 The final item of business is a member's business debate on motion 5, 7, 0, 9, in the name of Christine Grahame on Brexit's impact on inflation. This debate will be concluded without any questions being put, and I would ask those members who wish to speak in the debate to please press the request to speak buttons. I call on Christine Grahame to open the debate around seven minutes, please, Ms Grahame. Thank you very much, Presiding Officer. Let's start at the very beginning. The EU referendum vote in 2016. The vote across the UK was close. Rounded up to 53 per cent voting leave, to 48 per cent remain. In Scotland, the figures were 62 per cent remain, 38 per cent leave and interesting by waving aside, Northern Ireland voted 56 per cent remain. In Scotland, every constituency voted remain, including, of course, Scottish Warders and Midlothian. This was in the face of an aggressive and ill-informed campaign, blaming the EU for all ills and promising not just the infamous side of a bus, £350 million a week for the NHS, but being tariff-free, bureaucracy would be cut. But was it? Increased paperwork, for example, truckers need import and export declarations, security declarations and other paperwork for their shipments. New infrastructure reports to deal with queues and to check loads of vast lorry parks. The trading world was to be our oyster, despite the fact that I believe that the Umbaric Obama said that the UK would be at the back of the queue, which is where it is and has stayed. There were no favourers waiting for the UK. The one that you deal with Australia has infuriated farmers and was even criticised by George Eustace, then the Environment Secretary. The reality is that most British traders with Europe and Brexit has crippled it. Migration would be under control as the UK quotes took back control more of that later as it impacts on our economy. The UK then cut itself off from its biggest trading partner, the EU, where 40 per cent of its exports went and for what. The answer is for the highest inflation of the G7 countries, running currently 11 per cent with food inflation at nearly 17 per cent. In terms of how UK inflation compares to other nations, recent analysis from the Financial Times shows that the rate of consumer price inflation, CPI, is higher in the UK than in other devolved economies. It rose to 11.1 per cent in October 2022 in the UK compared to 10.4 per cent in Germany, 7.7 per cent in the USA, 6.2 per cent in France and 3 per cent in Japan. A member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee noted that Brexit has added 6 per cent to UK food prices, and he said that at a recent appearance at the Treasury Select Committee. Yes, Covid had a price tag. The war in the UK does impact on the UK economy, but Brexit is why it is doing so badly. Even before Brexit, the economy was weak after nearly a decade of Tory government. Add Covid, Ukraine, Trusonomics and it is a heavy mix for failure, bad enough. When you add in the basic ingredient, the Boris Brexit, it explains much more. Do not take my word for it that Brexit has had a devastating impact on the UK economy. The Office for Budget Responsibility predicts that the UK will suffer the sharpest decline of any European nation with a drop in growth by 1.4 per cent in 2023. That compares to small independent countries similar to Scotland, such as Ireland, who will see their economies grow by around 3 per cent next year. Can you take an intervention? I can, yes. Kenneth Gibson? Thank you for accepting an intervention. Does the member agree with the OBR that Brexit will actually cost the United Kingdom £80 billion this year in lost trade, whereas Rishi Sunak said in 2016 that we would actually be £20 billion a year better off? Does that not call into question the Prime Minister's economic judgment? I do indeed accept that. The OBR has also said that Brexit's impact on the economy is now adverse over the medium-term to tune a 4 per cent of GDP. That is massive self-harm, not a weak passage without cries of protests from traders, truckers, farmers, hoteliers, care homes, scientists and even performing artists. Trade bureaucracy has soared. Every exported cow needs a vet certificate. Unskilled labour has dried up, all impacting on the UK economy. Now public opinion has swung dramatically against Brexit. With just 32 per cent still in favour and 56 per cent regretting leaving, rumblings in the Tory ranks about swiss-style deals muttering from the CBI about the needs for changes to rules for migrants to work here. You know that even the Tories wedded to the ideology of Brexit and Rishi Sunak is right up there can no longer delude us that Brexit is just the ticket. Rishi has to keep his party together and foremost especially the Uber Brexiteers including himself and to pop with the rest of us. The Bank of England in the November monetary policy report, while saying that the major contributor to current levels of inflation is the global increase in gas and therefore energy prices, it also highlights the impact of non-energy tradable good prices. These are partly driven by global factors such as the bottlenecks in international supply chains since the pandemic disruption linked to the Russian invasion of Ukraine but also costs associated with Brexit. To quotes from the Guardian, to stately obvious, the war in Ukraine and pandemic-related supply issues are sending prices soaring across the world but what gives Britain a particularly pronounced problem which forecasters say will endure into the immediate future while inflation in the Euros one starts to fall is Brexit. Our departure from the EU has weakened the pound, increasing the prices of imports, adding to companies' costs. Post-Brexit limitations in foreign workers are also hitting firms' bottom lines as our problems with the UK European supply chains. Adam Ponson, the American economist and former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, said that 80 per cent of the explanation for Britain's higher inflation was bound up with Brexit and its endless complexities. It amounted, he said, and I quote too, a trade war the UK declared on itself. So, while living standards are under immense pressure around the globe this year due to record inflation, particularly in food and energy prices, the officials said that Britain would suffer more as a direct result of leaving the EU. More bad news. Even before the economic disaster, there was trust. Between 2016 and 2021, it is estimated that Brexit cost the UK £31 billion, the equivalent for Scotland is £2.5 billion. For Scottish Borders Council, that's £53 million and for Midlothian, £43 million. Care of the Starmars, no help. Battered by its past flip-flops and the subject rejecting any easing for a single market is not in line with public opinion. Neither are Lib Dems. For them all, Brexit is done and dusted and we must make what we can of it. We were told in 2014 that a vote, yes, were independence who see us thrown out of the EU. Ironic, is it not? That we were dragged out despite 62 per cent voting remain and by a party which today only holds six Scottish seats. That lie won't fly again. Already support for independence is on the rise as the Scottish people see the inadequacies of UK economic policies. Tomorrow we will learn of the Supreme Court judgment. However that goes, I know that sooner rather than later Scotland will regain its independence. Brexit was the final straw. I now call Stuart McMillan to be followed by Edward Mountain around four minutes. Thank you very much. First of all, I may have to leave just prior to 6 p.m. as I'm cheering across party group later. I also like to congratulate to Christine Graham for securing this important debate, highlighting the catastrophe that Brexit has brought upon her midlodian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale constituency. As her motion indicates, the Brexit shambles has also affected elsewhere in Scotland, and that's obviously where I will focus my comments. Nobody with any credibility can state that Brexit has been positive. So-called Brexit opportunities have weathered in the vine and the false dawn of a trade deal with the US, much heralded by the former, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson to the mission by the former Prime Minister, Liz Truss, that a deal will be years away, as negotiations are not even taking place, proves that the Tory's Brexit crusade has left people in Ms Graham's constituency and my own Gynon Cynwbrachai constituency worse off. I voted remain and I would do so again tomorrow. I look forward to the day that we in Scotland can rejoin the EU as an equal partner when we do secure our independence from Westminster. The economic climate that Scotland faces at the moment is driven by a variety of factors, and that is undeniable. Once again, what no one with any credibility can deny is that Brexit has been a major contributing factor to rising costs, rising inflation and also a reduction in opportunity. The Trusquarteng shambolic budget has also played a huge factor in the current economic crisis, leading to the extension of the cuts agenda that we saw last week from the current chancellor. The filling of the budget black hole is going to lead to yet more austerity, family struggling, kids going hungry and food banks facing unprecedented demand. Some in the chamber will argue that inflation is high elsewhere, so the cost of the living crisis is not solely down to the Tories and the UK Government. The Financial Times reported that the CPI rate of inflation in the UK is higher than in any other developed country. At the 11.1 per cent, Germany is at 10.4 per cent, the US is at 7.7 per cent, France is at 6.2 per cent to provide just some other examples. The fact that a member of the Bank of England money's repolition committee has stated on the record to the Treasury and State Committee in Westminster that Brexit has added a whopping 6 per cent to the cost of food in the UK tells a story. Even worse, a former member of the Bank of England money's repolition committee, Adam Pozen, suggested earlier this year that Brexit was responsible for up to 80 per cent of the increase to prices in the UK. That truly was a remarkable statement that once again highlighted the folly of a Brexit Scotland that didn't vote for and how the right wingers of the Tory party have led to a level of poverty many of my constituents and no doubt others across the chamber haven't suffered from before. Decisions by politicians matter. Policy decisions and legislation that politicians and Governments progress have a real life effect upon our constituents. I don't have much time, so I'm sorry. That's why the complete disregard the UK Government had when pursuing Brexit legislation through the Westminster Parliament ignoring legitimate concerns from many across the political spectrum, but also from those with no political allegiance has led to the situation that we face. No matter how many cost of living surgeries I do in my Greenock number of Clyde constituency, I know that I will just be scratching the surface of the support that my community needs and deserves. The Tory obsession with Brexit is increasing poverty and the fact that both Labour and the Lib Dems who acknowledge that there's only one Labour member in chamber today and there's no Lib Dems, the fact that both Labour and the Lib Dems wouldn't reverse Brexit speaks volumes about them and how thrilled they are to be part of a Westminster system that helps the richest and punishes the purest. Thank you, Mr McMillan. I now call Edward Mountain to be followed by Fausal Chowdry. Around four minutes, please, Mr Mountain. Thank you, Presiding Officer. During this session, Christine Graham has used members' debates to highlight non-overtly political issues such as the men's sheds movement and the miners workers pension scheme. We've seen other MSPs follow the same convention with debates such as Gas Safety Week and Cancer Card initiative. Sadly, Presiding Officer, this motion does not follow that recipe. It is overtly political and I believe goes against the unwritten conventions of the Parliament. That disappoints me, Presiding Officer, and I believe is unworthy of Ms Graham. Mr Mountain, sorry, but is your music just very second if you don't mind to resume your music? It was just to point out that the procedure for the selection of members' business is well known to members, and that is what the decision was. I don't know if the member is calling others into question. I hope not. That was the business motion that was selected according to due process. I would just point that out for the member to reflect on. Please resume, Mr Mountain. Well, thank you, Presiding Officer. Let me say that I've never been one to stray away from the subject of a debate, so I'm going to address some of the issues that Christine Graham has raised. Christine Graham makes much—by the way, if there are people who want to intervene, Presiding Officer, finding you let me have the time back, I'm very happy to let them intervene. Christine Graham makes much about this Parliament responding and respecting democracy, and I agree with her, and I'll always defend democracy, but it cannot be on the basis of agreement when it seats her views only. In her motion, she states that the solution to the issues that she highlights are twofold, becoming independent and joining the EU. The voice of democracy spoke in 2014 and again in 2016, and the answers were indeed clear, no to independence and yes to Brexit. As a Democrat, I respect both of those results, and I believe that every Parliamentarian should, too. Sadly, however, it appears that because Ms Graham did not get the answers that she wants, she wants to rerun the debate and the vote. Let's be clear, ever since the votes and decisions of the majority have been made—sorry, was there an intervention? Have I had a good time back? Yes, absolutely. Christine Graham? Yes, thank you. I apologise for not taking in mind, I actually cut my speech considerably. Will the member and I respect what he is saying, address the issue that has Brexit contributed to high inflation across the UK? Edward Mountain? Indeed, I will. I will keep my speech short and to the point. Specifically on the European Union, I think that most people will accept that forging a new relationship with the EU and other countries would, after 47 years of membership, be challenging, and it has been. However, the suggestion of separating from a 300-year-old union would be easier is pure hot air. We have seen flimsy pamphlets produced to support this argument. What they haven't done is deal effectively with the issues, and specifically, fiscal issues such as currency, pension issues, national debt to mention but a few. You cannot gloss over these or play fast and loose with answers in the hope that no one notices. They will see through you, they have seen through you, and your fantasy economics will not pay the mortgage. What about the border that you will create with our biggest trading parter, if you were, God forbid, to get independence and join the EU? The First Minister has said that it would lead to a border crossing point, which no business welcomes. Indeed, I am sad that the member who I am about to mention has already left, but the only person that seems to welcome border crossing points is Emma Harper. Goodness knows why. Perhaps she wants to establish a bureau de Champs. We are better together. Take the pandemic, for example. The figures speak for themselves. Scotland received £14.4 billion in barn consequentials from the UK Treasury. On top of that, hundreds of thousands of Scottish jobs were saved through the furlough scheme. In Christine Graham's constituency alone, which both reaches into Midlothians and the border councils, nearly 34,000 jobs were saved. If I can just finish this point, and then if I get the time back, Presiding Officer, I'm happy to. Even during this energy and inflation crisis brought about by Putin's illegal war in Ukraine, the UK continues to step up and provide support to Scotland with the energy price guarantee and an extra £1.5 billion in funding announced in last week's autumn statement. I can give you up to six minutes, speaking time for reflecting the interventions. Thank you, Presiding Officer, and thank you, Mr Mountain, for taking the intervention. Can he recognise that last week, the Paris Stock Exchange overtook the London Stock Exchange in terms of financial trading in the European Union and that Brexit has been an utter disaster financially and people can't pay their mortgages right now? I would answer that question if I have more time, but I don't, so I'm going to continue along the line, and it's not in the motion as you well know. Turning to the cost of food for which Christine Graham suggested is due to Brexit, as a food producer, and I refer you to my member of interests, I can tell you the following. Fertiliser has gone up by 450 per cent, sprays have gone up by 30 per cent, tractor fuel has doubled, electricity has almost doubled, the result for wheat is, for example, which is a basic staple for human food construction and animal feed, has gone from £200 a tonne to £290 a tonne, and might well be trading post Christmas at £320 a tonne. None of this is due to Brexit. All of those increases are down to Putin's illegal war. Presiding Officer, pursuing another divisive independence referendum is not the answer to today's problems. The impacts of war and inflation and the resultant energy crisis are not just local to Scotland or the United Kingdom. They are global challenges and are better addressed with Scotland remaining part of the strong United Kingdom that it's in in the moment. Thank you, Presiding Officer. Thank you, Mr Mountain. I now call on Foisal Chowdry around four minutes, please, and Mr Chowdry will be the last speaker before I ask the Minister to respond. Mr Chowdry. Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. I would like to thank Christian Graham for bringing this important issue to the chamber. Christian Graham's motion mentions the scenic and beautiful area of Midlodian South to Dill and Lododill, but Brexit poses challenges in Midlodian North across Lodian and across Scotland. So, there is much to agree with in the motion being discussed, but it will not surprise Christian Graham that I cannot support its conclusion. Last week in the debate on the Constitutional Europe External Affairs and Cultural Committee report, my colleague Sarah Boyack said many of us did not want to be here dealing with the consequences of the UK's departure from the EU, and she's right. But Brexit and the levels of inflation being faced today lie squarely at the door of the Tories. The EU referendum was a political choice by David Cameron to try to unite his party. The Brexit deal was firstly negotiated by Theresa May and voted against by Boris Johnson, only for Boris Johnson to renegotiate parts of the deal. The former Prime Minister described it is an open ready deal, only for him and now his two Tory successor to seek to uniliterally change that very deal through the Northern Ireland protocol bill. Now the Tory party are very keen to point out that there are inflationary pressure everywhere, which is true to an extent. But the UK finds itself in a far worse position than many comparable countries because of two factors, the recent political instability and the fact that the Tory party is held hostage by an internal function which will only accept the most extreme from of Brexit. But I think many across the United Kingdom are tired of government by internal Tory drama. We need a Labour government in Westminster to provide solid leadership and move the UK forward. So I cannot accept the conclusion of the motion that independent is the answer to this problem. As Mark Blyth, one of the economists appointed to the First Minister's own panel of advisers, sorry I'll just go ahead, adviser has said independence would be Brexit times 10. The answer to the disruption caused by separation from our biggest trading partners is not to repeat the process. It is a change of direction in Westminster with a new constructive attitude to our friends on the continent and a commitment to revitalising our economy. Only by doing this will we deliver an economy that works for everyone across the UK. This better future is possible and I want to see it for Christian Graham's constituency just as much as for the Lothian region and the rest of Scotland. I thank Christian Graham for bringing this debate to the chamber. I recall that we debated Brexit many times in the last session. It strikes me that so much of what we said then has come to pass. I think that this debate, amongst reminding us of what we said then, also serves the useful purpose of puncturing the conspiracy of silence that seems to have taken hold in many quarters with regard to the material impact that Brexit is happening in concert with other factors that are impacting on our economy and indeed our way of life. We did warn repeatedly and we did so emphatically that Brexit and particularly the variety of Brexit, the hub Brexit imposed by Westminster, would cause huge damage to Scotland's economy. To add to the harm caused economically, socially and culturally from the loss of horizon, erasmus, free movement and also environmentally with plans now to remove high EU standards from our statute books. It was not just the Scottish Government at saying so and it is not just the Scottish Government saying so now. Sadly, this is reaffirmed by the sort of statistics in Christian Graham's motion and reported almost weekly with each new economic forecast or trade statistic. Recently, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, linked to current financial predicament to Brexit and Mark Herney, a former Governor of the Bank of England, believes that Brexit acts as a break on economic growth and increases the rate of inflation. The UK's rate of inflation hit a 41-year high in October, accelerating to 11.1 per cent. The sharp rise was caused by higher gas, electricity and food prices. Annual food price inflation rocketed to 16.5 per cent, the highest for 45 years. Those figures mask a bleak reality. They mean hardship for more individuals, families, businesses and communities. The people paying the highest price for this are those on the lowest income. The people paying the highest price for Brexit are those on the lowest incomes, despite Scotland voting to the main. I recognise that there are other factors, but Brexit is a significant contributory factor. Of all the factors that we face now, it is the one that was the result of a clear political choice by a Government in these islands. The Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast that UK GDP will be cut by 4 per cent as a result of Brexit. The Financial Times reported that £100 billion has lost output and £40 billion in less revenue for the Treasury each year. Brexit is contributing to fueling inflation and is making Scotland and the rest of the UK poorer. As a consequence of Brexit, the UK is facing a worse cost of living crisis than it otherwise would be, partly due to the loss of free trade. Analysis in April from the London School of Economics showed that post-Brexit trade barriers resulted in a 6 per cent increase in food prices in the UK. A report by the Resolution Foundation in June. I thank Mr Arthur for giving way. As a food producer, I know that the majority of costs come down to the cost of fuel, because that underpins all costs of production. It is not actually down to Brexit. Will you accept that fuel prices drive food prices? If so, everyone will gain to affect it. I suspect that others will be catching up across Europe shortly. I have not said in my remarks that Brexit is a sole cause of the situation that we face. I recognise that. I recognise that inflation across the economy is going to ultimately be a reflection of energy price inflation. That is just a reality and an economic fact that we cannot accept. However, the point that I am making, and those are independent statistics, is that Brexit has had a contributory factor. A report by the Resolution Foundation in June found that, even before the UK left the EU, currency depreciation linked to Brexit increased the cost of living in the UK by £870 per year for the average household. The trade barriers that we now have are causing real harm. The OBR now expects trade volumes to decline over the medium term, falling to 8.3 per cent below present levels in the final quarter of next year. A food and drink sector in Scotland has borne the brunt of the harbregs that was imposed by Westminster on Scotland. Exports to the EU and key food products have fallen by 52 per cent in fruit and vegetables, and 25 per cent in exports of dairy and eggs in the first half of 2022, compared to the same period in 2019. Scottish businesses have seen record increases in input prices in 2022 and saw Brexit as a factor according to SNP global statistics. That has fed through to the 21st monthly rise in prices charged by businesses as of July. Brexit has ended free trade and also free movement, hurting key Scottish industries and contributing and creating labour shortages. It is now more expensive and time consuming for employers to recruit from overseas and for people who want to come to Scotland to live and work. Food processing and manufacturing, hospitality and agriculture are particularly affected, harming rural Scotland in particular. As of July 2022, a range of key economic sectors in Scotland were experiencing worker shortages, for example 43.4 per cent in construction and 43.8 per cent in accommodation and food, but that economic harm is also a social harm. We are poorer as a result of Brexit and we are risk missing out on the cultural benefits of having more people of working age from a range of backgrounds and contributing to our common will. We are doing everything we can within our limited powers to support people and businesses. By the end of March next year, we will have invested around £3 billion in a range of measures to support households. That includes supporting energy bills, childcare, health and travel, as well as social security payments that are either not available elsewhere in the UK or are more generous. For businesses, we have an existing package of non-domestic rates relief worth over £800 million, which includes the UK's most generous small business bonus scheme. However, we are doing all this with, I do not just say one, but at times it feels like two hands tied behind our back. Inflashing is eating away at the Scottish budget, which has already fallen by 10 per cent in real terms between this year and last. Due to the lack of additional funding in 2022-23 and the financial restrictions of devolution, we have had no choice but to make savings of over £1 billion. The announcements in the last week's UK autumn statement do very little to address the damage that is done to the Scottish budget. I recognise that we face a series of global challenges and that the situation that we find ourselves in today lends itself to no easy solutions. However, I recognise that, many of the issues that we have, Brexit can be cited as a contributory factor. Brexit was ultimately a political choice. I dispute anyone who would wish to argue that it has democratic legitimacy in Scotland. Scotland comprehensively rejected Brexit in 2016, and every election since then to this Parliament and to Westminster, parties opposed to Brexit have been overwhelmingly returned. However, there is another reality, Presiding Officer, and it is this as well. The hard Brexit that we have inflicted upon us was not a necessity. There was a moment in June, July and August of 2016 when the UK Government could have listened, they could have engaged, they could have heeded the warnings of this Government, of this Parliament and many other stakeholders and sought to pursue an arrangement for European Union that would minimise damage. However, rather than focusing on what was best for the United Kingdom, the United Kingdom Government focused on what they thought was best for the Conservative Party. Unfortunately, and as a consequence of that, we are all paying the price today. Thank you Minister. That concludes the debate, and I close this meeting.