be all the way into the West Coast games with the Arizona Dimebacks taken on the Colorado Rockies. Kyle Freeland is on the mound for the Rockies. Freeland is not a pitcher I am worried about in any capacity. Yes, some of his splits last year are at course field. We have to take that into account, but even if we look at when he was away versus righties, he's still not a good pitcher. Well, I'm 2.20 homers per nine in away games versus righties and a 5.65 X fit. So it doesn't matter if he's at home. It doesn't matter if he's at a wet, he's away. Still not a good pitcher versus righties. So Christian Walker is going to be my ideal target when it comes to the Dimebacks lineup. He's got tremendous power versus lefties. We know that last year versus left-handed pitching 319 ISO 141 WRC plus 19.5% strikeout rate. He's got everything we could possibly imagine. He's got 381 WOLBA. Christian Walker is the spot that I want to go against Kyle Freeland. I think there's very, very clear homerun upside for Christian Walker. He had a 48.6% fly ball rate last year and a 39.6% hard contact rate. That is awesome versus lefties. It comes down to the lines. What are the lines going to look like? What does his total base prop look like? What does his RBI prop look like? What does his homerun odds look like? That's what it comes down to for Christian Walker. Also, Kyle Freeland, a lot of 40.6% fly ball rate and a 41.2% hard contact rate versus righties. This basically puts Christian Walker in a near ideal spot. I believe the roof is going to be open in the Arizona. Nice climate there this time of year, not too hot. Should be really good hitting weather in Arizona. We also have to remember that Arizona is the second highest stadium when it comes to elevation behind Coors Field. This is a great spot for Christian Walker to get the year started off on the right foot. It simply comes down to what are the lines. I assume his 2 plus total base prop is going to be a little bit juiced. Minus 125, maybe minus 130, maybe even more just because this is such a good matchup. They're also massive home favorites as you can see, minus 235. The expectations that the Dimebacks are going to score some runs. The total base prop may not be it, but the RBI prop, that's where we could be getting some value with Christian Walker. Again, it simply comes down to what that line is going to be. If it's not going to be Christian Walker, you know, obviously Corbin Carroll is amazing. It is a lefty-lefty matchup to start. You know, they pile up the runs and they get to the Rockies bullpen. I don't think anyone's going to be too worried about getting to the Rockies bullpen and then seeing someone, you know, even if it's Corbin Carroll getting into a spot where he picks up 2 plus total bases and an RBI. So, Dimebacks and Orioles, you know, I would say two teams that kind of had similar seasons last year. Younger teams exceeding expectations, coming into a new season, you know, expanded expectations. Great lines for them, a ton of power. You know, that's really where we should be looking. And again, it just comes down to where the lines are going to be posted. The one thing I'll say about the Cardinals and the Dodgers, I kind of touched on Glass now, and I guess I could touch on you, Darvish, as well. You know, these pictures pitched last week, as I said. So that is something that we can be looking at where some of these pictures, again, aren't fully stretched out. Some of their lines are a little bit too high. You know, Glass now went 5 innings. He only had 3 strikeouts versus the Padres when they were in South Korea. But 77 pitches in his first start, which means he probably could push to 85, maybe in high 80s, against the Cardinals. And we know that Glass now is an extremely efficient strikeout picture, can really pile up the strikeouts on a hurry. So, depending on what his line is, I think it was a 5.5 for the game in South Korea, if that's 6.5. I'll certainly be looking to Tyler Glass now for the Dodgers, surprise, surprise. They're going to be super popular this year, as well. I don't mind going to a Freddie Freeman Total Base prop, going up against Miles Mieglas for the Cardinals. You know, lefty-righty splits in favor of Freddie Freeman. He's a fantastic hitter. Not worried about the strikeouts. Yeah, another Freddie Freeman prop could be fired up tomorrow, again, depending on what the line is. So, we have a loaded slate. There's a little bit just unknown because the lines aren't posted. But early season baseball, there's a lot we can take advantage of just because players may be getting off to hot and cold starts. We have a very limited symbol size from spring. You know, the pitchers aren't stretched out. And some pitchers go through some ups and downs early in the season before they settle in and they really get their pitch count up there to find a groove on a game-by-game basis. I think we can kind of jump on some of those lines and jump on some early hitting lines, early strikeout prop unders. So that's really where I want to start the season. So, Jose Altuve to record two plus total bases at minus 105. Jose Barrios under five and a half strikeouts, sitting at minus 132. And then waiting on RBI props from someone on the Orioles, again, in the top four at even money or better. And then specifically from the Diamondbacks, a Christian Walker prop, probably an RBI prop, again, total base prop is going to be a little bit juiced. So I certainly want to turn to an RBI prop, which is great because there's so many different ways you can get that, a walk with the bases loaded, a fly, a sack fly, a simple single. There's multiple paths to him accomplishing an RBI, which is always so great. He doesn't actually have to get on base. So Christian Walker, wait and see. Someone from the Orioles, wait and see. Barrios under Altuve two plus total bases. Maybe something to do with the Dodgers glass now or Freddie Freeman. Baseball season is officially here. We'll of course be running things throughout the week. We'll have a podcast up later today to break things down from a fancy perspective. I will be doing that for the solo shot for opening day tomorrow. That will be posted on today, Wednesday afternoon. Jim will be back on Thursday. Of course, I have a season preview for some player long season long player bets on Monday. Austin Swing had college football preview yesterday. So that does it for today's podcast. As a reminder, this is one of the many shows on the Fandal Podcast Network. You can find that anywhere, whether it's Apple Podcast, whether it's Spotify, make sure to give it a like, follow it or subscribe. I believe review has greatly appreciated the video version we found on Fandal TV Plus and Fandal.com. You can follow me on Twitter at Tom underscore back you one until next time. Good luck with your bets.