 Welcome traders to the last weekly live market and trade analysis session for 2022. Just as a matter of housekeeping, I will be offline until the 12th of January. That's when the next live market and trade analysis session will be in a new year. Before we jump into today's charts, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most pertinent to today's discussion, the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of those held by Tickmill UK or Tickmill Europe Limited. And so for those of you who are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself. Like I said, my name is Patrick Munley and after I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I had a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with. And some time on my hands, I started day trading the S&P 500, or probably more appropriately at that stage, day gambling. After some early beginners' luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners' luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions, basically giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my personal capital. Say this was a gut-wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. So I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months was a time during which I had not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing and extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality and all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual to becoming a purely process-orientated individual. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, again delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm a recent market expert exclusively providing market and trading announces to TICML clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos for two or three markets that I'm actively tracking for the trading day in front of me. I share these through the TICML Trading View account and on the TICML Expert blog. I also run TICML's E-mini strategy group on Facebook where I post a daily trade plan outlining my pre-market thoughts for the cash trading session ahead in New York, giving my bias for the S&P 500 for the trading day ahead specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have now delivered just over 6,000 points of profit since we launched the group in April 21. The second TICML strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. TICML Futures Trading Telegram Group is a real-time environment for a daily basis I share an in-depth insights analysis and real-time trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the New York cash trading session where traders can essentially see in real-time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a consistent approach to navigating the markets and most importantly the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. Okay, so that gives you a flavour of where it is I'm coming from. Let's jump into today's charts before we get going. As always, if you have any questions or if you have a chart you'd like me to take a look at that I don't cover in my presentation feel free to drop that into the chat and I'll come back to any questions at the end of the session and I'll give you a view on any instruments that you'd like me to take a look at. So S&P 500 e-mini futures contract traded to our target level we're looking for a test of 4128 we've got that this week spike through ran as high as 4170s on that that's softer than expected CPI print and then we got the anticipated reversal I shorted into this spike and eventually took out 95 points from this move to the downside so what we're looking at now is a potential new pattern to emerge initially what we're ideally going to see is three-way corrective move here that would see us potentially test back down into 3940 versus that 4090 swing high so what we'll be looking for here is this type of scenario to play out get a break of the trend line here which ideally would prove to be a false break so if we can get into that 3940 target center from there I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns to re-engage on the long side looking for the next leg to the upside where we'll be thinking about a move up towards the 4200 level as the next upside objective for this move now important to be aware that we have options exploration in the US tomorrow something like 3.9 trillion dollars wherever options are rolling off and the pin price this essentially is the price at which most of that options interest will expire at is the 4000 level so what I'd anticipate is that we will trade around this 4000 level into options exploration and then we could get a push lower into the close on Friday to test that 3940 level so what I've been looking for is as markets open up on Sunday night or we start the cash trading session in New York on Monday any move into that 3940 that acts as support I'll be looking to buy that for a an end of year move higher in terms of stock that so-called Santa rally phenomenon which we will be looking to play out now the caveat is that any break of the support here at 3900 I would suggest all bets are off and we will trade meaningfully lower and when I say meaningfully lower we have a level in the market certainly one that will will attract a degree of interest is going to be what's known as the JP Morgan collar they have a an option structure in the market and that would suggest that we could test down into the 3835 as the next downside objective from there we could then trade meaningfully lower to actually test this prior support zone into the 3700 level so excuse me so the key really heading into the back ends of this week and the beginning of next is going to be this zone here and we will want to see that 3900 at a minimum defended if it breaks I will be looking to engage on the short side looking for a move down to target these key levels to the downside 37 months through monthly projected range support like I say we have that 3835 which is the JP Morgan collar and then below there we'd be thinking about moving back down to 3700 but my first area of interest is going to be as we hold this 4090 3940 we'll see if by a step back in there moving to the NASDAQ similar setup as usual with these equity indexes we tend to get similar scenarios developing across the board so what we're looking at here in the NASDAQ actually a nice midpoint of the channel here coinciding with the equality objective so we have 11,585 as the target zone for this move this corrective move potential corrective move I should say so as the high volume node acts as resistance we look for a move down into this 11,580s we've also got daily projected range support there so again we look for bullish reversal patterns from that area and initially we target a move back up into the pivot there swing high 12,070 and if we get through there then we'll be looking for an extension to the upside to retest certainly think about a retest of these price cycle highs 12,338 similar scenario in terms of the invalidation level here that this invalidation level that I had marked down here was for this target zone target's been hit so we adjust the invalidation level I'm going to use this it's 11,400 area if we take this out on a closing basis I'm going to suggest that we will be looking at a test of the trend channel support down to 10,930 obviously that's it would be a bearish scenario bearish development first port of call is going to be the equality objective do buy a step back in defend that area if they do I want to be on the normal side looking at the Dow Jones another point actually I just want to raise with you or something to make you guys aware of keep an eye on these weekly candles here this if we do take out that 3900 into the close tomorrow that would be an outside reversal from this weekly trend channel resistance we had a key reversal last week we've taken it out taking the stops out above that level and announcing the potential for significant reversal so that would add credence to the downside if we take out that 3900 on a closing basis serving that weekly candle is worth paying attention to moving back to the Dow Jones we are looking at an equality objective for the correction here which would see us test 33,000 33,620 we also have a high volume out here 33,670 so similar scenario what we're watching for is any move into this area which were bullish reversal patterns to be engaged on alongside and then we will be thinking or certainly I'd be looking for a move up into that just ahead of 36,000 to the top side of the channel that we're currently trading in similarly my invalidation level would be a break of the support here at 33,450 again pay attention to this weekly candle close because that is certainly looking ominous at this stage obviously we have two trading sessions to go before that will be confirmed but do pay attention to that and I'll be highlighting that if we do get those outside reversals in future videos heading into next week moving to the DAX do we have here we are looking for a three-wave corrective move to test and hold now support the sport has raised this is the equality objective I took or the symmetry swing I referenced this last week so this is a wave one a wave two low here so we project our wave two from a potential wave three high which we're going to use as the 14,670 so that gives us a symmetry swing support at 13,960 also this prior height before this breakout candle here so any move into this area we want to engage on the long side and we'll be thinking initially five equals one is the minimum upside objective for the move so that should see us trade into 14,800 as the next upside objective for this move in the DAX again though guys I just want to keep you keep this in mind watch this weekly candle close also looking ominous but not as weak as those or the strength of that reversal not to my mind anyway not as strong as the ones that we're potentially seeing in the US equity indexes and to be honest with you the DAX has outperformed the US markets of late so moving to the Nikke we are looking for an equality objective versus our swing high here at 28,720 looking for a test now into 27,165 from there again watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side first port of call is going to be a high volume node 27,935 and then the projected trend channel resistance coming in at 28,000 moving to the nifty this one really has been the leader to the upside certainly breaking out making you cycle highs from that 2020 low the post COVID low there so what we're looking for similar setup again we're looking for an ABC equality objective 18,267 from there we look again for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side the type of scenario we'll be looking for then will be another extension here up through the swing pivot there into and above the prior cycle highs and we would look to make new highs for this move the area I would target here using this big retracement tool so if we do hold the equality objective and let me just change some settings there if we can hold the equality objective what are we doing there we go our target is the 127 extension here 19,200 is going to be our target for the nifty if we hold our support zone here 18,267 moving to the bonds TLT the ETF we have moved into the trend channel support so we're now looking for potential way through lower target zone for the next leg to the upside so I've been looking for any close back through 10870s on the upside okay for our close through there I want to engage on the long side my target for the next leg to the upside is 110,98 as the next upside objective now what we also want to be cognizant of if we do fail the trend channel support what are we looking at well we have an equality objective to measure here which would see us trade into the 10570s so that's another area of interest if we do pull back and take out the trend channel support we look at 10570s the equality objective once again from there we'd be looking for bullish reversal patterns and a breakthrough the trend channel resistance here to target that 110,98 on the upside moving to forex and the dollar index and just shy of our target zone we're looking I'm looking for a 10280, 10270 test so let's just up this here and let's do this so I'm looking for that move into the 10270, 10280 area and from there I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side first of all we're going to look at trend channel resistance 10560s get through there we have the high volume know but ideally what we look for is a retest of this resistance here at 10780s for the dollar index this stage it took a closing breach really of that 10250 to really ignite the downside here and but for now my view is that we will we should hold this support area and see at least a corrected move similar setup obviously in the euro dollar euro dollar traded through our target we eventually got that test of 10620s this week now I'm looking for the potential to see one more high up into this daily and weekly projected range resistance just above 107 as we get into that area and we maintain this momentum divergence those of you here first time it's important if we're going to trade counter trend that we want additional confirmation for momentum so that means prices are making new high we don't get a new high in the momentum study and that gives us an opportunity then to watch for bearish reversal patterns to engage in a counter trend opportunity and the first target for this movie is going to be 104 on the downside sterling just shy about 125 target trade well 12440s so i'm looking for one more push higher here in terms of sterling to test into but fade at that 125 handle and then i'm looking for a three-way corrected move into daily trend channel support just coming in now but just about 120 and there we look to engage on the long side of my target it's going to be a 130 weekly trend line resistance test in terms of sterling moving to the dollar yen whilst we hold 13440s as support i'm looking now for a test of the equality objective versus this corrective pattern to give us a 13880s from there watch for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side looking for a move back down through 13440s through the weekly projected range support and the double bottom 130 360s to an ideal 132 test swissy similar setup really to the dollar index i'm looking for it to just push into this trend channel projected trend transport so 91 80s is the area i wanted to see tested here and watch for bullish reversal patterns there first port of call obviously it's going to be a high volume load and trend channel resistance coming in at 94 50s in terms of the swissy dollar CAD so the dog cad we are looking for a test of the corrective equality objective in terms of the dollar CAD into 13790s so in terms of that trade what we've been looking for here is a trigger will be any move now we don't have a decent trend channel setup there so what i'd actually look for is a move to test and hold support 13490s from there watch for bullish reversal patterns and we engage on the long side looking for a move up into our target zone 13790s the Aussie traded just shy of our 69 target so i'm looking now for the Aussie to any move that tests and holds the midpoint of this channel here 67 20s we look for that move up into the 69 target zone at this stage any loss of the support back to 66 50s will be a bearish development and i'd be thinking initially about move back down into the 65 80s and ultimately a test of trend channel support which will be coming in now around the 65 handle before looking for the next leg higher kiwi dollar traded to our 65 target this week that we were looking for so i'm looking for three-way corrective moving to test trend channel support now 62 30s from there i'm watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and we are then going to be targeted to move up into the high volume know the initially 66 30s and weekly projected trend channel resistance coming in at 67 60s running things out in the commodity markets gold traded into our target zone at the 1830s a nice reaction there $50 move to the downside so i'm now looking for any corrective moves that test and maintain resistance at 1820s to set up a move to target the 1760s silver showing a little bit of relative strength to to gold here i'm looking for us to ultimately test into weekly trend channel resistance 25 20s so any corrective moves that test and hold trend channel support coming in in line with the weekly projected range sport 22 50s would be an opportunity to get in on the long side targeting that $25 test crude traded to our 70 37 target nice bullish reversal there from the double bottom so we now have made the first upside objective back into the 77 50s so i'm looking for any pullbacks that hold support here at 73 40s 73 50s watch for bullish reversal patterns there to add to long positions looking for move up into that way for projected high at $83 and last but not least bitcoin right into our 18 000 target level and i actually tested through our 18 200 upside extension target so i'm looking now for any corrective moves to test and hold 17 200 and from there i'm looking to engage again on the long side i'm looking for a minimum retest of price cycle highest 18 300 and that concludes this week's whistle stop tour of the markets and charts that i'm watching on the levels i'm looking to engage i hope you've found that useful are there any questions between forex and synthetic indices which will you recommend for a beginner uh i really the s and p 500 e mini s the e mini futures or just the s and p 500 it's uh it's the benchmark for for risk sentiment on a global basis and i would suggest getting familiar with that what i'm actually going to do there uh is post the link to the facebook group all you have to do is request access and you can get my daily trade plan and trade levels for the s and p 500 given in that group before the market opens in new york let me get that link for you and you can like i said request access one second there we go should see that link now in the uh in the fate of the to the facebook group uh you can get the uh my daily trade plan give the specific levels i'm looking to trade and my uh my bias for the day ahead i'll also post into the chat the uh trading view ideas stream where i post the daily videos that will also be useful for you guys so that's there can't see any other questions coming through at this stage so there aren't any further questions i'm going to wrap this session up here wrapping the year up 2022 being a very strong year in terms of trading performance personally so uh looking now to rest up and recharge ahead of another year of playing the probabilities for those of you who are here on a weekly basis thank you for your support if you find the content useful uh like i say you can request access to the facebook group follow my trading ideas through trading view and i bid you all a happy holidays and i look forward to seeing you on the 12th of january for the next instalments of the weekly live market and trade analysis session with me patrick monday thanks very much traders and as always plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next year thanks very much