 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire dot com Where today we are previewing week number five at the NFL with dr. Eric eager of pro football focus Looking at some early season takeaways and his favorite bets are week number five My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire dot com joined here as always By Ed fang or dr. Ed fangs would do the the the dueling PhDs on the show for today Ed. How you doing? I'm doing pretty good, man. How you doing? You're not not too bad a little nervous given the way things have broken in the NFL recently with the The COVID positive test with the I think the Patriot situation is probably the Harriest just because they did play on Monday Despite having the Cam Newton positive So I kind of think at this point you just kind of hold your breath. You hope for the best And you hope the NFL will handle things properly, but it's hard to have a lot of confidence that will happen. I guess I don't know Yeah, I mean if you think about it like if you're exposed to Cam you really supposed to quarantine for 14 days, right? So that clearly didn't happen now Stefan Gilmour has tested positive and You see all these pictures of Gilmore writing Patrick Mahomes face after the game, right? Yeah, so You know like the sportsbook I was looking at I can't find the Raiders chiefs game right now So it's still up on fan bill sportsbook as we're talking around noon Eastern so You hope for the best man. We're still dealing with this, you know, it's not just the sports problem There's been some other news since we last talked as well With COVID as well, you know, it's like the last two weeks. I've definitely woken up Wednesday morning and thought Man, I'm glad I'm not doing a politics podcast today Yeah, I listened to enough politics podcast to like get that out of my system, which is nice But like it's weird to think that like the debate was eight days ago Like it's weird to think about how much has happened in that time I just I can't keep up with the news ever Every day I wake up and I check Twitter and it's something new that's happened. So it's been a very interesting couple of weeks I hope that people start to take this thing seriously. It's only been seven months to take it seriously So, you know, what better time in the present to finally take things seriously but we'll see I mean, you know, you want the NFL to be smart value player health and player safety and Hopefully get through this season. I still they will they will get through the season But yeah, they will there's too much money on the line where they wouldn't but like You want to get through the season with as much health as possible So hopefully they are consulting with the proper people to make that happen Yeah, exactly. And I think it's just a matter of, you know, does Tennessee play 14? 16 games. I mean, I think 16 games is unlikely if they are unable to get the game in this weekend, right? And there were a couple more positive tests this morning. I think so too. Yeah, yep So that's tough But you know, I mean, we're on track to get a Super Bowl and yeah, and all that stuff It's independent to the virus but the product in the field has been fun to watch. I enjoy points So I guess there is that but hopefully they can get this thing wrangled in and we can watch some football We're gonna talk football with dr. Eric eager a pro football focus coming up next. He is a data scientist at pro football focus He is the co-host of their PFF forecast podcast the betting podcast over there, which you find wherever you get your podcast We're gonna talk to dr. Eric eager about Josh Allen. We're gonna talk Justin Herbert. We are going to talk her cousins We're talking a whole lot of stuff to preview week number five early season surprises Coaching changes and all that stuff. So we're gonna talk with Eric in just one second But first we had a special show coming up tomorrow on Thursday We're gonna talk with Richard Johnson as well to talk some college football our first college football podcast of this season So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread no matter where you listen to your podcast College football podcast back for this week. It'll be an audio only version. So not over on YouTube But well that posted tomorrow afternoon to break down what looks like a pretty fun slate a college football this week So a perfect time to have Richard on the podcast to do that before we get to dr. Eric eager for today We got to go back to last week and take a look at week number four We had Donnie Seymour on to preview all the football that there was Covering the past Last week as mentioned we had Donnie Seymour on to preview week number four the NFL Make sure you follow Donnie on Twitter at right side VP and Donnie Wanted the Colts minus two and a half and their game against the Bears and also the over on the total at 44 and a half And the Colts closed it minus three the total did dip to 43 by closed But Colts covered here So we got that one the under hit so one in one in that game for Donnie Donnie Also wanted the over at 51 and a half for the bills and versus the Raiders And hopefully you bet that one when Donnie recommended it because it closed at 53 and it ended up hitting right at 53 So hopefully you got that one right when Donnie mentioned it Then Donnie also wanted Cleveland plus four and a half against Dallas and that one looks pretty good by the end of the day They did close at three and a half So closing line value and of course a win because they won that game outright Finally you and Donnie went head-to-head on Lions versus Saints That was another situation I woke up to news because I woke up at 230 to take out our puppy for the potty and I don't know why I said potty on air regardless I went to take her to the bathroom because I'm an adult human and I saw a push notification saying that a Saints player tested positive I could not get back to sleep. So like oh man, what do I do with my DFS lineup since nightmare Not that that's the biggest the most important thing wake up and it's it's fine So that was exciting and exciting for you to add because you had the Saints minus four Donnie had the Lions plus four the Lions did score late to cut it to six points But I did not cover there. So you get the win in that one even with that Donnie was still three and two on the week So make sure you follow him that right side of EP But that was an emotional roller coaster and like I legit could not get back to sleep once I saw the Saints had that positive test Wait, was it a false positive? Yeah, it was positive. They retested It was like 7 30 on Sunday morning when they announced that it was a false positive But like I didn't I couldn't sleep. I couldn't act as I was talking to there's a guy in Syracuse named Britt divine He's another DFS player and I was talking to him on Monday And he was like, yeah, I woke up early because I he had to take his dog out too And he saw that that there was this positives like I had to set my alarm 45 minutes early to change DFS line ups And you know, he wanted to be nothing thankfully, but it was it definitely gave me an extra level of stress Which I was not looking forward to Yeah, yeah, yeah for sure. I I mean I just a few thoughts on that game Like I I don't think I was aware when I talked about it on the show that two of their cornerbacks weren't gonna play Well, I think practiced on Wednesday. I think he was limited Wednesday, and then he was out Thursday Friday So at the time we recorded, I don't think it was known. He was gonna miss. Yeah, I don't think I don't think it was no I don't know what was going on with Jenkins. I don't remember seeing him on the injury report when I bet when I bet the game So And then, you know, I usually I usually head out to watch a couple games at one time And I walk in and Detroit's up 14-nothing. So I was like, yeah, that's a bummer So you know feeling coming in but literally as soon as I sat down the stress kind of went away because New Orleans started scoring, which is what you expect Drew Brees actually threw a bunch of intermediate passes He had nine nine throws at a 25 there were at least 16 yards downfield Yeah, which, you know, no one was expecting given given what he had done I think he had seven deep throws the entire year before that point and he had nine week four. Yeah So I don't know what he saw Obviously the joy lines defense is not not very good They're sticking around with this Patricia guy, but you know, he was a guy I was supposed to at least get it done on that side of the ball And then, you know, I mean the Saints go up. I think they were up two touchdowns. Detroit scores late but There was no way in my mind and obviously I mean nothing's ever a hundred percent But like there was no way in my mind that New Orleans wasn't gonna get a first down and yeah keep all new on the clock So yeah, it was a relatively stress-free game, which which don't come off and then you get a stress-free game When it opens up your down 14 points and down 18 once you count to spread that's that's always a good feeling Well, I mean, yeah, that part was stressful, but the rest of it like honestly really wasn't right. So Take it After the chaos that was after the chaos that was Rams bills I think you'll certainly take that for sure. So Ed gets to win there I had the over at 52 and a half for Panthers Cardinals and hopefully Unlike with the Donny one, hopefully you wait to bet this one because at the time we recorded there were no injury reports out yet Deandre Hopkins wound up being banged up and as a result that the total went down to 51 at one point They closed back up at 53 once it was clear that Hopkins was gonna play and it finishes 52 points So the outcome here depends on when you bet it I said it better 52 and a half so that one did not work and I get a loss there but hopefully it worked better for you and you were able to say in a 51 or 51 and a half because my faith in my I guess my Lack of faith in the Cardinals defense didn't necessarily pan out. Maybe it's more Kyler We'll talk to dr. Eager about that in just one second But first betting on the NFL is great betting on the NFL risk-free is even better Fandal sportsbook is giving you a chance to bet on week five of the NFL season risk-free with their exclusive single-game parlance Or same game parlance simply place a three leg or more parlay on any NFL week five game to be eligible for the offer and Follow along as a game unfolds if you don't win your bet Fandal will refund your bet up to ten dollars in psych credit What do you have to lose? 21 plus and president New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado or Iowa Refund issued as non-withdrawable site credit that expires in seven days max refund ten dollars terms apply gambling problem Call 1-800 gambler in West Virginia visit www 1-800-gambler.net in Indiana call 1-800-9 with it or in Colorado call 1-800-5-2-2-4-700 Or in Iowa call 1-800 bets off I thought there was only one more in there, but there were several so hey Whatever we got through the disclaimer and we are ready to bet put in those same game parlance We're also ready to bring on dr. Eric Eager make sure you follow him on Twitter at pff underscore Eric Check out his work at pff.com and the pff forecast podcast We're gonna preview week number five and see where Eric is leaning for this week Covering the present Let's bring on dr. Eric Eager a pro football focus to preview week number five across the NFL Eric Thank you for spending your time for you today. How you doing? You know guys, I don't I think both I've expressed this to both of you at times I didn't even know if we'd have a season. So the fact that we're having one Even even with the hiccups Understood, I'm good, you know, I'm we get football almost every night of the week now. So can't complain and the hiccups that are happening I feel like They were gonna happen at some point and the fact that we made it three clean weeks beforehand is Impressive. It's just a question of what kind of happens from here on out And so you're you're hoping the NFL will handle things. Well, I don't know based on what happened last week I'm not sure if we can say that'll happen, but it'll be interesting for sure But we haven't gotten talk to you since the draft Eric So how did the summer go for you? How'd you keep yourself busy during that time? I need new hobbies during that time You know, I was talking on my my forecast of my podcast to be of a forecast I was talking to Andy Molliter I think you guys have had on before and I told them I was just tailing his his golf picks all summer That was that was what I was doing That and Madden Sims, which I think our crosses a line of degeneracy. I never thought I'd get to but But yeah, I mean, you know, it just trying to prepare for things You know, we built a bunch of different tools that are there on our site that are a lot of fun You know DFS optimizer a props tool all that kind of stuff And you know, it was it was sort of tough because you know We were building all these things and not knowing necessarily if we'd have a season And so that was a little nerve-wracking, but it looks like we're you know, it looks like it was time well spent Yeah, absolutely And if you have that downtime might as well make the most of it it seems like you definitely did So let's talk here about week number five And we've actually got four weeks of data for almost every team in the book so far And you can kind of pick up on play calling tendencies even before that But we got really good data by this point on those play calling tendencies You were going through some of them on Twitter yesterday, which team to sit out to you is being either Interesting at least either in the positive or negative sense in terms of play calling for 2020 Yeah, I don't know if this is just you know anecdotal or narrative driven, but I feel like Coaching has never been more important than it is currently you look at some of the teams You know Kyler Murray for example, I think is extremely limited right now whether it's his own like sort of aggressiveness or his receivers But Cliff Kingsbury has sort of elevated him again to a you know a quarterback of a 500 team Which is I think remarkable, you know Kevin Stefanski has taken all the good things from Minnesota and discarded most of the bad things And he has that Browns team at three and one You know their best start and seemingly forever Shanahan has you know a Niners team that isn't talented really at all after a lot of injuries Especially to their quarterback and I know that they had a hiccup on Sunday night football But they're again 500 and the thick of things whereas you look at the negative side New York, Philadelphia You know New York Jets are all sort of clustered together and you look at some of their fundamentals And it's like well the Jets and Giants don't run any motion. They don't run hardly any play action You know they don't go down the field very much There's not really a ton to like with them And it's like how well how do you expect your young quarterback to do and and you know that was one of the things I tweeted out yesterday, which seems sort of prophetic now It's like I look at actually Washington, you know, they use play action 35% of time They use motion 62% of the time You know and I said, you know they could get Average quarterback play they could be pretty good Especially in a weaker division and of course they go out and bench Dwayne Haskins Today, I don't know if his replacements going to be any better, right? But they're certainly they're certainly trying and and that's the thing I think when you look at a lot of these teams the Buffalo Bills are trying like Buffalo Bills are awesome I mean that if from a team perspective, they do so many things, right? And if Josh Allen met a certain requirement that was going to be a good team and it he's met that requirement And then some whereas you look at other places. It's just unfortunate. How much talent is being wasted? Yeah, absolutely. Let's get into Josh Allen a little bit more. I mean, is this for real? I mean, you know, you look at a ton of quarterback statistics and their grades that you guys have over at PFF He's been awesome. Will it is it sustainable? The level at which he's playing currently is not sustainable. That's not to say that he is gonna go back to being poor But you know just a couple of statistics, he's leading the NFL this year in percentage of passes that are positively graded You know past leaders and that statistic were Ryan Tannehill who's actually still good at that this year through three games for him But like Mitch Trebisky is also in that list, right? Like there's a lot of volatility there his passer rating went under pressure Is higher than when clean which you know, we've talked about before, you know, that's That's a results driven thing the pass rating when clean is a little bit more process driven thing now He's been great when clean. It's just that when you merge those two things together You get the outrageous play, you know, almost four tenths of an expected point per drop back You know that that's really the concern now. He's limited the negative plays I mean to a degree that we've never seen before so I think that that offense is still gonna be very good But I don't know if you're gonna he's gonna be in the conversation for the MVP the way that he is now Let's say, you know fast forward four weeks. They have a tough schedule They've had a top five easiest schedule through four weeks. They have a top five most difficult schedule through the next 13 So, you know, he'll he will regress that that doesn't mean the bills aren't gonna win the AFC East or you know Have a chance for the one seat though So you were talking about the fundamentals and how Buffalo is doing things, right? How much does that increase your confidence in Josh Allen not maintaining where he's at but Continuing to be a lot better than he was previously knowing that Buffalo is doing those things correctly from a play-action and a pass rate perspective Yeah, and investing in the receiver position So, you know the thing that you know, we always got a lot of flat for was how much we thought receivers are valuable And it's clear now when you add, you know, John Brown Cole Beasley to the mix last year There was an uptick in efficiency and then you add Stefan Diggs who I think, you know, was the Vikings best player You now get guys running wide open and the margins are so much bigger now the edges are so much bigger the fact that Buffalo clearly knows this and You know is working from those that set of assumptions makes me believe that even if we get a down tick in Allen You know whether it be accuracy or just luck. They're still gonna be a good offense Yeah, the erratic plays has still been there for Josh Allen at times They've just been less plentiful as you said and that can be in itself could be a major positive Let's talk about some games here in week number five with you Eric starting with India Cleveland kind of a sneaky fun game I think really lying here is now in D minus one and a half the total is 47 and a half here And I think like we talked about Stefanski But like I think the headliner here is kind of Indianapolis's defense because they've been lights out so far We know they have additional personnel there this year from what it was last year, especially along the defensive line But we know that defensive performance isn't sticky from year to year. So why would be sticky over four weeks? So when we're looking long term, we're expecting this Indianapolis defense to settle out Yeah, if you look at Indianapolis, they've had a top three easiest schedule in the NFL so far this this year Tied with Chicago and you know only ahead of them has been Pittsburgh and San Francisco So there's clearly some opponent adjustment that needs to be added I think when you look when when I'm looking at our grades, which you have a pretty I think strong prior We had Indianapolis is the sixth rated defense in the NFL So pretty good, but not of course the record-setting pace that I think a lot of just the raw metrics would say I Would I look at this game? I think that you know at one and a half But I you know I personally bet Cleveland on the money line and plus two and a half when those numbers came out and that usually I do that just straight based on like the rough power rankings and then we start to get the the You know injury information stuff will put more into the model Which I think I think this number is probably correct But when I look at this game from a betting perspective currently, I like the total I mean, I think right now in the NFL if you're getting two quarterbacks who are above average And you're getting a total in the 40s I have to see significant changes in the way the game is being officiated before I ever ever Consider an under in that sort of circumstance. So when I look at 47 47 and a half depending upon where you look I'm going over that The the Browns have you know, their biggest weakness this season ago was play calling an offensive line and Kevin Stefanski has done a terrific job not only in calling plays But getting Bill Callahan in there Callahan has his offensive lines since 2006 have generated the most third most wins above replacement He's a terrific coach in that realm. And so you're gonna get pass protection there Indianapolis has really eaten up bad offensive lines with Buckner in Houston. It's gonna be a little bit mitigated this week And their weaknesses on the back end, I think will be more exploited by Beckham and Landry As far as the Colts like their offensive line is terrific, too And the Browns, you know really feasted, we know when they had success defensively against the Cowboys really feasted on You know some of the deficiencies and Dallas's offensive line due to injuries. That's not going to be the case here You know Colts are blow banged up on the on the outside but can certainly, you know, beat you with the tight end mo alley cocks and T. Y. Hilton as the alone remaining Starwide receiver, so I see points in this game I think it's gonna be awesome As you said, it's a perfect sneaky like oh my gosh, this is actually a good game type of game Excellent, let's move on to Minnesota at Seattle you were on my podcast a couple weeks ago and you said Minnesota is a six and ten team I would wonder if anything had changed your mind and how that affects what you think about Seattle's a seven point favorite and Pretty high total of 57 and a half Yeah, I mean this is another one where This game entirely comes down to how Kirk Cousins plays because I think that there's going to be a number of constants The the Vikings defense is not getting any better They have one guy who can rush the pastor at times although he was neutralized by Laramie tonsil the other day and Yannick Gakway they're missing Anthony Barr as a playmaking linebacker Harrison Smith has played while Anthony Harris their franchise player has played weaker this year and their corners are a nightmare Whereas Seattle on the outside, you know, David Moore is a really good third receiver But their top two receivers I think are the best in the NFL as a pair in Tyler Lockett and DK Mechap So I think that Seattle putting up 30 is the table stakes in this game. I guess that's I think a given They've done it every single week. I'm even against a really good New England defense who was fairly effective against Kansas City on Monday But you look at Seattle they can't rush the pastor, but they got a lot of the same problems of Vikings doing defense They can't rush the pastor. They're banged up in the secondary I know last week they were without Adams, but they were also without Dunbar both of those guys are questionable this week If they don't play there's a ton of opportunity for Justin Jefferson Who's currently our highest graded wide receiver over the last two weeks as well as Adam feelin Irv Smith has not been involved very much, but he certainly could be and there's nothing keeping him from being involved there So it sets up for the Vikings to have a pretty efficient day offensively So the question it almost always boils down to concurrent cousins take advantage of that Does he limit the mistakes that sometimes have haunted him the six interceptions so far this year? Because if he does I think that this number might be a little bit too high if he Doesn't this is another example the Vikings getting blown out So I I'm probably off this game obviously I kind of want to look at the derivative markets Let's say a Seattle team total Maybe a first half total or something like that but as far as the spread I think that the odds makers and the betters that have shaped this line have probably nailed it So just go ahead go ahead. I was gonna say I feel like Seattle team total is probably like the most It's a low variance Make out there right give them with with what we've seen obviously there's still some randomness Do you still think Minnesota the six and ten team or are you a little bit more optimistic after the past two weeks? Yeah, I do. I mean I look at their to me that the issue was You know the issue was is I didn't think they're deep they want to play a defensive minded game And yeah, that's Mike Zimmer and it's worked for a number of years for him I just don't think it can work now and Kirk Cousins is too inconsistent I think to trade blows with the quarterbacks that are on their roster. I'm sorry on their on their schedule So this week they go to Seattle Russell Wilson this season has You know when he's dropped back to pass he's produced a negative play on 7.5 percent of his throws That's the least number in the league like so he's he's only had one turnover worthy throw in a hundred and fifty nine drop backs So there's just no like as you said that there's no variance there And so what you're getting out of Wilson is pretty is you know very narrow They they have Atlanta at home. That's a winnable game for them But then they go to Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers so far this year has not produced one turnover worthy all season So yeah, and so it's just a remarkable so again Like so if they come out of that one and two now you're talking about a two and five start Detroit is another team where yeah, their defense sucks But their offense is actually pretty good and can move the football as we saw against New Orleans They have they still have Dallas after on their schedule. They have Carolina who I gotta say Teddy Bridgewater played extremely well over the last few weeks And and then they have Gardner Minshew, which I know the Jags have struggled But you know that their schedule and then they have Tom Brady as well on their on their schedule all the Question marks I had in their schedule about okay Would this quarterback be good this year all of them have been answered in the affirmative and they're and they're easy outs Carolina and Jacksonville I think from it from their defenses perspective are not easy And they're you know, they'll again gonna have to score points and when I look at Kirk Cousins I think I just simply think he's too volatile to say, okay Well, you guys need to win, you know, you guys need to be you know You know pretty good over the next, you know, 12 games You know to sort of avoid a negative fate like I just I just can't see it So I think that they'll be more entertaining than I thought after week two And they're you know, they won't be as you know, desolate as I thought but I don't think that they're gonna be a winner this year Yeah, shootouts are always fun So we can we can at least get behind that like if you're gonna play that defense at least give them some offense And Jefferson has definitely helped with that I mean it's a slight tangent here But you talked about Aaron Rodgers and we've talked with you a lot about him because last year was a very weird year where the Packers Over-performed what they should have done But now Rodgers is back to kind of what he was previously sometimes you mentioned no turnover worthy plays That's been a criticism of Rodgers at times because he's been too conservative, you know Throwing balls away not being aggressive enough not enough James in him Are you thinking that Aaron Rodgers is like it is I don't want to say back Like I don't know. It's a weird way to phrase it But do you think that he will keep an elevated level of play for the rest of the way? Yeah, I think so. I mean he his average depth of targets over nine You know his big-time throw rates almost 10% But the other thing is his accuracy percentage, I mean he has made throws that have either been caught or dropped When they're aimed 80% of the time which you know you look at his completion percentage over the past few years There's just a lot of throw ways and there's a lot of giving up on plays And he's been such a good quarterback in the structure of the play which has not which is a fundamental change for him Over the past few years. So, you know when I look at it I don't see that changing anytime soon And you know the things that he just simply didn't trust anything over the past three four years And even the first year of the flu are he didn't trust right, you know the process that much But you're looking and he's without top receivers and he's still throwing the ball You know to the tight ends that haven't been drafted or the wide receivers that aren't names and you know That's a really good sign if you're a Packer fan because it was really the thing that was keeping him back There was always the top plays. There was always the really good plays But there weren't these like consistent back foot hits Best arm town the league besides my home's you know zingers to tight ends and stuff that you've never heard of and that's That's really where I think that the trust has emerged and it's been a good development for them All right, let's keep the quarterback talk going here move to the Monday night game the Chargers at the Saints the total here is Fifty and a half the Saints now eight and a half point favorites for this one Let's talk with Justin Herbert because we've got a three game sample on him now It's not a robust sample, but if something has what you've seen from him so far in that sample altered Any of your thoughts and him coming out because I know that you know You were not a big Herbert guy, but it's still a small sample with him So any alterations for you based on what you've seen so far? Yeah, I mean, I think he's been tough He's taken a lot of hits and he's delivered football so you know some of the stuff at Oregon I always thought he was a little soft and stuff, you know he but You know three game sample is what it is that the might the the cool thing for the the Chargers offense is they've Taken every air yard has become one point two six actual passing yards, which those things tend to regress We know we were your offense is getting yards after the catch or you know They're just super efficient with the opportunities that they're getting So I say this about burrow as well like when you look at rookie quarterbacks. You have to to untangle the impressive from the Encouraging or is there the good from encouraging? So like when you look at Herbert like he's been I would say a middle of the pack quarterback in terms of the fundamentals So is that great? Do I really want to buy into that consistently? No, but I but if I'm a Chargers fan I think okay if I get natural progression from one year to the next that's encouraging You know same thing with burrow that offense hasn't been all that efficient with him throwing the football But you look at everything he's had to overcome which is you know AJ green not playing well an offensive line That isn't great. Etc. Etc like it's encouraging So if burrow you know if things fall into place he can be a great quarterback And I think those are the mistakes we made like Murray last year was encouraging but not good You know Baker Mayfield his rookie year was very encouraging but still kind of just slightly above average And so then we were all surprised by the sophomore slump of Mayfield It's like well, you know, that's just part of the progression if perturbations happen, which they do You could see a fall off. So that that's what I say with Herbert. I think it's very encouraging It's awesome that he hasn't come out of the gate looking terrible But as far as like in the betting markets and things like that I wait a little bit on that I mean, they didn't even I guess they covered the closing number But they didn't cover the other day against Tampa despite how well he played right exactly So they've got they're getting eight and a half here against the Saints Michael Thomas might be back for New Orleans. So do you see the charters keeping this one close and covering or no? That's a lot of points with with with Breeze not throwing the ball down field. I mean they were great offensively the other day and still didn't cut Wouldn't have covered this number against Detroit So again, I think this is a play I think this is is sort of daring people to bet the chargers and I I don't know if I can go that far There's a lot of injuries in the secondary for the chargers currently and then, you know on offense It's Keenan Allen's been great, but it's very concentrated there Mike Williams has both been hurt and ineffective and then and then Austin Eckler who you know Probably doesn't move the betting market much But again is somebody who as a receiver is I think a plus player in this offense and he's out for a while So there's a lot of and then you know the Saints frankly have a lot of talent defensively. We haven't seen it come together very much But against an offensive line like the chargers. I think that they could probably produce some issues for Herbert Given again the long time For you know, the New Orleans New Orleans Saints to sort of prepare for me, you know the the extra days rest Yeah, and the Saints had their top two corners out last week So we'll see if they can come back and and be effective Eric is there any other games that you like on fan dual sportsbook? I Hate this I hate I absolutely hate this. This is gonna be good. I like it already. Yeah, I like it already exactly um, I Think the Falcons Panthers game presents opportunities Let me look and make sure that on on it's the same number that I'm getting in my internals That's on a fan dual here. It's at fifty four and a half now. It's gone up. It was Yeah, two and a half. I believe it open, but it's gone up two points. I support that movement. Okay, good heartedly And the and the spread here is so so Carolina's taking a lot of money It looks like and and at three and a half. I really supported that move I I think I have a decent position on Carolina even before so last week on the lookaheads I thought Carolina would outperform the market I thought Atlanta, you know could have could be a you know a disaster so I you know I I was gonna I was gonna bet the three and a half anyway, and I did and And I think it opens still at three and a half or two and a half maybe and Carolina has continued to get money here I'm I might go backwards and actually go Falcons despite everything Um The Panthers are a team that Is again, they're like every team in the NFL seemingly they're they can move the ball offensively bridge water I think has been a very good addition to them not for their tanking You know, frankly, but you know for them to be competitive uh dj more and and uh Robbie Anderson have been awesome I think they've they've taken the vast majority the air yards and that offense and done Awesome things with them and I think they're gonna score But I think Atlanta I think Atlanta can score with them in the dome the familiarity You know with some of the things the pan and the Panthers defense is garbage I mean they they have not been tested the last two weeks because Herbert turned the ball over a lot against them in LA and you know the the Arizona Cardinals Are just you know the the yards for completion is just atrocious for them I think the Falcons stretch out the Panthers here. Um, I want to see if Julio Jones plays He was on a pitch count Monday night, but if Julio Jones plays I think it's the right side here weirdly even after everything we've seen Okay, I like it. Uh, it's been the the Panthers defense is what I wanted to go into the season being Aggressively low on it was great week one But then since then it's just been such a weird season for them You know, like you said Herbert turn of the ball over Kyler. I don't know if it was because of Deandre Hopkins being banged up or what happened there But just a really weird start to the year for them. It's been it's been strange for sure Yeah, I think the Panthers have probably been the most mispriced team in the entire market, right? You know week one they were they ended up they closed what two and a half three point underdogs to the Raiders And even somebody who is holding a Raiders ticket. I feel lucky that that covered I I think fundamentally they probably were better Against the spread that game than the Raiders were and then you look at week two the Tampa Bay game They were they closed what eight nine Seven seven and a half maybe and they covered that number Except for that long touchdown by for net which was kind of fluky and people probably overreacted to that And then they were they opened a seven and a half point underdogs at the Chargers with a rookie quarterback making his first You know week long, you know his first star was an emergency So his his actual first start that closed at six I think and they won outright and then they're they're You know big dog, you know, they eventually were what a field goal and a half dogs to Arizona Which I didn't think made sense either given everything Um, I think finally people are starting to sort of bet into carolina and I think in this case It's probably a little bit too much. Yeah, uh teddy bridge water has been fun so far Let's hope it can keep up and keep on going because he the world's a better place for teddy Is playing well that is dr. Eric eager a pro football focus make sure you check out The pff forecast podcast and get all of his work there and at pff.com Eric we appreciate the time. Thank you so much and good luck to you in week five in the nfl And also with your college football stuff too Hey, thanks for having me guys Covering the future Big thank you once again to dr. Eric eager for swinging by and breaking down week number five of the nfl and ed It's always fun to have Eric on because you know that he puts the work in You know, there's a lot of intelligence there to help grasp the concepts And I just like picking his brain on quarterbacks because He knows what he's talking about there. It's fun to hear his insights And from what I hear that position is kind of important when you're a little bit I don't want to you know, I don't want to go too far and say the quarterback might matter But you know, there's a possibility quarterback does matter. Yes Yeah But thank you Once again to Eric for swinging by follow him on twitter at pff underscore Eric and also check out the pff forecast podcast For more of Eric's betting knowledge. Let's move now into covering the future and ed You had a bet lined up earlier But then things shifted with the news that dwayne haskins is heading to the bench for washington Yeah, absolutely. So, I mean, I I did want to talk about washington plus nine At home versus the rams and the reason that game is interesting to me is that the rams weren't A favorite in their first three games Ended up being a push against dalis and then there were a dog both at filly And at buffalo and that in a sense was pretty consistent with the the idea preseason that they were You know pretty league average team You know right in the fat middle of the nfl I think they were like 14th when when I looked at some of my preseason metrics, which I Which I which I feel very good about and then all of a sudden they became what? I think with 13 and a half point favorite at home against the giants And so you either have to believe that The rams are a super bowl contender Or a top a top five-ish type team at least five points better than nfl average or that the new york giants are just You know the worst team in nfl history Even though they still have their starting quarterback um And so my numbers, you know liked, uh, you know giants plus 13 and a half or whatever it was and then you know when You basically had to make that same type of assumption when you were looking at um Washington plus nine against the rams. So things have changed Dwayne haskins has apparently gotten benched that line has moved a little bit further back I'm not sure if doing haskins getting benched really matters that much Um, they're gonna start kyle allen, but now that number is Closer to where it probably should be um with plus seven So anyways, that all happened this morning. I was like, yeah Well, let's figure out another game to talk about and so so let's talk about las vegas because this is a franchise That's actually interested me for a while, uh, because a couple years ago They were four and 12 But they were 10th when they when I looked at my adjusted passing success rate Which is pretty good and last year they even proved all the way up to fourth In that same statistic and you really saw I mean you still had Derek Carr, John Gruden as the coach But the tight end Darren Waller and the rookie wide receiver Hunter Renfrow really kind of emerged last year Pushing that number up and similar to what we talked about with dr. Eager about how receivers, you know, they kind of matter um, and they're doing even better this, uh This year in in 2020 their third when you look at adjusted passing success rate and so, you know, it's almost like, uh You know Derek Carr is kind of uh, kind of like a uh, a younger version of drew breeze and probably not as good But but you know high completion percentage low average depth of target completing a lot of passes being highly efficient and You know, this offense is pretty good. Um, you know, the defense is not they put in a bunch of resources Uh, so far they ranked 21st when I look at adjusted success rates. So not particularly good But I think they're pretty they're at least the league average NFL team Given what Carr is doing with the offense and Kansas City is the best team in the NFL I don't think anyone kind of disputes that at this point, but it just takes a lot to cover almost two touchdowns at home and There's also some interesting, uh, You know, when you look at the past results, I think that's kind of affecting how large the spread is Las Vegas lost to new england and buffalo the last two weeks But part of the problem was five fumbles. So definitely, you know, I mean, there there's a little bit of skill in fumbles But like having five fumbles in two games is not Uh, something that's going to continue. They had a minus two turnover differential in both games actually without throwing a pick Um, but the raiders had better success rate in either one of those games And then we saw Kansas City beat new england on Monday night pretty definitive 16 point win But there was a lot, you know, the underlying statistics were a lot closer And when you think about, you know, Patriots got I had a couple fumbles, uh, dumb plays that didn't allow them to to kick some field goals And then there was a pick six that went right through the hands of a patriots receiver Um, that's that's just dumb luck So that game probably wasn't as definitive of a win even though they were playing the backup quarterback Um, so I think a lot of those things are affecting the magnitude of this line If they play this game, I lost Vegas 13 and a half. Obviously we talked about, you know, they might not And maybe the prudent thing is not to play this game, but uh, if they do I'll take the points here. I think it's a it's a really interesting line at 13 and a half because that's just like it's kind of like you said We need I mean the the cheese are our Super Bowl contenders So we have that component of it, but like the raiders aren't The worst team in football, especially because it seems like Henry rugs could be back this week He's missed the pass. I think the three games now and he could be back I think he was doubtful last week as opposed to completely out. So if they get rugs back That helps everything within their offense. It helps that Darren Waller helps out Josh Jacobs helps that Derek Carr So 13 and a half just seems like a really big number And I would also be really intrigued by that one and I think they're a fascinating team too because The success rate like you said was there, but once they get Henry rugs back It's possible they can expand beyond just success rate and get some of those big time plays too Something that was lacking Previously for them Yeah All right, so Ed likes the raiders plus 13 and a half for me and covering the future I want to talk about the baltimore ravens because this slate includes a lot of projected non competitive games and It is not my forte from a betting perspective to bet on those games And I know that I know that my forte is trying to find totals and competitive games and going there So instead of looking at a game total or a spread I want to look at a team total here And that's the ravens over 32 points, which is minus 110 f ando sportsbook And there are a couple of reasons I want to lean this way The first one is I don't really want the the game total in this one because I don't have a ton of faith in the Bengals to put up points against this baltimore defense and Betting a total forces me to at least in some way depend on them. So I'd rather Go with just the ravens here And this will also be the softest defense the ravens have played in quite some time They opened with cleveland and houston neither of those teams have great have good defenses, but since then They played canva city in washington canva city is fifth in number fire schedule adjusted defensive metrics Washington is seventh whereas the Bengals are 27 So in their two games against the weaker teams the ravens scored 38 and 33 points both of which are over this total The Bengals have not faced an offense as good as baltimore's because there aren't many as good as baltimore's But they did let up 35 points to cleveland on thursday night football I'm not expecting since natty to put up a big fight here So the ravens may need to do this early before they go into coast mode as they did last week against washington But even that one they still scored 31 points I think 32 is lower than it should be with the firepower they have in this matchup So I will ride with the ravens to score more than 32 points on sunday for my favorite bet And any reads for you on that game between baltimore and sincenaty I think it's interesting that everyone's been talking up joe burrow and and he he looks pretty good But like he's he's not being asked to do much So when I look at adjusted yards for past attempts on offense, they're they're lasting the nfl Even though some of his other numbers look pretty good. So Uh, I think there's a good reason to stay away from that I mean, it's just because when you're not doing anything and you're not throwing Kind of intermediate at all it's just it requires a really high efficiency rate right in order to get that done Oh, the only two is he's when he has thrown deep. It's been Hittiest levels of efficiency whether it's due to aj green not being You know 100 or whatever it may whatever the reasoning may be the efficiency on deep balls for burrow has been really really bad so far Right, but yeah, yeah, so we'll yeah, we'll see how that I mean I I don't know. I guess I don't want to be too much of a joe burrow hater But I still have my doubts and and there's been a lot of kind of good chatter out there. I feel like and I don't know if it's necessarily warranted. Yeah, it's a tough situation because You always have to juggle do I put more stock in past catchers or offensive line because the past catchers for burrow Even with aj green being downgraded and cj uzama being out like they're pretty good Like tyler boyden teagans like they can get the job done, but the offensive line is terrible when I tend to skew more towards offensive line Then then wide receivers. So I I don't really know what to think of joe burrow yet because I think that It's tough to judge him behind such a hideous offensive line And I think it'll be even tougher this week with baltimore having the defensive front they have I want no part of anything that involves a bengal scoring points So in a way the ravens team total does involve that because I mean if it's if it's a 20 to nothing win They don't need to they can put up 28 points win comfortably and they can coast the entire second half So I do need the bangles to do something But hopefully they just do enough to help the the ravens get over the total of 32 there That is all the time that we have for today here on the cover on covering the spread But do not forget we are back again tomorrow talking some college football with richard johnson We're going to get you set for the stuff coming week college football We're talking clemson versus miami and several other high profile games with richard That'll be posted on the covering the spread podcast page So make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Ed what is going on for you over at the power rank and on the football analytics show? Yeah, so over at the power rank. I'm still writing my email newsletter every day I've definitely been saving some analysis on nfl totals Both what is actually being scored in games and what the markets are doing All that goes in my newsletter. Uh, you'll get that before I tweet it or or anything else So please go sign up for that. It's up over at the power rank dot com Alrighty, make sure you follow Ed on twitter as well at the power rank. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always. Thank you to dr. Eric eager a pro football focus for swinging by And breaking down week number five follow him on twitter at pff underscore eric and check out his podcast The pff forecast podcast to get more betting insights from eric We'll be back with you once again tomorrow to talk some college football But until then good luck with your bets talk to you again soon This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network