 The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome Paul to another excellent edition of The Power Trading Hour. As always, we come together at the appointed time and of course it would always be something else. No, it's not that. Why would it do that? I don't know. Yeah, it's just sometimes. Some of this older stuff I have is a little buggy. We'll see about that. What can you say? The appointed time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. My OCD won't let me get through without that, 877-927-6648. So what do we have? Well, it is a blood bath in Carnet. As I said during the 2 p.m. update, which I now do, I'm debating whether or not there was more blood today in the markets or in Kill Bill Volume 2. And I understand that they had two 55-gallon drums of blood for that movie, but a 3% move on the S&P onto the downside. And it wasn't something that we couldn't see that wasn't coming. What did I have? Well, let's just put it up here. This is my newsletter yesterday morning that I was looking at low volume up and down. It's all fun and games till someone loses an eye. We have monthly expiration on quad-witching on Friday. It's quad-witching, though you see a little bit more. The two things that really hit me were the trend readings on the Amex. I really like the Amex because it's just the big ETFs. And most of the home gamers tend to play those. So when you see them, we'll go down here to the readings down there. This is yesterday morning's newsletter. We had a 0.74, 0.79, and 0.6 the day before. So we've had four days of below one trend reading on the NASDAQ. And you really never got any kind of significant volume yesterday or into Friday was fairly light. You got less than 10 billion shares on the CBOE consolidated volume. Other things that were showing that we were getting ready for a very nasty time, and the VIX put call ratio was very low, go to that, 28% on the VIX. I use that more than anything because it's one of the few times that you get the number separated out from the rest of the market. Now the VIX is just the premiums in the out of the money stocks in the S&P 500. That's one of the few times you get a reading on just how many people are thinking about buying out of the money opposed to in the money. You can look at the equity PC. That's pretty low, but yesterday or going into Friday, that was 34%. So both of those were incredibly low. We had a lot of people getting on one side of the market or another. Dark pool numbers continue to be elevated, which suggested the retail trader was not getting involved in this putinanny of pushing the market higher. And we had lots of highly shorted stocks, although we didn't have a lot of people short. The ones that had been highly shorted, I know in the den, they go after SAVA a lot. But I think that had, when we talked yesterday morning, the options weren't that bullish on it, but certainly I think it was getting 34%, 40% short sellers in it. It's pretty easy to run those folks. Kind of the same thing as we talked about yesterday, when we got into when we got into Apple. And I thought it was highly suspect that we would see something like Apple have such a run after it couldn't get anything going during its dog and pony last week on its iPhone. I said that the self-serving article about just how they couldn't keep up and crashed the servers was something for maybe 15, 20 years ago, not something where you can put on 20 major servers every second from Amazon web services, Microsoft web services. I know Apple uses both of those. So a suspect story kind of planted. You've got a pretty nice reversal in Apple here today. But there was a lot of things out there. What we what I didn't really have was an incredible turnaround. You had a little bit of weakness going into the close yesterday. But there wasn't that smoking gun other than everything else telling us we are it were incredibly close. But if you just looked at it, backed out all the news, did you get a real good signal that said, hey, tomorrow is the day that everything is going to go to hell in a hand basket. Well, you had everything leading up to it. The only thing was the indictment which you get today. This still puts you over the three by three on Apple a day. As I said, the best thing that can happen is we pull back on light volume today. Now is today so far a huge volume day. It certainly is bigger than the other days that we've been coming in when the high five billions to low six billion as we start the show. Today, 6.8 billion are already. So we're up about 15, 20 percent for on rate. Important for us to see whether or not we're going to go back and test those lows and the early 700s in the S&P is what volume is in the next couple of days. Now, I have a lot of people asking me if I would buy anything. And long ago, I set some rules because I lost a lot of money ignoring rules. And for me, that rule is always three days. That is, if we have a wicked move with huge numbers, it has been exceedingly rare, not never happened, but exceedingly rare that I wouldn't have been better off waiting three days. So no one knows what's going to happen. But using history as a gauge, it would say that at least we have three days. Now, we've got the trains going on strike, maybe on Friday, maybe not. My guess is that we don't go anywhere. And the Fed gets involved next Wednesday at 2 p.m. And one 1 percent rate hike. Do we get that next Wednesday? I think it's better than a 50 50 chance. Is it 100 percent? No. But I think it's as good as a flip of a quarter. And that makes me think that a lot of people are going to be sitting on the sidelines and tell they see Mr. Fed tells us what we're going to do. Yesterday, we spent some time on the TLT. We were talking about looking at a move back to 101. We got to 106.24 today. But we saw they broke it. We're staying below it. I don't really see anything out here, other than a little bit more. We've had the last three or four days in it, but that will be at a lower close, most likely. We'll be back in a minute. With booming inflation, we are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your harder and money than in gold. This, the gold's flagship asset is the Monk Todd Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district. This is a large scale, low cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction. 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These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Toll Free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. As we come back to a bloody Tuesday, some people were calling it Black Tuesday. Can you say that anymore? Don't know. Anyway, S&P in the last tick was 3982. As I said, we get a little more volume and that opens the door again to 3750-ish. I've never liked that we didn't go back and retest at low. As I said yesterday, a low is not a low until it's been retested. I got that drummed in my head by Tim Ord very early on and saw the wisdom of it. I think a lot of people abandoned that over the last five years as the Fed got involved in manipulating the market. Now that they're letting the bathwater out of the tub, I think a lot of those things that work for the previous 120 or 50 years are coming back and in spades. Anyway, Dow's down 2.8%, 31.469. Russell's down 3.1% in 1846. Crude 87.67%. It's one of the better ones. Was posting some of the sectors out there. And we'll get to those in a little bit. We've got some questions. But I think it was like solar stocks. One of the few stocks that was kind of that sector, at least some of them were holding up. This is an important day, even if you don't have a position to start looking and seeing what's holding up and what's not. Doesn't mean that we're not going to get some more moves down. Generally what's holding up today will start to crack. And that's the very end of a downtrend or a move like we've seen today. But as I said, I'm not much of one getting into the markets after a huge single-day move down for three days. Somebody brought it up in the den. I think it was Dudette about margin calls. Those come rather late in the day. I think a lot of folks, especially on Wall Street, had been chasing this move, trying to get positive returns back in. And they may have been margined out to the hilt. You never know. But the proof of the pudding, as Warren Buffett said, is you don't know who was swimming without a bathing suit until the tide goes out. And the tide goes out to about 2.30, 3.30. We should be getting, if we're going to get some margin calls for everybody that was long, just like we get those folks in the same thing when they're short on margin. Question in the den about BCLI being a double repo. It would be a double repo if it closes back below the previous, the 3x3. This is the opposite side of that, which means it's OK unless it closes below the line, if it closes below the 3x3, then that would suggest you're going back to $2.50, $2.65, something like that where it started. So this is just the opposite side of that. You stay over it for a long term, you come underneath it for a handful of days, you go back over it, and then the next move lower that breaks the 3x3 is the end of it. So this would be a setup for bearishness although I'm not saying it's going to be bearish, but the double repo pattern if it came in would be bearish. That's fine, as long as it stays above the 3x3, you're cool. Question about going long MRVL from our friend Will. As I said, I'm not a big fan out here at all about being anything long, at least for three days and probably into Wednesday next week for the Fed, because my guess is the volume is all going to dry up come Monday or Tuesday morning next week, and that's going to be it. You may get a little bounce if there's a settlement in the train dispute for a strike, because that could kill everything. On a strike, I would probably be long crude. The reason why, of course, the policy from the US government has been to kill domestic production. Part of that was to kill off the pipelines, and that actually forced a lot of this crude to be towed around by the train companies. So if you wanted to be short train companies, that's a harder trade. To me, the easier trade is to be long in energy, probably, and if there is no strike, I could see crude being $20 higher in a couple of weeks. So that would be my thought on that. 877-927-6648. I'm 80 points in September in Q-Short. Should I stay in a Friday expiration? I don't see any reason for covering a short position for three days. Generally, if I'm good enough to set the hook at the right time, I sit on my hands for three days, because that generally is the best time. Does that mean it will pay off today? No, but the odds are three days. You're going to see a retest of today's low, or you're going to see it significantly broken. I would look at the volume on the close today. You'll see that about 420 from the CBOE. If we've done something like 12 billion shares today, that connotes that we've broken these levels and that we will retest the 3750 area, and I'd want to sit on my hands. But I don't know how many people are wanting to get in front of the Fed or the strike on Friday. So at best, maybe you go sideways and expire at 4,000 on the S&P cash on Friday, but I don't see a lot that's going to change. It was kind of almost ridiculous to listen to CNBC this morning, and literally denying reality was James Kramer. And we've had a lot of requests for this, but I'll go back to 2008 for the Daily Show where we heard, Bring me the head of the false prophet, Jim Kramer. Well, certainly I have yet to see someone that was so far on the wrong side of the market, and then not to say I'm wrong, was move along. In fact, I think one of the best things you can do as a trader is to say I'm wrong today. I may be wrong for a week. I may be wrong for a month, but I've got my stops. But generally, if you're a dancing bearer on TV, I don't know if you get that opportunity to be that nuanced. But if you don't have at least some mental stops out there, you don't take your stops, small stop, which you could have this morning, then you're one day going to take the mother of all stops and become a Walmart greeter. We'll be back in a minute. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. 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Generally, if you're on the wrong side of the market, though, I tend to want to get my cash back as soon as possible. Clear my head and then go into the next trade. If I've sat too long on the wrong side, generally, the market's never been kind to me. But I think at least for the next couple of days, I would sit on my hands even if I'm on the wrong side and see what goes on. But yeah, I don't know if you're going to get it. It's at least going your way. 877-927-6648. Did we get all those? Yesterday, we talked a little bit about the semiconductors. Today, I wanted to get in on Twitter just a little bit. And not so much about Twitter itself, TWTR, but what came out of the hearings today, which was something right out of a John Locar novel. If you don't really know him right off the bat, Day of the Jackal, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, all those great late 70s, 80s Cold War spy books from a guy whose name wasn't John Locar. That was his pen name. He was an actual spy that worked with the guy that wrote James Bond. Saw his rise to fame. Decided to write a little bit more through to the part of actual spy business. And the books are pretty good. I always loved them. The only thing the hearing today didn't have was George Smiley. That's a deep reference for those John Locar fanboys, like me. But certainly, what did we have for Twitter? We found out that they have spies from just about every country in the world, and they ignored them. But that's probably not the big news out of it. The probably the big news was that you have the senator from Massachusetts and many of the ones on the far side of the other aisle, as far as she is on the other side of the other side of the aisle. Talk about and come together on sponsoring bills for oversight for a lot of these companies. So far, what we know about that is they will be organizing it very much like the French do, where the US basically says, you hire your own guys. You tell us that everything's OK at your company and that you're doing all the things that you're supposed to do, and we'll disbelieve you. That's pretty much it. Anyway, a lot of times these things don't go very far, but there's pretty wide acceptance now for censorship on regulation on the right and for security on the left going forward. So I don't think any of these companies are going to be doing well in the near future. Even companies like Apple that have advertised security, we found out that they've been riding dirty, there's a lot of people like to say, on this issue. So as you said yesterday, even Apple seemed rather obnoxious in the way that they were pumping what I thought was bogus information on a server. Somebody in the den said something about there's not web services in China. They have the same thing. It's just not US servers. So and they work fairly well. They're all managed by people from Google and Amazon, too. The only thing difference is that they're located there. So I am not buying that either. That suddenly they had so many people that they crashed everything. China has just as many server farms and web services companies based on the exact same software we use here in the United States. So I'm not going to grant them any special dispensation other than we saw kind of the same thing yesterday. And that was Intel was busy leaking their latest chip technology well in advance of anything coming out. And that always has me thinking about something I haven't gotten yet to today. But I want to because announcing products way in advance has been kind of a no-no for technology for quite a while. Then it's all just a little bit of history repeating. On this day in 18 or 1983, not 1883, Osborn Computer Corporation declares bankruptcy only two years after it started producing the first portable computer. The Osborn one computer industry lore has it that the Osborn effect, i.e. announcing a product well in advance was enough to kill them off. There was also lots of competitive pressure and mismanagement. But generally companies don't die from a single wound, but a perfect storm of them doing stupid stuff. And so when I see people announcing stuff like Intel yesterday, Apple announcing something that I found highly dubious. I was looking fairly closely at a market that was probably ready to turn and not a good way if you were bullish. On this day in 1983, I was actually writing about something else today in a statistics class about technical analysis and why we have a lot of things the way we have them. They go back to the Osborn that didn't have any kind of math co-processor. So a lot of the stuff that we have out here today is colored by how easy it is to compute instead of actually computing it correctly. That stuff still lingers today. Okay, other things going on. Okay, I'll get back to that after I've got to look that up. Okay, TMO, too much, not too much information, TMI to the thermo scientific. Like all of these, these are, if you've been below the three by three for a handful of days in this one, you look for the bounce, you look for it to pull back, and then on the next break back higher, that is the double repo pattern that I like. That is, you come back and get light volume, and then the next push above it keeps you from getting started way too soon and getting squeezed out. So that's it. Time is running out. I didn't know that. What is time running out on? Oh, I've got to go to Arby's apparently. I don't know how I got that email. I will be a pig. Okay, we'll go back and look at this a little bit more. Is there a chance that we'll go back to 585 area by Friday? Don't think so. We'll be back in a minute. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. 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I have a feeling on the Dow it's there because they're looking for weak hands from retail traders. And instead of looking at a decent index like the S&P 500 or the wide Nasdaq composite, they'll look at things like the Nasdaq 100 with six stocks that make up 60% of the entire index or the Dow that's 30, which is 96% institutionally owned. Only about 4% is actually out there. So you'll see some wide swings in the Dow. I think that gets a lot of the retail traders who really don't know what they're doing going. And that's why black boxes are probably set on the Dow trying to shake weak hands. Again, I'm not a big fan of going after a big move like this after news when we'll know we're going to be waiting for additional news. If this was over one and done, but I think everybody is now going to be thinking about the trains on Friday and the Fed next week, whether or not you get a 1% move, you may get a little bit of a bounce out of a 3.25% move. But my bet is that there's at least when we start looking at the numbers, I haven't looked at them quite yet. I'll wait until tomorrow and look at the odds. But my guess is we're going to see better than a 50% chance tomorrow on a 1% move for next Wednesday. That's the Fed, by the way, at 2 p.m. And I believe they're going to have a Gog and Pony presser after it. That starts at 2.30. So you're only going to know what they tell us by 3.15. But I'm going to think that they're fairly hawkish. I don't think that those numbers are going to come anywhere close. As I said, maybe one of the, if you've got to be long, you've got the oil stocks that could be doing well on a, if you're in the right one, not all of them, but if you're in the right one, probably crude numbers on trains because so much more is moved by the train now. And that was, I think, I pay off for William Buffett, who owns a lot of the train companies on that. So you've got so much moved now on train cars instead of by pipeline. That adds about 2 bucks per barrel for a lot of that. But if you're not moving it by rail and you've outlawed pipelines, could we have a huge additional second shock to the market if the train guys actually do go out on strike? So the first barrier to pass is Friday strike. And then the second one is the Fed next Wednesday. I think we could be pushed down for a while going into it. As much as everybody was euphoric going in to the close yesterday, my guess is they're probably going to be that bearish going into the Fed next week. Anyway, yeah, a thousand, about a thousand thousand fifty tends to be a fairly significant number. And I think that could be the reason why. Uh, what else did we want to get to? I think I got some more emails out here. Okay. Let's see about the question about Microsoft. Let's take a look. Oh, I had a question. Where are all the spies? Spies from Saudi Arabia. This is at Twitter. Spies from Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, India. And I'm trying to remember there was two more countries that they had known spies in. And this guy, the whistleblower, wouldn't say where he worked in government. I'm assuming that when you say you work for the government, you're either working for the CIA or the NSA. Since he was in computer security for 30 years, I'm assuming he worked for the NSA, although he did not say. But I think he was busy ratting everybody else out to the to the FBI of all these people that were literally working at the company and using their data all the time. It's kind of a very interesting Mata Hari kind of story for Twitter, but I just thought that you get that in. Yes, they had spies from Oh, and so did I say Saudi Arabia? The spies from Saudi Arabia looking at dissidents in their country. And probably the best quote out here was that he told the CEO that they had a Russian spy in there and he says, you know, they have elections there. So it's a democratic state. What are we supposed to do? Just let them stay because if we get them out, maybe they won't let us in Russia. I mean, you got a lot of but to be a U.S. corporation and say, we're just going to ignore Russian known Russian spies. Like I said, he kind of was in the business for about 30 years. So the guy was quite impressive today. Oh, back to Microsoft already in progress over most of TFNN. If I could actually type the symbol correctly, MST. This is what you're looking for in my double repo pattern. Well, my not mine. Joe DiNappoli kind of pioneered it. I like it. I kind of use a modified version of it. But once you break, here's the bullish version of this. You break down below the three by three after you've been on and you go down for 10, 15 days or up 10, 15 days. In this case, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 days. You get two days above it, you close back below it. Now what you need to do is really see the volume over the next couple of days come back. As I said, I was looking for a retest. I think on Friday we talked about this. I was looking for a retest of 251.94. That's 21 million chairs. You got 16 million. So you're probably going to end up with at least 21 million today. What you need is all the volume to come back out. And then the next close above it actually is the one to buy if you're thinking you're bullish on this and you're trying to buy some kind of e-bottom. But the big thing here is you don't want to anticipate. You do want to wait most of the time for the pop above. If you're planning on using options, you normally have to anticipate that move. But right now you want to test 251.94. It's probably the premier company right now in the NASDAQ as far as being run correctly and lots of cash. Got a wide product margin. You still need a test 251.94 that's September 6th. We'll be back in a minute. 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You're more than likely, not always, but more than likely to get a retest of the lows. Not a reference to marijuana at all. 420 is the time that all the volume is reported by the CBOE for the day. It does follow 20 minutes, so you generally don't get all that in. Don't have much in the way of earnings this week. I think we've got Adobe on Thursday night. I think that's about it. So for the things going to affect the retail news driven trader, trains, and then the Fed next Wednesday. So keep an eye on that. In fact, before we come up to the end of the day here, let's take a look at volume. We've got about 7.7 billion shares right now. So it hasn't been like we've gotten a lot of volume either up or down, so I'm not going to proselytize that volume is telling us that we're either going to hell in a hand basket or right back up to the top in S&P 6000. But certainly we have a market that is volatile and it probably remained volatile. I don't like lows until they've been retested and that would probably tell us 37.50 on a retest and light volume. Maybe we have it. September has always been the worst month to see down drafts in the market, so be careful. Stops are there for a reason. You don't take a small stop. They will take the mother of all stocks. So when you can, not when you have to. We'll see you here tomorrow.