 Good morning or good morning. So I just wanted to make this video on Why technical levels, you know, don't work at certain times and I know it sounds like an obvious thing, right? We can see look back on a chart and back test and basically say, oh, of course, we know that you know certain Supply and demand zones don't work here and there but more, you know delving into Not only the strategy in terms of, you know setups that you take But also as well just understanding the randomness of things that are beyond your control, right? And that, you know affects your Your trade in this might affect trading in the short term But in the over the medium to long term as long as you've got really good risk-a-war profile You'll be fine, but you have to understand that There are going to be times when you got pretty much like an a1 setup and it might not work out Whereas you might have You know another a1 setup and another chart and it did work out You're scratching your head and saying why did that one work out and why didn't this one work out? Etc. Etc. So I'm going to go through these things As you know, we are, you know fundamental protagonists, right? We You know, we're definitely You know take that into account and now you've got two charts You've got the Euro British pound. Yeah, and you've got the Euro New Zealand And they pretty much have You know the same setup, right, which is a CPR, right? demand zone Right here. So Euro New Zealand, Euro Yeah, Euro Zealand and the Euro pound, right now The Euro pound didn't work out Yeah, the Euro New Zealand did work out. Yeah, and so you're thinking to yourself Well, well, why was that? And again, it's because of factors really going on beyond You know a price chart now yesterday We had an incident where we had some dovishness come in from certain ECB members European Central Bank members who were Basically saying that they thought that in the March meeting I think it's the March meeting anyway, or the one after the next You know, they that the ECB were potentially likely to not hike rates as much as previously thought Which then caused the market to have to reevaluate the currency Meaning, you know, the market is always future thinking always forward thinking and so You know, it's it's kind of by the rumors sell the fact Scenario at all pretty much at all times Everything is priced in and if it's not priced in then it will be priced in and And so what happened on the Euro pound is that, you know, yes What was that on the on the year? Sorry on Wednesday the 18th. There was this this setup really nice setup And I took this trade And lost right no big deal happens all the time It's like breathing right you breathe in you breathe out you lose trade to win trades But the trade I thought I would take simply because During the morning when I well at this on the on the 17th when the news kind of came out which drew You know the move to the downside in terms of you know, the dovishness potential dovish dovishness of the ECB on the 17th You know, this is what drove prices down towards a nice, you know Area of setup and then looking for an entry which I got and at the time of the entry We had one of the European central bank members come out and say well pretty much no no no You know, it's it's it's fine, right? Everything is okay You know that the European central bank is probably likely to continue, you know, Christina Goddard like to continue with You know hawkishness And you know The the market kind of you know, valued a bit, right? Everything was looking good then it kind of plunged again, right and went to you know I meant to down to more of a daily demand zone because ultimately what our demand zones demand zones are areas of Potential value not you know, you know exact value, right? It was it was value here because prices went to the upside and the question is always will it be value here? nobody knows It's the reason why we manage our risk if we knew for sure Certainty 100% then I would you know risk 100% of my profits on this trade, right? But we don't so we just you know manage our risk now This was a factors beyond the technical setup. Yeah, so beyond the technical setup There are things going on which dictate what price is likely to do now We weren't wrong in our assessment. I was wrong in my assessment of the euro pound I still believe the euro is in the better position than the pound and so What the market is doing is saying ultimately that this is a potential bargain Was a potential bargain, but we just don't agree at this point in time, right? We want to get a cheaper price, which it turns out that they actually did end up getting a cheaper price for those Who wanted to buy into the euro? So You know we I did say yesterday as well in the group that you would probably end up having to wait for the Christine Lagarde to come out and really put a You know Kind of confirm her hawkishness which she pretty much did and we can see That the ECB this is today's report from ING Euro ECB dovish speculation didn't last long So the European Central Bank provided a very reasonable amount of pushback against reports earlier this week That suggested 25 basis point increase were being considered, right? So You know going back to You know this, you know, obviously yesterday We did have Christine Lagarde pushback on that and you can start to see now You know the reaction of of this because now the market is probably now Revaluing the fact that yeah everything's on track, right? I'm not saying that prices are gonna go to the moon or anything like that I'm just saying that you know, this is definitely now a Decent bargain zone and if prices do come back then possibly, you know, you want it if you haven't got into this trade You know, you might may want to be a buyer and as long as obviously the British pound continue to suffer Which it looks like we're pulled to coming out that um, you know Data might be better than expected, which is a really kind of strange one or Things aren't as bad as they seem which that is again yet to remain to be seen but either way This was you know, this is what what what was happening, right? So we had a pretty you know Stand set up could set up not work out and this is due to Things going on behind the scenes now again. Nobody knows sometimes this can work out in your favor sometimes it won't right so we go to the Euro New Zealand and You know again same setup, but in fact this one ended up working, right? Again the timing of things so that was when the ECB were a bit dovish or reports were a bit dovish and Then as we got to you know, you know, Wednesday even the day before One of the ECB members came out before Christine Lagarde, you know That ended up being kind of like the limit and then we ended up getting in fact, I think the prime minister of New Zealand the surprise resigned right so That ended up being something again that people just can't you can't predict or forecast, right? Or the average retail trader can't or wouldn't be able to unless you're really following closely, you know, their politics and and maybe there was again a Potential for her to go but ultimately We had news events, right? that decided with both the move to the downside and also the move to the upside and so When you're looking at, you know backtesting You know strategies and and looking at, you know levels and things like that One of the things you have to well most traders won't be aware If you're specifically backtesting because it's pretty much very difficult to go back to every single move and it Depended on the time frames that you're looking at, you know to go back and say well, what happened here? What happened there? Why here? Why there because especially even in the short term prices are driven by more liquidity and Yeah, so more of a more of a liquidity From a liquidity perspective market makers, etc. But over the medium to long term They're driven by, you know fundamentals and risk sentiment. So wait, but when you're looking back on On trades and trade setups it's always I Guess you have to understand this is that You know, not all levels are gonna work. Nobody can predict the future You know price in the in the medium to short-term is So medium to long-term is driven by more fundamentals and as long as you get the direction right overall If you can get the direction correct and you think that price is gonna move, you know Five six seven hundred pips a thousand pips into the future Then one level, you know one trade does not you know ruin, you know your account, etc All you're doing is ultimately as we've seen on the euro pound is you see a level you take the trade Cool, you didn't get you know that didn't that level didn't work out You wait for a lower level to reemerge that is the level that you want to get involved in brilliant Okay, excellent. There's an entry and then you look for you know a trade there rather than trying to chase You know price going lower and then trade and then it reverses and you've been trying to buy at highs And then you end up, you know buying at lows and then you you know if that was the case then Technical analysis, you know, so many people would be a lot more successful Technical analysis if that's all you needed people wouldn't need fundamental analysis and banks wouldn't use fundamental analysis But we know they do Because they write reports, you know daily weekly monthly reports on the fundamentals and valuations. So ultimately You know your trading strategy and the trading strategies that we use This is these are these are the filters that we have to use and this is what we understand You know goes on. It's nothing, you know to do with you It's nothing to do with the trading strategy per se As to why you know, you might you might lose a trade or two or three or even go through a losing street Right because sentiment could be against you whatever it is. I don't know what time frame you're trading what entries you're using No idea, even though you should be following, you know, my entries so and you know my strategies to the tee but ultimately when you You know understand the the dominant I guess valuation and fundamentals and Resentment and what is really going on is to the reasons why you won't be disappointed when you lose a trade or two Just understand that you know what it is what it is You lose a trade to move on you buy at a better level, right? It's not, you know, some people might call it catching or falling knife in my book It's not catching or falling nice It really is just understanding where bargains potentially are on a price chart And if the market agrees with you at that time then brilliant if it doesn't agree with you because there are things going on But beyond the price chart You know fundamentals resentiment that you're maybe not aware of or even if you are aware of right? You know you still might go against you Just look for you know the the lower level if the fundamentals have not changed every sentiment has not changed in your favor, so yeah Levels work levels don't but the key is to when you make money And when you you know you're on a winning trade is to try to make as much money as you can from your winning trades and really Mitigate the losing trades and Reduce the risk when you're losing trades. I know it sounds very cliche, but that is pretty much, you know what we're doing week in week out Day in day out month in month out. Anyways guys, hope that helps and take care and speak to you