 Welcome to Gillespie News or Dan for short. My name is Rob and today we're gonna talk about everything's going on with the Fed rate hike And on top of that right take a look at Senator Elizabeth Warren is shouting to stop the rate hikes Which Jerome Powell really doesn't care is still going to Put up those those rates, you know probably go setting five basis points Which should be coming up in the next hour or so and this will lead us to that to the bigger question and the bigger Chats about what's really behind the scenes which is How things are going to work with unemployment. It's probably going to go Increasingly higher. I'll take a look at some scary inflation numbers and the real big question that is is Recession really the worst thing in the world and finally we'll wrap that piece up with a little bit of data and information from Nobel Prize winner Milton the Freeman as he explains to us exactly where inflation comes from also. We'll talk about how institutions are here and they are Driving up demand and they also have a pretty big foothold in crypto as far as Bitcoin goes You know, they have they have almost 7% of the total circulating supply. It's true And then also we'll take a look at some positive news as JP Morgan comes out and uses two specific cryptos to do tokenized deposits and transfers which I think is big news for these two cryptos and then finally we'll wrap it up with a little negative news which we talk about the updates for Celsius and surprise it was probably a Ponzi. So let's just break right in and talk about the big first story today Now Jerome Powell is gonna come out and the next 45 minutes or so. He's gonna have a press conference He's probably gonna say it's 75 basis points So I don't see a reason to really talk about that cover that once it comes in people will say well Everything's been priced in so we shouldn't see too much of a drop or a dip But every single time this happens the market gets irrational It's like somebody doesn't know about it and then all of a sudden there's a little bit of a sell-off So me personally, I'm not dollar cost averaging today. Just waiting for the announcement. Hey, maybe for some reason Jerome might say we're going to 100 basis points and that would be a pretty good day if you're just waiting around But the thing that caught my attention was senator Elizabeth Warren is Calling for Jerome Powell and Fed to stop raising rates so quickly and it came down to this Peace which she wrote a formal letter to the Federal Reserve chair J. Powell and said look You guys can't do this And I just thought it was interesting to kind of go through the minutiae of what's happening And what kind of the things that politicians are talking about and other kind of just a little bit of a distraction about what's happening So first things first she states we are writing to express concern and request additional information about the implications of the Federal Reserve's Most recent economic projections its intention to continue raising interest rates and alarming pace and You're disturbing warning to American families that they should expect pain over the coming months. Listen, I gotta tell you Thank God someone comes out and says look here's the truth. It's gonna suck for a while It's gonna be painful and it's gonna be hard and that's what's gonna happen I would rather have the reality smack me in the face than someone whisper sweet lies to me Which is not gonna help me in my position. I can't change these things. Let's just move forward So when she talks about, you know, it's a painful thing. Yeah, it is but I don't think it's alarming I mean just thank you for warning the Fed has raised interest rates by three percenters points over March The fastest increase that size since 1982 which has already estimated to put 800,000 job losses in the pipeline So just so you know in the background all these rate hikes We're not gonna see the effects for nine months 12 months 18 months or so Moving forward that 18 months pretty pretty long ways out, but we will lose jobs The unemployment rates will increase and it's will be painful and what was fascinating to me is, you know, of course Where did the data that actually? Warren pulled this from is actually from this quote From Nancy Vandenhouten Oxford's lead US economist and she states when we look at 2023 We see almost no net hiring in the first quarter in the first quarter in 2023 and job losses of over 800 to 900,000 The second and third quarter combined. I gotta tell you that seems kind of light. I hope that's Nancy is correct, but that's where the data comes from This is where it gets worse The Fed projects that unemployment will rise sharply from 3.7 to 4.4 in 203 and 24 Implying additional 1.2 million people losing their jobs There are fears that the Fed risks tipping the United States into a recession and Causing widespread joblessness and before we move on I have to make a distinction here And this is from a front of the show Ben Cowan over at into the cryptoverse We've got a great website link in the description. I'm gonna steal all this data. So thanks Ben for Allowing me to do that, but we can just see here we have the unemployment rate and the whole point of the Fed was to you know put a lot of a lot of hardship and To drive demand down so we wouldn't see such inflation. They were also hoping this is true that the unemployment rate would actually go up Unfortunately, we can see down here. We went from 3.6 in May To it went down 3.5 in July. I think we remain flat ought to raise up a little bit in 3.7 in August And then I went back down again 3.5 percent So the things they're doing again, we're not gonna see the effects 6 12 18 months out But the thing that I need you guys to be aware of is this going back to 1950 see these gray areas here as Unemployment rates go up This is the recession all these gray areas here in every recession Unemployment rates must go up. They must go up It drives demand down because people can't afford things Inflation rates go down and you can see here just amazing how it peaks here in 1949 and then it goes right down Same thing happened in 1953 same thing happened in 1957 so on and so forth. Here's another big one here 1973 you can see the unemployment rate skyrocket and what does that mean? Well, we can't afford things and it just goes back down inflation drops and it goes back up again It's a natural cycle like everything else 81 and of course the last one we see 2008 2007-89 we saw a major distinction and once there's a max pain then it goes down, but don't worry Because these recessions are natural they do go away But to clear this up in between these recessionary periods What do you see? You see economic boom Just coming forth and this is going back to the 1970s again You had about a year and a half or so and then economic boom another year and a half economic boom a year a little space year Economic boom same thing over and over and over again So I understand what Elizabeth Warren is saying is like look I'm worried about the American people I Would like them to not lose all their jobs and and these things not to happen But I don't see a soft landing and I don't see how our ways around this, but I could be wrong Let me just think about in the comment section So private forecasters project that your monetary policy path will push the unemployment rate even higher than the 4.4% Bank of America expects that employment will peak at 5.6 The loss of more than 3 million jobs So we went from 900,000 to 1.2 million to potentially 3 million jobs Economic economists forecast a 63% probability US wonder recession. I think we're all here in recession We can take a look at different factors and of course, you know GDP growth has actually changed it actually has Improved over the last time period But just go to the pump just go to the grocery store Just tell me how the prices are doing and to tell me if your families aren't feeling it That's how I feel as far as recessionary periods go and there's different facts you look at but that's just how I see things as You've previously stated the fed's tools are limited in slowing these other dynamics And she states, you know in your press conference You said hey our tools which our tools are raising rates Don't really work on supply our tools work on demand We can't affect oil prices or commodities or food prices There are many things we can't affect and those are commodities the war on Ukraine and so and so forth and she's right and in this regard because if they're trying to you know Stave off inflation by just raising rates Because they're saying that's demand that doesn't really work too well There's a real reason for that and we'll get to the freemen a second And then of course through all this stuff that she talks about and it's you know good I know some people hate Elizabeth Warren some people love Elizabeth Warren whatever But here's what she asks for all the all the data like hey What kind of information can you give us as far as these economic projections on a rich employment forecast described above? Please describe the expected impact of job losses by wage race sex education Attainment and sector as the fed see evidence that's monetary policies haven't embedded expectations of recessions among market participants and blah blah blah So it's a lot of like back and forth and like tell us what you know Bring us some information, but in reality There's no resolution. There's nothing else that you can say like hey This is maybe a different course. It's just back and forth, but really in all honesty There's not much you could say to get out of this government printer too much money and Let's be honest. We weren't Complaining about it too much when we get all those stimmy checks, right? And we were really complaining when the traditional market rose up to astronomical proportions And we were really really complaining when we saw that with crypto were we not So here we are and Recession Potentially a mild one is coming or heavy one. I'm not for sure, but I just want to remind everybody Where inflation comes from I know we will talk about demand. There's a small part of that that is true there are different parts of the social economic factors, you know as far as global macro issues But I just want to share this with you and this is Milton Friedman, he is one of the Nobel Prize winners for economics and he was right then and he is right now This is 33 seconds. Just take a listen to this Inflation is made in Washington because only Washington can create money and Any other attribution of two other groups of inflation is wrong Consumers don't produce it Producers don't produce it The trade unions don't produce it foreign sheikhs don't produce it Oil imports don't produce it What produces it is too much government spending and too much government creation of money and nothing Inflate I Can't make it more simple than that and that is just the truth and we can We can play three card Monty all we want to but that is just the reality situation print a lot of money and they should have pulled back and they didn't now we're gonna feel it so That's we have for that piece and then lastly We'll just say that There's a person you should follow on Twitter if you have Twitter John Wick at zero hedge John Or zero hedge Full-time operators 17 years really good information puts out some good alpha and he states this once inflation gets above 5% Is never come back down without a recession What's inflation goes above 5% has never come down without the federal funds rate going above CPI Federal funds rate is now 3% 3% inflation is 8.2 CPI is 8.5% so to think that we can get out of this I don't think that we can right now, but I could be wrong and I'm waiting for everybody to Sound off in the comment section and I will be reading all of those, but that's what we have for that let me know again in the Down there in the comments or live chat and we'll get to that in the Q&A after this But that leads me to my next point, which is this diversification It's important. I know that we want to get rich on crypto, right? We want to be the next dogecoin millionaire, which congratulations dogecoin holders good for you guys So like right now you may notice that I am we're not in El Paso. We were actually in one of our Rental properties. We were fixing it up here in condado in Puerto Rico And I think it's important to take a look at different aspects to get into not just crypto This is not financial advice But the diversification is sometimes a pretty good sound measure to take a look at now again Properties are good. I'm looking at heavy positions into cash Also some D gen plays because I am a gambler a little bit 5% nothing big I do staking I trust capital 10% the Amazon business land things like that and of course a little traditional equities so real quick masterworks it is Fractionalized shares of fine art. I got I own two not outright. That's crazy. I don't know Banksy. All right, but a Banksy in the basket yet and As far as about a year now, I'm up 40% for the year And the performance is looking pretty good so far. These are the annualized returns of different sales of high-priced items 32 31 33 Not bad, but just so you know It's beaten Russell Nasdaq S&P 500 and also crypto for this year Because the reason is is because it's uncorrelated S&P 5 real estate and gold all that good stuff. And why is that because rich people love art This is a shredded Banksy. You know how much this shredded Banksy sold for 1.8 million And then it got shredded and then they bought it for 25.4 million just saying and don't worry It is registered with the SEC because it is a security So I'm gonna take a look at all the information there's a link in the description looks just like that and you can check that out And that will lead me to my next points Institutions I know some people hate institutions some people love institutions But they're here and they're buying up a bunch of Bitcoin and crypto assets and when we get to the JP Morgan I'll explain a little more but There's a great website It's called buy Bitcoin worldwide comm forward slash treasuries and as far as different categories ETFs Countries El Salvador public companies of private companies the percent of the 21 million Actually should be circulating supply, but sure. Okay. I mean because we don't have 21 million out there right now We still got a mine some right about 19 and a half million or so. It's almost 7% So institutions are here and they're buying up like crazy micro strategy being one of the bigger ones 130,000 Bitcoin Galaxy digital 40,000 voyage digital still has mine 12,000 Tesla 10,000 haven't sold a little bit So when we take a look at this and people will say well, I don't like institutions being here It is what it is and we can only Change the things that we have the power to change and that is not it So I know when people say well, I don't know. Maybe it's going to zero Maybe Crip is gonna girl. It's not going to zero first. Well institutions are here. They're buying like crazy They're buying behind the scenes. They're buying OTC, which is why they don't move with the markets too much There's a lot of things going on that I think is a reason to potentially think about maybe this might be a good time When nobody wants to get in and also as a little reminder, this is from Kiyong Ju He's the CEO of Crypto Quant. He put this out a couple months ago. Actually, you know that 76% of the trading volume and Coinbase Came from institutional investors in Q1 2022 76% three out of four and So if you think like a little bit here and there but it is the truth and that's what it is Now it really means my next point JP Morgan They just used polygon and Ave To do a token swap and tokenize deposits. Here's what's going on. This is Ty Lobin He's the product manager at Onyx digital assets at JP Morgan. First of all, what's Onyx at JP Morgan? I had no idea so this is a Permissioned blockchain, you know, we talked about it's a permissionless blockchain. Well, this is pretty much a permissioned blockchain and Not decentralized per se. However, it's interesting that they still have to use decentralized Token assets to move things around. This is from in 2020 Again by JP Morgan Onyx is pioneer the world's first bank led blockchain boo. It is what it is But whatever platform the exchange of value information digital assets They also have linked by JP Morgan in information exchange network and able to see most payment related data And then Onyx is a blockchain network enabling the exchange of value for various types of digital assets So here's what happened today first time it ever happened First Ty says we've used polygon for the trade because we want to do this on Ethereum This step back for a second and listen to what he said. We want to do this on Ethereum We wanted to do this on Ethereum. We want to do this on Ethereum. Why they want to do it on Ethereum? It seems like Ethereum has a big foothold in VCs and Institutions and of course for some reason the banks I'm not going to speculate why you can do that in the chats But it's interesting that he's like we want to really do this on a theorem Maybe it's because it's been around for a while and it's safer However, Ty knows something that we all know and that is that theorem super expensive So we needed cheap gas fees for some expense by operations around ID verification Future phases of Guardian will explore the blockchains to give the MS goal for open interoperable networks We're right now. We're using polygon JP Morgan polygon awesome Second we used Ave so that we could leverage their permission pools concept We deployed a modified version of Ave Arc so that we could set certain parameters such as engine rates and FX rates awesome Third we use tokenized Singapore dollar deposits. This is deposit token is general liability of JP Morgan It's a native token given stable on chain value interesting on chain stable coin Singapore There's the contract and Fourth I think is the most important we used at w3c that's software and tools for permissioned Verifiable credentials provide compliant access to Ave and venture capitalists give much more fine-grained control Then just allow listing addresses because that's what it's all about venture capitalism pulling that money in That's what they want to do now what I want to do Risk limits asset limits, etc. All possible and we built on chain verifications of the venture capitalists. Why is that so important? Well, it's because as a heavily regulated bank We cannot enable money laundering and must I don't take KYC Using these seeds and allow us what's crucial for an able X to use DeFi pools with certainty on these points Institutional DeFi baby. That's what it comes down to so before we get all up in arms and go How dare they do that? It's the reality. That's what's going on So you just have to take a step back and go. Do I like what's going on? Do I want to be a part of this? Do I take a look at the products that they're using? Do I want to be a part of that or don't want to go for it? It's up to you. I can't tell you what to do I'm not a financial advisor. I'm so I'm not your dad. So It's up to you to do what you want to do But for me, I try to change the things that I can change and that's just one of those things I can't however Ave and polygon very interesting and lastly just to finish this up We had some good news. The bad news. Let's This is what it is judge orders probe to investigate whether Celsius was a Ponzi Federal judge overseeing the Celsius case is asked for an investigation look into weather This was actually a Ponzi itself. And Yeah, looks like it was so The order this is during November 1st hearing does one just yesterday because the event days remember second comes in response to Allegations from customers that self said use assets of new users To pay yields and facilitate withdrawals to existing users That's a Ponzi when you take somebody that's hey, I got money for you But I needed to get it from the other people who are in there. Let me give you your yield. That's a Ponzi The judge had approved the appointment of an independent examiner because I knew something was going on Little bit fishy on September 9th to look into aspects of Celsius's business following calls for greater transparency. Guess what they found it They're not saying it's a Ponzi, but they're like well, there's smoke. There's fire. So let's dig deep into that Not the first time Celsius fell chapter 11 This was interesting the November 1st hearing that the federal judge Martin Glenn all told Celsius that they would have to include more Details and it's October 11th motion to pay nearly three million dollars And let me remind you where that money comes from That's your money and my money that we put in a Celsius to pay nearly three million dollars To 62 employees as part of a key employee retention plan. I don't know who needs 62 employees to keep a company going that's not operating With law 360 quoting the judge is saying this I was shocked When I saw the redactions, I have never seen anyone try to redact everything You know, we don't want things to be put out there. You don't want to redact highlight or Blackout spurt and sections and that's what they did and Glenn is referring to a section within the motion that outlines the participants of the bonus Where every detail length the individuals available to the public had been redacted including their salaries and job descriptions Look, you can look right now. You can see how much I have on Celsius You can see how much anybody has in Celsius because it's not public But they're like no, no, no, we don't want you to put that out because that's our employees Well, I see where your loyalties lie and that's fine So just so you know, there's a couple of people I want you to follow To keep up to date with the Celsius situation one of those Aaron Bennett And he just yesterday talked about hey, the Celsius UCC racked up four 4.2 fee 4.2 million dollars in fees in a month. Again, that's your money. That's my money and here's more Aaron's doing great work also Tiffany fawn as She reports out that according to insider sources at Celsius Alex Mishinsky falsely claimed to invest 18 million to sell Ico to track new investors, but never actually invested his own Or the VC funds was Mishinsky committing fraud as he sees currently investigating and last but not least I cannot bring up Simon Dixon. Oh, where'd he go? Ah, here he is Simon Dixon is working quite hard and it's actually Put out this video with Milton Friedman is working right quite hard to make us whole a debtor's whole And definitely give Simon a call he's been in the show a couple times and I I agree wholeheartedly with what he's trying to do And I support Simon for what it is because the other options that are out there are frankly garbage So that is it for today. So look I know there was some bad news And some good news and some bearish news But look at it this way If I ever came out and I was very bullish in a day, you better believe it's a super bullish day Because right now I'm pretty bearish But one those day when that day comes the data reveals itself I will be the most bullish person you possibly can get but I have to tell you the reality And that's just what I see So look, uh, that's it for today's news if you got to take off take off you've been here for 24 minutes So I appreciate you stopping by I really do now if you want to stick around We'll do a little q&a I'll answer all your burning questions the best of my abilities and we'll go from there So take off take off. That's good. Thanks for stopping by now. Let's get into a little q&a All right