 The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see With Larry Pezzavento Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 Now Larry Pezzavento Okay, looking good Billy Ray feeling good Lewis. We have an announcement to make and that is you remember on Monday We had a young man from Naples, Florida on our show named Norman who calls it to the minute Winsky and said the grains were most Probably topping. I think he was on the show And he said that we're probably topping which we broke about a dollar and then he said it should bottom some time around Wednesday rinsed ease today when we have the super full moon, which is the moon at Zizergy where they're move the moon is as close to the earth as it possibly Can be now. I think that's very important to remember that but something we have to you know Gotta give him, you know kudos when when he nails it that closely now I posted the chart of the December corn I sent a video out on this Last night saying we got to be buying corn today folks look for an abcd and by golly. There was your abcd right down there at 579 we've already rallied up to 603 So if you happen to be in that just put your stop at break even I'll actually put it in at about So you lock in a couple hundred bucks But if it's right it should continue to go, you know for quite some time is what I would be looking at now The one other thing there's a lot of things happening because of this super full moon today folks and one of the other things that we sent out and the Video that we sent last night was the fact that we were coming down To some major major major support in the e-mini S&P if I can just find it right in here somewhere and by golly there it is Let's get it up here and then I've got a really great story to tell you We've got to get off the abcd's for just a minute, but there's your abcd move right there We've had a pretty good rally off at the bottom And so whether if it reverses today that would really be something, but we'll have to wait and see big move today in gold And mainly that's because of the US dollar and the Euro we're going to be covering that in just a little bit But now I've got a human interest story This goes back to tarot Indiana my sister called me yesterday and said you've got to get on the tube and watch your My nephew's son Larry She has three boy at the two boys Greg and Larry and Christine and Larry's son is 18 years old at Indiana University and he's a baseball player and he's he's quite good for 18 years old He's six foot five good basketball player to but a very good baseball player He was selected one out of the 50 players are playing in a a all-star Championship thing at the you at the Cincinnati Red Stadium for this just past week And so he had he was scheduled to pitch for several innings Yesterday and he just he just did a really great job. He struck out one person each of the innings He only threw seven base on seven balls all the rest of them were strikes He had all the rest of them were either Small pop ups or ground balls. He did really good. He had 17 major league scouts Giving me his card and said we'd like to talk to you further. So I don't know if it's going to be something like a Kevin Costner. I don't know but I have to tell you if you'll state if you'll stay tuned to me Tomorrow I'm going to have something special to show you about baseball and Terre Haute and Tommy John It's a memorable billion that my sister was kind enough to send it to me yesterday Because we had a we had a great good time talking to it, but he's very good But you know 18 that don't mean anything at all folks something big has happened today with this super full moon I don't know if you're following it or not I mean, I've had some people show me some stuff that just literally is you know, quite amazing if you if you pay Close attention to it. Let's take a look here at the US dollar index just for instance We've been talking about this for a long time It's not a big deal because we talked about par and the euro and all that other stuff as we've gone on through here And let's get this up here so we can see it. There's the US dollar index You can see the 1.618 expansion now This might be just a short-term blip, but my golly, you know, that was a $1,300 move in the euro this morning folks That's a big move now. I wasn't in the euro I was in the corn and you know looking at a couple other things, but you know The gold's had a really nice run coming off the bottom. We had made a new low at 17.06 So you got to say we've made three lower lows now in that gold We did it at first one was at 20 25 then 20 and then 10 and then today at six So there's four lower lows and it didn't go anywhere other than that So we've got to pay very very close attention to it But look to go back for a second I wanted to show you the S&P because we watch short-term patterns because they help control the risk And if you were paying attention this morning, you were watching the Dow Jones keep making new lows But if you have been watching the E-mini S&P, look what you were seeing here We got this from our good friends down in Texas. You'll see there we go You're beautiful one three five pattern coming in just absolutely perfectly and butter Bing butter boom It takes off and you know continues to go higher So I think it's important that we got to pay attention to some of these things because This could be a big reversal day folks, you know, we went down the the price objective on the S&P was 3760 we went down to 3753 I think it you know right before the market opened after the report came out And then we've had a little bit of a bounce from there But I have to share something with you We've only got a couple more minutes before the break stand Harley will be our break But we had to stand Harley will be our guest today tomorrow. We're going to have Rich Anderson We're going to be talking about the grains and then on Friday. We're going to have Paula Douglas will be our guest On Friday. So those are some of the things that we're paying a very very close attention to Now, let's just take a quick look here at the Euro this morning because It did some amazing things here. Let's just move it over Oh, please don't disappear on me and then uh, is this it? There is what I want to see. Here's the Euro I just wanted to show you the importance of Shut the front door in just a minute here Just a minute just a minute hold on just a minute just a minute Got so many things going on today that I can't get all of them done at once But here is the chart for the Euro now. You'll see Again, you know, we were looking at this number par because that's the monthly now We've had the best rally we've had in a long time folks We've already rallied up through the 61% retracement and that's our biggest rally It's even bigger than the well It's about the same as the one we had back here, but this tells you that that something's happened Yeah, maybe it just be short term But if you're trading in short term, look at this you make a slightly lower low by two pips In the largest traded market in the whole world and there's no stops there Hello operator, you know, give me a break on that one. My goodness. That's a that's a monster move And so that's what we're paying, you know, very very close attention to here In fact, this may be something pretty substantial. We've had gold rally 25 dollars In just a matter of a few hours. That's tell curse this market's been a bit oversold As you can imagine, but that's uh, that's neither here nor there. So let's keep our keep our, uh, You know, weather trying to look now We already started look at the s&p's coming back. It's up on the day now The other one folks, this is the one the gift that keeps on giving I mean, I tell you I sent this out last night because I didn't think anybody Was going to think that we ever had a chance to see this one happen But uh, this was worked exactly as we had hoped and boy, it's been a big move And that is something it's uh slippery And it's also known as texas tea Mr. Crude oil itself a b equals cd. 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Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices Selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave The chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices Get the opening call newsletter by basal chapman and your inbox every day first time subscribers Also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied Let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors Steve rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago And the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 Finishing at number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn And he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his mastering probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter Mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon Sign up for steve's market newsletter Mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of steve's educational webinars Absolutely free at tfnn all our newsletters come with a 30 day money back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit tfnn.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk free today tfnn educating investors Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 Okay folks, I posted the chart here of the crude oil making the big abcd pattern down here We made it early last night down there at the 94 79 level That that only tells you half the story folks after that bottom to be valid $3,000 $3 a barrel Then we came down 78 percent of that back down to 94 99 And from there we went back up another 2000 We've had a $6,000 swing in crude oil and it's only been open here from the market wise from what we're watching here For about five hours. So this is really incredible volatility And this is where these patterns really help us because they get you on the right side And when you're wrong, you're on the wrong side You just get out and don't worry about it. I get a tiny bit of flak today from people that they're listening Uh to norm on monday because we were talking about this super full moon folks. Just go google it I mean everybody's talking about it. This is a very big event I don't know you if you realize this or not, but back in 666 No, 663 bc. There was a dude there in greece named pathagoras not only did he know the earth was round But he knew that the distance between the earth and the moon Was 255,000 miles he did that through the formulas that are famous for him now But that's how smart the dude was he was the first man ever to use the square roots of numbers The problem was so many people were jealous of him that he had to go underground and became a secret society supposedly Unfortunately, there's not a whole lot to be known about him. There's only a few little Tiny sculptures no paintings of him And so it's pretty difficult to get an idea of what he looked like But uh, he's one smart dude albert einstein said they asked him who were the five smartest people To ever walk on the planet and he said oh without doubt. He said number one was pathagoras He said there was god and there was man and in between was pathagoras And he said beside that we had isek newton and we had galileo And of course myself Anyway, those are the some of the things that I remember just Listening to some of the things that einstein said and of course he was one smart dude Many people for years couldn't figure out the theory of relativity But now it's standard operating procedures in some of these things that we're watching here Uh in the news all the time now. I have to get back to bar the leone. Okay If you remember we had jimmy bart back here yesterday talking to us about this path This may or may not mean anything folks, but to me it's a it's something that's interesting That's all I can tell you if you take a look at this. This is the 382 In the weekly that's the weekly apple now we get above this number up in here We get above that that's going to be bullish folks because This thing is so Apple is such a widely held stock You know, you know, basically, you know the dow Jones. These are price weighted. They're not cap weighted So it's a very expensive stock. So it's not the most expensive in there But uh, goldman sacks is more expensive and I think I don't even remember what the other ones were But anyway, it's very important. Look look what happened. We talked about this number Now look at the right side of that where the number says the 382 Is 148 23 Okay, now all I'm going to do now is I did this yesterday because bart asked me to take a look at it And I says wow, it can't be that much But anyway, just just to show you I was shocked and I got a little bit You know people said, you know, what is all this stuff about solar time and all this stuff folks? I don't know solar time from Timex all I do is I watch little abcd's and when they happen, you know, that's great You know, some of these guys out there they do some fabulous work It's a little over my pay grade, but I don't need a pay grade when I'm looking at abcd That's as simple as simple as what it can be throw a couple of ratios Put it on a stove for a few minutes. You can cook yourself a meal for god's sake. Look at this folks On friday, we hit 147 99. Okay. Now it was supposed to go to 148 23 And as you can see the high yesterday was 148 44 19 21 ticks 21 cents Higher than it was supposed to be so we're not going to use that anymore. It's got to hit 148 23 Or you got to consider that's a no-go simple as that You got to have accuracy these things. Otherwise, it's just not going to do any good And if you believe that I still have two or three shares of the brooklyn bridge that are be available for purchase at the end of the show I do not know if this is a major bottom in the euro or not, but I have to assume that it is Look at gold folks. We've already rallied $40 today. That's the biggest rally we've had since a long time And where is it coming? Right on this cycle that norm talked about tim boss talked about it two last friday But norm was really, you know hammering away at it on monday and it was good because it's all over google And it sure doesn't mean anything. I don't know all I know is it's a time count You know, it's another full moon the new moon 14 days. Take a look at them prove it to yourself Sure, sometimes they work sometimes they don't but that's the bottom line is nothing's going to work all the time Now let me give you a little heads up here of what I was watching this morning because When these patterns fail they tell you a whole lot. So let me get this up here to show you We were watching the e-mini here this morning in the s and p because we Assumed that it was going to have a big move down, which we already showed you what the target was There your target you remember on that big hourly chart that target came in at 1760 You notice that we rallied right up here to 1790 At the what am I talking about 1737 90 and then we backed off substantially And then we had this 135 pattern that we posted From our good friend jonathan down in texas There was the 135 pattern and from there by the bing by the boom We went up and we're completing that abcd of that one right now So those are some of the things that you want to be watching as you're looking at them because what'll happen is If you're not aware of where these patterns are short term And you want to quantify your risk the only way you can do it folks is move down to a 15 minute chart That's the only way I could do it because at that point have it look at that perfect 3a2 And it drops 20 it dropped 20 handles That's a thousand dollars and then it makes a 61 percent Retracement of the low and while this is happening While this is happening the dow jones industrial average is moving down making new lows on the day the nasdaq's not doing it Nope, neither is the s and p. Nope neither is the russell It was only that so you had to pay attention and once that held By the bing by the boom this has got a chance to be a I don't know if it's going to happen or not But if it's got a chance to be a really big day in the stock market if this thing reversed all of this Wow, that would really be something. I don't whether it can or not All I can say is if it could that'll really be something on the second hand of this if we go below this number now at 3755 and the e mini s and p then boy that means This trouble in river city and there's going to be a whole lot of selling coming in The selling's going to come in whether it comes in today or not I'm not sure but we hit that map hit those numbers right on the time And it's important that we watch to see, you know, how they how they unfold and then we'll keep a You know a close eye on you know what there as we're watching some of those but It's very interesting. We still well the s and p's are backed off again From that level. So we'll we'll keep a close eye on that as we as we look at these We've got norm winsky coming up for the day I wanted to share with this with you a little earlier because we were watching the bond market Really closely here this morning because of the move and we'll have stan harley on the line here In just a minute folks. We'll be right back If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report The gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold Which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to lose every Monday morning I published a gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xiu Gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report Sign up now by visiting tfnn.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade Sign up today Tfnn is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts In collaboration with tomobrand and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David white has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology Using this first of its kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including guardleys abc's butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is Designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks Just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now We're offering licenses available at only $79 a month We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day Unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software Get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts To help you make the right moves with your money Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be Educating investors This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Okay, we're back folks and I believe we have stan harley of the harley stock market letter on the line today stan How are you doing today my friend? I am just doing awesome larry. Just awesome. This is good to hear Well, mr. Bear, you've been certainly right for a long time now And tell us what you're looking at here in the stock market. You start out with the monthly s&p Um, absolutely. I brought uh four charts here today Um, the first one is a chart of the monthly s&p 500 And get it up here on the screen There we go um, what i've shown here larry is a pattern That has defined all of the major highs going back for decades um the uh The pattern suggests that there's about an 84 month call it a seven-year cycle in the pattern of peaks um And the latest one came in right on the mark um, and indeed if you go back to the january 1973 high And you add seven times 84 months. That's 343 months exactly 49 years the regression analysis lines up with exactly january 2022 so um, it's my Fervent belief that we've seen yet another peak in this seven-year cycle series and then the trend is is down Yeah Okay, boy, that certainly makes a lot of sense now the next one we're going to bring up here Is the dow Jones industrial average and we have a a question from one of our listeners and Does stan harley Be since you're an old time well not an old time of your young timer Anyway, do you do anything with the old stuff with uh, uh, richard russell, you know the dow theory and stuff with the Transportation do you still think that has makes merit even we have this This big society that has everything technical now. What's your feeling on that stand? Well, you know richard russell was uh, a strong component of the dow theory So he would look at the dow industrials And compare that to say the dow transports and look for either confirmations Or non confirmations I believe in the premise I take it a step further. I look at what I call the big five Um, so I don't just look at the dow industrials and the dow transports But in addition to that I look at the s and p 500 The nasdaq composite and the new york composite So I look at the interplay among all five of those benchmark indices And look for either confirmations or non confirmations And that that gives me clues as to whether or not the trend is uh intact Or uh, if I start seeing divergences at a high for example Then it tells me this thing is running out of juice. We had that last year first of all The uh, the dow transports peaked out in early november Then in later november the nasdaq composite peaked on november 22nd January 4th the s and p topped out January 5th the dow topped out and the last component among the big five was the new york composite It peaked out on january 13th and then poof that was it That's very very common topping evolution So I look at the interplay among those five and watch for them to peek out at different points in the in the measured move Wow, that's really uh Really good stan when you go through all those So you do the answer that question is yes, you do look at all three of the transports russia transports utilities and the uh Industrial so it gives you a rough idea of what's happening Not so much the utilities, but the new york composite and the nasdaq And the s and p something that richard russell. I don't believe focused too much on Yeah, but one other question stan and that is do you look at the um What's the my goodness the guy just stopped it to me the uh, what's the really big one that every Value line do you look at the value line? At all because that's supposed to be the broadest of all the indices and I don't look at it at all I haven't looked at it in 30 years Um larry. I'm in your camp. I haven't looked at it in 30 years either. I I like the new york composite Yes, yes the nya You and I back in the day used to trade the knife Which was the the the greatest uh stock market index to trade Yes, it was and the margins were low compared to the s and p and you got the same movement Why that went away? I don't know But uh, you know, I look at the new york composite, which is a Uh, uh a measure of all of the stocks traded on the new york stock exchange not just the top 30 or the top 500 Okay, all right, and we're not well in this industrial chart now. We can see that certainly in the long term downtrend Uh, what it is indeed and something to take note of is look with your eye at the number 30 000 And uh, we broke below that in mid june We're a little bit above that today Um, but as I'm going to show here in the next chart I expect this little counter trend mover and right now to exhaust his rocket fuel later next week And I fully expect to see the downed estrials back below the 30 000 mile marker here in in short order Is there we're looking up? We'll be looking up at these levels with a telescope Okay, this is my next question. How far down are we going to have to use the telescope to see where we are? What do you think the bottom's going to be here on this next swing stand? Yeah, it's difficult to gauge price, but I think uh, the dow will be in the mid 20s So 25 000 ish Uh, uh, okay and early fall and I have some pretty good time Time parameters on that then I'm going to show here in this next chart Okay, this is what we're watching now in the sbx The uh, one other question that someone just skyped me and that is Do you see a potential for a crash type scenario? Given everything that's going on in the world with covet and the rest of the stuff politics, whatever It larry, I Know when I think it's a good answer stan When it was over and done within a couple of days Um, no, I see this is more of a meat grinder down The best analogy I think would be 1973 74 Where the market uh Took a year and a half to almost two years To uh to go from high to low. I see something similar evolving here January 73 You know that was a seven-year cycle peak that I showed earlier The dow went from basically a thousand down to 500 through that span of time And it stair stepped its way down The 1974 period and the 2022 time period do look very similar We had a low in june We had to move up from there and then we made two plumped down lows one in october of that year Where the s and p bottom the first week in october and then On december the ninth of 74 the dow made a lower low And I'm looking for essentially the same pattern in 2022 More coincidental than anything Okay, that's really good. I I see I people asked me about the crash I said don't even think about that stuff. They happen once every 30 40 years. Yeah, you might get it You might not but it's not worth thinking about all it does is waste you a lot of energy And uh from my perspective it's wasted energy, but you know, it's neither That's neither here to there I have before we we have another chart that we want to Share with you stand after we come back for the break But I have one other question that someone's asked I need you've answered it before but since this person is new What is the best book to start to look at the one or two books to understand some of the cycle stuff that you work on? The work that I do is my own so there really is no book. I I haven't I'm not plagiarizing anybody here. Um, there are a number of books out there on cycles Um, they're Kind of just textbook stuff But what you see what I share With you and the viewers here is my own material my own the product of my own original research And you're not going to find it in any book anywhere. Yeah Well, we we started looking at the Hearst book profit magic of stock transaction timing back in 72 Was that 1872 or 1972? I can never remember Hey, listen We'll be right back with stan harley folks a Harley stock market letter. Stay tuned, please TFNN has been your trusted source of analysis for bonds metals stocks commodities and options for years And we are happy to announce that we are bringing that same caliber of analysis for the forex market Teddy kextat has 30 plus years of experience in forex trading commodity risk management forex hedging volatility and so much more Teddy releases his weekly tiger forex report every monday morning with elite coverage of all major currency pairs Including the dxy euro dollar pound dollar ozzie dollar dollar yen dollars swiss franc and so much more Teddy will recommend specific trades when the market presents them and provide updates throughout the week when warranted For the month of july inaugural members to the tiger forex report will receive 25% off the monthly subscription For as long as they're subscribed just use promo code teddy 25 to lock in the added savings This offer is good only for the month of july So do not miss your opportunity to save on the tiger forex report TFNN educating investors The technology around us is changing every day with so much happening It can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David white's investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the information You need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David white has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology His weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks As well as entry prices target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every friday with updates throughout the week You can get the technology insider at tfnn.com for only $37 and 50 cents Sign up for david's newsletter the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer Try it risk-free today with our 30-day money back guarantee TFNN educating investors Are china a shares hot or not if you trade china a shares now may be time to take a closer look Trade chau or chad Directions daily csi 300 china a share bull and bear etf's china a shares in either direction Visit direction investments.com today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus Please contact direction shares at eight six six four seven six seven five two three The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk Including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC This program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz Okay, folks. We're back speaking with stan harley in the harley stock market letter stan We're looking at mortgage rates. It looks like and I think they're going higher. It looks like in this chart Uh, well, yes, and if we could I'd like to go back to the prior chart Oh, sure. Sure. Sure. We could do that just one second. It doesn't I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but I can get it up here in just a minute This is the spx. Let me get it back up here and then we'll be able to look at it There we go. I was just trying to Okay, and there you go monitor um very interesting tactical information available to us here, uh, larry, I believe Um, what I've done and I found this just by hunting and pecking and just by accident um I uh Put the dominant Fibonacci ratios of 0.146 236 382 618 and so on Uh over the chart of the s and p 500 And I put the zero point On november 22nd, which happens to be where the nazdak Picked out and then just through trial and error I found out that all of the peaks on the daily chart every single one without exception Is lined up with a major Fibonacci ratio And you and I have been in the biz for a long time. That's not an accident Yeah, um And then I plugged all of the data points into a spreadsheet I did which called what is called a regression analysis, which finds the best mathematical fit to the data series And uh, we have a very valid cycle here Uh, the analysis then points to the next recurrence in the pattern at the 0.7 64 level And that should occur right around july 22nd with the standard deviation of about three days three trading days So what's that? What does that mean? That means we should expect a kind of a continued chop shop here With the potential for a higher high somewhere in the vicinity of later next week And then once that occurs then the downtrend Should I believe should resume and we should break the june 17th lows And as I said, I think we're going to be down in the mid 20s in the blink of an eye Wow, that's going to be a surprise to a lot of people I think Uh, stan, we have one other question. Uh, what do you want to go back to the one on the, um Mortgage now the 30 year mortgage. Yeah, let's get that up here so we can take a look at I I heard Tom Tommy O'Brien today on the show about the cost that's involved now the last five or six months of buying a house at a higher price and then paying You know instead of playing at two and a half percent mortgage you're playing four and a half or five And boy that that's a that's a big hickey. That's going to put a screeching halt to that Market I at least it has in the past. So what are you looking at here stan? Well, yes, and then just as a backdrop and I I've shared this with you and the viewers in the past My work with the case of Schiller series of home price indices And for years I've been suggesting november 2022 Uh plus or minus about two to three months We should see a peak in home prices nationwide and I still believe that will be the case Now, uh, something that is also interesting is Home home mortgage rates have just gone through the roof lately And interestingly even though they peaked or a bottomed two years ago That did not kill off the case Schiller prices just yet. There's a lag effect that goes on with that Now here is the mortgage rate. This is current right through the present time frame Um, this is a weekly chart going back about 10 years And what I've done here just like what I did with the s and p 500 chart on the prior page through just an iterative process Overlaid my Fibonacci grid line Uh 0.146 236 382 618 and so forth and then just through an iterative process found out that Uh, it lines up with today Uh, and you can see every single important Fibonacci Ratio has lined up with all of the pivotal turns with one exception. That was the 0.146 But every other one is lined up with an important pivotal turn. What does that mean? It means Interest rates are probably peaking right in here And uh, so I wouldn't panic I would look for a pullback that will probably last for some period of time That doesn't change my view that the long-term trend is now up What it means is we've just we've just hit a high point and we're going to stall out here For probably a period of a few months Wouldn't surprise me to see uh rates pullback Below the the high level of late 2018 That would put us down around below 4.9 Do some chop-shop either side of that range for a while and then uh rates I believe will resume the uptrend Of course that will this will ultimately kill off the home price market But the cyclical functions already had that forecasted for for later this November in my work Wow These are fabulous charts, Dan. I really want to thank you for being our guest today We're going to have you on again soon I apologize for screwing up the times the last couple of times But I was a little under the weather with that voice thing I had I lost my voice for about a week and the boy it was uh It was pretty tough so I wouldn't be able to be on the show But we'll have you on again in a couple weeks So can you tell the folks how they could reach you if they'd like to see these charts or Uh, if you want to subscribe to your letter, what's the best way to do this? Yeah, they can log onto my website. Uh, they may my contact info is there There's a little bug right now with the with the link That allows one to subscribe But they can find my email address and or phone number and they can reach me there Okay, great. Listen. Thanks for joining us. Good luck. Stay safe and be on the green side of the grass every day, my friend My pleasure. Thank you so much. You bet. Thank you Stan Known stan for a long time way over 40 years and boy he has done his homework and he does a great job Okay, let's take a quick look at some of these markets. Just uh, what's going on here We've got a break coming up here in another two minutes But uh, I wanted to uh, talk to us about this, uh, the fact that that euro what it did today folks I posted it earlier and what happened today is extremely important I'm going to put it up here because from from, you know, I look at patterns and numbers folks when the patterns and numbers line up I have a pretty good idea. What the heck I'm doing and if I can't find it Then I know something's wrong But if you take a look here at the euro and I did this just what I was out Well, it's I've been on for 50 minutes ago So I'll get it up here and we'll put it up here again because it stopped right there Right at the 61 percent retracement. You'll see it There it is. That was a 61 percent retracement of the high we made, uh, you know five days ago Now remember this is what's important because if you take the newsletter, you'll see that this is a monthly Uh abcd there at par and we've we've been below par twice. We were here A day or so ago and here we are again. We took it out by another pip today And that that other pip today is when it took it out by one pip the largest traded stock or the largest traded thing in the whole world We nothing even comes close to the amount of money Well, except for the money market funds It the trades on a legitimate basis is the foreign exchange of the euro versus the u.s Dollar it is huge a trillion dollars a day folks and that that's uh, you know big time money But we could be looking at a major major number here now We did get a 40 dollar rally in the uh gold and we backed off a little bit Uh, not much yet, but uh, you know, we've got some really important cycle stuff that was coming in today And if these things fail on these days like this boy, that's really telling you a lot All I can tell you about this lunar cycle It was the most important thing that frank tausher The super traders almanac the best trader that I ever met including aim is hostetter He loved it. We'll be right back eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight Vista gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in australia the mount todd gold project Vista gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a seven million ounce gold reserve Vista gold has all major permits approved and has retained c i b c capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accretive transaction mr. Gold trades on the nyse american and tsx under the ticker symbol v gz Vista gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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I posted the chart the long-term monthly and the number of times you see me look at a monthly chart You can count on one hand You'll notice here way back here on the left there when we were down at the bottom That's when my grandson chase was born. We were trading Uh about par Let's try that again. It was trading around 84 from 84. We went up to 160 And now we're back to par again. That's a beautiful abcd pattern folks. It's on a monthly basis It just kicked it out twice now this week We've had a a thousand well well over a thousand dollar rally today considerably more And now what you want to do is to watch what happens next. This is a major cycle bottom that we have here today Uh tim boss talked about it norm again norm winsky talked about it had him on his guest last week And by golly, that's been the right Way to look at it But you know this might only be a cycle the last two or three days and then it goes down from there So just remember folks It's not about how much money you make. It's how much money you don't lose. That's a key to doing it This is why the patterns are important folks not whether they they work or whether they don't work They tell you where you are is how much risk you have because if you start breaking the numbers We start going considerably but beyond par in other words 30 40 doll 30 40 pips roughly 400 bucks. You know that it's not working either works right on the money Like it did in crude oil and gold and and the uh, not gold crude oil and the corn today, uh, absolutely perfect And the the stock market absolutely perfect, but if they don't work, they're going to go the other way It's that simple because when the patterns fail, they're going to go the other way. There's no other Reason to even think anything differently now tomorrow. We're going to have rich anderson He's going to be talking to us about the grains. We're going to go over wheat soy beans soybean oil corn And uh, we're going to just uh and soybean meal They get a rough idea of where we stand and with weather coming in and we're in the midst of a We have to have bumper crops folks because if we don't we're in big trouble It's not just what's going on in ukraine with the wheat and corn and stuff that's over there But the whole world because many of these countries are already in famine conditions We'll see you on the flip side tomorrow live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may god bless