 So, about a week or so ago, I talked about a Keating research poll conducted between September 29th and October 2nd, which found that Lauren Boebert is in danger of losing her re-election bid because this poll found a five-point swing for her Democratic opponent, meaning that she was statistically tied with Adam Frisch. She was sitting at 47% to his 45% with 7% of voters undecided. Now, at the time, I poured cold water over everyone's hopes and dreams, even noting that the poll was good news, specifically because this one poll could be an outlier. We need a second poll to confirm that she is indeed statistically tied with her Democratic opponent. Well, we have a second poll now. And that poll that we saw from Keating research was indeed not an outlier, because a center street-pack poll found that Adam Frisch is officially leading Lauren Boebert by five points, with 45% to her 40%. So, it's official. She is in danger of losing her re-election bid. Now, notice that there's still a high amount of undecided voters in this race that could make or break everything. But, Lauren Boebert, I've got to admit it, even as cynical as I am, she could lose. Now, in that same video where I talked about this, I cited a number of reasons, aside from the poll possibly being an outlier as to why she has an advantage here. And I still stand by a lot of those reasons, but let me tell you what I said in particular. Even though there's a chance, even though this poll is a good sign, even though it's possible that Frisch defeats Bobo, it's very, very unlikely, unfortunately. And let me tell you why. First and foremost, Colorado's third district heavily favors Republicans, usually. And I don't think that Bobo is as much of a deviation from the norm, considering how insane and extremist other Republicans are. Sure, she's out there. Sure, she's worse. But is she bad enough to get them to either vote for a Democrat or not vote? I don't necessarily think so if history is a guide. Also, 538 gives Bobo a 98% chance of winning. So, there is a chance to cite Lloyd from Dumb and Dumber, but it is a very small chance. Now, another thing working in her favor is money. According to Open Secrets, she's raised more than $5 million this cycle and has more than $2 million in her campaign coffers, whereas Adam Frisch, by comparison, has only raised $1.1 million. And I say only knowing that a million dollars is a huge amount, but compared to Lauren Boebert's $5 million. And politically speaking, this isn't necessarily that much, considering he now only has under $600,000 in his campaign war chest. Also, most of his campaign is financed by himself, and he has almost no grassroots support, which means that he's not doing enough to register new voters and create enthusiasm. And he's instead just relying on disaffected independence, which, as we've learned throughout the years, is not a very good strategy for Democrats. So all of those things are still true, but the situation has gotten more dire for Lauren Boebert. Now, what she has working for her is a lot of money in her campaign coffers. The problem is that if it is the case that she's turning off a lot of undecided and independent voters, because she's too bombastic and too extremist, which didn't seem likely at first, but perhaps that is the case, the problem is if she starts running ads and blasting her message everywhere, that could backfire if voters are just getting sick of hearing from Lauren Boebert. So look, I think that the polls, they're not necessarily foolproof, right? It's not like this is a foregone conclusion that she's going to lose, but I went from thinking it's very unlikely to thinking now there's a 50-50 chance that she actually does lose. Although, one more thing that I'm going to throw in Boebert's favor is the fact that momentum, at least nationally speaking, has shifted towards Republicans. We talked about a poll by Sienna College in the New York Times, and it showed that most voters are now opting for Republicans over Democrats with the biggest swing coming from independent women. So Lauren Boebert still has that in her advantage, but still, I mean, this is startling for Lauren Boebert. If I were one of her campaign members, I would be worrying right now, because this isn't no small thing to be statistically tied with your opponent when you're an incumbent is bad enough, but to now see that he's leading, that's a whole different story. So again, like I said 50-50 earlier in the video, I'm going to say she still has a 60-70% chance, I think, overall of winning just because my cynicism is going to win out. But this is a very bad sign for her, and maybe she's her own worst enemy. I genuinely don't know, but if she were to lose, it would be so wonderful to see, but we'll just have to wait and see. Otherwise, that poll wasn't an outlier apparently, and she may be in real danger of losing.